"... according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease. The researchers conducted genetic sequencing of two virus samples. One is from a patient who traveled from China to Snohomish County in mid-January and was the first person diagnosed with the disease in the United States. The other came from a recently diagnosed patient in the same county, a high school student with no travel-related or other known exposure to the coronavirus. The two samples look almost identical genetically, said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle who announced the results of the research on Twitter late Saturday night. 'This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks,' Bedford wrote. 'I believe we’re facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.'... Bedford said it is possible but very unlikely that the genetic similarity of the two virus samples could be a coincidence and reflect two distinct introductions of the virus into Snohomish County by infected travelers, rather than sustained person-to-person spread within the community.... 'It is far from definitive,' [a CDC] official said. 'The particular strain found in these two samples is widespread in China and elsewhere. It’s possible that someone else introduced the virus into the community 'that we didn’t pick up,' the official said. But this research could be evidence that the highly contagious virus has eluded efforts to contain it through travel bans, quarantines and other interventions. The virus may have been spreading in parts of Washington state among people who didn’t realize they were infected by it — they may have thought they had a cold or the flu."
WaPo reports.
१३८ टिप्पण्या:
Seattle's global economy does have a downside.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/01/the-coronavirus-numbers-are-not-quite-what-they-seem/
as pointed out, in the earlier link, an Obama administration holdover, William walters, allowed the first wave of infectees,
the secret secret secret, is that IF they tested everyone in the world; they'd find that the fatality rate for this covfefe19 virus is less than the common cold.
It is SO MILD, and has SO FEW SYMPTOMS; that 99% of the people with it, never knew they were sick
This could also bee seen as fairly good news; it's not particularly deadly, as 1) this cryptic transmission has produced almost no fatalities because 2) the two patients who have died already had compromised respiration.
The virus may have been spreading in parts of Washington state among people who didn’t realize they were infected by it — they may have thought they had a cold or the flu.
It's not the flu?
Of course there are outbreaks. We've barely tested anyone.
I was driving along in the car and The Knack came on, and it served as some impromptu inspiration...
Ooh, my little deadly one, my deadly one
Are you gonna kill me this time, Corona!
Ooh, you make my mucus run, my mucus run
Coughing up my weight in this slime, Corona!
Never gonna stop, till I drop, such a dirty germ
Maxed all my credit cards, getting stuff, my preparation’s firm
I’m gonna die-aye-aye-aye, whooo!
Please kill the other guy-aye-aye Corona!
China wasn't welding people into their apartment buildings over cold or flu.
So. With “ordinary” seasonal flu deaths running at about 1k a day worldwide, it seems likely to me that even in remote places like Washington state there have already been corona virus deaths that were simply chalked up to ordinary flu.
A year from now there will be a chart with 2 graph lines, one line showing expected flu deaths in a normal year, and a second line showing actual flue deaths. The difference between the 2 lines will be the accepted corona virus death toll.
The question that only time can tell is will the difference be 50%, 1x, 10xor 100x.
Hardest hit industries? Life insurance companies, and nursing homes.
there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks
That sounds like good news to me. If the incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms, these numbers suggest the illness is not too severe for healthy people in the first world.
Of course there is a lot of economic pain coming just by reduced travel, quarantined and possible layoffs due to supply chain issues.
No president wants to be in, even a mild, recession in an election year. Ask GHWBush.
I wonder if this will wipe out the bum encampments in Seattle.
Coronavirus, doing the job your government won't do.
RNA viruses are very subject to mutation during replication, which is what the genetic similarity is about.
The same strain is probably in all cases there.
The return of the Americans from China and the cruise ship was done without authorization, which is what narciso referred to above. The HHS employees exposed is another part of the screwup by underlings who think they are in charge,
If I was concerned but on the fence before, now I’m leaning more towards the likelihood that this will blow up into a huge problem. We’ll probably know one way or another in a couple weeks.
Next year could be interesting. If a stealth bug mutated into something more deadly. . .
If coronavirus sweeps into the homeless communities, those people will now have homes. It will either be in a hospital or a graveyard, but it will be a home.
THEOLDMAN
"Hardest hit industries? Life insurance companies, and nursing homes."
Maybe.
The corona virus is killing those who cost insurers the most, the old with heart or diabetic condition. Over 70 is 22% of deaths, under 5 is zero. Mostly the older people had a heart problem or diabetes.
“China wasn't welding people into their apartment buildings over cold or flu.”
Indeed and maybe it’s a mistake to downplay the virulence and communicabilty of this new respiratory virus.
Hardest hit industries? Life insurance companies...
Speaking as someone that spent their working life tending the computers of a big insurance co;
The Life insurance people couldn't be less hit. Covfefe19 only seems to kill poor, old people
Poor, old people aren't paying premiums on life insurance
If they have life insurance, the company has Already recovered their money by that time
Life Insurance companies would only be concerned IF: the virus killed 30 white collar folk
'cause THOSE folk have Just Bought their life insurance (right after their 2nd child)
30ish white collar folk
I wonder if this will wipe out the bum encampments in Seattle.
Nope. It would lead to a LOT of deaths, but not wipe them out. But it would overwhelm the hospital and other care facilities in the area.
I would also wipe out the tourist industry if cities like Seattle, San Fran and LA are obvious hot spots.
People were traveling and becoming infected before there was acknowledgment that there was a teensy bit of an issue. Chinese New Year travelers helped disperse a potential Jackwagon load of carriers everywhere.
I would wager that there were and are a whole bunch of people infected - thinking cold or the "regular" flu - were sick, got well. They've just not been identified.
My husband was tapped, 2 weeks ago, to go to Bratislava the 2nd week of March. His company isn't curtailing travel into the middle of the war zone. I'm not pleased about this at all because we have potential issues in the family that might make him, me, and our adult daughter and son susceptible to the more dangerous aspects. However, we may have already been infected and are fine, so who knows.
J. Farmer said...
this will blow up into a huge problem. We’ll probably know one way or another in a couple weeks
it COULD
and IF it does, we won't be able to stop it.
BUT! it seems much more likely to me, that it will deflate into a nothingness
One thing's for sure, we WILL know one way or another in a couple of weeks (or, days)
My wife and I were discussing the 2009 H1N1 pandemic this morning. She remembered it well because it had some impact on her job but I had completely forgotten about it. Did a little research online and learned that over 250K people in the US were inflected by it and about 2600 died. It appeared to enter the US via Mexico. The Obama administration waited t months and over 1000 US deaths before declaring an emergency and taking action. It ran its course and faded away late in the year. Even so, I don’t recall the hysteria surrounding that pandemic nor the huge stock market collapse due to it. H1N1 was considered a very serious virus.
What’s different this time?
@ Lucid
Awesome!
“...t months” should have read “...6 months” in my post above.
“Covfefe19 only seems to kill poor, old people”
This is an ignorant comment. Covid-19 has been killing people that were previously healthy in China and elsewhere. Pregnant women are at heightened risk as well as the elderly, but younger healthier people are dying too and they certainly aren’t all poor.
You're right Freeman, except that how many regular Chinese already have respiratory issues because of Chinese pollution? That could account for a higher death rate than other places.
It does seem to be hitting Iran hard though...
If it's been transmitting for 6 weeks and people aren't dropping like flies, does that mean anything?
J Farmer: As of last night, the re-infection and death numbers have trended down to Spanish Flu levels, not bad, not good. However, the rates are expected to drop with better institutional controls and earlier medical intervention. I'm praying for the Deep State at HHS to win this one. I'm all stocked up on albuterol vials for my vaporizer.
I would be interested to hear from Doc Mike on what he recommends to do if you get hit with Corona.
@MountainMan:
OrangeMan in the White House. The press had and has a job to do, which is mostly de-emphasizing news that might make Democrats look bad, and *emphasizing* news that might make Republicans - especially this President - look awful. They'll even invent things (i.e. virus is a hoax) to further that narrative.
WaPo reports.
Important caveat.
Have more people died of the flu in this county than usual in the past six weeks?
"If a stealth bug mutated into something more deadly."
Virus - it has one job. To make copies of itself through a host. Mutating into a worse virus that kills the host would kill the virus too. Not a sound strategy for longevity.
Saw a few recent articles that point to high dosage of aspirin had an impact on mortality for Spanish flu epidemic. Govt recommended treatments.
Birchesw: Great Point... The PM 2.5 (air pollution not filtered by sinus nor cilia => into bloodstream) is off the hook in China and India. It's also higher in diesel loving Europe. PM2.5 levels are also proxies for Nox, Sox, Ozone, toxic VOCs, Carbon Monoxide, lead...
If it was spreading undetected as long as this seems to imply, then it's not as bad as feared.
I have to guess that Corona virus is all over the west coast, and has been for 1-2 months. It has been undetected because Corona is a very mild illness in the vast majority of cases. This epidemic could be a bit of a dud, especially when compared to the drooling, panicky predictions of the democrats and their media confederates.
Saw a few recent articles that point to high dosage of aspirin had an impact on mortality for Spanish flu epidemic.
Those were very high doses, far above what we use now. We also know about Reyes Syndrome now.
Reye’s syndrome usually occurs in children who have had a recent viral infection, such as chickenpox or the flu. Taking aspirin to treat such an infection greatly increases the risk of Reye’s.
I would be interested to hear from Doc Mike on what he recommends to do if you get hit with Corona.
Try not to be as old as I am. I am waiting to learn the results of Remdesivir trials in severe pneumonia cases.
I’m leaning more towards the likelihood that this will blow up into a huge problem
Hmm. I'm going the other way now. We'll see.
Gist of this WP article - Trump's travel ban not that effective. All else is the fog of war. Who is this [CDC] official and is this person stating an official CDC position?
Animated graph showing the different viruses from day one to the end of the outbreak, Covid19 spreads the quickest at day 45 or so, but H1N1Swine Flu goes up to much higher numbers of infection.
Some of these medical 'experts' on television who are telling people not to wear masks to help prevent infection are probably doing so because of the unavailability of masks which were mostly imported from China [90%]. The idiot on Fox Business news [Dr. Marc Siegel] just said that wearing masks could actually make you more vulnerable.[!] Simple logic would dictate that a mask is keeping out a large percentage of infectious droplets and also would keep the wearer from touching his/her mouth and nose.
So far this epidemic is anemic. The only thing pandemic is panic.
"If it's been transmitting for 6 weeks and people aren't dropping like flies, does that mean anything?
Yes, it means the ChiCom flu is boring me to death!
The video is a bit dated though, as it only goes up to February 10th and 40,000 or so cases of Covid19, which we know is now up to over 85,000. So who knows which virus will end up being the worst, Swine Flu or this Covid19 by the end of the outbreak.
2009 H1N1 was the only time our school district brought in doctors to administer flu vaccine to children living within our district boundaries. It was done on a Saturday and for some reason I wasn’t available to take our son so my husband did.
I live near near Kirkland in Wa. Had a cold last week. Wonder if it was the virus? There was some virus going around. It is plain it is out in the population if people have it from no known source. I went to a Chick Fila over the weekend. Most of the staff there had obvious cold symptoms. Wait and see I guess.
Michael K said...
if you get hit with Corona.
Try not to be as old as I am.
but! But! BUT! but Igna says, that the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of cases afflict
Young
Healthy
non poor
people!!!
I have to choose, between TWO people's medical 'knowledge'? Dr. K's? Or Igna's?
hmmm...
That IS a tough choice
"...because of the unavailability of masks which were mostly imported from China [90%]."
That and the fact that the ones that are available need to be saved for health care workers. That was posted by a friend of a friend who is a nurse. I get the reasoning. We need healthy doctors and nurses to care for the I'll - and not just those who may have been infected with this virus; but, less sick people from this would mean less strain on our health services. What to do, what to do...
‘...but! But! BUT! but Igna says, that the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of cases afflict
Young
Healthy
non poor
people!!!
I have to choose, between TWO people's medical 'knowledge'? Dr. K's? Or Igna's?
hmmm...
That IS a tough choice’
BUT BUT BUT, if you weren’t such a hyperbolic idiot you’d realize that’s NOT what I asserted at all. Dumbass.
Over the last 3 years, according to the CDC, there have been over 133,000 deaths attributed to influenza A or B. Now, I'm not here to downplay the potential danger of coronavirus, but I'm trending toward thinking that we're looking at another global media machine story that got out of control. More than the disease itself, the story got out of control and spread. We should be studying how this story blew up.
133,000+ deaths over the last 3 years from the flu. That's just under 45,000 per year- on the average. We just had the first death via corona virus in the US and the headlines are screaming.
Am I missing something here? I'm open to suggestions, but I have to say, I'm smelling a bad variation of the flu, that has morphed into the End of World. Not in reality, but in our collective storytelling. Again- help me out here. Am I wrong?
PS- I'm traveling to Seattle in a couple of weeks to spend a week visiting grandkids.
Blogger MountainMan said...
My wife and I were discussing the 2009 H1N1 pandemic this morning... The Obama administration waited t months and over 1000 US deaths before declaring an emergency and taking action. It ran its course and faded away late in the year. Even so, I don’t recall the hysteria surrounding that pandemic nor the huge stock market collapse due to it. H1N1 was considered a very serious virus.
What’s different this time?
1: It's an election year, and the press wants to make the President look bad
2: China is MUCH more in companies' supply chains than they were in 2009. So we're facing a lot more economic effects from China's problems this time, than we did in 2009
Gilbar, Inga is right in this instance. Women have a suppressed immune system because of pregnancy making them more susceptible; and very healthy people, like young adults, may exhibit a very strong immune system response. It's called a cytokine storm. That's what kills you - an overreaction from a very strong immune system.
“It's called a cytokine storm. That's what kills you - an overreaction from a very strong immune system.”
The Spanish flu in 1918 was an Avian flu type that killed more young healthy people, related to the Cytokine Storm phenomenon. Covid19 so far seems to be hitting the elderly more but not exclusively as Gilbat asserts. Young pregnant women have been hit hard in China as well as older, or immune compromised people.
Karen of Tejas: "Gilbar, Inga is right in this instance. Women have a suppressed immune system because of pregnancy making them more susceptible; and very healthy people, like young adults, may exhibit a very strong immune system response. It's called a cytokine storm. That's what kills you - an overreaction from a very strong immune system."
Didn't cytokine storm response play a strong role in the Spanish flu deaths of younger people?
I seem to recall reading up quite a bit on that after, of all things, a Downton Abbey episode where a character was killed off in that way.
isn't it Interesting?
that When a country hasn't done ANY Testing, they are covfefe19 free?
But, when they Start testing; the More They Test, the more cases they find?
Washington State has not descended into a hellpit of plagued devastation despite the virus almost certainly circulating within its borders for the last six weeks, surely the media will think about that and stop fearmongering.
Ahahahahahahahahaha sorry that was a dumb thing to say, obviously.
“ Try not to be as old as I am. I am waiting to learn the results of Remdesivir trials in severe pneumonia cases.”
Sucks to get old. Those of us about Ann’s age are finding this out.
What is somewhat unique about humans as compared with other animals is that we we have a long period of senescence combined with a longer period of infertility or impotence. Part of it is our extended period of dependency. But a woman living into her 90s may have spent the last half of her life infertile. Why is all this weird? Because resources spent beyond breeding ages don’t go directly into the number or quality of descendants produced. Why spend those resources then, when we can no longer reproduce? (And for the women here, why menopause in the first place?). At best extended dependency could justify maybe a decade of life beyond fertility. We usually get much more these days. Part of the answer is that grandparents can have enough usefulness to justify the expense in resources, but not great grandparents. Which is why many of us here, at least the more verbal of us, are quickly heading into that great grandparent age, where we have less use to the species, and esp our part of it.
Gregg: "2: China is MUCH more in companies' supply chains than they were in 2009. So we're facing a lot more economic effects from China's problems this time, than we did in 2009"
Oh, its so very much worse than that.
China is also where 90%+ of our vaccines were being made! And where so many of our medical supplies were manufactured.
This is insane. Our moronic and, one could make a case for, economically traitorous UniParty establishment crew basically handed control of key survival capacities into the hands of the ChiComs since the early 1990's through the horrendous trade deals and the WTO.
In the future, if we actually continue to have one since there is no Universal Law of Americans Living In A Democratic Republic Forever, people will look back and wonder why the US and the west in general was so very anxious to kill itself off.
Temujin said...
Now, I'm not here to downplay the potential danger of coronavirus,
I AM!
lets review
IGNA says this is a problem
What more conclusive evidence do you need? Are you waiting for Bill Krystol?
Temujin said...
Now, I'm not here to downplay the potential danger of coronavirus,
“I AM!
lets review
IGNA says this is a problem”
Go ahead and take something, anything, this idiot has to say seriously at your own risk. His problem is he is hyper focused on being funny or is simply attention seeking. His commentary usually reflects this trait. I’m not refuting anything Michael K has to say or he me. So I’d say STFU with your thread derailing ignorant commentary Gilbat. People are trying to have a serious conversation here. If you can’t keep up, drop out.
am i saying that Igna is Lying? No, I'm saying she's confused
A 36-Year-Old Man Is the Youngest Fatality of the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak So Far
For those who want more detail on the current status of Covid-19, try this site.
Bottom Line Up Front — We are likely in the low tens of thousands of COVID-19 infected in Washington state alone, simply based on the air traffic numbers in the month of January 2020 and six weeks spread at an R(O) if 4.7 to 7.0. [That is each person who gets it, spreads it to between four and seven others.] Also based on airline travel numbers for January — likely every major urban area with a Chinatown and every major American university with a Chinese student population has cases of COVID-19 developing right now.
This should be showing up in the next two weeks as local COVID-19 testing in the USA ramps up to 10,000 tests a day and reveals the above facts.
In that regard I urge readers to prepare for “mitigation” — large scale closures of everything that gather large numbers of people — as containment of the COVID-19 spread was attempted due to the failure of the CDC test regime.
The CDC showed the competence of the usual government agency,.
Igna? How many Pregnant young women die from the flu each year?
How does it compare to covfefe19 deaths?
Death is not the only concern. The healthcare system can get overwhelmed very quickly. Even if only a relatively small percentage of cases require hospitalization, mass infections can put a huge strain on healthcare providers.
Helpful Hint. It won’t be a mutation of this one that does the damage. It’ll be phase two of the Chinese bio attack on the west. This summer after coronavirus is forgotten by most of us.
R(0) is an epidemiology number that determines spread.
Tucson has the U of Arizona. I wonder how many Chinese students ?
Gilbat sez
A 36-Year-Old Man Is the Youngest Fatality of the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak So Far
Coronavirus: Newborn becomes youngest person diagnosed with virus
“ The return of the Americans from China and the cruise ship was done without authorization, which is what narciso referred to above. The HHS employees exposed is another part of the screwup by underlings who think they are in charge,”
I don’t think that was quite accurate. It was instead done under approval of a bureaucrat in direct disobedience of orders from the President. The Deep State at work, where Presidential orders are taken as mere suggestions, and ignoring that they have zero moral and Constitutional justification outside acting as his hands (this analogy from a hoary old Supreme Court case describing this relationship).
The coronavirus just killed a 29-year-old doctor who postponed his wedding to fight the disease
Over 70 is 22% of deaths, under 5 is zero. Mostly the older people had a heart problem or diabetes.
An irony: "planned parent", complementary to China and our own "planned parenthood".
Americans worried about coronavirus don't need to buy face masks, US surgeon general says
Americans worried about the coronavirus outbreak shouldn’t buy face masks to protect themselves against it because the masks are ineffective for those without symptoms -- and the purchases deplete the supplies available for medical professionals, the U.S. surgeon general said Saturday.
Separately:
The coronavirus outbreak illustrates the need for America’s economy to decouple from China, assessed Siegel.
Labor and environmental (e.g. Green) arbitrage in good times.
“Death is not the only concern. The healthcare system can get overwhelmed very quickly. Even if only a relatively small percentage of cases require hospitalization, mass infections can put a huge strain on healthcare providers.”
Exactly what happened in China and pretty rapidly.
Keep hope alive, Inga.
Economic consequences are the big story to me since I don't think we are looking at a global pandemic on the scale of the Spanish flu. It accelerates the manufacturing move out of China that was already beginning due to tarriffs and the the fact that Chinese labor isn't 'cheap' globally anymore. With the recent USMCA Mexico is the big winner here if they can get cartels and corruption under control. An already steep decline in China's GDP growth will accelerate (down to 4% next year?). There's bound to be some political unrest. China's position in the trade war is much weaker now than 2 months ago.
Inga said...
“Covfefe19 only seems to kill poor, old people”
This is an ignorant comment. Covid-19 has been killing people that were previously healthy in China and elsewhere. Pregnant women are at heightened risk as well as the elderly, but younger healthier people are dying too and they certainly aren’t all poor.
As ignorance is not a moral offense, I'm happy to be told that I'm ignorant, and to be informed accordingly. I had thought that COVID-19 was largely a eugenic disease, killing *primarily* the old, sick, weak.
This is exactly what China would want in a disease-kill off the useless eaters, and make room for more babies (if the women will it, presumably, unless China wants to go all Handmaid's Tale). If it was a deliberately engineered disease, it could have been intended for domestic use only. Don't we suspect that it is largely hitting Asians?
Now it may not be PERFECTLY targeted; that could be due to imperfect work by their scientists, to mutations, impurities, accidents. But this could be the broad intent, to kill off a hundred million Chinese retired smokers without having obviously bloody hands.
seems to have struck iran's inner circle, their health minister, the fmr ambassador to the Vatican, and now a senior advisor to the ayatollah,
>>Blogger mockturtle said...
Simple logic would dictate that a mask is keeping out a large percentage of infectious droplets and also would keep the wearer from touching his/her mouth and nose<<
Correct on the latter point but not the former. If you are wearing a standard surgical mask, as most mask-wearers are, the air you breathe doesn't come through the mask, it of course comes around the mask and pours through the gaping face/mask gaps. The only mask that protects you from inhalation of virus droplets is a fitted, sealed mask (eg., N-95). That said, the more people who wear those inadequate masks, the better I like it because it does keep them from sneezing and coughing on others. That effect has decided impact on virus spread.
There is a question if the contagion was undetected or unreported ("undocumented"), especially in high-density, cosmopolitan population centers with that policy.
Temujin: Am I missing something here? I'm open to suggestions, but I have to say, I'm smelling a bad variation of the flu, that has morphed into the End of World. Not in reality, but in our collective storytelling. Again- help me out here. Am I wrong?
Only in conflating "we" with the media. I don't watch tv news, I just pay attention to what's going on around me, locally and via regular contact with people all over the country. I see people taking reasonable precautions - companies cutting back on business travel to affected areas, scientific conferences being postponed, people taking a wait-and-see approach to personal travel. The only freaking-out I see or hear is when subjected to a tv in a public place, but nobody pays any attention, because when are they not freaking-out?
The media has been getting stupider and more hysterical by the year. It's what they do. I don't think it reflects any real public panic. Some people here are continually referring to the existence of such freak-outs though, so I may be suffering an observational bias. Other commenters - are you seeing public panics where you live?
Speaking of overwhelming the health care system. This, as of Feb.24th.
More than 3,000 Chinese healthcare workers have gotten the coronavirus, and 8 have died. A study found that 29% of infections were in medical staff.
I don't know if drinking Corona will bolster my immune system, but it can't hurt.
I still haven't seen any reaction to my honest question about this being a possibly overhyped event. Again- comparing actual deaths annually by influenza, vs how we are clearing the store shelves for the possibility that corona virus is a pandemic.
We have 45,000 deaths per year in the US from influenza vs 1-2 deaths so far from corona virus. No question the numbers for corona virus will get larger. But will they get as large as our regular 'flu season'? Will they be as deadly?
Or will it continue until the press has a new hook to get breathless about?
I've decided I'm going to wear a liquid barrier personal protective suit on the plane to Seattle. Not sure how I'll get those stupid Delta almonds in my mouth.
"More than 3,000 Chinese healthcare workers have gotten the coronavirus, and 8 have died. A study found that 29% of infections were in medical staff."
Yes, those who bathe in Covfefe-19 sometimes catch it.
I just hope that those affected don't become flesh eating zombies after death. I can see how such a complication could happen to Adam Schiff or Paul Krugman. They're at increased risk for flesh eating zombie syndrome. Death is a sorrowful event, but when your loved one becomes a flesh eating zombie, it interferes with the grieving process. Let's all pray that Adam Schiff doesn't become a flesh eating zombie as a result of this disease.
Nichevo: If it was a deliberately engineered disease, it could have been intended for domestic use only. Don't we suspect that it is largely hitting Asians?
************
Many past influenza and corona viruses have originated in Asia, including SARS, swine flue and one called..."the Asian flu".
So there's no need to go all conspiratorial over corona's origins.
And why, one asks, would anyone engineer a flu to use on their own population, when it's obvious that it is difficult to control once released? Who would be stupid enough to release a virus for which there's no cure, and no vaccine?
I think the implication of this is that coronavirus is not very deadly. A lot of people get sick, but relatively few die.
See today's stock market--it is not all about the Federal Reserve.
Inga appears desperate to equate Chinese capabilities, priorities, tactics and efforts with what the US is doing.
I wonder why that is?
“Yes, those who bathe in Covfefe-19 sometimes catch it.”
My point is that the healthcare system will quickly collapse if healthcare workers are getting Covid19 in such high percentages. My point is that hospitals and nursing homes haven’t got the isolation equipment and training it needs to keep up...yet. Hopefully by the time this thing takes off, IF it takes off as quickly as it did in China, hospitals and nursing homes will be in better shape than they are today.
Of course, we can never discount obama holdovers in govt doing whatever they can to make things worse precisely as we saw the obama holdover happily and proudly declaring they ignored executive branch directions and sent over 1000 exposed persons back to the US.
So there you have it:
Obama holdovers doing whatever they can to undermine the Trump administration directives while dems/lefties/LLR-lefties going Full Panic Mode for political purposes.
Never let a crisis go to waste, eh lefties?
“ Bottom Line Up Front — We are likely in the low tens of thousands of COVID-19 infected in Washington state alone, simply based on the air traffic numbers in the month of January 2020 and six weeks spread at an R(O) if 4.7 to 7.0. [That is each person who gets it, spreads it to between four and seven others.] Also based on airline travel numbers for January — likely every major urban area with a Chinatown and every major American university with a Chinese student population has cases of COVID-19 developing right now.”
At least so far, my gut questions those numbers. For one thing, R(0) is likely to be lower, maybe much lower, in this country, as contrasted to Wuhan, which as a population density approximately that of NYC and DC in this country, but with the disadvantage of relatively few private cars. Which means that when people move around, go to work, go shopping, etc, they are almost always vulnerable to infection. The bicyclists, those on scooters, those walking, etc, are vulnerable to contagion. Compound this with the sanitary practices of rural Chinese peasants (which is where most of the residents of Wuhan were a generation ago), which include a lot of spitting and coughing without covering mouths, and I would expect R(0) to be significantly lower in this country. Maybe. That said, Seattle may have as much, or more, fecal matter on its streets as Wuhan does (and COVID-19 has been shown to survive in such).
Obviously no doctor here, but my understanding is that COVID-19 infections typically start in the lower lungs, and ultimately move into the upper lungs, and pneumonia, before killing people. This is why so many early cases were missed in Wuhan - X-rays of the upper lungs often don’t pick up the infections, but MRIs do. A large increase in the number of cases that look like pneumonia, but don’t show infection in lung X-rays should show this explosion in COVID-19 infections. I don’t think that we have seen that. Yet.
That said - that is what appears to have happened with my partner. In early January, she came down with something that ultimately looked to us as walking pneumonia. A couple weeks later, we into the ER (with a $1,000 copay), and they did an X-ray, which came back clean. Nothing else looked out of the ordinary either. They gave her an inhaler, which helped the coughing. But for the last month, it has persisted, at a lower level. The problem is that if it actually were COVID-19, I would likely be infected by now (we have plenty of gloves and masks, but don’t use them around the house, I clean up her vomit, etc) , and have shown no symptoms.
i am man enough, to admit that i was over the top
Igna has presented evidence, of
ONE PERSON
On the ENTIRE EARTH
Under the age of thirty,
that has died from covfefe19.
He WAS a poor doctor, from a country with nearly NO health facilities;
and you Could (LITERALLY) say he just worked himself to death
But,
THERE YOU HAVE it:
When I said “Covfefe19 only seems to kill poor, old people”
I was Completely in Error. It can, and Does kill the occasional younger person
What I SHOULD HAVE SAID, was “Covfefe19 only seems to kill poor, old people”
A Covid haiku
Corona Virus
Bat sneezed on a lab guy
Who then went to lunch
Let's admit it no one hear knows what the outcome is going to be. Inga is a political hack and cherry picks data , and the same is for the other side. Ann is just click baiting. Let's all wait and see,in the meantime take the necessary smart steps. If you want stats go to worldometers.info.
Hope no one here contracts the virus.
“Yes, those who bathe in Covfefe-19 sometimes catch it”
I just mentioned being in the ER recently for something my partner had (and may still have) that could have been COVID-19. We were brought out of the waiting room quickly, but then spent four hours sitting in chairs in front of the nurses’s station, where she could easily have infected have the medical staff if she actually had the virus. And that doesn’t count the number of them, as well as EMTs, Police, other patients, etc who walked by within a couple feet of us, rarely gloved or masked. It was better than an hour before she got her chest X-ray (which excluded pneumonia, but not COVID-19).
That is why an unsuspecting medical staff get infected at such a high rate.
If they had known about the possibility of COVID-19, they probably would have at least put her in isolation, until further tests could be done. Still, and I think that it was someone from WA, showed COVID-19 symptoms, as well as having had recent travel to China, was denied COVID-19 testing by the CDC. This wasn’t that long ago, and turned out to have been infected. But the hospital, at least, treated him as if he might have been infected. Big difference from a month earlier.
Temujin said... [hush][hide comment]
I still haven't seen any reaction to my honest question about this being a possibly overhyped event. Again- comparing actual deaths annually by influenza, vs how we are clearing the store shelves for the possibility that corona virus is a pandemic.
We have 45,000 deaths per year in the US from influenza vs 1-2 deaths so far from corona virus. No question the numbers for corona virus will get larger. But will they get as large as our regular 'flu season'? Will they be as deadly?
Or will it continue until the press has a new hook to get breathless about?
I've decided I'm going to wear a liquid barrier personal protective suit on the plane to Seattle. Not sure how I'll get those stupid Delta almonds in my mouth.
3/2/20, 10:19 AM
Well, like most things I am trying to take a measured approach. I tend to discount/question ANYTHING put out by the news/Government (look how long they lied about AIDS back in the day). I also don't want to be caught flat-footed.
I am stocking up on "extra" supplies a little at a time. Stuff I would/will use anyway. Just getting a little extra of the non-perishables than normal (which is only safe planning anyway). Already have some but adding to it.
Am also getting some N99s when I can. Already have a few N95s. Again, I will wind up using them anyway so it is not a waste (various garage hobbies that involve stuff you don't want in your lungs). Adding a little to the silver and lead stores is not stupid either. The silver does not "go bad" and I can always use the lead at the range.
No "panic buying", just upped the "prudent planning" a little.
This will likely turn out to be nothing but if it isn't nothing?!? Also, don't forget about the next "likely nothing" as there will be one.
Everyone should already have some stored water and food (and if you live in a free state, the means to keep them). Everyone should have at least 4 or 5 extra days worth of food/water around. Two weeks preferred. Even if the next disaster (weather or whatever) is not that bad, why go out and mix with that if you don't have to? Recovery from "stuff" is easier if you spent some time preparing/planning beforehand.
Well living in King County, so far the biggest issue here is the PANIC buying of anything and everything at the local stores after our esteemed idiot governor declared an emergency on TV (I know he did it to get federal assistance, but he could have been less of in a panic about how he did it).
So if you are just trying to go about your daily life, it is now more difficult as the rice, pasta, etc. has been bought out. Same for bottled water, bleach, hand sanitizer and forget any masks wat all - unloess you want to buy at outrageous prices on amazon.
Sigh. I think the virus was a lab leak in Wuhan sometime late November or early December and the CCP did the usual for totalitarian govs and clamped donw on all info and punished anybobdy who tried to speak out. Becasue of their initial reaction, the virus is much farther spread than is being admitted.
I hope, though, that it turns out to be no worse than SARS or H1N1. I also hope that the folks at the old folks home in Kirkland fair well, and that teh first responders and school kids who visited said home also fair well.
So keep all in your prayers and wash your damn hands, and for dogs sake stay home if your sick.
Temujin: I still haven't seen any reaction to my honest question about this being a possibly overhyped event. Again- comparing actual deaths annually by influenza...
I did respond, above.
1) Yes, it is over-hyped -*by the media*. Of course it is. Would you expect otherwise from them?
2) No, it is not being over-reacted to, by the general public or by public health measures taken to date. (Flight restrictions, quarantines, etc.) As I have repeated several times on covid posts: Yes, it doesn't seem likely that it will take a toll any worse than the annual flu here, but public health officials do not have the luxury of making decisions by hindsight. (A variety of factors go into those decisions. I don't know why some people persist in thinking that those decisions are, or should be, made for any particular outbreak merely by reference to average annual flu stats.) And it's possible that those public health measures will be what helps to keep the toll within "standard annual flu" limits.
I don't think it would be reckless of you to decide to visit your grandkids in a Seattle in a couple of weeks, but nor do I think it would be an instance of irrational panic for you to decide to postpone your trip, or prefer not to travel by air right now. (Some people avoid air travel, etc., in normal flu season, and I wouldn't consider them hopelessly irrational.)
Arashi: Well living in King County, so far the biggest issue here is the PANIC buying of anything and everything at the local stores after our esteemed idiot governor declared an emergency on TV (I know he did it to get federal assistance, but he could have been less of in a panic about how he did it).
So if you are just trying to go about your daily life, it is now more difficult as the rice, pasta, etc. has been bought out. Same for bottled water, bleach, hand sanitizer and forget any masks wat all - unloess you want to buy at outrageous prices on amazon.
OK, I stand corrected. There is some panicky behavior going on. (But hey, Seattle...)
I doubt it is six weeks, probably better measured in months, maybe even years.
There is a fallacy at work here- the assumption that COVID-19 was identified the first time it showed itself on the planet Earth six weeks ago. The probability of this being true is quite remote- the far more likely case is that it was identified the first time someone decided to look into a particular set of deaths. My point is that pneumonia isn't uncommon, nor are deaths from pneumonia itself. In a city like Wuhan, 10 deaths in a month from pneumonia might not peak anyone's interest for some time. Even if Wuhan is where it all began, it is far more likely that the disease was there a year ago or more.
What I would like to see is this- has the CDC done random sampling using their test for COVID-19? I am pretty sure they haven't done this- to date, they are only testing people they suspect have the virus from either contacts or actual symptoms of illness.
All in all, if the disease has been running around Washington state for 6 weeks or more, I would take this as good news of a kind- it would suggest to me that the disease isn't particularly deadly after all. In any case, we no longer have to worry about stopping it because it can't be stopped if it is really that contagious- we can focus our efforts at treatment instead.
Angle-Dyne, Samurai Buzzard- Thanks for the comments. I agree with all of your points.
Ice Nine contends: Correct on the latter point but not the former. If you are wearing a standard surgical mask, as most mask-wearers are, the air you breathe doesn't come through the mask, it of course comes around the mask and pours through the gaping face/mask gaps.
OK, so medical personnel wear gowns and masks into an isolation patient's rooms because...?
“OK, so medical personnel wear gowns and masks into an isolation patient's rooms because...?”
It depends on how airborne, if at all some of these illnesses are that staff needs to gown up for. Shingles, MRSA, C Diff, not airborne. It’s now being debated if Covid19 is airborne in the strictest definition. It may only be droplets, but I’ve read that some of the droplets are actually small enough to be able to get through regular surgical masks.
So, The Black Death comes to WA State.
If I understand correctly, the most significant variable in this equation is if there has been recent travel to China, or contact with someone who has.
As a former resident of Tent City, Olympia, WA, I can affirm that there were no residents who had been to China nor were there residents who associated with someone who had made that trip.
If association or contact with some potential candidate, then the only possible carriers of this "plague" MIGHT come from all those pious church goers who come to the camp passing out cookies, blessings, and assorted goodies would be the carriers.
My advice to my fellow homeless is to shun all those middle class do-gooders who come to their camps.
>>Blogger mockturtle said...
OK, so medical personnel wear gowns and masks into an isolation patient's rooms because...?<<
Many isolation patients are not being isolated for respiratory/airborne infections. When they are, the med personnel use N-95s. Gowns are simply part of standard isolation protocol. Many infectious agents can be contacted on environmental surfaces and clothing.
Temujin: I still haven't seen any reaction to my honest question about this being a possibly overhyped event. Again- comparing actual deaths annually by influenza...
What isn't being overhyped is the economic effects caused by large parts of China being on lockdown.
Satellite images are showing significant drops in Chinese pollution from the drop in economic activity
The port of LA apparently has seen a 25% drop in business, mostly caused by a decrease in shipments coming from China. Oakland (CA) is also apparently seeing significant drops as well.
I hit Costco on Saturday and picked up a package of Kirkland toilet paper (they were out before I left the store) and paper towels (they were low). I know I'm going to use it eventually, we have the money so it's not a financial hit to buy it, and IIRC it comes from China, so at a minimum the price may be going up before the next time we'd actually need to buy.
Is that "panic buying"? Or is it rational reaction to the current situation?
We have the money, we have the space to store it, so we bought a bunch of things with long shelf lives that we know we're going to use anyway.
OTOH, "just in time" manufacturing and lean inventories means lots of people doing what we did leads to empty shelves.
Which, IMHO, leads to the argument the US accounting practices and tax code should be changed to encourage companies to keep more inventory. No?
It does seem to be hitting Iran hard though...
There are a lot of smokers in Iran. Not to mention, sanctions in a third world crap hole doesn't help.
OK, so medical personnel wear gowns and masks into an isolation patient's rooms because...?
I will answer my own sarcastic question as follows: They wear them to protect themselves [and their other patients] from airborne pathogens. It's really that simple. And if I find myself on public transportation in a high-risk area I shall be wearing a mask. YMMV.
Greg the CT: OTOH, "just in time" manufacturing and lean inventories means lots of people doing what we did leads to empty shelves.
Shelves being empty of one staple or another for no apparent reason has been a standard feature of my local Target and WalMart for several years now, so I didn't think anything of it when I needed more household bleach this week and found myself SOL at both stores.
“ There are a lot of smokers in Iran. Not to mention, sanctions in a third world crap hole doesn't help.”
Plus an adherence to 7th Century medicine, as explained in the Quran. One prominent cleric has apparently claimed that the proper way to address the COVID-19 epidemic in his country is by inserting essential oils in the anus. Or maybe just putting it around there with a cloth. No one should be surprised that this is hitting the top clerics running the country the worst - they tend to be older AND they believe in this stuff.
“Plus an adherence to 7th Century medicine, as explained in the Quran.”
This may be the thing that finally triggers the revolt that many of us have been expecting that brings the current Iranian regime down. The attendance at religious services in Iran has crashed over the last 40 years, as the bulk of the country has seemingly turned away from Islam, at least as is practiced there. Imagine being told that the country doesn’t need no stinking western medicine, but should rely on the ageless teachings of the Prophet. And then the ruling clergy start dying off as a result of this faith. Many may, ultimately see regime change as essential to personal survival. We shall see.
@angle-dyne
For Walmart shop on line and use free local store pick-up if you can wait a few days.
For orders over $40 you have free home delivery.
Walmart is coming out with walmart + which is similar to amazon prime.
>>mockturtle said...
OK, so medical personnel wear gowns and masks into an isolation patient's rooms because...?
I will answer my own sarcastic question as follows: They wear them to protect themselves [and their other patients] from airborne pathogens. It's really that simple.<<
No shit?! (Who could have known your question was going that basic.)
>>And if I find myself on public transportation in a high-risk area I shall be wearing a mask. YMMV.<<
Me too -- an N-95.
Because the ME is such a socially close culture, I would expect the virus to spread quickly there. While people in the US tend to keep others at arm's length when conversing, Middle Eastern people stand much closer and there is more kissing and other types of close contact than we see here. [Remember GW Bush holding hands with the Saudi Crown Prince?]
Speaking of which, why don't we put an end to handshakes? Let's just exchange polite bows like they do in Japan.
Thank you, the Centers for Disease Control. I say that sarcastically. I'm not an epidemiologist but it was obvious to me, and I assume any informed observer, let alone specialists in epidemics, that there was a strong potential for this to spread.
It is thanks to the CDC's refusal to test people for coronavirus other than those coming directly from the Hubei province of China that this disease has spread without challenge in the United States.
Thank you the CDC, you left-wing assholes, for being so outrageously incompetent. Except I doubt it was incompetence. It seems almost impossible to be that incompetent.
No, this act or this inaction was no doubt motivated by animus towards the people of the United States coming from the very top of the CDC. Likely they hope that the resulting disaster will be blamed on Trump which of course it will and that Trump will be defeated in this election.
I don't know why random pieces of text are just being dropped, but I will try that again:
Thank you, the Centers for Disease Control. I say that sarcastically. I'm not an epidemiologist but it was obvious to me, and I assume any informed observer, let alone specialists in epidemics, that there was a strong potential for this to spread.
It is thanks to the CDC's refusal to test people for coronavirus other than those coming directly from the Hubei province of China that this disease has spread without challenge in the United States.
Thank you the CDC, you left-wing assholes, for being so outrageously incompetent. Except I doubt it was incompetence. It seems almost impossible to be that incompetent.
No, this act or this inaction was no doubt motivated by animus towards the people of the United States coming from the very top of the CDC. Likely they hope that the resulting disaster will be blamed on Trump which of course it will and that Trump will be defeated in this election.
The local news coverage has been so over-the-top, it's impossible to take them seriously.
"No, this act or this inaction was no doubt motivated by animus towards the people of the United States coming from the very top of the CDC."
The head of the CDC is a presidential appointment, so a Trump lackey.
Or did Trump prove ineffective at both appointing people and draining the swamp? You'd think in 3 years he should have a handle on things.
What’s different this time?
You know exactly what's different. But it's not nice to point out the left is attempting to use this as another weapon against Trump. And it's even worse to suggest they want as many deaths and as much mayhem as possible ... because they think that gives them a better chance in November.
But those are the facts whether they like it being pointed out or not.
My wife advises to never touch your face during an outbreak like this.
Mark, most political appointees are not experts in what they are appointed to run. There are of course exceptions. But usually they rely upon the advice of civil servants and it's those same civil servants that really run the agency.
Your typical political appointee sets a direction or creates policy in a few areas without seriously changing how most things are run.
Of course there are always exceptions. But I doubt the current CDC is one of them.
And I doubt it was the political head of the CDC's idea to only test people who had come from Hubei province. Robert Redford, MD, should have known better, but I'll bet this was a committee decision. The excuse for not testing anyone else was no doubt the likelihood of false positives, which are more or less inevitable if you test a large number of people. Still to have done no surveillance, to have not looked for a problem, seems inexcusable.
What to do if you have CoVid-19. Pretty much what you should do if you have a bad case of the flu.
I think some charity should be extended to the health organizations. Why did China weld people in their apartments over the flu? Because they weren't sure yet what was going on with this virus. They noticed an increase in mortality in people with lower respiratory infections of an unknown cause. They were able to identify this - thanks to advances in technology- as a new variant of a coronavirus. Because it's new, no one knew how it would behave. How contagious is it? How fatal is it? How long has it been circulating? Some of this is still being worked out and is still unknown. Because there were more deaths and serious illness than usual, the public health response is to try to keep it from spreading. The fastest way to do that is through quarantine, especially in a totalitarian regime. Hand washing and hygiene is also important, but much harder to do perfectly and much harder to enforce.
I, too, find it reassuring that it has been circulating in the community. I suspect it is not just in Washington, but probably in every state. Think of how many people go to Disneyland, fly on planes, go on cruises. People were entering the country from other places long before this was identified as a problem. I suspect we will end up with a mortality rate similar to H1N1 once all is said and done.
As an M.D. friend pointed out to me, CDC fatality numbers for the flu, at this point in flu season approximately = 8,000. Where's the panic about common flu mortality. However, Orange Man Bad equivocates in media as the sky is falling. OBEY YOUR T.V. AT ALL COSTS!
Sydney, that's still a disaster. Think about what it means.
First, we go through a panic where as a sure side effect we have a mild recession, and probably much more serious.
Second, assume that the real mortality rate is considerably less than the 2 or 8 percent which are the current actual statistics from the various areas we are getting data from. Let's assume that once we take into account all the people who actually have the disease that we are currently aren't tracking that the real death rate is something comparable to the flu.
Well that's still an additional three-quarters of million deaths in the United States alone. That's not small potatoes, not really.
And then there is the risk that this will return year after year, just like the flu.
Third, actually we kind of know already that this is not the same as influenza. Here we get into something I'm less sure about and I could be quite wrong, but it's my understanding that a significant number of people that are getting this are left with permanent lung damage. It isn't just those who die but those who will need medical intervention for the rest of their lives.
Mandrewa, in addition to their refusal to test, the initial test they developed was flawed [wrong reagent] and had to be redeveloped. They've been behind the curve since the onset and are still--IMHO--offering misinformation about risk factors. How many people have already been exposed by a person who shows up in the ER with a cough and fever?
Ok. So the PANIC buying in King County continues (I just got back from my normal Monday shopping). I can sort of understand rice, flour and things in cans like beans and some veggies, soups, etc. But what in the Sam Hill are people buying up all of the cough medicine and nyquil for? They have no effect on the WhuFlu at all. But Bartells was bare shelf for these things and several other items that have no eefect whatsoever on a virus.
Sheese. I sincerely hope that folks tone it down some soon.
“No, this act or this inaction was no doubt motivated by animus towards the people of the United States coming from the very top of the CDC.”
Wow, talk bout overreaction and paranoia.
Igna said...
Wow, talk bout overreaction and paranoia.
Which is pretty impressive, coming from a lady that said (and i Quote):
"This covfefe-19 virus will KILL EVERY pregnant woman on Earth! and it's All Trump's fault!"
“Igna said...
Wow, talk bout overreaction and paranoia.
Which is pretty impressive, coming from a lady that said (and i Quote):
"This covfefe-19 virus will KILL EVERY pregnant woman on Earth! and it's All Trump's fault!"”
Except that not what I said, not even close. Keep digging dumbass, as I said earlier if you can’t keep up with the conversation, drop out. You’re making yourself look petty and desperate to save face from your earlier idiocies.
you DIDN'T say, that it was All Trump's Fault?
I'm sorry, i must have misheard
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