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६९ टिप्पण्या:
…but but but the lefties here told us the conviction changed everything. Quelle suprise…
Pathetic.
Someone should be beating Crook, liar, high inflation/ open border Joe - easily.
It's over folks. The corrupt left will drag the husk puppet over the line again.
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!
Overreach is a bitch. Americans still appreciate fairness and what has been done to Trump is so obviously beyond the pale that the only country that will come to the rescue has shown up: $300 million and counting since Thursday. "Normal" America is voting with their Biden-diminished wallets.
Trump is going to be sentenced to jailtime or home confinement so the stark visual contrast between is massive rallies and Biden's dozen people can't be broadcast during the general election season.
It's an attempt to make the upcoming voter fraud more palatable for the voter-fraud deniers.
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY
That's the voices that live in your head. Nobody was *certain* of a hung jury. It was always a possibility, and the best that could be hoped for when Bragg's case came up bupkis, but it was never certain and I don't remember anybody saying it was.
Quit thinking that a 1984 Reagan-style blowout is going to happen. Even Reagan barely cleared 50% of the popular vote in 1980 against Jimmy Carter.
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!
Where do you get these silly straw men you bat around? Most of us were very clear we expected a conviction because the judge was so grossly intent on getting one, and no one thinks that 1 or 2% is beyond the margin of cheat. What gives us real people hope, as opposed to your hay-American cut-outs, is that Trump has made significant inroads into formerly D strongholds, minorities in general and a doubling of Black support in particular. Swing states Biden barely cheated enough to win are moving beyond the margin of fraud. PA will require validated signatures on mail-in votes but better than that, the R registrations are up 400K and D down 200K in a state Joe won by less than 90K. Similar registration inversions like that have happened in NV and AZ and GA.
There are still challenges, but Trump has succeeded where no Republican has gone before. Certainly none of your milquetoast GOPe straw-candidates were able to sway the base. Keep shitting on Trump if it makes you feel better, but it's an ugly look for someone who says she wants him to win.
Blogger Never-Biden Never-Putin said...
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!
I was predicting a guilty verdict. Following a logical trajectory of the corruption and lawfare, Trump is going to prison, or home confinement. If you think they realize they've gone too far this time...you're dreaming.
Trump won in 2016. Trump won bigger in 2020. And if anything can be done about swing state absentee voter fraud...he wins in 2024. That's the main factor.
DeSantis would have faced the same voter fraud this year. And he probably will in 2028.
Mike MJB -
Are you kidding? All sorts of people on the right side of the media were saying so.
"The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!"
1. Considering that the election will be accomplished through the Electoral College, an approximate tie in the popular vote will probably be accompanied by a decisive win for Trump. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 48% of the popular vote and Trump won 46%. So even if Biden is ahead by 2%, he's probably looking at a loss in the Electoral College.
2. The point of this post, as the headline makes clear (unless you're looking for fog), is that the Morning Consult poll has remained steady through the period of the big news of the conviction.
3. Who was "certain of a hung jury"? You're speaking of people who live in Fantasy Land. You are reporting from the scene.
Mike,
While your optimism about Trump's chances fills my heart with hope...
Get over yourself. The corrupt left will not let it happen.
After the booking of Trump at a Georgia jail the Trump campaign raised $7 million dollars in 24 hours based solely on the picture, the most it ever raised in 24 hours. After TheVerdict the Trump campaign raised $150 million in 24 hours - and outside groups supporting Trump raised another $150 million. Now it seems that at the same time no potential votes shifted. The two facts taken together need explanation.
Some unusual kind of political event happened.
For example, it may be that support for a candidate solidified in an unusual way or that opposition to the other party solidified in a way unusual in America. Or it may be that factors outside politics-as-usual that exist in the minds of non-voters have suddenly attracted them to the Trump side because of the verdict, e.g., "You can't fight city hall, but this man tried and look what They did. As usual." What if non-voters now support Trump? Are they going to stay non-voters?
Vote for 34 in 24.
2 34 3
34 x 45 = 47
All of those polls are of Registered Voters. Polls of Likely Voters tend to be more accurate.
It depends on how the Popular Vote is distributed. If Trump gains mostly in already solid Red or Blue States, with little or no improvement in purple states, Dems will still be happy.
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
Where do you get these silly straw men you bat around?
There are still challenges, but Trump has succeeded where no Republican has gone before. Certainly none of your milquetoast GOPe straw-candidates were able to sway the base.
6/4/24, 8:58 AM
The Vichy wing of the GOP is just fine with the McMahons, the Epoch Times, Rudy Giuliani, and Trump in particular going to prison. It is necessary, in theory, for their grift to resume. Nonetheless, even with the weight of billions of dollars behind them, RDS and Nikki Haley didn't even deny Trump a majority in Iowa. Which puts the allegedly amazing popularity of RDS into heavy doubt.
So there's going to be considerable bitterness among the useless consultant class even if Trump agrees to report to prison and SCOTUS declines to have him released. He's proven much better than they ever were at being elected.
Compare and contrast (as seen on X): Day 2 of Hunter Biden's trial is starting. Yesterday, the jury was picked. Many in the jury pool personally knew the Bidens. One played squash with Beau. Another worked at the same school as Jill.
Cuz no one's above the law, right? But when the prosecution and defense both want to lose, this is what it looks like.
RCP average Trump +.7
oh boy! He's on the cusp. Big lead.
Oh noes!
Ann.
#3. All the youtube videos I watched of various people on the "the right" including many of Fox News.
remember when Rich (who Claims to be intelligent) told us that Trump's ability to fund raise would be crippled by the "convictions"?
Trump Reportedly Raises $200+ Million Since Verdict
remeber when Rich (who Claims to be intelligent) told us that Trump's approval would collapse?
Independents favor Trump by 12 points despite guilty verdict: I&I/TIPP poll
i'm STARTING to Think, that Rich MIGHT NOT BE as intelligent as he Claims
You mean there is no tsunami of outrage that will garner Trump a 50-state win?
Joe Biden is a mainstream member of a cohort of senators from the 1970s through the 2000s who were essentially mediocre players in a political paradigm of feckless policy bought by political contributions from a wealthy and self-interest elite. These policies facilitated the great concentration of corporate monopoly power in every sector of the US economy.
Economic policy out of Washington for nearly half a century has been economic concentration and wealth and income concentration for the ultra-rich elite. That's it. Nothing for the average family but more financial insecurity.
In foreign policy, this cohort bought into every delusion coming down the road relative to the 1.8 billion person Muslim world. In particular, these senators drank the Kool Aid for decades about the two-state solution, another canary laying dead in the Middle East coal mine. Every failure in the Muslim world for decades has a "made in Washington" stamp on it. To what purpose? Cheap gas at the pump? In the 1940s and 50s, Nato and the Marshall Plan renovated and renewed Europe. What have we accomplished in the Greater Middle East? (But boy did we rake in the political contributions!)
What also seems apparent is that Biden actually believed in and continues to believe in a lot of policy myths. This is a guy who has been in Washington a decade or two too long.
The Democratic party out in the states has to take the party back from the Establishment in Washington in order to both renew itself and to create a new franchise with the American people. New leadership from the states is needed forthwith. The Democrats can have an open convention in August or defeat in November.
"#3. All the youtube videos I watched of various people on the "the right" including many of Fox News."
Put up some links, because most of us here think your perception is wrong. I think it was more an expression of how there should be at least a hung jury. And you say "certainty"... really?
One guy's thoughts...As the R and D party makeups have changed, I wonder how Registered Voter poll compared to Likely Voter poll will change.
Back 10 years ago or more, didn't R's tend to do better with Likely Voters relative to Registered Voters? Now the "vote all the time people" are trending D. R's and DJT need a high turnout election. Whereas in the old days, R's wanted low turnout elections. Or so I thought. Could be wrong.
gilbar “remember when Rich (who Claims to be intelligent) told us that Trump's ability to fund raise would be crippled by the "convictions"?”
It is genuinely hilarious how all these people who must view themselves as intellectual martyrs are being rinsed by a billionaire businessman pretending to be a politician for his ego (and to prevent going to prison). You'd think all those 'free thinkers' would pick up on this grift immediately.
Poll: 49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdict
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/poll-trump-conviction-election-independent-voters
Hard to see Trump losing significant republican votes on back of guilty verdicts. Almost every single GOP politician has already declared loyalty irrespective of the outcome.
But Trump as a convicted criminal is weaker with independents. and there are a lot of them.
The democrats really wanted/needed for this to be a crushing blow for Trump support. It wasn't.
Look again in two week
To quote Viscount Marshal Slim:
Nothing is ever as good, or as bad, as first reports
Wether I like or dislike the "poll results", I'm going to essentially ignore all of them for at least another week. Anything else is just running around with your hair on fire
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY
Not me. I remembered Mann v Steyn, likely jury intimidation.
I think Merchan will jail him. Unfortunately.
Big Mike said... Swing states Biden barely cheated enough to win are moving beyond the margin of fraud.
I wish I shared your optimism. It's possible, I suppose, but that little voice keeps telling me there's no way the powers that be are going to allow Trump to be President again. We have the whole summer for another shoe to drop, and I put nothing past them. Nothing.
Never-Biden Never-Putin said...
The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!
Prime example of "running around like your hair is on fire, but it isn't"
A Republican Presidential candidate who "wins the popular vote" in November will have a crushing victory in the Electoral College.
No GOP candidate is going to avoid losing NY & CA by large amounts. Wich is why national polls re worthless.
At least wait for a "swing state" poll before starting your false Cassandra routine
Sorry, I meant Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
My bad.
The glee coming from the women on The View, and MSNBC talking heads, makes me think Trump is really going to get locked up. It's like they know their birthday is only six weeks away. They're giddy.
George Snuffleupagus was trying to shut down Trump's lawyer when he was saying the prosecution was political. Like a typical liberal, Snuffleupagus said "There is NO EVIDENCE of that" and basically 'I'm not going to let you continue to say it.' He was gong to censor him real time.
Whatever you think might happen, my prediction is pick the worst / most outrageous thing, and that's probably it.
Gusty Winds said...
Trump is going to be sentenced to jailtime or home confinement
I really hope so
Because doing so would force SCOTUS to take the case, and toss it for its many infirmities (two most obvious: 1: Stormy's "testimony" about what supposedly happened in the hotel room with Trump was prejudicial and non-germain, so that alone would get the case booted. 2: The "don't need unanimity on the 2nd crime" ruling is in direct violation of Richardson v US)
No they are almost always wrong
Gusty Winds said...
Trump is going to be sentenced to jailtime or home confinement so the stark visual contrast between is massive rallies and Biden's dozen people can't be broadcast during the general election season.
Oh grow up. "Home confinement" means they set up a video connection for the massive rally. Jail means they play a recording Trump made for it.
Youwant to see REALLY massive rallies? Put Trump in jail
If I was part of the Never Trump wing of the GOP (Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, the Bushes, Liz Cheney)...I would want Trump locked up or confined just before the July 15th GOP convention in Milwaukee. They're in on it too.
These "Republicans" don't care of a Republican wins in November. If they can successfully wrestle the nomination away from Trump on this "convicted felon" bullshit, they will.
They know the MAGA base will stay home, and Biden would be re-elected. But for them, it's a better option that having Trump and the GOP voters continue to run "their" party.
Things are going to get worse.
Of course Liz Cheney wants Trump locked up.
And?
She is no longer a representative from Wyoming. Thank heavens.
__________________________________
Ann - I have no links. No time. I know what I heard - perhaps "certain" was not he best word - but certainly there was hope-filled conjecture from pundits on the right that the Jury would produce that verdict based on at least one sane person.... and that the trial was obviously BS.
Gregg.
Trump should be way ahead in the polls.
Blogger Greg the Class Traitor said...
Oh grow up. "Home confinement" means they set up a video connection for the massive rally. Jail means they play a recording Trump made for it.
Sure... after putting him in prison, their gonna let him bring in a production crew and pre-record rally videos on Rikers Island. And people are going to stand in line for 8hrs to get to watch a video screen. Happens at rock concerts all the time when the band can't show up.
I'm on the Trump train. But he's not a demi-god. His biggest crowds during the trial were at UFC fights that he could fly to. He held Bronx rally because he was in NYC. It was great, but the trial confined him as planned.
The outcome of all this is uncertain. I'm just trying to follow the trajectory. Hope I'm 100% wrong.
If they take him off the ballot we write him in
narciso said...
If they take him off the ballot we write him in
6/4/24, 10:35 AM
THIS^^ There is no way in hell we aren't going to bat for the only person that is telling us the truth about Government corruption and actually DOING something about it when the GOPe let him. Otherwise get used to being Serfs for the Communists running things now in Husseins fundamentally changed America.
@Althouse (9:01), excellent analysis, however, there are a few additional points that could be made.
First, measuring registered voters (RV) is potentially deceptive because it overlooks enthusiasm. Registered, but unenthusiastic, voters may not show up. If they’re sufficiently unenthusiastic they won’t vote. The only data I have that is not anecdotal in nature is the overwhelming outpouring of donations to the Trump campaign. But the anecdotal evidence agrees with the evidence of the huge amount of money raised for the Trump campaign in small dollar amount donations. That is, Trump supporters are pissed and they would walk across a mile of mixed hot coals and broken glass to vote for him. If Democrats hoped the “convicted felon” label on Donald Trump would weaken his base of support, but instead it has increased their enthusiasm.
Second, these are Trump voters, which says nothing about the races down ballot. It’s is (or should be) important to Trump to have a Republican Senate and a Republican House of Representatives to get his programs through. He, the RNC, and the individual candidates have a lot of work to do between now and November.
Third, while you are right, Professor, in your second point at 9:01 you mention that the overall numbers have not shifted. But there may be a lot of shifting underneath, with some Independents and Republicans moving away from Trump due to the “convicted felon” label, however I see anecdotal evidence that the verdict has also moved Indrpendents and Democrats into Trump’s column. How much movement has there been? This poll cannot tell us.
But I suspect that your main point is that the Democrats put a lot of effort into a show trial, but the net results are not a positive for them.
"The same people who were certain of a hung jury in NY, are certain that a Trump at +1 or +2 or a tie = Trump is winning!"
Trump is running, right now, 7-8 points better than he was running at this same point in 2020. While I don't really pay much attention to polls any longer because I can't trust the pollster didn't have an ulterior motive for running it, most of the polls are a kind of statement against interest if you assume most of them want to show Biden beating Trump by this point in the cycle of polling.
And, seriously, April Apple- who exactly was confident that the jury would hang? Most of Trump supporters believed there was only a small chance of that happening with zero chance of an acquittal.
Zoom rallies are in our future.
But don't get excited about the prospect of Red Waves.
"It depends on how the Popular Vote is distributed. If Trump gains mostly in already solid Red or Blue States, with little or no improvement in purple states, Dems will still be happy."
Sure, it depends on that, but all of the states are correlated electorally- a movement towards supporting Trump is going to occur across all of the states if it occurs at all. The absolute magnitudes of voters will be related to state population and the breakdown between Republicans, Democrats, and other for each individual state.
Yes, my comments keep disappearing.
Althouse- you might want to contact Google help to find out why the comments are vanishing without a trace. It isn't on my end of things since I posted comments at other blogs yesterday that use Google Blogger as a test.
a billionaire businessman pretending to be a politician for his ego (and to prevent going to prison)
Does anyone think he would still have even been charged with anything if he hadn't been a politician? If he had gone back to being a billionaire business man, all of this would have gone away (or never come about).
My comments seem fine. I suspect I can find a few where I was clear that the best case was a hung jury, but the judge was going to do his best to assure guilty. I also questioned those thinking Trump would get house arrest. NY judges have done nothing but give the maximum penalty they can imagine. I’m sure if draw and quarter was an option, Trump would get it and “liberals” would cheer.
I'm with "Gusty Winds" on most of this. My only worry is that the polls might scare the Democrats into using their back up plan. Assassination.
Oddschecker has Trump at -103 and Biden at +160 today, but there's no date attached (it's implied that those are current odds, but since it's illegal to bet on the election inside the US and since it's months to the election, who knows when they last ran them?), nor can I find any odds history on that site. I know those are post-verdict odds because I did check that site just before the verdict and they were different. Unfortunately I didn't take exact note of what they were, but the best odds I saw for Trump before the verdict were -110 or thereabouts, and about the same +160 for Biden, if memory serves.
Vegas Insider actually showed a little strengthening of Trump's odds from pre- to post-verdict, from even money to 5/6; Biden has been between 11/10 and 5/4 all along in the recent past.
I should maybe take the time to convert those to the same odds conventions, but the upshot is that the odds are still on Trump to win and those two sites are in relative agreement about what the odds actually are. Oh, heck: Vegas Insider's odds are bet $100 to win $83.33 on Trump (so, he's favored to win), bet $100 to win $110 (11/10 odds) or $125 (5/4 odds) on Biden; Oddschecker's are bet $100 to win $97 on Trump and bet $100 to win $160 on Biden, if I'm doing this right.
My personal opinion is that no matter what happens in the election, Trump will not take office on Jan. 20. Maybe he'll lose, maybe he'll "lose," or maybe he'll win but extenuating circumstances will arise.
I don't think he'll be assassinated; I can see much more lawfare resulting in his being disqualified on grounds that could, and should, be overturned by the USSC but won't be taken up in time. And then, as with 2020, everyone including Roberts will just say the question is moot, since we'll already have a president in office and we don't want chaos.
Quit thinking that a 1984 Reagan-style blowout is going to happen. Even Reagan barely cleared 50% of the popular vote in 1980 against Jimmy Carter.
To be fair, that was a 3-way race; Reagan beat Carter by almost 10 points, while John Anderson garnered 6 percent + change.
And Reagan won the EC 489-49.
Political Junkie said...
Now the "vote all the time people" are trending D. R's and DJT need a high turnout election. Whereas in the old days, R's wanted low turnout elections. Or so I thought. Could be wrong.
I agree with your sentiments, and I think that's what has been happening. There were some anecdotal reports that Hillary's GOTV machine was actually delivering Trump voters to the polls back in 2016. The GOP GOTV has always been lackadaisical because they used to be able to depend on voter conscientiousness to carry the day. The evident shift in who supports which party is both making it hard to figure out who should be targeted for GOTV efforts as well as the amount of effort needed.
I disagree a bit that a high turnout election is needed for Trump to win. If there is a significant enough enthusiasm gap then overall lower turnout might keep lukewarm Biden voters away, and could conceivably help GOP candidates down ballot (making a big assumption that Trump voters mark R all the way down the ballot)
a legitimate high turnoout, if you have another ballot avalanche then katy bar the door,
we know the tricks they pulled in maricopa and even pima county, on election day 2022,
now the facts on the ground, suggest a positve result,
I was going to comment on this post by Mike (MJB Wolf):
"There are still challenges, but Trump has succeeded where no Republican has gone before."
but I see doctrev already got there:
"The Vichy wing of the GOP is just fine with the McMahons, the Epoch Times, Rudy Giuliani, and Trump in particular going to prison. It is necessary, in theory, for their grift to resume."
That seems to pretty much sum it up.
Mary Beth said...
"a billionaire businessman pretending to be a politician for his ego (and to prevent going to prison)
Does anyone think he would still have even been charged with anything if he hadn't been a politician? If he had gone back to being a billionaire business man, all of this would have gone away (or never come about)."
All his legal troubles would all disappear if just quit running.
Gusty Winds said...
Greg the Class Traitor said...
Oh grow up. "Home confinement" means they set up a video connection for the massive rally. Jail means they play a recording Trump made for it.
Sure... after putting him in prison, their gonna let him bring in a production crew and pre-record rally videos on Rikers Island.
So apparently you think the Trump Team are such complete morons they can't figure out how to record anything before Trump goes to jail?
I don't know if Trump will win this year, but I do know that he SHOULD win. Last time, Trump was a contentious character running in the middle of a pandemic against a benevolent old guy with a reputation as a moderate. Now we know that Trump -- although still contentious -- is as much a victim as a cause of contention. And we know that Joe Biden is a mean, nasty, vicious little SOB, who uses his political power ruthlessly against those who oppose him.
So vote for Trump, if he's your guy. But I fear that many of you who do so will ignore the rest of the Republican ticket -- what you disparage as the "GOPe" -- and that's a fatal mistake. Sure, there's a lot wrong with what long-time conservatives like me called "the Republican establishment". But in our constitutional system, the President MUST HAVE a Congress he can work with -- and if the President is Trump, he won't be able to work with a Democrat-dominated Congress. Working with a GOPe Congress may be "a Labor of Hercules", but if Trump is your guy, trust that he can deal with that,
Do they have the presidents priorities you notice how the dems dont make that mistake no matter how harebrained how dangerous a notion they are 100% on board
The economic integration of the advanced economies undergirds total US wealth like no other single factor. US wealth is integrated into the global economy like no other economy in history. To undermine the cohesion of this group of economies would diminish US wealth by a third to half or possibly more. This would create economic contraction way beyond that experienced in the 2008 financial crisis.
What undergirds the cohesion of the advanced economies? The network of security alliances is fundamental to this cohesion, the insurance premium that keeps the enterprise functioning. Almost every advanced economy democracy has a formal treaty-based security relationship with the US or is in the direct shadow of such a relationship.
It is hard to imagine that the coming US election will not put preserving societal wealth and the country's national self-economic interest front and center.
It's not surprising that Trump supporters would cough up a lot of money in response to the railroading he received in the NY courts.
But that doesn't translate to additional votes.
Look! Rich learned something in school today.
Rich said...
What undergirds the cohesion of the advanced economies? The network of security alliances is fundamental to this cohesion
What will keep those "security alliances" as ACTUAL "security alliances"?
Trump forcing the others in them to meet their obligations. Which they currently aren't doing. Making them "security welfare" NOT "security alliances".
FIFY, Rich
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