Althouse: Here's a place to talk about the primary results in Wisconsin.

९ ऑगस्ट, २०२२

Here's a place to talk about the primary results in Wisconsin.

I'm watching the results at the NYT (of all places).

२८ टिप्पण्या:

Birches म्हणाले...: People's Pundit says Michels has the win.; ९/८/२२, ८:५३ PM
Mark म्हणाले...: Michaels vs Kleefisch seems the only really big race that is close tonight. Barnes is running away with it and is no surprise ending up as RoJo's competition.

That will be a weird race that a lot of money will be spent on. Glad we haven't had cable in years and don't watch sports, we can avoid everything except the the signs.

Will be interesting to see who wins/loses down ballot en masse, but not tied to any of those races enough to care.

Bet that raid last night helped the Trump endorsed candidates.; ९/८/२२, ९:०५ PM
Lem Vibe Bandit म्हणाले...: One exit poll question we would definitely hear tonight from the Cheesehead quarters (If Trump had raided the Obamas) "Did the raid have any impact on your vote?".

As it was not Saint Obama that was raided, the Trump raid, I'm afraid, is the presidential version of the Will Smith slap of Chris Rock. Its already memory holed.; ९/८/२२, ९:०९ PM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: All those rural counties remaining, and Michels is winning there, so I think his lead will broaden and he'll win decisively. The urban counties have reported 95% and those are the places where Kleefisch is winning.

I'm not listening to any commentary. Just looking at the numbers flowing in.; ९/८/२२, ९:१० PM
wildswan म्हणाले...: I was going to vote for Kleefisch, remembering all she went through back in the day, till she and her group recently insulted Trump and his supporters. Guess they don't want my vote but I don't know why Walker, Ryan and the rest don't close up the schism.; ९/८/२२, ९:११ PM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: Michels is the Trump pick. At the rally last week, he sounded Trump-like as he addressed the crowd, a crowd of Trump supporters.; ९/८/२२, ९:१२ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Mandela Barnes clinched it when he vowed to eject Scott Walker from the Senate.
I mean, no one else went out on that limb.
Bold.; ९/८/२२, ९:३९ PM
Godot म्हणाले...: Ann Althouse said...

"At the rally last week, he sounded Trump-like as he addressed the crowd, a crowd of Trump supporters"

Fake news!; ९/८/२२, ९:५१ PM
Greg The Class Traitor म्हणाले...: Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary:
Votes in: Estimated 67%
Votes counted: 455,006

Wisconsin Governor Democrat Primary:
Votes in: Estimated 63%
Votes counted: 282,673

One would expect that a contested Dem Senate race would get Dem voters out

I expect Dems to get absolutely crushed in November in WI; ९/८/२२, ९:५६ PM
walter म्हणाले...: Rich Baris "The People's Pundit"
@Peoples_Pundit
·
16m
Hey @Mike_Pence
, I just want you to know that you and @NikkiHaley
killed @RebeccaforReal
and her future career.

Ultimately, the candidate is responsible for these bad decisions. She can't be blameless.

But Rebecca is not the person they made her. Honestly, Klee, you screwed up.; ९/८/२२, ९:५८ PM
chickelit म्हणाले...: Will be interesting to see who wins/loses down ballot en masse, but not tied to any of those races enough to care.

This is is typical Democratic attitude and it’s a mistake. The attitude is that it only matters who’s at the very top. Never mind who might be in a position to pass legislation to restore abortion rights— it only matters who gets to name SCOTUS picks. So in WI for example, Progressives are gleeful that they picked a guy to take on Ron Johnson but who will stand no chance in the general election in the fall. I blame Obama for instilling this attitude that politics all a one size fits all, top down thing and that only the big races are important.; ९/८/२२, १०:०७ PM
Mutaman म्हणाले...: "The strangest thing about this epoch of American history will always be that tens of millions of grown ups decided to form a cult like devotion to, of all available people, Donald Trump.

Americans have an unnatural devotion to celebrity see for example the kardashians"; ९/८/२२, १०:१० PM
Inga म्हणाले...: The more Trump- like Michels is the more likely he’ll lose in Nov. so his win tonight is a good thing, IMO.; ९/८/२२, १०:२६ PM
chickelit म्हणाले...: Another example of small results mattering: In my district, Van Orden is winning decisively. He is likely going to DC next year and will represent opposition to the Biden regime.; ९/८/२२, १०:२९ PM
Inga म्हणाले...: And as for Robin Vos’ win, Trump will be unhappy about that one. How many more times will Trump pressure him to overturn the 2020 election?; ९/८/२२, १०:३० PM
Original Mike म्हणाले...: "All those rural counties remaining, and Michels is winning there, so I think his lead will broaden and he'll win decisively. The urban counties have reported 95% and those are the places where Kleefisch is winning."

Why can the urban centers report first during the primaries, but in the general they drag their feet?; ९/८/२२, १०:५१ PM
Mark म्हणाले...: Robin Vos had a tighter race than Mochaels and Kleefisch, wow.

He signed off on the million dollars for the comical 2020 election probe and his court losses must have hurt him.

Wasted a million or more and won't stand behind the findings. He deserved a loss.; ९/८/२२, ११:१४ PM
Gusty Winds म्हणाले...: The Mike Pence endorsement is what doomed Rebecca tonight. She’s a good person and I would have voted for her in the general election had she won. But Mike Pence betrayed us all. I was going to vote for her in the primary until I saw the photo of her with Pence. Walker got her the Pence endorsement. Big mistake.

Mike Pence is going to learn exactly how dead his political career is this year, and in 2024.; ९/८/२२, ११:२२ PM
Ann Althouse म्हणाले...: "One would expect that a contested Dem Senate race would get Dem voters out. I expect Dems to get absolutely crushed in November in WI"

Key fact: The Democratic races were not in question and anyone could vote on the Republican side if they chose. You can crossover whenever you want. But I don't know which WAY Dems would vote? I think they'd prefer Kleefisch. It would be dumb to assume Michels isn't likely to win or will be weaker than Kleefisch against Evers.; १०/८/२२, ५:१२ AM
Alexisa म्हणाले...: "The strangest thing about this epoch of American history will always be that tens of millions of grown ups decided to form a cult like devotion to, of all available people, Donald Trump."

No, it won't be the strangest thing, even if it were true (which it's not, as you misunderstand why we support Trump.

No. The strangest thing will be the millions on Democrats who will stare down at their shoelaces as the civil rights of their fellow countrymen are violated.

Frau Althouse will host dinner parties where the guests pretend not to know what happens down the road at Dachau.; १०/८/२२, ६:१३ AM
chickelit म्हणाले...: Why can the urban centers first during the primaries, but in the general they drag their feet?

I think we know why that is always true.; १०/८/२२, ६:२२ AM
Tina Trent म्हणाले...: Kleefish has learned a valuable lesson: rioters don't get out of bed early enough to vote.

We are sick of government-endorsed anarchy posing as principled libertarianism, as it were.; १०/८/२२, ८:११ AM
Drago म्हणाले...: Inga: "The more Trump- like Michels is the more likely he’ll lose in Nov. so his win tonight is a good thing, IMO."

Yes, lots of dumb people believe things like that.

Of course, if Michels wants to get more Inga's to give him the "completely normal guy" vote, he'll start showering with his daughters and make sure his sons get some "quality time" with underage hookers and crack cocaine.; १०/८/२२, ९:३२ AM
Drago म्हणाले...: The GOPe-ers still haven't learned anything. At all.

Scott Walker was potentially a real competitor in 2016 heading into the republican nomination process.

And then he hired on all the typical DC "consultants" who can show you how to be the very next Mitt Romney.

Prominent amongst those "quality" hires: George Will's wife!!! LOL

Of course, you will recall that as soon as that 2016 campaign started, Walker disappeared. Literally. Figuratively. Policy-wise. He wasn't even a blip.

So Kleefisch clings to Walker for his endorsement.....and then Mike Pence!!

It's too bad. She had potential. She might be able to recover for a future state-wide run, but on the national level, she's gone Nikki Haley. To Nikki's credit, Nikki now seems to realize just how badly she has screwed up. But the damage is done.; १०/८/२२, ९:३७ AM
mezzrow म्हणाले...: "It would be dumb to assume Michels isn't likely to win or will be weaker than Kleefisch against Evers."

That's exactly how we got to where we are today. It's exactly the same dumb thing that the MSM/DNC junta thought in 2015. They thought the only guy that couldn't beat Hillary was Trump. It shows the degree to which they misunderstand America, human nature, and the world at large. And here they are again, doing the same kind of stupid shit.

We are at their mercy, and they have none. I pray that they develop more wisdom since they are pretty much completely in charge of our world, but my prayers show no perceptible response at this time.; १०/८/२२, १०:०१ AM
Drago म्हणाले...: mezzrow: "That's exactly how we got to where we are today. It's exactly the same dumb thing that the MSM/DNC junta thought in 2015. They thought the only guy that couldn't beat Hillary was Trump."

Jimmy Carter's staff famously came to the conclusion that Reagan would be easier to beat than HWBush.

This is a pattern on the part of self-styled "genius elites" democraticals.; १०/८/२२, १०:५८ AM
Greg The Class Traitor म्हणाले...: Ann Althouse said...
"One would expect that a contested Dem Senate race would get Dem voters out. I expect Dems to get absolutely crushed in November in WI"

Key fact: The Democratic races were not in question and anyone could vote on the Republican side if they chose. You can crossover whenever you want. But I don't know which WAY Dems would vote? I think they'd prefer Kleefisch. It would be dumb to assume Michels isn't likely to win or will be weaker than Kleefisch against Evers.

In 2018 "The Democratic races were not in question" either. This is the Fall primary, where Evers got 42% of the vote, #2 had 16%, and #3 had 13%
https://elections.wi.gov/election-result/2018-fall-partisan-primary-results
The only close race on the Dem side was State Treasurer, where Sarah G got 43% Dawn S got 32% and Cynthia K got 24%

This year the Dems had a race for US Senate, and the GOP had a race for Governor. The change from 2018:

D18->D22: +10k votes
R18->R22: + over 200k votes

It would be interesting to track voters,a nd see which Party's Primary they voted in in 2018 vs 2022. But that information does not appear to be available.

However, I have downloaded the Ward by Ward Report for the 2018 Gov Primary, and the 2018 General. Once the 2022 Primary numbers come out, I'll download them.

The for each Ward in 2018 I'll get total number of Dem and GOP votes. I'll use the votes in the General to rank the words as more or less GOP
For 2022 I'll get the total Dem and GOP votes, and votes for Kleefish & Michels. Then I'll look for where the vote total changes area and if they helped Kleefish or Michaels.

So if some Ward had 100 D votes and 20 R votes in the 2018 Primary, and 50 D votes and 80 R votes in 2022, that would indicate voters going to where the battle is. If the Ward voted strong D in the General, that would indicate Dems switching for partisan purposes.

It will be a fun analysis. Thank you for challenging me on this :-); १०/८/२२, ६:०४ PM
Greg The Class Traitor म्हणाले...: Well, we have the County by County numbers out, but not the Ward by Ward. :-(; १/९/२२, ८:३९ AM