"But Trump has to win a firewall state or two in order to win the election!"/"But is he choosing from among Clinton’s firewall states wisely?"/"Sure. Wisconsin and ESPECIALLY Michigan are VASTLY underrated targets for Trump."/"And Minnesota, right?"/"Michigan is basically Pennsylvania, but with worse polling (hence more uncertainty) and probably slightly better demographics for Trump...."
From "On A Scale From 1 To 10, How Much Should Democrats Panic?" at FiveThirtyEight.
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५५ टिप्पण्या:
How much should Dems Panic?
Do you mean if she wins or she loses?
538 is no longer owned by Nate Silver. He sold out to ESPN years ago. He is an employee saying what his boss tells him to say now.
IBD/TIPP polls have been the most accurate polls from 2011 to present.
Silver may have sold out, but Chia Pets don't lie.
I'm sorta upset at the current polling. It's got people spooked and the markets hate uncertainty. I've been investing for a Trump surprise win. The polls are making that less and less of a surprise. So now I'm taking my profits this week and maybe early next, before the election, because the uncertainty and the down market are coming sooner than I expected.
I had planned on making a lot, a lot, more money, had Trump pulled through and won in the last minute.
I hope her polling improves a little bit and the market continues flat. Then Trump's surprise win will make me rich.
Investing in ammunition and body armor might be something to do if he wins.
Althouse trying to give her con flock hope! Just like (4) years ago when she did such a good job she started to believe her own bullshit was the gospel truth.
Even on election day! ~ Bless her whittle heart ...
So it shall be written, so it shall be done!
Keep hope alive!
Whoever wins, maybe we can retire that clip of Trump waving his arms and imitating that disabled reporter. Here in NV we've been eating that for breakfast, lunch, and dinner for months, in Dem ads for Hillary on down to Dogcatcher.
Who are "people on Twitter?" Like, reporters?
It makes some sense for Trump to target the whiter states where Bernie beat Hillary.
Here in PA, every single ad is about how Trump wants to defund Planned Parenthood. Every. SINGLE. One. And every one is explicitly aimed at women only. If you're a guy in PA, your vote is simply not worth appealing to on any basis from the Democrats.
Hillary draws more Trump supporters than Hillary supporters in Florida.
The only chance Hillary has is voter fraud.
The answer is 11 if the question is how much Democrats are panicking.
Blogger shiloh said...
Althouse trying to give her con flock hope! Just like (4) years ago when she did such a good job she started to believe her own bullshit was the gospel truth.
Even on election day! ~ Bless her whittle heart ...
So it shall be written, so it shall be done!
Keep hope alive!
C'mon Althouse posters, take a look at Shiloh. Don't you know she has this in the bag?
Give up hope. Don't even bother to vote. Trump has already lost.
Who is this and what did you do to tingles?"
Dems have 0 need to panic -- except the ones with a conscience. But those half dozen have long since sunk into despair. The rest don't panic, keep their eye on the ball, and will extract all the goodies they want from a weak president who will need the party, in Congress and in the country. Plus O will be hovering for a little race-baiting and legacy protection.
Trump's speech in Wisconsin tonight was very good - he was focused and hit all the right notes. If he keeps this discipline in the next 6 days he'll be elected President.
"C'mon Althouse posters, take a look at Shiloh. Don't you know she has this in the bag?
Give up hope. Don't even bother to vote. Trump has already lost."
The truth shall set you free!
As wonderful and perfect it is that Weiner has been re-injected into the dying days of this dismal election cycle, I remain unconvinced that Trump has much of a chance.
He lost this election in the debates. He seems genuinely clueless about how women think and blissfully unaware that they constitute a majority of the electorate. In the debates he had one big task, to limit the damage his past actions and statements have done with women voters, especially well educated women. He whiffed, completely, especially in the third debate, where Hillary got on his case and he seemed lost. It was not that hard, with Bill and Weiner on the other team he could have neutralized much of the damage, but he just didn't get it.
Blogger shiloh said
"The truth shall set you free!"
So will flushing your soul down a toilet.
Well... flushing your soul down a toilet will make it possible to vote for Hillary anyway
He seems genuinely clueless about how women think and blissfully unaware that they constitute a majority of the electorate.
You might be correct. God help us.
Burkhas for all.
He seems genuinely clueless about how women think
As far as I am concerned, that's a huuuge plus, not a negative.
and blissfully unaware that they constitute a majority of the electorate
I say again...repeal the 19th.
The wapo, owned by Jeff Bezos, wants you to know "he's not one of us"
“I did try,” Schwichtenberg added with a sigh. “I went to a rally.” But he was not swayed and he was turned off by the crowd, which he noted was packed with men and women “who came there on Harleys.”
If you are a 28 year old man turned off by men and women riding Harley's you are a democrat and you probably shouldn't wear shorts.
"A paper by John Lott and Lawrence W. Kenny, published by the Journal of Political Economy, found that women generally voted along more liberal political philosophies than men. The paper concluded that women's voting appeared to be more risk-averse than men and favored candidates or policies that supported wealth transfer, social insurance, progressive taxation, and larger government"
Repeal the 19th.
I am counting on the Putin/Russian agents to protect their main guy from the cheap attacks. Pedesta will be protected.
The man in danger of being found dead is named Comey.
4 years ago tonight Romney was up .8 in rcp avg
7 days later he lost by 4
It is a long way uphill for Trump, but Hillary has generated so much rot there's a good chance another torpedo is in the water.
Do women really think the way women say women think? I'm not so sure. The multi-billion dollar fashion and cosmetics industries are testaments to the fact that, from as early in life that they are allowed to, women compete with other women for men. Certainly, they commiserate with other women - as long as the other women don't threaten them, but this meme about a universal sisterhood of the vagina is as silly and risible as the apocryphal men's drum circle. Women in business certainly know they're more likely to get a skull puncture from a high heel than they are to be done in by a man.
In my wife's (financially based) office, all highly college educated, grad and post-grad, white black and Hispanic, all but one of her dozen or so circle are voting Trump. The other isn't saying.
So trotting out Alicia Machado may seal the deal with Lena Dunham, but many others will only be seeing the high school slut that tried to steal their boyfriends, then porked up after she talkied one of them into marrfying her after he got her pregnant.
Women are far from a sure thing for Hillary.
In all seriousness, I'm glad Shiloh found a job, even if it is just a temporary gig with CTR.
"He seems genuinely clueless about how women think and blissfully unaware that they constitute a majority of the electorate"
All true enough, but I'm struck by the number of women I've talked to who, while fully recognizing Trump's unpleasantness, vehemently despise Hillary Clinton and will not vote for her. I don't know, maybe I'm just in Pauline Kael territory here but the sentiment is surprisingly
widespread. Furthermore, demonizing Trump for his locker room talk implicitly demonizes (and so possibly alienates) every man who ever said something smutty in conversation with his fellows.
I think the impervious Free Stuff vote will carry Hillary handily, so we may never know what the sexual politics of this year really affected, but Trump's current poll numbers suggest that driving as many men as possible out of the Democrat party isn't the road to electoral peace of mind.
A liberal buddy of mine -- in Florida-- just voted for Trump today after the last email weiner find and wiki drops. I asked what finally turned him -- His reply (text):
Idk. I probably had this sickness in my stomach the whole time. I had put it away with stories of the opponent pussy grabbing and failed ventures, and shit. When I looked in the mirror one drunken, though, I realized it's all shit I've done. But I've always protected my country. I've always honored my oath and I've always wanted to take care of those under my charge...
Trump may win the election, technically, but not by enough to cover the margin of fraud. So I expect the Democrats will just keep recounting close states until Hillary wins. They may need to "find" a few boxes of ballots. Were I a Democrat I wouldn't be too worried.
The crooked Dems might steal it.
"As an election lawyer, I’m hoping that Donald Trump will add one more urgent issue to his list of action items for the first 100 days of his presidency: obliterating the widespread and rapidly spreading disease of election fraud.
Every day, we learn of new and frightening attacks on the heartbeat of American democracy. Voting machines switching votes from Trump to Hillary Clinton. Voters long since dead being resurrected to vote. Phony registrations being submitted in the names of unsuspecting or fictitious people. Voters requesting mail ballots and then attempting to also vote by machine. People voting in multiple states. Voter rolls intentionally left with millions of ineligible voters or voters who have moved. States permitting voters access to ballots with no photo or skimpy ID. States permitting registration with no actual proof of the citizenship of the voter."
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/a-trump-victory-could-end-the-national-shame-of-voter-fraud/
Naaah, she still takes it. Fun to watch the smart set squirm, though.
I have noticed that "The Wicked Witch Of The West Wing" has stopped wearing orange jump suits.Is she saving them for future wear as inmate 666-666?
Old political description is that when the society's insiders exclude you from their group, then you build a bigger group until, one day they ask to join your group.
Trump has worked and worked and finally built the bigger group .
I am in Michigan. Trump is not going to win Michigan.
Panic time whoever wins.
While I think the hag will win, in part due to widespread fraud, I found this interesting:
https://twitter.com/Jacobnbc/status/793565581735825408/video/1
Time-lapse: Trump supporters, many of them college students, two hours ahead of the rally at University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire.
Eau Claire, like most university towns, is not conservative. It went for Obama in 2012 and for Mary Burke over Scott Walker in 2014.
Compare this with the pitful crowds the hag draws.
The attack on Ds is that they want more Hispanic/Latino Americans because these folks vote for Ds. Likewise, Ds should like young folks and black folks to vote because these folks are more likely to vote for them.
On the other side, It's cool to have a party that wants to increase the numbers of uneducated (especially rural) Americans because that's their strongest base of support. The DJT-R-party benefits the more America is uneducated. [BTW, beyond helping the DJT-R-party, I'm not sure that a less and less educated America is, long-term, a good thing for the country.]
Anywho, for rich folks, the most stable outcome would be a DJT victory: the uneducated will feel psychologically fulfilled even though they'll lose even more at the same time educated folks and rich folks from urban areas (i.e. a lot of HRC supporters) will continue to drift (economically) ever further away from the uneducated (but DJT-satisfied) folks.
If they were Randian-ish, the best thing that could happen for rich folks (incl Ds) is to have Mr. DJT-snake-oil-sale's-man placating his uneducated, not-rich fans (i.e. losers, as judged by DJT's math). Rich folks can have lower taxes and fewer regulations as the nation's dough accelerates its trickle up. Four years would be great, rake in as much dough, as quickly as possible. Eight would be the mother load. But, at some point the uneducated folks are going to figure it out. Then, these folks will scrape off their DJT bumper stickers, just as many (most?) of them have moved away from being big Iraq-attack fans. Anywho, at least they can keep clinging to their guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations. Irony.
OTOH, unfortunately, it's still more likely than not that HRC will win.
Hey Shiloh, now here's a story that keeps hope alive:
"Few institutions have a better track record calling presidential races than the U.S. stock market. At the moment, it’s sending information that counts against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The performance of the S&P 500 Index has signaled the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, according to an analysis by Strategas Research Partners LLC. A gain in the benchmark for American equity in the three months prior to the vote has seen the incumbent party win 86 percent of the time since 1928. Right now, the benchmark gauge is down 3.6 percent since Aug. 8 with just a week until the vote, a fact that in isolation augurs well for Donald Trump."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-01/one-poll-that-isn-t-going-clinton-s-way-is-the-u-s-stock-market
It is very important that Hillary be elected President in order to afford her the opportunity to sell control of the remaining 80pct of US uranium control to the Russians the way she sold the first 20.
It's only right.
BTW was this Prophesy? or just more of the same?:
"But — so the questions you’re most likely to get about me, ‘Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What’s the concrete thing?’ What they wanna hear is — so, we’ll give you talking points about what we’re proposing — close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama’s gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we’re gonna provide health care for every American. So we’ll go down a series of talking points.
But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
More than eight years ago this was some big kerfuffle. IMHO, if DJT spoke these words at a rally tomorrow he'd be seen as delivering a homerun speech. In fact, he's already following this blueprint as his campaign's raison deter, but less forthrightly and succinctly.
Blogger PBandJ_Ombudsman said...
The attack on Ds is that they want more Hispanic/Latino Americans because these folks vote for Ds. Likewise, Ds should like young folks and black folks to vote because these folks are more likely to vote for them.
The attack on D's is they want to erase our borders and destroy the rule of law. They want pliable voters and cheap labor. If lawyers and politicians were flooding the borders they would feel differently.
On the other side, It's cool to have a party that wants to increase the numbers of uneducated (especially rural) Americans because that's their strongest base of support. The DJT-R-party benefits the more America is uneducated. [BTW, beyond helping the DJT-R-party, I'm not sure that a less and less educated America is, long-term, a good thing for the country.]
This paragraph is saying the exact same thing as your first paragraph just with racism implicit. What you don't seem to understand is that the democrats are pitting uneducated people from outside our country against rural Americans who built this country.
Anywho, for rich folks, the most stable outcome would be a DJT victory: the uneducated will feel psychologically fulfilled even though they'll lose even more at the same time educated folks and rich folks from urban areas (i.e. a lot of HRC supporters) will continue to drift (economically) ever further away from the uneducated (but DJT-satisfied) folks.
This is assertion without support. Under the current administration rich folks in cities and the 1% are taking the vast majority of gains in wealth. The high regulations coupled with DC corruption allowing the wealthy to buy favors the 99.9% cannot afford is the problem.
If they were Randian-ish, the best thing that could happen for rich folks (incl Ds) is to have Mr. DJT-snake-oil-sale's-man placating his uneducated, not-rich fans (i.e. losers, as judged by DJT's math). Rich folks can have lower taxes and fewer regulations as the nation's dough accelerates its trickle up. Four years would be great, rake in as much dough, as quickly as possible. Eight would be the mother load. But, at some point the uneducated folks are going to figure it out. Then, these folks will scrape off their DJT bumper stickers, just as many (most?) of them have moved away from being big Iraq-attack fans. Anywho, at least they can keep clinging to their guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations. Irony.
You just make things up. If you take out the unfair tax code, and the OSHA EPA IRS CFPB DOJ SEC DOL et al. we will do just fine against all of the cronies that require help from the federal government and the agencies that keep their competitors out of the game for them. The big multinationals just ship the jobs to other countries while us little people have to live under them and lay our employees off.
I also love it when you retards talk about trickle up. Anytime you use the word trickle you screw it up. You pretend like the federal government doesn't rig the tax code and give billions of dollars to wealthy cronies. The federal government is the greatest creater of wealth disparity in the country by a long ways.
You are completely ignorant of the paradigms of people that support trump. You really just sound stupid when you spout off the tired garbage about bitter clingers and xenophobia.
OTOH, unfortunately, it's still more likely than not that HRC will win.
Disingenuous and dishonest like everything else in this post.
Ach,
Fine, you want to think that DJT's (and Rs in Congress) policies don't include big tax benefits for rich folks and reductions on regulations that restrain rich folks: I don't care. Or maybe you do realize this, but you've concluded that this allows the "job creators" to succeed so that they'll share the wealth w/ normal folks: fine by me.
As I noted, if DJT wins, there will be a time when the DJTers figure it out, just as, eventually, many of the W-attack-Iraq fans came to see the light later.
DJT wins = rich people win.
Make my day.
Please.
This is what the democrats want to happen here.
Sweden is being torn apart because of unchecked immigration. There are over 50 places where police officers just cannot go now. 3 officers are resigning every day in a country of 9.5 million.
Sweden is being purposely destroyed by the progressives. They are trying to do it here too. Sanctuary cities like Chicago are becoming effective no go zones for police. The progressives want more lawlessness. They are evil people and need to be treated as such.
Fine, you want to think that DJT's (and Rs in Congress) policies don't include big tax benefits for rich folks and reductions on regulations that restrain rich folks: I don't care. Or maybe you do realize this, but you've concluded that this allows the "job creators" to succeed so that they'll share the wealth w/ normal folks: fine by me.
You don't know how jobs are created. You have clearly never been an employer. The regulations currently in place were written BY the big corporations and BY the wealthy. The big 5 banks have gone on an unprecedented consolidation sprees under Dodd-Frank. This is by design.The tax code is written BY the wealthy. If you raise corporate and income taxes you just kill all of the job creation in the US and you empower the people and corporations with influence in DC. I trust the people of this country to share wealth and prosperity infinitely more than the federal government.
As I noted, if DJT wins, there will be a time when the DJTers figure it out, just as, eventually, many of the W-attack-Iraq fans came to see the light later.
Again with assertion unsupported by fact. You either don't know what you are talking about or you are purposely disingenuous.
DJT wins = rich people win.
Make my day.
Please.
That is why 99% of donations from wealthy people goes to Hillary. All of the wealthy and powerful are dumping money into her campaign. This is just a really really stupid argument to make.
The song remains insane.
PB&J brags about having seven cars and he is all in for Hillary. Just sayin'
On the internet everybody has at least eight cars. QED
Yeah, I can never tell if he is bragging about cars or inches. Either way, he has this deep down need to brag.
Subject to what reliable internal polling indicates (and who knows what internal polling Trump uses--Kellyanne Conway was a pollster herself so one might assume she could bring in good polling, but who knows if he listened to her), the main firewall is Florida. If Trump wins that, he has a shot at Ohio, and from there needs to hold the line in NC and AZ, and win the rest of the Romney states, and maybe pick up Colorado. I haven't done the electoral math, but that gets you 270 or close to it.
Forget PA. That's the state where GOP presidential dreams die. Same with Wisconsin and Michigan. Every election we hear "oh how close" but their cities dominate the state's overall totals.
And at this point, the GOP should be putting all their efforts into the ground game. They're more dependent on older voters than before, and the older voters are the ones who most likely need rides to polls and to know where the early voting sites are. This is no longer a matter of appealing to "unsold" voters, as everyone has an opinion by now, but getting turnout in your favor. Clinton will be doing the same thing.
"Forget PA. That's the state where GOP presidential dreams die. Same with Wisconsin and Michigan. Every election we hear "oh how close" but their cities dominate the state's overall totals."
You might very well be right - but this is not a typical election. The three wild cards are 1. what minority, particularly the AA turnout will be. 2. how many people who have never voted or have not voted in many years will show up to vote for Trump. Those are the people who I suspect are underrepresented in the polls - but I don't know by how much.
And 3. How many union Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for Trump? In states like MI, PA and WI that number might be very significant, and it will have to be to make up for the loss of upper middle class GOP Nevertrumpers.
Like I said, I'm expecting a Hillary win, but I would not be at all surprised if the turnout models are significantly different from 2012.
He lost this election in the debates.
Trump loses most debates. But he wins most elections. Odd.
I notice that the attacks on Comey have subsided. Wasn’t working. There’s no penetrating that icy dignity. And it’s always been my experience that attacking those who can help put you in jail is never a wise tactic. The Clinton internal polls must be dismal.
Trump may win the election, technically, but not by enough to cover the margin of fraud.
I think it’s going to be a landslide victory for Trump, maybe a record-setting landslide. If I’m right even more Democrat-abetted voter fraud than usual will not be enough to give Hillary the election.
As I noted, if DJT wins, there will be a time when the DJTers figure it out, just as, eventually, many of the W-attack-Iraq fans came to see the light later.
Hillary never did. She still wants a world war over Syria.
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