Writes Byron York in "The shape of the GOP race so far" (Washington Examiner).
York seems to be saying the Trump challengers need to get a "clear theory" — other than the theory that Trump is so awful people will have to turn away from him. Trump's problems become his great advantage. He seems like the underdog, but he's also the overdog. One may psychically bond with underdogs... and with overdogs. Trump is both the underdog and the overdog. That's quite a show. And yet so many are counting on people to turn away from that ultra-compelling show. The other candidates are staring at that show, fixated by the grip it has on voters. They can't look away from the failure to look away.
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The MSM Trump drumbeat - Trumpbeat - continues apace.
The theory is not that Trump is so awful his supporters will turn away from him, the theory is that Trump's opponents think he is so awful they will turn out in masses to vote for a meat puppet controlled by who the hell knows. None of the anti-Trump agitprop is aimed at Trump supporters. It is all aimed at anti-Trump Democrats and Independents and especially those who harvest mail in ballots from eldercare facilities and post office dead letter offices.
York is such a lamo. that he writes all this "horse race" crap doesn't surprise me. De Santis and all the pygmies challenging Trump need to give a reason WHY Republicans should change horses in mid-stream.
Trump is an ex-POTUS running for a 2nd term. Why should we dump him for DeSantis? Tell us the reasons. And DO NOT give us the lame opinion that DeSantis can win and Trump can't unless you can show us your crystal ball.
Moderate Republicans justified nominating Ford, McCain, Dole, Romney, and McCain because "They could win". And they didn't. And they claimed 2016 Trump and Reagan were "Too extreme" and "couldn't win" - and they did.
Most Republicans want Trumpism. With or without Trump. The problem with DeSantis is he's supported by a lot of people (Yeb, Paul Ryan, Karl Rove, etc.) who HATE Trumpism. We don't need more Romney/Bushism, with or without a Romney/Bush.
The Dems have duped the Republicans again.
Trump wins the primary and loses to Gavin Newsome in the general.
Women hate Trump. Even conservative women. Nebraska's second district is a perfect example. It is mostly metro Omaha. Trump lost it and the single Electoral College vote that goes with it. But the GOP Congressman won.
The MSM(D) controls the narrative... and speaks to the many losers who watch it.
They do not want DeSantis. They do not want Trump - but they do want Trump.
DeSantis was rising when he stuck to discussing policy rather than backhand commentary on Trump’s troubles. DeSantis shouldn’t shy away from flinging mud back at Trump, if that is what needs to be done. Still, Trump won in 2016 on policy that his voters supported, even if many of them wouldn’t call themselves Trump supporters. We want good policy and we want it implemented.
Trump is both the underdog and the overdog.
Trump is a popular dog and baloney sandwich.
Trump's enduring support is because a large portion of the GOP base hates the party, and the political establishment in general, and the more that Trump is attacked the more he becomes a symbol of these folks and a vehicle for their disdain. They're happy to lose, as long as the GOP establishment doesn't win.
As for the notion that Trump can't win the general, that is absurd. He already won once (not getting into a debate over the steal) and he lost in 2020 by an incredibly narrow margin. Biden will go into 2024 having to defend a weak economy, a collapsing world order, military humiliation, and an administration that seems increasingly like a clown car rammed into a dumpster fire.
Historically even popular presidents lose support from independents in reelections, so there's no reason to believe that it won't happen to Biden. If Trump gains back just 2-3 points with independents, he wins the election, and it's not even close. But- and this is key- that only works because Trump turns out the base. Another Republican isn't guaranteed to do that. If the GOP share of voters drops back to 32-33 percent like we saw with McCain and Romney, Biden will win another term, even if the GOP challenger wins independents.
“Something will happen to make Trump implode”
The latest independent council is not trying hard enough.
They’ve been treating Trump with kid gloves.
I think that DeSantis would do a better job as President, but I'm supporting Trump.
It's make-or-break time for this country. The leftists may run the educational system and the giant corporations, but it ends here.
No more, no further.
The disparate treatment of Hillary vs. Trump in the handling of classified documents, the massive coverup of the illegal activities of the Bidens, the attempted gaslighting of America over sex roles- if it continues, there is nothing left to keep on for if Biden, or Newsome, or any other leftist runs the country for another 4 years.
The leftists have to be shown that the normals are back in charge.
Trump, by any means necessary.
It's too depressing to ponder, Trump vs. Biden again. Biden's handlers are president for another four years. This is the best we can do?
Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 elections. The voter fraud, COVID, 2020 riots were all aimed at Trump and the his populist supporters.
When I hear Chris Christie talking about how awful Trump is, he is basically saying he hates the 50% of the GOP base that supports Trump. Same with Paul "Puke" Ryan.
The attacks on Trump are all bullshit. And they are setting new, dangerous precedents. I just figure there are a lot of people in American that know that.
Jumping ship on Trump at this point strengthens:
Voter Fraud
Censorship
Never Ending Wars
Federal and Deep State Corruption
This is all probably mute. Gavin Newsome will be installed in 2024.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong here; but neither Byron York, nor Althouse made a single mention of "general election electability." Did I miss it? If it was mentioned, it was only in passing.
I do think that any presence of Donald Trump in any national debate is harmful; malign; dangerous. But with Trump hovering around 50% of Republicans, that means something like 50% are "not Trump." I expect that of the "not Trump," there are some Republicans who are reeeeaallly not-Trump. It might be 3%, or 13%, or 30% of that not-Trump minority. Whatever the case, that's a fatal number in a national general election where races are won by inches, not miles.
Trump barely won in 2016. He lost in 2020, by a larger margin than his 2016 winning margin. Who the heck thinks that Trump is a better general election candidate now? Who thinks that Trump will be a stronger 2024 candidate than he was a 2020 candidate? After many more indictments, after more bad news, after more Trump-branded chaos?
I would acknowledge that something terrible could happen with Joe Biden between now and November of 2024. What percentage should we put on that possibility? 1%? 5%? 25%? I don't know for sure. I do know the percentage possibility that some major criminal liability is coming Trump's way. That percentage is 100%.
Hard not to conclude that the indictment of Trump is bringing about its desired results. "He's the only candidate we can beat, so let's indict him. That'll bring out all the braindead Republican voters who'll vote for him in the primaries as a fuck-you to the system, even though they know he'll lose the general."
I like Ron DeSantis. But what has he done so far in the campaign to peel away the MAGA base?
The silence of DeSantis and the other GOP "candidates" is basically supporting the lawfare being aimed at Trump.
If they're best hope at the GOP Nomination is hoping Trump is sent to prison, then they are no different than the crooks that are going after Trump.
California GOP is already screwing around with primary dates and 50% winner take all delegate rules.
"...the theory that Trump is so awful people will have to turn away from him."
I invoke the pale.
Nearly all politicians are far beyond the pale. They constantly, and possibly necessarily, say and do things that most voters themselves would never do.
We all know people like that (in general - greedy, lying, thieving, duplicitous assholes). Successful politicians are the best at being like that, and Trump is the best of the best. They all point and gasp. It's kind of fun seeing them consumed by their own envy.
Everyone who is fair minded can see that these court cases are drummed up by Democrats to harass Trump and have no real merit. Of course Democrat dominate juries have no problem with these nonsense. A woman whose legal fees are paid by a big Democrat donor files a ridiculous lawsuit with no evidence of anything. The jury awards her $5 million. No problem. It will be reversed on appeal but Trump will spend time and money fighting it. The Mar a Lago raid and subsequent indictment is so ridiculous that it might be thrown out. It's not just Trump. Netanyahu, Bolsonaro, and even Nigel Farage are under attack by the forces of Marxism converted to Fascism.
DeSantis is an obvious regular politician, at least to some of the many. Which is to say bound to be a disappointment.
Trump poll numbers up!
Sam Harris hardest hit.
Many Americans still have a strong sense of fair play. Guilty or not, it is axiomatic that Trump is the target of discriminatory prosecution by people who are most likely criminals themselves and are certainly unethical.
Most Democrats, on the other hand, have little or no sense of fair play. They favor the prosecution of Trump and other iniquities like reparations, cancelling student loans, etc., while bleating, "Equity! Equity!"
DeSantis needs to attack the Democrats generally on a practical and philosophical level. He should ignore Biden except as an example of a typical Democrat, an unpunished criminal with no political goal except to create more opportunities for graft, bribery, insider trading, and racketeering and no interest in the average citizen except as a captive to be bled of the money and resources used to bribe parasitic voters with stolen largess.
So far Trump only fights fellow Republicans with abusive nicknames or spurious invective. DeSantis can fight back by elevating his rhetoric. He should praise Donald Trump, but in a way that contrasts his failures to DeSantis's victories.
Seems like its the old trope (?): "They aren't after Trump: They are after you. Trump is in the way."
The Government flexing its power is no way to endear oneself to the Government.
To clone an Archer phrase:
"Do you want Trump? Because that's how you get Trump!"
York seems to be saying the Trump challengers need to get a "clear theory" — other than the theory that Trump is so awful people will have to turn away from him.
That theory has been disproven so many times these people are the political equivalent of flat earthers.
What many can't see is the people calling Trump awful are more awful than Trump.
This is Trump's nomination.
DeSantis needs to back away, and preserve his goodwill.
"York seems to be saying the Trump challengers need to get a "clear theory" — other than the theory that Trump is so awful people will have to turn away from him."
Sorry, but the "Trump is so awful" trope is effective only with white wine swilling, suburban liberal female voters who still believe Trump's worst offense was his "mean tweets".
From the very start back in the early DeSantis campaign planning stages in 2022, the entire strategy was to lay back and let Team Dem/DeepState/GOPe Lawfare take Trump out and then have DeSantis slide in as the obvious replacement acceptable to all factions. Reality hit earlier this year so DeSantis had to jump in earlier than expected and the jig was up shortly thereafter on who was backing him and the likely policy implications of that backing...soon demonstrated with that first early Ukraine statement that was walked back followed by deeper scrutiny of DeSantis' Paul Ryan-ish congressional record.
The rest is history.
The floor is littered with candidates the GOP establishment types "helped" into an early poltical grave.
I do still believe Trump will be removed. However, I dont believe DeSantis is in any shape to really take advantage of that possibility any longer in a primary or general election.
I'm not going to try and explain it anymore. If you're too damn dumb to understand you're probably too damn dumb to vote.
One of the biggest things Trump has going for him is that he appears to have nobody telling him what to do behind the scenes. Can you say that about any other candidate?
About this time in the 2016 cycle I was all in for Scott Walker. What happened to the man that's quenched his fires?
fairmarketvalue
said...
"Sorry, but the "Trump is so awful" trope is effective only with white wine swilling, suburban liberal female voters who still believe Trump's worst offense was his "mean tweets"."
That statement in and of itself is a fairy-tale.
The real reason people (not just the women you reveal your bigotry about) do not trust Trump - goes far beyond "mean tweets"
I don't give a crap about Trump's tweets - mean or otherwise.
Other than he wasted a lot of energy on twitter- which in hindsight was stupid.
-Trump never drained the swamp.
-Trump never built the wall.. ( tho the promise is what was bogus as a full wall on the southern border will never happen anyway)
-Trump never went after Hillary
-Trump never freed Julian Assange.
-and on and on... (yes he did some good things - things I fully approve of! Trump's economy rocked)
Petty name-calling turns voters off.
Democrats acting like Soviets turns voters off - except the soviet hivemind far left obedients.
Mikee
I think you've got something there.
"DeSantis is an obvious regular politician, at least to some of the many. Which is to say bound to be a disappointment."
RDS barely wins his first election, and in the second he turns a purple state into red, winning by nearly 20 points.
Redefining disappointment up, way up.
I voted for Trump. He did a good job as President -- NOT GREAT, but good. But the next election is too important to vote on the basis of emotion.
We have a potential candidate in DeSantis who embraces the same conservative/nationalist values that Trump did, and who has actually had experience in government -- and it was the lack of such experience that sunk Trump. I'd love to stick my thumb in Old Joe Biden's eye, but the best way to do that is to support DeSantis.
I voted for Trump. He did a good job as President -- NOT GREAT, but good. But the next election is too important to vote on the basis of emotion.
We have a potential candidate in DeSantis who embraces the same conservative/nationalist values that Trump did, and who has actually had experience in government -- and it was the lack of such experience that sunk Trump. I'd love to stick my thumb in Old Joe Biden's eye, but the best way to do that is to support DeSantis.
It surprises me that pollsters no longer consider the impact of name recognition.
Trump is way ahead because even the ignoramuses who have no idea of what is happening in the world know who he is. Most of them have no clue who Ron DeSantis is.
"DeSantis needs to back away, and preserve his goodwill."
WAG... DeSantis has been told if he doesn't derail Trump in 2024, he won't be in the conversation when it comes to selecting candidates in 2028.
Hard not to conclude that the indictment of Trump is bringing about its desired results. "…[L]et’s indict him. That'll bring out all the braindead Republican voters who'll vote for him in the primaries as a fuck-you to the system, even though they know he'll lose the general."
It’s so incredibly, fiendishly clever of Democrats. Indict Trump on plainly false charges. So that Republicans [“braindead Republicans”!!] vote for him in primary elections when it is actually clear to everyone else that Trump will lose the general election. “[E]ven though they [Republican primary voters] know he’ll lose the general.”
How to even respond to a plot of such devilish genius? What could anyone possibly do to foil such a plot? And who knows, what other ways that Democrats might get millions of Republicans to vote in primaries the way that Democrats want them to vote?
The last time the international Commie conspiracy came up with anything this monstrously conceived and dangerous was when we got fluoridation of water. General Ripper was onto that one. To preserve the essence of our precious bodily fluids.
LMFAO.
Trump will win the primaries if things continue the way have so far. More petty indictments; no proof, weak case. Trump will lose to whoever the Dem is and I don’t think it will be Biden. He’s already lost to the Dem cheating machine once. Women especially can’t stand him. He’s an inarticulate boor and he’s not capable of talking his way out of this. Repeatedly saying this is a witch-hunt won’t sway any voters. We who voted for him already know that. Those who didn’t or those who lost faith aren’t going to suddenly change their minds. Trump will lose if he wins the primary and it looks like he will.
Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney - they all have one thing in common. They won the primaries against much better candidates and they all lost. JEB Bush - cut from the same cloth as the three mentioned above. Nice guy with great gubernatorial credentials but he was a lost from the git-go. We have a smart articulate governor who is willing to stand up and fight and he’s never admitted to pussy grabbing or withholding top secret documents from the government. How about we give a real winner a shot at it? Vote for Governor DeSantis.
Dave Begley,
"Women hate Trump. Even conservative women."
This observation clearly gets filed under the Affirmative side of the question, "Was The 19th Amendment a yuuuuge mistake?"
Blogger Gusty Winds said...
I like Ron DeSantis. But what has he done so far in the campaign to peel away the MAGA base?
The silence of DeSantis and the other GOP "candidates" is basically supporting the lawfare being aimed at Trump.
I finally saw DeSantis talk about economics today. Trump should quit bashing DeSantis but DeSantis needs to step up and talk about something other than Disney and culture wars. He started to say something sensible about Ukraine but was quickly hushed up by his donors. That was a terrible scene. He looked like a puppet.
J Melcher said...
"About this time in the 2016 cycle I was all in for Scott Walker. What happened to the man that's quenched his fires?"
I voted for him enthusiastically in his gubernatorial runs in Wisconsin, but got the impression from the first debate that the Presidency was above his pay grade. Just an impression, of course, but he didn't distinguish himself as I thought he could; but I also felt he was lost in the huge field of contenders. There were too many people in the mix and he didn't seem to be saying anything to differentiate himself from the others who were saying more or less the sane thing about their vision for our nation.
I'll add my contention that Donald Trump was the Archie Bunker candidate. People weren't supposed to like him (fronted as he was - probably - as the DNCC's straw candidate), but he said things that most of the other candidates were afraid to state plainly. And just like Archie, the (D) Party leadership didn't understand his appeal.
Still over a month away from my paying it any mind.
nobody is going to choose one of trump's bitches when they could choose trump
at a minimum, to win, a competitor will need to stop pretending all his faults are actually someone else's faults
Trump Humpers =/AKA Soap Opera men. Should they be allowed to vote?
Kirk Parker said...
Dave Begley,
"Women hate Trump. Even conservative women."
This observation clearly gets filed under the Affirmative side of the question, "Was The 19th Amendment a yuuuuge mistake?"
I think Trump supporters should grasp that and go for it. Dear Pro-Trump or nobody man-camp,
Please convince Trump to repeal the 19th amendment. Screw all the women who voted for Trump. They are not good enough, either. icky wine swilling hos.
You got yourselves a winner there, soap opera men.
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