From "Trump Looks Like He Will Get the 2024 Crowd He Wants/Ron DeSantis entered the presidential race last week along with Tim Scott, with others to follow. For the former president, the more candidates the better" (NYT).
It's a relentless dynamic: The more opposition Trump gets, the more dominant he becomes. His antagonists only dilute themselves. It's a matter of math.
पोस्ट्स
७० टिप्पण्या:
The media will let us know who they fear.
God I miss the old days with candidates being selected in smoke filled back rooms during the conventions.
Speaking of dynamics, this election cycle hasn't even begun to play out. It's just getting going. Two things about our media. (1) They have an emotional interest in seeing Donald Trump win the GOP nomination. They know that Trump himself is the best get-out-the-vote mechanism the Dems have. If Trump is the one, the Dems will set a record in voting turnout.
(2) The media spouts on about things that they know, things that have previously happened. There is not a visionary among them to see what might be coming, what is going on below the obvious surface of a slew of bad polling. (somehow they still use those polls to tell them what's going to happen.)
If Trump wins the GOP, the media/Dems win the Presidency and probably all of Congress. They will be reporting on the bad character of Trump at the same time they're reporting on how he's unstoppable, and how Nazi-like, unlikable, rude, and 'Christian' Ron DeSantis is. (they use 'Christian' as an epithet.) They want and need Trump to win.
If DeSantis gets the GOP slot, he'll win the Presidency and the GOP might take Congress in the movement. DeSantis's campaign will need to cut through the media blocking and making running lanes for Trump.
It's all clickbait and manipulation at this point.
May 29-31, 2015 CNN poll of Republicans and R-leaning independents:
Trump was favored by 3% of the respondents.
Ahead of Trump were Rubio (at 14%), Walker, Paul, Huckabee, Jeb!, Perry, Cruz, Christie; Pataki was also at 3%.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf
if only there was Some Way, for them to have (i don't know, maybe) a series of small votes (maybe one in each state) BEFORE choosing who the candidate should be. That way, the people could have a say.
These small votes could be the first thing in the process of choosing. They would before any secondary actions. I'm not sure what we'd call them though?
First votes?
Preliminaries?
Priming actions?
Primary votes?
i don't know what.. But it seems like it'd be a good idea
I’ll see Ron in CB on May 31st.
Pence isn’t in the race and will not. Scott has little appeal. It’s a three man race: Don, Ron and Vivek. It’s also a long race.
They are trying so hard to make fetch happen.
When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do
Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come true
Looks like the hack-D press and the corrupt democrat party will get the "R" candidate they want.
The thumbs are on the scales.
For Trump -this time.
Again - the left tell you who they are afraid of.
It's not Trump.
This is very simple. The 30% of republicans who strongly support Trump will not vote for ANY presidential candidate Trump doesn't endorse fully. Period. Therefore, the RNC's choices are to play for 2028, swallow hard and put their candidate in as the VP in a Trump/X ticket, or spend another four years as the minority party.
Unfortunately, the RNC's McPubs (McConnell, McDaniel and McCarthy) would be quite content to lead a minority party. They'll get paid to wait. And the DC establishment and bureaucracy would be delighted to have anyone but Trump as president. They've all thrived with Mr. Magoo in office.
This country WILL NOT survive another democrat presidency and more liberal economic and foreign policies. One may not like Trump, but the only positive way forward is to elect Trump/X in 2024 and elect Mr/Ms X in 2028.
17 months until the election.
8 months until the first primary. (Depending on what New Hampshire does with the DNC trying to have South Carolina first...)
I'm not sure how it will play out this time around. We should be looking to see if anyone is going to run in the Democratic primaries. If Biden faces a tough primary, I think it will hurt Trump's chances. Trump's best move is to play off the inevitability of his general election opponent as the fulcrum to attack his primary opponents. Like "X can't beat Sleepy Joe, because X blah blah blah..." This worked in 2015, and it would likely work again in 2023.
Perhaps something wonderful will come of this. For example, I could have an erroneously low opinion of the progressive coalition and its members. If that is so, their increased power after 2024 will make us a more wise, just, and prosperous nation. Long live democracy!
"It's a matter of math."
Right. It was in 2016 as well. So we are likely to get a replay in the primaries unless someone can clear the field.
But now the Trump opposition has solidified in the country as a whole, Hillary won't be running, Trump has a record of losing, and the electoral process itself is more blueish. What was a long shot in 2016 will be a death wish in 2024.
This is a two person race. Everyone else is running for Vice President
The plaintive cries begin: Will no one save us.
So much like last time, what else will be in the formulaic panic response? Oh right - lawfare.
Whomsoever is the chosen Republican candidate, will be treated to a double-dose of the same, tailored especially for him, because heaven forbid they should have the chance to speak.
"It's a relentless dynamic: The more opposition Trump gets, the more dominant he becomes."
Do you want to know why? It's because Trump, for all his faults, stripped away the veneer of false democracy that is politics and shown the corruption beneath. The people in the street were forced to the realization that they'd been lied to by our establishment government for many decades. People don't like being lied to. Especially the people we rely on to to provide our services and make our food and our stuff. They hate being taken advantage of. Probably because they work hard.
The platform, "I am not Trump" is crowded.
A clever and smart Trump will spend his time being Trump and criticizing Biden ... but not so much that the Dems nominate someone else.
A lot of wishful thinking going on at NYT. They are correct that there is a hard core of Trumpists who, at the moment, don't want to give up their attachment ( obsession). The other R factions may see light as time goes on. Certainly a lot depends on whether the "Trumpists" will face the reality that Trump probably can't win even against slow joe. I will stick with my prediction that Trump will self-destruct in a long contest with DeSantis (wishful thinking my part?).
I certainly would read the NY Times to learn all I could about the Republican Party.
Reverse psychology, perhaps. A reprisal against the progress of a fascist state, probably.
The NYT wants Trump so bad. Anyone other than DeSantis is an only-ran, and it's far far too early to be making these predictions anyway. Didn't they say Trump was a no-chance in 2015? Now he's virtually inevitable? Please. There's a tiny but loud online contingent that's ride-or-die, but everyone else is waiting to see.
A far bigger threat the media is studiously ignoring is a possible strong primary challenge to Biden. If he's forced to debate another Democrat it means that party is almost terminally fractured. What the GOP is doing right now is normal for the out-of-power party.
The wide Republican field in 2016 remained wide right through Super Tuesday. I think the GOP, if they have to, will do what the Democrats did for Biden in 2020- have everyone drop out at the same time and throw their public support to DeSantis before Super Tuesday.
I haven't really followed the primary rules in the GOP primaries closely since 2016, but if the GOP doesn't want Trump, they should eliminate all winner take all delegate states. I am not saying this is a good thing to do, but it would be the right strategy stop Trump from being the nominee.
All interpretations by the leftmediaswine lead to Trump. The Democrat hope is that he will be imprisoned leaving the Republicans in disarray. That may also be the hope of his primary opponents.
Crooked prosecutors may determine the fate of the nation.
The only polling that counts is the postelection count of votes to determine exactly how many more votes must be produced to verify the desired winner.
Not sure who the NYT is designating as the GOP pick?
I remember when late in 2015, Scott Walker entered the 2016 race only to die quickly because he hired DC GOP consultants who bled his campaign dry in weeks. We still need to see which of these announce candidates are hiring the old GOP grifters and will just end up with a broke campaign. The grifters are hungry because they didn't get fed in 2020.
Math matters.
At the end of July the two canidates with the highest support in the "Real Clear Politics Poll Averages", go head to head. It probably won't happen, but there should be a penalty for those who remain.
Good points. However Trump is not showing any inclination to campaign or mount a coherent communications strategy. Unlimited golf and undisciplined tweets attacking DeSantis from the left aren't going to win him the nomination. And he has yet to articulate a coherent vision for a second term. OTOH DeSantis has a disciplined campaign strategy and is executing it.
again without FL in his pocket [Q: who is the native son for FL?] does DeSantis have any hope in Electoral College calculations?
does he even get off square one!
Sure, because the NYT is renowned for truth and accuracy in reporting.
Curious how the anti-Trump MSM will do what they can to get him to be the nominee.
How do we know Trump has such a large base, just when a few are starting to enter the running? Are they putting out 'surveys' early to demonstrate Trump's lead to scare off any middle ground people? As in, it's either Trump or Biden, again?
The word "field" carries a connotation that in some neck of... areas has been associated with slavery, and been judged and labeled as diversitist ("racist"). ChatNYT should updates its style guidelines to empathize with semantic progress in diverse cultures.
Blogger hombre said...
All interpretations by the leftmediaswine lead to Trump. The Democrat hope is that he will be imprisoned leaving the Republicans in disarray. That may also be the hope of his primary opponents.
Crooked prosecutors may determine the fate of the nation.
Yes and they may well succeed.
I'm as confused about "deep state" Republicans as I am about the trans-gendered. From what I've read some of the trans-gendered have a working penis and are attracted to women. Apparently some "deep state" Republicans were part of Trump's cabinet and still want to fuck over Democrats. I don't see how DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo et al. qualify as "deep state" unless you define "deep state" as anyone who doesn't want Trump to win.
Blogger Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...
Looks like the hack-D press and the corrupt democrat party will get the "R" candidate they want.
Do you really believe Trump supporters / voters are influenced by the corrupt liberal media? Come on...
17 months until the election.
One front runner will be over 78 and the other days away from 82 on election day.
"Man plans. God laughs."
So wait just a minute.
The people who have been defending Trump since 2015 are now going to blame "the mainstream media" if Trump wins the nomination in 2024 and is defeated, again, by Biden in a general election... Have I got that right? It is "the mainstream media" that is putting Donald Trump on a glide path to the 2024 nomination?
You guys have a conspiracy theory for everything.
You have had a thousand opportunities to jettison Trump; and you haven't done it.
You have a thousand reasons to criticize and condemn Trump (dumb, loser, criminal, sociopath being just a few of the categories); and you haven't taken up any of them.
You've been warned, and instructed, and ridiculed for the cultish attachment between Trump and his low-information base; and despite the clear evidence that the Trump base isn't anything like an electoral majority, you haven't solved that problem.
What you guys need is several more electoral cycles of clear beatings at the polls. I'm not so sure that it will cure you, but it will be good for the country.
Everything Trump Touches, Dies. ETTD ™, ®, ©.
I'm not worried about this upcoming election, I'm sure the Chinese will get the President they want. If I thought it might be an open and fair election, then I might care. But not a chance in hell it will be.
I am struck by the phrase 'rapidly ballooning field.' Why not say 'rapidly expanding field'? Expanding would be the logical word to use. But the problem is expanding sounds too positive, and these are Republicans after all. Ballooning sounds negative and threatening, like a ballooning deficit. Also ballooning carries the sense of clownishness, at least to me.
The Donald will soon get his own version of woke. I doubt he will be the GOP nominee.
He's gotten away with name-calling because his rivals have let him. At some point DeSantis is going to call him out. The sooner the better.
If I was on Gov. DeSantis' messaging team... the next time Trump talks trash like he did with the Disney issue, I'd get him on the MSM and have him address the former President directly.
"Mr. President, most Americans believe in you. I believe in you. We willingly have given you our full support for years.
We have stood with you through good times and difficult times. I am in your debt for the critical boost you gave to my first campaign for Governor. The people of my state and your state are better off for that.
You accomplished much and pointed the way to even greater restoration of American greatness. But, frankly, Sir, you also squandered a lot. The country can't afford a rerun.
Basking in the love and enthusiasm of massive rallies would bring anyone great personal satisfaction. But it doesn't help you govern when it empowers you to talk nonsense and hurl infantile personal insults at the natural allies you need to help you keep your promises.
I am willing to meet at any time with President Trump or other rivals for the Republican nomination to explore issues and positions we may agree or disagree on. It's going to take all of us supporting our nominee to win in 2024."
Wake me up in August when Trump decides if he'll join the first debate.
Help me out here. Name *one* of the current non-Trump contenders who is *not* in the pocket of or the preferred candidate of the mega-donors and GOP establishment campaign grifters. In other words, besides Trump, who is not fronting for the GOP wing of the Uniparty? If DeSantis wants my vote, he needs to start acting like he will disregard his mega-donors and start articulating America First domestic and foreign policies.
While it's still early days, neither DeSantis not any of the other "contenders" have demonstrated they have weaned themselves off the establishment teat. What's the logic of supporting such a candidate who will do nothing for the average American if such a person actually won the presidency. For example, I don't believe such a "president" would secure the border(s) better than what we have today because his mega-donors are just as much in favor of open illegal migration for cheap labor as the Dems are for votes. The Who was right: "new boss same as the old boss". In contrast, Trump's policies demonstratively were based on what is best for Americans as a whole.
Going to have to wait for the primaries to see how things will shake out. Until then the pundits will speculate and people will take such vaporings seriously.
Two things nobody has mentioned:
Robert Kennedy I heard him described as a kamikaze candidate. He seems really pissed off about Uncle Jack. He blames JFK's death on the Cia. He blames a lot of other untoward stuff on them as well. He seems like he may be thinking "screw it, let's get all this dirty laundry out there.
He will also continue going after the drug and vaccine industry.
In 68 lbj had much better poll nbers than Brandon has. In 68 lbj got a majority and still quit the race.
Kennedy has been polling in the 20s for a while now and is not even campaigning. What happens when he gets cranked up? He is heir to one of the great family fortunes so funding is not a problem.
John LGKTQ Henry
Second, what is John Malone going to do? He is a huge Trump fan AND he controls CNN. He could have a lot of fun there.
Go back to middle of the road straight news. But also stories about Brandon like "Biden's dementia is fairly mild" or "the truth about whether Brandon sold his driveway twice" or "other politicians accepted a lot more bribes than Brandon.
In other words nibble him to death with faint praise.
John LGKTQ Henry
And what about Elon and the NYT? Is he really going to make the Sulzberger family an offer they can't refuse? A half billion or so would probably do it.
Carlos Slim will be the real problem. He owns a sizable chunk. What is the value of owning a mouthpiece to promote Mexican goals? Close to priceless. So he might not sell at any price.
Could Elon live with him as a minority shareholder in the "X interplanetary Times"?
John LGKTQ Henry
7:37 - Temujin.
That is precisely what is going on.
Gusty -
"Do you really believe Trump supporters / voters are influenced by the corrupt liberal media? Come on..."
Gusty Winds - Sorry I was not clear. What I meant was that the media are going to make sure Trump is as damaged as possible (already did that) and will also do all they can to promote his nomination. (in terms of polling - real or fake and probably fake)
Trump's supporters don't follow the media (in terms of allowing something like a PBS or and MSNBC to provide influence) Trump's supporters are loyal to Trump for various reasons... including the unfairness factor.
But in some regards - yes - the media are already easing up on Trump and going for the jugular on DeSantis. There is a reason.
In 2016, a lot of Republicans applauded Trump for defeating a bunch of establishment "GOPe" candidates for the nomination. I joined in the applause. But Trump was President for 4 years, and as President he DIDN'T perform up to expectations. In the biggest challenge of his term, the COVID "pandenmemic", he went along with the Fauci-ists. In 2020, he LOST to one of the weakest Presidential candidates in memory.
We can't afford a Democrat presidency, or a "Republican" presidency that is so concerned about challenges to the President's ego that it can't focus on policy.
If the consensus of the Althouse commenterati is that Trump wins the nomination and loses to Fill-in-the-blank dem, I know how I'm going to bet.
they do have an incomplete grasp of the obvious, desantis and trump are the top card, the rest like vivek and elder are in the next level and so on,
I am still distressed by the Trump attacks on DeSantis but I hope to see more serious policy proposals that do not look like Romney.
@Colonel Mustard. Great advice for DeSantis. I hope he takes it. He would be able to take away a large portion of Trumps base. Alternatively, getting in a pissing match with Trump is a loser.
JK Brown said... I remember when late in 2015, Scott Walker entered the 2016 race only to die quickly because he hired DC GOP consultants who bled his campaign dry in weeks.
Scott Walker led the Republican field from January through mid-July (when he officially announced). His campaign didn't die because he hired expensive consultants. It died because his poll numbers collapsed when he allowed a billionaire donor to publicly neuter him after he staked out an immigration policy that was more restrictionist than anything advocated by a GOP candidate since Pat Buchanan.
Mickey Kaus accurately summarized this back then:
- link 1
- link 2
Rusty said...
"It's a relentless dynamic: The more opposition Trump gets, the more dominant he becomes."
Do you want to know why? It's because Trump, for all his faults, stripped away the veneer of false democracy that is politics and shown the corruption beneath. The people in the street were forced to the realization that they'd been lied to by our establishment government for many decades. People don't like being lied to. Especially the people we rely on to to provide our services and make our food and our stuff. They hate being taken advantage of. Probably because they work hard.
5/29/23, 9:26 AM
THIS^^^
fairmarketvalue said...
Help me out here. Name *one* of the current non-Trump contenders who is *not* in the pocket of or the preferred candidate of the mega-donors and GOP establishment campaign grifters. In other words, besides Trump, who is not fronting for the GOP wing of the Uniparty? If DeSantis wants my vote, he needs to start acting like he will disregard his mega-donors and start articulating America First domestic and foreign policies.
While it's still early days, neither DeSantis not any of the other "contenders" have demonstrated they have weaned themselves off the establishment teat. What's the logic of supporting such a candidate who will do nothing for the average American if such a person actually won the presidency. For example, I don't believe such a "president" would secure the border(s) better than what we have today because his mega-donors are just as much in favor of open illegal migration for cheap labor as the Dems are for votes. The Who was right: "new boss same as the old boss". In contrast, Trump's policies demonstratively were based on what is best for Americans as a whole.
5/29/23, 4:15 PM
AND 100% THIS^^^^^
Michael K said...
"I am still distressed by the Trump attacks on DeSantis but I hope to see more serious policy proposals that do not look like Romney."
Trumps a street fighter. Ya talk shit until somebody throws a punch. Then you wade in. I know that guy.
Trump's tired name calling is - 10 year old boy. And I suspect most 10 year old boys are not that immature.
Most of Trump's former donors are going to DeSantis.
Trump supporters and Trump whine in unison. dirty money! --y'all sound like democrats.
Again - Temujin gets it.
"If Trump wins the GOP, the media/Dems win the Presidency and probably all of Congress. They will be reporting on the bad character of Trump at the same time they're reporting on how he's unstoppable, and how Nazi-like, unlikable, rude, and 'Christian' Ron DeSantis is. (they use 'Christian' as an epithet.) They want and need Trump to win.
If DeSantis gets the GOP slot, he'll win the Presidency and the GOP might take Congress in the movement. DeSantis's campaign will need to cut through the media blocking and making running lanes for Trump."
Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...
"Trump's tired name calling is - 10 year old boy. And I suspect most 10 year old boys are not that immature."
You listen to what people say. The measure of a man is what he does. His policies for this country were very adult.
Rusty - Trump did some good things. But he squandered much of it. He assumed he would be loved and adored by everyone. He didn't drain the swamp.
Carter can't win the nomination. Clinton can't win the nomination. GWB can't win the nomination. Trump can't win the nomination. Heard all those things.
Hunter Biden's Hooker said:
"Rusty - Trump did some good things. But he squandered much of it. He assumed he would be loved and adored by everyone. He didn't drain the swamp."
Look, I know you're a strong DeSantis supporter, but would you at least agree that with the Democrats, "Cocaine Mitch" McConnell, Paul "RINO" Ryan, the entire GOP establishment AND the Intelligence Community and Administrative State arrayed against Trump from the get-go, Jesus Christ himself wouldn't have been able to drain the swamp.
I don't dislike DeSantis or what he's accomplished as governor, but I fail to see how anyone who is so beholden to GOPe mega-donors will "drain the swamp". Please explain how DeSantis will do so (unless he will do so by screwing said donors by breaking the vows he needed to make to hoover up his tidy warchest.
Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...
"Rusty - Trump did some good things. But he squandered much of it."
My perception is that he was prevented from doing a lot of things.
Either one could panic the Dems were Condi Rice to join the ticket.
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