... perhaps by tomorrow's sunrise we will know the answer. I hope so! I'd like a crisply clear result to come into focus as soon as possible, and I'd like gracious winners and losers, all united in love for our beautiful country.
Please use the comments section to discuss the election doings. We'll be moderating comments through quickly over the course of the evenings. I have seen a few requests to take moderation off, but you don't know what you are asking for. It's nice of you to have a positive idea of what could happen, but I have the real-life experience of seeing what the bad people will do. You'll have to accept the only substitute I have to offer — quick approval of comments over the course of the evening.
Please don't talk about the moderation problem in the comments. Talk about the elections!
पोस्ट्स
३११ टिप्पण्या:
«सर्वात जुने ‹थोडे जुने 311 पैकी 201 – 311One last time on Virginia- as of right now, Fairfax County and Richmond City have not reported a large block of their early vote. Just based on 2016 numbers, I anticipate that Biden will pick up about 180K minimum of margin in Fairfax County, and other 75K in Richmond. Trump's lead right now is only 189K. Now, there is other counties in the state that Trump can pick up votes from, but I don't see how all them combined can overcome that 75K gap I can see just based on 2016 turnout, and it is likely that Biden adds 300K from this point. By the way, Loundon did dump their early vote, and it was much larger margin for Biden than Clinton got in 2016. I just think Virginia's race is over.
This is a really fun night so far
And I would love to see Warner lose in Virginia, but Gade's margin right now is less than Trump's- so I see no chance of him winning the Senate seat. That is just how I see it- the numbers are just not there.
Watching Steve Bannon’s YouTube show.
He’s now predicting a Trump victory, but by a very small margin, followed by weeks of lawfare by the Democrats.
Donna Shalala bites the dust...
Browndog, 8:26:
"I'm a nihilist."
Nihilist? Fuck me.
You know, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
"Mr. Cosell, do you have any comment?"
"Down goes Biden, down goes Biden"
tim in vermont said...
"Whether early and absentee votes pull Biden over the top or not, Virginia may be back to being a purple state.”
Drive through VA on I-81 sometime and then ask yourself whether going balls to the wall on gun control was really such a good idea for Democrats right off the bat after taking over.
Yep. I've been expecting / hoping that every single gun using Democrat / non voter would get so incensed by what the Dems have been polling, that the State would flip this year.
It's nice to see taht I was at least in the right ballpark on that one.
I'm bummed NC was so close, but glad that the good guys appear to be winning
@Yancey Ward, Virginia is boiling down to the early and absentee votes (which I don't think have been counted) at this point. Trump's lead is with the close-in (to DC) counties essentially fully reported is 195,000. Is that enough? We shall see.
Nasdaq futures halted...@up 4%....yesssss!!!
It's fun to think my vote in deep-blue Arlington, VA may not have been a complete waste of time.
Not holding my breath, though. The Fairfax-Arlington-Alexandria axis of evil is hard to overcome.
90% chance R’s hold the Senate, which means the Hunter Biden’s laptop is very likely going to get a thorough going over even if Trump loses (Heaven forfend!)
I forgot -- McSally is probably going to lose, so James has to win.
Looks like three Congressional seats in Virginia will flip blue to red, with two others where the Republican had been leading handily earlier in the evening now pretty safely in the hands of the Democrat incumbent. How are other states doing?
The refusal of all networks to call FLA with 98% vote counted, makes me wonder if there's a joint conspiracy to maximize advertising eyeballs. Having withdrawn from cable channels 6 months ago, I'm appalled at the sheer volume of advert breaks, must be 10 or more every break.
"BetFair Exchange has flipped its odds to 1.36 Trump (66%) and 2.88 Biden (34%)"
Hilarious: they have Kamala at the bottom with 0.1%.
Cahaly @ Trafalgar looks to have cracked the code. It was fun to see him totally dis Nate a Silver this weekend..
Drive through VA on I-81 sometime and then ask yourself whether going balls to the wall on gun control was really such a good idea for Democrats right off the bat after taking over.
@tim, I had been thinking the same thing. Trouble is that right now, under the "leadership" of LaPierre, the NRA is not nearly so good at getting out the vote as it used to be. I've been a member for a while now, but time to look around at other pro-Second Amendment organizations.
Donna Shalala turned out of her seat in Congress.
Looks like MN actually enjoys burning metropolises. The early results could not be more different in WI.
I don't think Farmer is a nihilist. I think he's a pessimist.
@Browndog:
Educate me. All ears-
Nihilism is a kind of radical skepticism. It says nothing can be known, nothing has value or purpose, and nothing has any meaning. It rejects belief systems of all kinds moral, political, or otherwise. The disposition of the nihilist is not pessimism but indifference. The structural forces that I think are pushing the world closer towards nihilism are exactly what I am complaining about. If I were a nihilist, what would I have to complain about?
CNN is walking back the call on Virginia for Biden. Earlier poll trackers pointed out deep blue Fairfax county is underperforming
Fox called VA too early as well. Fox increasingly sucks. Chris Wallace can eat a bag of dicks.
hawkeyejb: you may be right that the Senate will be Dem. Can you put specific races out there to prove (well maybe not prove, but indicate) this? NC seems to be Rep.
Francisco D,
Excellent beverage choice. I still have to finish off the half empty summer gin bottles - I don't retire them to the basement - before I go the the fall / winter scotch whisky. Need to clear off some bar top space. Hopefully tomorrow will let me invite folks over to finish off the gin and a couple bottles of bubbly, in celebration, and create room for my Scotch (and Irish), plus Drambuie. Nothing like a nice fire and a glass of Drambuie to complete an evening.
Flipped over to NBC. Andrea Mitchell sounds about as clear as Biden. I remember when she sounded sharp, but this version is just rambling and incoherent.
Trump is killing it in many aspects in this election-
Yet, it feels like he's under-performing.
No worries. Michigan and Minnesota will carry the day, but we cannot keep fighting for our lives every four years.
Gotta stop these commies form teaching your children to hate you, hate themselves, and hate their country.
How obvious does it have to be to smarten up?
Former Loudoun County, VA resident (VA 10) now Chesterfield County VA resident (VA 7)...sadly unsurprised about NOVA voting, but watching what's happening state-wide with Trump and locally with Spanberger with interest.
Republicans keep the Senate with 53, at least. James wins in Michigan.
No way the Democrats pack the Court this year.
Big Mike. Go the NYTimes Virginia Results section- find Fairfax County up there near DC- they are missing 75% of the 2016 vote. In Richmond, it is even worse. Those two alone will overcome Trump's edge by at least 75K, and likely by 125K. The numbers are just not there. Sorry.
https://www.facebook.com/JaySekulow/videos/368012011297102
I have seen this show before, by the way- Trump led most of the night in Virginia, but then the DC counties report late, and he suddenly went from leading by 120K to being behind by almost 300K. Now, if he can somehow gain some ground on 2016's numbers in Fairfax, like say 10% of margin, then he has a real chance to win the state, but Alexandria has already reported over 80% of their vote, and Biden's margin is already better than Clinton's was.
Warner should be indicted....regardless
Known Unknown said...
"With essentially 100% of the precincts reporting, Trump has a lead of 195,000 votes, and Gade (R) leads incumbent Warner (D) by 110,000. The close-in (to DC) counties are essentially fully reported.
Whether early and absentee votes pull Biden over the top or not, Virginia may be back to being a purple state."
Where did this come from? I cannot find it.
Something Trumpy this way comes
https://twitter.com/katewerk/status/1323704190686826498
Arizona!
"It says nothing can be known, nothing has value or purpose, and nothing has any meaning. “
Lot’s of people like to pretend that they don’t have a subconscious and that evolution never happened, and it never bred values into our brains that help us survive. You can be a nihilist, but my bet is that evolution disfavors it.
You want to see what political realignment might look like? Check out these numbers from Starr County, Texas:
2016 Trump 2224 Clinton 9289;
2020 Trump 8224 Biden 9099
The county is 96% Hispanic. In next door Hidalgo County, Trump lost in 2016 by 70K votes, tonight he won't lose it by more than 40K. Trump has wrought big changes tonight- whether the Republican Party of Chuck can hold on to the changes, I don't know.
@YW, no disagreement about how VA tabs votes, but while statewide voting may not go for Trump and Gade in the end, it looks like VA will see a couple of House seats flip.
Inga: "Arizona, very interesting!"
hawkeyedjb: "Arizona is in the process of turning into a blue shithole, thanks to the Californians who have moved here, bid up housing prices and brought their dysfunctional government with them.
Fuck 'em all."
2 key factors impacting the Arizona race tonight
1) Most recent California refugees into AZ (cultural migrants) are actually trending conservative as you would expect, its the waves that came in the few years before that (economic migrants) who came over due to tech companies moving into AZ out of CA and those cats brought their lefty politics that ruined CA with them
2) **Much more important: Trump is behind about 7 to 8 points right now, and wouldn't you know it, the hard core McCainiacs represent about 7 to 8% of the vote in AZ and they have never forgiven nor forgotten how much they hated Trump's attacks against the traitorous McCain who personally shopped around the hoax russia collusion dossier
That about sums that up.
Trump would be out of the race in AZ completely if he hadn't improved his vote totals with hispanics and, also interestingly, mormons in AZ, who represent about 5% of the electorate.
@Yancey, I hadn't seen your 9:32 and 9:33 comments when I submitted my comment at 9:40. All I can say is that the close-in counties are not the only place where there was a lot of early voting. So we shall see. I have a feeling you're right, but forgive me, please, if I hope you aren't.
Trump is killing it in many aspects in this election-
Yet, it feels like he's under-performing.
Trump is doing very well, but it looks like he lost some votes in suburban counties.
I get the feeling that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are the unacknowledged factor this year. It seems like people who voted for them last time went with Biden this year and enabled him to better Clinton's showing in some counties.
TwoAndAHalfCents said...
Yeah, my husband and I have been remarking on the incoherence of Andrea all night.
@Achilles, I was at USA Today. Mouse over the counties to see how much has been reported.
Alas, I think Yancey Ward is going to be right.
Tdocer,
There is a good chance Freitas flips the Spanberger seat. The others that are ahead, are more iffy, imo. Maybe Virginia 2 can be won by the Republican to flip, too- Trump did a lot better in that district this time than last.
Trump still needs one of the upper midwest states for sure, and maybe two, but I think Arizona is just like Ohio and NC- a big early lead from absentee vote that will quickly vanish as today's voters get counted.
Arizona, very interesting!
All the young voters want free stuff.
I blame the parents, and grandparents.
Oh, and the schools supported by those parents and grandparents.
J. Farmer said...
Nihilism is a kind of radical skepticism. It says nothing can be known, nothing has value or purpose, and nothing has any meaning. It rejects belief systems of all kinds moral, political, or otherwise. The disposition of the nihilist is not pessimism but indifference. The structural forces that I think are pushing the world closer towards nihilism are exactly what I am complaining about. If I were a nihilist, what would I have to complain about?
Thank-you for your response. I agree with your definition for the most part, apart from the most important- the human aspect.
I admire your intellect, but frustrated by your propensity to tie yourself in knots, always ending in the same place-
Nothing matters, I don't care.
I wish you the best. Sincerely.
@tim in vermont:
Lot’s of people like to pretend that they don’t have a subconscious and that evolution never happened, and it never bred values into our brains that help us survive. You can be a nihilist, but my bet is that evolution disfavors it.
I agree and think that's true of skepticism generally. It's something you can discuss abstractly, but nobody can really be a skeptic.
Apparently Trump made Biden supporters wave Che flags around in Miami.
In the sky flying above my neighborhood in southern Montgomery County, MD and the surrounding areas is a very noisy police helicopter. You know, the kind with incredibly bright searchlights? It looks like they're on maneuvers, since I'm not seeing any other police presence in the neighborhood.
My guess as to what's going on? They're out doing practice runs just in case the shit hits the fan, urban unrest-wise, in the next few days.
@lurker21: I know I can’t speak for everyone, but I voted Johnson in ‘16 and for Trump today.
Arizona looks just like North Carolina did just as the polls closed- it is the mail in vote that was counted before now plus some early in-person vote. Trump should be able to easily overcome that deficit just on the people who voted today.
Well my bete noire lost in North Georgia. Hoping for Trump, but satisfying already. Why does Steve Bannon have such greasy long hair?
Twitter is putting a warning on OANN’s call of Florida for Trump.
https://twitter.com/OANN/status/1323834024092037123
Jack would shit if Citizens United ever got overturned.
O-H! I-O!
The McCain bashing — a staple of Althouse regulars — might well have cost Trump AZ. Which might cost him the election — too soon to say. But not impossible.
And there is definitely a bias in the calling of states tonight- a big one. The media are definitely trying to create a narrative that Biden was winning but had it stolen the next day. They are just morons at this point.
TRUMP MFERS!
Nate Silver is a BITCH
At 9:15 PM Pacific, it looks like Trump's going to end up with 293 Electoral votes.
It's shortly after midnight eastern, and the commentators on PBS look absolutely desolate. Clearly they must think this is going for Trump.
If Trump wins, he needs to push HARD for a foolproof voter ID.
I am a privacy nut by nature, but even I will be glad to verify my existence 27 different ways to make sure that votes are not stolen.
I can't believe moderation is on.
This site is kinda lame now.
Surprise surprise surprise - the election is coming down to the Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee machines, all of which seem to be having mysterious problems in getting their votes counted. Of course, the Philly machine has done most pre-work to grease a vote manufacturing operation. Maybe Wisconsin and Michigan can keep the election clean.
If Biden loses the Democrats shouldn't feel bad. They ran a basement dwelling old man suffering from dementia, a history of corruption, who was credibly accused of rape, and made a contest of it. Yay Democrats.
The latest I've ever stayed up to watch results was about 0200-0230. Will I beat that tonight? What's your predictions for a call?
@Browndog:
I admire your intellect, but frustrated by your propensity to tie yourself in knots, always ending in the same place-
Nothing matters, I don't care.
Thank you for the kind words.
Clearly, I care. Otherwise, I wouldn't waste my time thinking about it or talking about it. And I have never said anything remotely close to "nothing matters." Elections undoubtedly have consequences, but elected officials do not have free reign to implement an agenda. Their ambitions are constrained by a number of systemic forces. Sociopolitical change is too complex an endeavor to ever really hinge on any single election. More often it tends to result from the accumulation of numerous small changes over time or following a big external shock to the system.
Aloha Inga, best wishes to you.
Is Pennsylvania this red?
Trump up 9% 53.7-44.6 with 64% counted?
As of 1.50 am there are a number of states that have not. Suspicious activity in Philly. So far it looks like the Senate will remain Republican and the House Democrat. It looks like Trump will pull it off but no doubt lawfare will commence and will be intense. I hope it's not a repeat of 2000.
DJT just announced the news of his victory!
And exited to Sousa's Washington Post March
ROFL ....Genius!
DJT Delivered!
Sure this won't be seen until Althouse gets up and clears the comments.
Trump could well lose now. I think he will PA and likely win Michigan, too. However, Georgia is getting tight as I write this. I think his margin in GA is a bit too large to overcome given what is actually left, but I wouldn't give it more than 60-70% at this point without better data- I think where maybe people are misjudging Georgia is that they counted most of the mail-in vote and it was posted early in the evening- what vote is left is more likely, everywhere, to be the votes from Tuesday's in person vote- at least that is my view. Arizona will be a reach, but Trump has a better chance of winning Nevada than he does Arizona- both will close, likely within 20,000 votes either way.
The other thing is that almost all the big cities seem to have stopped counting for the night- my opinion is that that they know Biden has lost Pennsylvania and Michigan, and maybe Wisconsin again (Wisconsin will probably come down to 10-20K vote margin either way). The Democrats have better data than I do at this point in all three states- they have to win one of them for certain, and will have win two if they can't take both Georgia and Arizona. If Trump wins all three, he has won the election no matter what happens in Georgia and Arizona. My feeling is that they stopped counting to buy some time. I don't think it will make a difference unless they can get people voting this morning and afternoon as they count, but the Trump team isn't going to allow that to happen.
Any way, I am off to bed for few hours sleep. I didn't think
Trump has won the election, now he has to win the vote count.
This has to be the weirdest... or most manipulated... election in my lifetime. What do I mean? If you look at the map at https://hotair.com/election/2020-results, Trump has this with 290 electoral votes. The states they haven't called have Trump with such a large margin that it is statistically almost impossible for Biden to win.
Some examples:
Trump has a 700K+ lead in PA, with 80% of the vote counted, and Biden would have to win around 75% of the remaining vote to beat him... yet they haven't called PA yet.
Trump is up 140K in GA and 80K in NC with each state reporting more than 99% of the votes counted. If Biden got every single one of the last 1% of the votes in these states, he couldn't win... yet they haven't called either of these states for Trump yet.
In MI Trump is up by 180K votes, and there's only 120K votes left uncounted at the most, meaning Biden cannot win... yet MI hasn't been called yet.
In WI Trump is up 110K votes, with at most 42K votes left, meaning Biden can't win... yet WI hasn't been called yet.
And, AK still hasn't been called but Trump is beating Biden 2 to 1... but he doesn't need AK to win the EC and the presidency.
The only reason... the ONLY reason for not concluding the election is that they're going to try to find the votes, or the reason, to negate what is obvious... Trump has WON re-election. This is going to end up in court, and unlike 2000 where the fight was all about Florida, this is going to go to at least the 5 states. This looks like the plan all along... to sabotage the election and muddy things up so badly that it would be difficult to conclude who actually won, so the Democrats can throw it to the House. If that happens, I worry it won't end in the courts.
America has long had a tradition of abiding by the results of elections, and of not playing games in the courts to muddy the results. That's why Richard Nixon did not challenge the outcomes in Illinois or Texas back in 1960 when there was clear evidence of rampant vote fraud that cost him the election. If that is over (and this is just a continuation of the games that Democrats started back in 2000), then I fear for our country.
I saw Trumps statement. I agree with him entirely that this appears (blatantly, obviously) to be a fraud being perpetrated on the American people, and an enormous embarrassment. And it is entirely the fault, in the first degree, of the election officials of the several states and cities involved, and more so to that cabal that organized it and put these people up to all these criminal and traitorous acts.
I have been saying for years now that your political institutions, among so many other of your institutions, are irremediably corrupt, and, more so, hostile to your people. Well, here you have it, in the open. You simply cannot have a democratic process in this situation, where it has to be conducted against such malign powers.
I offer you all my sympathy, for what its worth.
This is vastly worse than 2000, both in its massive scale, and, in context, as back then all was more or less right with the world, relatively speaking. It certainly isn't, now, in all sorts of ways, and your country and its leadership are going to be in chaos for - months, probably, and if Trump does yet fail, what sort of fragile carnival of tyranny and kleptomania will that give you?
Is this that very moment of crisis I have been dreading? Or is it the next step down to that crisis? I knew for a very long time that something very bad was coming. I don't like that I feel that I know these things. It is a curse.
It is absolutely unacceptable to stop counting like the Democrats have. States with Republican governors got their fucking states counted, and quickly at that. Democrats aren't this incompetent- they are trying to figure a way to steal the election. There really is no other explanation at this point.
I stayed up very late (3:00am) looking at a "normal" US election, and I woke up (late) to an Allen Drury novel. One of the less comforting sequels probably. I don't want us to be in an Allen Drury novel.
But here we are.
Looks like the election comes down to Georgia and Michigan. Trump has to win both, in my opinion. I think he will win Michigan, but I am not sure about Georgia at all.
CBC calls it for Trump
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/us/2020/results/
That’s right, the CBC. Biden campaign didn’t think to put plants there.
Wisconsin is lost for Trump. Biden won it. There is still 10% vote out in Milwaukee according to the NYTimes, and while Trump will probably pick up net votes across the rest of the state, it won't be enough if most of it is uncounted mail in vote. Biden also needs to win one of the following states: Michigan, Georgia, or Pennsylvania. I think Georgia is the best bet at this point- the margin is the smallest vs what is left in the state. Michigan is an outside shot, but Wayne County is pretty much all that is left with that kind of vote, and I don't think Biden can win it by nearly enough.
50/50. I thought this would be callable alot earlier, but it is down to basically two states- Michigan and Georgia. Michigan isn't a surprise, but Georgia sure is. Right now, I would give the edge to Trump in Michigan 75%. Georgia, though, looks like a tossup right now.
I remember the day I began to doubt the media narrative on Hispanics and the border. I was buying some vegetables at a stand in western Palm Beach County and Spanish language TV was on, and they were showing footage from the border of just awful shit, and at that point I knew that the immigrants that are here legally are not seeing this issue in the way the Democrats are trying to frame it.
I now think Biden will win. The lead in Michigan appears to have dropped into the danger zone for Trump - went from up 240K to up only 70k. Not sure it was Wayne County dump of votes, but even if it was, the 70K will probably not be enough since Wayne County likely isn't done. Trump must win Michigan, or he needs to pull out Arizona and hang onto to Georgia. Looking too much like drawing to an inside straight to my eyes.
Biden's campaign person took a lot of flak for suggesting Biden had a path without either Florida or Pennsylvania, but she might well be proven right today. That is it- I have to get some sleep.
Comment from the UK
"President Biden, see these two buttons, the one on the left is the nuclear one and the one on the right is to call your nurse. Got it?"
Here is an interesting take that Obama’s new memoire sort of proves that he didn’t write Dreams From My Father. Obama says in the new one that he never learned to sail because his family couldn’t afford it, but Dreams is full of nautical metaphors, and you know who served in the Merchant Marine? Bill Ayers.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/obama_launches_new_memoir_without_help_of_first_mate_ayers.html
What's happening is this. The states certify the Presidential election in each state and that can take a long time. It came to be understood that you could project the winner in each state. If you know the number of votes cast and you know how many have voted for each candidate you can predict whether a candidate will maintain a lead. A 10 vote lead may fluctuate when 10,000 votes are left. A ten thousand vote lead cannot be overcome when 10,000 votes are left because the votes will not all go to one candidate. And the projections can be more refined than that. A 10,000 vote lead cannot be overcome if 30,000 votes are left even if the votes are in an area where the the leading candidate is only getting 40% of the votes because the 30,000 votes will divide 18,000 - 12,000. The leading candidate will have 12,000 added to his 10,000 and the trailing candidate 18,000 added but this will not catch the leading candidates 22,000. This is complicated and in a Presidential election needs to be done quickly for 50 states in order to "call" the election on election night. It came to be understood that the news channels had the information gathering ability and math skills to correctly project the winner in each state. The news channels would "call" the winner in each state and add the totals and then "call" the election.
In 2016 and again in 2020 the news channels, biased, bought and hating began to refuse to "call" states for Trump late at night when the call meant he would be seen as the winner of the election nationwide. They stopped using a standard procedure and simply refused to "call" when the standard procedure they always used would make Trump the acknowledged President on November 3, 2020. They essentially abdicated the role of "calling" the election. And they have not acknowledged that their abdication nor its cause which is their bias against Trump. The consequence is division and confusion. This is what they want for America. Using the standard procedures for "calling" the election Trump has declared he has won. The numbers bear him out. But the news channels are saying that we their viewers must wait till the election is certified even though the news channels collected ad revenue for putting on a big show on election night, a show which had no reason for existing except the promise that the news media would "call" the election using a standard procedure. What they actually did is called "bait and switch." It will hurt the country today but as the bait and switch tactic they used comes to be appreciated it will end them as journalists. It will make evident their change in news-whores, pimped by whoever owns the media they work for. As happened last night.
No such luck on the crisp clear result, sadly. Though right now, I'd have to say Biden is looking much better than he was last night. Basically, they both have to win every state they are currently leading in, which will be an easier task for Biden.
RCP has N. Carolina, Georgia and Penn. with Trump ahead by large margins.
I have predicted a large amount of vote fraud. Let's see.
Did you purposely stop the number of comments in this thread at 270 last night?
There's still time to vote in Pennsylvania.
System types - vote by mail won't work.
Women - vote by mail is fine.
How do you count all of NJ mail in ballots in a minute?? The AP called it for Biden at 8:01 pm, when the polls closed at 8 pm....No machines were used...all mail in. Bogus.
"Did you purposely stop the number of comments in this thread at 270 last night?"
Ha ha. Very funny.
All is proceeding as I expected, though not as I hoped. We will have Biden/Harris as POTUS. PA can continue counting until Biden/Harris gets enough votes to be declared the winner, then the counting will cease.
I'm going to focus on the four good years we've had with POTUS Trump at the helm. Will be surprised if he does not run in 2024.
As of 6:30 AM it looks as though it’s going to come down to Michigan, where Trump is not ahead beyond the margin of fraud. This election is going to make 2000 look normal.
Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, and Wisconsin voted to keep the home fires burning. Or their city downtowns anyway.
Yancey Ward said...Biden also needs to win one of the following states: Michigan, Georgia, or Pennsylvania. I think Georgia is the best bet at this point- the margin is the smallest vs what is left in the state. Michigan is an outside shot
PA looks out of reach for Biden, which is great because it's the messiest in terms of ballot security. NC and GA both look out of reach too based on Trump's lead and remaining votes. Looking at the current situation on RCP, MI is looking good for Biden to overtake--it's a must win that is really tight and the numbers from around Detroit are coming in for Biden by margins that would choke a horse.
At this moment, I think Biden takes MI and, therefore, the election.
n 2016 and again in 2020 the news channels,
The first time I remember this is the second GWB election in Ohio, when it was obvious GWB had won but the Kerry people didn't want it called, so it wasn't.
>>There's still time to vote in Pennsylvania.
Don't worry, they are voting like mad to overcome Trump's lead.
Gosh darn.
Trump's final EV totals range from 216 (losing all remaining except Alaska) to 267 (winning Alaska, Georgia, NC, and Penn).
I hope the senate results stay at just -1 R. I think they will.
House seems like R's will win some seats, but not enough for majority.
If Trump loses, the US House remains D, and the senate is 51R-49D, do you know who will be the most powerful person in the country ? Susan Collins.
I think that Trump has won and the news channels think so and that is why they are refusing to "call" the election. They have been running a show every election night for as long as I can remember based on their ability to "call" the election correctly before all the votes are counted by the state authorities. But now suddenly last night the news channels started whining and saying they couldn't "call" the election and we have to wait for the states to certify the vote. And why can't the news channels "call" the election in their little scenario? Because of the mail-in vote. They are claiming they can't analyze the mail-in vote as they can the in-person vote. And to me, that suggests that they are claiming not to know how many mail-in votes each state has, especially in battleground states going for Trump at the moment. Otherwise the news channels would have figured out the math on how to "call" the mail-in vote. So as I see it what is needed is to pin down the states the news channels haven't called on exactly how many mail-in votes each state had when the polls closed in that state. That way we will know how many shoe boxes of votes they add later on - if any shoe boxes are added.
As I see it the news channels claimed to be able to "call" elections and held shows last night whose purpose was to "call" the election and then, with the ad revenue safely in their pockets, the news channels suddenly began saying that they couldn't "call" this election - "Wait for the state to certify." Bait and switch. Why do news channels hold election night shows if they can't "call" elections? Actually I think they can analyze the mail-in and at present it gives the election to Trump. I think the news channels always intended to refuse to call the election for Trump if he won because they did the same in 2016. But I also think that there is a new element in all this which is a large minority-workers vote for Trump. They have to dismiss all those voters and it will be noted. And we, his supporters, we know what's being done. It's a new situation, the republic in the digital age with globalizers trying to sell us to China, but here's something not new. Trump and his supporters will not go gentle to that good night.
Woke up this morning, refreshed my 270towin.com electoral map and it looks like they are claiming Biden won. NPR coverage starts off "After falsely claiming victory last night ..." Like I said, whatever Trump said, that would be the narrative. It looks like cooler heads aren't so sure who won. Going to conserve some of my data plan and turn on the TV.
If the Republicans hold the Senate, and SCOTUS holds that the individual mandate is severable from the ACA, then the timing of the Barrett confirmation will seem like a lot less of a big deal.
It’s sure looking like Biden has won it. Oh well, the Democrats have had their majority in the House shaved significantly, and wasted uncounted millions trying to take the Senate with little success, but it looks like we are going to have the first POTUS in the pay of the ChiComs since Bill Clinton.
“Blogger cubanbob said...
The sun will come out tomorrow no matter who wins. Will the day stay sunny and bright, that depends on whether or not Depends Biden loses.”
Well, the sun will continue to come long after humanity has perished from the earth. ”Always happy and bright!”
The Harris Administration is going to suffer from severely clipped wings. Pelosi is going to be fighting for her political life, and Biden is going to get his place in a nice care home very soon.
Big Tech managed to steal an election by withholding all news unfavorable to their candidate from the majority of Americans. Don’t look for Democrats to be hoping to overturn Citizens United anytime soon.
And there is a realigned Republican Party with no place for Chuck and his ilk positioned to win national elections.
Corruption ...the big winner
"...it was obvious GWB had won but the Kerry people didn't want it called, so it wasn't."
The accommodation goes back to the 1980s, when the Dems didn't want to be associated with red even in alternating years.
I see no end to polarization. Companies like Google and Facebook are going to have to forcibly squelch it. But the goal to become more like China and has been for quite some time.
If Mr. Biden wins, I'll console myself with the fact that we got a solid conservative on the USSC and, it appears, R's will hold the Senate. The delays in counting votes in Democrat run states/cities is unconscionable. It is also what I've come to expect.
It is a drama beyond everyone's imagination. Everyone deserves it, perhaps this is a historic election with many established records. Wishing everyone good health
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