I'm just noticing the most recent polls (at Real Clear Politics):
३१ ऑगस्ट, २०२३
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
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४५ टिप्पण्या:
If Trump is an orange, Biden is a kumquat. Orange beats kumquat. Everytime.
But every headline I saw yesterday was that he "lost 6 points" since the mugshot. Huh.
It is an astonishing tribute to the stupidity of America that anyone would admit to preferring Biden regardless of his opponent.
By now, the proper term is stupid, not ignorant. Regardless of mediaswine gaslighting, anyone who pays a bill, buys gasoline or groceries, lives near a southern border, or really, draws breath in the US, can see the fruits of Biden's reign.
The only poles that matter are the ones the dems use when they get the carriers of prepared votes out of the truck.
Polling and I would add economic modeling was developed to make Astrology look respectable.
2016 wasn't the fluke, 2020 was. Any GOP incumbent would have lost to Biden, thanks to the effects of COVID and the riots. If anything, Trump outperformed historic GOP candidates, especially in the Rust Belt. The problem for Biden is that his win was by the thinnest of margins, and now he can't afford to lose any votes, even as he has to tack hard-left in order to appease his base. Add in that historically independents shift away from the party holding the WH, and you have a recipe for trouble.
What happens when a government refuses to be turned over to a new administration?
It would be interesting to see which way the needle swings if you screened for Likely voters instead of Registered Voters.
By now, the proper term is stupid, not ignorant. Regardless of mediaswine gaslighting, anyone who pays a bill, buys gasoline or groceries, lives near a southern border, or really, draws breath in the US, can see the fruits of Biden's reign.
This is why I think Trump might just pull it off and make America even more a laughing stock world wide. The lefty fascists are going to have to get more extreme if they really want to stop him. They are certainly capable of it. Ask a J6 political prisoner.
Democrat Election Officials: Polls? We don't need no stinking polls!
One more indictment and Trump will be a shoo-in for 2024.
+1 to Hombre at 10:22am.
I get that many people vote party over candidate, and so will support Biden no matter what because he's the Democrat or they'll support Trump no matter what because he's the Republican, but it still amazes me that they will openly admit that Biden is a bad president who is not fit for the job and has put the United States on a path to ruin, but they're going to vote for him anyway because he's not Trump.
Obi-won told Darth Vader that the Democrat formula would not work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVBX7l2zgRw
The people I know who I've talked to about it don't participate in political polls. They do, however, vote so their opinions matter when it comes to election results. How do pollsters account for these people? Computer models that just make up shit? You know- like the climate change people do?
I said, polls!
Huh, good God, y'all!
What are they good for?
Absolutely nothing!
Say it again.
I find it interesting that the three polls that are listed twice l, having been recoded during two different time periods — Emerson, Morning Consult, and Economist/YouGov — show the same trend: Donald Trump has moved up on Joe Biden by 1 to 2 points. In all three cases Biden’s support seems to be holding firm, it appears that undecideds are moving towards Trump. It’s interesting, but no more than that. The real poll will be taken on November 5, 2024, and we are still more than 14 months away.
Things to keep in mind:
(1) Registered voters are not necessarily likely voters and even likely voters will not necessarily vote for either candidate (unless someone is ballot harvesting, in which case not only will they vote, whether they want to or not, but they may find their ballot being cast for the person the like least).
(2) it’s quite possible that one or the other or both men will not be on the ballot. People in their 80s die of natural causes all the time. The lefty news media seem determined to whip up Trump hatred in hopes of pushing the next James Hodgkinson over the edge and try to assassinate Trump. Or either or both may simply be beaten during the primaries.
(3) People lie to pollsters.
remember!
according to BOTH the GOPe and the DNC.. the ONLY person that can lose to resident Biden is Trump!
That is WHY, they are BOTH so desperate that he not run. Because they are afraid he'll win.
As i've asked time and time again.. IF Trump can't beat Biden; What republican COULD??
Which republican candidate (EVER?) received the most votes?
Who are the people that wouldn't vote for Trump, that would vote for DeSantis?
Pence? Hunchinsin? Christy? Nikki?
(just to clarify, i'm asking new questions not answering the 1st.. But YEAH; maybe those)
Who would get the most minority voters votes? Pence or Trump?
hombre said...
"It is an astonishing tribute to the stupidity of America that anyone would admit to preferring Biden regardless of his opponent."
There it is.
1 or 2 points? That's crap. The nominee needs to be above Biden by much larger amount. Say 6-7 points at least. 10 or more points would be best.
Trump will not get indies. Sorry. Much in the way of delusional talk on the right that I's and D's will shift to Trump based on outrage. No they will not. and D's are delighted in the Neo-Stalinist criminal charges.
I put this up late last night:
"New York’s attorney general asked a judge for a partial summary judgment against Donald Trump in her $250 million lawsuit accusing the former president of widespread fraud."
Seems like it deserves attention. Once again, an effort to bypass a trial and the rights of the accused in our judicial system and have a judge simply declare him guilty.
How the fuck can anyone who calls himself a patriotic American not support the man when his opponents in the government shit all over the Constitution like a diarreatic bull in a police cruiser in their demented efforts to bring him down?
Notice Trump hasn’t said much lately? There is a lesson in that.
Ann's screenshot is just the top of the complete chronological list of all the polls that Real Clear Politics follows. The three shown in white just poll more frequently (weekly for the first two, every two weeks for the third shown) and they've been superseded by later ones from the same people (and thus do not contribute to the calculated average). Anything below that last one has been superseded.
If you look at the whole list, Trump used to be several points higher in many polls, but has been in a slump for about two months.
RCP reports on what the pollsters are doing, which right now is almost all "registered" voters. Closer to the election, many of them will switch to likely voters. This far out, there are too many people who are waiting to decide whether they'll vote until they know who the candidates are.
Toward the right side of your screen, there's a box for betting odds. They show a graph for that, which is worth a look.
One more indictment and Trump will be a shoo-in for 2024.
Like the famous quote from Pyrrhus (paraphrasing): "One more victory like this, and we will be ruined."
HEAR!!HEAR!!! Rabel @ 1:35pm!!!
Judging by the reception he received in Hawaii........I'm guessing these numbers are fudged........considerably.
"Toward the right side of your screen, there's a box for betting odds. They show a graph for that, which is worth a look."
Worth a look? On Nov. 7, 2016 the same site had the betting odds for Hillary Clinton at 82% and Donald Trump at 12%. On Nov 8, 2016 Donald Trump was elected President.
So, yeah, a look shows that the betting odds posted on RCP are totally unreliable.
Another reason I don't think Trump can win: Dem-Linked Group Attempts To Bar Trump From Ballot In Key States
It doesn't take many swing states doing this to doom Trump's chances; probably only one. I have little doubt the liberal WI Supreme Court would allow this.
The name of this group is a hoot: Free Speech for Everybody. Do these people have an ounce of self awareness?
“What happens when a government refuses to be turned over to a new administration?”
Excellent question, mezzrow!
"The ‘Trump or Bust’ Vote is Real
“They’re not going to be blackmailed.”
@BIGDATAPOLL Director @Peoples_Pundit explains how the Republican Party needs to take the huge “Trump or Bust” vote seriously, or they’re finished as a national party.
Pollster @Peoples_Pundit discusses how the GOP would get destroyed in 2024 without Trump, dismantles Ron Desantis’ “electability” argument
“[Desantis] would lose Miami-Dade to Joe Biden. Donald Trump would carry it.. a ton of Hispanics are telling us ‘I’ll write in Trump’”"
https://revolver.news/2023/08/new-fl-polling-data-destroys-desantis-entire-raison-detre-and-blows-up-the-establishment-republican-narrative/
“What happens when a government refuses to be turned over to a new administration?”
Hint: it sounds a lot like artillery fire.
Look for “Russia” to commit some heinous act of war against the US or NATO or maybe just a grain ship explodes and sinks in the Black Sea, and we are suddenly at war. That’s the textbook solution to a problem like this. A false flag, or maybe as in the case of Pearl Harbor, an irresistible trap, which bait, combined with the prodding of an oil embargo, dastardly Japan took. Anyway, the President of the United States has the power to create shifts in the dynamic.
We can call it “The War of Biden’s Re-election,” since “The War of Jenkin’s Ear” was already taken.
Trump or bust.
Worth a look? On Nov. 7, 2016 the same site had the betting odds for Hillary Clinton at 82% and Donald Trump at 12%. On Nov 8, 2016 Donald Trump was elected President.
So, yeah, a look shows that the betting odds posted on RCP are totally unreliable.
The Predictit.org betting site had similar odds going into that election--I think it was around 80-20. I put money on Trump. :)
Chinese laughing about helping Biden get elected and expressing “traditional goodwill” through Hunter, because they were mad about the tariffs.
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1335055783176892419
Another reason I don't think Trump can win: Dem-Linked Group Attempts To Bar Trump From Ballot In Key States
It doesn't take many swing states doing this to doom Trump's chances; probably only one. I have little doubt the liberal WI Supreme Court would allow this.
We should abandon Trump in the hopes that the crazy lefties will suddenly play by the rules? Fuck that. They don't get to make threats to burn it all to the ground unless they get their way. If they want to do that, I'll hand them the match myself.
Also, the whole idea is stupid. Of the four, OH and FL are non-starters because they are locks for Trump. NH is basically a Biden gimme anyways, so it wouldn't matter. WI is the only real swing state. Any court is likely to throw out an attempt to keep Trump off the ballot, and if the WI SOS still tried to go through with it, the likely result is that it would be kicked back to the WI legislature to sort out. And the WI legislature is GOP controlled.
One more indictment and Trump will be a shoo-in for 2024.
I've been saying this as a joke for two years. (Suddenly, it's no so funny anymore.)
Blogger tim in vermont said...
as in the case of Pearl Harbor, an irresistible trap, which bait, combined with the prodding of an oil embargo, dastardly Japan took.
A bit off topic and more about how FDR goaded Germany into declaring war against us all the while campaigning and promising that he would never get us into another European war.
It also has a chapter about Japan and how we goaded them as well.
Last week I finished "Those Angry Days" by Lynne Olsen. It may be the best non-fiction I've read all year. It is about the battle between the "isolationists" who wanted to keep us out of WWII from about 1939 vs the "Interventionists" who wanted to get us in.
The isolationists, right up to Pearl Harbor, outnumbered the interventionists by 5 or 10 to 1.
But FDR finally got us into the war. For similar reasons. The depression had been going on for 10 years and FDR just could not end it. A rootin' tootin' shootin' war seemed like just the ticket.
It did work, but there were certainly better ways.
Anyway, if you want a fascinating read, this may be it.
I think the author believe
Average - Biden +0.8 - wow- Trump's lead is like, stupendous and stuff
Rabel said..."Seems like it deserves attention. Once again, an effort to bypass a trial and the rights of the accused in our judicial system and have a judge simply declare him guilty.
How the fuck can anyone who calls himself a patriotic American not support the man when his opponents in the government shit all over the Constitution like a diarreatic bull in a police cruiser in their demented efforts to bring him down?"
Total nonsense. Parties move for summary judgment all the time. If there are facts in dispute, the motion will be denied. Its like the Know Nothings never heard of litigation.
Suppose you are a Trump supporter who has noticed what has happened to others around the country who also support Trump. A pollster contacts you, so they obviously know who you are and where you live. What do you tell them?
polls are misleading. Democrats will come home and vote for Biden against Trump even if they don't like him. But a bunch of Republicans will stay home and Trump will get stomped again.
Trump or bust? No. TRUMP OR WAR.
Mason G.
I've been polled a couple of times. I lie like hell. It's really too early to take these polls seriously. Next summer will be the tell. People will start paying attention. Of course if there's a nuclear exchange anywhere on the plant Trump's a shoe in.
The 2024 election is already guaranteed to be a very entertaining circus. So I'm gonna wait on giving any real attention to it until about October 23rd, next year. I have sooooo many other, better things to do than encourage these clowns.
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