Link to RCP, link to Bloomberg/MrnConsult.
In all but Arizona, Trump's lead has increased since the last Bloomberg poll, which was taken in late November/early December. In Arizona, Trump lost a point. He was up by 4, and now he's up by 3. In Georgia, Trump has gone from being up by 6 to being up by 8. In Michigan, from up by 4, to up by 5. In Nevada, from 3 to 8. In North Carolina, from 9 to 10. In Pennsylvania from 2 to 3. In Wisconsin, from 2 to 5.
Click on the interactive electoral vote map, and give Trump all those swing states, and he wins the Electoral College vote 312 to 225. In 2020, Biden won all of those swing states except North Carolina.
ADDED: I'm reading the details at the Bloomberg link. I had a laugh-out-loud moment: 1% of registered voters, asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Joe Biden, say they've never heard of him. In the various demographic sets, the percentage 1% keeps reappearing... until you get to the group with a post-college graduate education. Two percent of them say they have never heard of Joe Biden. A brainy witticism, perhaps. Ah! And there's a 3%. Three percent of guess who say they've never heard of Joe Biden: atheists!
पोस्ट्स
६२ टिप्पण्या:
Normal and intelligent non-progs the nation over realize 100% that Crook Joe (Mob-husk-puppet deluxe(D)) is a liar, a fraud and a menace to our nation.
and that NBC can suck on a Molotov cocktail and drop dead.
Didn't he lose Nevada both times? Can't get optimistic about that state when you know the Las Vegas returns will be late and ruin what the rest of the state wants.
First, we should see who gets nominated.
Matt Tiabbi has an interesting read over at Racket News about the fix already being in for the upcoming election. I'm guessing the Dems will declare martial law somewhere along about October. Others may differ.
It will be the ultimate Trump Effect if their attempts to drive him out of politics end up giving him the greatest political comeback in history, humiliating Biden, and giving him a chance to add two or possibly three SCOTUS nominations, plus possible win a major war.
The goal is to win every state except possibly for Delaware’s 3 electoral votes. Of course Al Gore lost his home state, so maybe Joe Biden can lose his home state, too.
"Three percent of guess who say they've never heard of Joe Biden: atheists! "
That's because they don't believe in the devil.
Biden will be gone by Tax Day.
100% of those polled have never heard of me, but 30% know my work. I can live with that.
- Krumhorn
By September, if he is still in the race, even Howard, Freder, and Readering will be claiming to not have any idea who Joe Biden is.
As for the polls- don't believe them- these polls have a specific purpose- to force Biden out of the race. I would be surprised to find they are being paid for by Newsom, Clinton, and/or the Obamas.
Just who is this Biden fellow you mention? I'd like to know more! I wish I had never heard of him.
The only remaining question was first posed by Ben Franklin. Can we keep our republic? If that scum bucket Joe Biden wins, with approval numbers that leave him envious of Jimmy Carter, the people will have been defeated.
Right now he is facing a humiliating climbdown from his ill-advised threats against Iran, or bumbling into WWIII, at a time when we have dissipated our military stocks in a pointless war thousands of miles away on Russia's border. Which will it be Joe? Which will turn around your dismal polling numbers? Can you get those millions of "asylum seekers" flooding over our border registered to vote in time?
Trump only started flame wars on the internet.
It really seems to be shaping up that the eventual Democrat candidate will bypass the primary process, on the way to them trying to rig the general election through lawfare and fraud.
omg - E Jean old woman fraud was on Maddow's show bragging about spending Trump's money on new wardrobes, new clothes, new fishing gear, and trips to France.
ahahahahahaha. After NBC hack liar Maddow attempted to lead E Jean into the "but you're gonna give all that money away to women's charities - right?'
ahahahahaha
+1 Yancey Ward
The corruption in Arizona is both parties.
Pollsters have recently polled those that count the votes. Biden won in a landslide.||
Who are we kidding? Trump has no chance of winning. Jail, more lawfare, more indictments, more tax charges, more sex charges. The Commie-Pinkos are just dusting off more ammo.
"plus possible win a major war"
LOL. Why should Republicans fund Ukraine when a significant part of those billions will just come right back as kickbacks to fund the Democrats? Ukrainians lost the war when they got involved in American domestic politics in 2016, well, earlier when they got mixed up with Joe Biden's corruption. That's right, the Ukrainian/Democrat strategy is to never admit, always deny, and counter accuse, especially accuse the other side of whatever dastardly think you are doing that is visible in plain sight, so that people just look at it and don't see it. "Russian collusion" was exactly that type of accusation.
Here, I will show you an example, you will just look at it and it will bounce off your eyeballs. They use these propaganda techniques because they work.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/us/politics/what-is-the-black-ledger.html
It was a pack of Ukrainian lies on the front page of the New York Times that took down Trump's campaign manager. But it was an own goal anyway, because he was replaced with a far better one, Kellyanne Conway, the first woman to run a successful presidential campaign, BTW.
The polls are as accurate as they can be for registered voters.
We won't see the important and more meaningful polls using likely voters until Labor Day.
Joe Biden dies and comes to the Pearly Gates.
St Peter looks at the books, lets out a low whistle, holds up a finger and picks up the phone. He punches the button marked 'God Himself'.
He looks at Biden and says into the phone, "It's Biden..."
"Joe Biden..."
"You know, he was President..."
"Of the United States..."
"No, just, like a couple years ago..."
These are more than likely the REAL margins of the Trump win in 2020.
Acting surprised now is just stupid.
Can you poll a fake absentee ballot?
"The polls are as accurate as they can be for registered voters."
Registered voters skew Democratic in a big way.
Since the D's can rig the election - they will keep Crook Joe.
he's king-pin of the grifitng operation. sort of a front to the rest of the corrupt operation that goes on behind the scenes. (this is why Newsome groveled before it all)
Notice how all Crook Joe's media events take place outside next to the whirring helicopter. LOL.
It helps drown out his husk-puppet and robotic old man dementia.... and complete inability to answer questions off the cuff without q-cards and such.
The problem for the Democrats is that they have turned Trump into a perfect folk hero. "The trickster" is the archetype. They will need to crush him, perhaps, like with William Wallace, they will have him drawn and quartered, and hang parts of his severed body in the central square of the capital cites of red states.
fake news
fake news
Yes, the electoral winner but it won’t come to that…
Cling to your ‘Biden will be replaced’ fantasies if that helps you through your day…
If 3% of atheists have never heard of Biden, well, it's hard for atheists to give the devil his due.
All of those changes in the polls are fairly small and well within the margin for error. Anti-Trumpers should worry a little that they are all moving in the same direction, though.
It just means the Democrats will need to cheat harder than last time. I'm predicting that Biden (or whoever they switch in for him if they Torricelli him) will get more than 90 million ballots this time, compared to 81 million ballots last time. And he'll need every one of them to "win."
5 points is not nearly outside the margin of cheating... and even 8 is questionable.
But I guess NC really is safely in the Trump column.
back in the Trump4Evah days I assumed he was on his way to a landslide reelection. Then covid came along.. LOL I have too much empathy, because I knew he had to be thinking SHIT why now?
Cue the conspiracies...
Trump needs to win for a host of reasons, none of them due to competence. Number one is to show the world that the institutions don’t get to run everything.
In Arizona, McCain RINOs would rather sell out to the fascist left than support Trump or Lake. Butthurt.
Elsewhere, I believe arbitrarily, that Trump needs a real lead of 8+ points to offset Democrat rigging and fraud. Dems might still overcome, but the cheating would be so obvious that some judge would be afraid to ignore it.
In Georgia, Trump has gone from being up by 6 to being up by 8.
wonder why?
Stacey Abrams’ Nonprofit Implodes After Shelling Out Millions In Failed Election Fights
a group Abrams founded to combat alleged voter suppression in Georgia, will be laying off 75% of its staff and significantly narrowing its scope of operations, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. The organization holds $2.5 million in debt but only has $1.9 million in cash, according to the AJC.
Fair Fight raised more than $100 million during its first three years of operations..
Things appear to have begun going downhill for Abrams’ nonprofit after the 2020 election cycle.
Fair Fight Action had more than $21 million in net assets at the end of 2020, according to tax filings. That figure to just over $1.5 million with $2.5 million in debt in 2022, tax documents show.
Much of the cash raised by Fair Fight directly benefited Stacey Abrams and those close to her.
Of the millions Abrams’ nonprofit spent on legal fees between 2021 and 2022, more than $9.4 million went to Lawrence & Bundy, a law firm where Abrams’ former campaign chair, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, is a partner.
Speaking of anti-Trumpers, what happened to Chuck?
"Fair Fight raised more than $100 million during its first three years of operations.."
I find numbers like that incredible.
The idea that 40+% of registered voters favor Biden, who is obviously mentally impaired and whose policies have been so clearly disastrous, is super scary.
"We won't see the important and more meaningful polls using likely voters until Labor Day."
We won't see the important and meaningful polls until a week after the election.
"Speaking of anti-Trumpers, what happened to Chuck?"
Chuck's liver moved to Australia in order to save its life.
Reporting from AZ by counties: Yavapai (Prescott) is solid R; Coconino (Flagstaff) near solid R (students at NAU are D); Maricopa (Phoenix Metro) 50/50; Pima (Tucson) leaning R; Native American counties solid D, but low population; everywhere else solid R. Arizona is swung R!
Unfortunately the will of the people, as expressed in these polls, is likely not going to be reflected in vote counts. It seems that in most states democrats still count the votes, which is unfortunately more important than who votes.
Speaking of anti-Trumpers, what happened to Chuck?
Speak of the devil and he doth appear.
Trump is way up? He's a shoe-in?
Then he doesn't need my vote.
Kirk Parker said...
"5 points is not nearly outside the margin of cheating... and even 8 is questionable.
But I guess NC really is safely in the Trump column."
2 or 3 maybe but five means there actually has to be some obvious work involved. Anyplace not using mail in ballots is going to have a very difficult time covering the spread. Not that it can't be done. I'm sure it can, but the bigger the gap the graeter the chance of getting caught.
In 1952 or so a poll was done of the Indian people and how they felt about the British leaving.
Some large percentage did know the brits had left.
But an even larger percentage, istr in the 40-50% range but might be wrong, didn't even know that the brits had been there at all.
John Henry
When was the last time anyone saw a serious news report on actual reform of voting laws to insure only valid votes are counted for candidates? I expect to see some in the week following the next election. Just like during the week following the last election.
Rusty said...
but the bigger the gap the graeter the chance of getting caught
caught by WHO? the "news media"? the police? the courts?
if some citizen says that they caught them.. That citizen will be looking at a life in jail*
jail* not prison, because prison requires a conviction.. which requires a trial.. which requires a charge
Biden will not be the Dem nominee and Trump will do two dozen things in the coming months to destroy any good will he build up. He got lucky enough to squeak by HRC. Trump is a loser. The reason the GOP doesn't possess the Senate is because of Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz, Trump's golden boys. Even if he is ahead now, he will fuck it up. It's what he does.
None of this matters as long as vote counters give Biden 80 million votes again. Would not even be un-precedent because precedent was established in 2020 election.
"Normal and intelligent non-progs the nation over realize 100% that Crook Joe (Mob-husk-puppet deluxe(D)) is a liar, a fraud and a menace to our nation."
Yes. And so is Trump. We're at a point of decline in our nation that truly capable and honorable persons do not want to seek--and are unable to be elected--to become POTUS.
Registered voters skew Democratic in a big way.
That has been the pattern in all but one election for the 40 years or so that I've been following political polls.
For some reason it reversed in 2020, as Joe Biden's magnetic charisma drew out millions of previously lackadaisical Democrat voters. This was the very first time that "registered voters" skewed more Democratic than "likely voters".
[Ha ha, very funny. Let's not kid ourselves. It's one more strong piece of evidence that the Democrats stole the election with forged absentee ballots. This is the ONLY reason we have the Dominion machines, which have made the vote counting much slower than the paper ballots of my youth.]
Look at where America is today, and imagine a Biden presidency completely unconstrained by the need to ever win another election.
Reporting from AZ by counties: Yavapai (Prescott) is solid R; Coconino (Flagstaff) near solid R (students at NAU are D); Maricopa (Phoenix Metro) 50/50; Pima (Tucson) leaning R; Native American counties solid D, but low population; everywhere else solid R. Arizona is swung R!
Good news, but this poll seems highly likely to be horse shit. There is not even an alternate universe in which Republicans do better in Coconino or Pima counties than in Maricopa.
"Yes. And so is Trump."
Really?
Show your work.
"Yes. And so is Trump."
Really?
Show your work.
gilbar said,
"caught by WHO? the "news media"? the police? the courts?"
Us. Keep your phone on at all times.
Trump needs to win for a host of reasons, none of them due to competence. Number one is to show the world that the institutions don’t get to run everything.
I think I'm down to two paradigms: 1970s Britain, and lots of South America, any old time.
I lived in England in 1982-84, so in the fairly early to mid-Thatcher era; it was... bleak. It wasn't 1975-bleak (I infer from British television from that period), but it was still not remotely as prosperous as the US. Then, I lived there again in 1992 and things were so much better. In this paradigm, the US declines into socialism and things get... bleak, but we recover and fight on.
Then there's the South America paradigm.
I fervently wish Trump weren't running. But since he is, I just as fervently want him to win, to show me which paradigm we're living in: can we vote our way out of our decline, or are US elections now Marxist-fascist theater?
They can't poll the dead, and the dead always vote Democrat.
Mark said...
Trump is way up? He's a shoe-in?
Then he doesn't need my vote.
1/31/24, 11:31 AM
Like a progressive Biden lover would ever vote for Trump to begin with. YOU vote for YOUR guy who is destroying America as fast as he can Mark. Do it for your children. Illegal aliens love idiots like you. How many do you support in your home?? Make room. They are coming.
In all but North Carolina and Georgia, that is inside the margin of cheating/votes manufacturing I expect in the next election.
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