"Several crises have been long in the making; each now threatens to accelerate the others. The first is a crisis of liberal democracy. Polls suggest that the far right may take power in the presidential election next spring. The second is a crisis of fiscal mismanagement. France’s public debt has reached a record $4 trillion... The third is a crisis of youth disaffection. French students, protesting.... Mr. Macron deserves some of the blame for the mess. So does the opposition, from the far-left France Unbowed to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally...."
Writes Mujtaba Rahman, "the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm," in "France Is No Longer in Control of Its Destiny" (NYT).
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८१ टिप्पण्या:
Islam has France in its jaws. It's now doing the crocodilian death roll.
It’s much less complex than all that. The French have ceased having little Frenchmen and women. They are hooked on their generous welfare state and wouldn’t dream of working until age 65. Therefore, they imported young, fertile third worlders who hate, HATE La France…et voila! Une Soupe de Merde.
"The first is a crisis of liberal democracy. Polls suggest that the far right may take power in the presidential election next spring."
When their side loses, it's a crisis for democracy.
"Polls suggest that the far right may take power in the presidential election next spring."
That's what many nations need right now. Will France survive that long? "Far right" = Centrists before the mind virus hit.
It’s not the far right. It’s the center against the Islamic Left. So update the newspeak
The death spiral circles like a Helix Escargot or more appropriately, like the 18th and 19th Arrondissements in Paris.
Mrs. Hawkeye and I spent the summer in France. It was a marvelous experience. Like most French people, we avoided the immigrant-dominated areas and the Muslim neighborhoods, so our sojourn was tranquil and we were able to enjoy French culture. It is a lovely lifestyle, but one that cannot last. Like the USA, France is on an unavoidable path to bankruptcy because the people prefer to crash their children’s and grandchildren’s future instead of facing up to what they have done. Like us, they have no leader willing to tell the truth about the inevitable result of multi-generational profligacy. I see no way out, for them or for us.
How often do you see "right", as opposed to "far-right"? Virtually never.
Do they think people can't see that?
What did Voltaire say about Islam?
Fourth time's a charm, Marine? Well, I'm not betting the ranch on it but I certainly hope so - the howling when she goes all Trump on France would be so entertaining.
Most of Europe is in the same bad state of trending towards chaos.
The fiscal mismanagement and the youth disaffection are actual problems. The prospect of the "far right" taking power at the next election seems like more of a potential solution. Also, if a party wins the majority of the votes, is it really an extremist fringe party, or is it the new mainstream?
France's troubles got worse, or as we say in English, were exacerbated, by his jiggering with the elections to keep the voters from getting their choice. The reason that. the center is having so much trouble is that it is pro-war, and guess what? European kids would rather live in peace than be drafted into a. war, even if it means that Ukraine has to treat its ethnic Russians with respect, remain neutral, and foreswear nuclear weapons, all of which they had already agreed to do in the treaty that created their country.
• Recognition of Leadership: He praised Muhammad for rescuing Asia from idolatry, establishing a rational and straightforward monotheism, banning usury, and promoting charity.
• Comparison to Christianity: Voltaire often described Islam as "less impure and more reasonable" than contemporary European Christianity, frequently commending Islamic tolerance and scholarship relative to Christian sectarian violence.
Oh good grief, what a ridiculous scare-mongering column. Le Pen is not "far-right". Nazis are "far-right". Nor are the communists "The far-left" gaining any real traction.
As for its finances, France may have to borrow some money before it can get its spending under control. Wow, Great depression here they come. LOL.
THe Students are rioting because the Left in France loves to riot. They'd riot over a ham sandwhich. Its their 3rd favorite sport.
Yeah, I'm going to let some guy named Mujtaba Rahman tell me all about France.
Ouroboros culture.
The analysis can be encourage Les gauche
The socialists in France are unhappy because they helped re-elect neo-con big business supporter Macron. One thing Macron did was raise the retirement age. And its now on hold till the 2027 election. But if Macron wins again, they'll start raising it.
Which is hilarious. Le Pen was against raising the age to qualify for a pension. But to Socialists Le Pen is the worst person ever because...raciss or something. So they'll suffer. LOL.
If Le Pen is "far right" that means 40 percent of France is "far right". NYT's readers love stupid insult labels.
The French crime series, Engrenages, translated as Spiral, is definitely worth a look. The word "engrenages" makes me think of gears. Gears turning were part of the intro to the show. At any rate, "gears" is another definition of "engrenages."
Papa LePen may have been frighteningly "far right," but now the FN isn't scary. The current situation in France is scary. It's time to drop the "far right" label.
Engrenage was the name of the excellent French police/judges/criminals TV series "Spiral." Many seasons.
Like we’re in a position to mock France’s death spiral.
ai: "Yes, the word engrenage has distinct agricultural origins.
While its modern French and adopted English meanings refer strictly to mechanics (gears/gearing) or metaphors (an inescapable chain of events/slippery slope), the word literally traces its roots back to grain milling and farming"
The Core Root (Granum)
The Agricultural Verb (Engrener)
The Mechanical Shift: Early grain mills relied on heavy wooden or metal wheels with interlocking teeth to crush the grain. Because the act of feeding grain (engrener) into the mill coincided with these interlocking teeth catching and turning one another, the mechanical teeth themselves became intertwined with the word"
The reason why I thought it might is becase when I was a kid in The DR schools kids would refer to their testicles as "los granos". It may have started it out as an euphemism to avoid vulgarity, that ultimately backfired, because "los granos" became hilariously funny.
It's a cautionary tale for the US and many other nations as well. There is no political will to control spending, especially on the huge social welfare programs that are driving that train here and elsewhere. All of the political pressure is on the opposite side -- increase the spending, and forget about raising the money to pay for it.
"Yeah, I'm going to let some guy named Mujtaba Rahman tell me all about France."
Modern France? Allahu Akbar France? Maybe you should.
"There is no political will to control spending, especially on the huge social welfare programs that are driving that train here and elsewhere."
The second part of it is importation of a large, low-skill population who will draw from welfare programs we already can't pay for. At least there's some effort, under the current administration, to limit that in the US.
“When their side loses, it's a crisis for democracy.”
I noticed that.
Immediate gratification. Redistributive change. Deja vu.
…the major French crisis appears to be poor analysis of the crisis. Le droit? Quelle horreur!
20 years ago I first visited Paris and not a thIng has changed, slow steady decline in miserable living standards. The broader society has almost no comprehension of basic economics. They partially believe that the system which finances their fabulous welfare state is the enemy to do away with.
Over 40 years of socialism have caused profound damage to the country. More socialism won't fix things. The State is too big and inefficient. The pension system is an unfair ponzi scheme. Innovation and hard work are discouraged. A nation cannot tax itself into prosperity. That lesson should have been learned a long time ago.
It's an odd fact that if you try to curtail pensions, and explain to the youth that it is the only way to ensure they will get any benefits when their turn comes in the decades ahead, it's the same youth that will protest most violently.
People love to point to similar problems in the US any "well aren't we just the same?" We are very different (at least for now) in one huge respect. We have allowed our tech sector to thrive and grow, while they have regulated tech to an afterthought. Unless we elect Democrats and DSA we will continue to be the best (by far) of a bad lot.
Two things, having lived in a French-speaking country for over 20 years
a) "engrenage" most commonly means "putting into gear"
b) 20 years ago I was saying they the Fifth Republic was past its "Best By" date and would have trouble surviving for another generation.
The gears are definitely turning for the predicted collapse.
Liberal Democracy is a first-order forcing of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Immigration Reform and Ouroboros culture.
France and the USA both need a Milei. I guess most modern nations do. Nearly all lack someone with the intellect and the granos.
MM writes: 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘥𝘥 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭 𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘣𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥...
I agree 100%. The parallel to Social Security in the U.S. is striking. We face the same fundamental dilemma: make politically difficult adjustments now to preserve the system for future generations, or postpone the decisions and leave younger Americans facing more disruptive changes down the road. The longer we wait, the fewer options we have. Yet neither party seems eager to level with the public about the trade-offs involved.
One of my favs - Path Between the Seas by David McCullough - described how France was at the top of the world after building Suez and and then lost everything, including its pride, in Panama. Then you have WWI (most fighting took place in France, Pyrrhic Victory), disastrous Treaty of Versailles (Carthaginian Peace) making WWII inevitable, collapse of Maginot line (2-6) days, and 46 days for Germany to conquer France. The Algeria and Vietnam disasters and French guilt-driven idiocy in allowing massive migration from 3rd world. It's really time for France to just collapse before the immigrants burn down the Louvre and Eifel Tower and everything else. Maybe it will happen this weekend and who knows what will take its place. The NY Times has its head up its ass if it actually thinks this about quality of schools. Its about an economic and immigration system that absolutely does not and will not work and cannot be saved.
Ok, who hijacked IEE's account? The sudden spasm of common sense and intelligent commentary of IEE in this account makes me worried for his safety. Somebody please do a welfare check on him.
Bart Hall: "20 years ago I was saying they the Fifth Republic was past its "Best By" date and would have trouble surviving for another generation. The gears are definitely turning for the predicted collapse."
So the 5th Republic could be followed by the 1st Emirate?
CC, JSM
Social Security is easy to fix. Just raise the retirement age for benefits. A longer life expectancy doesn't mean a longer vacation for everybody but that you have to work a little longer in order to support the longer lived retirees.
At some retirement age, there are enough workers to pay the reduced number of retirees.
SS is an insurance program insuring you against outliving your income. Most people can save for an average life expectancy but nobody can save for the longest possible life. SS takes money from the quick-dying and uses it to pay the slow-dying. Like fire insurance takes money from people whose houses don't burn down and uses it to pay people whose houses burn down.
Yeah those crazy Frenchies and their love for "Socialism" and 35 hour workweek. Federal Government debt as a percent of GDP - France 5 percent. USA - 7.5
So the basis for the column "France is drowning in debt" is wrong.
I dunnon what it is about Business types and Establishment Republicans but they just hate social security. You keep telling them that there is no "Trust fund" and that the whole problem can be solved by getting rid of payroll cap and they refuse to listen.
SS is just a dollars in, dollars out transfer program. The world wont come to an end if they increase the payroll tax by 1 or 2 percent.
Why does the so-called far-right deserve any blame at all? Marine Le Pen and her allies have been trying to fix the problem, but have been totally shut out of power and outright attacked by the ruling elite, using some of the same bullshit banana republic lawfare our Deep State enemy occupation government has been using against its foes in this country..
*****
We are very different (at least for now) in one huge respect. We have allowed our tech sector to thrive and grow, while they have regulated tech to an afterthought.
*****
Our energy policy, even under the Democrat dipshits, is also far superior to the green woo woo that has impoverished the dying dinosaurs of Europe and put a torpedo into their industrial sector.
There are numerous ways to fix Social Security, starting with a rigorous audit and purge of the current database of dead and illegitimate beneficiaries. In addition to raising the retirement age, as suggested by rhhatdin, you could also cap the maximum lifetime payout, so someone couldn't take out more than some formula based factor of the total put in by the individual. Actuarial tables can very nicely track and suggest what that factor should be. You could still retire at a relatively early age but you would know in advance what your Max payout would be and if you needed to supplement that with party time work. There would be multiple benefits to society from that and a solid control on the balance in the fund.
Sacré bleu!
Le merde has hit le ventilateur…
“supplement that with party time work”…
Make work FUN!!!
"There are numerous ways to fix Social Security..."
Another thing that would help with funding is to stop spending money on welfare fraud and benefits that are going to people who are in the country illegally.
Most Western countries are in a downward spiral; it is just that France is at the front of the pack. Don't kid yourselves, the U.S. is following closely behind with our crushing debt, endless social programs, and political narcissism. As the economist Herbert Stein said, what can't go on forever, won't.
There is no "Far-Right" party in France.
LePen is a labour union liberal that wants to kick immigrants out because they are sucking the life out of the safety net they want for French people.
At this point "Far-Right" means anyone that doesn't want to import millions of Muslim Men to wage war on the native population.
Jaq said...
France's troubles got worse, or as we say in English, were exacerbated, by his jiggering with the elections to keep the voters from getting their choice. The reason that. the center is having so much trouble is that it is pro-war, and guess what? European kids would rather live in peace than be drafted into a. war, even if it means that Ukraine has to treat its ethnic Russians with respect, remain neutral, and foreswear nuclear weapons, all of which they had already agreed to do in the treaty that created their country.
You are missing the WEF/globalist aspect of the equation.
Obama bombed Libya on behalf of the French empire to keep France in control of the Sahel in Africa.
Ever since the Suez Canal the United States has been a tool of the European elite.
All of the Sturm and Drang we are seeing is Trump using the US Army for our purposes.
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Nationalists take over France, Germany, Spain and Britain.
RCOCEAN II said...
Yeah those crazy Frenchies and their love for "Socialism" and 35 hour workweek. Federal Government debt as a percent of GDP - France 5 percent. USA - 7.5
So the basis for the column "France is drowning in debt" is wrong.
The problem with France is their productivity is trash. Nobody wants to build anything in France.
Trump is able to attract capital because US workers are the most productive in the world. All he had to do was disrupt the structural cost advantage China had by taking out China's sources of cheap oil and reduce some of the more absurd Obama policies and regulations.
"In addition to raising the retirement age, as suggested by rhhatdin, you could also cap the maximum lifetime payout, so someone couldn't take out more than some formula based factor of the total put in by the individual."
Going to be a lot of 90 yo's totally pegged out.
Rahman's description of a "vicious spiral" captures something important, even if his warning of a financial catastrophe seems premature.
There's a fair point in questioning whether a National Rally victory would constitute a crisis for democracy. But, winning a free election isn't itself undemocratic. What matters is how the winning party governs afterward, particularly whether it respects constitutional limits, independent institutions, and the rights of its opponents.
France's fiscal problems go beyond spending on pensions and other social programs. The country faces difficult choices about taxes, retirement benefits, economic growth, and how efficiently public money is spent. Its generous welfare state has produced real benefits, even if financing those benefits is becoming increasingly difficult.
What concerns me most is the political paralysis. France's problems are serious but not necessarily unmanageable. Perhaps the real vicious spiral is that the longer its political parties put off difficult compromises, the more painful the eventual choices become.
There's also a critical lesson here for the United States when it comes to putting off difficult decisions about our own long-term fiscal commitments.
Polls say that a lot of Muslims are thinking about leaving if LePen wins. Of course, the poll -- or my translation -- could be wrong.
If you're not muslim, can you really trust what they tell you?
“the whole problem can be solved by getting rid of payroll cap…”
No problem that can’t be solved by the largest tax increase in history!
𝘓𝘦𝘗𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘪𝘤𝘬 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦𝘵𝘺 𝘯𝘦𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘍𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘩 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦.
Sure, she’ll just balance the budget and cap borrowing while simultaneously raising pensions, lowering the retirement age, fixing the housing crisis and handling deportations.
Realistically, she has no choice but to tackle the deficit first. The moment she does, her popularity will crater, potentially paving the way for the French electorate to panic and vote in a left-wing firebrand who finishes off whatever’s left of France.
The French don’t like sacrificing the benefits they enjoy. She’ll crash on the same rocks as those who came before her. Blaming the EU and migration will only get you so far when cutting benefits, healthcare and early retirement pensions may be the only way to rein in overspending. But such cuts will bring the country to a standstill as the French take to the streets in protest. Why anyone would want that job is beyond me.
" in addition to raising the retirement age, as suggested by rhhatdin, you could also cap the maximum lifetime payout,"
And, free euthanasia for hangers on.
Not sure how Social Security became the subject of this thread but let's just call it out for what it is.
Social Security is an evil ponzi scheme that the wealthiest generations in the history of the world have forced younger generations of Americans to pay into by law under threat of prison.
Social Security is a scummy evil institution and anyone that supports it in any way is greedy and scummy and evil.
Younger generations will remember what you scumbags did to them.
“𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘦 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘪𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘢𝘱…”
A realistic plan to stabilize Social Security would require a combination of raising additional revenue, modestly adjusting benefits for higher-income retirees, and protecting lower- and middle-income beneficiaries. The key is to act early enough that changes can be phased in gradually, rather than waiting until Congress faces an immediate funding crisis.
The political challenge is that neither party has much incentive to acknowledge the trade-offs. Democrats are reluctant to discuss benefit changes, while Republicans often favor tax cuts and spending reductions that make it harder to close the program's long-term funding gap without asking more of higher earners.
Social Security was created in 1935. In order to be able to vote in 1935 (and therefore, have some responsibility for the politicians in office at the time), one would have to have been born in 1914 at the latest. ChatGPT estimates that there are approximately 20 people still alive, who were born as late as that.
Good luck shaming those who forced Social Security on the country. Everybody else is living under a program that existed before they had a say in who made the laws.
'...France and the USA both need a Milei....'
My thoughts precisely. And raising the retirement age is spot on, too. It wouldn't be all that hard to get our financial house in order, but nobody has the collective balls to do it. Pretty much anybody with a credit card or bank account understands what balancing the budget means. It would mean 3-5 years of national pain and then, look out. Our political leadership class lacks the balls to even think about it, much less plot a course.
put BJ Pritzker in charge of all debt.
He just magically erases it.
Seals clap.
From David Burge (aka “IowaHawk”);
“David Burge
@iowahawkblog
Apr 27, 2011
If you have to explain why something is funny, it isn't. If you have to explain why something isn't funny, it is.”
That was April some 16 years ago. More recently there is this;
“David Burge
@iowahawkblog
15h
In total objective honesty, the Shane Gillis monologue had zero comedy value until people started posting angry Tik Toks about it”
How many of you who want to fix SS by "raising the retirement age" have worked an actual job past the age of 65 or now 67 for some? Say a 12-hour shift in a refinery, or working as a long haul trucker? If you haven't, do you think your body was or will be up to at 70? And if you have a pleasant office job, who is going to hire you when your ass is run off at the age of 60? I look forward to a band of septuagenarians shaking down corporations negro-style for disparate impact due to lack of aged employees.
@ Achilles - I seem to recall that Social Security is an artifact of the New Deal and it preceded me coming of age as a voter by 40 years, but hey, you're rolling. As a greedy and scummy and evil recipient of Social Security, I would gladly accept a check for the sum of taxes paid by myself and my employers, plus compound interest at the average rate of stock market return since 1973 when I started paying in exchange for ending the program.
“ Social Security is a scummy evil institution and anyone that supports it in any way is greedy and scummy and evil.
Younger generations will remember what you scumbags did to them.”
Hee hee…I twirl my mustache every time I deposit my check. And get off my lawn, punks.
"France Is No Longer in Control of Its Destiny"
And surrendering to the Germans is no longer an option.
The solution to SS is simple. Release an engineered virus from a lab, refuse elderly sick people access to hospitals, lock them all in nursing homes, and don’t let anybody out.
Or you could just prosecute fraud.
I live like Social Security no longer exists.
Regarding SS and the folks who refer to me as "scummy," "evil," etc., for cashing that yummy SS check month after month: I didn't make the rules; I just followed them. Your inability to understand this dynamic causes me to question your intelligence. IOW, LOL.
Marine LePen never goes away. How many times can a candidate lose? If you want change - find better candidates.
This is a problem all over.
Soviet Democrats in America (D) demand that Illegals get OUR benefits.
Leland 6:21 - Killing the elderly also helps.... Soviet Chi Com democrats gain more power. Win-win!
""The first is a crisis of liberal democracy. Polls suggest that the far right may take power in the presidential election next spring."
When their side loses, it's a crisis for democracy.
Yup. Can't have the French people choosing to be governed by people who "we" don't approve of.
The main reason that SS doesn't get "fixed" is because both parties (but the Dems and their shills in the press in particular) mercilessly and shamelessly demagogue any politician who dares to even mention anything but expanding the benefit side (or taxing the benefits of those who wisely planned ahead and have other income sources). No politician will touch it.
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