"... a shooting war between NATO and Russia would constitute an existential crisis that some large segment of the planet might not survive. This might mean pressuring Zelensky to accept a negotiated solution that is patently unjust — if it’s even possible. No one wants to say it now, but America would sooner see Ukraine cede some territory than risk all-out war.... The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border. You’d have to think a negotiated alternative that leaves Ukraine partly intact, if that window opens, would be preferable.... [Biden's] job, in the best case, will be to make a negotiated outcome palatable abroad and at home.... Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain, while internationalists in the president’s party will complain that he walked away from human rights.... [I]n a showdown between nuclear powers, that’s what leadership is."
Writes Matt Bai, in "Our cause in Ukraine is inspiring. It probably won’t stay that way" (WaPo).
पोस्ट्स
१३९ टिप्पण्या:
Biden’s job? That fuckhead has never gotten anything right! He’s a total screwup.
I smell a sell-out coming!!!!
Appeasement returns!!!!
Good review of the black pill standard narrative. A staggering number of the comments at the top of the pile seem to be about Donald Trump and how either its his fault for being Putin's joy boy for four years, or how Putin is just a smarter version of Trump.
The focus in the comments seems to be on making sure Trump gets the blame for the inevitable horror that we are about to see unfold. The hive is tightly on message.
My thoughts: "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
Maybe The Ukraine needs to go the way of Kentucky and declare Neutrality
No Russian ties in exchange for No EU ties (and Most Important, no NATO ties)
It's Amazing, how many "experts" are telling Us that,
a) Putin is a CRAZY, INSANE, MANIAC, and a Warpig!
b)There's No Need to Worry about WWIII because any conflict with Russia will be conventional
c) The US will easily PREVAIL in any conventional conflict with the Ruskies
d) Because of US superiority in conventional war; Russians will have NO OPTION but Nukes
e) This means, that (because of 'a') Putin will surrender
Call me brain damaged old biker trash, But i have a Hard time seeing how all that leads to 'e'
Remember when some people were saying that Ukraine shouldn't even resist because Russia will overwhelm it? It wasn't so long ago. Now, apparently, they are saying the Ukrainians shouldn't resist because their resistance is too effective. That most likely scenario he describes may well be today's most likely scenario, but it becomes less the most likely scenario with each passing day.
I wonder, if, in the next couple weeks, Ukraine actually gets the upper hand (unlikely, but increasingly plausible by the day), what will the new reason be for why Ukraine's best move is to surrender?
Is war ever rational? If we concede this one little piece of Ukraine, what is the next thing we concede, and the next? There is always a but when we talk of war, just as there was for Great Britain and France in the 1930s. As John Kerry pointed out we can only hope "Vlad the Putin" considers the impact on Global Warming as he continues his plan to return Russia to greatness as the center of the USSR.
Common sense from Taibbi. How long before he's declared a Putin stooge by commentators?
"a shooting war between NATO and Russia would constitute an existential crisis that some large segment of the planet might not survive."
Of course. We will avoid it at all cost. I. would assume.
"This might mean pressuring Zelensky to accept a negotiated solution that is patently unjust"
Yes. But the question is at what point the cost of that injustice is less than the cost of continued struggle. From a distance, it looks like that point has been passed.
"You’d have to think a negotiated alternative that leaves Ukraine partly intact, if that window opens, would be preferable"
You'd have to think that. Therefore, we should help Zelensky do it.
"Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain"
Not this Republican.
Putin likely underestimated the cost of invasion to him. We underestimate the cost of our hostile response. Commodities markets going crazy, international financial system broken, knock-on effects all over the place, the very rules we prize undermined. What are the people Lebanon going to eat next year? How many millions of refugees will Europe accept?
Long-term, we should focus on China, not Russia--in fact, it would be better to have Russia not be a de facto ally or vassal of China. The ultimate injustice of current international relations is that Ukraine is just a pawn.
Yes, the Bai's of the world are rooting for Ukraine to roll over, just as they were rooting for Czechoslovakia to roll over in 1938. After two years of cowardice in the face of COVID the fearfulness is well-developed. It would be sooo inconvenient if these dumb, deplorable (some are neo-nazis!!) Ukrainians, actually fought hard to keep their country. Why the Russkis are bound to win -- more of a lead-pipe cinch than Hillary! was in 2016 with her Blue Wall (so many more "paths to 270").
The idea that the Russian forces are paper tigers developed after decades of a corrupt society, and have rotted away from the inside is . . . INCONCEIVABLE.
If hoping that Joe Biden could rise to the level of Neville Chamberlain is hoping for "leadership", then one should recall how Chamberlain's tenure in office turned out.
Allow me to rewrite your header . . .
"Yes, the absorption of the USA into Canada and Mexico would be a human tragedy and geopolitical nightmare. But..."
And...a 'geopolitical nightmare' remains exactly that - a geopolitical nightmare! Which still has to be dealt with in the future. Ergo, at some point the useless fools responsible for this mess through 20 years of blinkers, bluster and appeasement will realise we have to get involved and sooner rather than later.
Putin has around 1400 nukes, which he and his foreign secretary have threatened a willingness to use, so we need to ensure all our anti-missile missiles are alert, ready and fully serviced; as we will need to ensure at least 1390 of them don't reach their targets or fully detonate.
[Biden's] job, in the best case, will be to make a negotiated outcome palatable abroad and at home.
Biden could have done that a few months ago and avoided the invasion.
Why didn't he? Misjudgment or something else?
The true test of Biden's leadership will be if he can reverse the stunning open source network attack that has crushed Russia's economy and threatens to turn Russia into North Korea almost overnight. What will satisfy the mob? Withdrawal from Ukraine? Putin deposed? Who knows?
Biden will bravely run away. Riiigght…
Rumor has it Vlad isn’t content with only Ukraine. Stopping at the Polish border isn’t plan A…
---The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border.
The most likely, according to whom? This Wapo scribbler?
If it were so likely, why hasn't it already happened? The Russian effort has shown more weakness than Putin seems to have expected. It has certainly shown the world more weakness than Putin ever wanted anyone to see.
So many armchair generals and presidents keep appearing. Even Stephen Kotkin, vastly better informed than any reporter, seems overeager to step up from professor to strategist. I noticed this while reading more of his discussions online, following the Althouse post. Compared to him, the rhetoric from some reporter is strictly idle chatter.
Wait, Bai is more than a reporter. He is also a screenwriter! Oho -- guess we must take his comments more seriously, then. What was I thinking?
It seems that Russia will pull out of Ukraine in exchange for three Ukrainian concessions:
1) Ukraine never will join NATO
2) Crimea will remain in Russia
3) Donetsk and Luhansk can vote to join Russia
That is not "the absorption of Ukraine into Russia".
Ukraine will be able to develop its language and culture better without those three Russian regions.
Ukraine's political system will be more stable.
In 2013, the system was destabilized because Viktor Yanukovych won the Presidential election by running on a platform of improving Ukraine's relations with Russia. Although he won the election fairly (according to the European Union's observers), he was not allowed to govern normally. His presidency was undermined by Ukrainian zealots in Ukraine's Deep State and by Ukrainian zealots occupying the Kyiv streets for three months.
(President Yanukovych was treated even worse than President Trump was treated in the USA.)
With those three Russian-populated regions gone from Ukraine, there never again will be a Ukrainian President elected like Yanukovych. Whoever wins future Ukrainian elections will be allowed to govern normally.
Aha, the WaPo has discovered the worst-case scenario: an opportunity for Republicans to pounce.
Russian territorial gains in the south, near the Crimea, will be hard to roll back, but I think the obvious solution is to let Russia trade the territory it has taken for expanded boundaries for the two separatist provinces and recognition of their independence. Of course, that assumes that the Russians didn't just massacre the inhabitants of all the villages they took, Soviet-style, in which case they probably wouldn't trade away that territory because it would provide proof of their crimes. So we'll see, I guess.
Oh, and the Ukraine should de-Nazify. Specifically, by disbanding the Azov Battalion and banning its members and supporters from holding public office. This has been a minor objective of US policy vis-a-vis the Ukraine since 2014, as reflected in our 2018 defense budget, which specifically barred our money from going to the Azov Battalion because they are, in fact, Nazis. I don't think it's bad for the Ukraine to cut ties with the Nazis, however courageous they may be on the battlefield, and it will let Russia save some face.
WOW a Post article that makes some sense. I have thought all the Rah Rah go Ukraine from the media and many politician's would just lead to more death and suffering. It would be better to let Ukraine fall fast than turn it into a long bloody proxy.
The US should be looking to stop the war fast. I suspect all that really takes is a commitment from Ukraine and NATO to forbid Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Oh that's OK. While Biden is playing Chamberlain in Europe, he's also working feverishly to supply the Iranians with billions of dollars and remove sanctions on the IRG to allow them to fully develop their nuclear capabilities as well as their terror sponsorships. Just days ago Iran sent missiles into an area where we're building a new consulate. Biden's team responded by promising to hurry up on getting them their money.
There are no words to describe how Democrats think. But if y'all haven't had enough by now, I'm telling you going forward- there should not be another Democrat elected for two generations.
"Our cause in Ukraine is inspiring."
Our?
It's Ukraine's cause. I want us to support it as much as we can without spreading or escalating the war.
"But if we expect the war to end with Putin’s surrender and President Biden basking in praise from Congress and foreign capitals,"
Holy cow. It just never occurred to me to include "President Biden basking in praise" as part of my best-case scenario. I don't mind a bit if the president is praised for decisions he gets right, but this statement strikes me as really bizarre.
"Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain,"
Damn those Republicans. You mean if a third party twists the arm of one country's leader to give up territory to another, in the cause of averting a horrific world war, he'll get compared to Neville Chamberlain? So unfair....
It's not just Biden and Zelensky Putin has to come to terms with, he also has to appease Karen.
Who is this person? He has some sense. Why are they letting him write for WaPo?
[I]n a showdown between nuclear powers, that’s what leadership is."
In the Biden era, leadership is messing things up badly, then reversing course and claiming that one has solved the problems that one created (without really solving them either). Policy today is a kind of Rube Goldberg contraption: asking Russia to get us oil from Iran that we aren't getting from Russia because of the war and aren't producing at home because of the Biden policies that discouraged domestic production, made us dependent on foreign oil, and encouraged Putin to go to war.
My wife ushers at the Overture Center and she did so yesterday for a symphony performance. She reports thar some patrons yesterday were wearing Ukrainian colors and flags. Even stranger, they played the Ukrainian national anthem before the performance.
I guess the war has become a new cause for the good liberals of Madison. I hope Biden lets them down easy. /s
Imagine Matt Bai telling America that Trump’s blundering into letting Putin have half of Ukraine should be called “leadership”.
It’s not easy if you try.
The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border.
That scenario is very unlikely.
The most likely scenario is that Ukraine will accept Russia's three demands (never NATO, Crimea in Russia, referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk), and then Russia will withdraw all its troops from Ukraine.
Translation: I do not want to have to suddenly be pro-military and jingoistic. I do not want my friends to be on the hook for serving in the military since the Right isn't going to fight this battle for me since I was an absolute shit to them for the last 12 years. I do not want to have to take Biden's huge purse of pork and have to 'waste' it on protecting Ukrainian Women and Children. Democrats are in the uncomfortable position to own this entire conflict and no matter what we do, we will look bad.
In any event, Putin will be permanently isolated and weak while the West will be stronger. This is the wake up call to strengthen our allies on the rim of our western mote. Also, reincarnate VOA to carpet bomb Russia and China with the beautiful life free people enjoy in the West.
He was doing well until he got here. " [Biden's] job, in the best case, will be to make a negotiated outcome palatable abroad and at home.... Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain, while internationalists in the president’s party will complain that he walked away from human rights.... [I]n a showdown between nuclear powers, that’s what leadership is.""
We, not America but the world, is at this point because of the immature, unreasoning and partisan hatred for Trump installed a president that is so monumentally incompetent that this all would be comic opera if nuclear weapons weren't involved. Once again. Congratulations Biden voters. You elected, through various illegal means, a senile incontinent pervert and his vastly out of their depth handlers. You should be ashamed but you're to stupidly arrogant to admit this mistake. This Did Not Have To Happen. But you c*nts worked hard to see that it did.
He is short sighted.
Others are watching.
Perhaps Xi is watching in China and saying "Ukraine is toast without 15000 extra antitank weapons, and Taiwan is an island, so won't get that" or perhaps he is seeing "Sanctions are real".
It's not just about Putin anymore. If Ukraine goes, it's open season for aggression in the rest of the world.
We have very little "cause" in the Ukraine. Biden won't be negotiating anything, because who would be asking the US to do this negotiation? The EU will tell Biden, Harris, and Kirby to take a hike. They heard Biden's negotiation skills in Afghanistan: "BIDEN: You know, I am a moment late. But I mean it sincerely. Hey look, I want to make it clear that I am not a military man any more than you are, but I have been meeting with our Pentagon folks, and our national security people, as you have with ours and yours, and as you know and I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of [Ukraine], I believe, is that things aren’t going well in terms of the fight against the [Russians]."
As I've said, if you can't help defend Ukraine because Russia has nukes, then you can't help defend Poland because Russia has nukes.
It's like telling Putin we can't stop your cyber attacks, so here's a list of 16 targets we really really don't want you to target.
The US is complete shit and everyone knows it. Waning power, little influence. Iran bombs an American consulate in Iraq, State Dept. says they didn't mean it, didn't do any damage, and if you have any questions ask the Kurds.
Last week the USAF announced the creation of a new task force. On active duty transgenders and pronouns.
Putin's only check valve right now is China, not The West.
He makes a good point, but how do you expect all my lefty friends on Facebook to relinquish their face diapers and Ukrainian flags in the same month? All I’m saying is give war a chance!!
"[Biden's] job, in the best case, will be to make a negotiated outcome palatable abroad and at home...."
Money.
He's not wrong. You'd think Biden, who casually but seriously proposed the tripartite dismemberment of Iraq, would be pushing for this. But that would require that first, he saw some personal benefit in it, and second, that he was actually in charge.
Clever way to turn a no win situation into a no lose situation for Biden.
Can’t imagine he would ever spin it that way if Trump were the president.
A negotiated settlement?! We haven’t yet used the full economic power of the Western world to punish Putin, and the lefties are ready to capitulate. Let me know when all Russian banks have been denied access to the SWIFT system and Putin’s personal wealth has been confiscated along with that of all his cronies.
The lessons of history are immutable about the results when we placate land-grabbing, power mad despots.
- Krumhorn
The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border
Unless Ukraine starts seriously negotiating, Ukraine might be leveled and Russians may end up on the Polish border. BUT, Mr. Zelensky is going to be alive and well in his Mansion in South Florida or his other mansion in Southern France.
He's not dying for Ukraine. That's why he's talking tough. That's what these sort of leaders do. Kerensky ended up in NYC. The Republican Spanish Leadership ended up in Mexico and Cuba. Jeff Davis didn't "die in the last ditch", and the French leadership in 1940 handed the keys over to Vichy and fled to England and Norht Africa. How many people know that Churchill was NOT going to die on the beaches or the landing fields, but skip off to Canada/USA if England had lost?
Biden could have had that deal in December, or at least tested Putin at his word, instead he chose this war first.
Look at a map of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, and tell me that *any Russian leader* could accept the possibility of NATO doing to Russia what it did to Serbia, and Libya, and Iraq, with weapons systems and troops 700 miles from Moscow, from the Baltic NATO states to the north and Ukraine to the south, and the Black Sea denied by NATO forces, the Arctic denied by Sweden and Norway, and the Pacific an American lake. The war would be over before it started and Russia would either launch it's nukes, or be humiliated. Likely they would go to China on their knees, and between Afghanistan and Russia, China would now enjoy the natural resources to make them the "world hegemon."
In any case, without war, we would be constantly on the brink of nuclear war with the slightest miscalculation. This is not sympathy for Putin, but empathy for Russia's position. If a person doesn't know the difference between empathy and sympathy, I am not sure why they read this blog.
I don't know what people are thinking the world will look like in a year, but whatever happens, it's not going to look like today. This will be thanks to Joe Biden and his moronic letter in September paving the way for Ukraine's entry into NATO. and his refusal to pick up the phone from Putin.
And the absoprtion of Ukraine into Russia would NOT be a human tragedy or geopolitical nightmare. 30% of Ukrainians have Russia as their native tongue. Most Ukrainians speak/understand russians. The two peoples were part of the same nation-state for 400 years before 1992. That's one reason why Putin is being so careful with civilian causualties.
Further, Putin has already made it clear he's NOT going to "absord" the Ukraine. This war is about the Ukraine being neutrialized and giving up small hunks of land on their border. Its not about Ukraine being wiped off the map.
“… Russian troops on the Polish border.”
If you think a little about such pronouncements, basically they are arguments in favor of “the buffer zone” between Russia and NATO. But Russians want Ukraine to be the buffer zone too. So we basically all in agreement!
First of all, Matt Bai probably shouldn't list Pinochet and apartheid as shameful compromises, unless he's trying to insinuate something about Zelensky. Second of all, he's a bigger idiot than I thought he was. If the Matt Bais think that Russia is just going to accept total Western sanctions in exchange for a quarter of Ukraine, then they've been mainlining the hasbara with far too much sincerity. Unless Putin wants to be the bitch of the banking cartel, he pretty much has to force the Western powers to give Russia their currency reserves back for keeps. I previously believed that only a tactical nuclear strike could truly accomplish that, but Putin might settle for encircling Lviv in a few weeks, and threatening to completely destroy it if the West doesn't capitulate.
And before the usual Greek chorus chimes in about MAD: bro, what do you think the current round of sanctions are accomplishing? Putin has correctly concluded that the West is in thrall to a psychotic and Satanic ethno-cult desperate to re-enact Masada, and he's been very clear on one thing: he doesn't see any value in a world without Russia. Even if you conclude the Western nations can rebuild from having all of their major cities nuked, and it would be no sure thing, the nature of Western politics being dominated by well-armed and newly impoverished rural folk will drastically change the nature of all Western governments, for obvious reasons.
“… Russian troops on the Polish border.”
If you think a little about such pronouncements, basically they are arguments in favor of “the buffer zone” between Russia and NATO. But Russians want Ukraine to be the buffer zone too. So we basically all in agreement!
Why would any Ukrainian trust anything coming from the US, EU or NATO? They negotiated the giving up of nuclear weapons and now look at Ukraine. Even Donald Trump could not be relied on, because any assurances would depend on the untrustworthy US career bureaucrats to continue.
I never thought Neville Chamberlain would make a comeback as a cultural avatar. I think it is because almost everyone is dead who lived through those times.
Putin is not Hitler. Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia. But Poland is still Poland. We need to be clear about where the lines are.
As an interesting side note, William Barr in his book says, regarding Trump's call with Zelensky and the first impeachment, that Ukraine was so corrupt and so full of contending forces that it was impossible to sort out and evaluate any information coming from there. Everything was spun to promote one agenda or another. He viewed Ukraine as a trap, as did then-President Trump, although Trump was not cautious enough. (He says Giuliani was in waters over his head there.)
I don't see Bai -- or the many people here advocating the same thing -- volunteering to go personally surrender themselves to Russian oppression, destruction and death.
When they go and sacrifice themselves, then they can speak of other people being sacrificed.
Setting policy through polling. We’ve our own clowns in the White House to deal with.
So the Democrats are floating a trial balloon of outright surrender.
I am not surprised.
Good to know that immediate surrender is the go-to move of such people. Makes one want to attack them, have them surrender, and not have to put up with them any more.
Oh goody! A "How to be a leader" piece from WaPo for Biden, complete with predicted responses.
So tell us WaPo, if "America would sooner see Ukraine cede some territory than risk all-out war...," how would we feel about Poland ceding some territory? How would we feel about ceding Alaska? If Putin has his way with Ukraine, why stop?
BTW, who gave QuidProJoe the authority to "lead" this deal and why would anyone trust him?
So Bai thinks “it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border.” That’s not the end. That’s the beginning of a Ukraine insurgency, with a government in exile in Poland, supported by Western arms, money, intelligence, and the continuation of sanctions, for the next ten or twenty years or so until the Russians are forced out. Think of it as the Vietnam War in reverse.
Matt Bai is about as qualified to predict "most likely" outcomes, and to advise world leaders on grand strategery, as your average hack.
I was astounded to hear a couple of foreign-policy hawks of the neocon persuasion casually entertain the upsides of tactical nuclear war while making their case for declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It’s clear Russian conventional forces are going nowhere; if they crossed into a NATO country they would be instantly destroyed like the Iraqi army on the Highway of Death. Two of the oldest principles of strategy are to not intervene when your enemy is in the process of destroying himself, and to realize the greatest victories are achieved when you never fire a shot.
Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain,
No, Biden is the dead Chamberlain. Useless and unable to do anything useful until the instructions are put before him. Who wrote those 17 executive orders he signed on Inauguration Day?
Can someone explain why the conventional wisdom is that Russia will win. Ukraine has more fighters (counting the 10 million plus men between the age of 18-60), an unlimited supply of Western weapons, technology, and intelligence, knowledge of the terrain, and a highly motivated population. Everyone says that so far Russia has drastically underperformed.
What am I missing?
It was easier the last time around, when the USSR presented the world with a fait accompli, and there was no opportunity for handwringing about whether to rescue Ukraine. We just drew the line in Germany and crossed our fingers that it would hold.
Shorter Bai: Human tragedy and geopolitical nightmares is the price we must pay for Progressive leadership.
A rather longwinded way to say better red than dead isn't it?
"...it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border."
There's no reason to think "it ends" there. Russia threatens nuclear war and we appease by dismembering Czechoslovakia, oh sorry, Ukraine and then, poof, no more war? Then Russia wants the rest of Ukraine and goes in and grabs it, and Mr. Chamberlain, oh sorry, correct-pronoun-Biden-Harris, says, stop? Putin continues on and we get "Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border" anyhow, after our appeasement. And it ends there? Where did Hitler stop? Where did Imperial Russia stop? and where did the Soviets stop? What if Russia wants a strip of Poland to end "provocations?" Should we risk nuclear war for 10 miles of Poland? Recognize that Putin is coming after us and it will be easier to say "Stand with Ukraine" because we want allies like that. Or should we wait till we're alone?
Moreover Ukraine has chances still. Here's an assessment page,
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13
"Yes, the absorption of Ukraine into Russia would be a human tragedy and geopolitical nightmare but ..."
Replace Ukraine in the above statement with Georgia. Or Moldova. Or Armenia or Azerbaijan. Or Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Those last three will trigger a treaty bound response. Then what? Do we just say "Yes, the absorption etc etc etc"?
I don't pretend to know the answers here, but let's also not pretend that Putin and Xi aren't weighing their next moves against what the west shows them now.
Writes Matt Bai, in "Our cause in Ukraine is inspiring. It probably won’t stay that way" (WaPo).
"Our Cause"
These douchey pieces of shit aren't doing anything but talking. Get over there and fight Russia yourself or shut up.
You are doing nothing but pretending you care so you can attack your political opponents here in the US.
In other words surrender.
Matt Bai, moving the goalposts so a takeover by Russia of the Ukraine can look like a Biden win. But at least this way he'll still get White House access.
Good thing Biden is as sharp as a tack, and has a 40-year record of glittering accomplishments in foreign policy.
Oh, wait...
A human tragedy? A geopolitical nightmare? What would the absorption of Ukraine into the EU be?
If it's a choice between accepting a compromise of Ukrainian sovereignty or seriously risking a shooting war between nuclear powers, then most sane people would choose the former. During the Cold War, the West accepted many such things in an effort to avoid Armageddon. For example, the Soviet invasion of Hungary and the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia were both accepted as the price for peace.
That doesn't mean we have to make it easy on the Russians though. The higher the price they pay, the less palatable such actions will be in the future. In fact, the price they are paying in the present may already be too large for them to contemplate further military actions.
In the end, the Russians will have to back off and the Ukrainians will have to compromise if for no other reason than to give Putin a face saving way out. As the author suggests, it stinks and is unfair, but that's life in a world with nuclear weapons.
Use Finland's winter war with the USSR as a reference here. They were invaded, they fought courageously, and they lost parts of their country, with the attending refugee crisis.
And afterwards, they balanced their foreign policy to appease the USSR.
But they also survived, and prospered.
Let's hope that Ukraine is able to see the wisdom in this.
My father researched Mutually Assured Destruction in a think tank in the early 60's for the DOD. I grew up with a bomb shelter dug into our basement. As a consequence, I have been very cautious about any Nato role in Ukraine.
However, if Putin is really going to send Syrians to fight in the Ukraine, then sending Nato's own "little green men", not regular troops, would not be a Nato escalation. It works, I think, only if the West couches it as individuals responding to the introduction of Syrians.
It might be worth the gamble. What say you all?
"Further, Putin has already made it clear he's NOT going to "absord" the Ukraine."
Uhhhhh.......no. Putin has made it clear his goal is the COMPLETE absorption of Ukraine into the New Russian Empire. He does not accept Ukraine's existence as a separate entity at all.
He's only said so in almost every speech where he touches on the topic. Anything else is Western diplo-spin.
I'd recommend that we take him at his word at this point. He's an expansionist ethno-nationalist with an old empire he wants to re-assemble. The only difference between his vision and Hitler's was Hitler blamed the Jews and removed them as a "problem" for modern day Russia to solve (with a small assist from the Soviets in the 80s). Putin wants some lebensraum, and it just so happens to be the same lebensraum the Tsars and Hitler both wanted in their times.
jim5301 said...
Can someone explain why the conventional wisdom is that Russia will win. Ukraine has more fighters (counting the 10 million plus men between the age of 18-60), an unlimited supply of Western weapons, technology, and intelligence, knowledge of the terrain, and a highly motivated population. Everyone says that so far Russia has drastically underperformed.
What am I missing?
The problem is your sources of information.
They are bad.
Nobody is winning this war. This war is a disaster for everyone in the world except the WEF and the Biden Regime.
It was completely avoidable. It is causing massive destruction and people are dying so Joe Biden and his supporters.
The food riots start next.
Althouse, it would be interesting to see a poll of your readers who seem split along different lines than in most situations.
I'd keep it simple with a forced choice as in "Who do you want to win, pick one - Russia or Ukraine?
The most likely event is that Putin gets ed-tu'd. If this thing drags on for another week the way its been going, that's what I'm watching for.
*et-tu'd!!
tim in vermont,
I do know the difference between empathy and sympathy. But this:
"Biden could have had that deal in December...instead he chose this war first."
carries empathy too far. Putin chose to build up forces over months and then invade. To tell bald-faced lies about military readiness exercises right up until the go order was given. The kind of lies where they know they're lying, and they know we know: So what are you going to do about it?
I don't have to like Biden to say this wasn't his idea. You want to blame the U.S. and this administration for some "factors leading up to," that could be an engaging discussion to have. But I don't accept this framing where it's always the fault of Russias' neighbors, and of sinister forces beyond, when Russia's neighbors get themselves invaded by Russians.
"It might be worth the gamble. What say you all?"
Might turn out like it just did..
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1503096116039938049
jim5301 said...
Can someone explain why the conventional wisdom is that Russia will win. Ukraine has more fighters (counting the 10 million plus men between the age of 18-60), an unlimited supply of Western weapons, technology, and intelligence, knowledge of the terrain, and a highly motivated population. Everyone says that so far Russia has drastically underperformed.
What am I missing?
144 million Russians vs. 41 million Ukrainians. Someone brought up the Winter War with Finland. The Soviets got tiny territorial gains and forced Finland to change its foreign policy, but they took 5X the number of casualties that the Finns took. (Approx. 25,000 Finns vs. 125,000 Soviets) The Russians do not care about loss of life when it comes to war, so the thought is that they will eventually grind the Ukrainians down over time as they can easily replace manpower and the Ukrainians can't.
Douglas B. Levene said...
So Bai thinks “it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border.” That’s not the end. That’s the beginning of a Ukraine insurgency, with a government in exile in Poland, supported by Western arms, money, intelligence, and the continuation of sanctions, for the next ten or twenty years or so until the Russians are forced out. Think of it as the Vietnam War in reverse.
Not going to happen, and this is why
Browndog said...
As I've said, if you can't help defend Ukraine because Russia has nukes, then you can't help defend Poland because Russia has nukes. (I've been looking for a succinct way to say what I've been thinking and this is it)
In your hypothetical, when roads and trucks inside Poland start blowing up mysteriously and Ukrainian officials in Poland start getting murdered, exactly what is NATO going to do that they aren't already avoiding because Putin has got nukes?
And no, Article 5 is not 'iron clad' about everybody responding to any attack on another NATO member by attacking the aggressor. Read it with a lawyer.
'Our?'
I have noticed this, much to my annoyance.
Pundits and even newscasters using 'We' when speaking of the war.
'We are going to win.'
'We have the moral high ground.'
Etc., etc.
Cue the Lone Ranger/Tonto joke...
Ukraine’s government and businessmen have been playing footsie with Democrats, and most especially the Bidens, for years. Letting Russia go in and clean out all the evidence in exchange for a part or all of Ukraine is what you can expect when involving yourself in the corruption of American politicians. Too bad for innocent Ukrainian civilians.
"So what are you going to do about it?"
What would I do if the Crips were planning a hit on the Bloods? Get out of the way.
"Can someone explain why the conventional wisdom is that Russia will win. Ukraine has more fighters (counting the 10 million plus men between the age of 18-60), an unlimited supply of Western weapons, technology, and intelligence, knowledge of the terrain, and a highly motivated population."
Except "Highly motivated" "Fighters" with ZERO military training and no modern state of art weapons are bascially worthless. I suppose the Ukrainians could win, if the West starting pouring tanks, Aircraft, and small arms into the Ukraine AND russia sat by and did nothing AND waited around for 3 months while the Ukrainians trained everybody on how to use all those weapons, and organized them into battalions, divisions, etc.
And of course, the Russians also "Know the Terrain" since it was part of Russia for 500 years. And the Ukrainian population is NOT "highly motivated", since 30% are basically Russians, and there's little ethnic hatred between Ukrainians and Russians
Uninspired. 32... 33 trimesters to offer reconciliation, remediation, and stop assaults on Ukrainians by forces from and aligned with the post-coup regime in Kiev. 32... 33 trimesters to open and/or document the joint Ukrainian/American "Wuhan" enterprise. Perhaps a JCPOA without betraying the People's protests, without unilaterally reordered/redistributed claims, without the implicit justification of transnational terrorism, too. Not another Tripoli, another Cairo, another Damascus, another Kabul, another Kiev. A Slavic Spring in the Spring series with "benefits". Reconcile.
We really need to form a "Keyboard warrior battalion" and send it to Ukraine to fight. The Colonel could be Mitt Romney. Executive officer - Lindsey Graham. Chief of Staff - bill Kristol.
I'm sure 1000 men and women with big mouths, and bigger egos would save Kiev and win the war.
So the Democrats are floating a trial balloon of outright surrender.
Let's be honest folks. There have been PLENTY of people here and throughout the interwebs who call themselves conservative, libertarian, Republican, etc. who have been screaming for SURRENDER and "none of our business" and other disgusting isolationist, anti-globalist conspiracy nutjob things since the very first day.
Ukraine has...an unlimited supply of Western weapons
Not really. Those anti-armor weapons are excellent up close, but they don't do much good against rockets and artillery fired from miles and miles away, which is what Russia is using for its war crime destruction of civilian areas.
That's why Ukraine is in great need of weapons that can project power, like some aircraft, to destroy those batteries.
tim in vermont,
Opening moves only.
Blogger Howard said...
In any event, Putin will be permanently isolated and weak while the West will be stronger.
Posted by someone with the Democrat version of economics in his head. "Modern Monetary Theory." Spend to get inflation down.
My father researched Mutually Assured Destruction in a think tank in the early 60's for the DOD
The problem is that while Putin is threatening the West with its assured destruction, Biden is worried about the West's mutually assured destruction. So he backs down. And tells Putin that he's backing down and that the U.S. will never, ever, ever, ever, ever get in a fight with Russia.
One approaches it from a position of strength, the other from a position of fear and weakness.
The problem is that, deep down, Putin is NOT a tough guy and if he was stood up to, or rather if he was stood up to before he committed himself, then he would back down. But why cave if Biden is going to beat him to it?
Ha. We are dealing with matters of geopolitics and war and nuclear death, and someone starts talking about lawyers.
Ha.
I think we will find out in a couple of days who is lying. The Russian propaganda sources say that they have surrounded much much of the main Ukrainian Army's mechanized forces, and are demanding a surrender, but plan to crush the Nazi Azov Battalion without quarter or mercy.
Ukraine says it's all going swimmingly and soon the Biden family and the Clintons and their neocon enablers will be able to loot the Kremlin. There are Russian helicopters in Odessa, maybe to negotiate a surrender of that city, who knows?
Can anybody who says that Putin was a madman to do this explain to me why he wouldn't see the situation just as I described? Include in your answer the aggressive actions that NATO has taken against former Russian clients like Libya.
You can watch this Interview with Putin to guide your answer.
I hope that in a year we will be looking back on this as an unalloyed American victory, in peace and prosperity, with a new leader of a humiliated Russia who is happy to sheepishly come back into the fold and submit his country, well why not, her country, to the mercy of the Western financial system and return to dealing in American dollars that can, of course, be disappeared at the first sign of Western displeasure, as if Russia were no better than x number of Canadian truckers.
I can see Ukraine accepting a peace deal in which Ukraine acquiesces to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. They don’t have a realistic hope of retaking Crimea from Russia at this point, and NATO is not willing to fight for Crimea. But what will Ukraine get in return? If Ukraine has to give up their sovereign right to enter alliances, they might as well keep fighting.
Funny how these contradictions keep turning up.
The journalist was probably shot and killed by Ukrainans, not Russians.
and there's little ethnic hatred between Ukrainians and Russians
There is now.
I believe there are 195 countries in the world. Isn't it an odd coincidence that it happens to be that the one country that the Biden family is believed to have corrupt connections with, is the one country where we seem to be pretty close to a shooting war? Up until the fictional Trump investigation, has Ukraine ever been in the news more than once or twice a year as a minor player in the world? Is there anyone in the mainstream media that has an f-ing curiosity at all. Inquiring minds want to know.....
Also, if I was Zelensky, the last place I would want to escape to is the US and be under the Biden family protection. At least without making a video that says - "I am not suicidal."
there's little ethnic hatred between Ukrainians and Russians
That's true, thus the EU-certified democratic election that prompted, accelerated the progress of the 2014 coup, the Slavic Spring.
Re: Browndog:
As I've said, if you can't help defend Ukraine because Russia has nukes, then you can't help defend Poland because Russia has nukes.
This was a concern the Western European powers had during the 1970s, that the United States might not be willing to retaliate against a Soviet nuclear attack on Western Europe only, not the United States:
For strategic deterrence—holding the Soviet homeland at risk—NATO relied on the promise of extended protection by US intercontinental weapons, but the Europeans were not certain the US would use them in response to a limited attack.
So this is not a new problem. The current solution, which we see in South Korea and Japan, is to pre-position American troops where they will be caught up in an attack -- the "tripwire" strategy:
Almost 5,000 more American troops have poured into the southeastern towns of Poland on the border with western Ukraine since Russia began amassing hundreds of thousands of soldiers along Ukraine’s borders earlier this year.
The movement doubled the number of NATO troops typically stationed here and is now the highest concentration of American forces to move into Poland since the end of World War II.
I don't know how many soldiers we have in Poland now -- read literally, the above suggests ~10,000, which would probably be substantial enough to serve as a deterrent, where a couple hundred might not. Would Russia be willing to use nuclear weapons against US troops? Probably not, even with Biden in office. So Russia can't credibly threaten nuclear escalation against Poland.
But in contrast, the administration withdrew US troops from the Ukraine in advance of the potential Russian invasion, signalling that our government did not intend to directly contest Russian intervention in the Ukraine:
WASHINGTON – Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered U.S. troops who deployed to Ukraine last year to leave the country and reposition elsewhere in Europe.
The new marching order comes as an estimated 100,000 Russian troops equipped with advanced weaponry line Ukraine's eastern border and the northern border with Belarus, a Moscow ally.
I know the official statement quoted in the article says the opposite, but I think Russia correctly understood that removing our military and pulling back embassy staff was intended to eliminate potential triggers for US intervention. In the Ukraine, we're constrained by the choices we already made. We could certainly flip flop on this, but after we carefully moved ourselves out of Russia's way, there's a much greater risk of escalation if we reverse course. The situation in Poland is very different. The situation in the Baltics . . in-between?
Looks like the word has gone out that a deal is gonna be made. You normies will be the last to know.
"Zelensky said in an interview yesterday that he is now cooling to the idea of joining NATO. He says NATO doesn't want them....Therefore, why not make a deal to stay neutral and get some of his country back." -@KimDozier on reasons for optimism in talks between Ukraine & Russia
“Oh, and the Ukraine should de-Nazify. Specifically, by disbanding the Azov Battalion and banning its members and supporters from holding public office. This has been a minor objective of US policy vis-a-vis the Ukraine since 2014, as reflected in our 2018 defense budget, which specifically barred our money from going to the Azov Battalion because they are, in fact, Nazis. I don't think it's bad for the Ukraine to cut ties with the Nazis, however courageous they may be on the battlefield, and it will let Russia save some face.”
What needs to be remembered is that the original reason that the Nazis existed was as a counter to Russian/Soviet communist socialism. As a note - that is where AntiFA came from - they were a Soviet front organization competing with the Nazis for German hearts and minds. My view is that the rise of neo Nazis in Ukraine is directly because of this. They are essentially anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalists. And, no, the Real Nazis were really no worse than the Soviets, in terms of brutality. Looking back, maybe the world may have been better off if we hadn’t gone to war against the Nazis in alliance with the Soviets, and convinced the British to stand back with us. Hitler believed the British to be a kindred race, not like the filthy Slavs running the USSR (of course, this turned out to be a problem with the Slavs in Ukraine, when they finally figured this out). Without our war material, our thousands of trucks, tanks, etc, the Soviets would have had a much harder time throwing the Germans back. But that option disappeared right after Pearl Harbor, when Germany (IMHO stupidly) declared war on the US.
@Jim5301
Curious why you think there is an unlimited supply of Western weapons, because it seems that supply is quite limited both in quantity and type. I'm not seeing Western forces claiming to be allies or willing to do more than send purely defensive weapons. Whatever advantage Ukraine may have had in technology has been taken out as that is the one thing the Russians seemed to have done right in the first two weeks.
And the other things pointed out above about Russian human resources, care about those resources, and Ukraine training.
Ukraine could win and certainly has won some battles, but the phrase "won the battle but lost the war" is commonly used because it happens quite often. The Battle of the Bulge is about Germany pushing back the US Army as it moved across France and into Germany, but ultimately Germany still lost the war. I'd like to see Ukraine get a peace agreement that retains its borders, but I doubt it will happen. As the war continues, the likelihood lessens that Ukraine can broker a peace and remain a country.
The most likely scenario involves Putin unleashing savagery on the country to possess it, and it ends with Ukraine leveled, Zelensky dead and Russian troops on the Polish border.
It's amazing that supposedly educated people appear not to be aware of it, but Poland and modern Russia already share a 232 km (144 mile) border — the frontier separating Poland from the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad (a.k.a. the former historic German region of East Prussia). Kaliningrad as it is today constitutes an enclave in northern Europe separate from mainland Russia, but since it has an area about 3/4ths the size of (say) the modern state of Israel, this means that though relatively tiny for a nation, it's obviously big enough to contain large armies, airfields, nuclear-tipped missiles, etc., et al. — and indeed does (at least for some of those things). Kaliningrad serves Russia's aircraft carrier and army transport into northern Europe, and particularly Poland.
rcocean says "there's little ethnic hatred between Ukrainians and Russians."
That was then. Putin is doing his best to change it.
As to Russians not caring about human life, nonsense. Their leaders usually don't, but one reason the Sovs had to take half a Finnish loaf was that morale in the Red Army was going to shit. That didn't change for many until the Nazis proved even more murderous.
Funny how these things work.
The focus in the comments seems to be on making sure Trump gets the blame for the inevitable horror that we are about to see unfold.
And that's exactly why I've ditched all my prior left-wing and NeverTrump contacts. Including my parents.
They're blaming Trump for something that DIDN'T happen during his term, but DID happen under Biden.
Fuck them.
It seems that some of our lefty trolls want to make the Russia-Ukraine war into a political battle between liberals and conservatives. That makes no sense.
Plenty of American liberals and conservatives do not want us to get too involved. Neo-cons and Deep Staters probably want a greater involvement because of the opportunity for greater graft.
I do not know who are the good guys in the battle, but I am old enough to remember when Soviets were thought of very positively by American liberals.
From The Kiev Independent:
Russian state TV interrupted by "No War" protest.
During the “Vremya” news program on Russia’s main TV channel, Maria Ovsyannikova, a Channel One employee, rushed in front of the camera with a poster saying “stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda.”
Meanwhile, many people have been arrested at Red Square. One for holding a completely blank sign.
Just a historical note: Ukraine has not been part of Russia for 500 years. Historians consider Zaporozhian Cossacks to be the first purely Ukrainian society. As aproto-state nation, it fought for the right to exist, develop, and resist hostile encroachments. The Cossack army created its own, uniquely developed state-administrative structure, which fundamentally different from similar structures of neighboring states. They received foreign ambassadors, concluded international agreements, and so on.
And of course remember how Stalin manage to strave millions of them. This invasion seems to have increased a sense of Ukraine identity in this imperfect country of corruption at the top but now fought for by those in the middle and the bottom.
Pundits and even newscasters using 'We' when speaking of the war.
don't forget, these are the newscasters that had to be 'objective' during the iraq war..
because 'one man's terrorist, is a newscasters Hero'
NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...
The Russians do not care about loss of life when it comes to war, so the thought is that they will eventually grind the Ukrainians down over time as they can easily replace manpower and the Ukrainians can't.
Remember! This is EXACTLY what NorthOfTheOneOhOne said about the Russians in Afghanistan too!
The people of Russia have never known freedom and liberty. They are a nation of slaves. They exchanged their jarls for voivods and then for princes and for kings, and they exchanged those for emperors and tzars, and after that just a rotten line of scurvy murderers like Lenin and Stalin et al. They produced works of art but never thought. Every idea they ever had they stole from someone. The ideas of the Greeks, the Republic, the French Revolution, great thinkers and philosophers who sprang up to debate morality and ethics and the greater human weal, these were all foreign to them then and just as foreign now.
They have warred and slaughtered their way across all their neighbors repeatedly and have consigned millions to mass graves. They are a warlike, hateful and paranoid people; like the scorpion it's in their nature for a long time now. Their entire empire is built on lies and murder.
They will never stop. Never. They will terrorize the world and kill millions forever until their paranoid minds decide there is no one left to threaten Mother Russia, or no one else left at all. They need to be conquered, subjugated and partitioned.
The best way out of all this is to nuke Moscow and immediately demand unconditional surrender.
I mean I would have nuked Moscow the very first chance I could regardless of what else was going on just to put an end to that festering pustule they call a nation but in reality has been nothing but a virulent cancer on civilization.
If humanity cannot stop a tyrant from enslaving millions and killing thousands of people on a whim then it deserves what it gets.
I expect the Biden-Harris team to end up with the worst possible outcome short of nuclear war. And that's being optimistic and hopeful.
To cut to the chase, Bai is describing an America First outcome worthy of Donald Trump: Give what help you can without getting truly involved; never die for someone else’s problems. C'est chacun sa merde.
I am not sure why I should care about Matt Bai's opinion on this matter. Looking up his Wikipedia article, it appears he has done the typical journalist rounds: Columbia's Graduate School of Journalism, Boston Globe, Newsweek, New York Times Magazine, Yahoo! News, Washington Post. Basically, he has been part of numerous narrative-based news organization, places where left-wingers mingle and bubble and pat each other on the back while avoiding actual journalism at all costs. So, basically, he is a self-appointed expert of the "elite" class. Pass.
To make a proper assessment of how to conclude this war, you need to understand what Putin is thinking. Currently, Putin is acting a lot different than the Putin of old to the point of being borderline erratic. If you give Putin what he wants, will that satisfy him? Will he take it as a sign of weakness to take another bite? Does he even know? Does he even have a good understanding of what is going on right now? This is why foreign policy should be based on deterrence. It is a lot easier to address the war that has not started. The Obama foreign policy was based all about weakness, which went badly, and now we get Biden's version of it with added stupidity and senility.
Say her name: Marina Ovsyannikova, who was arrested after telling Russian TV viewers not to believe the propaganda.
In a prerecorded message, she made the following remarks: “What is happening in Ukraine is a crime. And Russia is the aggressor here. And responsibility for this aggression rests on the conscience of a single man: Vladimir Putin. My father is Ukrainian. My mother is Russian. And they’ve never been enemies. And this necklace I’m wearing is a symbol of that fact that Russia must immediately end this fratricidal war. And our fraternal peoples will still be able to make peace. Unfortunately, I’ve spent many of the last few years working for Channel One, doing Kremlin propaganda, and I’m deeply ashamed of this. Ashamed that I allowed lies to come from the TV screen. Ashamed that I allowed the zombification of Russian people. We were silent in 2014 when all this had just started. We didn’t protest when the Kremlin poisoned Navalny. We just silently watched this anti-human regime at work. And now the whole world has turned its back on us. And the next 10 generations won’t wash away the stain of this fratricidal war. We Russians are thinking and intelligent people. It’s in our power alone to stop all this madness. Go protest. Don’t be afraid of anything. They can’t lock us all away.”
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503461948993716224
Shorter article: Surrender President Benes!"
From the ones who've said for the last 2 years "If it only saves one life". This is WAR.
Can't hug yer kids with nuclear arms! How's yer Raytheon stock doin? Cue the Edwin Starr tune.
Tim in Vermont.
Let's do a little thought experiment. If NATO were to disappear tomorrow with all its cooperation and interconnected logistics and arms, What do you suppose Putin would do? What is he doing now? How did Ukraine provoke Russia?
I'll tell you. Russia would be in Warsaw in two weeks. The Baltic states would cease to exist,
and Germany would be mobilizing. Why? Because, Putin, the tsar of Russia has absolute power and conquest is what Putin wants. His fevered dreams of the former Soviet Union.
Now Imagine a Russia without Putin and his dreams of Mother Russia and the former soviet state. What would NATO do?
Nothing.
Putin does not fear NATO. Putin wants NATO unsure on what to about Putin. He has succeeded in making NATO second guess itself and that has given him the freedom to act.
The one thing he didn't take into consideration was that Ukrainians don't want to be a conquered people.
Except "Highly motivated" "Fighters" with ZERO military training and no modern state of art weapons are bascially worthless.
@rcocean, point of information. Taliban kicked out asses, did they not?
Just look at some of the factors. Russia outnumbers the Ukraine - yes, but Russia is already hiring Syrians and other foreign mercenaries. As if its own enormous Army was ... untrained? ... unreliable?
General Mud is fighting for Ukraine right now. And when the land firms up it will be time to plant wheat in the Ukraine. The Mid-East and the Chinese, the world in general needs the Ukrainian farmers to plant in peace.
The Ukraine and Kiev in particular is where major religious Russian centers exist. Putin has a propaganda initiative going. in which he presents Russia as the defender of Orthodox Christianity. Leveling major Orthodox Russian shrines wouldn't have a good look in terms of that Kremlin playbook.
It's hard to say how effective the kind of weapons the Ukrainians have are in causing attrition. Are the Russians re-organizing or stuck?
The Ukrainians decided to fight because they know what it's like to be under Russia. It's not up to us to go and say that out of concern for them they should surrender.
Looking at some other comments I would remind people that the foundational epic of the West, The Iliad, starts with a dispute in which the civil authority is accused by the soldiers of being solely interested in money which it grabs after battles and takes from those doing the actual fighting.
Adding to my comment from 6:48, in contrast to American weaponry the AK-47 is designed to be used by untrained peasants. It sacrifices accuracy for being able to continue firing after not being properly cleaned way past the point where M-16s and M-4s would be jammed shut, and its ability to be fired on full auto means that an untrained fighter can send "spray and pray" bullets at the enemy, with a high likelihood of hitting someone or something.
I read that all actual Russian training exercises end with a commander using tactical nukes. It's built into their mindset. It will take someone in the Russian chain of authority to prevent it.
Any Putin victory in Ukraine is going to be Pyrrhic. Any more victories like a theoretical Ukrainian victory will devastate the Russian army. They will be undone.
"Republicans will scream that Biden is the new Neville Chamberlain"
No, Biden is a Vidkun Quisling, a leader that sells out his country.
Chamberlain was not a traitor, just deluded by Hitler's charm. Putin has bought Biden, lock, stock and barrel. And, Biden being an honest politician, has stayed bought.
The Russian conscript army is already losing momentum, and has been from almost the start. Will they still be able to overwhelm the Ukrainians? I used to assume so, but now I doubt it. But suppose they do? Remember what happened after Santa Anna defeated the defenders of the Alamo? Does Mexico own Texas? No, and Russia won't own Ukraine. Show me I'm wrong, Putin.
"Except "Highly motivated" "Fighters" with ZERO military training and no modern state of art weapons are bascially worthless."
The partisans who harassed the Germans during their invasion of the Soviet Union were exactly those kind of people. As were the Afghan rebels who kicked the British, the Russians, and finally the US out of their little patch of paradise. The Ukraine is a pretty big place, not the kind of country you can really pacify if the locals take your invading their homeland personally.
"there's little ethnic hatred between Ukrainians and Russians."
You guys are so ignorant of Ukraine, it's amazing. Ukrainians have been shelling Russians in Ukraine since the US backed coup in 2014. Imagine if Russia backed a coup in Quebec and the French shelled the English speaking parts of the province for a decade killing tens of thousands. And to pretend that there are not genuine Heil Hitler type Nazis there just says that you only started following events there three weeks ago.
Yes there are Nazis in Ukraine, the ones with the Nazi flag fought in the US backed coup that overthrew the elected govt there and installed a pro-NATO govt, sparking a brutal civil war.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1503361931276656641
I have been following this story for a long time because the impeachment rathole leads there.
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit · Nov 11, 2019
Jan 19, 2016 meeting with Ukrainians hosted by Ciaramella, at which Ukrainians were told of linkage of IMF $1 billion to demand that Shokin be fired. Ukrainians at meeting also released Black Ledger against Manafort to aid Hillary.
Ciaramella was personally involved in issuing Biden demand that Shokin be fired as condition for IMF $1 billion. Ukr prosecutors informed of demand by US officials at Jan 19, 2016 meeting in Washington https://zn.ua/POLITICS/ssha-privyazali-predostavlenie-ukraine-kreditnyh-garantiy-k-otstavke-shokina-201985_.html…, one month before Shokin resignation.
I can understand a simp like Howard swallowing this crap and vomiting it up here, but these guys hate anybody who doesn't worship Hillary, and doesn't hate Trump with a passion. Don't let them scew with your head like this.
The Biden Administration is depraved and they were happy to sacrifice tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives in a needless war, for domestic political advantage. Biden is a sociopath, really.
Salon: https://www.salon.com/2022/03/10/are-there-really-neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-well-yes--but-its-a-long-story/
We have a president unwilling to even arm Ukraine, slow walking every decision, unwilling to upset Putin too much over an incursion into a country the Biden family treated as a piggy bank, and Mitt is questioning Tulsi’s patriotism? I guess some things are so obvious they’re easy to overlook.
If the Russians would rather commit national suicide than let Ukraine be, I guess they get to commit national suicide and take the rest of us with them.
No fucking deals.
Putin is a terrorist, you do not negotiate with terrorist, you destroy them.
What would happen if we had a serious government instead of the current flock of pathetic loser is that, at every level, we'd be telling the Russians that they aren't going to win this, no matter what, and that if they didn't want their families to die in nuclear fire they'd better reel in Putin.
If they want to confine the fight to Ukraine, that's fine. But just as they backed North Korea and North Vietnam and helped them kill US soldiers, https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/10/sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-raises-the-specter-of-the-cold-war/ we're going to back Ukraine and help them kill Russian soldiers, and keep on doing it until Russia is forced completely out of Ukraine.
Civilization wins, Russia and Putin lose.
Russia gets to decide how much they're willing to lose, but they dont' get to blackmail us into letting them win.
Because giving in to threats just gets you more threats
Big Mike said...
its ability to be fired on full auto means that an untrained fighter can send "spray and pray" bullets at the enemy, with a high likelihood of hitting someone or something.
"Spay and pray" means th only thing your bullets hit is the ground.
I will just note that what Biden* wanted was for the Russians to attack Ukraine, and for Ukraine to fold like a cheap suit.
Thus Zelensky had to say "I don't want a ride out, I want ammunition." Because he didn't want to see his people enslaved by the Russians again, and didn't want to play his assigned role in a Wage the Dog Democrat party campaign special.
Western "elites" want Putin to win. It is the western people who want Ukraine to win, and Putin to lose.
Western "elites" look at Putin like they look at Xi: someone to imitate
Censor opposing views
Throw people who oppose you into jail
Have a corrupt economic and political system where all power and benefits go to the connect few, regardless of ability, rather than to be earned and competed over
If you claim to hate those things, then you want Putin to lose.
Biden* OTOH removed Trump's sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a pipeline whose sole purpose was to let Russia send natural gas straight to Germany, bypassing Ukraine.
So that the Russians could then cut off Ukraine while stillmakign lost of money selling to Western Europe.
The WEF isn't on Ukraine's side. They're not using this fighting to steal Russia's resources,
This fighting, these sanctions, are depriving them of Russian resources.
Hate the WEF? Support Zelensy, and oppose Putin
Big Mike said...
Except "Highly motivated" "Fighters" with ZERO military training and no modern state of art weapons are bascially worthless.
@rcocean, point of information. Taliban kicked out asses, did they not?
No.
They did not.
Black Bellamy said...
"...The best way out of all this is to nuke Moscow and immediately demand unconditional surrender.
I mean I would have nuked Moscow the very first chance I could regardless of what else was going on just to put an end to that festering pustule they call a nation but in reality has been nothing but a virulent cancer on civilization."
Winning first prize for the most moronic post of the day. Nuking Moscow would certainly yield a devastating reciprocal response, called mutual assured destruction.
By various means that aren't located in Moscow:
Report to Congress on Russian Nuclear Weapons
March 2, 2022
"...Russia’s current modernization cycle for its nuclear forces began in the early 2000s and is likely to conclude in the 2020s. In addition, in March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was developing new types of nuclear systems. While some see these weapons as a Russian attempt to achieve a measure of superiority over the United States, others note that they likely represent a Russian response to concerns about emerging U.S. missile defense capabilities.
These new Russian systems include, among others, a heavy ICBM with the ability to carry multiple warheads, a hypersonic glide vehicle, an autonomous underwater vehicle, and a nuclear-powered cruise missile. The hypersonic glide vehicle, carried on an existing long-range ballistic missile, entered service in late 2019."
https://news.usni.org/2022/03/02/report-to-congress-on-russian-nuclear-weapons-3
What you really need is having your head examined by a competent shrink.
"the beautiful life free people enjoy in the West.
Howard wins Sarcasm Of the Month award!
tim in vermont said... @ 10:19
Ukraine is corrupt? Who knew? Of course they are. Now do the Biden Admin.
Do they not have the right to defend themselves from an unprovoked attack? Keep in mind that the breakaway republics were heavily armed, promoted and staffed by Russia. It was not an organic uprising.
tim in vermont said...
Biden could have had that deal in December, or at least tested Putin at his word, instead he chose this war first.
"Test Putin at his word"?
Why yes, let's see if the former KGB Colonel, corrupt oligarch and dictator can be trusted to keep his word?
WTF?
Look at a map of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, and tell me that *any Russian leader* could accept the possibility of NATO doing to Russia what it did to Serbia, and Libya, and Iraq, with weapons systems and troops 700 miles from Moscow, from the Baltic NATO states to the north and Ukraine to the south, and the Black Sea denied by NATO forces, the Arctic denied by Sweden and Norway, and the Pacific an American lake. The war would be over before it started and Russia would either launch it's nukes, or be humiliated. Likely they would go to China on their knees, and between Afghanistan and Russia, China would now enjoy the natural resources to make them the "world hegemon."
Jesus fucking christ, just how stupid ARE you?
There's two possibilities here:
1: Russia really is as militarily weak as Serbia, Iraq, and Libya. In which case it's not a "great power", and the US can bully the hell out of it regardless of having Ukraine as part of NATO.
For one thing, our Navy is so infinitely superior to their that they'd have no use of teh Black Sea regardless of whether or not they control Crimea.
2: There's no way we could "pull a Serbia" on Russia, even with Ukraine part of NATO
If the Russian air defense system can't keep us from bombing Moscow at will if we have Ukraine, then it can't keep us from doing it from the Baltic States, either.
Your scenario is ludicrous bullshit.
Russia's possession of nukes means that's not going to happen no matter how many NATO countries are on the border, and always has.
The ONLY thing that having Ukraine part of NATO does to "harm" Russia" is it takes away their ability to enslave the Ukrainians.
In any case, without war, we would be constantly on the brink of nuclear war with the slightest miscalculation. This is not sympathy for Putin, but empathy for Russia's position. If a person doesn't know the difference between empathy and sympathy, I am not sure why they read this blog.
The only empathy you have is for Putin's desire to enslave everyone around him. Because taking that power away is the only threat NATO offers
tim in vermont said...
The Biden Administration is depraved and they were happy to sacrifice tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives in a needless war, for domestic political advantage. Biden is a sociopath, really.
No shit, Sherlock.
So why are you backing the outcome he wants?
Biden* doesn't want Ukraine to actually win, he* just wanted a little fight to burnish his domestic credentials.
The Biden* Admin didn't pull sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline because they wanted to contain Russia.
Zelensky didn't have to say "I don't want a ride out, I want ammunition" because the Biden* Admin was so eager to support the Ukrainians fighting the Russians.
The Biden* Admin is currently relying on the Russians to "help" get a "deal" with Iran to give Iran nukes. The last thing in the world they want to see is Russia defeated and Putin humiliated.
You are being Biden's butt boy, pushing the policies that the corrupt and incompetent Biden* Admin actually wants, as opposed to what they're being forced to say for public consumption.
I'll listen to you whinging about Biden's corruption, when you stop supporting the utterly corrupt Putin.
And since NATO in Ukraine poses no actual threat to Russia, the reality is that all your posts on this are about supporting Putin.
It’s not obvious that the US could prevail in a nuclear war with Russia. Russia apparently has better anti-missile defenses than the US and nuclear strike weapons (hyper missiles) that we can’t shoot down. Maybe in the next presidential campaign, the GOP candidate could run on a “missile gap” platform?
"It's not obvious that the US could prevail in a nuclear war with Russia."
Indeed, few things are obvious once the missiles fly--except that millions or billions die--which makes the notion of prevailing a quaint one. Dr. Strangelove territory.
One of the recurring cycles of history is that great powers sometimes fall into the hands of criminals and incompetents, shallow fanatics and ideologues who never learned how awful big wars can be, or refuse to care.
Blogger StephenFearby said...
Black Bellamy said...
Pretty sure that Black Bellamy is just a moby. In any event, he's not worth taking seriously nor engaged with in good faith.
Douglas B. Levene said...
"It’s not obvious that the US could prevail in a nuclear war with Russia. Russia apparently has better anti-missile defenses than the US and nuclear strike weapons (hyper missiles) that we can’t shoot down. Maybe in the next presidential campaign, the GOP candidate could run on a “missile gap” platform?"
Judging by the type and condition of Russian materiel being used in Ukraine I'm going to make an estimation that the rest of Russia's war fighting equipment is in equally bad condition. Their supposedly 'world class' air force is having serious problems getting air dominance over Ukraine. Like Russias imposing best of class new tank, the armata 14 is just that a single tank or two that break down often. Same with their 6th generation stealth fighter of which there is only one working example. Mostly working example. Russia is rapidly showing the world it is a second class military power.
China is watching closely and taking notes.
The Russians haven’t really been able to field any of their state of the art tanks and fighters. I would be very surprised if they had fielded any appreciable number of hypersonic missiles. Yes, they still have ICBMs and SLBMs, but so do we. And we probably have more SLBMs in close proximity to their capital, etc than they do.
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