All conventions are a mix of reaching out to wavering voters and shoring up your base. The D convention, especially Biden's speech, was perhaps 65/35 in the reaching-out direction. Night 1 of the RNC was about 50/50. From the list of speakers, the rest of the RNC might be 35/65. If I were Trump, I would in theory weight the reaching-out-to-swing-voters part much more heavily. His base is already with him, and will likely turn out no matter what he does. But, it also isn't a very large base, even with its advantages in the Electoral College. But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist. Which explains why he's down 9 points in the polls, of course....Well, we will see if he's down 9 points in the polls after the convention is over. Some of the appeal to the base is effective with swing voters. I'm a swing voter — a swing voter in Wisconsin — and I was disappointed in the Democratic convention because there wasn't anything about the rampant disorder in the cities. I want safety and security! I expect the police to show up and protect us when we call them. And learning how to use a gun was something I chose to do this summer.
AND: "C-SPAN's livestream of the first night of the Republican National Convention has attracted nearly 440,000 views, marking a substantial increase over the start of the Democratic National Convention, which drew 76,000 views. The numbers for Monday night come ahead of traditional TV ratings from Nielsen Media Research, which will be released on Tuesday afternoon."
पोस्ट्स
१३९ टिप्पण्या:
Concern trolling it's called.
Pretty funny coming from the guy who had Hillary winning right up to Election Day.
If the news business was performance based, he'd be fired. What if the WI basketball coach lost 25 games this season? He'd be fired.
"Thanks Nate! We'll get right on that!" Nobody
Yes Nate, the election result will turn on the number and type of speeches at the Rep convention. Jeez.
Nate Silver is not a stupid guy. He must be hard up for something on which to opine.
Nate Silver is giving unsolicited political advice! Oh goody! Can't wait, thanks!
Nate "I don't hate, I aggregate" Silver.
Perhaps, Nate can advise Slow Joe on how to stop drooling into his oatmeal.
"But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist."
Um, he's just making shit up here. He has no clue how "the pandemic, the economy" are going to play with swing voters in the battleground states. I assume he has some stats to back up his assertion that "at least half the country" thinks Trump is racist. But he's talking about "half the country" when Trump's job is to win a handful of battleground states. Presumably those who think Trump is racist tend to disproportionately live in electorally safe states, like New York and California. What a fascinatingly innumerate comment from a supposedly brilliant statistician.
Nate is showing he has no clue and is just being a piss-poor pundit.
nate aluminium, lol, remember when he said the gop should be for higher taxes,
Wow FIFTY TIMES THE AUDIENCE seems like a small indicator of enthusiasm. But I’m still dwelling on how lame Joe’s ABC interview was, and I’m wondering if THAT made it on air it was because ABC assessed it wouldn’t hurt Joey too much. And YHAT begs the question, what was so damning they left it on the editing room floor? Wouldn’t THAT be interesting.
Althouse, are you really a swing voter? I assumed based on your stated views (i.e., Biden disqualifying himself by promoting the "fine people" hoax) that you would either vote for Trump or stay at home. I guess that's a swing of sorts. Like half a swing.
Or, if Biden comes out and apologizes for his promotion of the "fine people" hoax, perhaps he will have re-qualified himself for the office. Then would you be truly up-for-grabs as a voter?
Definitely concern trolling.
"Republican National Convention has attracted nearly 440,000 views, marking a substantial increase over the start of the Democratic National Convention, which drew 76,000 views."
This is a much more interesting data point than the daily polls. Why is there a 6-fold difference between the two. That's crazy. They can't all be hate viewers. Does this reflect the enthusiasm gap? Does the GOP just put on a better show?
Wilbur: "Yes Nate, the election result will turn on the number and type of speeches at the Rep convention. Jeez.
Nate Silver is not a stupid guy. He must be hard up for something on which to opine."
This is a significant "tell" that the dems know they had their a**es handed to them last night by the republicans.
It is very difficult to find policy-based or substantive criticisms from the moron dems (exemplified at Althouse by the comments of LLR-lefty Chuck and Howard, amongst others) regarding the republican proposals (there was more policy discussion in terms understood by voters of all stripes in the first 60 minutes of the republican convention than in 4 days with the marxists) so the lefties/LLR-lefties have to revert to superficial and dumb (par for the course for them) "analysis".
In the case of Donna Brazile, the dems are so aware of how bad last night went that in a back and forth with Tammy Bruce this morning Brazile tried to make the entire conversation about how Tammy somehow "erased" Donna's heritage and experience!!!
LOL
It was hilarious. And then Brazile, after leveling the idiotic charge, then filibustered and shouted over Bruce for the remainder of the time remaining.
Classic democrat/LLR-lefty.
I guess she was just "reclaiming her time"....on an interview show.....
Apparently Nate Silver thinks "HATE TRUMP" is 65% reaching out to swing voters and 35% shoring up the Democrat base.
The nature of bias is that the purveyor of bias is unaware of their bias.
I want leftwing antifa goons to ruin everything.
don't you?
The only way to prove you are not racist is to stand shoulder to shoulder with leftwing terrorist toddler poop-flinging antifa mobsters.
The only reason anyone in this country thinks that Trump is a racist is because of the incessant 24/7 screeching of the Democrat party in league with the MSM.
Tell a big lie long enough...
I will say it again, Trump might be one of our least racist presidents.
P.S. I heard Nate Silver sucks cock behind the 7-11 for $20 a go. Pass it on.
"I was disappointed in the Democratic convention"
So you thought that it might have been better? Dems can still do things that "disappoint" you?
"because there wasn't anything about the rampant disorder in the cities"
Why should there be? Dems are in charge there but bear no responsibility, and America is racist, so disorder is good. What's there to say?
"I want safety and security!"
Yes, you and other nice women in America. But one party doesn't give a damn about you and your petty bourgeois sensibilities. You have a choice: abortion uber alles or safety and security. So, what'll it be?
As I've read, Democrats and their MSM carnival barkers are all hasing sads after last night. Look for less coverage of this convention and a ramp up of covering the latest incident of a criminal with arrest warrants doing the dumbshit things criminals do to forestall being taken into custody and a hurricane.
Highest average IQ in America, it's because of all that merit. Let's look at the facts.
1) No one cares about political conventions but the base. So it makes sense to appeal to the base and gin up enthusiasm, particularly if you're Joe Biden. If no one's heard of you? Sure, do a lot of outreach. But are you telling me the various freakshows and Linda Sarsour terrorist types represent actual Americans? Ok, SJW.
2) Trump's base looks an awful lot like the swing voters he needs. The working class has more in common with most of the middle class than the elite does. And it's working class issues- trade, immigration, basic safety- where Trump shines.
3) I fully expect the coming election to destroy what's left of Nate Silver's credibility. And the United States as a united political entity, but let's not digress.
The D convention, especially Biden's speech, was perhaps 65/35 in the reaching-out direction.
If you mean telling people Trump was horrible while implying his voters were moreso, I'd say 85/15.
Nate Silver is a good numbers cruncher and he can be relied on to tell you what the numbers do and do not say. He is not, however, a noted political theorist or persuader.
Stay in your lane, Nate.
The Trump plan is to keep the base foaming, suppress minority and low income Democrat voters and hack the voting machines. He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm.
Mike Pompeo will address the RNC from Jerusalem tonight.
Let's put that in Nate's swing voter outreach basket.
Ann: "learning how to use a gun was something I chose to do this summer"
OK, Boomer.
We are of an age, you and I. I use the expression to refer to the noise a firearm makes when used as intended in humorous juxtaposition to your age, and mine.
And I hope to make the point that you are a few decades slow in taking up this one particular adult responsibility. No doubt you've made up for it in other important ways. But it's a bit weird to hear. Like hearing an otherwise competent adult from a city declare with pride he's never owned, or maybe even driven, a car. Or cleaned a freshly caught fish, or maybe even baited a fishhook.
I suppose this sort of thing is why younger people than either of us enjoy playing the party game -- "Never have I ever..."
I'm a swing voter — a swing voter in Wisconsin — and I was disappointed in the Democratic convention because there wasn't anything about the rampant disorder in the cities.
You think like a woman. There's nothing about structural matters in the party you sometimes swing to, and it's all about what happens at this instant.
Women shouldn't vote on anything bigger than a neighborhood matter. They're probably better than men at that size, but poisonous in national matters.
They could do national matters if they had any clue about self-awareness.
You're a swing voter? I could swear Biden said something about Charlottesville and Nazis and Trump that you termed "disqualifying?"
They are already blunting these C-SPAN numbers by saying overall viewership of the RNC first day was down 15% from the DNC first day.
Trump's appeal to women is a gift from the dems and their riots, not anything Trump's doing. Women can't read Trump, who is all about structural matters that produce good results instead of instant results in spite of side effects.
Wilbur said...
Yes Nate, the election result will turn on the number and type of speeches at the Rep convention. Jeez.
Nate Silver is not a stupid guy. He must be hard up for something on which to opine.
-----------=============
or win back cred by sabotaging Trump?
But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist.
I really don't understand these hypothetical swing voters or if they even really exist in great numbers. It's sort of frustrating to try to imagine one. I picture a middle class suburban woman in some swing district. And to try to imagine what someone like that thinks is difficult for me.
The pandemic itself is basically an act of god. Trump isn't god... is he? Now, obviously you can judge his response to it one way or the other. But in order to do so you'd have to weigh that against how you imagine Joe (or whoever) would perform. Does anybody really believe that Joe would've done "better"? If so, how exactly?
The current state of the economy is clearly a direct result of the pandemic. Again, what has Trump done versus what do you imagine Biden would do that would be so much better. Personally I don't see Biden (or anyone) as some sort of miracle worker who could've somehow saved the economy. Trump has a pretty recalcitrant house and Biden might not have, so theoretically Biden could have passed more bailouts that would doubtless have been larded with all sorts of Democrat nonsense that would have done littlein terms of the actual economy other than spend even more money we don't have.
As to whether you believe Trump's a "racist", I mean... based on what? The infamous "fine people" hoax? People who really, truly believe that Trump is racist (that is, they're not just saying that they think he's racist or that he's just using racist "dog whistles" or whatever) at this point there's probably not much that can be done to convince them otherwise. It seems unlikely that a speech from Herschel Walker or whoever is going to convince them otherwise at this point.
No matter how much I toy with the idea of not voting, Democrats keep pushing me to vote for Trump, in their own words, I don’t even listen to anything Trump says.
Meanwhile, at the RNC, night 1:
Andrew Pollack
Nate Silver proves that it is HE not Trump who fails to understand where the swing voter middle is in America. If he seriously thinks Hershel Walker, Tim Scott, the Cuban guy, Nikki Haley and that couple on the porch who had the audacity to defend their home from a dangerous mob is NOT the middle (and a lot more) of the country, it only shows how profoundly within a bubble the media is regarding the nation they live in. They really do think all their hectoring of America has moved the needle. I have not and do not believe that is so. What happened last night was the mediated reality gave way to the unmediated reality that is there for the taking. IF Trump does not shoot himself in the foot, always a big if.
"Nate Silver is not a stupid guy. “
This isn’t about smart/stupid. TDS is like a neurosis, and lots of intelligent people nonetheless get neuroses. Not to mention the fact that if he questions the narrative that has been dictated by whoever it is that is pulling the strings at the DNC, he likely becomes a pariah. Shunned by the cult that has given him is cushy life.
Silver is a liberal democrat, and he's giving trump the same advice the liberal media gives EVERY Republican Candidate since Reagan. "Ignore the Base, they have no where to go, reach out to the middle, be more moderate, etc."
Later, if the Republican Candidate becomes President, then the Liberal media changes that advice to: "You have to be moderate and be President of ALL the people. Ignore those Conservatives who voted for you. Reach out of the D's and be bi-partisan". .
Needless to say the Democrats are NEVER told to reach out to Conservatives and Moderates and ignore the liberals.
BTW, I saw ZERO reach out on the D's part to "moderates" and "The middle". Their base is made up of racial and sexual minorities and they DOMINATED the convention. How many white working/middle class Union guys were at the convention? Where was the discussion of border security, or protecting workers jobs against outsourcing and globalization? Where was the discussion about Health care? Where was any talk of defense or keeping us out of unnecessary wars? The whole D convention was "Fire up the base".
or maybe the D's thought putting up a lot of unpopular RINO's like Christie todd whitman, kasich, and Powell in an attempt to reassure Wall Street was reaching out ot the middle.
Wilbur said...
Nate Silver is not a stupid guy. He must be hard up for something on which to opine.
Nope, not stupid. But like Matt Lewis he's never been able to bring himself to the realization that not everyone thinks like he does.
The front page of fivethirtyeight.com is pretty interesting right now. Not a lot of statistical analysis, but a whole lot of opinion.
I listened to Trump immediately but did parts of the rest of the Convention this morning. I feared there would be long, boring speeches - why do that to yourself? But there were a lot of interesting speeches and kept short and to the point. And some paired like the McCloskeys and Maximo Alvarez, Tim Scott and Vernon Jones. Free People, Free Minds - I like that. It may be that a moment of national reconciliation is at hand. Around 1900, then or thereabouts, the whites in the North and South reconciled. In the Civil War Sherman's army took all the food from a strip of the South 60 miles wide and three hundred miles long between Atlanta and Savannah. The Army burned Atlanta, all the plantation houses between Atlanta and Savannah and any house near which there was sniper activity. Then they marched north, still seizing all the food they could find, and burned Columbia, South Carolina. Meanwhile Sheridan burned and destroyed in the Shenandoah valley so that as he proudly remarked "A crow would have to carry its own provisions if it flew down it." And there was a song about it all, "Marching Through Georgia" which used to be sung at GAR meetings. The bitterness all this caused was reconciled around 1900 as the nation's set ways melted in the crucible of industrialization and the need for new ways.The reconciliation included the North agreeing not to oppose what the South did in the way of segregation. Even, a segregationist President was elected, Wilson. And even when segregation was abolished somehow there wasn't a new reconciliation of the elements of American society which included the members of the black community. But now everything seems to be in crucible again, melting, changing - China, covid, the fall of great cities, school shutdowns. And as I watched the RNC I felt that it was seizing the moment to work toward that new reconciliation we need, when we all agree that we all are part of the best of the Dream, if we choose it.
Ann you don't seem much like a swing voter. I pegged you as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and will vote for him again this year. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Sorry Ann.
"swing voter"? No way!
I can appreciate the professor’s swing vote status in Wisconsin. But how you do you fix Madison? Fire the entire faculty and administration of UW? If I were a Madison resident sick of all that is happening to the town, I would blame all the people to voted for Governor Tony Evers out of resentment for Scott Walker. As long as there is a puppet liberal beta cuck male Democrat in the Wisconsin Governor’s mansion, Madison will continue to spiral downward. I’d imagine a majority of residents are enjoying it. It’s what they voted for, no?
I don't even think he's right about the percentages of "reaching out" DNC vs RNC he says happened: 65/35 DNC reaching out??? That's the most ludicrous. But the 50/50 RNC first night seems awfully low too. If he isn't even going to "rate" that objectively when we have all seen it what's the rest of his analysis worth?
(Unless I'm off base. I say 25/75 DNC and 65/35 RNC first night. Post your percentages and we'll compare ... In any event: two movies.)
Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist.
Really? At least half the country thinks Trump is racist? (Certainly, Nate and his buddies think that way, but they ain't half the country.) And nobody with a functioning brain stem (which leaves out a lot of Dems, alas) really blames Trump for the pandemic or the economy.
Political pundits, pollsters, thoughtful political analysts, have all been wrong for 5 years, concerning President Trump.
They refuse to see what has happened and is happening. All these "experts" refuse to examine why President Trump was elected. And this is AFTER President Trump told them, again, last week. The President, when asked about the verbal dressing down he was given by Obama, responded clearly. (paraphrasing) 'Obama still doesn't get it. He is the reason I was elected, and he still has not learned that simple fact'.
To lazy to look it up, but how far behind was President Trump 4 years ago after the Dem convention? Behind, more, I'm guessing. Explain to my how repeating success is a bad thing.
First night of the Republican convention was a reach out to blacks, Hispanics, and suburban moms.
What exactly in the Democrat convention made it 65% aimed at wavering voters? I didn’t watch it, have only read commentary, and it seems the Democrats went out of their way to avoid addressing the riots they support that the suburban moms don’t.
First I read that AA learned how to handle a hand gun in response to perceived threat this summer.
"Activists, largely from Hispanic neighborhoods on the city’s west side, “pointed to the city’s surging summer gun violence as they urged both members of the City Council and Congress to rally behind police officers they claim have been outnumbered and attacked at recent protests,” according to the Chicago Sun-Times."
Sounds like some swing voters right there.
"Republican National Convention has attracted nearly 440,000 views, marking a substantial increase over the start of the Democratic National Convention, which drew 76,000 views."
----------------------
Data point: We watched mostly PBS since we don't have cable options. We could stand the "journalists" and commentators opining almost completely favorably for the Democrats during their convention because we expected it. Last night it was the same people but of course completely opposite commentary. The final straw was cutting away from Vernon Jones' speech to discuss how racist Trump is or isn't. "Is" was the consensus. We switched over to C-Span for the rest of the convention. Blissful.
Blogger iowan2 said...
To lazy to look it up, but how far behind was President Trump 4 years ago after the Dem convention? Behind, more, I'm guessing. Explain to my how repeating success is a bad thing.
8/25/20, 1:17 PM
RealClearPolitics has a 2016/2020 poll comparison chart.
Right now Hillary was at an average .5% higher than Biden is.
In other words, Trump is doing half a percent better in 2020 than he was doing at this time in 2016.
seems like there was some Life Long Republican here, from Detroit or such...
and he was all the time going on and on (and on and on (and on and on)) about how:
President Trump should do this, and that, and the other thing...
and when you looked at them, Everything suggested was something that would have help democrats
Maybe Trump's Smart to ignore gift horses?
Blogger iowan2 said...
To lazy to look it up, but how far behind was President Trump 4 years ago after the Dem convention? Behind, more, I'm guessing. Explain to my how repeating success is a bad thing.
8/25/20, 1:17 PM
RealClearPolitics has a 2016/2020 poll comparison chart.
Right now Hillary was at an average .5% higher than Biden is.
In other words, Trump is doing half a percent better in 2020 than he was doing at this time in 2016.
Readering: "First I read that AA learned how to handle a hand gun in response to perceived threat this summer."
In all seriousness, every adult should know how to handle a gun because you never know when you might find yourself in a situation where your survival or safety depends on understanding the basics.
How many movies have you seen where the bad guy confronts the novice holding the gun and then grabs the gun and says something like "you still had the safety on"?
Similar to everyone needs to know how to swim.
It seems to me that this is the main reason we pay taxes - for ORDER. We need order and relative safety to live our lives in a manner we need. All the other stuff: welfare, public spaces, etc - these are nice things we can have because we're affluent, and we're affluent, in part, because we've had 'order'. And we want all our citizens to have order, and to be treated fairly and humanely. Including our Black citizens (residents too) and our poor.
The people will not long tolerate a government that tolerates destruction like this, I think.
bonerici said...
Ann you don't seem much like a swing voter. I pegged you as someone who voted for Trump in 2016 and will vote for him again this year. Correct me if I'm wrong.
8/25/20, 1:05 PM
If you've been around as long as some of us you'd know.
She voted Obama in 2008. Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016.
BTW, I think there's far more evidence that Biden is racist than Trump.
Nate's got a theory.
Trump's got a plan: Honoring the Great American Story.
Day one: Land of Promise--Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Maximo Alvarez, Herschel Walker, Kristi Noem, Vernon Jones, the McCloskeys
Day two: Land of Opportunity
Day three: Land of Heroes
Day Four: Land of Greatness
I might watch every night just to cheer up. These are great speakers and great stories, and they give the lie to all the nonsense put out by the MSM every single day.
Trump is following up on his Mt. Rushmore event as I hoped he would. America is not perfect, but we get better through the efforts of everyday heroes.
Sen Tim Scott asked how he, a black man with no special background, beat a son of Strom Thurmond in the GOP primary in a majority white district in his first run for Congress. His answer? "[T]he evolution of the southern heart. The voters judged me on the content of my character, not the color of my skin."
I recommend watching the speeches from last night if you want to regain perspective on our country and its promise. Don't miss Herschel Walker, Sen. Scott, Nikki Haley, Maximo Alvarez, or Vernon Jones. I think Kristi Noem will be on again Wednesday night.
"expert" is a word that has a different meaning these days than it used to.
"I want safety and security! I expect the police to show up and protect us when we call them."
Lot of recent stories of people calling 911 and being told they're on their own. Democrat mayors, including Satya Rhodes-Conway, no longer support the police.
Please vote accordingly.
Got to get to work on propaganda for my brother's city council run and I haven't read anything on this thread so maybe apropos of nothing....
I read an article in the Spectator this morning about Trump's "potential landslide agenda." It's pretty good.
One line in it talks about drive-by shootings getting classified as federal domestic terrorism crimes. Brilliant. An end run around Democrat pinko DAs elected with Soros and Teresa Heinz Kerry's boodle!
It's brilliant because it's true. Trust me, gangbangers have close to zero range time. By definition, it's in a moving vehicle, often with dudes doing the classic one-handed sideways thing, simply emptying their 15-round mags.
There is a term in Chicago for the children who get shot or killed. They're called Mushrooms, because they just sort of popped up in the spray and pray.
Domestic terrorists. You betcha. Really hard time for the cockroaches. Send 'em to Gitmo.
Lots of polls show Trump winning the Independents by anywhere from 4 to 10 points. He carried Independents by 4 points in 2016 and that worked out pretty well. Only way to get to showing him 10 points down overall is to willfully oversample Dems. Wishful thinking.
For those who don't know, Althouse is a person not very interested in politics who is interested in how people communicate and interact. She doesn't like Trump at all, but she thinks much of the criticism of him is transparently stupid, and she is interested in how he communicates. She is more contrarian than anything else.
She believes strongly in freedom speech as a way to move forward safely in a political and social community...but never forget she wants to hear your best case. She is a true child of JS Mill ("He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that.").Don't bore her or blow smoke at her. She runs an open blog--you can say almost anything--but she has banned a few trolls who clearly intend to be disruptive. The commenters here lean right in general, but there are a few doughty, fearless, and persistent lefties.
She told us several months ago that she voted for Hillary in 2016 because Trump was just too weird.
First I read that AA learned how to handle a hand gun in response to perceived threat this summer.
I just renewed my property insurance, along with a $million liability umbrella. We had 120mph straight line winds come through here 2 weeks ago...but its never happened before...Because I'm irrational and paranoid.
Some people never get it.
n and the need for new ways.The reconciliation included the North agreeing not to oppose what the South did in the way of segregation.
Actually, I think the 1876 election was the turning point. The Republicans ended Reconstruction and let the Democrats resume control of the South in return for the election of Hayes.
The 1876 United States presidential election was the 23rd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 1876, in which Republican nominee Rutherford B. Hayes faced Democrat Samuel J. Tilden. It was one of the most contentious and controversial presidential elections in American history, and gave rise to the Compromise of 1877 by which the Democrats conceded the election to Hayes in return for an end to Reconstruction and the withdrawal of federal troops from the South. After a controversial post-election process, Hayes was declared the winner.
The KKK followed.
"there wasn't anything about the rampant disorder in the cities."
Yea, I wonder why they left that out. They did show lots of support for those doing the "disorder", which is a very polite way of saying murder, theft, and mayhem. It's rougher language than "mostly peaceful" though.
I applaud you for that. Virtually every living thing has some defense mechanism, except humans in Democrat run states and cities. It's either flight or fight, and lets face it, you ain't likely to outrun some mush-head high on crack and communism.
rcocean: "Silver is a liberal democrat, and he's giving trump the same advice the liberal media gives EVERY Republican Candidate since Reagan."
If I might expound upon your remarks, think about after the 2012 election where obama beat the snot out of obama-lite/Democrat JV team/Swampy Romney.
What did the establishment republicans do? Well, those guys put their little heads together and crafted an election post-mortem report (LLR-lefty Chuck used to reference this report often in 2015/2016 and you'll understand why in just a moment) that called for the republicans to abandon basic principles and become Democrat-lite.
Of course, it was always assumed by these establishment "republicans" that any future republican candidate would continue the tradition of not really fighting back too hard since it makes everyone in the establishment rather uncomfortable.
So Trump violated every "rule" these establishment hack/Washington General losers created and won.
Here's a link to something you probably haven't seen. Just watch the first 23 minutes of the Yahoo 2016 full election coverage headed up by Katie Couric.
Pay close attention to the horrific and execrable Katie Packer ("republican" consultant) and Frank Luntz who went into detail as to how Donald Trump had lost the election and the Senate in a blowout......LOL
Remember, this is at the beginning of the night when the election returns had not yet started coming in and all these "experts" could still posture as "experts"...for a few more hours....until it all collapsed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGbXHbNiOcU&t=27218s
"BTW, I think there's far more evidence that Biden is racist than Trump."
Easily shown. I don't even know what proof there is of Trump being racist, but Biden has insulted Blacks plenty powerfully in just the last few weeks. That musical number with the wizard of West Hollywood in shorts backed up by a white cadaver dug up from the 60's even pissed off my 200,000 year old African roots.
Isn't Trump up 10% among independents?
D.D. Driver said...
"This is a much more interesting data point than the daily polls. Why is there a 6-fold difference between the two. That's crazy. They can't all be hate viewers. Does this reflect the enthusiasm gap? Does the GOP just put on a better show?"
The numbers are viewers on C-Span, not all viewers.
My guess is that (1) Democrats are more likely to watch on CNN or MSNBC or a broadcast network and (2) In order to watch the RNC without networks cutting away, skipping or talking over the speeches, you had to watch on C-Span.
Plus, I'd imagine in today's on-line world, a lot of people watched selected speeches today, rather than watching the whole thing live last night. I did.
All these comments about how Ann votes or should vote or if she is a swing voter, etc. It is funny. Of all the mysterious things about her, this is one of the least interesting, actually. I am more amazed at her ability to get up and take a photo of the sunrise each morning. It's like Augie in Smoke. Like a say, a mystery.
Very simple. Nate's a statistician. Do you want a statistician to tell you how to run a presidential campaign or do you want to leave it in the hands of a guy who beat a sure thing when Nate said he only had a 29% chance?
Yeah I've been reading althouse for a while but I'm not a regular reader just off and on. I didn't realize she is an actual swing voter.
"Mike Pompeo will address the RNC from Jerusalem tonight."
Jerusalem? As in Israel?
That can't be right...Trump is a racist and racists (especially Democrat racists) hate Jews.
Althouse is saying that Trump is already reaching out to the very fine people vote. Not that Nate’s advice is bad, but that Trump is already doing it, and Nate doesn’t recognize that. BLM is definitively eroding support for Biden among swing voters, as it also eroded support for Clinton in 2016. Fox has essentially given BLM a primetime show.
But four more years of Trump will mean more BLM, not less. When what is burning upsets you, remember that Trump is fanning the flames.
I'm almost positive I'll vote for Trump. I have had my limit of Biden-supporting mobs trashing Wisconsin cities. Democrats in Dane County have for years campaigned on stopping racism, or helping blacks, and they've done very little for them (but they have great bike paths!) and the schools here for them are terrible. If I were King, they'd all be fired. Too much of Madison is brainwashed into thinking Democrat Party is the only way to vote. As it is, all I can do is vote against the tide.
To gain my vote, Biden would to show me he can actually lead. So far all he's done is what he's been told. And he's hiding too. A weak non-leader is not what this Country needs.
The Dem Convention was a dreadlocked white girl burning down buildings and telling you why you deserved it and how you were always going to deserve it.
The Republican Convention is a big boobed chick handing you a beer and telling you that hey, she loves America, too.
My cynical view of the seemingly huge disparity in the size of the viewing audience: 364,000 "mostly peaceful" protestors spent their evenings in the streets during the DNC.
"BTW, I think there's far more evidence that Biden is racist than Trump."
Yes, but that really depends on how you define "racist". The word has taken on denotations that it never had before, at least in some circles. Several years ago, you could have an intelligent discussion in which all parties could agree that both white nationalists and black nationalists were racist because they believed in the inherent superiority of their home team. Then various critical studies thinkers weighed in and turned the the discussion to certain historically oppressed groups (taken in a very narrow way if you look at the sweep of human history), so that now many (probably your college age children) would assert that historically oppressed groups cannot commit racism.
However, any fair assessment would say that Donald Trump looks at what he believes to be the interests of the United States and the American people without regard to skin tone. He appears to believe that all Americans should have equal rights. He believes that our society should be safe and orderly. He is against voter fraud. He is in favor of legal immigration. He is not in favor of open borders. He thinks we ought to know who we are admitting as immigrants. He is married to an immigrant, and his beloved mother immigrated from Scotland.
I can't figure out what Joe Biden thinks about black people today, except that they as a group (should they be a group?) are very important clients of the Democratic Party. I don't think Joe is too smart, so I doubt he thinks much about anything.
I would in theory weight the reaching-out-to-swing-voters part much more heavily
What would it take to sway Humpty Dumpty? The voters evaluate a constellation of special, peculiar, and negotiable positions.
It's weird that many of you believe that these Democrat media people look around at the facts on the ground and give their honest considered opinion. Consider these possibilities:
1) TV says Trump's a racist, so who are you, the TV viewer to disagree?
2) Black people on the TV say he's a racist, and since you're not a racist you believe the black people on TV.
3) New York experts on TV says Biden is ahead, so of course, you don't want your friends to think you're a racist, so you ought to go with the experts from New York and vote for Biden.
4) The TV tells you all the protests are due to racism, so they'll stop if non-racist Biden wins.
They're working from a script.
It's gaslighting. All of it.
correction: special, peculiar, negotiable, and common positions.
Isn't funny how the Resistance, aka Democrats, screech "Love trumps hate" and "Hate has no place here", but people like Howard are always saying
"The Trump plan is to keep the base foaming, suppress minority and low income Democrat voters and hack the voting machines. He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm."
and calling Trump supporters "Rubes" and "Enemy of the State"
?
The Dims have always been racists.
Narr
They just switched their preferences
Let's say Nate knew some super secret thing that would guarantee that Trump would win. Does anyone really believe he would tell anybody. He wants Trump to lose with all his heart, so just shut up, Nate.
Look I really don't know who "Nate Silver" is and why he's viewed which such authority? Wiki says: "...Nathaniel Read Silver is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections..." and "...He obtained much of his fame when he successfully predicted state results in the 2008 Elections... OK - I'll take their word for it. So a statistic geek who parleyed his unknown "baseball" shtick into the political realm and got one easy election mostly correct? Fine! One question, what the hell does a statistician know about the 'psychology of crowds/people'? [Don't bore me with 'Wisdom of Crowds' read it pure B.S. Furthermore, all you have to do is read one basic 'Social psychology' text and you know how difficult it is to measure 'Mobs'. Prediction skills during times of 'mobs' is estimated by statisticians (real ones not fake ones like Silver) to be zero. Why, because the 'data' needed to get a prediction correct is changing by every second. Outcomes based on assumptions are always questionable when it concerns humans.
It says right here:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility,
provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
Riots and violent protests are not "domestic tranquility".
Howard? Clearly Shemp!
"She voted Obama in 2008. Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016"
She may stink at picking Presidents, and that record is so bad I wonder why I even come here, but her commentors are awesome.
wildswan- great comment.
iowan2 said...
The President, when asked about the verbal dressing down he was given by Obama, responded clearly. (paraphrasing) 'Obama still doesn't get it. He is the reason I was elected, and he still has not learned that simple fact'.
8/25/20, 1:14 PM
Obama "dressing down" Trump. I picture a 4 year old, fussing at daddy while he watches TV, oblivious to the fuss.
The guy was an empty suit as POTUS and is pulling a Jimmy Carter as former POTUS. Interesting how it is only former Democrat POTUS that can't keep their mouths or opinions to themselves after they leave office. There used to be honor among former POTUS that they said nothing about those that follow them. Since Carter [that I remember] the Ds don't have honor.
Some people call Trump a racist because he describes some Black women, like Maxine Water, "Low IQ." It's not like Mad Max has never called Trump and his supporters nasty names, nor called for their destruction. Never mind his outreach to Black people, his economic policies.
The style guide should read:
Nate Silver (D-NYT)
He is not immune to the normal biases.
How many times has Nate Silver (D-NYT) talked about voter registration numbers?
Or the unprecedented support this Republican president gets from blacks?
Or latinos?
Nate Silver (D-NYT) will probably tell us Trump is an underdog the day before Trump wins another election.
Hardin: Women especially shouldn’t vote on neighborhood things. They’re completely insufferable. They’re the reason we can’t have school or church or concerts and are going to have to wear masks until the end of time.
"And even when segregation was abolished somehow there wasn't a new reconciliation of the elements of American society which included the members of the black community."
But there was. The old segregationists dropped that position, and largely stayed in Congress as Great Society Democrats. Black politicians were elected and served right beside them. Government buildings and other landmarks were named for all of them. That coalition peaked holding the Presidency, 61 seats in the Senate, and 292 in the House. What more could be obtained?
But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist.
I doubt half the country thinks he's racist. Maybe 35% or so - people who wouldn't vote Republican regardless of circumstances. Personally I think it's going to be a much easier sell to swing voters as Democrat cities go up in flames. People are starting to see what happens when governments fail to maintain order, and they'll want someone at the national level who understands the benefits of, well, civilization.
I'll be very surprised if Biden wins this election, particularly in light of his VP pick and even more so if he continues to refuse debates.
Is someone like Hershel Walker part of the Base? If you have come to the realization that modern Democrats are poisonous to this nation and your values, or you hate Communism, or riots, or being called a racist for being White, or are tired of being called an Uncle Tom, or if you love America and respect cops, law, order, and the military; are you part of Trump's base? Do have to love Trump to be in the Base or can you just find the Democrats unacceptable.
Well, we will see if he's down 9 points in the polls after the convention is over
We have one poll since the DNC that claims Biden is up by 10. Of course it was a D+11 and it showed Trump ahead by 10 with independents.
Right now, this week we should be seeing instapolls and regular polls showing Biden's 'convention bump'.
What I want to see is the state of the election RIGHT NOW. Instead we get crickets. The absence of new polls and Nate giving advice to Trump instead of asking for new data speaks VOLUMES...
But four more years of Trump will mean more BLM, not less. When what is burning upsets you, remember that Trump is fanning the flames.
Do you do this as a shit disturber or do you really think this is true ?
BLM will last until the first serious pushback, which will be the day after the election if Trump wins, as I expect him to. Blacks are 13% of the population and the radical violent fringe is maybe 10% of that. We see black college students, probably 95% affirmative action, prancing around. They usually are not the looters but are playing at violence. The really violent group is the inner city gang culture, which is being coddled by politicians in cities like Chicago. Some serious backlash will require federal charges for many as the Soros infected DAs are useless, as intended.
She may stink at picking Presidents, and that record is so bad I wonder why I even come here...
Contra indicators are pure gold.
Doctrev said: Trump's base looks an awful lot like the swing voters he needs.
Exactly right. In the traditional base-swing analysis, your "base" is the far-ish left if you're a Dem and the far-ish right if you're a Repub. That very much applies to the Dems this year.
But little or nothing that this R convention is pushing (thus far) is particularly right-wing. Unless freedom of conscience, not hating your country, some semblance of peaceful order in the streets, and creating jobs is right-wing.
To the extent that undecided voters are tuning in, I've got to think that last night was very effective messaging.
Nate has it exactly backwards in his percentages, but whatever. Highlighting minority supporters to the point Jake Tapper mutters "that's not representative of the GOP electorate" is generally not considered "shoring up the base."
The simple assessment is: Nate trusts the polls; Trump trusts Trump.
In terms of presidential elections, Trump has the better record.
Left Bank: "But four more years of Trump will mean more BLM, not less. When what is burning upsets you, remember that Trump is fanning the flames."
Communists don't like it when you don't surrender to them.
But four more years of Trump will mean more BLM, not less. When what is burning upsets you, remember that Trump is fanning the flames.
But that isn't true, is it, even if you believe the Democratic narratives. We are supposed to believe these riots are the result of racist cops killing black men... in cities that haven't had a Republican governor or police chief since the 1970s.
Blaming everything on Trump is by now a well ingrained reflex on the far left, but this is going to be a pretty hard sell to even nominally apolitical people who've been paying attention.
"He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm."
I'd agree with you except that he's running against a potted plant with no ideas not fed to him with his prune yogurt and the moral compass of a crack dealer. Once again, both parties have nominated the one person the other party's candidate could beat.
Are there two Readerings/readerings now - one upper case R and one lower case r?
Is this going to be another Chuck/chuck problem?
Drago said...
Similar to everyone needs to know how to swim.
But they don't. When I went through Navy boot camp in 1973, and my kids Army boot camp in the early 2000s, the assumption was blacks didn't know how to swim. There are some that do, but it's usually a good assumption.
I lifted this from Silvers web site: "...But estimates I previously made based on a couple of data sets suggest that there were around 10 million voters who shifted from voting for one major party in 2012 to the other in 2016, which accounted for roughly 7 percent of all votes cast. In the grand scheme of things, that’s not a lot of people, but these voters probably did play a role in helping President Trump get elected because around three-quarters of those voters swung toward him rather than Hillary Clinton..."
So Nate, what makes you think those "swing voters will remain steady" and not grow. Your comment - "...But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist..."
For a statistician who values "Data" you left out one main issue "Riots". The burning of cities, rioting, etc., will easily override the MSM manufactured bullshit you cite. People will vote for the 'Law and Order' candidates which unfortunately for your 'crystal ball gazing' happens to be Mr. Trump and most Republicans.
Imagine Democrats beating Republicans at anything - ratings, fundraising, whatever - by a 6-1 margin, and having it described only as a "substantial increase". Bullshit. It would've been called a blowout, a burial, a staggering rebuke of everything Republicans are and stand for.
But the guy who's supposed to evaluate the election objectively can only say "substantial increase".
BLM is a grifting machine deployed nationwide by an organized group of Democrats and Marxists.
I remember the SLA, the SDS, the Red Brigade, Shining Path, the PLO and many other organizations designed to appear as liberation rebels, which were actually just violent scams.
BLM will fall somewhere between the Red Brigade and Shining Path in its effectiveness, but far ahead of both in terms of cash acquired through racist hustling and blatant extortion.
I wonder what the Wisconsin numbers will look like now that Democrats have torched 2 cities in the state. Can’t be good for Biden if this keeps up.
Mattman26 said...
But little or nothing that this R convention is pushing (thus far) is particularly right-wing. Unless freedom of conscience, not hating your country, some semblance of peaceful order in the streets, and creating jobs is right-wing.
To the extent that undecided voters are tuning in, I've got to think that last night was very effective messaging.
8/25/20, 2:56 PM
Exactly. It's a very civic nationalist display, and extremely effective for it. Richard Spencer is supporting Biden for that reason.
Meanwhile, I'm listening to the OANN audio app and holy hey. It's better than anything put out by Google- you can listen while not paying attention to the phone or being pestered constantly for upgrading to OANN Premium. In short, I'm going to keep it on in the background whenever I can.
If Trump listened to people like Nate Silver in 2016, he'd still be living in New York.
"Here's a link to something you probably haven't seen. Just watch the first 23 minutes of the Yahoo 2016 full election coverage headed up by Katie Couric."
LOL! I didn't watch Yahoo's coverage at the time, but I did watch it later, but I must I have skipped the beginning. I wonder if the people on that panel hope that no one ever remembered those 23 minutes.
Thanks, Drago, that 23 minutes was about the funniest thing I have seen in the last 2 months.
Well one problem with Nate's analysis is that he is a homer for the Democrats, and thus doesn't have a clue what's on the mind of the swing voter. Trump, not being a progressive, doesn't just believe he can read minds. So Trump offers what he thinks he would want from government and makes a reasonable assumption that others may want the same thing, because Trump is actually a reasonable person.
Howard said...
The Trump plan is to keep the base foaming, suppress minority and low income Democrat voters and hack the voting machines. He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm.
The projection is strong with this one.
The Democrat plan is to keep the base foaming, bully, intimidate and shame any "minorities" thinking of voting Republicans ("if you're not voting for me you aint black"), and use "vote by mail" to enable vast amounts of vote fraud in an attempt to steal the election.
So Howard turns it around, and projects on the Republicans everything his side is doing
Gospace: "But they don't. When I went through Navy boot camp in 1973, and my kids Army boot camp in the early 2000s, the assumption was blacks didn't know how to swim. There are some that do, but it's usually a good assumption."
I was actually a survival swim instructor for a period of time in between ground school and primary flight school.
I can attest the vast majority of black aviators and naval flight officer candidates could not swim. This is generally due to cultural reasons and lack of adequate facilities in majority black areas. Plus, physically, most of the brothers do tend to have denser bones and muscle mass so they have somewhat less buoyancy, so that makes it a little tougher.
Thus, the Navy created special curriculum for blacks selected for the aviation pipeline (usually post graduation selectees, not Boat School (Academy) or NROTC grads) that allowed them to show up to flight school weeks ahead of time in order to do nothing for those weeks but learn to swim and spend hours becoming acclimated to a water environment.
This is very important since part of the survival swim curriculum includes swimming in a flight suit for a mile without stopping (by any stroke the swimmer chooses), tower jumping with underwater swim (to mimic jumping off a burning ship with fuel/oil in the water and possibly on fire), treading water for 30 minutes in full gear, and, of course, both the Dilbert and Helo dunkers.
I didn't mind this accommodation. I grew up in heavily minority dominated areas (both black and then hispanics) and I got it. No biggee. In fact, I was just an average swimmer myself so when they asked me what temporary duty I wanted during the downtime between ground school and primary flight I opted for survival swim instructor.
Needless to say, I got alot better real fast.
"This is a much more interesting data point than the daily polls. Why is there a 6-fold difference between the two. That's crazy. They can't all be hate viewers. Does this reflect the enthusiasm gap? Does the GOP just put on a better show?"
The Democrats have insisted on making Trump both the challenger and the incumbent. That being the case, why would you watch Joe?
Nate can be good with numbers. But he sucks at everything else, esp. once politics gets involved. See his blather about the "percentage chance that Kavanaugh lied in his testimony" that he twitted during the confirmation fight
I'd love for him to explain exactly what that 65% for the middle was during the DNC. It would tell us nothing about the Dems, but a lot about Nate
Rabel: "Are there two Readerings/readerings now - one upper case R and one lower case r?"
Its the same one but I'm assuming its different devices.
Left Bank requests the Danegeld.
Left Bank asks for the protection money.
I hope the mostly peaceful protestors find themselves in Left Bank's neighborhood.
I want him to enjoy what he wants for the rest of us.
I hope they throw mostly un-lit Molotov cocktails in your neighborhood.
"She voted Obama in 2008. Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016"
-------------=============
looks like she is firm believer in getting off the tush and step in doo dodo
i would have sat out 2008 and 2012 if i had the vote
The guy from Cuba gave a compelling speech. If we give power to the casto-democrats... US will become the very disaster Cuba has not recovered from. Poverty for all, riches for the elite. No middle class. No private property. No private industry. No individual liberty.
Replaced by what you see in Portland each night. Is it any wonder CNN and Drudge refuse to cover?
Well a couple of things; somebody made the cogent observation that the Republicans supporting Biden are white; and the Democrats supporting Trump are Black. But may you have to be wite to be a Republican--I don't think so--but who knows?
I had e-mail exchanges with two liberal friends this morning; one lives in San Diego and told me that there was a Republican in Pennsylvania who talked with 16 other Republicans who had voted for Trump in 2016--and now planned to vote for Biden. The San Diego guy was happy.
The second lives in a Sun City retirement community in South Carolina. He says it's all Trump Country there. The South Carolinians apparently believe that Jesus made a few mistakes, but so far Trump hasn't made any. My South Carolina friend is "resigned to the situation".
I'll take the Pennsyvlania canvas of defecting Republicans with a grain of salt, but it might be true.
Oopsie--balky preview there. All of the Republicans who defected to Biden--at least publicly are white. But you may have to be white to be a Republican---so if all Republicans are white, only white Republicans can defect to Biden. Don't think so.
If memory serves me Trump won the 2016 election without Nate's help. If anything I think Nate remembers the 2016 election when he had the temerity of speculating Trump had a 32% chance of winning a week out from the election and Nate was almost hung at the NY times office.
If anything, I think Nate is gently breaking the news to the NY times readers to show that Slow Joe is not a shoe in by any means and that Trump has a valid path to Victory. This is even before Joe destroys himself during an unscripted event or bails on attending the debates. This way Nate can keep his job as the writing on the wall becomes clearer and clearer.
"I am more amazed at her ability to get up and take a photo of the sunrise each morning."
I agree with this! I'm waiting for Ann to throw us a WTF and post a picture of a sunset some random evening.
ANNIE GET YOUR GUN
Actually, I think the 1876 election was the turning point. The Republicans ended Reconstruction and let the Democrats resume control of the South in return for the election of Hayes.
Until 1878, the Republicans, many of them Black, politically controlled the South. It was indeed the corrupt and immoral bargain that gave Hayes the presidency and removed federal troops from the South that allowed the Democratic Party to take back political control of the South and to impose segregation and Jim Crow.
Somebody show Nate the gate. And as far as Ann goes, she voted when she bought and learned to use a firearm. You don't do that in fear of rampagin' Republicans coming 'round the corner when darkness falls.
Howard said...
"The Trump plan is to keep the base foaming, suppress minority and low income Democrat voters and hack the voting machines. He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm."
It's OK, little man. You don't have to be afraid. The adults will keep you safe. Just as long as you don't try and ambush someone with a bikelock in a sock. You guys are so violent.
A.A. "I expect the police to show up and protect us when we call them."
You expect a public employee to be responsible for your personal safety? Good luck with that.
Left Bank of the Charles said...
"Althouse is saying that Trump is already reaching out to the very fine people vote. Not that Nate’s advice is bad, but that Trump is already doing it, and Nate doesn’t recognize that. BLM is definitively eroding support for Biden among swing voters, as it also eroded support for Clinton in 2016. Fox has essentially given BLM a primetime show.
But four more years of Trump will mean more BLM, not less. When what is burning upsets you, remember that Trump is fanning the flames."
Sounds to me like a threat. Also, blaming Trump for the looting and violence is third-grade "stop hitting yourself" bullyism. Who, indeed, is fanning the flames? It's easy to blame Orange Man but it ain't necessarily so.
This doesn't mean Althouse made her mind up to vote for Trump.
I say that in case there a new comer who's unaware how Althouse arrives at her decision.
MadTownGuy said...
Who, indeed, is fanning the flames? It's easy to blame Orange Man but it ain't necessarily so.
8/25/20, 8:33 PM
Soros, Bloomberg, Epstein. These three men and their confederates were and are a vital part of the Democratic machine. As people awaken to them, and they do so all the time, we get ready to deal with them permanently.
This is demonstrably wrong.
At best Trump can win 50-52% of the "undecided." They're maybe 4% in reality of the voters. (The polls saying more are bullshit).
If he turns out 2.01% more base voters, likely more votes than the maximum 1/2 of the 4% who are "undecideds" and Natey recommends working on.
This is another 2004 election. Trump needs to maximize get out the vote efforts among his core.
Make no mistake, Left Bank is a totalitarian if you let him.
But the people at Harvard are a bunch of pussies.
Fuck them.
If you got a pistol, get CCW training and a permit. Even if you don’t plan to carry the training is useful and informative.
Do some practice. First just target practice. Then shoot some USPSA or IDPA matches to build confidence and proficiency. Those folks are more than happy to help or mentor a new shooter.
If your gun hurts your hand, sell it and buy a heavier one that fits your hand better. The heavier the gun, the less the felt recoil. If you don’t plan to carry an all steel gun is best. Lightweight guns are best for people that carry all day but rarely if ever need to shoot.
All really good comments about gun safety training.
I'd like to add that you need a common sense tactical plan for defending your home. A simple nighttime strategy is to stay behind the bed, the gun supported by the mattress aimed at the bedroom door. When you are reasonably certain that your home has been invaded, call 911 and stay put. If the door opens, you have to identify the person before you shoot. That is very important. A bright light on the barrel of your gun is the best way to do that.
Wondering through a house at night (or day) with a loaded weapon more often than not leads to tragedy. The Brionna Taylor incident was, at its root cause, a failure to plan after the gun was purchased.
I also recommend a lightweight long rifle instead of a handgun. Handguns are for experts. An AR-15 or similar weapon is far more accurate and you should never be firing from anywhere but from behind a bed so mobility is not an issue.
The simple election analysis from someone who unfortunately is usually wrong (me) is that Trump will get every voter he got the first time because he has done exactly what he promised to do. And voters who leaned his way last time, but out of an abundance of caution stayed home (me), will vote for him this time as well.
There has also been a considerable walk-away movement and Black conservative movement that will be consequential.
It's Trump in an electoral landslide again, unless there are mass mail-in ballots in swing states. Than all bets are off.
Blogger Howard said...
"The Trump plan is to keep the base foaming, suppress minority and low income Democrat voters and hack the voting machines. He cannot attract swing voters because he is a disgusting vile self serving fetid blob of prontoplasm." 8/25/20, 12:28 PM
Look "Howard" get yourself some fresh "propoganda". "He cannot attract swing voters..?" Who told you that? I just cited @ 8/25/20 3:25PM from Nate Silver's own web site, that "10 million people where swing voters in 2016...75% voted for Trump...".
But Howard has "TDS" and needs to shovel B.S. cause that's all they got.
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