From "An Army of Virus Tracers Takes Shape in Massachusetts/Asian countries have invested heavily in digital contact-tracing, which uses technology to warn people when they have been exposed to the coronavirus. Massachusetts is using an old-fashioned means: people" (NYT).
Reading the headline, I thought that article would be more of a pitch to go to digital surveillance, but it's promoting hiring huge numbers of contract tracers. Does that seem likely to work well in America? The Times doesn't come out and say it, but one might expect Americans to rankle at digital surveillance. The Times is politically correct enough not to lean heavily into the notion that surveillance is an "Asian" approach, but the implication seems to be there. The corollary is that the personal, individual connection is more suited to Americans.
But is it?! It's all about phone calls — phone calls from unknown numbers. Do we even answer the phone when we don't know the caller? I don't. And what's your reaction when a call comes through without showing the caller's number — especially if they call back 3 times and never leave a message? I would never answer that call. Would you? Would the average American?
The article begins with an anecdote about a caller who not only gets the phone answered, but talks to a woman for 45 minutes. The 2 of them "giggled and commiserated." So... I'm sure some people pick up and love to talk to a stranger about their personal predicament. But I don't believe that's the way most of us Americans are using the phone these days.
The NYT should lay out the digital surveillance option and let us judge for ourselves whether it's superior to these hordes of human telephoners. If I'm protected from digital surveillance, then explain to me why the government that wants to call me on the telephone has my number? If you already can get to my number, then maybe when it's a matter of life and death, you should just go ahead and do the digital surveillance needed to trace the contagion and spare me the nonsense of a nice lady calling on the phone to giggle and commiserate with me for 45 minutes.
IN THE COMMENTS: I Have Misplaced My Pants identifies the worst flaw with the personal approach to contacts tracing:
Anyway, someone explain to me the point of focusing on contact tracing when we have been hiding from the general public for weeks now because the media has convinced people they’re going to Get It from a person standing too close at the ATM or touching packets of carrot seeds. Isn’t contact tracing related to the idea that the relevant risk is people you spent time around and know well enough to identify? If that’s the case and worth investing in as a technique, can we stop pretending that joggers and kids on playgrounds are a threat?And MayBee said:
We obviously need a national program where government workers call random numbers and see if someone is so lonely they need to talk to a stranger for 45 minutes.Well, jobs...
And Balfegor said:
I think part of why places like Singapore and Korea have been more comfortable with/resigned to mass surveillance in this case is that until quite recently, they were basically fascist dictatorships. More explicitly fascist in the case of Korea, but I think it's true of Singapore as well, and definitely true of Taiwan. Mass surveillance isn't some hypothetical future state -- it's the reality people grew up with. Sure it was relaxed somewhat over the past 20-30 years, but the infrastructure -- both practical and ideological -- has remained. Koreans have national ID cards, for example, but unlike a social security number in the US, they need their ID number for everything, even just signing up for free accounts on the internet (for which Korea has a "great firewall" of its own, though it's currently just used to block piracy and porn, without much effectiveness). If anything, what is new is the democratization of mass surveillance, with the private lives and movements of the infected exposed to public view (and ridicule), rather than being confined to the secret police, the way it used to be.
Anyhow, I think it's not "Asian" so much as a legacy of dictatorship. Japan, somewhat ironically given the key role of ex-Imperial officers in the authoritarian governments in Korea (Park Chunghee) and Taiwan (Lee Tenghui . . . Chiang Kaishek too, come to think of it), has struggled to implement similar mass surveillance mechanisms because they haven't had anything like that since 1945. Even use of cellphone data seems to have been a struggle. Despite the problems they are encountering tracking people who may have been exposed to hotspots in the red light districts (where people use fake names and pay cash), I don't think they've yet been able to access cellphone location data to track down everyone who went in and out of the potential hotspots. In Korea, meanwhile, they'd have pulled that data immediately and sent teams out to track people down and order them into confinement. In Japan, they've only just been able to start using anonymized location data to track activity levels following the request for voluntary restraint (自粛要請).
१४८ टिप्पण्या:
Of course the NYT endorses totalitarian control.
F You, NYT!
If your name and number doesn't appear in my caller ID, I don't answer. Sorry.
Often I don’t answer the phone when it’s someone I know. I never ever answer it when it’s someone I don’t.
Anyway, someone explain to me the point of focusing on contact tracing when we have been hiding from the general public for weeks now because the media has convinced people they’re going to Get It from a person standing too close at the ATM or touching packets of carrot seeds. Isn’t contact tracing related to the idea that the relevant risk is people you spent time around and know well enough to identify? If that’s the case and worth investing in as a technique, can we stop pretending that joggers and kids on playgrounds are a threat?
If your name and number doesn't appear in my caller ID, I don't answer. Sorry.
Same. I'll read texts from unknown numbers before I delete them however.
compile a list of every person he or she had been in close contact with for 48 hours before the onset of symptoms.
What good is that if there's a 2 week incubation period?
I prefer to miserate amd comgiggle. Especially with a nice old lady.
(10)STUPIDITY
The answer to the prof’s question is that I don’t and won’t answer the phone unless caller ID confirms that the caller is somebody I want to talk with.
Beyond that, I’ve ceased obeying any of the diktats emanating from the authorities.
I suggest that you do the same. Rebel. Refuse to obey. Go about your business.
The state cannot revoke your civil liberties and imprison you in your home. Give the state the middle finger. Resume your life.
Live free or die.
Isn't it up to Trump and his crack nepotismic team to come up with a contact tracing plan? Or is he going to pass that buck too? The most important thing about Coronavirus response is that Donald is able to maintain plausible credit or plausible deniability depending on the way things break.
I only answer the phone if I want to talk. I never want to talk to a stranger and so do not answer the phone when the caller is unknown, whether identified or not. My phone has a setting that silences calls from numbers not in my contacts list. They don't even ring, or in my case vibrate (my ringer is set to off).
calling back three times in succession to signal the call’s importance
CVS calls me three times in succession to signal how important it is for me to refill that prescription I get cheaper somewhere else. They also signal the call's importance by using a recursing instead of a real person.
I signal their call's importance by blacklisting their number.
My really smart phone automatically blocks calls if the number is not in my contact list. If it's important they'll leave a message, otherwise leave me alone.
We obviously need a national program where government workers call random numbers and see if someone is so lonely they need to talk to a stranger for 45 minutes.
Do people wear name tags on the subway?
Madison man is right. Why don't they text? They could arrange a phone conversation that way if needed.
I also think its been very hard to teach people not to talk to random phone callers- they are usually a scam. Especially senior citizens. So suddenly telling them to talk to whomever calls and tell them what they've been doing is just begging for a scammer to take advantage of them
It seems to me that this virus has already spread way beyond the point where conact tracing is feasible. You're not getting this toothpaste back in the tube.
"giggled and commiserated." for 45 minutes.
Must be a gummint job tee hee.
I have a list of close contacts that are the only calls that the phone will actually ring for. Anyone else can leave a message, if they want to talk to me. Three calls with no message would result in a blocked number.
If the NYT could track phones to see (metadata) where people went, I'm sure the government could see where each specific number went, if it really wanted to (although, maybe not legally, so it's better to do it the old-fashioned way).
Scammers are quickly going to jump on this and further complicate matters.
I know there are some companies and countries working on apps that use bluetooth to tell you if you've come in contact with someone with COVID. But I worry if they start to think this is a good idea, they'll find more reasons to use it. Like if you are on the sex offender registry.
It's never just the one thing.
Crawl on your belly, ARM, like the cowardly little worm that you are and beg the government for permission go about your business.
My telephone (landline only) doesn't ring, as of around 1990. The final solution for telemarketing calls. Phones are for calling out.
On the other hand, it's doubtful I'd infect anybody, and presumably vice versa. Human contact once a year is plenty.
I'm likely to get it from surfaces. School-attending grocery stockers.
All of this theater is tiresome.
Protect those at risk. Get them isolated, and all their contacts need to shower in/shower out.
The rest of the country can go back to work.
I have noticed the gross deaths are still the measurable, despite the number being meaningless.
I have been trying to ferret out the co-morbidity here locally. Very tight lockdown of information. Not sure what is being protected. Close friends at the small rural hospital, tell me 100% of the deaths are persons with at least 2 co-morbidity. Small data set.
We don't have to do contract tracing if we protect the vulnerable.
The data accumulated to date of the number of Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths indicate that such anti-liberty measures are actions designed to fix a problem that doesn't exist.
There is no justification for going along with these government rules and sanctions. They are accomplishing nothing positive relative to the epidemic.
I'm not answering a text either. I will always be certain this is going to wind up telling me to go buy $200 worth of Steam gift cards and tell them the code.
If I'm protected from digital surveillance, then explain to me why the government that wants to call me on the telephone has my number?
Somebody with the cooties ratted you out.
The reactions of Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore all suggest that it did
Suggest
Police subpoena cell phone records with probable cause. Sounds like a reasonable public health need for GPS data could be made. Too bad the people we would have to trust for this to work have pretty much blown their credibility with acts of tyranny and fiat declarations that shopping in crowded markets is SAFE while worshipping-with-distance or motorized fishing boats are forbidden.
If I get a call from an unknown number, I just assume I've won another cruise.
BillieBob Thorton said...
My really smart phone automatically blocks calls if the number is not in my contact list. If it's important they'll leave a message, otherwise leave me alone.
4/16/20, 7:48 AM
THIS!
I jail-broke my original iPhone years ago so that I could install a phone block manager. The newer version includes this feature, which is nice!. I do wish that they would enhance both the "contact" block feature and the other "block specific number" feature such that you could control what is blocked. I may want to allow only a vmail from a number not in my contacts list while also allowing NOTHING (call, vmail, text) from a number I have specifically blocked. I have not seen where I can yet do that.
The great majority of calls I get from "Caller ID: UNKNOWN, maybe SPAM?" leave messages congratulating me on my outstanding credit score. I listened to the entire message once and learned that this outstanding credit score qualifies me for a new line of credit. So at least I've got that going for me, which is nice.
Doing contact tracing by tracing my cell phone and/or sending me alerts is going to do nothing, nada, zip.
First. I have flip phone that cost less than 100$ not a $1000 I phone.
Second. I don't live on my phone. Most of the time it is turned off and in a drawer.
Third. If I do use my phone the first thing I do is delete all messages without looking at them because other than my husband no one knows that number. It is all spam. I don't text and I don't look at texts if they come in ...spam.
Fourth. Hubby has a cell phone for work, but it also is turned off almost all the time except to get messages. He is rarely IN cell phone reception range and has to drive to select locations to get signal. He doesn't know how to or want to know how to text. Voice mail box only.
Fifth. If you call us at home and we don't recognize the caller ID as a VOIP call, 800 number or now listed as possible spam....we MIGHT answer because it is likely a business call or family..... but if not, I silently hang up. Or I might decide to fuck with you for a while. Microsoft Help Desk spammers are the best you can really screw with them. I've even had THEM hang up on me and call me names 😁
iowan2: "All of this theater is tiresome. Protect those at risk. Get them isolated"
But, but that means they couldn't see family and friends! F%*k that, as one old person told us just yesterday on this very blog.
So here we are, devastating the lives of young people for no appreciable gain to them, while not doing the obvious to isolate old and sick people. Of course, one big supply of "COVID" "fatalities" comes from nursing homes. They should do the best they can, but it makes no sense to shut down the whole economy, and prevent the young women in the salon down the street from cutting the hair of teenagers up the street, to protect nursing homes.
Oh, and mall landlords battle retailers over unpaid rent, per WSJ. More "marginal businesses," according to an esteemed commentator on this very blog.
This is nuts.
Since a virus is too small to see using visible light, does it have a color?
It’s simple. Turn contract tracing on.
Make available to the American People the traces of all the politicians at all times.
Where Nancy is. Where Nancy goes. Everyone Nancy meets with. No exceptions.
When the crisis has ended, the politicians are free to restore everyone’s privacy.
Back in my day contact tracing was the trail left by your hand moving across your field of vision while tripping on acid, man.
The US government should digitally follow all NYT reporters. And tap their phones and email.
So here we are, devastating the lives of young people for no appreciable gain to them, while not doing the obvious to isolate old and sick people.
Socialism: You have two cooties. The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.
Remember when only silly Asians wore face masks. Westerners knew they were ineffective. We were told so by experts....If it's a choice between these phone apps and house arrest, then phone apps might be the way to go.....I like the idea of isolating the old. That's worked out very well in nursing homes. It saves a lot of mileage for the funeral directors. They can pick up five or six bodies in one trip.
'Clearly demonstrate', would also work.
No it wouldn't or they'd have said that. Taiwan isn't even a WHO member.
These countries, being close neighbors of China, the source of several recent virus pandemics, were naturally a lot more jumpy than countries on the other side of the world. These countries reacted in spite of what WHO said, not because of it. They had a plan in place. They implemented it. The US and Europe didn't have such plans.
It doesn't fall solely on the Trump administration that the US didn't have similar preparations in place. Perhaps we will going forward. To say we should have is hindsight.
Leave your phone at home. Get a burner phone if you need connectivity.
I think part of why places like Singapore and Korea have been more comfortable with/resigned to mass surveillance in this case is that until quite recently, they were basically fascist dictatorships. More explicitly fascist in the case of Korea, but I think it's true of Singapore as well, and definitely true of Taiwan. Mass surveillance isn't some hypothetical future state -- it's the reality people grew up with. Sure it was relaxed somewhat over the past 20-30 years, but the infrastructure -- both practical and ideological -- has remained. Koreans have national ID cards, for example, but unlike a social security number in the US, they need their ID number for everything, even just signing up for free accounts on the internet (for which Korea has a "great firewall" of its own, though it's currently just used to block piracy and porn, without much effectiveness). If anything, what is new is the democratization of mass surveillance, with the private lives and movements of the infected exposed to public view (and ridicule), rather than being confined to the secret police, the way it used to be.
Anyhow, I think it's not "Asian" so much as a legacy of dictatorship. Japan, somewhat ironically given the key role of ex-Imperial officers in the authoritarian governments in Korea (Park Chunghee) and Taiwan (Lee Tenghui . . . Chiang Kaishek too, come to think of it), has struggled to implement similar mass surveillance mechanisms because they haven't had anything like that since 1945. Even use of cellphone data seems to have been a struggle. Despite the problems they are encountering tracking people who may have been exposed to hotspots in the red light districts (where people use fake names and pay cash), I don't think they've yet been able to access cellphone location data to track down everyone who went in and out of the potential hotspots. In Korea, meanwhile, they'd have pulled that data immediately and sent teams out to track people down and order them into confinement. In Japan, they've only just been able to start using anonymized location data to track activity levels following the request for voluntary restraint (自粛要請).
Be Not Afraid!
Back in my day contact tracing was the trail left by your hand moving across your field of vision while tripping on acid, man.
In front of a mirror while turning the light off and on, dude.
I liked the way they'd snap back into your hand when you stopped moving it.
Stay on topic. This isn't a general post about coronavirus. Go back to the cafe if you want to do that. This is on a particular topic!
And stop the personal back and forth. You are wasting MY time needing to do deletions.
Cut it out. Stop insulting each other and throwing idiotic dirty words around for zero reason.
You will be relegated to troll category if you continue.
seems like we can solve this (and EVERY OTHER PANDEMIC) EASILY!
ALL WE HAVE TO DO,
A) is have ALL people carry digital id's, implanted into either their right hand, or forehead*
B) eliminate ALL civil liberties...
Things like Religious gatherings and Protest assemblies are Just Vectors for virus transmission
Obviously, some Backward thinking people will object (don't they ALWAYS?)
so, we'll have to (OBVIOUSLY!) ban all weapons (and any non-essential travel)
Media reports will need to be monitored and controlled; to avoid disturbances
If (WHEN!) we make these simple changes, disease will be a thing of the past
(if somehow, something bad Does happen? That's WHY we are controlling media (duh!)
implanted into either their right hand, or forehead* i'm not sure that hexadecimal will be EFFICIENT enough for this Brave New World; we'll Probably have to use base 666
Anecdotal and unscientific. I can confirm that Asian countries especially have a different reaction to the digital surveillance we would consider an unconstitutional invasion of privacy (and it is) and such a system WOULD NOT work here. To a greater extent EU, but nowhere near as much as China or Japan or Korea.
Would. Not. Work. No one here would care and lawsuits would be very close behind.
Speaking of COVID-19, I think there is now enough data for me to make a prediction. I see that:
1. By May 15 we will have 55,000 total deaths in the US from covid-19.
2. From 5/15 to 6/15 there will be a regular but declining daily death rate of less than 30 per day.
3. The deaths total data from January will approximately fit a gamma distribution, or a heavy right tailed bell curve.
That's what I get from a few assumptions. After mid June the death rate may flare up a bit, especially a smallish second wave in the Mid Atlantic states.
It is becoming painfully evident that this crisis is bringing out the worst in some of our commenters.
the one thing Americans do best is blame.
Our pols can make promises... and nothing.
Cuomo, early on, promised to track down everyone on a airplane who flew with the passenger who had the virus. It never happened. stuff like that. We were told flights were shut down from china, but then you read... were they?
I answer the phone all the time. Hell I'm retired with nothing better to do so idgaf. So I get a lot of political surveys and sometimes I lie to figure out who's behind it and what they're up to.
Fancy my responses have had more impact than my vote, since no one else answers much less take a poll. I used to do political cold calling and NOBODY answers.
Japan is declaring a state of emergency. Looks more and more likely that the trip I booked for September isn't going to happen. :-(
I'd be Ok with a National ID card if it meant that our immigration laws were followed, illegal entrants were firmly denied access to anything, and our voting system was fixed of all fraud.
The D's want a National ID for other reasons, and the oppostie of those.
"We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home.
Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.
Even higher proportions of presymptomatic transmission of 48% and 62% have been estimated for Singapore and Tianjin, where active case finding was implemented."
Some of you are *responding* to posts I have already deleted.
Come on! Help me out here.
I will have to turn on moderation if you can't control yourself and help me have a blog with conversation that fits the post. It's not a free for all.
William ..I like the idea of isolating the old.
I'm old. I'm voluntarily limiting my trips to crowded areas,large gatherings and shopping trips. I don't want to get sick, and more importantly don't want anyone else to get sick if I catch something. Although....I've been doing that thing, social isolation, for quite some years because I live in a small rural area and like it that way.
However, if you try to put all us oldsters under house arrest, in this area, be aware that 95% of us(old and young) are armed and will not willingly give up our rights if it were to try to be enforced. Our Sheriff has already said he wouldn't enforce that type of ruling or ANY laws that Ca might make confiscating guns. He's no dummy.
We adhere to the 3 "S" rule. Shoot, Shovel, Shut up. In fact many places have signs on their fences to deter the tweekers and petty thieves. "No Trespassing. I have a rifle and a backhoe." That isn't just hyperbole.
This economic destruction is deliberate and planned, and coordinated with the CCP.
It's not an accident.
The Democrats have been openly warning that they would use this as a last ditch tactic to rid the country of Trump for 3-1/2 years. They are now following thru on that threat.
The next step is overturning the voting laws in 32 states to allow online voting and vote harvesting, a campaign of massive voter fraud.
NYT is talking past the sale. The real question is why, at this point, contact tracing and testing are important. Sure, the governors and health bureaucrats repeat it as a mantra, but so what? That seems to be based on models that we now know are always wrong and ALWAYS in the same direction. This is no more than an excuse to delay reopening.
Reject the premise.
same link -
"For a reproductive number of 2.5 (ref. 2), contact tracing and isolation alone are less likely to be successful if more than 30% of transmission occurred before symptom onset, unless >90% of the contacts can be traced."
a start
OK I am with and have been with ST. Enough is enough.
This virus is not nearly as contagious as they claimed
They are jacking up the number of cases and deaths
Hospitals get paid extra for Covid19 cases/deaths
Why believe anything when it is clear they don’t know the efficacy of masks
Why believe any predictions when they have been wrong. Every. Single. Time
I played along.
The problem, ST, is you can go out and about but nothing is open.
Delete away, prof. It's your board.
I'm not at all happy about having to say these things. I'm like you. My income keeps coming in no matter what.
It's OK. The word is already out there.
The spirit of the rebel still lives in America. The rebellion has already started and I expect it to spread and to become more fierce.
My dear Ann, when you choose 2 work in a medium that includes autonomous human beings, what you least desire is what you are exactly going to get.going into moderation is the equivalent of overworking and creating mud on a painting.
Your deplorables are just responding as would be expected to your troll/posts. Think of these problems as happy accidents and let it go.
We are feminists and we are fierce
"NYT is talking past the sale. The real question is why, at this point, contact tracing and testing are important."
Exactly. Classic response from the bureaucracy and government functionaries: fighting the last war rather than the current one.
Asian countries have invested heavily in digital contact-tracing, which uses technology to warn people when they have been exposed to the coronavirus.
I cannot read the article, but my BS detector went off.
"Digital contact tracing that uses technology to warn people when they have been exposed..."
Please explain exactly how that works.
interesting
The timing of this virus is really good for Democrats. Indeed.
Bill Maher roots for recession so that Trump loses in 2020
The decline of answering the telephone is one of the many side effects of the 40 year destruction of old values in the name of commerce. I have seriously considered getting rid of my landline for the last year, given the barrage of calls daily from polling, political, charitable and scam artists of every description (but I repeat myself). Like the critical supply lines from China for everything from medical and pharmaceuticals to solar panels, there is a hidden safety cost to all this economic efficiency to the US that is only just being realized.
The problem with asking people about their contacts is they are not going to confess to the ones that are most likely to spread the disease. You want contact tracing, hack into Tinder & Grindr.
Completely unrelated: Is it just me, or have the sidebar ads for Ashley Madison stopped showing up for everyone?
Contact tracing would take many years to implement. I would not cooperate.
They should take the thousands of useless ventilators and beat them into plowshare. Or make them into Hero Medals for the ER workers who stood by for the onslaught that never came in all the rural hospitals across America. So disappointing for them. And not just rural hospitals. Most hospitals.
Trace your tits loose.
Are we prepping the battlefield for something more nefarious here? Do they allow this for registered sex offenders, drunk drivers, people who delete thousands of subpoenaed emails which have been found to betray national security secret info? I get a dozen calls a day from Arthurs in third world phone farms telling me I've won the Publisher's Clearing House grand prize. I'd prefer a person stalking me. A hypersonic hollow point can resolve that issue.
even more so
Is it just me, or have the sidebar ads for Ashley Madison stopped showing up for everyone?
Word is out that Iggy has turned over a new leaf.
I never answer the phone unless I know the caller. If it's important, the caller can--and does--leave a voice mail message. Unfortunately, I've become a slave to the 'ping' I get when a text message comes in--usually from one of my kids. Makes me feel like Pavlov's dog.
Would you answer the phone if “Covid 19 Trace” came up on the caller ID?
Hey... We could set up a secret court empowered to get one's medical records, provided of course any bullshit reason at all would suffice...
Trash the economy... Do It For The Children!
Interesting how many people apparently have caller-id & answering machines. I don't have either, as if I don't want to deal with your call now, I probably won't later either. My policy is to pick up the phone and say "hello". If nobody says hello back immediately, I hang up.
"Digital contact tracing that uses technology to warn people when they have been exposed..."
Presumably, phones that have been in close proximity to a phone belonging to someone who is infected.
"Digital contact tracing that uses technology to warn people when they have been exposed..."
1. Create a database of everyone that has contracted the virus, make sure it is accurate and current
2. Establish a method for tracking and tracing the movements of everyone
3. Publish a phone app or some other personal technology that will warn each person when they are near or nearing a person in the database
Or something similar I guess.
To overcome the problem of the lag between contracting the virus and exhibiting symptoms you would have to track and trace the movements of all people at all times.
Apologies to Althouse, slightly OT I know, but . . .
DBQ, normally the very model of common sense, says: "However, if you try to put all us oldsters under house arrest, in this area, be aware that 95% of us (old and young) are armed and will not willingly give up our rights if it were to try to be enforced."
And so it goes. Because isolating old people for real would infringe on "our rights," we have to devastate much of the economy, forcing a whole lot of not-old people to give up their rights -- to liberty and the pursuit of happiness, to having contractual rights enforced, and to a quality education, for starters.
We're already waist-high in digital surveillance as a society with nary a complaint. Mainly because it's been put in without much fanfare or discussion. When it's mentioned that our apps are tracking us via our phones, we are told we can just shut them off. We buy that. For a bit. But so many apps on so many phones. I keep some apps on, turn some off. Turn others on when I want to use them. And, oh yeah, there's that option of setting the apps to only track when in use. Yeah I buy that.
Turn off all of your apps, and your phone can still track you. But that's just the tip.
Look up. Look at the upper corners of your neighbors front door, or under the garage soffit, or at their door bell. Cameras. Look up at any city street corner. Cameras. Any store. Any shopping center parking lot. At the bank, airport, gas station, card shop, Sephora. Name it- you're on camera.
I said we were waist-high. Hell, we're shoulder-high. It's not too far a leap from here to complete the circle. Interestingly- everything we've gotten used to living with is both right out of an Aldous Huxley novel and with our silent approval. Yeah, we know instinctively that it's not congruent with a freedom-loving society, but hey, we like some of the convenience and love the idea that it helps keep things safe. It's good to know that someone out there is keeping a watch on things, eh?
One more step. They could certainly announce more plans to further digitally watch all movements "for the good of society". And those who oppose would be considered people who don't care about the greater good. The Dems have used this argument for years when it comes to mounting programs under the guise of doing it "for the children". When you disagree with them, you are against children.
I think our society would not be as opposed to full-on surveillance as many think. I think we've already accepted it as part of living in these times. As predicted.
BleachBit-and-Hammers said...
I'd be Ok with a National ID card if it meant that our immigration laws were followed, illegal entrants were firmly denied access to anything, and our voting system was fixed of all fraud.
The D's want a National ID for other reasons, and the oppostie of those.
4/16/20, 8:29 AM
Sorry but the ONLY way a national ID would ever get approved is IF the legislation included explicit instructions that this national ID could NEVER be used as proof of identity for voting. Agree to that and Democrats would approve it in a heart beat.
Temujin said...
We're already waist-high in digital surveillance as a society
Between the Patriot Act and Google/Amazon there is no functional difference between our level of surveillance and that in Asian countries.
but it's promoting hiring huge numbers of contract tracers
Shades of President Wilson and the American Protective League snitches monitoring patriotism.
"one might expect Americans to rankle at digital surveillance."
I can tell you that this one sure does, and judging from the comments here I'm not alone.
The sheep-like obedience to all edicts arising from this virus is troubling. Good to see some signs of push-back.
Citizens, not subjects.
95% of us(old and young) are armed and will not willingly give up our rights if it were to try to be enforced.
We watched this last night, it mostly portrays a government response:
The Crazies..."focuses on a fictional Iowa town that becomes afflicted by a military virus that turns those infected into violent killers."
The fact they go crazy isn't really important to the plot, they could just as well fall over dead, but it increases the initial tension.
Sebastian Because isolating old people for real would infringe on "our rights," we have to devastate much of the economy, forcing a whole lot of not-old people to give up their rights -- to liberty and the pursuit of happiness, to having contractual rights enforced, and to a quality education, for starters.
Forcing anyone of any age, who is not contagious**, to be housebound in a government enforced house arrest......should be forbidden for everyone. Forcing business to close. Forbidding people to purchase items because some twat thinks that they aren't necessary...on and on and on.....NONE of this should be allowed.
Yeah. You want to say it is for my own good. Sorry. I don't believe you and that would just be the beginning of taking away rights....for our own good. The decision of who deserves to have rights or be free.... of course being made by Gubbmint bureaucrats and petty dictators like in Michigan and Californicate-U
Rights are for everyone. Not just certain selected age groups or specific demographics. Perhaps we should put all Asian people in house arrest just to be safe. Maybe Black people since they seem to be getting sicker in larger numbers.
When would it end? The answer.. Never.
** if you are actually contagious you should be isolated or in medical care. ACTUALLY sick, not just in an arbitrary category where you might maybe possibly be at risk.
This is one of those articles that when you have even a bit of knowledge about the subject matter the article reads terribly.
A few notes on Korea, for example:
1. Massive efficient testing system setup
2. Careful borders setup immediately with screening of people crossing those borders for fevers/visible symptoms and then immediate testing/quarantining
3. Pretty darn good cultural hygiene practices and recent exposure to other coronovirii....including the fact that their damn public health institutions didn't tell people NOT to wear face masks early on.
...
On contact tracing - in the U.S. you could do both digital and human contact tracing. There's such a thing as volunteering too - asking citizens to sign up for alerts and the ability to communicate with them about exposure risks/contacts.
You don't need 100% volunteer rates either.
Test, trace, isolate, vaccinate is the traditional method. It is proven, and compared to the others it has always been low cost. It eradicated small pox. It stopped epidemics.
It’s less certain to work if you lack a vaccine but is still effective.
It’s also difficult if there are too many cases.
There are alternatives. One is mass testing with badges for the infection free and the immune. I expect the usual suspects will object to that too. As for me I won’t go to the gym until I have a test proving I am not a spreader, and that everyone else at the gym has one too.
No, of course people don’t answer phones, and if the volunteer spends 45 minutes a person nattering away the whole scheme collapses.
Like a lot of people, I'm amazed at how patiently Americans have put up with the lockdown. It almost seems that Sweden has kept up its attachment to personal choices more than the U.S. I worked in a road safety office, and I keep thinking of a great Malcolm Gladwell piece on how Americans resisted the use of seat belts. There was some discomfort with the early generations of seat belts, but they have always saved lives. And this is really: save your own ass, not hope in some indirect way to save granny's life. The stuff about being trapped underwater was almost entirely bullshit. The combination of seat belts plus air bags is better than either alone, but if you have to choose one, seat belts is more critical. Ralph Nader admitted that he gave up on trying to get Americans to wear seat belts--air bags were "passive" and therefore no hassle in your precious private space.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2001/06/11/wrong-turn
TreeJoe- I understand what you're saying, but on the topic of volunteering, it has to actually be volunteering. In Michigan they're already practicing 'volunteering'. They will either volunteer on their own or they'll be made to volunteer.
Sometimes the word is misused to sound good.
DBQ, I agree with your philosophy. Unfortunately, we the people have ceded our rights to the govt protection racket. "its for the children" is not just snark. Examples are by the thousands. When my kid got his provisional drivers license at 16, he was limited to where and when he was allowed to drive. Day light hours, school, or work. Thats it. When we took a short vacation, I thought he could come get us at the airport. Nope. Outside the pre approved. BUT, his employer could get an exception for him when he closed, and worked past 11pm. Also the school principle could grant an exception for late play practice. But as a parent, I did not have the power.
Again I agree with your philosophy. But that ship has sailed. If we are going to allow this elaborate theater to exist, defining the goal, and structuring a process to achieve that goal, is the only answer.
If, big if, the goal is to prevent death, then the best process is to protect that small population most at risk.
I am willing to entertain the REAL goal is not preventing death. That's a different debate.
Left Bank
I would. I bet I am in the minority in this group.
TreeJoe
Outstanding comment.
Re: Bleachbit and Hammers:
I think the apps are changing all the time and I haven't checked w relatives about the app recently, but I think the government is "encouraging" people who test positive or were in close contact with someone positive and are required to self-quarantine to install an app which tracks their location and harvests their location history. They are also required to input their temperature and data on their condition periodically. If they disable location tracking or fail to input data they get a phone call warning them that if they don't comply they'll be fined or forcibly quarantined or something (I am unclear on the penalties).
Meanwhile, everyone else in the country gets push text messages when they come into proximity with a location that was frequented by someone who tested positive. They're given a link to the local website tracking coronavirus cases and where they were when so people can check whether they overlapped and are at risk.
Cloward and Piven could not be more proud.
No matter how many they hire and what they say they will do, they will use digital surveillance. It’s too ubiquitous, and easy, not to use it.
So we really should be discussing that. Temujin is right, we are already basting in digital surveillance.
"Hospitals get paid extra for Covid19 cases/deaths"
Medicare pays three times as much if they put you on a ventilator to die. So they do.
a trend
I answer my phone. It's usually a tech recruiter. They are mostly Indians or Pakis, they mispronounce my name, and ask if I am interested in new opportunities. I am, but usually not the one they're trying to fill.
If I get Covid, it will be from my kids. Nobody is tracking them.
This whole event is being managed by people intent on increasing their own power. The modelers, the epidemiologist, that interpret those models. The agencies charged with studying disease spread. Bureaucrats charged with inventing processes. Down the list. Now we need more fulltime govt employees, Specialist trained in surveillance and contract tracing.
Sounds a lot like TSA screeners. Remember how we got those? I remember they failed checks of baggage carrying banned items at a rate exceeding 80%.
Its plain to see where this is going.
In the end, seasonal flu.
If I get the 'Rona I hope it's sexually transmitted.
In my county in NC, which is in the third most populous in the state with 530,000 or so people without the Wuhan virus and 131 identified people with it, we have had 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1 new cases reported over the last 9 days. I think this is what Ken B would call a double secret exponential increase. We don’t need electronic tracking to track contacts. We don’t even need a phone. We can do it all with shoe leather and notepad. Some numbers from the state website: In the state, we currently average 55 cases per county over 93 counties. We have had 117 people who have died while testing positive for Wuflu, but only one county has had more than 10 deaths (being the most populous county it has had 15) and 44 counties have had none. The state quit providing comorbidity information, apparently because95% of the deceased had one or more and it wasn't helping the narrative. The median number of deaths per county is one, the average is 1.25. We have 431 in the state hospitalized out of a population of 10.5 million, or around 4.5 patients per county or 3.4 per each of the 126 hospitals in the state. So the numbers don’t lie – it’s a fucking pandemic! Fortunately our governor just extended the state’s stay at home for at least another 30 days, apparently in a valiant but likely vain attempt to reduce the infection rate to below zero. He’s doing other proactive things to support the citizenry as well, including sending the Raleigh police department to break up a protest by citizens who feel he might be just a little too heavy handed and thereby proving those protesters to be right. Got to keep up with the Cuomo’s you know. The smart money says that if he extends the stay at home order again he’s going to be looking at the grass from the root side. We’ll see.
Contact tracer could be a great job. How much does it pay? Could you set up an auto-dial and voice script so you could go play golf while the software harasses all these people with instant memory tests?
The job seems highly labor intensive and thus millions of us could be employed calling each other to find out what our recent social network and other activity looks like. That would lower the unemployment figure, and to ensure enough labor the government could make our benefit checks contingent on our taking on the work. Which would not solve the Wu Flu problem (due to high R nought and long period of asymptomatic infection) but would keep us all busy and compliant, building an awesome database of personal connectedness and activity.
One last thought: HIPAA. Have we not deliberately blinded ourselves in our efforts to interrogate medical records for public health purposes in running epidemiological searches: which demographics are hardest hit, etc. I would think HIPAA has meant we do not collect, or cannot easily share, some important parameters if they cannot be “de-identified” to protect patient privacy. Ironic, that we make such a fetish of patient privacy while rushing to embrace GPS tracking of every twitch and click and meandering of every last one of us outside of a medical record context.
Should be an app for oppting in to contact tracing. I would like to know if I have been near someone who was contagious. I know Scott Adams caught hell for suggesting it. But it coming, I do not see a way to stop the the technology.
Should be an app for oppting in to contact tracing. I would like to know if I have been near someone who was contagious. I know Scott Adams caught hell for suggesting it. But it coming, I do not see a way to stop the the technology.
Owen said...
Contact tracer could be a great job.
4/16/20, 9:42 AM
Only if you get some James Bond type gadgets. Something with lasers. Maybe a dart gun (I said DART not FART). Directional microphone. Stuff like that!
Koot Should be an app for oppting in to contact tracing. I would like to know if I have been near someone who was contagious.
Opting in is the best idea. However, the effectiveness of that would only work IF everyone actually has 'smart phones' and if more people than not opt in.
You are assuming that everyone has apps on their phones or has phones that can use apps.
Isn't going to happen.
DBQ
Contact tracing doesn’t have to be perfect to be effective. You also underestimate how well they can track you with even just a dumb phone, via tower triangulation. Which they can do to all of us without any app or permission already.
DBQ: "Yeah. You want to say it is for my own good"
No, it is for our good. The point of the shutdowns is to preserve health capacity and to keep old and sick people from dying. Therefore, we have imposed draconian measures on people, depriving them of their rights. That was done not even for their own good, for other people's good -- which have been defined as "our" good.
Now I am fine with saying that people should be able to decide what's in their own interest, act accordingly, and face the consequences. But the other side of that deal is that the rest of us then don't have the responsibility to deal with the consequences of their mistakes. Since as a country we no longer believe in personal responsibility and will in fact take care of people who get sick, and since we already established that rights of people entirely unaffected by any danger can be trampled, it is right to now deprive old and sick people of their "rights" and impose an actual quarantine.
Sure, ideally, we'd want to make fine distinctions -- I trust the DBQs of America. But since we can't, targeted isolation of the risk groups, but not of everyone else, is far more rational than the ruinous policies we have pursued.
Of course, the very reaction of old people among otherwise sensible commentators shows it would be very hard to do. No visits? "F$*k that!" Isolate me? We are armed! And so on. Hence we all get it, good and hard.
Ken You also underestimate how well they can track you with even just a dumb phone, via tower triangulation.
True. However, if anyone is tracking me....I live in a drawer in my house 90% of the time. At least that is where my phone is.
I understand there are ways to disable the GPS tracking on android phones. I haven't bothered because I don't care. Yet.
I block all unknown numbers that don't leave a message.
You are assuming that everyone has apps on their phones or has phones that can use apps.
My step sister had to work with that problem. The folks she worked for in NY had to go online and it turned out that many of the clients they served didn't have smart phones or computers.
Maybe they can pretend to call us and we can pretend to answer.
I've got my iPhone set so that unknown numbers don't even ring through. I just get a "missed call" notification. If it's important, the caller will leave a message. If it's spam, they won't. Win-win.
I’d answer my phone if the caller ID showed it to be a Covid tracker. I’d want to know if someone I was in close proximity to was exposed or has Covid. Why wouldn’t you want to know this? People are so paranoid about Big Brother. I’m pretty sure there will be numerous organizations that will be checking out the trackers to make sure the program isn’t being abused. Tracking would create jobs and give investigative journalists something to investigate for abuse.
We can learn from countries that are doing it successfully right now
Inga: Abuse of power is a recognized negative effect of having power. See Lord Acton's epigram. See the FISA warrants to surveille Trump's campaign. See FDR's interning of Japanese in WWII. See Nixon's coverup of Watergate. See the Clinton Foundation. See Obama's Fast & Furious.
In this country we have usually found it more efficient to prevent anyone having the power to abuse others in such a totalitarian manner, rather than having to clean up the mess once power, as is inevitable, has been used to abuse the citizenry.
Phone tracking the citizenry, without their consent, is unconstitutional on its face, as it violates the 1st and 4th Amendments.
Ironic, an invasion of privacy in order to reduce excess deaths. One hundred thousand? One million, annually? Is that "constitutional" under the Twilight Amendment?
@Inga, on a thread yesterday or the day before you seemed to be asserting that COVID-19 is killing people via a cytokine storm. Can you point me to an article that substantiates that? As a well-read lay person I had been under the impression that cytokine storms were less dangerous to very old people than to healthy young adults.
The pandemic is probable cause for skip tracing everyone. No constitutional issue.
“@Inga, on a thread yesterday or the day before you seemed to be asserting that COVID-19 is killing people via a cytokine storm.”
It wasn’t I who asserted it, although I did wonder about it. It was a topic under discussion on that thread. Several other people besides myself have mentioned it it on some of the many Covid threads. Covid seems to be killing people by other processes also.
“Can you point me to an article that substantiates that? As a well-read lay person I had been under the impression that cytokine storms were less dangerous to very old people than to healthy young adults.”
I don’t know why some elderly Covid patients are succumbing to cytokine storm, or how many of them actually have a cytokine storm reaction. There is so so much the expert’s don’t know about Covid yet.
What Is The Cytokine Storm And Why Is It So Deadly For COVID-19 Patients?
Business leaders warn Trump of the importance of testing and keeping the virus under control
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/04/15/closing-time-488927
Be cause mass illness is bad for the economy. Who knew, right?
Another possible strategy, not based on contact tracing https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01453
I am pretty skeptical about this idea. If you have the Inga structure to support it you can do test based sequestering instead. But it’s worth considering various ideas.
We just aren't a serious people any longer. We are governed by morons, and we are morons ourselves.
Test and trace is a fucking joke at this stage- it only is effective at the very beginning when the numbers of infected and their contacts are low. If it isn't successful at that beginning stage, you can basically give up on it- it wastes resources trying to effectively contact 1000x10x10x10 people. The digital solutions are better practically speaking in that it wastes fewer resources, but the truth is that most people will just ignore the automated messages, and even when they don't, it won't change their behavior unless they are actually sick, but then you don't need the message at this point to treat an illness seriously.
The only countries that have done this successfully at the start are essentially all islands (even South Korea) with experience from the SARS outbreak- that is it- everyone else couldn't contain it at the early stage. And here is the thing- all those successful countries will have to hope for a vaccine because, otherwise, they will eventually end up in the same place the US and Europe are today, but just a year from now. Such strict monitoring always fails eventually when the virus can't be eradicated- and COVID-19 won't be eradicated like SARS and MERS- it is now endemic.
Another look at testing. This is much more in line with my thinking. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57d002e01b631bc215df193b/t/5e96e6ad445bca269b0671c0/1586947760671/stratified_periodic_testing_2_p.pdf
Romer's plan was extremely idiotic and I wrote as much the day Tyler Cowen linked to it on MarginalRevolution. The Cleevely etal. one is just slightly less idiotic.
There is a reason you can't do more than about 200,000 tests per day now, Ken. Every single one of these pie-in-the-sky plans for defeating COVID-19 with massR testing completely ignores the involved and complicated process of sampling. The only way mass testing works if people sample themselves and mail in the samples, and even that runs into bottlenecks than no one seems to actually pay much attention to when they write these ridiculous papers.
People just don't fucking get it- the US and Europe' Schengen Area simply had too many nodes of entry to and from the rest of the world to stop this in its tracks the way Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore did. How many international airports did Taiwan have to monitor? How many did South Korea have to monitor? Singapore?
The only chance to stop this was stopping it in China- once it spread from there, the die was cast. We have already taken the only practical steps we can- have sick people self-isolate for 14 days; encourage the wearing of masks in public; and most mass transit around the country has ground to a stop- no is flying, and fewer and fewer people are traveling by bus and trains. Most of the geographical US can be reopened- cases never accelerated the way they have in the urban areas, and probably never will given the changes in social behaviors.
That’s why you have to staged, targeted testing. And the serum tests so that you know who is safe. And different approaches in different places too. But your main point is spot on: we aren’t able to start this tomorrow. That suggests something about not opening tomorrow ...
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Ken, we won't be ready to conduct this sort of regime a year from now. That is why the plan was ridiculous. You have become ridiculous.
Ken, we won't be ready to conduct this sort of regime a year from now. That is why the plan was ridiculous. You have become ridiculous.
I, for one, do not answer the phone unless the person speaks to my answering machine so I would miss all three calls.
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Contact tracing???
Arlington County refuses to disclose which neighborhoods or even zip codes the positive cases are. The people have a right to know where the hot zones are in a community, but the progressive government refuses to say.
Todd,
" IF the legislation included explicit instructions that this national ID could NEVER be used as proof of identity for voting"
Well, how well did that kind of legislated assurance work for the Social Security Number?
Are they gonna trace illegal aliens too? Or would that just be racist or xenophobic or some shit?
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Anyhow, I think it's not "Asian" so much as a legacy of dictatorship.
All dictatorships are not Asian, but all Asian (countries) are dictatorships (or have that legacy), no? At best, for dictatorship substitute monarchy.
Hospitals get paid extra for Covid19 cases/deaths
Could I politely ask for detailed proof with cites of the claims that there are formal, financial, marginal, ongoing incentives to pump COVID stats? I ask because to merely assert it in a chat invites pushback.
Jupiter said...
"Hospitals get paid extra for Covid19 cases/deaths"
Medicare pays three times as much if they put you on a ventilator to die. So they do.
4/16/20, 9:35 AM
See, J, like this.
Sebastian said...
Apologies to Althouse, slightly OT I know, but . . .
DBQ, normally the very model of common sense, says
I think she says that let her live or let her die, but in freedom, to stay home or go out as she chooses. The ultimate expression of "protecting the people" is to swaddle them all in cotton wool, overlaid with six feet of concrete.
It would be one thing to prevent the infected from going out, but to prevent presumed non-infected from going out, because of the risk they might get sick from other people or dirty seats, that's their risk to assess.
The UK was probably on the right track with isolating only the high risk, but got shamed out of it into total lockdown, or as total as could be managed without total societal breakdown.
What cannot go on will not go on. Don't give orders that cannot and will not be obeyed. The mitigation was never promised to do anything but slow infections to a manageable (by the medical infrastructure) rate. We've done and excelled that. At the expense of sacrificing herd immunity.
I think the balance has tipped. It's time to mass unlockdown, and do tactical re-lockdowns as necessary. If the subway is a major vector, maybe we have to shut down the subway. I don't know how life goes on then, but "if one life is saved," right?
Be nice if self-driving cars worked now and we could flood NYC with robo-taxis that could sanitize themselves after each passenger dropoff. Or even human-driven cabs with such hygiene, and a totally sealed passenger compartment, cashless.
Oh, and stop trying to stop the signal on HCQ+Z+zinc. By all means work on alternative treatments, but any death in NY, for instance, where HCQ was not tried, is on Andrew Cuomo's head.
It seems to me that one voluntary method of contact tracing would be to widely publicize something like "covidcontact.gov" where infected people can voluntarily list people they have been in contact with. Uninfected or not-yet-identified people could voluntarily enter their names to be matched. It would be cheaper than phone calls and depend on civic virtue which, at least in my part of the country -- central TX, has been demonstrated time and time again. Of course, there are many reasons this system would not be a perfect success -- only knowing nicknames, for example. However, for our American context, it may be the best possible.
I think that our government is forgetting how much people will do for the good of themselves and others without being compelled to it. Weeks before our city instituted a mandatory mask order, most people in line at my Costco were wearing masks and looked askance at those who were not.
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