... perhaps by tomorrow's sunrise we will know the answer. I hope so! I'd like a crisply clear result to come into focus as soon as possible, and I'd like gracious winners and losers, all united in love for our beautiful country.
Please use the comments section to discuss the election doings. We'll be moderating comments through quickly over the course of the evenings. I have seen a few requests to take moderation off, but you don't know what you are asking for. It's nice of you to have a positive idea of what could happen, but I have the real-life experience of seeing what the bad people will do. You'll have to accept the only substitute I have to offer — quick approval of comments over the course of the evening.
Please don't talk about the moderation problem in the comments. Talk about the elections!
पोस्ट्स
३११ टिप्पण्या:
311 पैकी 1 – 200 नवीन› नवीनतम»I like my neighborhood. Almost all the signs are for local candidates and mostly for one who lives next door. (I've only seen two for the presidential election. I put out no signs at all.) People aren't at each other's throats on our street even though there is no political consensus.
en O’Malley Dillon, of Joe Biden’s campaign, says they continue to believe that Biden has “multiple pathways” to winning 270 electoral votes. She stresses that they believe Biden can win without winning FL, PA, OH, and TX, which she called the four largest battleground states.
Ann, in an gesture of healing, I promise to continye reading your blog if Biden takes Wisconsin
I'd like gracious winners and losers, all united in love for our beautiful country.
We tried that last time and it didn't work out. If Trump wins I wanna see more sore winners and some casualties on the left for their dishonesty
That quick, huh?
I have no freaking idea who will win. Or when.
The sun will come out tomorrow no matter who wins. Will the day stay sunny and bright, that depends on whether or not Depends Biden loses.
Beautiful day in Western WI. Walked down to vote. I knew four of the eight or so people working the polling place. One of the two ladies opening the absentee ballots is a regular visitor to our neighborhood quarantine cocktail circle. (Lawn chairs six feet apart....adjustable to further or closer for couples depending on how lockdown has been going...). She smiled when I asked if any of them were turning up with crayon, ketchup or beer on them.
It was calm, relaxed, seemed well under control.
Of course it was being held in the Library fiction section with Halloween decorations but that seemed fitting.
Pachydermis
If Trump is in trouble in Florida early, then the fat lady is singing.
I'd like gracious winners and losers, all united in love for our beautiful country.
Imagine. It's not that hard to do.
Stock market seems to be drinking the Trump Kool Aide
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-sees-sp-tumbling-2500-case-blue-wave-surging-3900-if-red-wave
Somebody bet 5 million dollars on a Trump win yesterday. We will see.
I'm tired of the future of the Republic depending on the outcome of every election!
It's like the IRA told Thatcher: You have to be lucky all the time; we only have to be lucky once.
... perhaps by tomorrow's sunrise we will know the answer. I hope so
I doubt it. Maybe if there is a blowout, but I suspect that we are in for a lot of drama and "mostly peaceful"protests. We will know the result by December after the lawyers and judges have their say.
Early signs of Trump blowout: takes PA and VA. Later signs: takes WI, MI and OH.
Early signs of a Biden blowout: takes FL and NC. Later signs: takes WI, MI and OH.
Here in AZ, I expect the state to go for Trump, but the Dems to win in the Senate.
What with all the absentee, in-person, required mail-in (in some states), machines failing due to too much hand sanitizer, low in-person turnout and routine city cheating - I feel that I don't know, don't know, don't know. And must know, must know, must know. And don't know, can't wait, must wait, hurry up sundown. And am doing other things, as is only intelligent, but then find myself listening to the car radio, find myself sitting at the computer scrolling through guesses, speculations. The hopes and fears of all my years are grinding in my mind as it gets dark with a beautiful sunset and moonrise
"f Trump is in trouble in Florida early, then the fat lady is singing.”
I assume you mean Biden, but if you mean Trump, then link please.
Remember 1996?
Reposting from the PA thread:
Wife and I are poll watching in Bucks County PA, the basis for that awful NY Times article our hostess blogged about that mentioned the Trump Store. The Dem poll watcher, who has worked this precinct for 37 years (nice guy, Marine) says this precinct is normally 70-30 Democrat.
Republicans have been leading here since 7:30am. Current in person count is 231 R 224 D. Turnout is well over 60% (including mail in), normally about 40%. Dem poll watcher said he's never seen a line at night, but we've had several form.
Nevada going Trump.
As far as that 5 million bet on Trump, probably figures if Biden wins, he's going to lose it all anyway.
Southeast Connecticut. Lovely fall day. Our usual polling place with characteristic small-town friendliness. No lines, no drama. Lots of Biden/Harris lawn signs (they have been up for weeks) and some local names for the down-ticket contests.
No idea how things will play out nationally but CT is deep blue so any vote for Trump is just Quixotic. Which does not lessen its importance...
Garry Trudeau did comic strip after comic strip with his idiot journalist exploring Reagan's mixed-up mind. Reagan was a lot sharper when he entered the White House than Biden is today. If somebody wants to explore Biden's scrambled mind, I don't think it will be Garry Trudeau.
And all this time, I thought I was a bad person. I'll take that as good news for the day.
Well, when can this madness end so I can start worrying about something new.
It was a quiet day in south coastal Maine. Rather typical for this time of year. Everyone I came across was cheerful. The sun was shining, the wind was blowing, got to about 40 degrees F (Feels like 27 according to the app).
I am pessimistic about a Trump win, though that is what I hope for. Was surprised to discover we have ranked choice voting for POTUS and US Senator here. Seems really idiotic - too clever by half. An engineer's idea of a solution for a manufactured social and political problem. Losers changing the rules.
Will be checking in from time to time tonight looking forward to the comments from the people I trust and respect and that often offer good and accurate insights. Then I'll hit the sack around 10pm (my usual time) and rise to see what happened overnight. That's what I did four years ago and it worked. I'm a superstitious sort.
It was a quiet day in south coastal Maine. Rather typical for this time of year. Everyone I came across was cheerful. The sun was shining, the wind was blowing, got to about 40 degrees F (Feels like 27 according to the app).
I am pessimistic about a Trump win, though that is what I hope for. Was surprised to discover we have ranked choice voting for POTUS and US Senator here. Seems really idiotic - too clever by half. An engineer's idea of a solution for a manufactured social and political problem. Losers changing the rules.
Will be checking in from time to time tonight looking forward to the comments from the people I trust and respect and that often offer good and accurate insights. Then I'll hit the sack around 10pm (my usual time) and rise to see what happened overnight. That's what I did four years ago and it worked. I'm a superstitious sort.
For an experiment, see how long it takes the media to call FL for Trump as it's obviously going to be Trump by a larger margin than last time.
AA sez: "....and I'd like gracious winners and losers, all united in love for our beautiful country. "
I like this Prof!!
Is anyone predicting a Biden victory? If so, self-identify!
DJT's ahead by 200K in Florida.
Nate is focusing on Broward which seems to be a ray of hope for Biden in Florida.
Also, ignore all exit polls tonight. Those are more bogus than the Nate Silver polls!
@Bay Area Guy: How do you know that?
I make no predictions. I have no confidence in anything, even myself.
I need a cookie.
I'm hoping for a Trump win, but have no idea how it will play out. I temporarily blocked an acquaintance of mine because of his excessive political posting. That has run out and if I get my wish I will have to extend it. Just today I found out that Donald Trump has personally hurt my acquaintance and that I am a racist. Also, that liking his "I voted" post means I voted for Biden. While I want Trump to win for a host of policy reasons, it will also be kinda fun to watch my liberal friend's heads explode.
Bay Area Guy said...
Is anyone predicting a Biden victory? If so, self-identify!
Me. Biden wins WI and overall. Not with my help though.
I watched the TV coverage of election night 2016 afterwards on all the cahnnels trying to understand the media fail. Here's some conclusions. NPR did the best job. They saw Trump was winning and analyzed the trend very well. They actually had called 270 electoral votes for Trump before he began speaking, the only major news company to do so. ABC news with George Stephanopoulos was the center line, interesting as a show but obfuscating as news. ABC knew what was happening as shown by their almost continuous updating of the Florida vote but it did not analyze and explain that Florida is filled with retirees from the MidWest and hence the Florida vote was predicting the Blue Wall fail. ABC had 17 or 18 commenters present in the studio but only one Trump supporter, Alex Castellanos. NBC and CBS were not interesting and were obfuscating. MSNBC was fun to watch in that drinking-the-tears-of-the-liberals sort of way. They all made an attempt in the period before 11:00 to explain that the voters were dissatisfied and to talk about why they were and what it meant. But after 11:00 they began to talk about how awful Trump was and how minorities were sitting home in fear and how little girls were crying cause Hillary wasn't President and in general they took up the themes that they have followed for the last four years. There was a rumor reported by NPR that around that time high Clinton staffers were meeting one on one with certain reporters, (none at NPR.) No one has ever explained that rumor. Anyhow, I expect that the only difference in the coverage tonight is that they will start with the disregard-Trump-and-half-of-America theme rather than ending with it. Which is a big difference when think of it.
I’ve had my Biden bye-ku ready since about the D caucus in Iowa. Had to believe the senile swamper made it through the primary and is poised to win this thing.
The New York Times still has one of the best election reporting websites. No politicking, just pretty fast updates of state and county percentages. Here's the link, if you're interested:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
I'm pulling for a Red Tsunami.
Watching RCP refresh its tally. I'm obsessed. Been hopeful all day, now very nervous.
Also ... drinking.
"It's nice of you to have a positive idea of what could happen, but I have the real-life experience of seeing what the bad people will do."
You and Sarah Hoyt.
I think it’s time to watch a movie and check in in a couple of hours.
We have seen this “Let’s get excited about what we hear during the day” before.
"It's like the IRA told Thatcher: You have to be lucky all the time; we only have to be lucky once."
Ah, yes. The proverbial luck o' the Irish!
Thanks Francisco D for these insights. Can I add: early signal of Biden blowout: Biden wins Georgia. I've read that Georgia results (whatever they may be) will be out early and fairly completely. I think any path for Trump includes GA, but some recent polls show GA for Biden.
One good note for voting integrity in PA: unlike the total shitshow that is the NJ mail in ballot debacle, in PA mail in ballots are essentially the same as absentee ballots. They have to be requested here, and at least at our poll place we had solid lists of who requested one, who was sent one and who returned one. Only two cases of someone saying they didn't request one who wound up on the list, and the election judge said they requested one in an earlier election and didn't check the box saying "don't do this every election". So, nothing too drastically bad there. Unlike NJ where they blast mailed an actual ballot to every bloody registered voter on rolls that haven't been allowed to be cleaned for YEARS. Heard over a thousand ballots were sent to a single home - but no evidence of fraud, safety the Left!
The business model for TV media is to keep you watching.
Kind of looks like a sundown to me but I'll take your word for it : )
I've got two close friends who have diametrically opposite views of the outcome of today's election. The friend in north San Diego County told me two months ago that Biden was going to stomp, fold, bend and mutilate Trump's chances in this election. According to him Biden will win in a landslide.
The other friend--in New Mexico--assures me that Trump has it in the bag in a landslide.
We shall see.
As I predicted earlier in another thread:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/poll-watchers-denied-entry-into-philadelphia-polling-stations-trump-campaign_3563567.html
So predictable.
"Is anyone predicting a Biden victory? If so, self-identify!"
I'm predicting a Biden victory (and trust me, I'm not happy about it). The obstacles, none of which are Trump's doing, are just too overwhelming. History's a card-cheat and it doesn't turn on what's rational or what's fair. Sorry to be the corpse at the wedding.
So, Ann is saying Morning in America.
I am an immigration paralegal. When Trump won in 2016 - my attorney was flooded with calls from US citzens looking for a way to buy citizenship in other countries. This task was delegated to me, which mainly consisted of web surfing and Googling terms like "Buy citizenship". No real expertise is required, it is one of those things I am severely overpaid to do. If Trump wins I wonder if I'll get this assigment again. Oh well, easy money.
I have a full day of business calls tomorrow. Regardless of tonight's outcome, I am already exhausted from all of the virtue signaling that I'll see tomorrow.
The twilight period. The sun will come out tomorrow, the dawn of a new day.... Well, I'm cautiously optimistic, anyway.
When is the last time any of you heard the words liberty or freedom mentioned in a Democrat election message?
"Let us take our stand for freedom as in the olden days." WSC
Im predicting a Biden victory. Biden wins Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump likely loses NC.
There's always the option of cynical graciousness. I remember my father saying after an election "Well, I guess it's their turn to screw things up."
>>As far as that 5 million bet on Trump, probably figures if Biden wins, he's going to lose it all anyway.
Then he should hedge by betting on Biden.
If Trump wins, his investments go up to help cover the loss of the $5M.
If Biden wins, his investments go down, but he's $5M richer.
Rampant Dem cheating in Philly AGAIN. On video, photographed, documented, witnessed, and undeniable - and lots of it.
Will anybody go to jail? Do fair honest elections mean anything to Democrats or even Independents? Would they be willing to lose if that's what it takes to have honest election? I bet a large number would vote "no" to that on a secret vote.
Lots of it posted on James Woods' Twitter feed, although Twitter seems to be deleting it as fast as it pops up. Woods may be shut down soon. Go see it if you want your blood to boil.
What you leftists (and the spectators who let them) have done to our country to debase it at every opportunity is an evil you will never be forgiven for and will yourself someday regret, but it will be too late.
About a week ago I felt a sense of calm. Confidence, if you will.
Now, I'm...not calm.
That's it. That's the comment.
Hate to say it but I will be surprised if Trump wins.
Going over Indiana and Kentucky counties right now. Looks ok for Trump. I am basically looking for counties where 90%+ of the expected vote is included in the totals according to the NYTimes website (the best website for this level of detail, by the way). I want 90%+ because I don't want to have to guess at the what percentage of this vote is vote by mail/early vote which will favor Democrats according to the polls. For example, Fayette County, Kentucky reported a big block of 51% of their vote, but that was obviously mail and early vote- not votes from today.
In Kentucky, as of right now, there are only 4 counties with 90%+ of the expected vote, and Trump is doing better in all of them than he did in 2016. Will update again in about 40 minutes. No county in Indiana has reported enough for yet when I checked 15 minutes ago. Am looking at Virginia right now.
I hope the results tonight are at least as dramatic as the recent results in the United Kingdom. Our nation needs a red wave victory.
Owen said..."Southeast Connecticut. Lovely fall day. Our usual polling place with characteristic small-town friendliness. No lines, no drama. Lots of Biden/Harris lawn signs (they have been up for weeks) and some local names for the down-ticket contests."
New Haven, CT area. The lines at my usual polling place were busy, but not as busy as the last few years. I drove past City Hall on my way home around 6:40 PM local time, and there was a surprisingly long line outdoors for registering to vote and distribution of absentee ballots, even though the polls close at 8. I've never seen that before, but social distancing is in effect, so maybe it's no different from normal. Strange, though, since none of the questions on this year's ballot are remotely competitive.
The GOP did manage to nominate a congressional candidate who seems to be someone other than a random person off the street, which is a nice change, but the candidate has no chance at all of removing Nancy Pelosi's arch-henchperson, Rosa DeLauro, from her lifetime seat in Congress.
The number of Biden-Harris signs is probably around the same as the number of Hillary signs in 2016, but the number of Hillary signs in 2016 was much lower than Obama signs or even Kerry or Gore signs in the past. Prior to Hillary, the town always was blanketed with signs for Democratic candidates. I've seen a small handful of Trump signs, but actually quite a lot this year for the Republican candidate for the state assembly. Many more signs for him than for either Biden or Trump. It's interesting that very few lawn signs mention any party affiliation.
Ok, two counties in Indiana have reached 90%+- Trump overperforming both vs 2016.
So, I am seeing what I hoped to see.
Make that 4 counties in Indiana- Trump again doing better than 2016.
Also, in the counties I am seeing near completion according to NYTimes, turnout is definitely up about 10% or more. Not keeping track at the county level, but I am regularly seeing about 10% more overall votes for Trump and just a tiny bet less of an increase for Biden.
A precinct in Orange County, Florida, reported a voter turnout rate of more than 100% on Tuesday.
The Orange County Supervisor of Elections posted a Twitter thread on Tuesday citing state turnout data, showing that Precinct 538 had voter turnout exceeding 100%.
n.n said...
"The twilight period. The sun will come out tomorrow, the dawn of a new day.... Well, I'm cautiously optimistic, anyway."
And if Biden wins the market will lose a couple of thousand points
An important county in Indiana is Steuben County, on the Michigan border. Trump won this county in 2016 10133 to 3744. At 98% of the expected vote, Trump is ahead 11322 to 4509. Almost exactly the same percentages. I am writing this comment just so I know what vote totals the NYTimes was showing for 98% of the vote. If those numbers change a lot, then I will know the NYTimes was only guessing about expected vote.
Weather was great in Georgia, so no excuses there.
And you are already seeing the bias in the calling of states. Virginia was called before Indiana. LOL!
Fox Business-Cavuto called Virginia for Biden at 7:05
Trump:53%
Biden: 46% >1% reporting
The NYT says that declaring the winner of the election is up to the media.
In a way that's true, but think about what the media has done for the last four years to one side versus the other. You Biden people should imagine if the media treated Biden that way and then said they get to decide who wins. It would be like having the Trump campaign staff tell you who wins. You OK with that?
I have RCP up on one screen and blogs on the other screen. If SC and AL are already called for Trump, then I hope Lindsey is safe in SC and Jones loses in AL.
Thank you to Althouse for keeping moderation on.
A funny detail. The NYTimes is actively highlighting Boone County, Kentucky, saying it has moved left. It only looks that way probably because of a data entry error somewhere- there is about 40% of the vote missing in this growing county. I don't think voter turnout dropped 40% in Boone County, KY.
Florida is Trump’s. And no matter what the experts say, so is Georgia. The fun starts tomorrow when Trump starts firing deep staters.
Blogger bagoh20 said...
The NYT says that declaring the winner of the election is up to the media.
In a way that's true, but think about what the media has done for the last four years to one side versus the other. You Biden people should imagine if the media treated Biden that way and then said they get to decide who wins. It would be like having the Trump campaign staff tell you who wins. You OK with that?
Yes...they are...by any means necessary
Yancey...One concern I have on your numbers, and I am just eyeballing, is that Trump increased his share by around 12% but Biden share is up close to 20%.
Biden will almost certainly win Virginia, but what I am seeing so far is that Trump is running ahead in all the counties that have reached 80%+ of the expected vote in Virginia's count. I think it is likely Trump does better in Virginia than he did in 2016, which is what I hope to see.
ALP
But did you get any sales?
Btw, I am sick of Americans who announce they will move to Canada. Why should we accept them? Especially when their only reason for wanting to come here is a refusal to accept election results.
It's very strange. They have called Virginia, where I live, for Biden and for Warner, but with about half the vote in both Trump and Gade are leading by almost 2:1. I think they've called these two states too soon.
In Congressional races there may be a red wave coming. I'll be following these races closely.
And if Biden wins the market will lose a couple of thousand points
Maybe the best way to follow the election is to follow the futures
But as much as NYT sucks ass most of the year, their election results tracking is pretty good.
The NYT trackers are cool but some of new bits headlines crack me up:
"Black voters in Minneapolis turn out for Biden but say they expect action in return." Ha ha!
Yancey Ward
Early voting. Going to heaviest in urban districts.
Fox called Florida a toss up at the same time NYT gave Trump a 92% chance of winning.
Don't watch Fox (I'm not, the wife is--she finally changed the channel to NBC due to my "complaining")
Trump wins Florida.
Who can explain what's going on in ohio?
Exciting trends in Texas, a nail biter for Texas Democrats for sure.
North Carolina, keep it up!
Joe wrote:
The New York Times still has one of the best election reporting websites. No politicking, just pretty fast updates of state and county percentages. Here's the link, if you're interested:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Right now the Times' map shows Biden winning Virginia. If you mouse over the state a popup appears showing Trump with 57% and Biden with 40%.
Right now the Times' map shows Biden winning Maryland. If you mouse over the state a popup appears showing 0% of votes reported.
"No politicking", but plenty of NYTing. Times gotta times, I guess.
Looks like Fox might have jumped the gun calling VA for Biden.
R's leading 4 incumbent D's in congressional races with more than 50% of the votes in.
Welcome back Inga. I actually missed you.
Ohio and NC seem tight
Holy crap. Holy fucking crap.
So my precinct in Bucks County closed. Get a load of these numbers.
Final registration numbers were 253 Republicans and 230 Democrats.
Final VOTE was 175 votes for Biden and 332 votes for Trump.
MASSIVE crossover of Democrats voting for Trump.
MASSIVE.
If that went national, Trump would get 70% of the vote.
And if they are making all these calls based on the party registration that's showed up, without checking how they actually voted, they are going to be WAY off.
Politico says that 36% of the votes have been counted and RealClearPolitics says 66%. Both say that Trump is ahead by more than 300,000 votes out of 1.5 million counted. And both say that Biden has won this state. Somebody will have to explain it to me later.
Trump has won Florida- Biden underperformed in all the large population counties vs Clinton in 2016- that race should be called by 9:30, but probably won't be called until tomorrow morning.
Almost all of the vote still to be counted is the vote that was done today, and Republicans dominated that pretty much all day. Right now, Trump is up by 250,000 votes- too big for any remaining mail in vote to overcome by almost a magnitude.
Also looks as though the Democrats will win only 3 seats in the next Congressional delegation from this state.
What I wrote about the Presidential election holds true for the Senatorial race as well. Gade is ahead by a quarter million votes out of 1.5 million cast, but they called the race for Warner.
Sorry, typo in my 7:24 comment. Trump and Gade were leading 3:2, not 2:1.
"Who can explain what's going on in ohio?"
Top 5 urban counties had mostly early and mail-in voting. Those votes are in the system. the other 83 counties are still out there being tabulated.
The Election Wizard
23m
Strong performance so far out of Oakland County, MI for Trump tonight. Hillary won the county 51.7% to 43.6%.
Fundraising showed the President was significantly outraising Biden in Oakland.
Donald J. Trump 57.8%
Joe Biden 40.5% 22% reporting
I haven’t predicted anything. Still not.
It is, however, very disheartening that the electorate is not, obviously, going to punish the Democrats for the shutdowns and the violence.
Trump wins!
In deep red Alabama the voting line took 2 1/2 hours. Been that way all day.
FWIW
New York Times says Trump likely to win NC, and CNN and FOX are saying Biden is ahead.
Final registration numbers were 253 Republicans and 230 Democrats.
Final VOTE was 175 votes for Biden and 332 votes for Trump. - Qwinn
Democrats were counting on all of those suburban votes around Philly to make up for the lack of enthusiasm in the city proper.
It looks like all of the states where people know how to change a tire are going for Trump.
Florida - I am not sure what vote is still "out", but Trump numbers are incredible. In 2016 he had 4.6 mil votes, 2020 already has over 5.5 mil votes. Trump beat Hillary by 103k, leads Biden presently by 340K. Wow.
This talk of how Biden has all of these mathematically possible paths to win are kind of silly. If trends emerge, they are going to wipe out most of those paths.
How did they miss this? All the talk about Trump winning today and the Biden votes coming in later. There will be plenty of Biden votes straggling in over the next few days, but the early votes have been counted first and that gives Biden an early advantage. The media didn't know this?
Ohio, interesting!
Ohio and North Carolina report the mail in and early vote 1st. It will be followed by tabulation of today's in person voting. That is the only reason Biden is ahead in both states right now. You see the effect on the NC race of today's vote- Trump is making up ground quickly now, and will almost certainly win the state by more than 2016.
Virginia, on the other hand- is reversed- they report today's vote first and the mail in vote later- that is the only reason Trump is way ahead right now. There was large mail in vote in the DC surrounding counties- Biden will more than make up for the margin Trump has right now in the count.
Check the NYTimes site- they tell you explicitly how the vote is counted in each state. Some do the mail in vote first- it has been counted as it came in, and then count today's in person vote. It make things confusing if you don't know this.
This is why we love the guy, win or lose.
https://twitter.com/RoscoeBDavis1/status/1323773142716788737
Big Mike
“It’s immoral to call states early for Trump but clever to do it for Democrats.” — Edward R Murrow
Trevor Noah wants to kill me, and all of my neighbors, everybody in the state of Florida, and a lot of Georgians too. Even Sherman didn’t burn Savannah!
https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1323802533295435776
MASSIVE crossover of Democrats voting for Trump.
Therein lies the problem with polling with Trump. They assume registered dems are voting dem.
Only the stupid ones are.
Hi Inga!
I've never been that interested in horse race journalism or election night coverage. My sense for the last several months has been Democrats taking the Senate, Biden winning by a very narrow margin, and Trump to pick up black/Latino votes but lose white votes. I'm not a big believer in election prognostication and would be unsurprised if any or all of these intuitions were dead wrong.
It's been my perspective for a long time that as the US has gotten more democratic and more ethnically diverse since the 1960's, it has become more divided. In addition to the voting rights and immigration laws, the post-war boom was coming to an end. The switch to a neoliberal economic order succeeded in maintaining economic growth but the expense of worsening inequality and domination by an elite cosmopolitan class. Contrary to overhyped fears of collectivism, these people are radical individualists who abhor tradition and support global capitalism.
The reason the cultural left is so unhinged at the moment is because of how thoroughly and quickly they have won. As Tocqueville noted in Democracy in America, "The hatred that men bear to privilege increases in proportion as privileges become fewer and less considerable, so that democratic passions would seem to burn most fiercely just when they have least fuel."
This why the cultural left always thinks we're on the verge of a fascist takeover, and the economic right always thinks we're on the verge of a Leninist totalitarian takeover. Both sides have essentially won. This has led a lot of people to conclude that what America wants is libertarianism (fiscally conservative, socially liberal). Yet, when presented with libertarianism, Americans aren't really interested.
In short, whoever wins, America loses.
Can someone explain the Real Clear Politics Va. numbers:
Called for Biden. With 84% of vote counted, its:
39.8 Biden 58.4 Trump
(84%)
Texas shows Biden ahead by 100,000+-. Most urban (Biden) counties already largely reported.
Trump will take Texas.
Trump crushed it in Alabama. No surprise there. But I expected Tommy T over Doug Jones to be called already. Not yet.
The local news people here are saying that the votes counted so far in Virginia are mostly election-day votes. The much larger number of mail-in and early votes mostly have not been counted yet, and those are expected to favor Biden.
ABC news is reporting that Biden is underperforming with the Black and Latino vote. They discuss this and lean toward the idea that Biden's 1990's votes and Kamala Harris's record as a prosecutor have created an obstacle. (Nothing is said about the possibility that Trump created jobs and worked on criminal justice reform and helped the HBCUs and all this helped minorities.) They look sad. But I think to myself this sadz is an act and that they know that the boxes of votes are waiting out there for later dumps. All the same, I think to myself if Trump does win by keeping his base and expanding into the minority voters then it will be hard for BLM and Antifa to summon their people for riots. Probably the Chinese won't think the minority vote matters and they'll order the riots to go on anyway. But foreigners don't get this country and the riots they order up won't be legit. In short, there is a way for Trump to win without real rioting and he is on track to do it.
FL Hispanics for Trump.....killing it
A quick back of the envelope calculation- Trump wins NC by 200-250K votes when today's vote is finalized. Way to big to worry about late mail in votes, by the way.
On Ohio, the same calculation- taking the initial vote release tonight, then an estimate of how many voted today, I would say Trump equals at least his margin in Ohio that he had in 2016. A large majority of Democrats voted by mail everywhere it was allowed- when those votes are counted first, it looks like Democrats are way ahead. The reverse applies when a state counts today's vote first- see Virginia as the prime example.
Tim in Vermont: “Trevor Noah wants to kill me”
You are changing the subject! Sarah Palin was *targeting* things!
Florida, on the other hand- Republicans almost matched the Democrats in the early vote which was posted the minute the polls closed at 8- I didn't get to catch that number, but I read somewhere that Biden's lead was shockingly small. The entire margin Trump has now is the in person vote from today- right now 330,000 votes -three times what he won by in 2016.
The Virginia numbers.
In Virginia they hold back the Fairfax county numbers and a few other counties up north which are really DC bedroom counties. Everyone there works for .gov. They all vote Dem. So practically the whole state reports and then they bring in the Fairfax and Alexandria votes and, boom, Virginia is blue.
PS The rest of the state should secede over to West Virginia since the Governor and the Legislature only care about these DC bedroom counties.
Patrick: "Who can explain what's going on in ohio?"
The early vote dump put Biden ahead, as expected, with the Trump machine turnout crushing it across the state.
Look at Trumbull county if you want to see how this is really going: a big Biden lead early, duh, but Trump has already flipped it back with other big number red waves on the way.
Trump will take Ohio by 3 to 6 or so.
The same thing is happening with the early returns in all the states: Biden jumps out early based on the buildup of democratical and FakeCon LLR-marxist votes and then that lead gets ground to dust as Election Day voting kicks into high gear.
Very interesting: the one exception to the above "rule" is........Michigan. Where Trump jumped out to an early lead. I'll wait until there is more detailed county by county breakdowns before commenting on that.
n Florida, Trump is winning:
- 5 of 10 Latino voters vs 4 of 10 in 2016
- 3 of 10 non-white voters vs 2 of 10 in 2016
- 5 of 10 white female college graduates vs 6 of 10 in 2016
Seems like Trump's numbers improved with people immune to being called white supremacists and dropped with people who took it to heart.
J. Farmer said...
I'm a nihilist.
We know.
Wheelchair guy (R) wins NC 11th. It rarely hurts to be young and good-looking.
Democrats gain a Senator, thanks Colorado!
Madison Cawthorne wins NC11.
Nice.
It's like a kick right to LLR-lefty C****'s groin.
Biden is doing better in NC than Hillary did.
Inga: "Ohio, interesting!"
Already explained. Just like Texas. Just like GA. Just like FL. Just like NC.
At some point even someone as doltish as you has to start catching on....
.....or not.
Huh. They're un-calling VA. That's... going to make people miserable.
New York Times says NC “Quite likely Trump”
Texas does not look like it’s turning blue.
This looks a lot like 2016.
It is, however, very disheartening that the electorate is not, obviously, going to punish the Democrats for the shutdowns and the violence.
Yes, that is disheartening. Disquieting too.
"At some point even someone as doltish as you has to start catching on....”
She is watching CNN or Fox, so you have to cut her some slack.
320Busdriver: "FL Hispanics for Trump.....killing it"
Democraticals and FakeCon LLR-marxists are already relabeling the Cubanos and Venezuelans who gave Trump his hispanic majority in Miami-Dade and elsewhere "racist white hispanics", because OF COURSE THEY ARE!
Of. Course. They. Are.
@Jeff, except that Trump's lead in Virginia is 340,000 votes, and increasing each time there is an update.
The Blue Balloon is deflating fast.
Achilles: "Biden is doing better in NC than Hillary did."
Again, as expected.
It is astonishing that all the pollsters (Trafalgar/Cahaly, Richard Baris/Big Data, etc) who were the ones who got 2016 correct were the very guys attacked non-stop by LLR-lefty Chuck's magnificent democratical pollster god Nate Silver.
And, once again, Baris and Trafalgar seem to be right on track...again.
Cue shark music:
CNN is walking back the call on Virginia for Biden. Earlier poll trackers pointed out deep blue Fairfax county is underperforming.
So they called it before they knew what was really happening? Whodathunkit?
FYI, I'm catching Richard Baris and his analysis on Steve Bannon's War Room podcast and I have to tell you, Steve Bannon is as much of a microphone hog who asks interminably long "questions" as Sean Hannity.
Ugh.
Well at least Baris comes on and breaks the states down to an extreme granular level and can explain precisely what is going on.....which is easy for him since he had it figured out weeks ago.
I live in one of the bigger cities in Alabama, and I had no problem voting. I walked over to my polling place, went right in, got a ballot, filled it out, and put it in the machine without ever having to stand in a single line. In and out in however long it took me to fill out the ballot.
I expect Tuberville will win, but local media is not reporting any numbers yet, which is probably why they haven't called that race yet.
@Yancey Ward, there was a lot of early voting throughout Virginia. I still think they called this state too soon.
In case you care Drago, I was reading.
Trump now up by 5 in that county.
BTW, Arizona is starting to look okay as well, which means just what it seems like it would.
Which leaves the big 4 midwest states to settle it for all the marbles.
We really do seem to be witnessing in real time the demographic, geographic, class-based realignment of our political parties.
Fascinating.
Nate Silver’s desperate search for ways that Biden could win Florida today, when all day long it looked like it was in the bag for Trump reminded me of the networks refusing to call PA for Trump last time as they feverishly invented the most outlandish scenarios where Hillary could, you know, get 95% of the remaining votes from rural hamlets and factory towns.
And now we see Trump has clawed his way back to within 100,000 votes in Ohio and stand by, cuz there's lots more Trump votes coming your way....
I keep seeing takes that Trump is overperforming in Virginia, e.g. Loudoun County. As Yancey notes above, that's just because the 98 of 99 precincts doesn't include absentee ballots and early votes are backloaded too. Trump supporters are probably deriving false hope from Virginia returns. Not that he was expected to win Virginia, mind, now that civil servants dominate all Northern VA. Trump's doing okay, not that well.
CNN analysts concede that there is no Biden landslide. (9:45 eastern time)
The one concern I have in Ohio would be Erie County.
Trump ahead now in TX and OH. Sorry, Inga.
Stand by in NC. Mecklenburg County (heavy Dem) is done and Trump is about to flip the script there.
Trump up big in Gennessee County (Flint).
Michigan goes Trump unless they can steal it in 5 days.
Some suggestions that heavily GOP York County, just below my Cumberland County in PA has run out of ballots. I can't imagine how that might happen myself, if true it's turnout, and it might be just hearsay, but it does suggest a heavy Republican result. I think PA goes to Trump.
Biden takes China.
The Democrats sold them 1 billion electoral college votes for $1 Trillion.
CNN analysts concede that there is no Biden landslide. (9:45 eastern time)
"It’s just not going to be” a Democratic landslide, Jake Tapper says on CNN.” - ZeroHedge
Shades of 2016.
Trump is going to need to win NC tonight by about 2% to hold off the absentee votes and LLR-lefty-approved democratical fraud votes over the next 9 days.
Bookies Flip To Trump Favorite
BetFair Exchange has flipped its odds to 1.36 Trump (66%) and 2.88 Biden (34%)
The graph is quite amazing
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-election-2020-live-trump-or-biden-there-can-be-only-one
Scroll down.
Between 9:20 and 9:40pm, the betting odds changed drastically in Trump's favor. He went from about 40 percent to over 60 percent. These are people putting large amounts of money on the outcome, and in past elections sharp moves like this on election night have been good indicators of the eventual winner. It now looks like Trump is going to win it, but most of the TV people haven't figured that out yet.
New York Times has North Carolina at Very Likely Trump now.
Today Biden introduced his granddaughter as Beau Biden, his son whose been dead for 5 years. No wonder they kept the senile old fool hidden in the basement.
Trump has an outside shot at Virginia, but not what I would consider a good one. Just based on 2016 vote totals, Biden has at least 300K votes of margin to pick up in Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William, and Alexandria Counties/cities, and that is me being optimistic for Trump. It is more likely to be 450K to be found given the increased turnout. Trump would have to severely cut into the percentages Clinton got in those counties, and nothing supports that happening tonight in Virginia- see Alexandria to understand my point. I think Trump will end losing Virginia by at least 200K votes close to what he lost it last time- he might get it down to 150K depending what is actually left in the rest of the red counties.
@Browndog:
I'm a nihilist.
We know.
With all due respect, you're using a word you don't understand.
And, just like I thought above- Boone County found the missing votes. Trump won it better than in 2016- it is a outer exurb of Cincinnati, by the way.
With essentially 100% of the precincts reporting, Trump has a lead of 195,000 votes, and Gade (R) leads incumbent Warner (D) by 110,000. The close-in (to DC) counties are essentially fully reported.
Whether early and absentee votes pull Biden over the top or not, Virginia may be back to being a purple state.
It’s 7:11pm here in Caliunicornia. I am cautiously stoked.
Trump is now winning the betting markets.
Inga,
I thought you were dead, but I see you are just braindead, supporting the party of rioters and looters
And at this moment, people who care about the world are trying to remember what it was to live through this night, because some day we too may have to do what it takes.
Matt Sablan said...I make no predictions. I have no confidence in anything, even myself. I need a cookie.
Scots whiskey for me - preferably an Islay single malt like Lagavulin. It doesn't give me confidence, but who cares?
I see that Inga is back. What's been going on with you?
Arizona, very interesting!
CNN is walking back the call on Virginia for Biden. Earlier poll trackers pointed out deep blue Fairfax county is underperforming.
Hmmm....
Mike Bird from WSJ is reporting Chinese yuan tanking as returns come in.
Looks like Collins is going to hold her seat, and Tuberville over Jones will cancel out Hickenlooper over Gardner. Will James hold on in Michigan to flip a seat? Can Tillis hold on to hold his seat? And they may need to "un-call" Warner over Gade, even with all the early votes that haven't yet been counted. In Georgia, Loeffler will win a plurality but face a runoff. Republican votes accounted for over 50% of the vote, so should -- eventually -- be a GOP hold. At this point it could be that McConnell will have a larger majority starting in January.
Market futures have swung to positive in last hour
Carlos Osweda, mon sembable, mon frere!
Monsieur Victor!
My friends, insult me all you want! I don't care, I never did.
But don't mess with Carlos. He does not share my sense of humor.
GOD LOVES YOU ALL, trust me on that.
Or don't trust me.
Think back to any given moment in your life, even if you are old.
In that moment, I was not free of physical pain.
AND I DID NOT cARE bECAUSE I ALWAYS KNEW GOD LOVES US ALL, I knew it the moment I was born.
Thanks, Drago - you were the guy with the piece of information I needed to feel happy tonight.
Not for myself, but for a friend of a friend.
Hi Inga. Nice to see you.
"Whether early and absentee votes pull Biden over the top or not, Virginia may be back to being a purple state.”
Drive through VA on I-81 sometime and then ask yourself whether going balls to the wall on gun control was really such a good idea for Democrats right off the bat after taking over.
Aside from his unprecedented accomplishments in his first term, which should be enough alone, it's just astonishing the strength and determination demonstrated by this 74 year old business man in fighting all four years for common Americans in the face of relentless hate and attacks, and then the incredible effort in the last few weeks to engage the American people day after day without rest even after having the Covid at the worst possible time. It's just beyond belief. Who else could or would have done that. And all without the need by him for any of it, including the salary or the fame.
Why would a man with everything work so hard to get a job he doesn't need, that doesn't pay, and brings him endless attacks and derision, and has likely cost him at least a billion dollars? He wants to be great, by doing good for common Americans and his country as a whole, and be know for it eventually. I like that motivation and goal.
Yuan is tanking.
Fun meter is pegged
Thanks to Jeff for a link to betting odds. When I went there at 10:20 or so, it was Trump 75%.
Blogger J. Farmer said...
@Browndog:
With all due respect, you're using a word you don't understand.
Educate me. All ears-
Ranked voting lost in Mass, I'm slightly surprised, as there was no money and no ads for No on Tv. On the other hand, the yes ads were very annoying and nonsensical. They alleged that ranked voting would make party less important and hold politicians more accountable. As near as I can tell, it's designed to make the people that vote green party's vote still count for the democrat...
Trump is winning Lackawanna County, PA by 20 points.
20. Points.
Unbelievably good for Trump.
In Erie County PA, Trump is winning it by 18%. That's a county that voted for obama/biden twice, including by 16% in 2012.
Trump flipped it by 2% in 2016 and now, now, Trump is winning it by 18%.
Too funny. Inga just moves from one early absentee voting state to the next, without a single thought to every other other comment she wrote here tonight. At this point, I might put a bet on Corey Gardner- Inga seems to be a contrary indicator for Democratic hopes tonight.
Betting on elections is kind of like betting on war. How cynical do you have to be?
"With essentially 100% of the precincts reporting, Trump has a lead of 195,000 votes, and Gade (R) leads incumbent Warner (D) by 110,000. The close-in (to DC) counties are essentially fully reported.
Whether early and absentee votes pull Biden over the top or not, Virginia may be back to being a purple state."
Maybe a reaction to Northam's wild overreach.
Inga said...
Arizona, very interesting!
Arizona is in the process of turning into a blue shithole, thanks to the Californians who have moved here, bid up housing prices and brought their dysfunctional government with them.
Fuck 'em all.
Big Mike makes a good point. Even if Biden wins, Dems will be hugely disappointed ifthe Senate stays Rep.
I'm a nihilist.
We know.
With all due respect, you're using a word you don't understand.
What, he doesn't understand the words "we know"?
The senate will be Democratic. Without the senate, Trump is useless. Let Biden have it, let him take responsibility for his socialist compadres.
Hey, Farmer!
Trump underperforming in Waukesha County! Milwaukee County won’t be coming in until the wee hours of the morning.
How the hell is Florida not being called for Trump? An almost 4% lead with 91% votes in.
So at this point it's still if Trump wins, not when- but if Trump wins- how much further will Democrat dictators like Cuomo and Whitmer punish us for not voting the right way?
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