That's the WaPo subheadline, under the headline "Vance blames Republicans’ midterm losses on Iran war, cost of living" (gift link).
Here, read Vance's post. It doesn't strike me as a "sharp break" from Trump. I see it as just analyzing the substance of yesterday's big losses:
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Trump himself analyzes the loss, and Vance observes that Trump said they lost because of the war. Where's the break? If Vance had wanted to make a "sharp break" from Trump, he could have said that, all along, he — Vance — qas the skeptical voice on the war.
पोस्ट्स
३८ टिप्पण्या:
"don't need a weatherman..." etc.
Well, at least they've got 20/20 hindsight.
Vance can't win in 2028. He's too soft. Rubio can win, he's a hardass. With DeSantis as VP. Get Alito to retire and put Cruz on the Supreme Court this year, Trump! Battlespace preparation is important.
Having the Senate was largely worthless for Trump.
The supposed war in Iran is a bullshit excuse for getting trounced in the midterms. Poor candidates and fake issues like data centers lost it for the GOP.
It wasn't "the war" that lost the election. It was failure to prosecute the war to complete surrender of the Iranian regime. Just like Netanyahu no prosecuting the Gaza offensive to complete surrender of Hamas, and the Lebanon attacks to the complete surrender of Hezbollah.
Tuco's rule applies here, writ large. When you have to shoot, shoot! Don't talk!
Vance has the record to present himself as an opponent of the Iran war.
He was the skeptical voice on the inside when it was being planned. Who else has that distinction?
The Iran conflict was and continues to be necessary. We cannot have a nuclear armed Iran.
If Vance doesn’t realize that, he is not as bright as I once thought. If he does realize it, he is just another politician positioning himself to his advantage.
I suspect the latter. It is disappointing, but that’s how the world of politics works.
…it was the lure of vengeance and free stuff paid for by ‘rich people’. It’s ancient and irresistible brew without an expiration date. No matter, this is not the time to treat voters as rational beings. Pander away JD. You mat be positioned to pick up the pieces…
…it was the lure of vengeance and free stuff paid for by ‘rich people’. It’s ancient and irresistible brew without an expiration date. No matter, this is not the time to treat voters as rational beings. Pander away JD. You mat be positioned to pick up the pieces…
Two years ago, so many of my "friends" unfriended me (and some actually blocked me) when I posted that the Democrats needed to seriously figure out why they lost and why the voters rejected their policies if they ever wanted to retake the White House. It's nice to see that Vance realizes this is important to do.
Political parties, and candidates, need to avoid falling into the trap of thinking that they win elections because people like them. So often you win elections only because the other side did a worse job. After you win, if you don't continue to make improvements, you will lose the next time because the other side didn't take the voters for granted and you did. (Or at least, take them for granted as much.)
"What have you done for me lately?"
"We cannot have a nuclear armed Iran."
A practical certainty now thanks to how bungled this was. Still worth it?
"3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel "
Those aren't two different things. They're the same thing.
rehajm said...
"…it was the lure of vengeance and free stuff paid for by ‘rich people’. "
I said a while ago that "eat the rich" was a winning strategy. The Republicans got uncomfortably, too comfortable with the tech bros, billionaires, corporations and the rush into AI. A lot of people are actually really scared by (and viscerally hate) AI and that cannot be ignored.
That seems to strike the right tone to me. Disappointed, but realistic and transparent about the reasons, so let's stop sucking our thumbs and climb back into the saddle.
I'll still vote for Rubio in the primary at this point, but I'd happily support Vance or DeSantis in the general.
You are a fool, RSM.
I do not mean to be impolite, but there are no other words to describe you opinions about the Middle East.
I question whether the Republicans lost because Republican voters switched over and voted Democrat. Seems to me more like more Democrats showed up and a lot of Republicans didn't. Switching over and voting for Democrats would be unusual behavior (does anyone who previously voted Republican trust the Democrats about anything?).
Vance seems to be conceding "the narrative" that Iran and Israel were the primary factors for Republican voters. I don't buy that at all.
Vance has the record to present himself as an opponent of the Iran war.
You think so? The same guy that tried to educate the POPE on how Catholic doctrine supports the War in Iran? You really think he has the bona fides?
Vance is a gutless weasel. He was against the War in Iran before he was for the War in Iran and also after he was for the War in Iran. He is the same man who called Trump "America's Hitler."
Vance has no future. He's done.
“ He was the skeptical voice on the inside when it was being planned. Who else has that distinction?”
Not Rubio. He’s not a viable candidate for ‘28; there’s too much orange on him. Trump should just resign now and give Vance a head start. He’s going to need it. Trump’s main accomplishment was saving us from Kamala; I could have done without all the Greenland, Canada, Gulf of America, Trump-Kennedy Center nonsense. Time for him to enjoy his golden years.
The incumbent party using loses seats in the mid-terms. This was worse than usual because of the war and gas prices. Whats funny is the "true conservatives" and "DC republicans" loved the Iranian war. And their only beef with Trump is he didn't start WW III with Russia or give another 200 Billion to Ukraine.
Thankfully, we might be spared the usual DC Republican cry of "We need to pass Amnesty to get Latinos".
"but there are no other words to describe you opinions about the Middle East."
There is now: "Correct". Say it with me now...
Your smokin some strong shit, Maynard.
Personally, I think it had more to do with "Do-nothing" Republican Senate. They passed zero legislation that Trump and MAGA wanted, and have let the Judiciary stop anythin Trump did by executive order.
Why go to trouble of voting for a Republican Senator? They'll do nothing- and want to be in the minority.
I spoken many times that our support for Israel has led to our significant blessing. No other country can claim the prosperity we have blessed over the past 80 years or so. One could see the anti-Israel disdain snowballing. Vance wants to change our relationship with Israel? We are toast.
"Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
That's not what happened in Kansas. The D's showed up, and the R's didn't. Same thing in Ohio.
"I spoken many times that our support for Israel has led to our significant blessing"
Yeah, because God and Netenyahu are best friends forever. You must be joking - or a lunatic.
I never imagined in my Baby Boomer lifetime that anti-semitism would become so common among the Left as well as some aspects of the Right.
Thank you RCO.
Oil suddenly down 9% today. That's not suspicious at all.
With the RINOs out of power, maybe Trump can get some legislation done for a change. They can't be any worse.
Vance supported Vivek and his stupid ad up to the end. He'll never be able to explain that away.
I spoken many times that our support for Israel has led to our significant blessing. No other country can claim the prosperity we have blessed over the past 80 years or so
You credit Israel for America's prosperity? It was the Israelis and not the Americans that were responsible.
⬆️ This is why MAGA loses. Keep saying shit like this.
Not anti-semitism. Common-sensitism. Israel has never been the friend to this country your generation thinks it is. The same MSM many like you now distrust is the same MSM that has been running interference for their frenemish behavior for decades. That interference is now crumbling, and some of those younger "aspects of the right" you mention can not only see the one-way nature of that multi-decade relationship but aren't going to allow it to be swept under a rug anymore. America's "wife" has been two-timing Uncle Sam for years, and it is *time to reevaluate the nature of our association*, across the board.
I have been unwaveringly consistent. "America comes first. Israel and the rest of the world comes second...or sometimes not at all."
You people are doing denial and anger simultaneously, so I guess that's a step in the right direction.
We all would have preferred symbolic foreign policy gestures as well. The Iran War was a big mistake.
And so were the trade wars. Congress should reestablish its primacy in regulating foreign commerce. Congress needs tight control over this power. I hope both parties can agree on this and get a veto proof bill passed. (This stuff is in the Constitution, let's respect that.)
But thanks to the Democrats, we are going to have another immigration and border crisis. Another round of "unprecedented numbers" of undocumented children flooding across our southern border. And more military age men from God knows where. Of course, we'll be told to ignore the explosion in criminality as these people embed themselves in our communities.
Also, JD should shut up. He's not getting my vote.
Crew members of USS Liberty couldn't be reached for comment.
"Eight States Elect Dems – and Overwhelmingly Pass Voter-ID, Citizenship Laws"
Are they serving alcohol at the polls now?
This part of Vance’s tweet is signal that he is going after Hegseth, that's what it's about. It doesn't matter if it was the Iran War or not, Vance is going to use it to bring Hegseth down.
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