Now, this is how you run for President 2 years out.

You look like you're not doing it at all. You can just quietly lay out your theory of the meaning of "Emily in Paris":

"... Americans love to turn to women when the house is burning down. Social scientists call it the glass cliff — the phenomenon in which women are recruited to lead failing companies."

"President Trump’s businessman brand of governance has many Americans feeling this nation is failing. I suppose the dumpster fire of climate denialism, political corruption and general scamminess of, well, everything would be dire enough circumstances to make a female president possible.  In particular, Democrats — whom you might expect to be wary of placing another female candidate before the American public — are facing a political disaster of their own making.... [A] lot of Democrats are faithful to conventional political wisdom that they cannot win the White House by running from the left. Ocasio-Cortez is made for this moment....  As we learned in 2008, when history says it’s your time, it’s your time."

Writes Tressie McMillan Cottom, in "Is Ocasio-Cortez Ready for the Glass Cliff?" (NYT gift link).

"Trump privately tells donors to back Vance while publicly keeping 2028 open."

So says The Washington Post.

“At the end of the day, we need to elect JD,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with donors roughly two weeks ago, according to two people with knowledge of the comments who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter....

Even as Trump buoyed his vice president to donors in the Oval Office, though, he was still peppering people around him with questions about Vance versus Rubio.... An adviser to the president with direct knowledge of Trump’s comment to the donors said that Trump has privately resolved that Vance will be the heir to the GOP, but that it is “too early” to determine when Vance will announce his candidacy or when Trump will publicly endorse him.

Six other Trumpworld advisers and allies, however, cautioned that they aren’t convinced the president has settled on Vance, noting that Trump tells different things to different people and could still change his mind about an endorsement for 2028. Trump aides widely agree that the president will delay endorsing to avoid appearing to be a lame duck.... 

"His detractors have adopted the 'Never Vance' slogan and flooded social media, especially over the past week, with attacks..."

"... including claims that Vance is 'unfit' to be vice president due to his efforts to negotiate a peace deal with Iran. They have asserted, without evidence, that Vance is making policy decisions not supported by President Donald Trump. They have likened him to former president Barack Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont)...."

I'm reading "Knives are out for Vance in the GOP. His allies say it’s a coordinated ‘op.’ The vice president has faced a barrage of attacks recently that are unusual for their intensity and how early in the political calendar they are taking place" (WaPo)(gift link).

Vance or Rubio? "According to multiple people close to the president, Mr. Trump asks advisers who they prefer..."

"... before frequently musing that he should just have Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio run together on the same presidential ticket in 2028. Mr. Trump’s advisers say he is simply having fun polling people, and that 2028 is not at the top of his mind at all.... According to several people close to both men, Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio, who are friends, do not want to be seen as competing against each other for the 2028 presidential nomination.... By several accounts, the two actually do get along. It is not uncommon to see them laughing together at White House events. They talk about sports and family when they are together. They are also both very aware of the chatter about their reputations and respective futures...."

I'm reading "Vance or Rubio? Trump Muses on Successor as the ‘Kids’ Fill Bigger Roles. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are boosting their profiles, generating speculation about who’s lining up for the 2028 presidential nomination" (NYT).

I'd like to see both of them running, and I'd like them to find a new way that could be fascinatingly cooperative. I'm inferring that they both strongly support each other and are used to working together. They don't have to compete against each other at all. Each could recommend the other. Debates could have both of them arguing for essentially the same thing but giving the people the opportunity to choose which one will be the presidential nominee and which the vice presidential nominee.

"[T]he dominant mode in Democratic politics right now. It’s not the rebellion or radicalism manifest in, say..."

"Hasan Piker’s Twitch-streamer Marxism or Zohran Mamdani’s telegenic democratic socialism. Notable as those tendencies may be, the Democrats’ fundamental condition is a late-Trumpian stasis — in which the president’s stark unpopularity encourages his opponents to imagine that they can keep everything basically as it was in the Biden era, with the same broad priorities and deference to activists and interest groups, and float back to power automatically. The continuing appeal of Harris is a useful indicator of this stasis. Yes, she is unlikely to be the 2028 nominee, and part of her support is name recognition...."

Writes Ross Douthat, in "Slouching Toward Kamala Harris" (NYT).

Harris is ahead in the polls for the Democratic nomination in 2028. The Real Clear Politics average has her up by 9.3 percentage points. The most recent poll, from Harvard-Harris — has her up by 28 percentage points. Here's her closest competition:

This is about as bad as I’ve seen him. pic.twitter.com/xksNZfG0BE

— Kira (@Kiradavis) May 3, 2026

Trump starts tearing into Talarico, pivots to "Newscum," and ends with "Kamala is back!"

A new Truth Social post from Trump (boldface mine):

The Democrat running in Texas, James Talarico, turns out to be a FRAUD! It showed after the Election when he beat Low IQ Candidate Jasmine Crockett (No relation to Davy Crockett!). He’s got six Genders, insults to Jesus, only vegan food, was wearing a mask in 2023 and 2024, and is a weak, ineffective guy who we “allowed” to win prior to releasing the avalanche of information we had on him because, as bad as Crockett was as a Candidate, this guy is worse! I believe that any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or, even a child, would win. He may be the Worst Candidate I have ever seen, other than, of course, Gavin Newscum who admitted that he suffers from mental incapacity, is unable to read a speech, and is dumb but, in saying “the dumb comment,” referred to his audience, and therefore became, in the eyes of African Americans, A TOTAL RACIST — which is probably true! Gavin admits that he’s a Low IQ individual, which typically is not good for winning the Presidency. His interview may have been the worst ever given by a “professional” politician. I believe, it takes him OUT OF THE RACE. Kamala is back! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Also, Trump has a Truth post with a video from the new "Saturday Night Live UK," the same clip I discussed and passed along in my first post of the morning, here. So we're already discussing that clip in the comments over there, where Rabel wrote: "Unflattering representation of Starmer. Shows him living up to the 'coward' claim. Minimal bashing of Trump. It wasn't especially funny but I agree with the message in the attempted humour."

Andy Beshear seeks to distinguish himself as the anti-Vance.

I'm reading "Andy Beshear Delivers a Scathing Attack on JD Vance in Ohio, Stoking 2028 Tensions/Mr. Beshear, the Democratic governor of Kentucky, sharply criticized Mr. Vance as both angle for potential presidential runs" (NYT).

Speaking at a local Democratic Party gala in the Ohio county where Mr. Vance grew up, Mr. Beshear accused the vice president of talking down to the people of Kentucky.... And he argued that “Hillbilly Elegy” — Mr. Vance’s well-read memoir about his youth in Kentucky and Ohio — amounted to “poverty tourism” and “trafficked in this tired stereotype” about the region.... 

Mr. Beshear has repeatedly accused Mr. Vance of overstating his blue-collar roots and misrepresenting himself as a product of Appalachia.

"In the before times, I was very wary of candidates whose quest for the presidency seemed too insistent and all-consuming..."

"... who had been nursing the dream for too long and clinging to it too tightly. I worried that such single-mindedness erased any space for subtlety, for introspection, for ambivalence, for the crucially instructive mess of an unscripted life. And would voters relate to it? Part of what drew many Democrats I know to Barack Obama was that he seemed to be working through decidedly mixed feelings about his quest for the presidency — as most well-adjusted people would be. Part of what drew many Republicans I know to George W. Bush was that he seemed less comfortable on the campaign trail than on his ranch.... Newsom seems entirely unrestrained and wholly immodest, his confession of a 960 on his SAT notwithstanding.... But Newsom’s strut is working for him.... [I]f the Newsom way is looking like the surest path to a post-Trump future, I’m happy to head in that direction."

Writes Frank Bruni, in "Will a Peacock Like Gavin Newsom Fly?" (NYT).

There's no sure "path to a post-Trump future." To pose the problem in those terms frames the real problem: Democrats have made hatred of Trump their central issue. Get some substance of your own! You still have to be something that the people want. That was true in "the before times," and it's true now.

A classic clip from "the before times":

"[Trump] found it interesting as an intellectual issue. Do I think he’s going to run for a third term? No, I don’t think he will run for a third term."

Said Alan Dershowitz, quoted in "Can Trump run for a third term? It’s unclear, says Harvard professorAlan Dershowitz spoke to the president about the constitution at the Oval Office this week and says Trump 'found it interesting as an intellectual issue'" (London Times).

"it" = Professor Dershowitz's new book, "Could President Trump Constitutionally Serve a Third Term?"

Dershowitz's position on the subject: "It’s not clear."

Which is more likely:

Trump will run for a third term if he thinks he can get away with it.

Trump is interested in intellectual issues.

 

pollcode.com free polls

"The San Franciscan has never lived a day outside of California, presents younger than 58 because of his hair and genes..."

"... and has endeared himself to his party rank-and-file by criticizing Democratic leaders for not fighting harder before leading by example to confront Donald Trump.... Newsom is also the best-positioned Democrat according to the new rules of politics — namely, whether you are or can become famous by breaking through on social media. Ask yourself: How many other potential candidates are plausible celebrities who can transcend the political-pop culture divide a la Obama and Trump?..."

I'm reading "Admit It. Gavin Newsom Is the 2028 Front-runner. For years, Democrats and pundits have rolled their eyes at Gavin Newsom. But he’s positioned better than anyone else for the future of politics" by Jonathan Martin, in Politico.

At one point, Martin observes, "Newsom sounded like he was reading the stage directions, a la Bush 41, saying: 'Message, I care.'" He said: "You’ve got to be on the other side of caution. It’s just clarity, conviction. Finding your voice, being your authentic self, just letting it rip, and taking the shit along the way."

I was surprised to read "presents younger than 58 because of his hair and genes" — I thought it was politically incorrect to mention genes.

AND: I'm reminded of the old theory that the man with the best hair wins. Remember this one:

"We've got better vision. We've got better ideas. We've got real plans. We've got a better sense of what's happening to America. And we've got better hair. I'll tell you, that goes a long way."

The link goes to an old post of mine. You'll see the person who said "we've got better hair" went on to lose, and you'll see my contemporaneous statement that it was not good hair and that the only good hair was on the person who actually did win.

"I’m aware that the president of the United States likes to go on television and beg me to call and ask him for troops."

"I find this extraordinarily strange as Chicago does not want troops on our streets … I refuse to play a reality game show with Donald Trump."

Said JB Pritzker, quoted in "JB Pritzker: is the Illinois governor the Democrats’ best hope?/Clashes with Trump have boosted his profile, and while a third Illinois term looks assured, a tilt at the White House could see old scandals return to haunt him" (London Times).

We're told that Trump "continues to mock Pritzker’s bulk, posting an AI video showing him as a sumo wrestler grappling with Chris Christie, a large former Republican governor." In case you're having trouble picturing that:

pic.twitter.com/KBZz0iosQX

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 5, 2025

Isn't it amazing that the President of the United States is fooling around — and fat shaming — like that? Trump is fat too, of course. I think he fairly cheerfully admits it.

There's also this quote from Frank Luntz: "If you’re the California governor, you have to defend San Francisco. If you’re the Illinois governor, you have to defend Chicago. Democrats do not know how to talk about crime and they do not know how to lead about it, because, quite frankly, they’re seen as being in bed with the criminal and being too distant from the victim.... I actually think that Rahm Emanuel is a better representative because Chicago was better off when he was mayor.”

"A Bannon-Vance primary would trigger an explosive civil war within Trump's populist movement, pitting its original architect against its institutional inheritor."

Intones The Daily Mail, in "Steve Bannon is secretly plotting a sensational run for president in 2028 ... and he's already knifing his likely rival: 'I created him.'"

"Buttigieg’s remarks came days after Rahm Emanuel... a potential 2028 presidential candidate, told Megyn Kelly that 'a man can’t become a woman'..."

"... a comment that directly contradicted party orthodoxy and sparked fresh divisions over how Democrats should approach transgender rights. 'I think most reasonable people would recognize that there are serious fairness issues if you just treat this as not mattering when a trans athlete wants to compete in women’s sports,' Buttigieg told NPR."

From "Pete Buttigieg weighs in on ‘fairness’ of transgender kids playing girls’ sports" (Advocate).

This gets my tag "2028 campaign." Looks like Emanuel made a significant move and Buttigieg felt obliged to react. But did Buttigieg say anything comprehensible? He also said "The approach starts with compassion, compassion for transgender people, compassion for families, especially of young people who are going through this, and also empathy for people who are not sure what all of this means for them... and just taking everybody seriously." And: "These decisions should be in the hands of sports leagues and school boards and not politicians, least of all politicians in Washington trying to use this as a political pawn."

And here's Rahm:



"So do you believe boys should be able to play in girls sports?"/"No."

"Constipated. Leaderless. Confused. A cracked-out clown car. Divided.... The Democratic Party is in shambles."

James Carville weighs in, in the NYT.

The Democratic Party is steamrolling toward a civilized civil war. It’s necessary to have it. It’s even more necessary to delay it. The only thing that can save us now is an actual savior, because a new party can be delivered only by a person — see Barack Obama in 2008 and Bill Clinton in 1992. No matter how many podcasts or influencer streams our bench of candidates go on, our new leader won’t arrive until the day after the midterms in November 2026, which marks the unofficial-yet-official beginning of the 2028 presidential primary. No new party or candidate has a chance for a breakthrough until that day. Until then, we must run unified in opposition to the Republicans to gain as many House seats as possible in the midterms....

So... I guess... end the constipated, cracked-out confusion and feign unity until we get to the other side of the midterms. And then, the Messiah cometh, and when he comes, he will tell us all things.

Talk about Trump's third term goes on.

I'm seeing this at the moment:

Clicking around, I think what fired up this topic again was Trump's Michigan rally the other day. The crowd was chanting "Three!" Trump's response: "Well, we actually already served three, if you count. But remember, I like the victories, I like the three victories which we absolutely had. I just don't like the results of the middle term."

ADDED: There's also the Atlantic interview with Trump, which was published on the 28th and am just noticing now, even though I've been reading the news continuously:

"That speech puts Cory Booker as one of the leaders for the Democratic Party for 2028."

Said "Frank Luntz: Booker marathon speech 'may have changed the course of political history'" (The Hill).

Everyone's talking like Trump now. Just get rid of the weasel word "may" and you have Trump-style rhetoric: Booker's speech changed the course of political history.

And then there was Elon Musk the other day, saying that the Wisconsin Supreme Court election would affect the entire destiny of humanity. No, he wasn't that Trumpian. He had weasel words. He said "I feel like this is one of those things that may not seem that it’s going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but I think it will."

Speaking of speaking bluntly, here's Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley talking about that election:

"Trump won’t rule out seeking a third term in the White House, tells NBC News ‘there are methods’ for doing so."

 NBC News reports.

“A lot of people want me to do it,” Trump said in a Sunday-morning phone call with NBC News, referring to his allies. “But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.... I’m not joking...."...

NBC News asked about a possible scenario in which Vice President JD Vance would run for office and then pass the role to Trump. Trump responded that “that’s one” method.

“But there are others too,” Trump added. Asked to share another method, Trump simply responded “no.”

That's for him to know and for NBC to find out. 

If you want to get excited about 2028, here are the names that have emerged thus far: Walz, Buttigieg, and Pritzker.

Yikes!

I'm reading "Buttigieg, Walz and Other Democrats Start the 2028 Chatter Early/Pete Buttigieg says he’s keeping his options open. Tim Walz went to Iowa. JB Pritzker’s off to New Hampshire. It’s too early to run for president, but some Democrats seem to be exploring the idea" (NYT).

Also mentioned in the article: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rahm Emanuel, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan Andy Beshear, and Gavin Newsom.

Newsom just started a podcast, and he had Steve Bannon as a guest. Frankly, I think Newsom should use Bannon as an adviser. I see things like "Gavin Newsom draws Democratic ire for hosting Steve Bannon on his podcast/‘I don’t think we should give him oxygen on any platform, ever, anywhere,’ Kentucky governor Andy Beshear says" (The Guardian). But Bannon asserts that he's a Democrat, criticizes the Democratic Party for becoming the party of the elite, and earnestly and continually argues that government should operate for the benefit of the working class.

"Mr. Buttigieg’s decision to skip the 2026 race to succeed Senator Gary Peters, a retiring Democrat, allows him to pivot more easily to the next contest for the White House...."

"Mr. Buttigieg determined he could not run for both the Senate and the White House, according to one of the people familiar with his planning..... Mr. Buttigieg, who ran for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, was seen as the most prominent potential contender in next year’s marquee Senate contest.... But he also would have been vulnerable to 'carpetbagger' attacks, and was plainly aware of that risk. Mr. Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., became a Michigan resident in 2022, moving to Traverse City, where he lives with his husband, Chasten, and their twin toddlers.... Term limits will preclude Gov. Gretchen Whitmer from running for a third time next year, and Mr. Buttigieg is not expected to pursue that office...."

From "Pete Buttigieg, a Possible 2028 Contender, Won’t Run for Senate in Michigan/The former transportation secretary, who moved to Michigan from Indiana in 2022, had been seen as the most prominent potential candidate in next year’s marquee contest" (NYT).