Biden leads Trump by 46% to 41% among likely voters surveyed, a shade better than his 4-point advantage last month. For the second poll in a row, Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen was backed by 4%.... The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 4.2%
९ ऑक्टोबर, २०२०
In Wisconsin, the libertarian is polling at 4%. Very strange, considering how crucial the Biden/Trump choice is here.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports on the new Marquette poll:
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Jorgensen is a Russian spy.
The Libertarians relish in taking close Senate or Gov or House elections away from GOP. But on the Presidential level, it works out differently:
1. 1968 - George Wallace won 13%, taking votes from Dem Humphrey, giving Rep Nixon a razor thin win.
2. 1980, John Anderson won 10%, taking votes from Dem Jimmy Carter, giving Rep Reagan an even bigger win.
3. 1992, Ross Perot won 19%, taking votes from Bush 1, giving Clinton the victory.
4. 2000, Ralph Nader won 3%, taking votes from Gore (particularly from the Denny's Early Bird Special crowd in Florida), giving Bush 2 a razor thin victory.
By my count, that's 3 GOP wins, 1 Dem win -- due to these dastardly 3rd parties.
Did y'all know I was an amateur historian? I taught Poly Sci for years at Whatsamatta U.
I think that's the embarrassed Trump voters deciding maybe not this time. Or lying.
I've thought of voting 3rd this time but I just never do that. As I suspected last time, the whole Establishment will fight him tooth and nail, and even his own appointees drag their feet. If Trump wins big this time (not likely) he might get that much more paranoid and erratic.
We must submit to our elite governing caste! Or a carefully groomed and articulate figurehead like the last guy.
Lots of people hate both major candidates. And the reality of politics is, no matter how crazy Joe Biden may feel he needs to sound on the campaign trail, if he wins, he's going to be a "go along to get along" moderate in office. He may throw some slush money at the left-wing loonies, but he won't let them write policy. The activist base is always jilted.
Guess Trump better make another stop and make his case. Trump is much better for libertarian ideas than Biden, but he isn't libertarian. He's no more entitled to the Libertarian vote than Joe (My advisors tell me I'm FOR fracking this week) Biden is entitled to the Green vote.
The 4% Libertarian (note the Big L) is pure anti-Trump, so logically, the vote belongs to Biden. Now let me take my tongue from my cheek because I made that very same stupid mistake last time.
Nobody believes these polls.
Half the people responding just want to keep BLM from throwing a rock through their window.
The poll is also a lot closer than they were in 2016 when Trump won Wisconsin by over 3%.
AA - what's strange is that you're citing polls like they are honest- GIGO? I don't believe any poll today tells the truth. How do I know this? Well look at the campaign events put on by President Trump vs. the Biden team. Please don't use the MSM narrative because Democrats are afraid to attend these rallies due to Covit it's not a good measure. LOL - so Republicans don't care about their health for political reasons. But there's more evidence. If you look at the same rallies and count the online views (not a Covit issue) the differences are massive. President Trump’s last campaign event was in freezing cold Duluth, Minnesota on September 30. He had a massive crowd but he had an even bigger online presence. Bloomberg reported 779,000 viewers of the event on their site. FOX News reported 1.1 million viewers. Right Side Broadcasting reported 175,000 online watching the event on two different streams. At Biden’s event in Phoenix, with his VP candidate Harris, the Biden camp showed about 8 participants inside the event. FOX Business reported 16,000 viewers online viewing the event. The Biden campaign site showed 19,000 viewers of the 30 minute event. PBS showed 34,000 viewers. This just goes on at every campaign stop. In this one example, President Trump had nearly 2.5 million views. Biden had 77,500 views. Biden could only muster 3% of the views online compared to that of President Trump. The Biden campaign is in serious trouble. But if you still have love for the MSM on polls - what about what "Jack Posobiec tweeted = "...Interesting Trump is actually running slightly ahead of where he was in the RCP Battleground Average in 2016 at this point..." So 25 days till the election Biden is ahead of Trump on the RCP battleground polls by 4.6% vs. Clinton, at the same time frame, of 5.1%. That's with ridiculous polls of double digit leads for Biden - LOL. What I'm saying for the past 4 Presidential elections the pollsters have essentially been co-opted as part of the political process not to provide reasonable data but to be cheerleaders for one side - Democrats.
Just a thought...
Trump has been portrayed negatively by the press and lefty pols so strongly and long that many are voting against Trump. After watching Biden they may still be voting against Trump, but Biden is scary. Hence third party.
The Libertarian candidates always poll about 4-5 times the vote they actually get. 2016 was the only exception, and that 4-5% that Johnson and Egg McMuffin got combined was almost all NeverTrumpers. I don't think Jorgenson is going to get more than 1% anywhere outside the mountain west this election.
Pollsters are doing a much better job at burying or just omitting the important information.
This one's flaws- 'registered' voters, not likely voters...and if anyone can tell the group where they hid the data on political affiliation...
Fake news until then...
Carol I agree, I think its people "parking" their Trump vote. I would guess 75% of those are actually going Trump but don't want to admit it to a pollster; I would be shocked if the actual vote was more than 1%.
2. 1980, John Anderson won 10%, taking votes from Dem Jimmy Carter, giving Rep Reagan an even bigger win.
speaking as someone who canvased for John Anderson; i don't know ANYONE that voted for John, that considered voting for Jimmy.... ALL his votes (that i heard of) were from republicans that didn't want to vote for Reagan
also, John ended up with 6.6%, not 10% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election#Results
Yancey Ward said...
The Libertarian candidates always poll about 4-5 times the vote they actually get. 2016 was the only exception, and that 4-5% that Johnson and Egg McMuffin got combined was almost all NeverTrumpers. I don't think Jorgenson is going to get more than 1% anywhere outside the mountain west this election.
As a life-long libertarianish Republican, I know a large # of GOPers that - like me - couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump in 2016. (We voted "other" - Libertarian, evan Mcwhatever, wrote in a name). I'm guessing 50% of them are voting for Trump this time ("will crawl over glass") even though our vote doesn't count here in WA state. For the many lawyers in my crowd, it's all about Kavanaugh. If they were ever polled, they would never say "Trump" (job security at stake), but might say Jorgenson, just to throw the pollsters off.
Polls. Meh. I wish they'd all go away and we had to make decisions by which candidate had the best video on TikTok. Actually, I think we're one, maybe two elections away from that.
Step 1: Drop the electoral college for national count vote.
Step 2: Allow all breathing and non-breathing people to vote, as long as they have someone there to vouch for their at one time having been alive.
Step 3: Pack the Supreme Court with so many people it'll look like a Greek Wedding. Or...a Nigerian wedding.
Step 4: Turn the entire thing over to the networks that bring you such stellar intellectual pursuits as "The Masked Singer".
Step 5: Stand back and reminisce about the good ole days when you could elect someone based on their TikTok video.
In Wisconsin there's been no great shortage of broken glass to crawl over.
@Kathryn51 Good news on your vote this time! Make sure you do it because, if nothing else, it will count towards the all important (sarc) popular vote which the Dems will be yelling about.
This is a copy/paste from Newsmax. Looks good with Trump ahead in Ariz., Fla., Ga.and Tex.
" Ariz: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group 10/9 Trump 48, Biden 44
Fla.: Trump vs. Biden Fox 35/Insider Advantage 10/8 Trump 46, Biden 43
Ga.: Trump vs. Biden Atlanta Journal-Constitution 10/9 Trump 48, Biden 46
Tex.: Trump vs. Biden UT/Texas Tribune 10/9 Trump 50, Biden 45"
Do the rising Wisconsin Covid cases help Biden there?
10/9/20, 2:42 PM
Blogger gilbar said...
John Anderson won 10%, taking votes from Dem Jimmy Carter, giving Rep Reagan an even bigger win. John ended up with 6.6%, not 10% 10/9/20, 2:45 PM
I agree, it's typically a losing arguement since you cannot predict whether the voters came to vote would've voted for the other candidate or not shown up at all. Moreover, what's the point, you can't stop someone from running, nor would you want to - sour apples. Reagan's win over Carter was a poor example. In modern times, Perot, arguably had a greater impact on Bush v. Clinton election given the: Clinton = 43.0%; Bush = 37.4%; and Perot = 18.9% - split. If Perot had not run we may have been spared the Lewinski "blue dress" episode? Clinton only won by approximately 6% vs. Perot garnering 18.9% of the vote. Don't think more than 50% of Perot's voters would've stayed home [don't really know]. Moreover, most of Perot's voters hated Bush and his "elitism". Also, Bush made a huge mistake by not getting Perot on his side.
My name is Yon Yonson
I live in Wisconsin
I work in a lumber mill there
When I walk down the street
All the people I meet
Say what is your name?
A vote for Joe Jorgensen is a vote for Joe Biden, and for Anarchy, and for Kamala, and for the end of America!
Last time I didn’t decide to vote for Trump until a full minute after I had filled out the rest of the ballot, I almost left it blank.
At the risk of going all Pauline Kael, I have to say that having paid attention to Joe Biden's performance over 47 years in "public service" and these last 18 months I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone could vote for him.
I know about Trump hatred, I get it, but it is based on his personality and style, not the substance of how he's executed his office.
Fucking weird.
Jorgensen seems a lot more left than Libertarian. I cannot see how she takes votes away from Trump.
I do not recall polling being especially accurate when it comes to fringe third party candidates. They tend to be overrepresented, which makes sense as people who tend to vote for third party candidates like people to know they are voting for third party candidates. Maybe that is just my impression. Could be wrong.
It seems odd as I don't know who the Libertarian and Green Party candidates are this year. I did know last time when it was all the rage for "neither of them" and SMOD was showing up on lawn signs.
Libertarians traditionally poll at about 4%, except when they vote.
Trump will win every state he won in 2016.
Plus he will add several that Hillary won last time.
Blogger Howard said...
Do the rising Wisconsin Covid cases help Biden there?
No, it does not help Biden. Not at all.
WI is experiencing it's 1st wave. The spring lockdown was too much, too soon. So now WI is playing catch up. Getting it's 1st "hump". In most states there has been a high hump, and then things level off and life returns to normal. Not many people are in the mood for a Biden imposed lock down.
WI death rate is 247/Million. That compares with Canada. USA Death rate is 660/Million. WI is number 42 in deaths per million.
WI (population 5.8 Million) total death toll is 1440. If WI was at the USA average of 660, the death toll would be 3828. WI is at 38% of that. Current 7-day average is 11 deaths per day - it would take 7 months at that rate to reach 3828.
There are currently 14,250 active cases. That is the metric that is increasing - like I said WI is experiencing it's 1st wave - 4 months after the useless lockdown ended. If 5% of those 14,250 active cases die, the death toll will increase to 2152. That would be 56% of the USA death toll metric based on population.
Again, not too many people are in the mood for a Biden imposed lock down. There would not be any "ROI" on that.
At the DNC convention, New York Governor got a shout out for their handling of the covid. Their death rate is 1715/Million. In WI, that would be 9947 cases - we are at 14% of that. It would take WI over 2 years to catch up to New York, which according to Democraticals is the gold standard.
BAG forgets 2016, when Hillary Clinton took votes from Jill Stein. Had all the Hillary voters voted Stein they would have achieved their “most important objective” of defeating Trump
Francisco D
Because she is a placeholder with an acceptable affiliation. A parking place. The Libertarians could run Michael Moore and it would not affect their vote share.
Jorgensen plays hockey and likes to drink alcohol, so it's not surprising she might do relatively well with the Manitowoc Minute segment of the population.
My point holds this time too. Libertarians won’t vote for Biden. It’s a known fact they won’t vote for Biden even if that means Trump wins. So if your highest priority is beating Trump then you should encourage Democrats to vote Libertarian. Those are the persuadable voters, the ones who can guarantee a Trump loss by voting for Jorgenson.
Unless of course that isn’t really your priority.
So the choices are Trump and Biden and you think it's "strange" people are looking for other options?
Credit to the GOP, they are at least trying to speak to me and pursaude me to earn my vote. The Dems use lawyers to kick rival third parties off the ballot.
I was curious....
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/
“NEW MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL FINDS CLINTON LEADING TRUMP BY 6 PERCENTAGE POINTS IN WISCONSIN; “
That was Nov 2, 2016
Blogger alan markus said...
Blogger Howard said...
Do the rising Wisconsin Covid cases help Biden there?
No, it does not help Biden. Not at all.
I agree with the first wave statement. The interesting thing to me is that almost all of the new/recent cases are occurring in Shawano and surrounding counties. If you look at the map, there is no heat in the urban centers like Milwaukee, Dane, Racine, Kenosha, Waukesha. Those areas were dark blue during and shortly after the lockdown.
https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/coronavirus/tracking/covid-19-cases-testing-and-deaths-in-wisconsin.html?utm_source=jsonline-Coronavirus%20Watch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=newsletter_greeting
Does anyone actually believe polls any more? How many times do they have to be exposed for bizarre methodology, ridiculous samples and crazy assumptions before people develop some skepticism?
I don't know a single liberal in my life that believes the polls either. They were pretty happy beginning of the week and are now surprisingly glum as they can see for their own eyes the lack of enthusiasm for Biden. This coupled with Trump's speedy recovery has them depressed again. :-(
When they talk to people outside of their bubble and they want to chat up about the election the people they aask avert their eyes and change the subject. I have a liberal friend still trying to recover from the fact a team of hispanic HVAC installers she works closely with, are unabashedly pro-trump. She spied a trump sticker on a tool chest and made the mistake of asking them and they told her with great delight.
This doesn't sound like a blue tsunami even in NorCal. Everyone feels they are being gas lit which is impressive when you think about it.
The first derivative (raw numbers, if you believe them) is 46 to 41, Biden.
Well ok, let's start there if you want.
The second derivative, taking into account what "likely voters" means, shows that, of any given 40 people who plan to vote for Biden, 30 will actually vote for him, of any 40 people who plan to vote for Trump, 35 will vote for him. (That is raw numbers, too, but trust me, the people who are deciding where to put the money and effort know the second derivative).
The libertarians usually get about 90 percent of the people who plan to vote for them.
Do the math.
Trump lost a few points among "likely voters" with the ACB nomination because a lot of women who think of themselves as soccer moms (or just a little bit older than soccer moms) who had voted for the Benghazi Bitch but who had turned to Trump because they saw what was happening to innocent people in Blue cities backed off a little. They will be back by election day.
And Trump has consistently been ahead in the "enthusiasm gap", God knows almost nobody but Joe Biden and his elder-abusing wife is enthusiastic about Joe Biden. Actually, the poor old fool is probably not enthusiastic about himself ---- I have seen a lot of these nasty and creepy old men, with long - decades long - histories of stunned selfishness, trying to brave out the miseries of old age, and I would not call what they think about themselves as enthusiasm.
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