Althouse: The intriguing shape of the betting average graph.

२१ ऑगस्ट, २०२४

The intriguing shape of the betting average graph.

IN THE COMMENTS: We all get together and recognize that the "intriguing shape" is a dinosaur. Wince digs up the precisely relevant Monty Python clip:

३७ टिप्पण्या:

Elliott A. म्हणाले...: The honeymoon ended before the convention; २१/८/२४, १०:०६ AM
Achilles म्हणाले...: Looks slightly more realistic than the 2020 election vote graph.

Not much though. Still obviously fake.; २१/८/२४, १०:०६ AM
Lem Vibe Bandit म्हणाले...: Joy beats just about everything else. I’m telling y’all. I don’t see the Trump signs here in northern Georgia and if there is a Trump country, northern Georgia is Trump country, from Sabana to Duluth. I don’t know what’s happening.; २१/८/२४, १०:१४ AM
Gerda Sprinchorn म्हणाले...: ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.; २१/८/२४, १०:१४ AM
Chest Rockwell म्हणाले...: So Trump had a moderate decline compared to Harris large rise. And it looks like it's peaked and reversing. I suspect the more she's exposed to the public and her utter lack of policy positions and past statements catch up to her, we'll be at a Trump +3/5 or so.

Of course Trump can self immolate, but we'll see!; २१/८/२४, १०:१६ AM
Wince म्हणाले...: "The intriguing shape of the betting average graph," by Ann Althouse.

This theory, which belongs to me, is as follows... This is how it goes... The next thing that I am about to say is my theory. Ready?; २१/८/२४, १०:१७ AM
Holy Moly! म्हणाले...: Trump is a goof. People don't vote for goofs, much less have their signs in their yards.; २१/८/२४, १०:२३ AM
Marcus Bressler म्हणाले...: I have no faith in polls being real. According to a commentary I read this morning, the two polls that have Harris ahead were either over-sampling Dems and under-sampling Reps - or - had little or no transparency on how they came to their numbers. When the polls first closed in 2016, I was on the NYTimes website and Trump's chances at winning the presidency was in single digits (maybe 2%). We all know what direction that changed in as the results began to come in, results not burdened with stopping the vote counts and massive fraud being committed by those who counted the "ballots"; २१/८/२४, १०:२३ AM
narciso म्हणाले...: and ftx was a crackling good investment, rinse wash and repeat,; २१/८/२४, १०:२४ AM
RMc म्हणाले...: (Harris') utter lack of policy positions and past statements catch up to her

They won't, because most of the country will never hear anything negative about her. Every member of the MSM is terrified that they'll accidentally re-elect Trump by actually asking Kamala an untoward question.; २१/८/२४, १०:२९ AM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: "This theory, which belongs to me, is as follows... This is how it goes... The next thing that I am about to say is my theory. Ready?"

Exactly what I — Ann Not Elk — was thinking as I put the post together. Thin at one end... much much thicker in the middle... and then thin again at the far end. I almost put an image of a dinosaur in the post.; २१/८/२४, १०:२९ AM
John in PA म्हणाले...: My first thought of the intriguing shape was that it looked like a dinosaur.; २१/८/२४, १०:२९ AM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: Great comment, Wince, but you're the culprit on the italicization.

How do we turn it off?; २१/८/२४, १०:३० AM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: testing; २१/८/२४, १०:३१ AM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: Ah! I did it!!!

I know the secret.

For everyone else, just do an end italics tag; २१/८/२४, १०:३१ AM
narciso म्हणाले...: How about the lives of Mollusks; २१/८/२४, १०:४५ AM
john mosby म्हणाले...: I thought it looked like a silhouette of a phallus, pointing left, or a schematic of a vulva.

Prof, why do you keep showing us dirty pictures!?

JSM; २१/८/२४, ११:०९ AM
tcrosse म्हणाले...: Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy couple of months.; २१/८/२४, ११:११ AM
Whiskeybum म्हणाले...: Darn it Althouse! Now it’s no longer a secret!; २१/८/२४, ११:१४ AM
stlcdr म्हणाले...: Woa, the dems were down to 20%?! I don't recall any poll indicating the democrat presidential possibility being that low.; २१/८/२४, ११:२१ AM
tommyesq म्हणाले...: I just spent five days in deepest blue Vermont, and saw only a single Harris/Walz sign. No Biden signs. At least five Trump signs.; २१/८/२४, ११:५० AM
Yancey Ward म्हणाले...: I remind people that the poll averages the day before the 2020 election had Biden winning by 8%. Now, of course, the riposte is going to be that there was a margin of error of +/- 4% so the polls were right within that margin. Well, no- since we are talking about aggregated polls with 10s of thousands of respondents, the error bars are much, much smaller than what would be reported in a single poll. So, in 2020, the polls overstated Biden's support by 4%. Of course, all of the above is assuming the pollsters were all honest people doing their level best to guess the outcome, which any honest person is going to know is complete horseshit.

Biden was never behind in the national polling vs Trump- the race has always been, in my opinion based on the the previous two elections, about Biden and/or Harris +1 to +4%. That hasn't changed since Biden's expulsion from the race- what has changed is the motive for the pollsters.

Too many powerful Democrats wanted Biden to step aside and he would not listen last year or earlier this year. They wanted him out because they were afraid that too many voters would vote for Biden but then vote for the GOP in the down-ticket races. The Democrats are playing for taking both Houses of Congress plus the Presidency and they feared with Biden at the top they would fall short of taking the House and holding onto the Senate. They didn't want Harris either but she is what they are left with, so the pig lipstick has been purchased by the barrel by the press and most of the social media networks. Let's see if it works.; २१/८/२४, ११:५५ AM
tommyesq म्हणाले...: Also, note that the Harris climb ceased on August 15th, exactly one day before she gave her "price controls" economic policy statement. Just as in 2020, her speaking publicly kills her popularity.; २१/८/२४, ११:५७ AM
Yancey Ward म्हणाले...: As for the betting markets- these are almost surely too thin and open to manipulation- there are no good reasons for such dramatic moves other than that the variance is high because the markets are thin. You see a similar thing in stockmarkets- stocks with small floats are more volatile than stocks with large floats. These political prediction markets are like small float stocks- if you are trading them part of what you doing is attempting to drive them one direction or the other by having a big enough wallet. The DNC has a big enough wallet.; २१/८/२४, ११:५९ AM
tommyesq म्हणाले...: Since January, Trump has been on a steady climb, interrupted only by the phony "joy" of the putsch and replacement of Biden. Harris still has to ride out two more months.; २१/८/२४, १२:०० PM
David53 म्हणाले...: Looks like a Velociraptor to me. A cold blooded predatory reptile that feeds on those too stupid or too slow to escape.; २१/८/२४, १२:०४ PM
Rocco म्हणाले...: I saw a cannon on a turret.; २१/८/२४, १२:०८ PM
Rabel म्हणाले...: If you go to their site and change the 3 month limit to 6 months you will see a different kind of intriguing shape.

Keyword - Splooge.; २१/८/२४, १२:४७ PM
mccullough म्हणाले...: The graph resembles my 5 year old self’s drawing of my Stretch Armstrong; २१/८/२४, १:३३ PM
mccullough म्हणाले...: The graph resembles my 5 year old self’s drawing of my Stretch Armstrong; २१/८/२४, १:३३ PM
Freeman Hunt म्हणाले...: Racehorse.; २१/८/२४, १:३९ PM
n.n म्हणाले...: Gastrointestinal politics.; २१/८/२४, २:१२ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: Kind of fun with this shared italics responsibility. Like places where concealed carry is easy…; २१/८/२४, ५:३७ PM
Diamond म्हणाले...: A woman screaming during childbirth.; २१/८/२४, ६:१६ PM
rehajm म्हणाले...: Did dinosaurs build Stonehenge?; २१/८/२४, ६:२२ PM
~ Gordon Pasha म्हणाले...: 3 years of law fare have probably pushed a lot of Trump supporters to keep their opinions to themselves.; २१/८/२४, ९:३४ PM
Rusty म्हणाले...: Ya think. That's why there's no Trump sign in the yard. There are three or four families in the neiborhood who are unreasoning dem supporters. They are not above vandalism.; २२/८/२४, ६:२८ AM