I'll just give you one of the 10 items. This is about Florida:
In 2008, Democrats held nearly a 700,000 voter registration advantage and Barack Obama carried the state by 236,148 votes. By 2012 that advantage slipped to 558,272 registrations and Obama won there by 74,309 votes.
In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes. Now the Democrats' voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 lead, which Politico called a “historic low.”...
पोस्ट्स
९० टिप्पण्या:
I think the biggest issue is to what degree threats of violence from the left will keep voters away.
ACCESS DENIED message at the link
I am one of these new registered Florida GOP voters and would crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump and a straight ticket of Republicans. Early (in person) voting in my county (Bay) begins on Saturday.
Let's roll!
Tried the link, keep getting "Access denied"
"ACCESS DENIED message at the link"
That's Fox News for you. I don't know why they do that. I guess you have to copy and paste some text if you want to go there. The next post also links to Fox News so you'll probably have the same problem there.
I will make a mental note to avoid linking to Fox News. I have no idea why they run the place like that. I've had this problem with them many times. Okay, now I actively dislike them. Let's go see what's in The New York Times.
I got into the Fox News article via Real Clear Politics.
Voted early today in Marion County Indiana.
Lots of goofy lefties hanging around the polling station trying to be "intimidating".
They're gonna have to try harder.
I got to the article on Fox by googling Tom Del Beccaro
If you go west of I-95 in Palm Beach County, it’s all Trump signs.
The votes don't matter this time, except those discovered late in the mail. The dems will win by however many votes they need.
The link worked just fine for me, thanks.
When you get the "access denied" from Fox, just go to the address line, block it all and hit enter and the article comes up. Works for me every time. I have the same problem with Twitter links. Somebody who cares can explain why.
The relationship between the Democrat registration advantage and the election results are linear over those three cycles. Trump wins FL by 250,000 votes this time.
Along with this voter registration analysis, others have pointed out that in the last 20 years only two Democrats have won a state wide election in Florida. Obama and Senator Nelson, who was defeated by Rick Scott in 2018. Hardly an indicator of a Red state trending purple, much less Blue. Also, Gov. DeSantis believes Trump will substantially improved his performance in Miami-Dade among Cuban and Venezuelan voters. If true, this is a really big deal.
4. African Americans For Trump.
In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%.
Man, if you think dems treat black people like crap NOW (and I do), just wait until they see the 2020 election results.
Florida was never in doubt, as even our local Democrat county chairman acknowledged to me some months ago.
It's a simple search to find it.
The author makes some good points, including polls and other indications of increased AA and Latin support for El Trumpo.
A Trump victory would make many heads explode, which merit exploding.
It's too exhilarating to think about, so I won't.
Turnout and fraud. That's all.
I'll be casting a vote for president this year, the first time since 1992 IIRC. My vote will be for Trump. I've not told anyone but everyone that knows me knows I support Trump. I'm not particularly vocal about this, they know mostly because I don't join in on their Trump bashing parties, and I tell them to grow up when they complain about Trump's Mean Tweets.
As near as I can tell there is no intimidation happening here in southern Maine. I'm guessing folks are confident of a Biden win. All the political ads and noise are about the Senate race between Collins and Gideon. Collins has played the "she is from away" card, seems to have had a positive effect on her standing. Not out of the woods yet.
We keep getting hit over the head with polls because they are clear and seem objective and sciencey. But the reality is, before the final days, polls do a terrible job of predicting election outcomes. There are other signs that have a much better track record, but they all feel indirect and unreliable, so we are reluctant to rely on them. But they have a better track record than polls and they all point to a Trump victory.
The Fox link worked fine for me.
Okay, now I actively dislike them. Let's go see what's in The New York Times.
You go know the WAPO and NYT have paywalls, right?
That’s an automatic “access denied” for most everything you post.
I got to the article easily by searching the author in DuckDuckGo.
@althouse: How do you know that the broken link isn’t google/blogger messing with you?
Don't worry. The Democrats in Florida have not yet completed printing fully filled in mail in ballots for hundreds of thousands of past and present Floridans.
The vote counting will continue well past Nov. 3.
It's a good article - once you find it.
Ohio is in the bag. So is North Carolina & Arizona. The race, in essence, comes down to Fla & Penn
In Fla, Dems are underperforming in early voting. They need much bigger leads to avoid an Election Day Avalanche by red voters. Also, Gov. DeSantis is a stud, no more lockdowns, schools are open. Trump holds FLA by +2.
Penn is a close call. Trafalgar has it Biden +1. The old joke is Pennsylvannia is Philly in the East, Pittsburg in the West, and Alabama in the middle.
Philly Dems run up the votes and cheat. Western Penn has many Dems who hunt, love their guns & Bibles, and vote for GOP at the Prez level, as long as it's not Romney country club types. Trump is smart to push fracking. Both Slow Joe & Kammy came out against fracking, but lie about it.
Penn will be close - and it's the whole ball of wax. DJT won by 44K votes last time. Since then, GOP got net 200K more registered voters. Will this be enough to offset Philly cheating and bad court decisions on counting late ballots? We shall see.
Todd. Wrt goofy lefties....that would be interesting. One reason I'm voting in person on Nov 3. Even if it gives time for my vote to be cancelled.
the voter registration edge is one of the best arguments for Trump. Why register as a Republican this year if you're just going to vote Biden? You can't even make a difference in the republican primary (assuming you're in reality a democrat and want to register as a REP to vote for an "unelectable" nobody like Trump in 2016).
I will make a mental note to avoid linking to Fox News. (...) Let's go see what's in The New York Times.
Somehow, I'm not surprised.
If the Donald doesn’t win I would be very surprised.
I’m tired of all of the prognostication. When does the game start?
I feel alone in a sea of Biden signs in my neighborhood. I tell myself that the few people who don't have signs up are Trump voters.
Also: Why would anyone in Madison (who is not a school employee) be pro-referenda?
Trump wins every state he won in 2016 plus several new states.
The MSM gaslighting has a limited shelf life.
And they're unable to sway like they would prefer.
The Senate likely stays the same or gets better for Republicans.
The House will flip if Trump performs like I expect he will.
Otherwise, the House will be within seven votes.
But even the California GOP seems to be playing by the new rules.
So I doubt China Nancy keeps her overly large gavel past December 31st.
This is technical incompetence of an odd sort, but if you edit the url in the window where your browser has told you "Access Denied" by removing the "https://", it will work. As a tech person, this makes no sense to me, but there it is.
In any normal year, I would consider a sign that Trump is going to win is his opponent routinely calling an lid rather than actually hitting the campaign trail. Anyone else know a President in the past 100 years that could sleep off 3 days of campaigning in the final month of an election season?
If you think Biden will win, then why is that? And how it that reason not an "in-kind" donation to his campaign?
You don't have permission to access "http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-surprise-victory-tom-del-beccaro" on this server.
Fox News does this all the time. The denial has nothing to do with the article's content.
There is a link in quotation marks. Copy the link (do not copy the quotation marks) and then paste the link into a browser tab. That way, you get around the access denial.
From the author del Baccaro; Item #4 -
4. African Americans For Trump.
In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump.
Okay. He doesn’t say that Trump WILL get 16% of the Black vote. He posits how great it would be for Trump, if Trump attained that magical random number. With no clue as to how it would happen.
I’ve been making bets against that kind of magical thinking ever since Trump came on the political scene. And winning big assed bottles of gin in doing so. Right here.
The other, far more likely, magical thinking is that if Black voter turnout in Michigan is 10% more than in 2016, then Trump will lose Michigan by a larger margin than his razor-thin margin of victory four years ago. All signs so far are that such turnout numbers will be met or exceeded.
How will Florida be affected by all the NY/NJ/CT voters who have relocated down there due to their own states' abysmal handling of Covid?
In the line of "don't get cocky," I imagine that a lot of those new voter registrations were at Trump rallies. The enthusiasm of the moment might not translate.
That said, boy, I hope the tea leaves are right, and that they're right all the way down-ticket... I cannot imagine what the American Left has in store if they win this thing. No, that's not true - their actions in the past three years have forced me to imagine it. I feel as if I can't bear it.
I think Trump is in trouble in Wisconsin. He has pulled his television ads from the state. Also, I live in one of the reddest counties in the state and I'm seeing about a 4 to 1 edge in Biden signs. I've never seen anything like that before.
One thing that may be overlooked, especially in Florida, is that Trump is losing seniors over Rona hysteria. This is a big problem for him. This issue will probably decide the race.
Florida Dems nominated a gay methhead for Governor just because he was black. I am not worried about these geniuses winning here. More concerned about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and now, Arizona.
" Trump is losing seniors over Rona hysteria.”
Who would have thunk that ‘dry tinder’ could vote?
The link appears to be fine: nothing wrong with it, and I suspect the browser might have something to do with it.
Trump will earn 12-15% of the black vote.
Plus another 5-8 will stay home because they do not want to vote for Grandpa Bad Finger.
Or China Joe.
Or BLM Joe.
Or Job Killer Joe.
Fopdoodles hardest hit.
(And John James will be Senator James in 2021.)
Washtenaw EV is down.
EV shows Republican parts of state much more enthusiastic.
Fopdoodles are known liars.
That is not true in Florida, Bushman.
The pollsters are actively deceiving you.
It is pure propaganda.
And Wisconsin early voting shows Republicans are ahead of 2016 pace.
Democraticals begins.
Go sell that shit elsewhere.
When the post-election analysis is written, tim in vermont will be wrong yet again.
Consistency is his thing.
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said..."I think Trump is in trouble in Wisconsin."
I agree. Not because support for Trump has flagged -- I'm seeing far more Trump yard signs than I did 4 years ago, but because the Dems really have the full court press on organizationally: Pouring money into ads (I saw 4 "go vote" ads in a row on Madison TV last night (including the seriously creepy, "we'll know if you didn't, because voter rolls are public information" one)), suing the Green Party (and Kanye!) off the ballot, and illegally harvesting something like 50,000 votes in Madison parks, Fiserve Forum, and Miller Park. It's not a lost cause, but I'm glad there's a path to enough electoral votes for Trump that doesn't require Wisconsin.
Selection bias. Look at the data you don't like if you want the truth.
Polls are showing a narrow Biden lead or a tie in Florida. So it's probably 50/50. That means 50% chance of Biden winning, which would probably be the election, too.
Remember, Biden doesn't need many battleground states to win. He only needs 1 or 2 more than Hillary got, and he has a good chance in all of them.
It's a close election. Happy talk of inevitable Trump victory is lying. I hate being lied to.
I don't know who is going to win.
If Trump wins, the whole polling industry and those who parse them will have suffered a Russiagate level of suicidal self-revelation--they will have self-revealed to be propaganda organs rather than reliable guides to what the public is currently thinking. The newspapers, the news channels, social media all have tried to stack the deck. Why not the pollsters?
Here's the thing: Jason Riley says today that if Trump wins, lightning will have to strike twice. All the polls will have to be wrong in the same direction.
But what if Trump wins?
The fitz suggestion works fine:
“ When you get the "access denied" from Fox, just go to the address line, block it all and hit enter and the article comes up. Works for me every time. I have the same problem with Twitter links. Somebody who cares can explain why.”
Just click refresh and the fox link will work.
The polling outfits are creating the polls they have been paid to create.
They're directed to lie.
And so they do.
Florida is more than Trump +2.
Ohio is Trump +8.
North Carolina is Trump +4.
Iowa is Trump +6.
Michigan is Trump +2.
Arizona is Trump +4.
I don't know how much Philly can cheat but it won't be enough.
Justice McCain, er... I mean Roberts is about to find out what being in the minority is like.
Nevada flips.
New Mexico flips.
New Hampshire flips.
Maine 2 flips and possibly the whole state.
Why are polls the topic when voting is already happening?
Because polls are what the Left uses to shape public opinion.
And the Left is failing badly.
This fascination with tea-leaves and guess work is a nice display of very old gnostic themes. True wisdom is vouchsafed to those initiated into the mysteries that foreshadow what is to come. Good luck with that, as they say. In days of old the gnostics were condemned as heretics, and burned at the stake -- not to go all Hirono on you, just saying what the White Hats used to do to the Black Hats (oops, triggering!).
You know what's insane? Trump.
You know what's also insane? Large portions of the population in Wisconsin, Oregon, Illinois, and other states will say "No way in hell will I vote for Trump. I'm gonna vote for the same party who told the police to stand down in the midst of major urban riots, violence, and destruction and who told Trump to stay the hell out as our cities burned because #orangemanBAD."
Trump is a batshit crazy speaker. Yes, you can pull apart his words and get his meaning. And yes, his actions almost always FOLLOW his words as opposed to every other politician on earth.
But it's important to just assess that his communication style has failed to convince sizable portions of the population since 2016 they should vote for him. You can't say it's the press - they've been anti trump since the beginning. He never pivoted or grew in this way.
Meanwhile: fantastic economy, better trade deals, better contributions from NATO, re-aligned with major enemies, no new wars, major peace deals....
Notice how none of those things came up at the last two debates? Comparing accomplishments? Nope.
In my dotage I have cushioned myself against most of the ill effects of a Biden win, but the one thing I will find it impossible to tolerate is Hillary gloating or getting back into the power structure in some way.
You know what's insane? Trump and his communication style.
You know what's also insane? Large portions of the population in Wisconsin, Oregon, Illinois, and other states will say "No way in hell will I vote for Trump. I'm gonna vote for the same party who told the police to stand down in the midst of major urban riots, violence, and destruction and who told Trump to stay the hell out as our cities burned because #orangemanBAD."
Trump is a batshit crazy speaker. Yes, you can pull apart his words and get his meaning. And yes, his actions almost always FOLLOW his words as opposed to every other politician on earth.
But it's important to just assess that his communication style has failed to convince sizable portions of the population since 2016 they should vote for him. You can't say it's the press - they've been anti trump since the beginning. He never pivoted or grew in this way.
Meanwhile: fantastic economy, better trade deals, better contributions from NATO, re-aligned with major enemies, no new wars, major peace deals....
Notice how none of those things came up at the last two debates? Comparing accomplishments? Nope.
In any normal year, I would consider a sign that Trump is going to win is his opponent routinely calling an lid rather than actually hitting the campaign trail. Anyone else know a President in the past 100 years that could sleep off 3 days of campaigning in the final month of an election season?
One of the problems with Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model is that it doesn't take into account novel circumstances that haven't happened (or haven't been noticed) in previous election cycles. "Are the candidates actively campaigning?" could be another key. Also, Lichtman asks if the incumbent administration has had a major scandal, but doesn't ask whether the challenger has had a significant scandal. The way that we are voting now is also novel. Many people have already voted and if anything happens in the next two weeks it won't affect their decision. And of course, deciding whether any given key applies can be very subjective.
One pollster's data suggests that most of the Democrats elected to the House in the last election will be reelected. I'd be interested in hearing more about how accurate the data is. Another two years of Pelosi won't be pleasant or easily endurable.
Fundamentals are clearly better for Trump- not going to be many new Rs voting D...
EV hasn't begun in the reddest Florida counties, yet Rs are being reported as well ahead of needed- at least according to the EV tea leave readers. A few have called FL for Trump and. 4-5 point win.
Same kind of mutterings for AZ. OH is a swing like TX is a swing. NC is crazy to poll- lots of crossovers, old Ds consistently voting R.
If true Trump only needs one russ belt win. MI seems most likely at the moment. They just shut down campus which means no lefties GOTV push. That should hurt Joe...
All of the polls ARE wrong in the same direction, I suspect it is designed that way.
A lot of tea leave reading, but I think Trump will win bigger than 2016, with record Black and Brown support.
I believe he will knock one or two of the untouchable states; not CA but IL, NY or OR. The support for those states is all in the cities, and the cities have been put through some wild changes by Dems this year. DJT won't get the majority in Manhattan, Chicago or Portland, but the DEM craziness has got to have some erosive effect on support in their major cities. My last visit to NY state, everyone except me was wearing camo. These old fashioned dems are going to go for Trump and tilt those EV's into his column.
For all his unsavoriness, Trump has still done a great job in office up until COVID. And no one really has any idea how best to cope with that. The only reason to vote for Biden--a corrupt demented old creature of the swamp--and Harris--just a stupid whore--is hatred of Donald Trump. I don't think there are enough Americans who want to throw our nation away just to satisfy their hatred.
Trump wins > 300 electoral votes.
"I will make a mental note to avoid linking to Fox News. (...) Let's go see what's in The New York Times."
"Somehow, I'm not surprised."
Trump level trolling by Althouse.
Re: DrSquid:
I think Trump really has been losing support among the richer suburban Whites and among elderly Whites. His gains with Blacks and Hispanics won't offset this, particularly given where those votes are likely to be concentrated (i.e. heavily Democratic states he's losing anyway). So that's going to make it harder for him. If he wins, it's going to be very close, I think.
Birkel: "Nevada flips.
New Mexico flips.
New Hampshire flips.
Maine 2 flips and possibly the whole state.
Why are polls the topic when voting is already happening?
Because polls are what the Left uses to shape public opinion.
And the Left is failing badly."
I don't think Nevada flips because the astonishing scale of cheating in Clark County alone will dwarf legitimate voting everywhere else in the state. There are already hundreds of thousands of ballots that have been mailed out there that have already been flagged for all kinds of reasons that make it clear the "voter" is not eligible or no longer resides there.
There are pictures of mounds of ballots in trash cans, lying in the open beneath mail boxes, filling up the gutters, etc.
Even worse, the democrat state legislature, along with the democrat state Senate and the democrat governor have changed the laws to allow for an additional 14 days of vote counting post election for "mail in ballots" that will provide all the cushion for the democraticals and their LLR-lefty allies to count up the republican advantage and use the voter rolls to "fill in" as many missing democratical voter ballots as they need to win the state.
Finally, in Vegas primarily but also in other locations (like Reno), the culinary union is completely controlled by the democraticals and that's one union membership that is always happy to have the union bosses "help them" fill out their ballots and pick up a little "walking around money".
I consider Nevada a lost cause and Trump should not spend anymore time there unless a specific congressperson needs critical help in a district.
LLR-lefty and Whitmer FanBoy Chuck: "I’ve been making bets against that kind of magical thinking ever since Trump came on the political scene."
Important Historical Note: LLR-lefty Chuck declared emphatically that Trump in 2016 would lose in a landslide and cost the republican party the House, the Senate, Governorships and even some state legislatures.
Then LLR-lefty Chuck declared on this blog, in explicit fashion, that his primary purposes on Althouse blog were the following 2 items:
1) Lie about and smear Trump in order to drive Trump's popularity down to help enable impeachment
2) Drive a wedge between Althouse and her readers
Keep that in mind when reading anything put forth by our FakeCon pro-Whitmer/pro-dem/pro-obama "Lifelong republican" Chuckles.
I think the Democrats have made a catastrophic error in pushing their voters to vote by mail. I have voted both ways- in person and by mail in the past- voting by mail is significantly more work- it is far easier to stop at the polling station, walk in, sign your name, and fill out the ballot and leave. Democrats have not only encouraged their voters to take a more difficult path to vote, but have also scared them to death about voting in person. I think the typical Republican is going to have an easier time successfully voting by either method. I would not be surprised to find out that Democrats lose 5%+ of the people who turned out in 2016. There is something to be said for not scaring your voters away from the polling stations.
One thing that might happen, though, is this- if they think they are losing through analysis of the early vote statistics, the Democratic governors of states like WI, MI, PA, NC, and others might try to restrict the numbers of polling stations on election day, or shut them down altogether at the last moment by claiming a COVID emergency. An unlikely event, but no longer completely implausible either. The window on possible shenanigans is definitely wider than it has ever been in this country.
Birkel, not trying to sell anything. Just stating my concerns and expressing frustration that the Trump campaign barely seems to be functional beyond rallies at this point.
I hope Trump pulls it off, but tea leaves ain’t electoral votes. Objectively things look pretty bad right now.
None of us knows what will happen. I just heard on conservative talk radio that Biden is currently up in GA. If (and it’s a big IF) GA goes Biden this will be a wipeout. FL, PA, and the rest are irrelevant if the GOP can’t even keep GA.
Bay Area Guy: "In Fla, Dems are underperforming in early voting. They need much bigger leads to avoid an Election Day Avalanche by red voters. Also, Gov. DeSantis is a stud, no more lockdowns, schools are open. Trump holds FLA by +2."
Early voting analysis is useless unless you break down the following:
- Party affiliation of the early voter
- If the early voter is a "new" voter or not
"new" also needs to be broken down thusly:
- First election eligible to vote
- Eligible to vote in previous elections but did not
Where Trump is currently crushing it is in the "new" voter who was eligible to vote in previous elections but did not. You want your early vote filled with 0/4, 1/4, 2/4 and maybe some 3/4 (the number of times a voter voted in the previous 4 elections), leaving all your 4/4 voters to plow into the polls on election day because those guys are the ones who will crawl over glass to vote so the party can focus GOTV resources on election day on the final remaining low propensity voters.
Tactically its much, much better for the "crawl over glass to vote" 4/4 voters to not vote too early because that just gives the democraticals and their LLR-lefty allies more time to figure out how many fake votes they need to generate.
Hey, remember when LLR-lefty Chuck went to the mat defending the honor and integrity of Detroit democrat party hacks and their massive cheating? Good times, good times. LLR-lefty Chuck "din't see nuffin" wrong at all! LOL
Back to the good stuff: Trump generated tremendous turnout in 2016 amongst those who were long time "non-voters" but who gave him a try out and now that Trump has delivered mightily for these people in 4 years, the remainder of that group who didn't trust Trump yet, particularly in the midwest, are coming out in even bigger numbers for him in 2020.
That surge in long time non-voting whites, many near-rural, rural and deep rural is significant and, most importantly, because of their voting history, are NOT being polled.
When it comes to African Americans, it appears most of the Trump gains are in the young black male working class populations, which is significant. That group were the ones most negatively impacted by unrestricted immigration/open borders that the lefties and LLR-lefties, like LLR-lefty Chuck, strongly support as a means to make the US a permanent one-party dem controlled nation.
Trump is also gaining over 50% of the hispanic vote in FL and AZ because they ain't commies and so they don't want what the democraticals and LLR-lefties want.
In AZ the elderly republicans that were feared to be leaving the party over the virus are already coming home to the republican party, but McSally is still running about 4 to 5 points behind Trump amongst this key group and it could cost her the seat there.
The other concerning item for republicans in AZ: The democraticals were clever enough to offer up a marijuana legalization initiative for the November ballot which they hope will drive up millennial participation, and thus democrat votes, in a state, AZ, which historically always seems to deliver a 1% or 2% bigger turnout amongst 18-24 year olds than other states.
Bottom line, Trump is looking fairly good despite John Roberts pulling a complete McCain/LLR-lefty manuever for his democrat masters in the PA 3 day additional counting vote by mail cheating scheme. There is a strong chance this will be undone by a Barrett addition to the SC over LLR-lefty Chuck's objections...which will make it all the sweeter.
For the Senate, we really need Collins and Tillis to pull it out along with taking back the AL seat. Gardner, Daines and McSally are behind and might not make it.
The problem with beleiving the polling data is this- we saw this exact same movie 4 years ago. What have the polling firms fixed in the interim? My answer is, "Nothing at all."
I think almost all public political polling is propaganda in disguise. It is no accident that the media polls are always wrong, when they are, in the same direction. The media polls only seem to get it right when the Democrats win- they are never right when the Democrats lose.
There will be no landslide in this election- the range of possible vote percentages is just too fixed in this polarized country. I estimate the range of possible national vote differential to be +4% to -1% favoring Biden- in other words, Biden can win by up to 4%, and lose by 1%- that is the Democrats voter edge. Because of the electoral college structure, the Republicans can win in the above range from +2% to -1% Democrat edge.
If Biden wins, he will win the way Clinton was expected to win in a worst case scenario- by winning WI, MI, and PA rather than losing them all. I think that Blue Wall is still an operative possibility- the electorate there hasn't changed very much in 4 years.
The wild card this year seems to be a somewhat less firm hold of the Democrats on minority voters- it isn't just the approval polling that makes me write this- it is seeing high profile blacks and latinos openly engaging positively with Trump in a way you never actually see them do with Democrats. Trump's outreach to them seems far more convincing that that of Bush II and Romney. Is Trump going to lose because he lost too many seniors? I don't actually see any data for that that I would trust isn't propaganda polling, but I think on election night we will get an early tell on this by watching the returns in Kentucky and Indiana. If Trump improves his margin in those two state over 2016, then he is going win the election- if his margin is worse than in 2016, then he will lose even if he wins FL, AZ, OH, IA, and NC again.
The vote counting will continue well past Nov. 3.
That is what I am worried about. There are millions of random ballots out there, sent to dead people or people who have moved. The USPS unions are probably pissed that Pelosi's bailout hasn't passed so I expect some sabotage. The Democrats have teams of lawyers ready to contest every challenge to random ballots.
I guess we will see. Like, I expect, most Republicans we will cast our ballots in person.
I think the biggest issue is to what degree threats of violence from the left will keep voters away.
A repeat of 2008, neo-KKK standing guard, neo-fascist democratic gerrymandering? Certainly, but beyond the margin of fraud? I think we have grown not only tired, but intolerant of witch hunts, warlock trials, and protests over 16 trimesters.
I believe he will knock one or two of the untouchable states; not CA but IL, NY or OR.
I agree, but I’m thinking specifically Oregon. Eastern Oregon was already pissed at Governor Brown, and if Antifa pries enough Portland voters from the Democrats, well ...
Drago,
You can buy me lunch.
TwoAndAHalfCents: "I hope Trump pulls it off, but tea leaves ain’t electoral votes. Objectively things look pretty bad right now.
None of us knows what will happen. I just heard on conservative talk radio that Biden is currently up in GA."
LOL
Get a grip man.
GA and TX are safe. FL looks okay. AZ and NC are looking good. OH is looking very good. And Trump is highly competitive across the top (MN, WI, MI, PA, even with the Roberts ruling knowing Barrett will be on the court next week).
Yancey: "The wild card this year seems to be a somewhat less firm hold of the Democrats on minority voters- it isn't just the approval polling that makes me write this- it is seeing high profile blacks and latinos openly engaging positively with Trump in a way you never actually see them do with Democrats"
Correct.
The cultural taboo has been broken (not yet shattered).
What I love most about that is how it flies in the face of the racist lies LLR-lefty C**** and his democratical/marxist allies have been pushing for the last 5 years.
Birkel: "Drago, You can buy me lunch."
That reminds me of a Tomcat driver who was known to casually offer to allow others to purchase meals for him with a smooth, monotone, expressionless pitch line that began: "That sounds interesting. Tell you what I'm willing to do. I'd like for you to buy me breakfast/lunch/dinner so we can discuss...."
For LLR-lefty Chuck's benefit, who didn't serve but did once post a War and Peace length treatise on Althouse blog covering the intense 90 second struggle he once had with, allegedly, deciding whether or not to join the military (Spoiler: He didn't), a Tomcat is an F-14.
Re Florida, unlike 2016 I've had a Republican GOTV person knock on my door to make sure I was voting and I'm seeing folks out with flags and banners on street corners every weekend. Also there are huge boat and car parades supporting Trump. I'm in South Florida which trends Democrat as opposed to most of the rest of the state. People I know in Tampa (another Dem area) have been so annoyed by Walmart being looted and folks interrupting their restaurant dinners that they are voting Republican for the first time.
I would be surprised if Trump does not win Florida despite the polls.
The link worked fine for me in the Dissenter browser. It didn't work in Chrome, Internet, Opera or Edge. But Google is the default search engine on some of those and Blogger is a Google product. I don't know enough to say it's definitely deliberate throttling of Fox News but I lean that way.
I recommend Dissenter which is the Gab browser which I just started using. Gab appears to have cleared out the alt-right anti-semites and is now pretty good. I used Brave for awhile but it didn't work with some sites I need for work.
Todd says: Lots of goofy lefties hanging around the polling station trying to be "intimidating".
What do you mean, exactly?
When you have polls with absurd D/R splits - splits that have never been approached in living memory and beggar all belief - and pollsters are still running registered voter models in October, it is difficult to have much confidence in the polls. It does not help that the logical conclusions of the national polls are contradicted in state polls; if Biden is up 10 points he should be winning the battleground states easily and there's no indication that this is true. There is also the matter that the Democrats are not acting like the polls are accurate; you do not spend serious resources on states Clinton won and logically should be locks at this point if you think you are up by 15, but yet here we are. And there was that story that came out that the pollsters, when they are short of Rs, have been trying to make up the gaps by polling the easiest Rs to reach, which also happen to be the Rs most likely not to vote for Trump. Combine that they polls were quite wrong last time and doubts are very much expected.
When you lose trust, you lose control of the narrative.
I'm more worried about that asteroid.
Blogger rhhardin said..."...The votes don't matter this time, except those discovered late in the mail. The dems will win by however many votes they need. 10/21/20, 5:33 AM
Your opinion could be correct - but facts are against you. The facts are that Republicans have out registered new voters by massive numbers vs. Democrats. Therefore, if Democrats can't beat Republicans in such a simple endeavor as registration - what makes you believe they can logistically arrange such massive amount of fraud you claim? We are talking about millions upon millions of votes to overcome in a very short timeframe. Yes there will be fraud committed but not enough to overwhelm the voter registration tsunami numbers. What's really interesting is not only the sheer size of the voter registration effort but they went after people who never voted: Blacks; Hispanics; and Union members. Moreover, Trump on the campaign trial appealed strongly to already registered Democrats. Who did Democrats appeal to on the Republican side? Really a smart campaign!
Yancey Ward said: There will be no landslide in this election- the range of possible vote percentages is just too fixed in this polarized country.
Betcha a dollar.
Balfegor said...
I think Trump really has been losing support among the richer suburban Whites and among elderly Whites. His gains with Blacks and Hispanics won't offset this, particularly given where those votes are likely to be concentrated (i.e. heavily Democratic states he's losing anyway). So that's going to make it harder for him. If he wins, it's going to be very close, I think.
Um, no
Where are "black votes" concentrated?
MI, Wi, MN, PA, GA, NC, FL: All States the Dems want or need. Flip those, the elections' over, Trump wins, and the Senate is GOP.
Where are the "Hispanic votes" concentrated?
FL, AZ, NM, NV: All States the Dems must have to win.
Is he getting those votes? I don't know. Are suburban rich people going to vote for the Party that will burn their houses down, and throw them in jail if they resist? I don't know
But 10% of black males under the age fo 40 switching to Trump would be a big deal
Chuck said..."...The other, far more likely, magical thinking is that if Black voter turnout in Michigan is 10% more than in 2016, then Trump will lose Michigan by a larger margin than his razor-thin margin of victory four years ago. All signs so far are that such turnout numbers will be met or exceeded..." 10/21/20, 7:54 AM
Umm, forgot about Hispanics, who are moving to Trump in numbers not seen for some years! This minority will have an massive impact in all swing states.
I live in the 'Alabama' part of PA. There has been a sudden appearance of Biden yard signs in the last week. Don't know what to make of that, but there are also a fair amount of Trump signs as well, and those houses often have American and Trump flags and such, the Biden houses have those idiotic 'Hate has no home here' virtual signaling signs. I've never seen a Biden/Harris flag. The big question is the 'shy Trump voter'. We've no political signs out on our front yard (my wife and I both work for the Commonwealth and and are not interested in the shit-show that might arise by liberals doxxing us). The phone calls and TV ads are overwhelming. There are entire commercial breaks with nothing but political ads, it has become exhausting really. Straight R for us, voting will take 5 seconds, and reject all Judicial retention votes unless I know them personally.
I voted early here in NC on Sunday. Polls opened at 2pm, and I arrived at 1:20pm. There were about a dozen or so folks on line. I put my mask on and asked the person who seemed to be at the end of the line if in fact this was the end of the line. She said, Yes, it was, and then she stepped back and insisted I go ahead of her. She was (I'm guessing a bit now because of the mask) a fairly young Asian American woman. I thought maybe she was just being respectful to a much older person -- or perhaps the next couple ahead in the line annoyed her in some way. Anyway, when the polls opened, and I got to the door, I stepped back and insisted that the young woman go in ahead of me. which she did. After voting, she and I walked out of the polling place together, and our cars were parked close to each other. The last thing she said to me was, I hope he gets four more years. I said, me too. Perhaps she meant our Democrat Governor, but I choose to take it as a good omen for the President.
Republicans gained about 100k votes in Florida today.
Florida is over.
Put a fork in it.
Funny how all the states that used to swing are now gated, locked, and impenetrable to Democraticals.
I wonder who these seniors are that are turning against Trump. 4 years ago I wasn't a senior, I'm now 65 which makes me one. Many of my Facebook friends are in my age range since I graduated HS with many of them. The only ones I know that aren't voting Trump have been anti-Trump since 2016. I don't think they're convincing anyone else to join them. And they're unreachable to logic- and still believe in Russian collusion and now believe Hunter's laptop is Russian disinformation. Unreachable to logic and immune from facts... not a good way to live a happy life.
And as I said before- if you sit out the election- you're voting to tolerate corruption at the highest levels of government.
Black voters form about 1/5 of the Democratic voter base- that is 20% of of their 50% share fo the total vote.
If Trump just doubled his take of black vote, that is 1.5% margin added to his national total, and in states like Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan- it can make the state unwinnable for Biden. If Trump raises his take of the Hispanic vote by just 1/5, that takes states like New Mexico and Nevada. In short, minorities make up such a huge percentage of the Democrats' voting base that they can't afford to lose even small portions of it. Even worse, where Trump is likely to lose the most white voters are in the states that he doesn't need to win any way- the big coastal states with the most college educated white people.
Greg the class traitor asks a good question. I have been seeing some scare headlines that Trump for some reason is losing senior voters ( Covid probably). My first response is similar to Greg's: are these most experienced voters going to vote for a guy who is guaranteed to shrink their income? Does anyone really believe the claim that Trump (or Barrett, or Kavanaugh for that matter) is going to mean people lose their health coverage after the Dems have been making this claim for 50 years and it turns out they are the only ones who have successfully forced people to relinquish their health insurance because they could not afford it?
Just so everyone knows: my wife and I are voting in person and proud of it!
I believe he will knock one or two of the untouchable states; not CA but IL, NY or OR.
I voted today, in the sense that I dropped my ballot into the box at the library. I hope OR becomes 'touchable' but doubt it. Still, it's nice to know that someone thinks its possible.
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