A friend thought I should post something my husband wrote in a message. Here 'tis.
"Today Italy had 4207 new cases and 475 new deaths in 24 hours (and they are even admitting they can't count all deaths now).
"They went into lockdown 9 days ago when they had 1797 new cases and 97 deaths in a day.
"Even my friends who have been following this asked if this means the lockdown is not working. No, it is working, but the lag time on this disease is long. It can be 14 day incubation and then is about 10 days after symptoms start before people typically take a turn for the worse if they are going to. Death typically in the third week after symptom start.
"So it can be 5 weeks or even more between the time someone is infected and when they die. Can be over 3 weeks between infection and when they have to go to the hospital.
"Numbers today represent reality as of 3 weeks ago.
"If you wait till it gets as bad as Italy to lockdown it is too late. Your health system is overwhelmed. Some hospitals in America are already getting that way now. One in New Jersey has already converted an entire floor to COVID. Multiple hospitals already running out of equipment. Many health workers starting to get sick.
"This is what is going on in some places in Amercia NOW, and will be everywhere soon unless we get very serious very quickly.
"Even if we lockdown now the disease will get about 8 times worse before it turns the corner after 3 weeks or so of quarantine. Every day we wait is a 40% increase in the eventual numbers."
१९ मार्च, २०२०
"Numbers today represent reality as of 3 weeks ago."
I'm passing along, with permission, something Freeman Hunt posted on Facebook.
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
पोस्ट्स
९४ टिप्पण्या:
ugh.
I'm no expert but it seems to me we need more infectious disease centers - separate from hospitals, at the ready, before this stuff starts.
"... (and, in fact, today, Italy had 3,405 deaths)....":
To clarify - the death toll from the outbreak of coronavirus in Italy rose in the last 24 hours by 427 to 3,405 (3405 cumulative up-to-now, not 3405 people dying today).
No editorial comment implied; it just tripped me up in reading it.
I am Laslo.
Here is a link to some other statistics about the Italy death toll 99% of Italy deaths suffered from other illnesses
"The research conducted by the National Institutes of Health evaluated 355 deaths and arrived at the conclusion that only three out of them had no prior health conditions. The rest suffered from either high blood pressure, diabetes or heart disease. According to the report, 75 percent of them had high blood pressure, 35 percent had diabetes, 24 percent had atrial fibrillation and 33 percent suffered from heart disease. The average age of those who died is 79.5 and the average of infected people is 63."
AND to show how triage works Even as older patients are more prone to the virus and are dying, the majority of the Italian hospitals are occupied by relatively young patients. An anesthetist at a hospital in Bergamo said that people above the age of 80 having respiratory diseases are likely to be not admitted.
An age-based statistic of the hospitals in Italy reveals that out of all the admitted patients, 12 percent are between the age of 19 and 50, 52 percent are between the age of 51 and 70 while the rest are above the age of 70.
Sick and old people are going to die. Wow!!!! Who knew???
The approval of new drug therapies today is going to rapidly flatten the curve in the US. Recovery times are much faster and case don’t get as severe. Today’s news is a huge and very hopeful development.
Italy. All eyes on Italy. Gotta keep this going. Italy Italy Italy.
The time for Italy to act was months ago. But the Chinese were still lying about it then. Hopefully Italy has some sunny warm and humid weather soon.
I predict Spain, France, Portugal, Germany other European countries are going to see a spike. It will move north for a few weeks in Europe.
What is the weather in New York/Northeast like this time of year?
Wisconsin seems kinda cold right now. But it will warm up soon. There is a period of time where bad things could happen there.
Seattle was in the target band the last few months. The last couple of days not.
It is interesting that people are looking at Italy and saying this will definitely happen here if we don't act now. But not why.
Why isn't this still exploding in China? Singapore? India? Brazil? Africa?
There are Chinese people back and forth to Africa all the time.
We would do a lot better at this if we actually took a minute to look at the numbers and the infection patterns.
Blanket panic is not the answer.
"Sick and old people are going to die. Wow!!!! Who knew???”
It’s called Logan’s Run Abortion.
High blood pressure is quite common.
Althouse, can I tell Dust Bunny Queen, who is mocking old people like my mother being left to die, or people like me with high blood pressure, to fuck off?
Here's what's really shocking: Althouse peruses the FB pages of her readers !!!
"It’s called Logan’s Run Abortion."
Except the upper limit isn't 30. It was 30, wasn't it? Been a looong time since I saw it.
Ken B Althouse, can I tell Dust Bunny Queen, who is mocking old people like my mother being left to die, or people like me with high blood pressure, to fuck off?
Go ahead. It won't work. Others have tried. :-D
Besides take that up with the National Institutes of Health. They are the ones who mentioned high BP. If I were you...I would keep that info on the down low.
OOOPS I meant low down. Erase that other phrase.
While Italy is clearly something odd a bellwether, I gave notice there is a large difference between their portion of the ill who are "seriously or critically" ill and in the US. FWIW, they also have had far more cases per million citizens than had the US since this started. Nevertheless, I remain concerned and think that the US response should be considered a success if the number is deaths are right around the number of deaths from influenza, which is still a terrible number.
"To clarify - the death toll from the outbreak of coronavirus in Italy rose in the last 24 hours by 427 to 3,405 (3405 cumulative up-to-now, not 3405 people dying today)"
Thanks for the correction. I'm glad to hear it!
I removed that sentence.
I'm not sure what "today" in the quote refers to.
'Every day we wait is a 40% increase in the eventual numbers." Exponential or linear?
In answer to the question asked, don't address other commenters to say something negative. Speak to the issues, not the person. Otherwise we tend to get unreadable clutter. That's always a problem around here, and you probably know some names that end up appearing and reappearing when threads get long. That's the back and forth that really does ruin the conversation. In this time of coronavirus, it's especially important to avoid ugliness and adding to the discomfort and fear and orneriness that people are experiencing. Don't make that any worse than it is. Just ask yourself before you publish a comment: Is this helping?
Ken B said...
High blood pressure is quite common.
Althouse, can I tell Dust Bunny Queen, who is mocking old people like my mother being left to die, or people like me with high blood pressure, to fuck off?
There are trade offs to every decision.
Blanket panic is causing real pain and will cause many deaths and hard decisions.
One thing I guarantee is boomers will not accept personally paying a price for this blanket panic that they are imposing.
For example payroll taxes are way down right now because people are demanding businesses close down.
I am guessing people would never support a moratorium on social security and government pension payments that are dependent on those payroll taxes.
I don't remember hearing about this elsewhere, so worth asking hereabouts: Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus? Iran, I kind of understand, but would think that Chinese impact would have hit west coast USA, and a lot of other places elsewhere. But they're putting Italy as having had to deal with the repercussions much earlier than others (and so put the US a couple weeks behind on trends). But if the virus hit the US at the same time as Italy it's not a helpful comparison.
Sacramento is now officially on "stay in your residence except for Essential Activities, by order of Law" My kids schools are shut down, and they are on an odd mix of online Zoom meetings and recommended (but not required) learning activities, and it's said they are going to transition to fully functioning remote education in April.
Otto said...
'Every day we wait is a 40% increase in the eventual numbers." Exponential or linear?
Depends on the weather.
It is sometimes logarithmic.
"Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus?"
Older population
High % Smoke
A lot of Chinese live there but went back for the New Year
Not the greatest health system
Yesterday I read an article that compared the countries with the WV to countries with a high susceptibility to malaria - it was like a mirror imagine. It also discussed the low level of passengers and crew of this first cruise ship we were aware of who tested positive for the WV - 83% did not get it - and around 50% of those who did were asymptomatic. One theory for both of these is the use of anti-malaria medications.
Paddy O said...
I don't remember hearing about this elsewhere, so worth asking hereabouts: Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus? Iran, I kind of understand, but would think that Chinese impact would have hit west coast USA, and a lot of other places elsewhere.
Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces
"Blogger Curious George said...
"Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus?"
Older population
High % Smoke
A lot of Chinese live there but went back for the New Year
Not the greatest health system"
Also, the highest rate of antibiotic resistance in Europe.
I copied it from a text message he sent to family, so it is unedited. He's feeling optimistic today with the treatments coming online. We are both guessing that we'll see a total lockdown for several weeks (government enforced eventually because too many people aren't doing it voluntarily), then aggressive testing, contact tracing, and isolating like South Korea--back to relatively normal. That is a possible future. We'll see!
I believe that if King and Snohomish Counties in WA had locked down [people confined within the counties--still able to shop, work [perhaps] and visit within the county borders, it might not be spreading all over the state. But Inslee is a 4+ doofus. Also, a University of WA epidemiologist has found that the nursing home residents who were infected were all infected by staff who worked while sick and some working at more than one facility. Also, as of a week ago, NONE of the staff had been tested. Seattle Times.
The best way to tell if things are getting worse,the same,or better is to plot the daily change from the day before for deaths and cases. If the slope is positive , things are getting worse, if the slope is zero, things are the same, and if the slope is negative things are getting better. Simple calculus 101. Easy to do in Excel.
This way you shut out all the white noise like that from the likes of Freeman Hunt.
Italy also joined China's Belt and Road program - after being warned not to by the EU and others. This brought in approximately 300k national Chinese as workers on joint infrastructure projects. As posted above many of them went home for new year celebrations. There were also daily flights from northern Italy to Wuhan, China.
Dance with the devil...
We are both guessing that we'll see a total lockdown for several weeks (government enforced eventually because too many people aren't doing it voluntarily)
Not arguing with you, but how would this work, exactly? How would it be enforced? Are they going to shoot people who leave their homes? Arrest them? In my county they're releasing prisoners from the jail because they can't provide them with 'social distancing.' How are they going to arrest more people? Who's going to do this? My city has 15 police officers per 10,000 residents. How many National Guardsmen do they actually have?
Mr. Pants agrees that a total lockdown is coming, but I just can't see that becoming possible. There's already a huge off the books, gray market economy here. I can't see how such people can be controlled.
Freeman, does your husband have some kind of job-related expertise?
Nope. Only an intense interest in this for the last two months. Just like another blogger gathering information, but one who does not blog.
And the State Dept. has advised against all international travel. I would also advise people to stay away from the hot spot states. Cuomo did the right thing to close off the cluster county. Westchester County, as of this morning, has 798 confirmed cases. And they are all [or at least almost all] associated with one man and his social activities over a few days. This is not a usual kind of contagion, folks.
And by gray-market economy I mean, if the economically depressed people of my area have a long custom of meeting in parking lots to sell tires and unlocked iPhones and formula they got from WIC, you think they're going to stop doing that now? When they're running out of baby wipes and fideo and you have to line up at 5 am to get into the local H-E-B? Not a chance. So are we going to arrest or shoot those people? It's preposterous.
Westchester County, as of this morning, has 798 confirmed cases. And they are all [or at least almost all] associated with one man and his social activities over a few days. This is not a usual kind of contagion, folks.
How many 'confirmed cases' require hospitalization? Isn't that the relevant piece of information?
Paddy O said...
I don't remember hearing about this elsewhere, so worth asking hereabouts: Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus? Iran, I kind of understand, but would think that Chinese impact would have hit west coast USA, and a lot of other places elsewhere.
There are over 320,000 Chinese citizens in Italy, not counting illegals. The largest Chinese population is in Milan. Apparently they are more likely to travel to and from China than Chinese in the US, though that's just a guess. On top of that, the usual factors - aged population, smoking, close families, lots of interpersonal contact, problems with the medical system.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
How many National Guardsmen do they actually have?
How many national guardsmen do they have who will obey an order to shoot their family and friends if they don't comply?
These people are lunatics.
This panic is stupid and destructive. You only get to cry wolf once.
Otto, take a look at these slopes: Global Cases, WorldOMeter
Lurker21 said...
There are over 320,000 Chinese citizens in Italy, not counting illegals. The largest Chinese population is in Milan. Apparently they are more likely to travel to and from China than Chinese in the US, though that's just a guess. On top of that, the usual factors - aged population, smoking, close families, lots of interpersonal contact, problems with the medical system.
Exactly.
People who cite Italy to cause panic are doing a disservice.
Italy seems to fair poorly with the flu every year on a percapita basis in general too.
Physicians are starting to refuse to see patients: if you have an appointment it will get cancelled unless it is an emergency.
On the other hand, if you do have symptoms of the coronavirus they don't want to see you either. At least not in person. From Aurora Health's own website: "If you think you’ve been exposed to COVID-19 or are experiencing symptoms, sign in to see a provider 24/7 with a video visit."
"Charlie Currie said...
Also, the highest rate of antibiotic resistance in Europe."
That's no issue with the virus, although it could lead to more deaths due to not being able to treat the secondary pneumonia.
I got two surgical infections during my last hip replacement three years ago. I've been on antibiotics ever since, just taking one now. I'm waiting to see from my ID Doc if Keflex is effective against pneumonia in case I do get this crud.
mockturtle said...
Otto, take a look at these slopes: Global Cases, WorldOMeter
Do you know what those slopes look like if you plot them on the same graph with the seasonal flu?
You should try it.
Physicians are starting to refuse to see patients: if you have an appointment it will get cancelled unless it is an emergency.
I had a mammogram last night. The radiology place was still open, and they were sanitizing and stuff but the tech was definitely not maintaining 6 feet of distance from me. I was thinking to myself that I was a little surprised they were open, but wondering who would be responsible if they had cancelled my appointment and I later was found to have a tumor which they would have caught if they hadn't cancelled me. Just my waiting room musings.
"Caligula said...
Physicians are starting to refuse to see patients: if you have an appointment it will get cancelled unless it is an emergency."
I had an appointment next Wednesday with my Infectious Disease doc for surgical infections from hip replacement. They called today and we changed it to a phone call. SHe said insurances will cover this now.
I'm not hearing that "total lockdown" is the obvious solution. If you mean to say that we have to put an end to the really idiotic violations, I'm with you. But logically speaking, if people self-quarantine to the point where they are in contact with very few people, it should have a big impact on the spread of the illness. I'm very suspicious of anyone who denies that, since it seems very obvious.
Otto @ 4:19: That is what I've been doing for the last six days. I still read local news, but don't watch it. In Oregon we've had 3 deaths. I've not heard of any exceptional demand on our health system yet- although there is much preparation being made. The numbers are certainly increasing which is why I'm still maintaining appropriate precautions.
To her credit, the governor has held off the "shelter in place" order. If it comes down, I will probably ignore it to the extent that I will drive places to hike or just walk.
I'm not hearing that "total lockdown" is the obvious solution. If you mean to say that we have to put an end to the really idiotic violations, I'm with you. But logically speaking, if people self-quarantine to the point where they are in contact with very few people, it should have a big impact on the spread of the illness. I'm very suspicious of anyone who denies that, since it seems very obvious.
I'm curious as to what part of this posting people believe is incorrect. It appears to be based on verifiable numbers from worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
The rest is extrapolation. Might not be completely accurate, but few predictions are. It is certainly plausible. I would say it is likely the US is in better shape due to the much lower percentage of serious cases. We can hope.
Italy is mystifying. I havent seen a reasonable explanation as to why their numbers are so much worse than other countries - even China. Is it their older population? Statisticians are good at correcting for things like that. More smokers? Same thing. Generally sicker population? Heck, everybody has high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease these days.
I've read some reports that doctors are making decisions as to who to treat and who to let die. Are people being left to die that are being treated in other countries?
Makes you wonder.
If we learn anything at all from this pandemic it will be the importance of borders. International borders, state/provincial borders, county lines, etc. God save borders!
Well, and the other thing we have learned is not to outsource critical products like medications and medical equipment!
Achilles, you know what you can do with your 'seasonal flu'. And tell me of an instance where one person infected 798 people with seasonal flu in a few days?
"mockturtle said...
If we learn anything at all from this pandemic it will be the importance of borders. International borders, state/provincial borders, county lines, etc. God save borders!
"Well, and the other thing we have learned is not to outsource critical products like medications and medical equipment!"
And that we need to do a better job teaching exponential and logarithmic functions.
Don't worry, be happy. Angst is poison that will lower your immunity.
Thanks all. The worker program issue really makes sense. We have a large Chinese immigrant or visa population here (not counting 2nd-3rd-8th generations), but not one that does a lot of constant back and forth, and not nearly as concentrated. I knew about Italy's aged population, but if that were the only factor the US should be positioned at the same starting point but with better results. Sounds like Italy had a much larger initial influx of infected population and much lower resistance/capability.
I can't help wondering how many other diseases or social disasters (ie drunk-driving deaths) all this caution might prevent
mockturtle said...
Achilles, you know what you can do with your 'seasonal flu'. And tell me of an instance where one person infected 798 people with seasonal flu in a few days?
This hysteria is not productive.
Go look at infection patterns for the virus.
You are listening to the media.
There is no group of people on this planet who are less informed about this than the media. They know less about math, virology, incubation periods, infectious surfaces, and temperature/humidity patterns than any of us.
Millions of people in the US were infected with the flu this year. Millions. Hundreds of millions of people get the flu every year around the world.
It is a mathematical certainty at least 1 of those people infected 798 other people somewhere in the world this year.
Ms Pants said...
we'll see a total lockdown for several weeks (government enforced eventually because too many people aren't doing it voluntarily)
There's already a huge off the books, gray market economy here. I can't see how such people can be controlled.
Even without the lockdown; HOW LONG do you Boomers think 20 somethings are going to continue to NOT go to bars, just because the legal ones are closed? One Month? Two?
I wonder If our government had ever tried shutting done ALL the bars in a state before?
I'm SURE that IF this had been tried before; it must have worked Completely Successfully?
I mean, if the government tells you you can't go to bars; you have no alternative, do you?
I just wish History could give us some insight on this
has wisconsin closed its bars and restaurants, like iowa has?
And tell me of an instance where one person infected 798 people with seasonal flu in a few days?
How would you know if someone had if no one was tested, had serious symptoms or sought care? I’m 40 years old and have never once sought care for anything that didn’t involve reproduction. I’ve had the flu before and I stayed home and no one but me and my family knew I’d had it.
You are listening to the media.
No, I'm not. I do read about a dozen international news sources on a daily basis as well as reputable data sources. YMMV.
South Korea is now undergoing another spike in cases due to new clusters. Korea Times
@mockturttle Worldometers.info just plots the daily number of deaths and cases. What you have to do in excel is make a plot of the CHANGES in those numbers . To do that make a tabular list of the daily numbers from worldometer . Then make a list of points using this formula
Daily Change = cases or deaths today - cases or deaths yesterday. Plot that data and see if the slope is positive, zero or negative.
To do it for the USA double click USA in country listings to get daily rates.
Why is it so bad in Italy?
February 2nd 2020:
"Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus. Meanwhile, a member of Associazione Unione Giovani Italo Cinesi, a Chinese society in Italy aimed at promoting friendship between people in the two countries, called for respect for novel coronavirus patients during a street demonstration. "I'm not a virus. I'm a human. Eradicate the prejudice.""
video
Median time to presentation of symptoms is 5 days. Less than 1% take over 12 days.
I don't know what the numbers are on "symptoms start" to "symptoms peak in worst cases".
But the abuse of "can take" makes me doubt the rest
Otto: "The best way to tell if things are getting worse,the same,or better is to plot the daily change from the day before for deaths and cases."
Ceteris paribus. But all things are certainly NOT equal. Current results are being skewed by the rapid increase in TESTING. No surprise--you test more people (dead or alive) in a self-selecting group with symptoms, you find more people with the virus. The other part of this that will slant reporting in coming weeks is that even though some 24%-99% (99% in Italy -- can that be right?) of fatalities where the virus is found have co-morbidity factors, ALL of those deaths will now be included with COVID-19 statistics, rather than the pneumonia, heart disease, cancer, or whatever else may have been present.
Dbp & 5:15 But Florence has not been an area of rampant infection.
At least not yet.
We would do a lot better at this if we actually took a minute to look at the numbers and the infection patterns.
Seriously? Fauci is a world class epidemiologist, you think he is not aware of this stuff?
Here’s an estimate of just how overwhelmed your local hospital is likely to get:
https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals
mockturtle at 4:18
I believe that if King and Snohomish Counties in WA had locked down [people confined within the counties--still able to shop, work [perhaps] and visit within the county borders, it might not be spreading all over the state. But Inslee is a 4+ doofus.
I actually think that Washington (esp. King and Snohomish County) residents were - on their own - farther ahead on this than the rest of the country because the local nursing home situation was a major punch to the gut - large numbers of deaths in a matter of days. Many of us began to stock up right away and therefor heavy shopping at Costco was spread out over a couple of weeks - before the rest of the country figured it out.
#ShutitdownJay was at the top of my "local" Twitter feed last night. All of the usual suspects are upset that they still have to work at the grocery stores, fast food venues, etc. to provide critical goods to the population. Based on the tweets, I think what they really want is immediate access to unemployment comp.
Mockturtle:
It is not a matter of location. Do you think the cosmopolitan "woke" attitude of Milan is very different from that of Florence?
"Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus?"
Because Italy (mostly Northern - Industrial Part) has a greater percentage of Chinese people per population then any other European country. Remember the Chinese are big on history in their culture - i.e. Marco Polo and trade. They were late in reacting to the Chinese threat - maybe they bought of on the Chinese Virus as propoganda and are now paying the price. But I saw the numbers and all, except for a single digit number, are dying because of age and preconditions. BTW, the seasonal flu also has a similar impact on older people with preconditions. Year to date, Seasonal Flu deaths still outnumber Covit - 19 deaths. I don't have any facts, but suspect that once the Flu season runs its course - seasonal flu will still be the front-runner on deaths. We haven't seen the MSM hype seasonal flu like this Covit - 19 flu so no resources to be addressed for the seasonal flu.
Maybe a coincidence, but a large Italian American family in NJ has been hit had (mom and 3 adult kids dead, most of her other 9 kids also seriously ill.)
Wondering if there’s a genetic factor.
Kathryn, if you read the excerpt from my post that you quoted you will see that I was referring to keeping inter-county travel to a minimum. I specifically said people could work, etc. but to be confined within their own counties for the duration. Is there anything lacking in your county that would necessitate your traveling to, say, Pierce County?
gilbar said...
I wonder If our government had ever tried shutting done ALL the bars in a state before? I'm SURE that IF this had been tried before; it must have worked Completely Successfully?
I mean, if the government tells you you can't go to bars; you have no alternative, do you? I just wish History could give us some insight on this
I know you are trying to be subtle. Even telling them to go look up the 18th amendment is probably too taxing for people now.
I prefer to just tell people the word.
Prohibition.
I think it is also time to tell people that they need to start learning how to farm and raise cattle. Even you rich retired people.
The restaurants and super markets and truck drivers and farmers are all a part of that supply chain that puts food on the shelves and you all are giving it a giant kick in the balls.
But it only really hurts those at the margins. For a while.
This will not end well.
Kathryn51 said...
#ShutitdownJay was at the top of my "local" Twitter feed last night. All of the usual suspects are upset that they still have to work at the grocery stores, fast food venues, etc. to provide critical goods to the population. Based on the tweets, I think what they really want is immediate access to unemployment comp.
All those people want a paid vacation too.
You all better learn to farm.
Shit doesn't show up on shelves by magic.
"Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus?"
Because of Italians flicking a thumbnail off a tooth at anyone who tells them to wash their hands.
we don't abide by just the thin minitrue gruel, that's offered by the state run media, and certain never trumper bought and paid for Chinese minions, Robert zoellick, fmr fannie mae lobbyist is one of those, arguing for the suspension of Chinese tariffs, across the pond, the hannigan chap fmrly from ghcq is another,
Wondering if there’s a genetic factor.
There always is, it's just a matter of degree. And it could be individual, like people with "type A" blood are more susceptible (news conjecture), or racial, as in Africans' resistance to malaria.
The previous SARS affected indigenous Taiwanese far less than it did the invaders from the mainland.
What's the news from sub-Saharan Africa and India? Not much going on there, for some mysterious reason...
A hospital administrator I know says an entire floor is dedicated to China virus patients. So far they have had one. That one got better and was released. The floor sits empty.
Panic is a bad look.
Don't tell Seattle, Birkel. They'll send you a bunch of their cases.
I mentioned the other day that the D.C. area has at least three entire hospital buildings lying empty because they have closed in recent months/years. Some of them have explored being ready to re-open for affected patients.
Maryland's governor has also issued orders for closed hospitals to increase beds by 6000.
And all these people complaining of a lack of testing kits, as if we should have known what to test for before the outbreak and should have had tens of millions of kits just lying around getting stale. Same with ventilators.
One concern is that New York protocol calls for a reassessment of respirator/ventilator, etc. usage. The short of it is that disabled people who are current users are now at risk of having their devices taken away from them in order to give them to others as part of the triage/rationing process.
According to New York State Department of Health “Ventilator Allocation Guidelines”:
With their arrival at the hospital, [chronic care patients] are treated like any other patient who requires a ventilator and need to meet certain criteria to be eligible for ventilator therapy. While a policy to triage upon arrival may deter chronic care patients from going to an acute care facility for fear of losing access to their ventilator, it is unfair and in violation of the principles upon which this allocation scheme is based to allow them to remain on a ventilator without assessing their eligibility.
Distributive justice requires that all patients in need of a certain resource be treated equally; if chronic care patients were permitted to keep their ventilators rather than be triaged, the policy could be viewed as favoring this group over the general public.
mockturtle said...
Kathryn, if you read the excerpt from my post that you quoted you will see that I was referring to keeping inter-county travel to a minimum. I specifically said people could work, etc. but to be confined within their own counties for the duration. Is there anything lacking in your county that would necessitate your traveling to, say, Pierce County?
I'm not sure how you would minimize inter-county travel. The virus spread fairly quickly throughout the state (many counties affected w/in 10 days of initial outbreak), so a lock-down of two counties would have been required almost immediately.
I think it's crazy that the rural counties (that have zero or perhaps 1-2 cases) are shut down just as hard King/Snohomish/Pierce.
Inslee is walking a tightrope. If there are too many deaths/serious illnesses - he will get blamed. If too many businesses close permanently - he will be blamed. This is election year for him - but I would never wish for this virus simply to get rid of him (unlike folks who are eager to use it to stop Trump).
"Paddy O said...
I don't remember hearing about this elsewhere, so worth asking hereabouts: Why is Italy in particular a leading edge of the virus?"
1) Italy has lots of contact with China (so high exposure/morbidity)
2) Italy has the oldest population of Europe (so high mortality)
) Italy has lots of contact with China (so high exposure/morbidity)
2) Italy has the oldest population of Europe (so high mortality)
Also they had a big "fashion week" in Milan that probably contributed. International airports are a factor. The disease in in northern Italy predominantly. The south is poorer but not as badly affected.
I think it's crazy that the rural counties (that have zero or perhaps 1-2 cases) are shut down just as hard King/Snohomish/Pierce.
Yes, it is. Statewide shutdowns don't make any sense at all unless the whole state is infected.
The New Orleans Saints head coach has tested positive. Apparently he had neither a cough nor a fever, just fatigue. So why is no one tested here in this state unless they have both a cough AND fever. I guess celebrities and NFL coaches rate a little higher on the importance scale.
There are plenty of single use test kits out there, you just need to wait until they start coughing.
ISTR reading that the military has a large number of ventilators and that it is possible to use a machine for more than one patient after a bit of hardware ingenuity.
I tell you what, I'm going to say fuck off right now.
I will not put up with another week of quarantine/lock down/shelter in place/bullshit.
we are committing economic suicide to feel good about keeping the virus away from a few 80+ year olds who already have underlying health conditions, and even under "healthy" conditions have an approximate 10-11% chance of dying in the next year.
The same people tell me I need to reduce "unnecessary" health care spending in the USA, but they're willing to torch TRILLIONS in the next few months on a few unhealthy elderly.
FCUK them. When all is said and done, this won't come close to the Spanish flu.
Period.
This is utter bullshit panic mongering. Italy was exposed at the same time we were. We are not Italy. We shut the border, they didn't.
Quit spreading panic Althouse. I'm going about my life, except the fucking government here in AZ says I can't go to restaurants and bars. Totally fucks the workers in those businesses cause the pols want to cover their asses.
Until more testing is done, none of these assholes know how many cases have actually happened, so their fatality ratios are wild guesses. We'll see a spike in cases as the volume of testing goes up, and the media and attention hungry medicos (not all medicos, just the publicity hounds) will tell us we're all going to die, but in reality we've captured all the deaths, and a fraction of the actual cases due to asymptotic infectees and mild cases that self treated thinking they had common colds or flu. The denominator is going to change fatality rates significantly when test results are in, and still be understated for the same reasons.
This is wildly overblown and killing millions of low risk people's livelihoods.
Avoid the media--they want this to be a never ending disaster.
I'm 76 next month. Fuck all these people hoarding TP and water and anything else they can get their hands on. I'm ashamed of these locusts. We'd lose WW II if we had to fight it now.
Flu will kill 150-300 people TODAY.
One of the two deaths in Wisconsin was a 50 year old man who worked with my family friend in Fon du Lac. My family friend told me he had no known comorbidities, was in good health before he got Covid.
“Maybe a coincidence, but a large Italian American family in NJ has been hit had (mom and 3 adult kids dead, most of her other 9 kids also seriously ill.)
Wondering if there’s a genetic factor.”
I wonder too.
The article I linked to on the other thread spoke of studies showing people with Type A blood were more susceptible to catching it.
What is the weather in New York/Northeast like this time of year?
High of 75° today, clouds and showers.
And tell me of an instance where one person infected 798 people with seasonal flu in a few days?
The concept of super spreaders is well established. Dr, Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Health Safety Center states that 20% of those infected generally spread the disease to the other 80%. 40,000,000 Americans get the flu every year in spite of the availability of vaccines. 800,000 were hospitalized and 63,000 died in the 2017-2018 season which peaked in March.
40,000,000!!
We are committing economic suicide. We will very soon have a 40% unemployment rate. By comparison, the unemployment rate during the depression of 1929 reached a peak of 25%
I can’t make this cost/benefit balance.
- Krumhorn
Not arguing with you, but how would this work, exactly? How would it be enforced? Are they going to shoot people who leave their homes? Arrest them? In my county they're releasing prisoners from the jail because they can't provide them with 'social distancing.' How are they going to arrest more people? Who's going to do this? My city has 15 police officers per 10,000 residents. How many National Guardsmen do they actually have?
Pants-
Those are my questions and thoughts, too.
And for people answering about why Italy is being so hard hit-- I believe the question really is, why is there some idea that *we* are going to track(or are tracking) Italy in any way?
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