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७१ टिप्पण्या:
2nd quarter growth was also adjusted up to show record increases. That was yesterday's news which, interestingly, the 'News' did not report. Not on ABCCBSNBCMSNBCCNN. Not sure how they'll bury this jobs report, but I suspect Mary's book will Trump it. (sorry).
Back to Great Depression levels.
No surprises here, really. Reopening leads to people getting back to work.
Democrats and their Deep State allies tried to destroy the US economy. Thanks to Trump and the American small businesses and workers, they’ve failed.
That's a good jobs report. Keep it up America! Happy 4th of July everyone.
Trump 4 jobs!
Biden 4 mobs!
Now there's going to be more calls to get the economy shut down again due to Covid.
"We had 50,000 new cases yesterday." was one of the news farts I heard. Well, with massively increased testing, you've got to expect that. And I've seen a number of folks in health care say that Covid tests are mandatory on visiting an ER or Doc-In-A Box. Whatever the problem you've got, if you're positive you're marked as a Covid patient. (Apparently there's a better reimbursement for Covid than anything else.)
What really counts is the number hospitalized and number dead. Best to keep track of the CDC numbers for that... And we've been in a decline for quite a while now.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
But the 'tested infected' number has already been used as a reason to start shutting states down again. The Democrats REALLY don't want a strong economy coming into the election.
So, what will be the Democratic Party’s next strategy for economic sabotage?
That, along with rioting, looting, arson and murder, is about all they’ve got.
First time in my life that a political party tried to persuade me to vote for them by beating the hell out of me and forcing me into isolation. Interesting strategy.
Side bit: Facebook has banned links to Steve Sailer’s site.
"Dow surges more than 300 points after U.S. jobs report blows past expectations."
Alternate headline: Experts Wrong Again.
It's better but is still really bad. 11%!
The economic hardship is under-covered by media.
Howard, ARM, and Royal ass Inga:
I am really sorry this is happening to you.
Two yuuge record-smashing months in a row, with no help from Blue State governors who’ve tried to strangle the economy for good, hoping an economic train wreck would help elect Biden. And once again GOOD NEWS for America is bad news for Democrats and Progressives. Unexpectedly.
There are no posted comment yet, so let me be the umpteenth to state that...
Democrats and Media most adversely affected by the news.
Watch for a bigger push to shut things down.
My day labor illegal immigrants here in Austin are still scrambling for construction work, and eager to get whatever they can. Back in January they were much more picky about working for $15/hour, and tried for $20/hour, for unskilled work on my job site. So yes, work is picking up, but still isn't back to former levels.
I note with satisfaction that a lot of the Antifa BLM grafitti has been painted over here.
To hell with them.
This is good news. However, do not read into DOW ups and downs too much. Individual investors may be logical animals, but as a group it is a herd that is easily panicked. We already saw them go nuts when the lockdown started with massive swings in both directions, none of this activity anchored to much of anything other than fear and whims. It's like watching a toddler who got into a stash of candy.
In addition, when the DOW is at 26K, a 300 point gain is a rounding error. It's nice, but it's like a poll that showed support went from 50% to 50.1%. It matters for those who own the stock, but it's not that important.
ARM:
Unemployment peaked at 29.4% during the Great Depression.
Nice try.
Stay in the basement, Joe.
We got this.
Watch for a bigger push to shut things down.
Oh yes, and more hysterical Inga comments about the huge spikes in corona virus due to people trying to live their lives.
What really counts is the number hospitalized and number dead. Best to keep track of the CDC numbers for that... And we've been in a decline for quite a while now.
The hospital numbers can be manipulated as hospitals are in financial trouble due to the shutdown of elective surgery. The Wennberg rule is that hospital admissions are affected by empty beds. The more empty beds, the more admissions for less critical reasons.
Beloved Commenter AReasonable Man said ... "Back to Great Depression Levels"
I think you are a little off. Here are unemployment rates from 1931-1941:
1931 15.9%
1932 23.6%
1933 24.9%
1934 21.7%
1935 20.1%
1936 16.9%
1937 14.3%
1938 19.0%
1939 17.2%
1940 14.6%
1941 9.9%
If we can continue to improve upon this our situation this will look like a bad recession, not another Great Depression. But Joe Biden and the Democrats proposed economic policies are promising us another Great Depression - or worse - when they get control. Of course you will be voting for that, and much worse. A lamb being led to the slaughter.
And the experts miss the mark spectacularly once again. Can anybody remember "the experts" getting anything right? You almost get the impression experts are some kind of scam. I mean I think they get paid pretty well for being completely,... no worse than, useless. Next time we need a prediction, I'm gonna look for a man with a live chicken and knife. How could it be any worse?
Best to look at the employment rate, that is, % employed out of all working age adults. That gives a much more valid relative picture.
The last given by the St. Louis Fed is for June, at 54.6%
I'm guessing the July number based on this jobs report is going to come in at @57%
The high as of Jan 2020 was 61.2
The trough of the Covid panic was in April, 51.3
The historical high was in 2000-2001 when it hit the range of around 64.5.
The worst recent performance was in 2009-2014-ish, when it was stuck in the 58.2-58.5 range for those years. While that was not moving, the unemployment rate was dropping swiftly. Which is the object lesson about why the unemployment rate is useless.
At this rate, which is the fastest ever recorded, its pretty clear that the recovery is going extremely well based on historical experience. It is very likely that the January 2020 high is achievable before EOY. Especially if the Covid restrictions are dropped.
Even the dimmest bulb can recognize that the economy has a long way to go before it begins to approach normal. A reasonably rapid recovery in employment is to be expected as the economy reopens but the massive debt that the fed and state government have taken on to keep the economy afloat during Trump's disastrous handling of the pandemic will harm our economy for decades. The current rapid rise in virus cases threatens to undermine even the modest improvements that we are seeing. Trump is a failed president. Nothing will happen between now and November that is going to change this basic fact.
The Great Depression was also a result of government overreaction. Just like this clusterfuck is. Yet, people keep expecting and voting for the government to do more. They do have the most experts.
ARM: "Back to Great Depression levels." (11.1%)
"When Obama assumed office, the unemployment rate... topped out at 10 percent in October 2009, hovering just below that level for the next year..." (Unemployment Rates by President, 1948-2016)
The American People versus their Democrat Governors.
The People came into this series with an incredible record breaking season, but The Governors got off to an early lead using some questionable rule stretching (or cheating), but the People are fighting back, racking up point after point as the Governors try the same old plays over and over. In the end, The People have the right to choose new opponents if the cheating gets them angry enough.
Jersey Fled: "ARM: Unemployment peaked at 29.4% during the Great Depression.
Nice try."
ARM knows that his lies are failing here but our Beijing Boy is simply trying to do what he can for his Beloved and Heroic ChiCom's who are getting crushed by Trump and Trump's leadership in the West.
India is banning use of ARM's beloved ChiCom apps, the Aussies are calling the ChiComs out on several fronts, the UK has booted Huawei from 5G consideration, african nations which are key targets in ARM's Beloved ChiComs Belt and Road Initiative are still very publicly angry at the ChiComs for the racist treatment of africans in China during Wuhan Bat Flu, and on and on it goes.
There is also much discussion that Trump's economic squeezing of ARM's Beijing Heroes has already significantly disrupted ChiCom military force buildouts.
Also critically important, Trump admin actions have led to cut offs if technology transfers to the ChiComs which they needed to continue accelerating their weapons development.
I feel worst for ARM.
Surely this will be a banner headline across the top of the front page of the New York Times tomorrow.
Oh, wait. Obama isn't president now.
Never mind.
Democrats hardest hit....
ARM and his ilk are working hard to keep the economy shut down, and when reports come out that show that the economy is NOT showing record low unemployment and growth, they say "See! Trump is a horrible president!" You guys are complete idiots. So complete that you can't even tell how stupid we see you as even when we point it out 20 times a day. When it comes to influencing people to come over to you side, politically, the liberal team in the Althouse community scores "own goals" with nearly every comment. I am constantly amazed by you obtuseness.
"smashes expectations". Really? What did they think would happen, exactly?
Some jobs and some businesses, sadly, were really killed by the virus. Others were waiting it out.
Looks like the Democrats need bigger riots.
“Two yuuge record-smashing months in a row, with no help from Blue State governors who’ve tried to strangle the economy for good, hoping an economic train wreck would help elect Biden. And once again GOOD NEWS for America is bad news for Democrats and Progressives. Unexpectedly”
It was weird. Spent the last couple days in Spokane Valley, popping back into Coeur d’Alene a couple times. Thanks to being governed from the crazy end of the state by left wing loons, there seemed to be some sort of miasma or something on the WA side of the border. ID was much more opened up, and therefore instead of mandatory masking notices still on the entry to all the stores, they had help wanted notices going up. Here, in NW MT, even further from the progressive idiocy, the grocery store is advertising for employees. They have traditionally been considered one of the best entry level places to work, which means that the two convenience stores in town are probably really scraping for employees. I have concrete pads going in for an office and a garage on the lot next door, and they are still over a month out, indicating that construction is booming here.
Seeing this vivid difference between Red and Blue America, I wondered why anyone in their right mind would ever vote for a Democrat again. Spokane apparently did have some violent rioting, but it didn’t extend into ID, after several carloads of potential miscreants came over to Coeur d’Alene to check it out and saw that it was being openly patrolled by armed groups of residents, many with AR-15s on slings. I will say to those still living among those who want to destroy this country and replace it with a Marxist paradise, you have three choices. You can hunker down, pretending that it isn’t as bad as it really is. You can vote the Dems out of office. Or you can vote with your feet, and move to a free state.
MAGA!!!
Give it time folks... the ship is starting to move under it's own power.
Back to Great Depression levels.
Only for the greatly depressed, ARM.
Huge jobs gains? The HORROR!! The horror...
ARM
What were they before the forced shutdown of businesses? Cretin.
Only the enemies of America and Americans are disappointed by this news. No surprise that the "experts" didn't see this coming. This jobs report smashes expectations, Republican pouncing soon to follow.
I actually heard a nicely balanced report about the rise in new cases of Covid. It was last night on CBS, I think. The reporter cited the rise in cases and then mentioned that it was, in part, the result of a significant increase in testing. Also pointed out that a great majority of the new cases were among the young, who don't typically suffer severe symptoms.
Cuomo got $30,000 for every Senior he killed. Plus savings in future benefits.
Democrats understand Capitalism.
This is good news and another reason to celebrate the Fourth and the freedoms we enjoy thanks to great foresight and sacrifice by the Founding Fathers* and so many others over the centuries.
*I acknowledge the implicit patriarchal bias and of course the white colonialist mindset that so hopelessly infect this term. I am struggling toward Wokeness and I denounce myself.
A combination of mitigating social contagion, soothing, stimulus, and deregulation. Prudent and bold.
Re: Shouting Thomas:
Is the ban on Steve Sailer's blog specifically or is it Unz.com as a whole? There are some authors on there whose main theme seems to be that everything is controlled by the Jews. I vaguely recall media darling Valerie Plame (from the Bush II scandal) was exposed as an anti-Semite after she went around praising some piece about Israel on Unz.com. I think Sailer's fine, but there is some kooky stuff on that site.
Isn't it fascinating to watch the left like Howard and Inga and ARM simultaneously advance these positions:
1) We should blame Trump for all the unemployment and so forth. It's Trump's fault the economy shut down!
2) We need to blame Trump for not shutting down the economy sooner and also for reopening the economy and providing jobs!
So which is it? Is job loss a good thing or not, leftists?
and when Antifa is shooting people in their vehicles, like they did in Provo UTah on Monday past, is that a good thing too?
"ARM:
Unemployment peaked at 29.4% during the Great Depression."
ARM meant to say back to Obama levels.
"The economic hardship is under-covered by media."
I think this is true... but the thing is, for those rendered unemployed by the shutdowns, they know it very well. I suspect that the Democrat/media strategy is to deemphasize the economic hardship for two reasons: 1. They know Biden will not have a compelling economic message, so best to keep the economy out of the news. 2. They'd like their employment-stable voters not to notice the suffering of the rendered-unemployed because that way they can continue to beat the drum for "Trump mishandled the pandemic - he should have shut everything down, faster and harder! It's inconvenient, sure, but you're doing all right, aren't you?"
And again, for those whose jobs have disappeared who might also tend to vote Democrat, they're going to vote along standard lines - a strong economy favors the incumbent, a weak one favors the challenger.
The Dems have positioned themselves so poorly that they love bad economic news, and hate good economic news.
Whenever blue collar folks return to work, it's a good thing, regardless of who is president.
For the Dems, though, it's bad thing, because it may help Trump's presidential prospects.
The Dems have become the enemies of work, jobs, statues, and America.
unemployment at 11% is horrific!
when Antifa is shooting people in their vehicles, like they did in Provo UTah on Monday past
It wasn't a shooting-shooting, but rather a kinetic protest for social justice and ulterior motives.
I just wanted to take a minute to thank ARM for reminding us of the intellectual dishonesty required to assert that Trump is a failure. Fortunately, he’s up (actually, down) to the task at hand!
unemployment at 11% is horrific!
How can it be "horrific" when it is the foreseeable direct result of government-imposed policies that are supposedly in our best interests? If you believe the lockdown propaganda, that's like saying the open-heart surgery that will save your life is "horrific." Of course, I don't buy the propaganda, so I would actually agree it's horrific, but mainly because it represents an atrocity by our leaders.
sunsong said...
unemployment at 11% is horrific!
It is but Trump's apologists here will never admit any fault in the Great Pumpkin. He can ignore Russian bounties on our troops heads and they are fine with it so tens of millions unemployed is nothing.
sunsong said...unemployment at 11% is horrific!
You must have been overjoyed when unemployment under Trump was at record low levels, particularly for minorities. Contribute to his campaign, as I have. Every $50-100 helps.
11% unemployment during a pandemic fueled by the media is impressively low. Where would you have people work when so many businesses are either shut down or partially closed?
June 2020 post-economic shutdown sunsong:"unemployment at 11% is horrific!"
January 2020 pre-economic shutdown sunsong: Record employment numbers for all demographic subgroups is irrelevant!...plus COLLUSION!!
Vance: "and when Antifa is shooting people in their vehicles, like they did in Provo UTah on Monday past, is that a good thing too?"
According to Inga, the only one shoiting anybody is Steve Bannon.
Yes, its an "interesting" theory...
Liberals and anarchists hit hardest.
Beijing Boy: "He can ignore Russian bounties on our troops heads and they are fine with it so tens of millions unemployed is nothing."
ARM has not yet received direction from Beijing to pivot away from this debunked lie yet so he sticks with it.
Of course, the reports from today of Afghani leaders laughing about the russians dumping cash on them since....(wait for it, wait for it)...2014(!) wlas well as Adam Schiff-ty staffers apparently being told about this in Feb but said nothing (because duh! 2014!) will almost certainly lead to a Beijing directed narrative change from their US allies like ARM.
I give it about a week before ARM reverts to form and denies he ever said anything about this.
And yes, denying your many previous comments is indeed called Going Full Inga.
What really counts is the number hospitalized and number dead. Best to keep track of the CDC numbers for that... And we've been in a decline for quite a while now.
I agree 100%!
But am suspicious of any numbers coming from the CDC and how they keep changing their baseline assumptions. Moreover, everyone seems to forget so much of these reported numbers are based on estimates.
Pookie Number 2 said...
that Trump is a failure.
And the voters will confirm that in November, assuming Trump is still running.
I can attest to Michael K's assertion. I've just completed cataract surgery, both eyes. The biggest hospital group in the state has one surgical center happening. The surgical center near me is closed... laid off. Two people for eyes on Wednesday. Follow up visits with the surgeon are the fastest office visits I've seen in years. Three folks today after lunch. When I left, 3 more waiting.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
sunsong said...
unemployment at 11% is horrific!
It is but Trump's apologists here will never admit any fault in the Great Pumpkin. He can ignore Russian bounties on our troops heads and they are fine with it so tens of millions unemployed is nothing.
You're so reasonable that I'd love to agree with you if you could only STOP LYING!
50% have ruled out voting for Trump!
Beijing Boy: "And the voters will confirm that in November, assuming Trump is still running."
About 6 months ago I was wondering when our marxist dems would recycle their stupid 2016 pre-election/post-election pre-inauguration narrative about Trump dropping out. Now we know.
Inga and ARM were particularly insistent that Trump would not make it to the inauguration, then would resign immediately, then would resign before 3 months as President, then would resign before 6 months, then 9 months, then 1 year, then 15 months, than 18 months, then before the 2018 election, then at 27 months, then at 30 months, then before the Mueller hacks had reported out, then when the Mueller hacks had reported out, then 12 months before the Presidential election, then 9 months before the Presidential election, and then about 6 months before the Presidential election, and now at 4 months.
Beijing Boy and Inga don't realize how moronic they look when keep recycling the same nonsense that doesn't even fool young voters but then again, they labor under a real handicap: history begins anew each day for them so they can't even remember what they said previously, so onward they plod.
I sure hope Steve Bannon doesn't decide to burn down the Hollywood Hills.
That would be a real shame.
And by the way, it was only about a month ago ARM was claiming unemployment was actually going to rise, so, you know, par for the course for that lad.
And the voters will confirm that in November, assuming Trump is still running.
Certainly possible. You’re not alone in your ignorance and dishonesty, alas.
ARM is getting hypomanic. Get some Lithium before complete mania takes over.
BTW, just yesterday, Lefty Heroine Rachel Maddow, Inga's "go to" "news" source for up to the minute russia hoax info, predicted the jobs reports would be stunningly bad.
And that's what the lefties were ready to run with today.....until reality intruded.
Again.
So their lines of attack changed...even though it contradicts what they had been previously saying....because of course they did.
sunsong is the strangest commenter on Althouse Blog. Just saying.
Jersey Fled: Is "29.4%" a typo for 24.9? That's the number I find (at the first detail-filled link that came up Googling 'unemployment rates great depression' here) for the peak unemployment in the '30s, specifically 1933. That's over twice today's 11.1% rate. The numbers for 1931-40 are all significantly over 11.1: 15.9, 23.6, 24.9, 21.7, 20.1, 16.9, 14.3, 19.0, 17.2, 14.6. So, ARM, would you care to 'revise and extend' your remarks, or would you rather look like a liar and/or damned fool?
Interesting that you left out the unemployment numbers for 1941. Just a coincidence I guess. Or maybe you'd rather look like a liar and/or a damned fool.
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