Writes Ed Kilgore in "Kevin McCarthy May Have Already Won the Debt-Limit Fight" (NY Magazine).
२४ मे, २०२३
"Now and through November 2024, Republicans will be able to say that Biden has 'admitted' he allowed too much spending, which of course they blame for every conceivable economic ill."
"And if inflation subsides and a recession does not appear, Republicans will take credit for that via the debt-limit deal they 'forced' Biden and the shadowy Marxists who control him to accept. It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
Writes Ed Kilgore in "Kevin McCarthy May Have Already Won the Debt-Limit Fight" (NY Magazine).
Writes Ed Kilgore in "Kevin McCarthy May Have Already Won the Debt-Limit Fight" (NY Magazine).
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"shadowy Marxists"
What is this dude smoking? "Shadowy"?
They're in plain effing sight. Anyone who chooses to take off their Biden-blinders can see them with their own eyes, you don't even need They Live glasses or nothing. Give it a try.
The very fact that this guy is writing articles like this is an indication that Biden has lost.
Progressive prices (PP).
"It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
You have to give these people credit. The bullshit these liberals write never ends. Complete fairy tale fabrications.
Notice the construction: If you don't favor the left's policy prescriptions, then you are automatically "perpetually angry and conflict-savoring."
Ed Kilgore can fk all the way off. That's some Communist Chinese level propaganda.
It's the new "Basket of Deplorables."
"...perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base" may be a fair criticism. But as usual, he does not even notice his own perpetually angry and conflict-savoring base. Having been a student radical in the 1960s and 70s and a conservative/libertarian/the-hell-with-ya-all now, I can assure him that we didn't start the fire on that.
Let's see, what comes next..... Will the Democrats now start shrieking about 'spending cuts' and the catastrophic end to the entitlement society, cuts across the board, resulting in total disasters for the children, the old, the infirm? And yet, their 'cuts' will somehow result in budget category numbers that are still healthily higher than last year - because their definition of 'cut' is a decreased rate of increase, presented as a direct, draconian reduction? Yes. Been here before, haven't we?
Here's hoping!
My favorite part of the debate so far has been Bernie Sanders claiming that not one nickel of Federal spending can be cut after we spent $100 billion to fight a war on Russia's border over who gets to govern territory that has been Russian speaking for centuries.
Also it's interesting how centuries of the knowledge that overspending creates inflation, in a world replete with examples demonstrating it, is somehow a shadowy conspiracy theory. The Republicans predicted that the trillions of stimulus spending would set off a round of inflation, but we al know that they were lying and the inflation we are seeing is due to something else, probably due to the Republicans not allowing enough spending.
Joe Biden has drained more than half of our Strategic Petroleum Reserves to keep inflation under control, while prosecuting a war against a huge producer of energy consumed by the west, and while provoking Iran in the Persian Gulf, as if our navy could keep the Persian Gulf open if the "Persians," that would be Iran, decide to shut it down. What happens if the shit hits the fan? Remember when Trump tried to top off the SPR at $25 a barrel and the Democrats in Congress prevented him doing so because it was a "sop to the oil industry"?
All we get from the MSM is propaganda and they simply withhold uncomfortable facts.
About half of the recent bout of inflation was caused by Biden's massive, totally unnecessary stimulus. But there were supply shocks that the Biden Administration is not responsible for. Covid and natural disasters raised raised production costs. And high oil prices due to the Ukraine War reduced overall supply and led to “cost-push” inflation as well. (Maybe Buttigieg's tremendous incompetence disrupted transportation networks? Remember the rage that truckers and dock workers expressed when they were told to get vaccinated or the "stay the 'F' home"? Or how about how Buttigieg went AWOL when rail workers threatened to strike?)
Overall I think the Republicans are right. We need to reduce spending and increase taxes as long as the economy is overheated. But there is no justification for defaulting on the national debt. So these jokers should cool it.
Inflation came from shortages with prices rationing the allocation of goods.
Businesses closing came from Biden raising penalties and reducing incentives.
It's not the spending as such. It's monetizing the additional debt through the Fed. They could spend the money if they raised it in taxes, or bid for it in the bond market (without "quantitative easing"). But they can't/won't because then the harm would be obvious - soaring taxes or interest rates. This way they can get the political benefit now and put off the consequences until manana. But unlike in the song, manana does come. (No tilde on my keyboard.)
Defaulting on the debt is a choice entirely in the control of the Biden Administration, and it is, in fact, illegal for them to choose to do so regardless of whether or not the debt limit is raised.
Was it ever easier to play "switch the party labels and see how the story changes"?
The deficit is a thoroughly bipartisan affair--Reagan ran against Carter's deficit spending and went on to blow it up. The Clinton gridlock kept it from getting worse for a few years (but the advertised "surplus" was a fantasy), and every president since then has gone wild with spending, breaking the records set by their predecessor.
All this nonsense about who gets credit while nobody wants to seriously tackle it anyway is part of the problem. Cowardice is the real problem--cowardice by politicians, but also cowardice by the public, which demands austerity, but only for somebody else's programs. Never their own.
The thing is, Biden and the Democratic majority in Congress did spend too much, which did spur inflation. If inflation subsides, it will be due to spending restraint, which Republicans ought to take credit for, since, to the extent they succeed, it will be over the vociferous opposition of the Democrats.
But somehow, Republicans bad, Republicans unfair.
The cost of 5-7 million illegal entrants alone is destroying our way of life.
REPUBLICANS POUNCE!!!
Liberals already changed the definition of recession. Two quarters of negative GDP. So even if we experience that again they will just claim it's not a recession, and liberal PHDs will bend over backwards to defend it.
Inflation will not subside. And the price increases for basic necessities that Americans have absorbed are here to stay. Just go grocery shopping or look at you electric and gas bill.
Of course it will try to be hidden. Lawn Fertilizer for example always came in 5,000 square foot bags, and 15,000 square foot bags. Starting last year at Costco the price remained the same, but the large bags are now 14,000 square feet.
In the 4th Quarter of 2019, the federal government spent at the annual rate of $4.8 trillion dollars. In the 1st quarter of this year, 2023, it spent at the annual rate of $6.44 trillion dollars. That is an increase of 34% in just 3 1/4 years. If you go back 3 1/4 years to the 3rd quarter of 2016, that increase over those 3 1/4 years is just 16%.
That is what a lot of this battle is about- the Biden Administration wants to lock in that rate of spending increase, the Republicans want to lock less of it, but more than that old rate of increase, which was already high.
We are going bankrupt, slowly, then faster.
Ooo, MAGA.
That's some really scary stuff.*
*Best read in the voice of Count Floyd
Democrat hacks in the obedient and loyal democrat party press do not understand economics.
"And if inflation subsides and a recession does not appear"...
Oh, sadly, I doubt that will happen. We already have inflation and a recession. A Jimmy Carter 'stagflation'.
“Hard times create strong men,
strong men create good times,
good times create weak men,
and weak men create hard times.” <---- you are here
And HARDER times are coming.
This Kilgore fellow has a lively imagination but relies too much on hyperbole and the highly malleable MAGA! dog whistle. I’m not sure what democrat dogs hear when he blows it, but why else employ a word that requires him to pause his writing cross his heart and spit to the side when he could just choose a nice original way of smearing and fear-mongering?
How did the UK pound lose its status as a reserve currency?
The US became an industrial power, and people began to hold dollars to buy US exports, even though the dollar was not convertible to other currencies at the time, and the value of the dollar was pegged. Eventually all of these dollars held overseas created a demand, of their own critical mass, to find ways to make the dollar convertible, and so it was done. The British also became careless of the value of the Pound.
Tell me that this can't happen again. Right now Russia is holding a lot of Rupees an YMB they accepted in payment for their oil. The Saudis are going to start accepting these currencies as well, and one day the dam will break and ways will be found to make these currencies convertible. Perhaps Russia and China will invest in Indian industry to create exports of higher value than tea and rice and trinkets, and buy them with the Rupee, who knows? We have certainly provided them with strong incentives and harsh penalties for not doing so.
What I do know is that it won't take a lot of undermining of the US petrodollar for it to show up in real problems with our budget, as overseas demand for the dollar drops. Most of the debt has been financed at what are now unsustainable low interest rates. What happens to a homeowner with a variable rate mortgage when rates rise to the point where his mortgage is no longer affordable? Do we just print money? Then inflation will increase further and rates will rise more. At some point a swimming survivor of a shipwreck at sea will as soon grab an old board floating, as he will the fancy lifeboat, that BTW, has capsized and is not barely floating, hull up. We can't count on the dollar as a "safe haven" forever, especially when we are using the dollar as a weapon of war, and other countries are starting to wonder "who's next?"
I am sure that gadfly can explain why printing money doesn't cause inflation, and using the dollar as a weapon against enemies who outproduce us in commodities and out-manufacture us will never come back to bite us.
This is a despicable view. We are accumulating debt at an unsustainable rate, but for Ed Kilgore what matters is defeating "MAGA".
Blogger Spiros said...
About half of the recent bout of inflation was caused by Biden's massive, totally unnecessary stimulus. But there were supply shocks that the Biden Administration is not responsible for.
Democrats and Joe Biden are 100% responsible for the "supply shocks" as a result of their COVID lies. The lock downs were unnecessary, but were pushed for 2020 political purposes only. Essential vs non-essential was all a lie. Illinois marijuana dispensaries were kept open and deemed "essential". What a joke. The entire point was to cause pain, and Democrats were successful.
Nobody is going to default on the National debt. They always play this game of chicken up until the last minute. There is absolutely NO REASON to raise taxes. Tax increases have proven to further slow the economy, resulting in decreased revenue.
The vilified Trump tax cuts created record revenues for the Feds.
Starting to feel like we're going to hit the debt ceiling.
And high oil prices due to the Ukraine War reduced overall supply and led to “cost-push” inflation as well.
Somebody swallowed the Biden lie with enjoyment. Threatening oil production and the financing of it had a serious effect. Russia-Ukraine did not. That mostly enriched politicians.
Ah yes, the good old "Republicans Pounce!" meme.
The tax revenue currently collected by the IRS will more than cover all debt obligations for the coming fiscal year. There will be not a single debt which is not paid timely.
What there will be if "default" occurs, if the debt limit is not increased, is potential failure of payments to entitlements and other government programs. Part of me wants to see how the DC idiots who spend more than they have in hand every year handle the blowback from that.
Notice the lack of arguments about why the Republicans are wrong? It's all ad hominin and moaning about how this will hurt Democrats and the Left politically.
If the Ed Kilgores can frame the conflict as MAGA versus non-MAGA, they will win.
The lefts grasp of economics is chimp-like. Just-ugh. Can't -ugh. Get this goddamn banana-ugh. Outta-ugh. This gaddamn jar-ugh.
Covid and natural disasters raised raised production costs.
I'll give you that the response to COVID raised production costs. And what natural disasters? (That's a real question, not snark: I truly don't remember any disasters that had a long-term effect on drilling, transport, or refining.)
[T]here is no justification for defaulting on the national debt.
But that's not what raising the debt ceiling is about. We CAN currently service the debt. We CAN currently continue payouts for existing programs. Raising the debt ceiling is about NEW spending, not about "defaulting on the national debt." But Democrats want us all to believe that that's what Republicans want: for the country to become a deadbeat.
tim in vermont said...
"Also it's interesting how centuries of the knowledge that overspending creates inflation, in a world replete with examples demonstrating it, is somehow a shadowy conspiracy theory."
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become popular among our political class precisely because it allows them to ignore that inconvenient truth.
For people who follow the news and in reality, Biden lost months ago. This article is not an admission of Biden's failure, but an admission of the media's failure to be able to cover it up.
"And above all, by forcing Biden to the table, McCarthy will have preserved.." the constitutional principle that the power of the purse belongs to the House. - FIFY
These chucklehead created most all these "economic ills" spending that would embarrass a Drunken Sailor. So...
Spiros said...
"...Overall I think the Republicans are right. We need to reduce spending and increase taxes as long as the economy is overheated. But there is no justification for defaulting on the national debt."
Our spending is unsustainable. The difference between revenues and outlays is $1.5 trillion. The entire federal budget in 1996 was $1.45 trillion.
And servicing the debt is more unsustainable. The payments just for the interest owed is $640 billion. In 1983, the total federal budget was $600 billion.
And additional taxes never seem to hit their expected revenue targets. Some economists have argued that the maximum tax-to-GDP ratio before additional taxes start to suppress the economy is around 18-20%. We are currently at 26.6% (although the percentage has briefly been higher in the recent past).
”It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
We’d be a lot less angry if you assholes would stop deliberately pissing us off. There’d be a lot fewer conflicts if stop picking fights.
“It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base…”
The absolute huge balls of Ed Kilgore are made of 100% pure projection.
- Rafe
Anticipating "The Pounce."
It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
The Left has been calling others "angry" since "the Angry White Males" who had the nerve to elect a GOP House in 1994 for the first time in 40 years. (The "White" part adds a little racism for flavor.)
I don't think it works 30 years later when you're saying it in front of buildings still scarred from the regular burning and looting of your voting base.
Covid and natural disasters raised raised production costs.
Almost right. It was the insane overreaction to COVID-19 that raised production costs.
And high oil prices due to the Ukraine War reduced overall supply and led to “cost-push” inflation as well.
At the time Biden took office we were an oil exporter.
(Maybe Buttigieg's tremendous incompetence disrupted transportation networks? Remember the rage that truckers and dock workers expressed when they were told to get vaccinated or the "stay the 'F' home"? Or how about how Buttigieg went AWOL when rail workers threatened to strike?)
Ain’t no “maybe” about it. And it’s a mark of Biden’s incompetence and lack of concern for the ordinary people of the United States that he hasn’t replaced the man.
Tom T.: "The very fact that this guy is writing articles like this is an indication that Biden has lost."
This^^^^^^^
The author sure comes off as perpetually angry and confict-savoring.
"Republicans will be able to say"
Republicans will take credit"
- Ed Kilgore, psychic
Our present inflation is primarily the result of a negative nominal interest rate for 15 years. That is the primary driver. We pumped up the entire world. Now we've stopped the pumping, the world is starting to get cold digits and limbs, as the chill works its way back toward the U.S. heart.
The icing on the cake was the COVID supply chain disruptions, and the post-COVID spending during late Trump/Biden regimes.
Brush off your understanding of the word Stagflation, because it is a real possibility - a stagnant economy but inflation still roaring.
Itself pretty obvious most folks have no clue what the debt ceiling is.Time for some basic government 101 courses to the clueless! Courses available at Gov.com sign up.
The side that’s says they won the debt limit fight will be the one that lost it. If it’s a win-win deal, which is what one should expect from a negotiation like this, both sides will claim defeat.
Biden wants the debt ceiling raised so they can continue to write off students loans, to pander to their fascist base. Imagine that- the government wants to borrow more money to payoff other people's loans which the government sold to those people to fund their left-wing indoctrination apparatus. Funny how that money gets laundered back to the Democrats in the end. There is no end to the perfidy of the left.
Biden just to send out a Covid check with his name on it, just because Trump had done it, and if Biden couldn’t undo whatever Trump did, he had to do it, supposedly better.
Not raising the debt limit is not defaulting just like your credit card not raising your limit doesn’t mean you don’t owe what you already borrowed on the card. Tired of the lies about this all over the media.
Tim -
Can you at least agree that the government of Iran desperately wants Russia to win the war? I've heard some leaders of the demonstrations in Iran say that a Ukrainian victory will likely lead to the toppling of the Ianian regime. Are they full of shit Tim?
“….perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
I feel personally attacked on behalf of Althouse commentators.
Seems like karma for naming a spending bill the Inflation Reduction Act.
Blogger Aggie said...
Let's see, what comes next..... Will the Democrats now start shrieking about 'spending cuts' and the catastrophic end to the entitlement society, cuts across the board, resulting in total disasters for the children, the old, the infirm? And yet, their 'cuts' will somehow result in budget category numbers that are still healthily higher than last year - because their definition of 'cut' is a decreased rate of increase, presented as a direct, draconian reduction? Yes. Been here before, haven't we?
5/24/23, 8:36 AM
Perfectly stated. They increase spending by $billions and call it a cut because the final number is a small % lower than the original proposed number. And it's always for "the chirren." These people love "the chirren" so much they want to groom them for the pedophiles among them and cut off the girls' budding breasts and de-nut the boys.
Lamest. Ed McMahon commercial. Ever.
Wild overspending by the Federal government may not be responsible for "...every conceivable ill" but it sure has caused a great many.
”It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
They'll always call you angry
But they'll never answer why
They'll say you savor conflict
But the cause? they're rather shy...
They can't attack your reasons
Because they know they're justified
jim5301: "I've heard some leaders of the demonstrations in Iran say that a Ukrainian victory will likely lead to the toppling of the Ianian regime. Are they full of shit Tim?"
- Which "leaders"?
- Define "Ukrainian victory" conditions.
- Why would a Ukrainian "victory" as defined in the previous question "likely lead to the toppling of the Iranian regime"? Show us the projected cause and effect argument you weirdly think you or these "leaders" are making.
- Yes, I think these Iranian "leaders" are full of s*** on this point, though I dont blame them for wishcasting while they confront the Iranian govt AND saying things publicly the corrupted and decrepit and failure-filled Biden/neocon govt want them to say.
There could be some real cash and resources in the offing for these "leaders" by doing so.
"...perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
Sounds like Mister Ed thinks permanent revolution is the future. I say amen. Down with the elites! Workers of the world, unite, baby! So why does Kilgore think this is a bad thing? ...wait... I get it. He thinks he's about to be socially demoted by the dawning class struggle. Well, the DEI staffing policy at NY Magazine that keeps him crowing from atop the coastal elite dunghill, doesn't include any coal miner's daughters, so up against the wall, motherf*ckers!
There's more wasteful spending than anything.
They are all drunk on it. These a-holes do not care about the American people. The Hack-D press especially do not care about the American people. They care about The mob bosses and making the king pins happy... with their democrat party loyalty and obedience.
"It’s fine red meat for the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base."
I don't understand why Ed Kilgore thinks we're angry. Somebody must have told him we want to cut his balls off and make him wear lipstick and a miniskirt. Ed, we just want to affirm your gender!
Does anybody still fall for this crap?
Kilgore was here… and we’re worse off for it.
Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...
"There's more wasteful spending than anything."
A few years ago somebody said, "You could cut federal spending by ten percent and the American taxpayer would never notice."
There is a lot of graft that could be shed that would go a long way to balance the budget. But that would take people in office that don't have their hands out.
Blogger DINKY DAU 45 said...
Itself pretty obvious most folks have no clue what the debt ceiling is.Time for some basic government 101 courses to the clueless! Courses available at Gov.com sign up.
I doubt anything at Gov.com would be any different from the Marxists who wrote the "Inflation Reduction Act." Total economic illiteracy.
Once again this year, as we have been doing for decades, we will borrow money from China so we can give China direct foreign aid.
I don't know why whatever opposition spokespeople say in Iran has to do with the fact that Joe Biden has pretty much emptied the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when we are in a proxy war with a country which supplies 11% of the world's oil, and are picking fights with both China and Iran, Iran which can choke off the Strait of Hormuz and send oil north of $200 a barrel. Who are we going to go to to save us? Russia? Biden has killed Keystone and has dried up finance for American drilling due to climate. We are exposed, and this is because Joe Biden wants cheap gas prices, because high gas prices hurts his approval.
For those wondering, the SPR is not at an all time low yet: Biden still has another 80MM barrels to drain before the salt caverns collapse - ZeroHedge
Republican cats.
Whatever result occurs in Congress with regard to the debt ceiling, all Biden needs to do is declare any vote, or lack thereof, that occurs to comply with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 to be unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment which spells out that "the validity of the public debt of the United States...shall not be questioned."
The GOP can go to court but borrowing cannot be impaired unless and until the Supreme Court rules against the clearly written amendment.
It is indeed strange that the $7.8 trillion increase (a record for 4 years) in the national debt under Trump was never questioned by either party. Let's stop the useless political rants over this non-problem and work on base problems like the out-of-control military-industrial complex where competitors among military suppliers have disappeared. Contract cost overruns are common and repairs are astronomically priced because only the contractors can do the repairs.
Tim of Vermont:
The Strategic Oil Reserve was established before we knew that we were sitting atop the world's largest oil reserves - back when we thought we were going to run out of oil in wartime. The stuff we have stored in the salt is not the light sweet crude that we process in our refineries - so we end up selling the cruddy stuff overseas.
So let's empty the stupid SOR sites and let the caverns collapse. There are plenty of other salt caverns that can be used in the future if needed for other purposes.
As for Iranian oil, we don't need it, don't buy it. Our problem is world-based oil prices that are constantly boosted by the Saudi cartel. Then, of course, there is the Russian oil problem.
Regarding "the perpetually angry and conflict-savoring MAGA base," I'd wager that many, if not most, just want to be left alone, without feeling that everything under the sun has to be politicized.
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