November 24, 2020
"Spring will come. There will be teachers again with eyes on kids and in-person social workers and doctors and librarians."
"They will help do the job of paying attention, of answering questions. There will be a vaccine. This period, like a war, will end. And like a war, its effects will linger, too. Children will tell their children about what it was like to grow up now, in the year of no school, no parties, no playdates, no kissing. Kids are resilient. It is possible to reverse the destructive effects of toxic stress on the developing brain. Astonishing research on child soldiers in Sierra Leone has shown that even after years of conscription, forced participation in murder and rape, half of kids mostly recover. Structure and routine help... 'I keep telling parents, "One week at a time. Wednesday we’re having pizza. Every day we’re going to put on clothes, not stay in our pajamas,"' said Harold Koplewicz, director of the Child Mind Institute in New York. 'You have to try to model calm, and when you’re not feeling calm, you say it: "I’m feeling stressed right now. I’m going to read a book. I’m going to sit with my thoughts. I’m going to walk outside or do jumping jacks."'"
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128 comments:
Astonishing research on child soldiers in Sierra Leone has shown that even after years of conscription, forced participation in murder and rape, half of kids mostly recover.
I can’t get over this sentence.
Public schools suck. If they were better, the pandemic would not have hit them so hard. They were like the house of straw when the Big Bad Wolf came along.
half of kids mostly recover.
What about the other half? What does "mostly" mean in this context?
My mom spent her childhood mostly under Nazi occupation. She still told us about having nightmares about it when she was in her eighties. I guess she was “mostly recovered."
Yes, spring will come and after enough people are vaccinated there will be real actual herd immunity, but not before. Also, for all the years of bashing in person school and the push to homeschool, one plus is that America now knows that homeschooling isn’t the cats meow after all.
I agree with the parents modeling the right behaviour.
My experience, watching parents around me, inform that parents are quick to live in their kids unfounded angst. Trying desperately to be liked, rather than respected.
It’s only a matter of time until we’re told we need a multi-trillion dollar investment in our youth to compensate for the consequences of pandemic isolation and educational deficits.
Yes, spring will come and after enough people are vaccinated there will be real actual herd immunity, but not before
Dont you ever get tired of digging up those goal posts and moving them?
Vaccinate the vulnerable, and heath care workers. Who cares if the healthy contract a bad cold?
But, as I have been asking for 8 months, What is the goal? Still waiting for that pre vaccine question.
Same question (different answer?) what is the goal?
I'm so old I remember, two weeks to flatten the curve, (but it would spread out the illness and death, not prevent it)
"half of kids mostly recover."
Half! Mostly! Great!
Kids are resilient
This is what adults tell themselves when they know they are fucking up their kids.
"Inga said...
Also, for all the years of bashing in person school and the push to homeschool, one plus is that America now knows that homeschooling isn’t the cats meow after all."
Our resident dullard equates forced remote learning with home schooling. And of course there never has been widespread bashing of in-person school. Just a bashing of it's quality. Idiot.
"America now knows that homeschooling isn’t the cats meow after all.”
Not really the vibe I am picking up IRL
Really setting quite the bar there.
"Astonishing research on child soldiers in Sierra Leone has shown that even after years of conscription, forced participation in murder and rape, half of kids mostly recover."
There ya' go! Half the kids mostly require!
Given results like that, why would anyone be opposed to using children as soldiers?
Dilbert covered it today. cartoon
“But, as I have been asking for 8 months, What is the goal? Still waiting for that pre vaccine question.
Same question (different answer?) what is the goal?”
The goal, dear man, is to eradicate Covid in the population. 250,000 aren’t dead because of a “bad cold”. The goal for all the vaccines we now depend on is to eradicate viruses and bacteria that kill and sicken humans. Look at the communities of Hasidic Jews in New York and the outbreaks of measles, because they were unwilling to vaccinate. Most people survive measles too. Should we now go to some model of vaccination that only targets “the vulnerable”? How do you know that Covid doesn't have long term effects for the person who survives it, or are you cognitively capable of understanding that Covid isn’t merely a bad cold, even for healthy people.
Murder and rape would help alleviate the boredom.
New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows a 24 percent spike over last year in emergency visits for mental-health issues among 5-to-11-year-olds and a 31 percent rise among 12-to-17-year-olds.
"Figure 1" (page 1676) shows there were fewer child-ED visits in 2020 than in 2019, but that the percentage of those vists which were "mental" increased from about 1% to 1.4%. (BTW, the CDC's numbers below Figure 1 don't match figure 1.; they say it changed from 1.094% to 1.820%)
"During weeks 12–42, 2020 (mid-March–October) however, average weekly reported numbers of total ED visits by children were 43% lower (149,055), compared with those during 2019 (262,714),"
So the number of mental health visits for children changed from about 2,627 in 2019 to about 2,682 in 2020, and increase of ... 2%!
mezzrow said...
half of kids mostly recover.
What about the other half? What does "mostly" mean in this context?
That is a scary sentence. I assume "mostly" means able to function in society. Half not recovering is a lot--what do you do with them?
We don't get details, but the story's not about child soldiers, it's about our children in the age of COVID. The point is that if in even this most extreme of situations, half do ok, then in our situation, nearly all our kids will be just fine.
What does a year of isolation and anxiety do to a developing brain?
Apparently and predictably, not much at all.
This again: "New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows a 24 percent spike over last year in emergency visits for mental-health issues among 5-to-11-year-olds and a 31 percent rise among 12-to-17-year-olds."
No, the CDC doesn't report doesn't show that; it says the proportions increased 24 and 31 precent (pg 1679), but the total number of visits decreased by 43%. Therefore the number of mental health visits only increased by 2%.
Children will tell their children about what it was like to grow up now, in the year of no school, no parties, no playdates, no kissing.
Sorry to inform the author, but kids have been having parties (and kissing).
Mine have been in school, but then they go to private school, so the incentives were there for them to be in school.
“@Inga: The goal, dear man, is to eradicate Covid in the population.”
No, it isn’t. That is nearly impossible. Only two viruses have ever been eradicated.
Better think of a different goal.
I’ve wondered throughout this pandemic how pretending there is no pandemic and letting Covid spread like wildfire in the population so much so that schools have to close to in person education has affected children? If people would’ve taken the virus seriously, done the mitigation techniques, like properly wearing masks, not gathering in bars and gyms and political rallies indoors, it could have allowed for schools to never to have been closed.
Deniers put their selfish wants ahead of the needs of children. It’s the bars, indoor dining, gyms, large indoor meetings, etc. that should’ve been closed and schools should’ve stayed open.
“No, it isn’t. That is nearly impossible. Only two viruses have ever been eradicated.”
Semantics. Outbreaks of measles have been eradicated when the population is adequately vaccinated, that's a duh.
Six months too late but at least these people are finally thinking about the needs of children that are going unmet with the half-assed “distance learning” BS that is leaving half the kids behind.
even after years of conscription, forced participation in murder and rape, half of kids mostly recover
Well, SH*T! if HALF of kids, MOSTLY recover; nothing to worry about; is there?
I mean, SERIOUSLY; if HALF of kids MOSTLY recover, that means that what?
That HALF did NOT recover; and of those that did, they only PARTLY recovered???
Not like the horrible Covid, were 4/5ths don't even notice they had it
so much so that schools have to close to in person education
assumes facts, not in evidence... It's Almost like the person that wrote that was Ignorant
The goal is what klaus schwab has spelled out, smash smes that are the heart of he middle class, turn everyone into serfs.
have to close is NOT the same thing as DID close
schools, NEVER had to close
You will be restricted in your movements with digital passports. Like the udba used to do.
This period, like a war, will end. And like a war, its effects will linger, too.
My worry is that we will always be at war with Eastasia. There is too much control possible as long as we are at war.
letting Covid spread like wildfire in the population so much so that schools have to close to in person education has affected children?
Yeah this is your fear but not what actually happened here or anywhere, much less to an extent that schools “had to close” at all. Schools never had to close. Children don’t get COVID and have not even been shown to spread it. We knew this by March. Only one thing you’ve asserted upthread is remotely true: 250K dead is not a bad cold, it is more like a really bad flu year. And LOL “wildfire”! Ebola spreads like wildfire but COVID is only touching about 3% of our population. Your panic is ugly and more contagious than the virus.
Schools did have to close at first, as we were not yet aware of how Covid affected young children. When it became apparent that children were very mildly affected or not at all, schools could’ve been opened, but then Covid spiked because of ignorant selfish Covid deniers. Then the concern was that teaching staff and school staff in other capacities would become infected thereby distrupting classes because they were having to isolate children or teachers because of close contact with someone who tested positive, which made that person contagious. This is happening at the schools my grandkids go to. Every other week or so some kid or teacher has to isolate because they have been exposed to a Covid test positive person. This also is a mess and affects children negatively.
The kids I know through my work seem less burdened and happier during COVID. No stress of back to back activities. No worthless busy work. Parents home. Play dates with the kids they really like and whose families are not paranoid. More outdoor time unsupervised. Teens on the other hand are not happy with shutdown, but they are rarely happy anyway.
So people who have been in a fraticidal civil war, and those in a self imposed draconian lockdown. Paging analogy police.
“...spiked because of ignorant COVID deniers...”
No it didn’t. There were far more protesters crowding the streets than COVID deniers. Why didn’t it spike then? Are they ignorant or deniers? How can they be both? Not one child has been traced as the source of infection in schools. Not one. Closing them was a panic move and keeping them closed is child abuse. Because you a scared old woman fear the virus you want to deny children the education and enrichment in public schools that private ones have been providing all along. Show me the private school that experienced an outbreak if you can. Why can’t you? It doesn’t happen. That is supreme ignorance at work there!
"Inga said...
I’ve wondered throughout this pandemic how pretending there is no pandemic and letting Covid spread like wildfire in the population so much so that schools have to close to in person education has affected children? If people would’ve taken the virus seriously, done the mitigation techniques, like properly wearing masks, not gathering in bars and gyms and political rallies indoors, it could have allowed for schools to never to have been closed."
The schools were closed last spring dummy, and they were closed BEFORE bars, gyms, and political rallies. In WI they closed them when there had been just 75 cases...and zero deaths.
An ian miller points out, utah and new mexico have same positivity rate, new mexico went all out on masks.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1330220439298301955
Pandemic inspired lockdowns and mask mandates, lost businesses, middle income and poor people made poorer, children damaged, parents stressed with some to the point of breaking. It doesn't have to be this way, and this way is not justified by the threat from the virus. Then here comes some doctor, a psychologist, to pat us on the head and say smoothly and calmly that everything will be ok and will return to normal on a date uncertain in the future. Meanwhile, cancel Thanksgiving, stay at home, and wear your fucking mask.
The problem with the at home schooling is some kids are just disappearing. And they aren't the kids with the parents modeling good behavior, and they aren't the kids who are being homeschooled.
They are our most vulnerable kids in the big cities. Yesterday one of the big Florida counties said they've lost 7,000 kids. It's even more in Chicago.
I don't know if we'll "eradicate" this virus, but I feel certain we will not eradicate this new power. The governors like it too much.
Imagine the campaign contributions you can get when you have the sole power to keep an industry open or closed during an "emergency".
“The schools were closed last spring dummy, and they were closed BEFORE bars, gyms, and political rallies.”
No kidding. You don’t read so good, huh?
I said...
“Schools did have to close at first, as we were not yet aware of how Covid affected young children.”
The important thing, not addressed in the article: How does this benefit the Teachers' Union?
We can look forward to the half that don't recover participating in "mostly" peaceful demonstrations against police, and retail outlets, or reducing congestion on NYC subway platforms.
In lieu of the lockdown, would floyd have been passing greenbacks trying to score a fix in upper mogadishu.
UNICEF issued guidelines developed with WHO on APRIL 29, 2020 on how to immediately reopen schools safely. They urged schools be opened wherever possible to avoid lapses in early childhood development. So we knew just after Spring Break this year that schools were not vectors for spread and could be reopened. Now almost seven months later we ALSO KNOW that the virus is only spread via droplets in air and cannot live on surfaces. No need to sanitize every desk and pen. But schools are still irrationally closed because the unions like being paid for not showing up. Politics is literally killing our children and holding them back in their development. Where are the people who advocate “for the children” all the time now that kids need their help? Oh. There they are. Auditioning for czar positions in the mythical Biden admin.
Herd immunity by the end of 2022, normal life returns 2024. It's really a blessing for you people Trump lost because the Democrat party will own the Covid disaster by then. Republic Party will take back the house and increase the Senate in 2022 and will hold in 2024 with a Republic President.
Trump lost the battle but the deplorables will win the war.
An ian miller points out, utah and new mexico have same positivity rate, new mexico went all out on masks.
Amerindians are about 10% of NM's population (and < 1% of Utah's population), but make up about 30% of NM's cootie cases.
Most people under 30 are fairly immune already Howard, and by May every American in a high risk group will have access to a vaccine. We will have effective herd protection shortly thereafter. This virus is not very contagious in case you haven’t noticed. If it was as virulent as the media pretend 20-50% of us would have had of already. Even with all the false positives this pandemic ain’t gonna crack 5% of the general population. Why do you keep pretending it’s the Black Death or fucking Ebola? Really your fearmongering is silky and quite counterproductive. By the way, whatever happened to that hot take about “herd immunity” being racist? That was funny!
Covid is nothing but a bad Flu. Meaning the asymptomatic infected don't infect others. If one has symptomatic Covid stay home, just like we've done for hundreds of years. We also know that a positive Covid test doesn't mean you are necessarily infected at the time of the test. If one is over Covid you will still have dead Covid RNA in your sinuses.
I still haven't found a study justifying mask. Previous WHO guideline foot notes say there is no scientific proof mask help, even though in the body of the guidelines they recommend them. If one has a small Covid viral load would the mask just be a facial petri dish? How often do people change masks? Medical personnel do it often, must be a reason.
Also, if Covid is spread by aerosol then your mask is useless if one can smell cigarette smoke through it, Covid is much smaller than cigarette smoke particles.
Interestingly the powers that be keep limiting bars, eateries, gyms and churches activity, but show no contact tracing info during news conferences or on official websites to actually justify closers. One has to wonder if all those politically connected hired to do contact tracing aren't just collecting a paycheck.
Amerindians are about 10% of NM's population (and < 1% of Utah's population), but make up about 30% of NM's cootie cases.
Interesting. This is one of those demographic issues VermonTim was misunderstanding the other day, part of his insistence that Sweden did something “wrong” because the death rate compared to Norway was (at this point) markedly different and the countries are neighbors. Hmmm. I don’t know why yet and so can’t explain these different results, but this is what makes epidemiology interesting. Time, data and analysis will evff e.g. briskly give us those answers probably.
Typo alert: “fearmongering is silky” should be “fearmongering is silly” obviously.
"Kids are resilient."
For progs, kids are tools. When they want to maintain power and serve prog special interests at kids' expense, they are resilient. When they want to seize power at parents or taxpayers' expense, kids are victims suffering from inequity.
Again: “Time, data and analysis will evff e.g. briskly give us those answers probably” makes more sense corrected as “Time, data and analysis will eventually give us those answers probably.”
The moral superiority it take to be Royal ads Inga is impressive.
I kinda wish it was earned or deserved.
But that's not in the cards.
Personally, I hope Royal ass Inga gets what she deserves.
Blogger Inga said...
“No, it isn’t. That is nearly impossible. Only two viruses have ever been eradicated.”
Semantics. Outbreaks of measles have been eradicated when the population is adequately vaccinated, that's a duh.
Hey Skipper, this is what you get when you try to correct the resident dullard. "Outbreaks" have been eradicated except in deep blue areas of deep blue cities in deep blu states. The clue to understand that you are in one is the presence of Whole Foods markets.
The former nurse dos not understand the difference between vaccination and eradication.
"I don’t know why yet and so can’t explain these different results,”
But in the future you will be proven correct, we know how it goes. Meanwhile those people are dead in Sweden and not dead in Norway and polyclonal antibodies and vaccines are coming in the near future and Norway kept their grandmas and grandpas alive to reach that day.
You know that if you look only at the death rates of people under 70 in Norway and in Sweden, the death rate in Sweden is still much higher than Norway. I know because I did it after reading the “Dry Tinder” “study.”
"Covid is nothing but a bad Flu. Meaning the asymptomatic infected don't infect others”
Actually when they did aggressive contact tracing in Singapore, they found that people without symptoms were responsible for several clusters of the disease. If what you are saying were true, this would have been under control months ago.
These measures used against COVID pretty much wiped out the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere this year and still COVID is spreading.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-season-never-came-to-the-southern-hemisphere1/
Spring will not come.
Winter is coming, and it will be the longest one ever.
Just because a vaccine will likely not extirpate the virus doesn’t mean that it won’t go a long long ways to getting our lives back to normal. Also the polyclonal antibody treatment will greatly reduce the severity of hospitalizations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/fda-issues-emergency-authorization-for-regeneron-antibody-cocktail-to-treat-covid-19/ar-BB19Eugd
Yes people will continue to die of the virus at low levels in the foreseeable future. The virus happened and we don’t get to move to the other universes where it didn’t happen.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by [Joe Biden??]
And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.
Now are our brows bound with victorious wreaths;
Our bruised arms hung up for monuments;
Our stern alarums changed to merry meetings,
Our dreadful marches to delightful measures.
"This virus is not very contagious in case you haven’t noticed. If it was as virulent as the media pretend 20-50% of us would have had of already.”
First you assume that the measures that we have taken have had zero effect. Where the virus first appeared and was completely unchecked, large percentages of the population ended up catching it. After that time, a large percentage of the population has isolated and reduced social contact. If you are going to bring up Diamond Princess, is your argument really going to be that the passengers on that ship did not change behavior and self isolate once it became clear there was an infection aboard the ship?
Have you ever heard of the error of assuming what you are trying to prove? I think you are desperately trying to convince yourself.
Lisa..we got a hole in the next issue, give us 5000 words of eye candy, pablum that you do so well..
"Made glorious summer by this son of Scranton”
“The schools were closed last spring dummy, and they were closed BEFORE bars, gyms, and political rallies.”
No kidding. You don’t read so good, huh?
I said...
“Schools did have to close at first, as we were not yet aware of how Covid affected young children.”
I read fine. Just didn't see your CYA post until after mine posted. But you wrote that after someone posted the same rebuttal I did. You originally tried to make the case that gym and bar attendance forced schools to close. What a fucking dullard and liar.
"Also, for all the years of bashing in person school and the push to homeschool, one plus is that America now knows that homeschooling isn’t the cats meow after all."
"The cats meow"! Oh, Igna, I can almost see the sparkle in your Midwestern eye. Blue, no doubt.
Our experience, with the many people who have contacted us about home-schooling, is that a lot of kids won't be going back to prison, when the kid-prisons re-open.
I'm trying to think who will play Igna in the movie.
Inga, if you think homeschooling has suffered because of the scamdemic, you are truly clueless.
"If it was as virulent as the media pretend 20-50% of us would have had of already."
In New York State serology seems to indicate that up to 33% of New Yorkers have had the virus, heavily skewed towards New York City, where the rate is likely higher.
In April, tests already showed that 20% of NYC residents had already been infected.
Keep your kids away from Lefties. The Platinum rule.
Kids now know that their teachers are lazy cowards who used Covid as an excuse not to do their fucking jobs.
The Covid deaths are way cheaper than the long term cost of health damage done to the severe case survivors, which is about 5x deaths. Hopefully better treatments in 2021 will drive those numbers down.
With the vaccine, distribution and compliance fuck ups are very possible. I expect some keystone kops behavior to prolong the pandemic and improve Republic Party midterm prospects.
“You originally tried to make the case that gym and bar attendance forced schools to close.”
Um,...no. Bars and gym attendance and idiots like you pretending there is no pandemic made it almost impossible for schools to reopen in fall. Some did and some are still closed. You really need to work on your reading comprehension. You calling others “dullard”, is ironic to say the least. You even called Althouse’s son an idiot and say he is stupid, because you probably can’t understand what he writes either. I’m sorry you have cognition issues. Your mama drop you on your head one too many times?
If bars, eateries, gyms and schools are such hot beds of Covid why not give the vaccines to them first? Then we could move on to sports teams and churches.
As for Michael K’s cognition, I’m assuming it once was much better than it is today.
Inga
You are shitting me right. You are unaware of the CDC telling the nation last week,
“At no time has the CDC suggested school should be closed...
...All school should remain open. It is the safest place for children to be.”
CDC Director Redfield exclaims that following the data shows "there has been no intra-school transmission and we must make sure not to make emotional decisions when the data strongly supports making sure schools remain open."
He concluded, It is counterproductive to close schools."
This must be old news from November 19, 2020. WTF!
So Dr Redfield is a Covid denier or is he explaining what cowards union public school teachers are. Or that Dem politicians suck teachers' union cock.
"I expect some keystone kops behavior to prolong the pandemic and improve Republic Party midterm prospects.”
I think that leaving the Democrats to their own devices will be enough to get back the House, which is now well in range. Opposition party almost always picks up seats in the mid-terms.
“CDC Director Redfield exclaims that following the data shows "there has been no intra-school transmission and we must make sure not to make emotional decisions when the data strongly supports making sure schools remain open."
He concluded, It is counterproductive to close schools."”
No kidding, I’m arguing for schools to be open. Close the damn bars, restaurants and indoor meeting places adults gather and make the priority on keeping schools open and getting the positive infection test rates DOWN. I’ve said at least three times that I’m in favor of schools being in-person. What are you confused about?
The schools in the municipalities that remain closed are doing so because it’s not just children who are in that building. There are plenty of adults who if they catch it in large enough numbers because it’s so prevalent now in the community, affects whether the children have enough teachers to actually teach them. The adults are in that closed building for at least 8 hours a day. It’s also recommended by the CDC to not be in buildings with people outside your own household for extended periods. It’s evident that selfish people don’t care if teachers, nurses or doctors put themselves at risk, as long as you people get to go to bars, gyms and large events indoors.
Your cult leader LOST because of his schizophrenic retarded governing, which included how he dealt with Covid. Now how about you idiots stop being losers and try to grow the fuck up and stop buying into stupid conspiracy theories, even about what Covid is.
How about modeling utter contempt for corrupt, power mad government officials and an enduring respect and desire for truly limited government.
That's what parents should be teaching kids now.
Hey Skipper: “No, it isn’t. That is nearly impossible. Only two viruses have ever been eradicated.”
Inga: Semantics. Outbreaks of measles have been eradicated when the population is adequately vaccinated, that's a duh.
Nonsense. Outbreaks of every disease there has ever been eventually subside, including throughout all of history before vaccines.
So think of a different goal than eradication, because it won't happen. Viruses are going to virus, and it is the height of folly to think they are, like the tides, something we can control.
See all of Europe, for example.
Inga said...
“You originally tried to make the case that gym and bar attendance forced schools to close.”
Um,...no. Bars and gym attendance and idiots like you pretending there is no pandemic made it almost impossible for schools to reopen in fall.
No.
That was elected democrats you piece of shit.
You are just a disgusting lying piece of shit with no intellectual honesty. You locked down schools Inga.
You did.
You.
Inga said...
Schools did have to close at first, as we were not yet aware of how Covid affected young children. When it became apparent that children were very mildly affected or not at all, schools could’ve been opened, but then Covid spiked because of ignorant selfish Covid deniers.
What about the BLM protests?
6 months of people burning other peoples lives down in mobs?
You are a completely dishonest person.
Unintended Consequences? Polio and COVID 19
when the population is adequately vaccinated
Community immunity when sufficiently inoculated, whether intrinsic, acquired, or vaccinated, reduces infection vectors. The probable cause of Covid-19 spikes is the poorly conceived policy to delay, prolong the spread to vulnerable individuals (e.g Planned Parent), and restrictive mandates (e.g. masks) that create a false sense (e.g. coin toss) of safety, and increase other infectious vectors (e.g. bacterial contagion).
What about the BLM protests?
6 months of people burning other peoples lives down in mobs?
Some, Select Black Lives Matter protests, and invading neighborhoods to intimidate people a la Democrat-affiliated KKK.
If the WhuFlu is so damned deadly, then why are not all of the homeless people in every large city not dead already? They live in squalor and all have compromised immune systems, and every day for them should be a 'super spreader' event if even one of their cohorts is infected. Amazingly, this has not happened. Why not? Why are not any health care officlials, leaders, the msm even interested in the question?
Well, it does not fit the narrative, it does not promote panic in the normal population and give our 'leaders' the opening they so desire to exercise unrestrained power over the people.
I am sure Inga will be along shortly to 'educate' me on my ignorance and racism. Despite her and other 'narrative' spreaders, I still want to know why all of the homeless are not dead, as they should have had a death rate larger than that acheived by the gov of NY in the long term care facilities there.
The NYT is working here to cover for de Blasio's bad decision.
This medically unnecessary shutdown of schools is hurting kids. My son who is a freshman in college is going to have to repeat a class because he did not realize he had to show up to labs in person. He did all the lab homework, but was still docked. The set up is very confusing. He also has not been able to make any friends other than the students he already knows from high school. However my high school junior loves it. She has autism and shuts herself in her room after school, saying "I'm done with people." She even takes her dinner to her room. She has adapted well, making herself a schedule that she follows so that she submits all of her assignments on time. The shutdown has been disastrous for my freshman, who opted for virtual instruction to be with her sister. She's the extrovert of the family and struggled with depression while she was at home. She could not deal with the lack of structure either. She failed math and nearly failed a biology class. Thankfully she was able to return to in person school this six weeks and is making A's in all her classes.
I teach in an inner city elementary school and see the discrepancy between my in person kids and my virtual ones. I zoom with them during reading and math so that they're participating with the in person kids, and post several assignments daily online related to what we're learning in class. Only 1 or 2 of the virtual kids joins zooms consistently, and most just do a few of the online assignments here and there. It's just not the same. The kids in the classroom are advancing in their knowledge and proficiency in English, but the ones at home are still mostly native language only. Every time one student in a class tests positive, the whole class with the teacher and any aides who assisted that class at dismissal have to quarantine for 14 days. Yet no one has caught Covid from any student, not even the students' siblings or twin. The principal acknowledged that all cases have come in through the community; there are zero cases of transmission within the school. When the classes go on quarantine, the students who will succeed anyway keep up, but many just fall away. The saddest thing for me is that one of my brightest students from last year is just staying home since her mother is afraid to send her, and not even enrolled online because the teachers doing virtual had 30 kids plus at the start of the year and she was turned away then. One of my other kids who was already behind last year is not enrolled anywhere this year. Our schools are not serving these children and it breaks my heart.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
So asymptomatic people do not spread the virus.
Science status: reasonably settled
Now we wear the face diapers of suppression to show our fealty to the masters.
Royal ass Inga pretends that what she typed months ago does not matter.
Has she met tim in vermont?
Blogger Inga said...
As for Michael K’s cognition, I’m assuming it once was much better than it is today.
How would you know? Resident dullard.
I expect some keystone kops behavior to prolong the pandemic and improve Republic Party midterm prospects.
Biden has that under control. Trump has the general all organized for the vaccine distribution but I expect our dullard leftist class to fuck it up. Remember the Obamacare rollout ?
The "learning pods" might be the most interesting development to come out of this mess. The teachers' union, which will be running a big part of Biden's regime, is death on home schooling.
"half of kids mostly recover"
Those are the scary ones.
Also, for all the years of bashing in person school and the push to homeschool, one plus is that America now knows that homeschooling isn’t the cats meow after all.
If you think the desire to home school is in opposition to in-person schooling, you're even stupider than I thought. And I didn't think that was possible.
Our district is telling kids who are failing whose parents chose remote learning that they have to come back to in person or they’re expelled, and their parents can “homeschool” them. But they won’t.
Abstract of Birkel's article;
"Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown."
I would say the most interesting statistic is this one;
"All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated."
That's a remarkably high participation rate. Do you suppose there were incentives? Of course, that's nothing to the precincts in Wisconsin with 350% registered voter turnout.
So asymptomatic people do not spread the virus.
Science status: reasonably settled
Now we wear the face diapers of suppression to show our fealty to the masters.
I know that Birkel will only dimly understand this post at best, and so think I am saying things that I am not saying, but sorry he’s wrong.
It is, as far as I can tell a really solid study and I accept that “asymptomatic” people, people who never develop symptoms are not spreading the virus. This is probably why schools are not the petri dishes of COVID that many had feared they would be, including myself, even though I have thought the schools should be open anyway. Although as the data came in from Sweden over the summer, it seemed more and more likely that schools were not spreading the virus.
The reason that it has nothing to do with “face diapers” is that the study doesn’t say anything about presymptomatic cases, so peopel are still spreading the virus without knowing they have it.
Investigation of COVID-19 cases in Singapore identified seven clusters (clusters A–G) in which presymptomatic transmission likely occurred. These clusters occurred during January 19–March 12, and involved from two to five patients each (Figure). Ten of the cases within these clusters were attributed to presymptomatic transmission and accounted for 6.4% of the 157 locally acquired cases reported as of March 16.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7147908/
So sorry, the study has nothing to say about whether you should wear a mask indoors even when you are not aware of any symptoms.
The study does strongly suggest that kids should be let off the hook on masks though. And that schools should ease up on restrictions on the kids and open up fully already.
stop being losers and try to grow the fuck up and stop buying into stupid conspiracy theories, even about what Covid is.
Isn't lack of shorterm memory that signals dementia?
This is laugh out loud funny. This from the same voice that gave us. "walls are closing in" and "only Mueller knows what Mueller knows" (actually Mueller was the only person the didn't know what Mueller knew). But by all means ignore all the outlandish voting irregularities/fraud
Why I respect Glenn Reynolds, he didn’t do the Ed Driscoll thing and read into the headline a bunch of stuff the study on asymptomatic people doesn’t support, look for Ed and Sarah Hoyt to go balls to the wall with that though.
And look, more evidence that masks do work from Glenn, not Ed, of course.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-exhaustive-masks-wearers-nearby.html
Biden isn't even President Elect, but he has caused his leftist followers to lose half the IQ points. The stupid here is eye opening.
The covid goal is TOTAL eradication. That explains the epic failure of the experts, it thats their goal.
Should we now go to some model of vaccination that only targets “the vulnerable”? How do you know that Covid doesn't have long term effects for the person who survives it, or are you cognitively capable of understanding that Covid isn’t merely a bad cold, even for healthy people.
What is the alternative to prioritizing the vulnerable? We aren't going to start with 330,000,000 doses of vaccine. Adults prioritize. And I never said "only the vulnerable" If your reading comprehension is this bad, I cant even guess how many people you murdered by getting the medication wrong for your patients
How do you know that Covid doesn't have long term effects for the person who survives it,
First, what evidence do you have?
Second, exactly how does that change what we do over the next 60 days? See how that works? tossing non-sequiturs into the mix is meaningless. Unless you want to sabotage progress. This is kind of leftist SOP. Paralysis by analysis. I much prefer the President Trump model. Identify a goal and achieve it. Operation Warp Speed. Ask The omniscient Dr Fauci how his AIDS vaccine is working out. He's been following your plan for 30 years. Trump vs Fauci. you pick.
If they don’t open up the schools significantly more by January. It won’t be because they are “following the science."
"First, what evidence do you have?”
Do a quick search on COVID long haulers and make your choice.
Do a quick search on COVID long haulers and make your choice.
Correlation? Causation? Anti vaxers? make your choice.
But AGAIN...how does that affect decisions over the next 90 days. Not one iota.
Inga:
Regular old flu kills about 60,000 people per year. 90,000 to 100,000 in a bad year. Should we close down the economy until we "completely eradicate" that disease?
Regular old flu kills about 60,000 people per year.
If I read the piece correctly, the number of flu deaths is a guess. A data analysis. Like they are doing with covid now.
The CDC has to cdc, so who knows what's going on, with their "statistics".
"Do a quick search on COVID long haulers and make your choice."
Is that the same as long covid?
"And look, more evidence that masks do work"
"The research ... found ... that a three-layer mask consisting of outer layers of a flexible, tightly woven fabric and an inner layer made from one of several materials designed to filter small particles, should provide at least 74 percent material filtration efficiency for the most penetrating particle size."
They don't seem to have investigated the efficacy of just tying some rag around your face. Pity.
Inga said...
Is there still no way to block folks here???
Uncle Joe is never gonna let the kids take off their masks.
And by this time next year there should be an army of lawyers suing every government agency involved in this fiasco.
tim in vermont will lie about the positions he is taking here, but in about eight months.
It's a burden and a curse to be correct.
I apologize in advance for calling tim in vermont to account for his continually being wrong.
People without symptoms are not infectious, he admits.
But somehow people without symptoms are also infectious, he claims.
The weasel words are exciting to follow.
I do try to remember not to type untoward things to you.
Dealing with grief can make people lose it.
Covid spiked because of ignorant selfish Covid deniers
like the people in that study, the huge majority, who always wore masks but got covid anyway?
You should look up the following things: scapegoating, folk devils, mass delusions, moral panics.
I know it's really fun to find people to blame -- because it's never ever ourselves, is it, and simple people can't live with the idea that sometimes things just happen and they're really not under our control -- but it's pretty childish and ignorant and unsophisticated and superstitious nonetheless.
And look, more evidence that masks do work from Glenn, not Ed, of course.
That and Glenn's wife pimping Amazon affiliate links to boxes of masks three times a day is kind of a chicken and egg question, isn't it?
The data is chaotic and will only be sorted out later. Case in point, positive tests can be in error as can negative. Many mild cases result in no long-term result on antibody tests because the body’s nonspecific immune response is enough to handle COVID. Stats can be misleading day to day, so watch the trend on deaths per day as a reliable indicator. It’s in unusual territory now which h may indicate a different virus or mutated COVID as even with strong suppression the secondary and tertiary spikes shouldn’t exceed prior spike overall. Interesting but not alarming yet. Wait for good data as the vulnerable get vaccinated
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"That and Glenn's wife pimping Amazon affiliate links to boxes of masks three times a day “
I am sure they are getting rich! RICH! off of that, as opposed to advertising something else, hawking masks to a fundamentally resistant audience must be the ticket to soul peddling worthy wealth! Or maybe they are trying to help their readers with something they believe in.
But this is what I mean about Instapundit and its audience since adding people like Driscoll and Hoyt.
The middle of the country is moving into the green, shouldn't be long until the coasts follow, maybe in time for Christmas to go on as usual.
Today's New Cases Update from JHU
"You should look up the following things: scapegoating, folk devils, mass delusions, moral panics.”
You should read them yourself. Maybe you are scapegoating masks, since they seem to be the most visible symbol of the pandemic, as far as delusions go, you need look no further than Mike here, who keeps struggling to find evidence for his theories and so postulates them into existence rather than give up his position that we should do nothing because the “virus gonna virus.” Or you could ask yourself whether the claim that mask mandates are the next step to executions at football stadiums isn’t a “moral panic.”
“Folk devils”? I guess those would be the scientists doing research that attacks the delusion that COVID is a hoax.
"ike the people in that study, the huge majority, who always wore masks but got covid anyway”
Math is hard, we know. But people where masks where COVID is thick.
Your lips to God’s ear steve.
It would be nice if thos lovely trends were showing up in the deaths statistic
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Deaths will lag the case trend so that should show up soon.
"That and Glenn's wife pimping Amazon affiliate links to boxes of masks three times a day “
If you have visited the insty site more than 10 times you should have figured out there is a contractual arrangement with amazon. My informed opinion is amazon sends the links they want to insty on a weekly basis. This is what amazon is featuring, not insty.
Deaths have not mirrored the rise in cases. A fact the media is hiding. Just like all the "experts" telling schools there is nothing to warrant closing schools. Every morning the local news reports about the schools having to go to online learning. Never a single mention about the CDC findings on schools. The media is propaganda.
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