Those are last 3 sentences of "Why a Trump conviction might not save Biden’s reelection. Pollsters have already started to explore what effect, if any, a criminal conviction before the election would have on Trump’s support" (Politico).
People expect Trump to get convicted of something, and the actual occurrence of a conviction before the election is not going to give Biden the boost he needs. The polls already show the effect of this future event, and Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up.
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६० टिप्पण्या:
"...and Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up."
I'd be happy if they would just grow up.
I’m tired of lawfare.
"Most Americans already don't want Trump"
Actually a lot of data - poLOLing, psychographic, or other - shows the complete opposite. Guess we'll see.
It was amazing in 1956, when the total US population was about 170 million, that the two candidates were the same two as in 1952 (Ike v. Adlai Stevenson). 170 million and there was no one new or different for the Ds?
Today, with the US population doubled that of 1956, we again have the same two candidates as 2020?
And Joe is as CFR-connected as was Adlai. Odd, huh?
"Most Americans already don’t want Trump — or Biden, for that matter — to run"
More important question: will the anti-Trumpers of 2020 switch? I say no, polls be damned. And Althouse will stay on the fence.
"Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up."
Nah. They're awake alright. The old abhorrence will do fine. And if not, they have other ways.
But just as Trump is Dems' best weapon, so does Woeful Joe help Trump.
Of course Trump will be convicted of something. A DC jury just issued a $148m verdict against Rudy.
The media's grand schemes and lies to cover for their beloved party(D) and mob-crook Biden, king-pin - are not working.
The media lie machine is effective on people like Rich and Chuck.
How many loyalist leftists are going to drag biden across the finish line? That is the question. and will the same bad-actors and cheat machine be used in 2024 - effectively?
It's getting increasingly difficult for the leftist D-hack media lie machine to lie to everyone about the millions of illegal entrants.... about the drugs, and the human trafficking... and the tax payer dollars used to build the left's schemes. But we all know - the D-hack Media industrial complex lie machine keep on shape shifting..
Hey everyone - there's a missing binder!
Celebrities in L.A. (and NYC) can get their hands on anything through doctors who get hard-ons from being so close to the fire. (Our old, and short-lived, pediatrician was gaga over his celeb clientele.) It won’t be a surprise if an investigation leads to the arrest of a licensed medico.
One thing that likely hasn't been priced in is the lefts response to any Trump conviction. A lot of them are going to be utterly obnoxious about the whole matter. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns off more voters, and leads to their supporting Trump.
The GOP can avoid all this Trump drama with Vivek.
You can’t wake up from acute derangement.
Biden will not be the nominee.
Since all the legal cases are examples of "lawfare" and everybody knows it, I doubt any conviction by a biased jury will matter. If Democrats really want to stop Trump "by any means necessary," assassination is going to be more likely. Bolsonaro was attacked in Brazil before being elected. Later he was removed by the corrupt legal establishment.
gspencer said...
"It was amazing in 1956, when the total US population was about 170 million, that the two candidates were the same two as in 1952 (Ike v. Adlai Stevenson)."
We've fallen a long way from Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson. Maybe 70 years in the future we'll see two transgender homeless people on the ballot.
Imagine if all this was speculative fiction from about, oh, 2015 or so. Whatever happens, it will be unprecedented. I'm inclined to agree with those who think that the reaction of the approved thinkers to a Trump conviction, perp walk, and all the surrounding theatre will drive the process. Will we be subjected to sad invocations or open celebration?
Will the drive be off a cliff?
I am reminded of the ending to the original Italian Job movie with Michael Caine in the '60s. Time marches on. I'm interested in self-preservation.
RideSpaceMountain said...
"poLOLing"
Ha! I'm totally keeping that.
I wish I could buy Rich nationwide TV ads to use as he pleases. He could drive up Trump's favorability by 5% all by hisself.
"The polls already show the effect of this future event, and Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up."
The polls already show the effect of this future event, and Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump, when he's Trump the Convicted Felon, need to wake up.
Fixed it for you.
Unless things changed dramatically, I am assuming that Biden is holding out until he can step down and let the insiders pick his replacement at the convention. Democratic primary voters must be denied any say, at all costs "to protect democracy."
Dave Begley said...
Of course Trump will be convicted of something. A DC jury just issued a $148m verdict against Rudy.
Did a jury render a verdict on the evidence, or just award a quantum of damages?
"[After conceding] in two stipulations... that he had made false statements when he accused the election workers... Mr. Giuliani later sought to explain... that his stipulations were solely meant to get past a dispute with Ms. Freeman and Ms. Moss about discovery evidence in the case and move toward dismissing the allegations outright. But Judge [Beryl A.] Howell, complaining that Mr. Giuliani’s stipulations 'hold more holes than Swiss cheese,' took the proactive step of declaring him liable for 'defamation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, civil conspiracy and punitive damage claims.'"
https://althouse.blogspot.com/2023/08/after-conceding-in-two-stipulations-in.html
I could be wrong - but I still think the radical left puppet masters are going to stick with Biden.
He's a crook - but he is their crook... and they need to keep the charade going.
The same people who promoted Biden in 2020 promoted Trump in 2015.
"Biden supporters who are hoping for new abhorrence of Trump when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up."
No, they need to be put to sleep.
It shows that the repuclicans succeeding in their efforts to gain power by continuously undermining confidence in the rule of law.
You all know where that leads, right?
The people who might possibly vote for Trump realize that the prosecutions are politically motivated and, thus, Stalinist. The people who think the prosecutions are just are never going to vote for Trump in any case- people like Chuck, Rich, and Lonejustice. What this means is that even if Trump is convicted, this isn't going to change anyone's mind into not voting for him, and might even drive his support higher (which has been the actual experience since the first indictment was handed down).
“But Judge [Beryl A.] Howell, complaining that Mr. Giuliani’s stipulations 'hold more holes than Swiss cheese,' took the proactive step of declaring him liable for 'defamation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, civil conspiracy and punitive damage claims.'"”
Oh - the federal judge that Rep Elise Stefanik just filed a grievance against, for, among other things, being too close to the FJB DOJ and its prosecutors. See: ‘Election Interference’ Ethics Complaint Against Judge Beryl Howell Filed by Elise Stefanik
“I filed a Complaint of Judicial Misconduct against Judge Beryl Howell, because election interference by judges destroys public confidence in the federal judiciary, tears apart the fabric of our Republic, and is illegal. It must end now.
“DC Obama Judge Beryl Howell gave a highly inappropriate speech in which she insinuated the election of President Trump will lead to fascism in America. She also inappropriately allowed a public display of her cozy personal relationships with her partisan friends who appear before her, including the Biden Deputy Attorney General who supervises the January 6 criminal prosecutions.”
The Left believes these kangaroo court cases will influence people to change their opinion of Trump? How precious.
I believe the main reason Trump has been consistently popular with a large segment of America is precisely because he drives the Left batshit insane.
The American Left despises most of the country - the deplorables, of course - and Trump is a symbolic middle finger back in their face. Deplorables identify with Trump as they do no professional politician.
Similar to the oversized reaction to the Bud Light controversy, Trump acts as a voice for frustrated people who feel they have no real voice in the public square. Alicia Heidnerscheid didn't specifically call their customers deplorable, but it's exactly what she had in mind. The public's reaction was another plain middle finger to the Left.
When Trump wins the 2024 election, terrified progs will engage in a massive uprising---looting, pillaging, burning and rioting on a scale that will make the George Floyd BLM riots seem insignificant by comparison
And they will claim they are doing it to Save our Democracy!
Jim nobody understands what the hell you’re going on about. Who or what is “undermining confidence in the rule of law”? Is it the people saying this SCOTUS is “illegitimate”? WHO are they? Is it the “forgiveness of student loans” that SCOTUS already said was unconstitutional that still mysteriously keeps being announced. Who is promising it? Is it the constant attempts to “work around” the Bruen decision to limit second amendment rights that has your dander up? Who’s doing that?
Oh I know! It’s the way all the laws regulating who can immigrate legally and who is eligible for asylum are being ignored, isn’t it? Or maybe it’s the way the DOJ forbid IRS investigators from verifying the wire transfers to the Big Guy or even asking the obvious questions about the propriety of those shell companies set up by the Biden family. That’s definitely eroding the rule of law, right? Maybe it’s just the way the special counsel put off interviewing Hunter Biden until the statute of limitations had run out on all the payments from Burisma, the very special prosecutor appointed by the guy working for Hunter’s dad. That certainly seems sketchy. Although it is less blatant than the way the FBI is completely indifferent to Joe Biden possessing secret documents that rightfully belong to Obama or the National Archives but raided Trump’s house with guns drawn for a dispute over what documents the archivest wanted (and the lack of any enforcement authority in the Presidential Records Act). That definitely undermines confidence that the law is being applied fairly and without political interference since there is no law against Trump having the documents and in fact the PRA as enforced has never been used to even remove documents from a former president.
Yeah that’s probably what jim meant.
“It shows that the repuclicans succeeding in their efforts to gain power by continuously undermining confidence in the rule of law.”
The dem… er, Idiocrats have shown how much respect for the RoL they have in several ways, e.g., open southern border
“Since all the legal cases are examples of "lawfare" and everybody knows it, I doubt any conviction by a biased jury will matter. If Democrats really want to stop Trump "by any means necessary," assassination is going to be more likely. Bolsonaro was attacked in Brazil before being elected. Later he was removed by the corrupt legal establishment.”
The LawFare here against Trump, Giuliani, and the J6 defendants is more than blatant. It shouldn’t be any surprise that Judge Howell is completely onboard - she is apparently close to the infamous Andrew Weissman, who jointly developed the LawFare misinterpretation of § 1001 Obstruction to attack the Trump Administration with LawFare Blog head Benjamin Weisse, which was misused by Weissman and the Mueller prosecutors as the basis of its perjury traps, until shut down by newly confirmed AG Barr. They have been doing the same thing with 18 U.S.C. 1512(c)(2), which has been (miss)used frequently against the J6 defendants, and forms the basis of two of the charges against Trump. The Supreme Court last week granted Cert last week to hear appeals of several J6 defendants convicted by, Judge Howell, and others, under this statute. The other three prosecutions of Trump (FL, NY, GA) also are using novel LawFare legal (mis)interpretations against him. And, yes, LawFare is also being used across the country to try to keep Trump off of the ballot.
The problem with LawFare is that it almost always violates the Due Process requirements of the 5th and 14th Amdts. First, and foremost, criminal statutes must be interpreted as they are clearly written, and have been routinely interpreted. This all revolves around Notice - that the party charged must have been on Notice that their actions were criminal. Wandering around the Capital on 1/6/21 didn’t disrupt the official proceedings one bit, and there was no reason for the participants to have believed that they violated any laws. Certainly not felonies. And esp since the left had routinely, with no legal repercussions, actively disrupted official Congressional proceedings in the chambers in which they had been being carried out. Etc. If nothing else, think of the pussy hatted idiots carrying on 4 years earlier.
At no point does the writer address the validity of the prosecutions or the possibility that voters will see them as politically motivated.
Trump could raise a fortune selling striped prison shirts with his inmate number on them...
Republicans are NOT the solution to all our problems, but Democrats are absolutely the cause.
It’s the fatal flaw in our system and they are fatally flaunting it…
"If 2024 is a 2020 rematch, it will be a contest between two candidates the country doesn’t particularly want. And voters appear to be pricing in Trump’s legal woes already."
A large number of ordinary people would explain to Steven Shepard that Joe Biden and his Bidenomics are precisely why we need Donald Trump, regardless of whether or not the latter is incarcerated. Everything seems broken and who besides Trump has the credentials — and the track record — to suggest that he or she could fix it? But Steven Shepard isn’t going to ask the server at the local diner or the hairdresser at the local salon or the guy on the trash truck at o-dark-30 or the single mother down at the trailer park whose ex has been laid off and can’t make his child support payments. He only talks to people in his bubble.
"Biden will not be the nominee."
I think you're underestimating the difficulty of agreeing on one particular candidate to replace him. If Biden remains the nominee, then win or lose, it's still only four years. Whoever they replaced him with, however, presumably would be the president for eight years. That makes it harder to find someone the PTB can all agree on. For example, someone like Newsom would be thrilled to see Biden dumped, but only if Newsom then gets to be the nominee! OTOH, if the plan that emerges is to replace Biden with Amy Klobuchar, then I'd fully expect Newsom (and many others) to try to scuttle that plan and possibly even work behind the scenes to ensure that Klobuchar loses to Trump.
The dems who are in a position to decide these things -- and I don't know if there is any such group -- obviously aren't just going to decide to replace Biden and only then, as a separate decision, undertake to determine who gets to be the replacement nominee. If it happens at all, it'll have to all be one and the same proposal, i.e., "Let's replace Biden with [blank]." And it's only going to work as a strategy if "blank" is someone more or less the whole party will be satisfied with for eight years.
When Bill Clinton saw the Lewinsky scandal blowing up just before the re-election vote, he had Podesta do a quick focus group on the situation. Podesta reported that everyone queried was negative about Clinton's behavior, negative on voting for him, negative on him being in office. Clinton's response, "Then we'll just have to win." And the coverup that lasted just long enough was instituted. Clinton won.
When Joe Biden was running for president it was evident to one and all that he was in early stages of some form of dementia. He didn't campaign, he ran entirely on the basis of "Orange Man Bad" and could have been stalk of broccoli for all the voters cared. Biden won.
Based on those precedents, all Trump has to do is win the elction, convicted or acquitted. Of course, winning the vote count depends mainly on the standards of mail-in ballot harvesting allowed, and vote counting done without oversight. So give it a try, Don, you don't have anything to lose except the election anyway.
When the screed starts with, " Most Americans....." You know what follows will be heavily weighted partisan shit.
"The GOP can avoid all this Trump drama with Vivek."
Sure. But then, there'd be Vivek drama. Everybody understands this, I'd think.
@Althouse: "when he's Trump the Convicted Felon need to wake up."
Way back during the 2016 campaign people like Rachel Maddow on MSNBC ranted about the many ways that Trump was "disqualified" from the presidency for this, that, and the other thing. I concluded that they only ever lived in a politically correct and self-censored echo chamber, so they could not understand what Trump intended over his surface rudeness. They could not understand actual competition.
As always, 30% of the population is insane. Half of these are on the left and half are on the right. The trouble is that the left has pushed their insane faction into power and influence roles because of the self-defeating equity ideology. Still, over the long term, weak people will lose and strong people will win. Stupid people will fail and smart people will avoid mistakes. Nature and life are built on actual competition.
Those who support Trump (and I am one such supporter) see the Dimocrat lawfare for what it is.
It's an attempt to take our legitimate electoral choice away from us (Orange Man Bad, Baby Can't Have Him).
Well most three year olds will react angrily if their favorite toy is snatched away from them
But go ahead Dims--grab that toy.
Seventy-five million of Americans voted for Trump, and still believe he won the race in 2020. That’s a lot of people! Thanks to lawfare, the former president is effectively the super-underdog in the race, so he has his prior policy gravitas and now can add station gravitas. Who doesn’t root for the underdog?
The arrogance of the democrat party lawyers knows no bounds. Would that karma come knocking quickly.
It was amazing in 1956, when the total US population was about 170 million, that the two candidates were the same two as in 1952 (Ike v. Adlai Stevenson)
@gspencer, the more apt analogy is probably the election of 1892. In 1884 Grover Cleveland was the first Democrat elected President since 1860, beating James Blaine, who was, until Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, the most personally corrupt person ever to run for the Presidency. Grover Cleveland lost in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison, after running a notably poor campaign (sound familiar?) and in 1892 there was a rematch between Cleveland and Harrison -- very handily won by Cleveland, thanks to Harrison's fiscal policies.
Well we shall see how similar 2024 is to 1892. I do note that Harrison was a Republican and Cleveland a Democrat, so the comparison is not perfect. But there do appear to be striking resemblances.
Dogma, that was well put.
The other factor is that if you think the Democrats have a fraud machine sufficient to put a candidate into the Oval Office no more than 3 months after announcing their candidacy then they are perfectly capable of re-electing Biden and then putting anybody else in the Office in 2028.
It shows that the repuclicans succeeding in their efforts to gain power by continuously undermining confidence in the rule of law.
You all know where that leads, right?
The person who supported BLM rioters for months on end is now warning us the perils of lawlessness.
I know exactly where it leads. Bring it.
"Dave Begley said...
Biden will not be the nominee"
I think this is right. Does anyone really think Joe Biden is calling the shots? If he isn't calling the shots then who is actually running the show? Do you think those people want to die on the Joe Biden hill or do you think they would rather keep running the show behind a different candidate?
The party that has the Not Octogenarian candidate will win in a landslide. That will be the Dems. For the GOP, anyone other than Trump is a loss. The dems have no loyalty to Biden they just want to stay in power.
What an awful choice for the American people! In 2020 they were given a choice between a flawed incumbent and the guy campaigning from his basement. Voting for Biden wasn't so much voting FOR him, as voting against everything the other guy had done wrong (which was PLENTY).
But now Biden has been President for most of a term. Do you want more Biden? Do the Trump years seem so bad?
Gosh, I wish there were another choice!
it's TOO Late, for the democrats to put someone else on the primary ticket,
plus; that would make them look like they don't have everything under control.
gilbar's prediction:
Biden will win the primaries, and go into the convention with More Than Enough votes..
Then, either right before the convention, or (even more telegenic) right after the start..
Biden will TRAGICALLY DIE (maybe from covid.. PROBABLY from covid). THEN..
The democrats will have NO CHOICE; but to accept another O'Bama Presidency (this time: Moochele).
Trump will win the polls; win the popular votes, win EVERYTHING.. EXCEPT the re-re-recounts..
So another O'Bama Presidency
"Do the Trump years seem so bad?"
I don't think so. What about you?
"Gosh, I wish there were another choice!"
Sounds like you think the Trump years weren't that good, after all. And as far as thinking it's awful that one of your choices is flawed, I'm wondering where you might find a candidate without any. Unlike his opponent, Trump speaks his mind and campaigns right out in the open.
You said Trump has done PLENTY wrong. In your mind, what are the top seven things?
The anti-Trumpers hint at all the awful things he did in office, but can't name any specifics. They are trying to rationalize their visceral hatred, which in their liturgy is an unworthy emotion. They really can't engage Trump on the issues, as Althouse suggests.
Old and fading, public servant of the republic Vs. Old and obese criminal huckster, with a hard-on for christo-fascisism.
Hemorrhoids or rectal cancer?
Biden has two advantages: first, he's the incumbent which means if he wants to stay there's not much they can do to pry him out. Second, he's basically everyone's second choice, which means that as long as there's no one challenger, he wins the primary.
I think waiting until the convention is a huge risk. If he refuses to step aside, or if the dems can coalesce around a replacement, then they're screwed. Plus, many voters may feel like it was fraud, and that they didn't get a say in choosing the candidate. Far better to hash things out in a primary.
I wonder if impeachment can be discounted. If Biden is going to lose, then the dems lose nothing by waiting until the House impeached, then telling him, "the gop has the votes; you need to resign."
President Harris can pardon Biden, "for the sake of the country", and then the dems hold some emergency primaries to push a candidate through. Harris would probably ly run, but with only six months or so as president, she wouldn't have the power of incumbency.
IMHO, Trump has a pretty undesirable personality for a President, but his administration's policies from 2017-21 were extremely beneficial for this country.
I much prefer an successful leader who's personally a jerk over a kindly grandpa figure whose policies screw up the economy, national defense, and immigration.
Even if Trump wins and somehow forces Biden to vacate the premises, a democrat congress will start impeachment proceedings the day after inauguration.
Even if Trump wins and somehow forces Biden to vacate the premises, a democrat congress will start impeachment proceedings the day after inauguration.
Good. Let them spend four years hysterically attacking Trump and pissing off everyone in the process. Blow up the whole damn system.
Moondawggie said...
“I much prefer a successful leader who's personally a jerk over a kindly grandpa figure whose policies screw up…”
But we don’t have a kindly grandpa figure. We have an aging senile perv who sniff little girls’ hair figure instead.
Q:“Hemorrhoids or rectal cancer”
A: What is all TeaBaggin’Hag’s wants for Christmas?
For my part, I am just looking forward to the "Trump the Convicted Felon" part. After that, we'll see.
One thing I like about blog posts like this is their historical value. If and when Trump is convicted, and following a conviction he loses an election, I can point to stuff like this and say, "But you had claimed that indicting and convicting Trump was HELPFUL to his election chances. And now you're sying it killed his chances?"
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