Althouse: "It sounds like the plane iced when they flew through the cell. They thought at first it was light to moderate icing. But then it sounds like it got really severe."

३ नोव्हेंबर, २०२६

"It sounds like the plane iced when they flew through the cell. They thought at first it was light to moderate icing. But then it sounds like it got really severe."

"The plane can become almost uncontrollable.... They couldn’t recover from it, and they crashed.... This, to me, is just a textbook example of exactly what we’re taught when we’re pilots, and that is, don’t fly through thunderstorms, because you just don’t know their severity."

Said Daniel Bubb, a former pilot who now teaches at the University of Nevada, quoted in "What Caused a Jet to Dive Nose First Into the Ground? Ice, experts said, can change the shape of a plane’s wing, disrupting its aerodynamics" (NYT).

४२ टिप्पण्या:

rhhardin म्हणाले...: A tailplane stall is the most interesting possibility. The tailplane has the least effective anti-icing while the wing is protected by engine bleed air. NASA video

A video which was probably responsible for the Calgon crash long ago by providing bad advice for most situations.; ३/११/२६, १०:३८ AM
Peachy+2 म्हणाले...: A Colorado family of 4 died in the crash.

Images of the crash on local media
Wow.; ३/११/२६, १०:४० AM
rhhardin म्हणाले...: The copilot got some praise from Blancolerio for calling out what was going on to ATC, important evidence.; ३/११/२६, १०:४१ AM
RCOCEAN II म्हणाले...: People are focusing in on the co-pilot a 20 y/o woman. But the head pilot was a 55 y/o man with lots of flying experience. Anyone can make a mistake. Too bad this one cost lives.; ३/११/२६, १०:४४ AM
Aggie म्हणाले...: I was riding once as a passenger in the front seat of a Bolkow 105 chopper, a German 2-engine helicopter with an almost- full perspex bubble over the cockpit. The pilot took us right at a huge cumulus thunderhead, then at the very last minute skirted around it toward the landing strip, as it towered both in front, and over us. He was a Canadian ex-Vietnam pilot, and we were the only two on board, and I think he was trying to get a rise out of me.

I'm surprised the flight crew didn't try to skirt such a huge cell, but maybe it blew up quickly; Florida has certainly had some violent weather over the past week. Tragic and I hope the full analysis inspires changes.; ३/११/२६, १०:४५ AM
Jersey Fled म्हणाले...: Sad; ३/११/२६, १०:४६ AM
imTay म्हणाले...: Per Orlando TV, the rainfall amounts, up to 24 inches in places, made it a thousand year storm, in other words, it was a storm that needed a good leaving alone.; ३/११/२६, १०:५४ AM
imTay म्हणाले...: ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.; ३/११/२६, १०:५७ AM
imTay म्हणाले...: They encountered precipitation, and it seems that water can be supercooled, -47C where the plane was, and remain liquid for a time,and it could have been jetted up out of the storm, and it can defeat the anti icing tech on these planes, at least according to my YouTube PhD on the subject.; ३/११/२६, १०:५८ AM
Big Mike म्हणाले...: Probably Daniel Bubb is correct, but as I’ve said before we should wait for the NTSB to make its report. For instance the jet was flying across Florida on its way to Freeport in the Bahamas. Did the captain check Florida weather before the flight? The copilot (“pilot monitoring”) was in touch with ATC but the controller advised that they were at the edge of his radar coverage. What role did that play?; ३/११/२६, ११:१४ AM
Wince म्हणाले...: “Mmm… dark, lively…”

https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-story/98935350-b340-498a-bba1-654c8336462c; ३/११/२६, ११:१६ AM
gspencer म्हणाले...: Good pilots fly around severe weather.; ३/११/२६, ११:१७ AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ म्हणाले...: Chilling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSw9MY5k02I; ३/११/२६, ११:२६ AM
Humperdink म्हणाले...: My favorite NY Times comment on the article:

“ Ice seems odd to me, but I'm not a pilot nor a meteorologist. Flying from Texas, over Palm Beach and to the Bahamas doesn't seem like a route that would encounter much in the way of ice. All are warm climates, even in the late fall and winter. In the years that I spent living in the Palm Beach area, hail wasn't something that I can even remember encountering.”

I’m sure he votes.; ३/११/२६, ११:३९ AM
Kalli Davis म्हणाले...: Pilot error: (Just a guess) he did not calculate enough fuel to avoid thunderstom cells and decided he could save fuel by flying over cells. Got to -41 degrees C; and the wings froze over.; ३/११/२६, ११:४३ AM
gilbar म्हणाले...: the co-pilot's JOB was to work the radio, while the pilot tryed to fly it.
And she did her job, right until they hit the ground.
She handled it FAR better than i would have.. far better than MOST people
But since she had a little voice, and sounded like a woman..
LOTS of people criticized her (many blaming HER for the crash).
if YOU are one of those people.. i'd suggest YOU sit in the cockpit of a plane that was out of control.. watching the ground come up, and show me how YOU would do.
seriously.; ३/११/२६, ११:४४ AM
RCOCEAN II म्हणाले...: The article states they up at 35000 feet. That must have been one huge thunderstorm.; ३/११/२६, ११:५१ AM
Interested Bystander म्हणाले...: I trained as a marine corps aircraft mechanic then went to school to get my A an P mechanics license. I had instructors with ten thousand of hours of flight time and they always made the point that you never fly into a thunderstorm. Maybe that's how they got to be old pilots.; ३/११/२६, ११:५५ AM
Ralph L म्हणाले...: After my grandmother's funeral in July 1992, my dad's Annapolis roommate, best friend, career naval aviator, and part owner of a small prop plane told us about crossing the Rockies the month before and having some icing on his wings. That gave me a shudder. A month later, he & his BIL disappeared flying in southern Alaska. No sign of wreckage was ever found. The plane flying behind them crashed on landing & the pilot also died.; ३/११/२६, १२:०१ PM
Triangle Man म्हणाले...: Daniel Bubb may know something about aviation, but he evidently knows little about NTSB investigations. Anyone who does is saying "wait for the report."; ३/११/२६, १२:०८ PM
imTay म्हणाले...: I saw one video that showed a huge storm that they had avoided, and a tiny but very intense cell that they flew right into.; ३/११/२६, १२:१९ PM
Leland म्हणाले...: Yep; ३/११/२६, १२:२४ PM
Humperdink म्हणाले...: “ The article states they up at 35000 feet. That must have been one huge thunderstorm.”

Thunderstorms can reach 60,000 feet.; ३/११/२६, १२:३५ PM
mikee म्हणाले...: The headline about this that caught my attention, and which seems to cover the entire situation, was something along the lines of, "They should not have been flying." Weather is weather, and it can be bigger than any plane.; ३/११/२६, १२:३९ PM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: From a comment on X:

Long post worth the read. I have a close friend who flies private jets. He flew Lear 60 for over 15 years and now flies a Gulfstream. This is a copy and paste of his response to me asking him if he thought Ice was the issue.

“We always fly in ridiculous cold temperatures.”

“Usually you get the bad ice when the temperatures are like 0 to negative 20. Believe it or not, there's a point where it gets too cold for ice. At negative 40, you pretty much can't get ice. Besides that, the airplane is equipped with hot wings and hot tail.”

“I flew the Lear 60 for like 15 years. It's a no joke airplane and probably the most dangerous airplane I've ever flown. It has a super critical wing. The airflow has to be perfect. When it gets into rough air and turbulence, it will easily stall. It has stalled on me at 41,000 feet just because we got into some turbulence. (On the way to Palm Beach as a matter of fact. ) we recovered and got her flying again around 30,000 ft. Scary

But here's the problem. This airplane has a terrible coffin corner. (At high altitudes) what that means is, you fly in a really narrow window where if you lose 20 knots, it stalls. And if you gain 20 knots, it goes into overspeed. The air goes supersonic over the wing and it goes into a high speed stall, or worse, a Mach tuck.
So if you stall, the normal recovery is to push the yoke forward to lower the nose and gain air speed again. At low altitude, you can push really hard and recover quickly. But in the 60... if you push hard, it will gain air speed and go into a high speed stall, it doesn't take much. It's very sensitive. The 60 has super short wings that don't make much lift. So then you high speed stall, and the computer is yelling at you... OVERSPEED! So then you pull back and enter a low speed stall. And you go back and forth trying to keep it in the air speed window.

This whole thing is pretty scary. And you should recover basically by using your finger tips using super small corrections. You can't over do it. If you try to muscle the recovery, she gets mad and will become unrecoverable. If she enters a mach tuck. You're done.”

“I taught the Lear 60 to other pilots and mentored them. I told them... this airplane has a soul and it's trying to kill you. Do not ever try to top the weather. Don't go over a thunderstorm. Go around it. If it means a half hour longer, then do it. Going over the thunderstorm will go into turbulence that you might not recover from.

These pilots went right over a thunderstorm. I think it stalled which caused them to drop down into the thunderstorm and ended up in mach tuck. They picked up so much speed that it ripped off the horizontal stabilizer. At that point... chuck Yeager can't fix it.

These same pilots did something similar a couple months ago. ATC got mad at them. They poked the bear one too many times.

This is not a beginner airplane. The Gulfstream would never do this. It has HUGE margins of error and won't stall like that. But then again... it's got HUGE wings. It's a pussy cat.

The Gulfstream is like driving a 4 wheeler. The Lear 60 is like riding a unicycle.”; ३/११/२६, १२:४६ PM
Humperdink म्हणाले...: “The plane was flying through an unusual convective storm system that was nearly 50,000 feet high, according to NOAA data.” (NYPost)

Climbing was fruitless.; ३/११/२६, १२:४७ PM
Quaestor म्हणाले...: "A tailplane stall is the most interesting possibility."

There's photographic evidence that the entire horizontal stabilizer detached, which would have robbed the plane of pitch control. If that happened when the jet was descending due to turbulence, it would lead to an unrecoverable dive. If the empennage came apart (nothing is certain yet), then why? Ice load? I find that hard to credit. Their final dive reached 370 mph, which isn't excessively fast for an aircraft that can cruise at 530 mph and is aerodynamically competent into the transonic range. Something was structurally unsound about the aircraft that was either ignored by the owners or undetected by the ground staff -- metal fatigue, sheared-off fasteners, corrosion -- something.; ३/११/२६, १:०४ PM
Peachy+2 म्हणाले...: exhel 12:46
- thanks for that. yikes. yikes.
Does NOT inspire me want to book a flight on a Learjet. ever.; ३/११/२६, १:०५ PM
Humperdink म्हणाले...: When I was learning to fly way back when (late 80’s) the FAA deleted the recovery from stall/spin from the training program. Reason? My instructor told me it was killing more students practicing it than it would help.

I asked my instructor if we could try it. He agreed. He also said if we are in the middle of it and he yells I got the plane, I was to release all controls to him (actually that was a standard instruction).

I didn’t execute fast enough and the plane was spiraling towards the earth. He took the plane. Two things I remember vividly. The plane was spiraling around the same spot on the ground like a bullseye. The second was the air speed indicator went from green to yellow to red in a heartbeat. I was successful on the second attempt.; ३/११/२६, १:०९ PM
Vance म्हणाले...: From what little I know they were trying to avoid thunderstorms but there were so many they finally tried to go either over or through the smallest one. And, well... didn't work out.; ३/११/२६, १:११ PM
SoLastMillennium म्हणाले...: The NYT strikes me as near the last place to get reliable news on an event like this. I suspect at least half the people here have already watched a good walk through by an actual working pilot on the crash on YouTube or such. The ones I saw made these points.
1) The Learjet has a very high stall speed at altitude.
2) It is underpowered for its aerodynamics not being able to throttle up and add 30+ nots of airspeed when needed.
3) A high speed stall has you fall from the sky.
4) The storm cell formed quickly. They thought they would be 10K+ above it and ended in its center.
5) Since they dropped from a higher elevation they plane was cold so ice formed rapidly.
6) The dive from the stall would be more than the airframe could handle so loss of parts, mostly control surfaces, is almost certain. At that point it is best your spirit is at peace with God.; ३/११/२६, १:१४ PM
Joe Bar म्हणाले...: The copilot reported turbulence buffeting the airplane up and down 600-800 feet. They flew right into it. I've alway understood it was best to give those storms 30 NM clearance.; ३/११/२६, १:३७ PM
rhhardin म्हणाले...: I have the feeling that the tailplane was still there but just blurred into nonexistence by motion. Even the wings are blurred but they're much wider and so look present.

The reason is that without a tailplane the airplane ought to just tumble. The nose would start down but nothing would keep the nose pointed down.; ३/११/२६, १:३९ PM
ChrisC म्हणाले...: The comment above from X is right on the money. I am a former military/commercial pilot. Some airplanes are more suseptible to icing than others. Many of you have probably flown on the old MD-80 and variants. It had a long narrow wing and icing would make it fall of the sky like the learjet. I remember sitting next to a guy while our MD-88 was getting de-iced and he asked, "why are we the only ones getting de-iced?" I said, "if I told you, you are going to want to get off of this airplane."; ३/११/२६, १:५१ PM
ChrisC म्हणाले...: Also, some free advice for the Althouse commenting crowd - never fly on a non-us flagged carrier and never fly on a private jet.; ३/११/२६, १:५८ PM
bbface21 म्हणाले...: "Good pilots fly around severe weather."

True, but as I've lived in Florida for over 20 years, severe weather can form quickly and completely out of nowhere. Pilots can't just fly wherever to avoid it.; ३/११/२६, २:०७ PM
Smilin' Jack म्हणाले...: Lindbergh had this problem over the North Atlantic. He was nodding off (it was a 34 hour flight and he hadn’t slept well the previous night), but suddenly jerked awake and found his plane in a steep dive. He managed to wrestle the nose up and regain some control, but he was still losing altitude and getting uncomfortably close to the whitecaps below. Just as he thought he was done for, the ice on the wings started to break up and blow off. The warmer air at the lower altitude had melted it. That saved him, and the experience kept him wide awake for the rest of the flight. (At least that’s how it went in the movie.); ३/११/२६, २:४३ PM
Aught Severn म्हणाले...: "The nose would start down but nothing would keep the nose pointed down." Aerodynamics can get a bit wonky, especially if you have departed from normal flight. The angle of attack can cause equilibrium to form and halt body rotation. All surfaces of the plane would be generating lift and the odd orientation (steep dive, 60 degree roll from the atc recording) coupled with a potentially large vertical and/or horizontal angle of attack brought on by the stall/overspeed conditions means that any assumptions made on flight characteristics are out to lunch. Wait for the investigation report.; ३/११/२६, ३:२८ PM
GRW3 म्हणाले...: There is a standard NTSB/FAA phrase that should appear soon: Continued flight into adverse weather conditions. It's way up there on the list of pilot killers. It's sort of like the song The Edmund Fitzgerald, they might have iced up, or they might have broken up but all that remains is the faces and the names.; ३/११/२६, ७:०२ PM
Curious George म्हणाले...: "ChrisC said...
Also, some free advice for the Althouse commenting crowd - never fly on a non-us flagged carrier"

Many of the safest carriers in the world are non-US.; ३/११/२६, ७:१८ PM
Narr म्हणाले...: "never fly on a non-us flagged carrier."

Oops, that advice is years and decades too late for me. (I assume 'us-flagged' = an American airline. I've never had any issues on Brit, French, German, Belgian, Italian, or Dutch planes.); ३/११/२६, ८:०३ PM
Fred Drinkwater म्हणाले...: My father spent years doing aerodynamics flight research using two notoriously difficult planes: F-104, and various Learjets. On the Lear, they would often modify the wing to stimulate (not a typo) a stall by gluing a small (3" x 0.5") strip of sandpaper to a leading edge.
A little ice can do big things.; ४/११/२६, ९:३७ AM

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३ नोव्हेंबर, २०२६

"It sounds like the plane iced when they flew through the cell. They thought at first it was light to moderate icing. But then it sounds like it got really severe."

४२ टिप्पण्या:

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३ नोव्हेंबर, २०२६

"It sounds like the plane iced when they flew through the cell. They thought at first it was light to moderate icing. But then it sounds like it got really severe."

४२ टिप्पण्या:

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