... it seemed as though the sun would show itself.
Write about anything you like in the comments.
७ सप्टेंबर, २०२०
At 6:26 a.m.....
... it seemed as though the sun would show itself.
Write about anything you like in the comments.
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From a health expert at the University of Waterloo in Canada
One of the main points discussed is something I mentioned here back in March- people were mixing up case fatality rates with infection fatality rates when discussing COVID and influenza. I thought at the time that the mistake was unintentional, but I no longer believe this- I think the mistake was made deliberately. Let me explain.
The number for influenza's fatality rate is often believed to be 0.1-0.2%- this is an infection fatality rate (IFR), but many experts pontificating in March in public and before Congress conflated this number as a case fatality rate (CFR), and for the purposes of comparing that 0.1-0.2% number to COVID's CFR, which at that time was believed to be around 3%- or 15-30 times higher than that for influenza. I pointed here and on other blogs that this was the wrong way to compare the numbers since influenza is never tested for on scale the way we were doing even then for COVID. Indeed, I explicitly wrote that if you treated seasonal influenza the way we were doing COVID- testing people with RT-PCR in the ERs to identify active cases and assign deaths, the CFR for influenza A or B in any season would be well above 1%, and likely on par with the 3% for COVID. I wrote that you wouldn't be able to compare the actual IFRs until well after the pandemic started to abate when you started to get widespread and random antibody testing to statistically estimate how many people were actually infected with COVID. I wrote that it would likely turn out that COVID's IFR would be well under 0.5%, and all the data coming in suggests it is around 0.3%, or about 3 times worse than a typical influenza season.
The paper above calls out the people for doing the conflating of IFR and CFR. They don't name the person who did this before Congress, but I know the name because I remember the testimony. It was Anthony Fauci.
Jill Biden is coming to Wisconsin to Green Bay- virtually. To talk about going back to school - virtually. I'm sure she'll have virtually nothing to say but will take a really long time to do it.
Just a thought experiment. Someone brought up RBG in previous thread, hadn't heard much about her lately. What if she kicks the bucket (or is off'ed) next week. Or even just announces she's dying. Would Trump have time to nominate a replacement and get it passed? Likely not at this point. Maybe he nominates someone, but the election happens before the nominee can be confirmed. Can you imagine how the press would make hay of this story, and push some crazed narrative? The future of the Supreme court up for grabs? Made me think that her passing would be the kind of event that might mobilize a lot of anti-Trump voters, could tilt the scales back towards Dems. Nothing is beyond these desperate people - I think it will be one of the October surprises, when the others have failed.
So I did a dump run today with my buddy for some cash money, just over the Portland border. There was a bunch of cheap Ikea-like stuff that I was beating apart with a small sledge. My bud's like, you're kind of enthusiastic with the hammer, thinking about anyone in particular?
I'm like, sometimes I'm swinging against the feckless crap-weasel Mayor Wheeler and sometimes I'm thinking about our communist Governor Brown.
BTW, it really sucks over here because we have high winds bringing forest fire smoke down from north of Spokane. We are having huge air quality issues right now. Oregon forest fires are poisoning the air further south and California is sucking their own smoke.
As we're getting off the 205 by O City by the Metro South transfer station, there is a huge fucking pro-Trump, Back the Blue caravan coming down 213 to get on the 205. There's at least dozens of pickups and at least 150 bikers that I could see in the first red-light cycle.
For the first time in many days I turned on the local news feed, KGW, and nothing on the caravan. There was this on the Oregonian site: https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/09/trump-supporters-proud-boys-gather-for-labor-day-caravan-outside-portland.html
It sort of feels like the "Boogaloo" is starting. Last week, when the Patriot Prayer guy was murdered, a major Proud Boy spokesman was a big Black dude who went by Tiny.
In Oregon the country party is getting restless. And it's not about race, it's about the Constitution and public safety.
The president of the Downtown Development Committee, a private business group, just published a letter criticizing Mayor Wheeler and pointed out the number of companies changing their plans in downtown PDX. And, I read today that Pinterest, some kind of social media company, said that it will pay $98 million to break their San Fran office lease.
There's your "boogaloo" right there. Stakeholders, regardless of their lip service to BLM, are stopping their investments in Portland and revenues will go down and law-abiding citizens will suffer. Because, while All Lives really do Matter, that's racist.
I sometimes wonder about the perfect slice of pizza.
I don’t mean anything re the taste.
I only think about the proportion and dimensions of the the slices. How many square inches is required for the best slice of pizza?
Many say that pizza foldablity must be ez pz. This characteristic is not just a related to the size and shape of the slice because the slice’s rigidity also matters. This (among other concerns) is why the pie’s diameter impacts the ideal surface area for a slice. There are different perfect slices depending on stuff like the pizza’s rigidity and the diameter of the pizza. I’ve also come up w/ many important measures re the perfect slice, but I can’t reveal those yet.
Every day for a year I’ve been working on my pizza slice ranking system. One to ten.
More to come.
Interesting and plausible (if true) but at this point only from anonymous sources:
@paulsperry_
DEVELOPING: Investigators have learned that Obama CIA Director John Brennan ran a secret task force out of Langley with its own separate budget to investigate Trump campaign and alleged ties to Russia. Taskforce set up before FBI officially launched its own probe on 07/31/16
11:17 PM · Sep 7, 2020·
https://twitter.com/paulsperry_/status/1303170472071356418
It's still early in September...
While Governor Brown is still looking for white supremacists, I'm having a hard time believing that Tiny and his POC Proud Boy comrades are white supremacists.
Also, the "Walking on Sunshine" remix on the Andy Tifa who set himself on fire with the Molotov is the best. If you haven't seen it, check it out. It's on Ace of Spades I think. The "Footloose" one has dropped to #2 on my top ten.
Here's why I know Trump is going to win, the Iron Range.
Trump lost Minnesota by like 1.5% in 2016, Outside of Hennipen Country, the Twin Cities, Greater Minnesota is very red, except for the unionized hard-rock mining counties in the Iron Range. They were light blue in 2016. Since 2016, the Minnesota DFL has been screwing the hard-rock miners over some mine expansion.
Six Dem mayors in the Iron Range have endorsed Trump. Trump flips the Iron Range and then flips Minnesota. How many ballots in how many car trunks can the DFL try to get counted? We'll see.
J Infect Dis. 2020 (In press)
Immunosenescence and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Development
"...The multifactorial reduction of immune function in the elderly may well prove to be the Achilles heel of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, since such vaccines, if they do not adequately protect the population at highest risk of Covid-related death, are likely to have little impact on COVID-related mortality, stress on ICU capacity and economic impact. The over-65 age group responds poorly to most vaccines, and to-date, efforts to overcome this by increasing dosage or adding adjuvants have had only limited success. The likelihood of protecting the elderly by raising herd immunity through vaccination of the younger age groups is low, since the necessary vaccine coverage rate would probably need to reach >90% as with measles, a rate difficult to achieve given current vaccine hesitancy and antivaccination attitudes prevalent in the United States and Europe.
Immunosenescence characterizes both cellular and humoral immune responses and when billions of dollars are being spent on risk-based vaccine candidates, it would be appropriate and essential that research targeting immunosenescence and ways to overcome it also be generously funded.
David Nalin, MD
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa564/5901694
(With link to free, full pdf.)
On the way back from the transfer station we stopped into the sporting goods store for some .22 long and a brace of BB guns. My housemate is going camping next week and needs ammo. His buddy has a new AK so hopefully he's got some 7.62.
There was no .223 and, in general, the shelves were bare. There was like six people in the gun-buying line. We bought a pair of $50 BB guns so we can lay down suppressive fire with the effin' squirrels screwing with our bird feeders. Chances of us hitting a squirrel are low, but we'll see. Just a few years ago I had to drown seven squirrels who were getting into my coon trap.
So, one of the females in our little household commune is like if you guys wing a squirrel, I'm going to nurse it back to health. I'm like, in my house? Are you challenging me to drown wounded squirrels behind your back?
I don't like the squirrels screwing with my bird feeders and bombarding me with walnuts while I'm on my deck. They're not endangered. I am perfectly happy with trapping these rats with furry tails and drowning them. With two BB guns, me and my buddy are going to try and use suppressive fire to see if we can train them. It's certainly more sporting.
I'm always glad I don't live right in Portland.
The infection vs casualty rate of Coronavirus 2019 might be interesting but the common influenza rates mean nothing. The problem, of course, was not Dr. Fauci conflating rates - the seriousness came from failure on the part of the Trump Administration to put together an effective Covid-19 testing program last February.
Trump had already fired the competent Pandemic Council simply because they were experts appointed by Obama and why would we need a Pandemic Council - whatever that is? Adding insult to injury, our mentally-deficient president then put Jared in charge of what-turned-out-to-be a joke of a Federal procurement and testing program. Trump appointed a reduced and inexperienced staff to run the CDC and then suddenly decided to turn the daily schedule of Covid-19 broadcasts into his reelection campaign.
A full-blown national testing program necessary to put some meaning into both IFR and CFR has yet to become reality. It is indeed a long, long way from February to September and 200,000 citizens are dead. But lets blame Anthony Fauci!
"Oil slick threatens the coast"
The Democrats had a great Covid 19 response.
Go to Chinatown and hug a Chinaman! They are not a virus, yo!
Trump yard signs take a turn in rural Ohio pic. Probably it was put out by the man of the house.
The color blue taken to the next level... nice
Trump had already fired the competent Pandemic Council simply because they were experts
The only competent federal council that ever existed right? A pandemic council that failed to adequately restock PPE supplies. Great job, that.
And if you believe the fatality rate is 1% there should be 800,000 dead.
Whats up with that. Never mind, I forgot...experts.
Tesla trading has been spectacular even for this market. Not only did shares jump above $2,000, they jumped above $2,500; hit a high just a few bucks shy of $2,700 late one night, early one morning, maybe 4 a.m. Tokyo trading, presumably. That was the very calendar day a 5-1 split occurred. So $2,500 is now $500.
Did anyone get that 500 for their stock? It was available for one minute shortly before trading hours closed on Monday 8/31. That was the night it jumped to 538.75 in overseas trading. On Tuesday, the stock was 500-502 for two to three minutes in the morning, around 10:30.
That was it. About four minutes max of trading-hour time to get that 500. On Wednesday, Tesla stock began dropping like a rock to the low 400s. Dropped into the 300s on Friday before closing at 418. Pre-market trading today is mid-300s; touched 350 on the low so far. That represents a 33% drop in five trading sessions if it continues to trade there once Nasdaq opens.
A fascinating data point for the poster child of this market mania.
The paper above calls out the people for doing the conflating of IFR and CFR. They don't name the person who did this before Congress, but I know the name because I remember the testimony. It was Anthony Fauci.
This is one reason we will never untangle the fatality rates for the Chinese virus. Too much politics. It is also the reason why HCQ will not be credited as a treatment. Politics.
I don't get the hoopla and value people put in testing. There is a known serious false positive rate, because the tests are too sensitive, but ignoring that, and assuming we had perfectly accurate tests, what does that accomplish?
You go get tested, but the result if negative is valid for only that moment in time when they did the test. You could get it after the test on the way out the door, or at the store later that day, etc. You could even have it, but not long enough to trigger a positive. It just gives people a false sense of security that makes them more likely to catch and transmit afterward. Even with a perfect test readily available, you have no idea about anybody's infection status except those testing positive, who tell you they are, or those with antibodies if you know about it.
If the test is positive, it only affects the next 10-14 days, and only you. The people you are protecting by quarantining are still surrounded by a whole world of contacts who nobody knows their current infection status.
The rules have gotten ridiculous. We go out here in Vegas all the time. We went hiking this weekend and then to breakfast. You can't walk into a restaurant without a mask, but when you do, you are likely the only person inside wearing one, because once you sit down, you can naturally take it off to eat, which everyone does immediately and they stay off the whole time. So, I walked in with my mask on into a room with maybe 50 people without masks, and the greeter and I are the only ones mumbling through masks like idiots.
My advice: Just say no to testing.
Milwaukie guy said...
On the way back from the transfer station we stopped into the sporting goods store for some .22 long and a brace of BB guns. My housemate is going camping next week and needs ammo. His buddy has a new AK so hopefully he's got some 7.62.
I'm wondering just how many Althouse fans know what a transfer station is. Until I moved to ruralville about 20 years ago I would have been scratching my head, associating "transfer station" where you changed from one subway line to another, not a place you com back from.
Tesla trading has been spectacular even for this market.
Go back and look at the record. It happens every year. There are at least two bull markets, and two bear markets for Tesla every year.
I think most of it is profit taking. But not all. Look at ARK Investments. They'd like to own as much Tesla stock as possible, but they are limited to 10% of their holdings in any one stock. So every time Tesla stocks go up, ARK is forced to sell some of their holdings. I bet the same is true for other funds.
Depending on what is revealed later this month on battery day, this might be the perfect time to buy.
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