... things are a little gray.
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१४३ टिप्पण्या:
Yet if we remembered even just a few details of the sunrises of every day we were happy, we would all be great artists
OK, OK, OK
Only because of popular demand:
Infectious disease breaks out among the command officers.
And then Kirk does his best Joe Biden impression.
I was gonna comment, but I think I'll wait for a lull.
The governor has banned the use of hydroxychloroquine in the State of Nevada.
Might be worth discussing tomorrow.
Yet if we remembered even just a few details of the sunrises of every day we were happy we would all be great artists ....
I have had more friends than I can remember, God bless their hearts, sometimes I have been in arguments I deserved to win and sometimes I have been in arguments which I did not deserve to win, and I know this
I have rarely met someone who has not had many happy days in this world
God loves you my friends
and if you are one of the people I met who had little happiness in this world
God loves you more for that
what more can i say
Good God, did someone suggest Althouse read Watership Down? Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Yet if we remembered even just a few details of the sunrises of every day we were happy we would all be great artists ....
I have had more friends than I can remember, God bless their hearts, sometimes I have been in arguments I deserved to win and sometimes I have been in arguments which I did not deserve to win, and I know this
I have rarely met someone who has not had many happy days in this world
God loves you my friends
and if you are one of the people I met who had little happiness in this world
God loves you more for that
what more can i say
God needs friends too and how in the world can you learn to be a friend to Someone like that if you need to rank high
here in hawaii, things are shut down. No tourists to speak of, those that do come are locked down for 14 days.. all shops, restaurants closed. tough on people, many people worked two jobs just to make the high rent/morgage food bills. closed the county parks, which sucks, but still surfers going out, no matter what is open or not. Less panic buying at the town markets, but still hard to get TP etc. haven't even tried costco, assume it is total insanity. I shop at a small market in Haiku, seems to have most things I need. at 70, with damaged lungs, and recently out of hospital with pneumonia, I'm at high risk, so I pretty much stick to myself. My work continues, at least for now, so thats good. the owner is understanding of days when i decide to stay in and not go anywhere.
things are locked up until apr. 30. I don't agree with it, but the powers that be decided to deal with things this way. Big mistake,in my opinion. Just have to make the best of things, and count on things coming around once the panic has passed.
Keep trying but I am not going with bleak today. There is hope. I hear it in many places, well, actually on many calls cuz I'm not going places. People are breaking through, adjusting to the new normal, even my NYC colleagues and friends. If I were a Marine this would be a good time to say, Semper Fi.
She is doing her best impression of a New Yorker doing her best to infect the rest of the country.
Sisolak,
Dem, export from Wauwatosa.
Frankly, I'm annoyed that I keep getting these promotion e-mails from Hawaiian Airlines.
The whole state -- and inter-island transport -- ought to be shut off from the rest of the world.
Grateful Dead - Touch Of Grey
These are the kind of people I see playing Ultimate Frisbee!
Jim --
Do they have someone infected on every island? Or just some?
According to Cuomo 12 percent of NYC residents who have tested positive have entered the hospital. That is one in eight. http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals/index.html
Yeah, things are tough in Hawaii but they have only a certain number of ICU's and they can't afford to be overloaded. I pity the poor tourists who booked a Hawaiian vacation and ended up in a 14 day quarantine. And at least you have the sunshine. Imagine being isolated on the Olympic Peninsula and facing clouds/rain every day.
I am curious how throwing the greatest generation under the corona bus is going to work in practice. The party of life takes a detour to the dark side.
I hope Hawaiian airlines can makes it through. Plus everyone on my favorite island, Kauai
It's interesting when you see old TV shows where they put some old-age makeup on the cast and you compare them to how they look today, when they actually are old.
None of the Star Trek make-up jobs came anywhere close to what Shatner, Nimoy, et al. look(ed) like in their older years. But then again, even when I first saw this episode I thought it was a bad make-up job.
So of the clearly significantly sick (criteria for test), 88% don't need hospitalization?
A message from China.
New message from: horizon_electronic Top Rated Seller(58,490PurpleShooting Star)
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And hope the virus will disappear soon .
Thanks for your order in our store , and we will sterilize and pack it well.
Due to severe outbreaks in various countries, flights are very tight now ,
and the manpower distribution in destination countries is also limited, so delivery speed may be a little slower than usual .
hope you can understand and wait for it patiently .
We will try our best to make it fast , please contact us without hesitate !
Regards,
Yes Walter, that's also my takeaway: the scariest models have 15% severe cases, so this would seem to be encouraging since we're still mostly testing people ill enough to get a test, since it's mostly (in NYC) hospital or doctor office testing.
We've had a BOOMING economy these last few years. Yet now all these companies are acting as if they were barely hanging on and getting by only paycheck-to-paycheck.
Responsible people saved up. Responsible companies did the same.
What was the lesson learned from 2008?
Too many companies took the lesson to be -- hey, we are "too big to fail," we can be reckless and poor stewards of our assets and if things get tough, the government will come in and give us a bunch of cash. And while our employees may get hurt, screw them because we executives will keep living well -- all thanks to the American taxpayer.
ARM, most of the Greatest Generation is dead. The Silent Generation (the one between the Greatest and the Boomers) is the group at greatest risk these days, although leading-edge Boomers also may fall in that category. I'm a late-Boomer at 59, about to age into the risky category soon.
Given my age, I should prefer Start TNG to the The original series, but its the exact opposite. I like Patrick Stewart and Data but there's no chemistry with that cast. By contrast TOS had characters that were all friends with each other and worked together like a well-fitted glove. McCoy-Kirk-Spock: the 3 Amigos plus Scott, uhura, checkov, and Sulu.
And I never could get used to the Klingons being on our side.
Only some of the Klingons were good.
The older generation should be self isolating with our supply of hydroxychloroquine handy and let the rest of you go back to work.
Here's Governor Cuomo announcing a a Record-Breaking Total Number of Flu Cases in New York Even as Number of Flu Cases Decline for Second Week.
131,000 flu cases in NY!
Notice the date - Feb 27, 2020 -2 weeks before the Covid pandemic.
Just like in Italy, they are superimposing a scary new "viral" epidemic upon an existing flu "non-epidemic".
That's called Old wine in a New Bottle.
The flu is not a joke, but we absorb the health risks each winter, without shutting down $20 Trillion Dollar GDP.
Ciao, Bella!
As of today, I think totals are as follows: 90(21 new)
Oahu: 53
Maui: 9
Kauai: 1(0 new)
Big Island: 2
break down of cases includes many that are of tourists, and international cases. Hard to find data on those. All islands have cases, the most are on Oahu. One of the confirmed cases is someone who worked at the hospital on Maui.
Limited number of beds, and ICU beds. Best options are on Oahu, where the military has a number of hospitals, and access to supplies etc.
People are in good spirits, they understand why this is needed. once the immediate hospitals are full , its almost 3000 miles to the next one.
Indeed kahless was a villain in tos, a noble warrior in tng.
"The older generation should be self isolating"
OK, but not just self-isolating: in rigorously enforced quarantine.
Target the risk groups, and that includes people with respiratory problems -- Wuhan is a form of SARS, duh.
Maybe too late in New York.
In order to help our local economy, I bought a Toyota 4Runner today.
They gave me a good deal, but I didn't have the heart to press for as much as I could. Those guys have families to support.
Well well well.
It appears there has been a Great Awakening in the nation regarding Trumps performance in office, particularly amongst independents. The Harris poll shows a 60% approval by independents of Trump during this crisis.
So naturally, you know what the democrat partisan networks (CNN/MSNBC/NBC/ABC/CBS) did in reaction to that: started cutting away from the press conferences.
Do you want to know the best part?
Ratings at CNN and MSNBC were far higher for these press conferences than programming a year ago at this same time as well as for programming now at other parts of the day.
In summary: viewers were tuning in in large numbers and getting info necessary to understand what is happening during a national emergency and the lefty/LLR-lefty media ran away because people are responding very positively to the President.
In particular, the older demographics.
The lefty/LLR-lefty media hope to create a Great A-Sleepening to avoid the obvious.
That's interesting stuff BAG. I wonder how many people with flu-like symptoms but no positive flu test--btw, this was how we were mostly estimating COVID-19 cases for the first couple of weeks--were being sent home with bronchitis or other diagnoses.
I checked out US cities' population density and guess what I found.
The vast majority of high density cities (10-28K per square mile) are in New York, New Jersey and California.
Now guess which states have the most COVID-19 cases.
D.C. is reporting nearly 50 new cases -- all but a handful under 60 years old, the vast majority being in their 20s and 30s.
Hope spring break and the cherry blossoms were worth it.
Your community can't get it unless someone brings it in.
At least Molokai is safe. Ironic.
“I am curious how throwing the greatest generation under the corona bus is going to work in practice. The party of life takes a detour to the dark side.”
Their argument about the sanctity of life sort of falls flat after all the talk of sacrificing grandma and grandpa. The Pro Life argument has been weakened. I wonder if the Lt.Governor of Texas give that any thought before he spouted off.
NY looks like it is going to get hammered. Over 100 deaths on the 24th. I have to hope every critical case can get the Hydroxychloroquine Z Pak combo. Video shows jammed subway car early this AM.
Browndog said...
The governor has banned the use of hydroxychloroquine in the State of Nevada.
And I thought Democrats were against coming between a Doctor and patient?
When I'm in rush hour traffic, it only takes one or two cars in a hundred to turn everything into a complete CF.
Live TV -- Biden coughs into his fist, after grabbing his nose and mouth during his livestream yesterday.
<a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/roket_gal/status/1242631516624228355?s=21> oh really </a>
Some BAD lighting on Shannon.
Then again, even the "good" lighting on Fox is bad in a different way and too harsh.
Thanks Jim for the report from Hawaii.
A month ago, the Althouse comments would be chock full of comment/argument about the denouement of the Mueller Russia collusion investigation. (Charges dropped while we were distracted.) This still is big story with big lessons in the long arc of history.
One reason I have little respect for the professional pundit class: every article/opinionpiece says, "This coronavirus experience just reinforces what I already thought and proves what a genius I am." Can anyone refer me to an article that says something like, "Before the virus scare I thought X, but now I am inclined to believe not-X"?
Some good news
Ford joins GE, 3M in speeding up ventilator, respirator production
Nevadas chief medical officer, isnt licebsed in that state.
@Bay Area Guy
Just like in Italy, they are superimposing a scary new "viral" epidemic upon an existing flu "non-epidemic".
As Regard professor Ricciardi’s interview, I have to say that it’s being misunderstood in America.
He’s not saying that, after all, Covid19 is not serious and people is dying for other causes. He’s part of the government staff, and one of the people who decided for the total shut down in Italy, in the first place.
He’s saying that people who die overwhelmingly have pre-existing conditions; but here, and in previous interviews, he was pretty clear that those people would not have died without Covid19.
What he’s saying is that Italy is more “honest” than other countries which ascribe deaths to the pre-existing conditions, hiding in this way the real situation. Strangely, he’s being interpreted the other way around.
How many of the infected that are naysayers and anti-Trumpers are going to be saying, "Hell yes give me the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Give it to me NOW!"?
And how many are going to say, "I'm not taking my medical advice from Trump. I'm good without it."?
As Regard professor Ricciardi’s interview, I have to say that it’s being misunderstood in America.
He’s not saying that, after all, Covid19 is not serious and people is dying for other causes. He’s part of the government staff, and one of the people who decided for the total shut down in Italy, in the first place.
He’s saying that people who die overwhelmingly have pre-existing conditions; but here, and in previous interviews, he was pretty clear that those people would not have died without Covid19.
What he’s saying is that Italy is more “honest” than other countries which ascribe deaths to the pre-existing conditions, hiding in this way the real situation. Strangely, he’s being interpreted the other way around.
Inga said...
Their argument about the sanctity of life sort of falls flat after all the talk of sacrificing grandma and grandpa. The Pro Life argument has been weakened. I wonder if the Lt.Governor of Texas give that any thought before he spouted off.
Gimme a fucking break. Who are the Moloch-worshippers to be talking about anyone else's pro-life bona fides? Hypocritical concern trolls.
h,
covid 19 is the best thing that could happen to all the players in that sham.
And Hunter has sunny, happy painting he'd like to sell us.
Inga said...
“I am curious how throwing the greatest generation under the corona bus is going to work in practice. The party of life takes a detour to the dark side.”
Their argument about the sanctity of life sort of falls flat after all the talk of sacrificing grandma and grandpa. The Pro Life argument has been weakened. I wonder if the Lt.Governor of Texas give that any thought before he spouted off.
3/24/20, 9:54 PM
No tourists to speak of, those that do come are locked down for 14 days.
I asked my travel agent whether wife and I could go to Hawaii and just quarantine ourselves for two weeks in a resort hotel, but she said the resorts are closed, the restaurants are closed, and the bars are closed. You Hawaiians are missing out, man!
@narcisco, your comment at 10:01 is missing a closing double quote.
Thats why i spelled it out,
“Hypocritical concern trolls.”
I saw a hypocritical stance of the sanctity of life expressed by the Lt Governor.
Y'all ever heard of Ft. Detrick in Maryland?
You should - it was the home of the Army"s Biological Weapon Lab..
When Tricky Dick Nixon launched his "War on Cancer" in 1970 (to distract us from the actual war in Vietnam) he changed the name Ft. Detrick to something more palatable - National Institute of Health (NIH).
Do y'all know the Chinese Communists' counterpart to our Ft. Derrick? Why, that would be the Wuhan Institute of Virology. .
Wuhan?
Hmmm. Coinkydinky?
Above the Law
David Lat remains sedated and on a ventilator as he undergoes experimental treatment for COVID-19. Our thoughts re with him and his family at this difficult time.
https://twitter.com/atlblog/status/1242231808084844549
I'm sure everyone here wishes him well.
Clicking through to the Above the Law story, yes, he is on the H&A regimen (as well as many prayers).
Mark, it has occurred to all of us that your professed field--Christian education---should make you compassionate to those afflicted with this disease.
Yet you sneer and mock such folk (including those who are asymptomatic and have no reason for thinking otherwise) for traveling, and condemn (and wish to punish) the airlines that allowed them to do so.
You, sirrah, are the male version of the prissy, sanctimonious and hypocritical Church Lady.
May God protect the unfortunate kids you are "instructing" about Christian virtues.
When did I profess to be that whole?
And when did you get together with everyone else in order to be their spokesperson?
Inga: "Their argument about the sanctity of life sort of falls flat after all the talk of sacrificing grandma and grandpa. The Pro Life argument has been weakened."
Such terrible lies from the party of post-birth abortion and selling baby parts for fun and profit.
Wasnt ken b willing to bring the sam barteries out of storage.
I shouldn't be surprised of course. Inga was still pushing the Trump-called-the-virus-a-hoax lie last week and she still believes there was Trump/russia collusion and that Carter Page is a russian spy.
remember grid 212 in die hard
Where did you go, whole? You were so quick to shoot off your mouth to call me out. Don't want to answer?
H said...
One reason I have little respect for the professional pundit class: every article/opinionpiece says, "This coronavirus experience just reinforces what I already thought and proves what a genius I am." Can anyone refer me to an article that says something like, "Before the virus scare I thought X, but now I am inclined to believe not-X"?
I saw one, by Matt Ridley. It was pretty unambiguous that he was very wrong about the risk of pandemic. I have no link google. Zogby said Trump stepped up. Those are all I can think of.
Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
·
1h
Pelosi is so used to having the media act as her shameless propaganda arm, she got overconfident and sloppy-
Her lib wish list bill is the most disgusting legislative hostage taking effort in living memory, and people are waking up to this reality
Quote Tweet
The Hill
@thehill
· 2h
Speaker Pelosi: "There is a whole concern in our country that if we're giving tens of billions of dollars to the airlines, that we could at least have a shared value about what happens to the environment."
0:35
"Her lib wish list bill is the most disgusting legislative hostage taking effort in living memory, and people are waking up to this reality"
Pelosi and the Dems venality was breathtaking.
Since ARM and Inga are running hot with their current (and haphazardly concocted) set of lies, we should probably get some estimates going.
The "Greatest Generation" category generally includes those born between 1901 and 1927, which means its basically everyone over 93.
However, lets just expand that and consider it everyone over 85.
2018 numbers shows that cohort to number about 2.1 to 2.3 million Americans.
So, I'm guessing that throwing that entire generation under the bus, according to ARM and his Inga mini-me, would mean, what? At least half dead, right? So we should be looking for approximately 1 million Americans of that age killed within the next 6 to 9 months.
I'm sure everyone will be paying close attention to those numbers as the nation moves forward to avoid running into a prolonged depression, which is what the dems/lefties/LLR-lefties so desperately desire.
I'm even more confident ARM will be back here at that time to offer his heartfelt apology for making such an embarrassing prediction.
??
Figures.
We are all Ted Kaczynski now.
Stuck in our pseudo-cabins, writing our mini-manifestos comment by comment.
There is no reason for you mailing that package.
I am Laslo.
Whats with the lindsay wagner look
https://mobile.twitter.com/tristan_puig/status/1242549724911030272
Damar guesting on Enterprise.
"Before the virus scare I thought X, but now I am inclined to believe not-X"?
Before the virus scare, I thought governors couldn't just empty prisons, but now I am inclined to believe they can, somehow, because.
Before the crisis scare, I thought Trump could only function well if he had normal successes to boast about, but now I am inclined to believe he can also function well in a crisis.
Before the crisis scare, I thought no epidemic could destroy the (American, world) economy, but now I am inclined to believe it can (not saying it will).
Before the crisis, I thought the Dems were scum interested only in the pursuit of power BAMN and not letting a crisis go to waste, but now I am inclined to believe they are even worse than I thought they were.
Laslo Spatula said...
We are all Ted Kaczynski now.
--
Especially as hair-cutting is on locksdown and hoodies become the norm.
This is very interesting. I did some poking around on just how many people die from things that have similar effects as Coronavirus, and the numbers are quite large.
#1: According to the CDC, "chronic lower respiratory disease" (CLPD) is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States (after heart disease, cancer, and accidents). It's an umbrella term that encompasses emphysema, chronic bronchitis, asthma, pulmonary hypertension, and occupational lung diseases.
CLPD killed 160,201 people, in 2017 the most recent year reported. Cigarette smoking is the cause of 80% of these deaths - that's 128,160. The other 20%, us non-smokers, amount to 32,040 people per year. All dying of lower respiratory diseases.
#2: The CDC lists "influenza and pneumonia" as the 8th leading cause of death, at 55,672 people per year.
If we add up #1 and #2 and exclude smokers, that's 87,812 people per year dying of stuff that looks similar to Coronavirus.
What's the point? The point is: there are a LOT of people out there already dying from flu, pneumonia, and non-smoking related lung disease, even *without* Coronavirus. WTF??
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm.
The Unabomber In His Own Words doc series on Netflix is worth a look, btw.
I guess my larger point is: we need to be taking better care of our lungs! What do we all need to be doing differently (besides not smoking, which is a no-brainer)??
Let's say this thing turns out not to be as deadly as our worst fears. Let's hope for that, too. But this experience is instructive for how our system and leadership can act to save lives in the event of a pandemic of a far deadlier virus. We're not good at calculating or otherwise grasping tail risk, and the risk averse data driven nerds among us, to whom many important people turn in a situation like this, are rendered useless by problematic data. They're playing with models and whining about data, and whether they're predicting catatrasophe or telling people to chill out because there's not enough data to panic yet, they are useless at best, more likely dangerous. Our federal system is not particularly conducive towards coordinating swift and decisive action: if we'd acted promptly in late January, a 2-3 week "shelter at home" course of social distancing could have stopped this thing dead in its tracks (and if I'd acted decisively, I'd have a lot more money in my brokerage account). So, we can take that away, assuming and hoping for a good health and eventually economic outcome: we've got work to do because at some point there will be a deadlier virus pandemic. Unlike a rogue asteroid blasting us out of orbit, this is something we have the means to influence positively, but only if we figure it out. At best, this is all a (hopefully mostly) dry run for the next time. There are things we did well, but there are some obvious things we did not do well.
Trump’s tweet about Asian Americans and coronavirus failed to acknowledge his own xenophobia
He called for the protection of the Asian American community even as his own actions have stoked xenophobia.
By Li Zhouli@vox.com Mar 24, 2020, 2:45pm EDT
--
Fuck Zhou
What was happening jan 2, world war 3 was being spoken of.
In late January, we banned travel to and from China. That was impressive. If we'd rallied people behind social distancing at that time, if that were even possible, we might have prevented widespread infection in the US. And we could have done it in just a few weeks.
The Guy who is Not a Toilet-Paper Hoarder says...
Yes, I will concede that I may have acquired more toilet paper than I can reasonably need, although a supposed line between unreasonable and excessive is really a delicate concept that I believe most people are not willing to discuss in good faith right now.
Nor do I exult in power for having copious amounts of toilet paper, when others are only now realizing that they have not prepared properly for their basic needs. Note that I am not saying that I do not FEEL power, only that I do not EXULT in this power; it is more a feeling of serene satisfaction that most of you will not understand.
Part of that satisfaction is knowing that I can exhibit benevolence by providing a roll to someone in need: in that regard I am a king of a very peculiar kingdom, but a king nonetheless.
It is a decision and a responsibility that I do not take lightly, especially in terms of my Art.
You see, I consider each roll an art piece of my creation; surely this no big leap from Duchamp's urinal. Each roll represents the question of what Man really needs: is toilet paper a 2-ply veneer of civilization, or does its existence deceptively implicate our desires to remove ourselves from our basic functions?
I am not charging twenty dollars for a roll of toilet paper; I am charging twenty dollars for a roll of toilet paper with a signed Certificate of Authenticity from the Artist: me.
You purchase the art piece, and now the statement begins: provided as art, do you respect the roll as art, or do you negate the artistic expression and use the piece in a disposable -- and dare I say philistine --manner?
Because to use the roll in a utilitarian way, you are deciding that your opinion of art is more important than the art itself. As an example: would you wipe your dirty posterior with the Mona Lisa? No? So you are determining what art is worth saving and what is not, not unlike Hitler and the art he deemed decadent and subversive.
In purchasing my art piece you are buying the choice of making a decision -- and that decision IS a statement that you will then make, one way or the other.
Civilization: it has tottered on less.
I am Laslo.
Good job, @Ryan! Digging in the right areas.
"would you wipe your dirty posterior with the Mona Lisa? No? So you are determining what art is worth saving and what is not, not unlike Hitler and the art he deemed decadent and subversive"
If Mona Lisa was printed on TP, normally might be fun to turn it into a shit eating grin.
Right about now, I'd prefer a roll with Winnie Xi Wu Flu's face on it.
In Ann Arbor, they used to sell TP with Woody Hayes' picture on it.
Hmm..kinda deflates the currency, Mark.
https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/
Early on during the beginning of the Trump phenomenon I was strong on Scott Adams for a number of reasons, primarily because of Adams’s track record of predicting certain things regarding Trump and Trump’s techniques. But at the same time I began to discover YouTube, another phenomenon that I had previously paid very little attention to.
Since then YouTube, which I access through Roku, has become my main source of news, information and entertainment. I rarely watch the cable lineup except for sporting events and sports analysis shows. And now not even that. No FoxNews, no CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, etc.
So I ditched Scott Adams because Adams seemed to do a lot of beating around the bush and because of something Adams does that Adams calls the “simultaneous sip,” which I found particularly annoying. And there were so many other wonderful things on YouTube that began to take up my time.
But recently I looked into Adams’s channel and found it to be a gold mine of interesting stuff. There’s less beating around the bush these days, perhaps because there’s so much to talk about lately. The simultaneous sip is still there but I just page through it until that part is over.
I heartily recommend Adams now. He has many intriguing ideas and info on the Wuhan virus and other things. Give him a try if you haven’t already. You may find him useful.
So curious how we're going to look back on this in a year from now....
stay healthy y'all
By August we're going to be looking back and wondering how we let so many business and workers go broke all because of a Chinese cough. Mark my words.
Neither my job nor my wife's is in danger due to this downturn, at least not in any immediate sense. My side gigs are secure and will easily pick back up. But many, many others cannot say anything close to the same. I feel for them.
Ryan said... about the underlying illness issue. I've taken to watching a veterinarian show set in mid-Michigan. He treats many herds, sheep, cattle Amish people's horses etc. Recently we've been hearing "herd immunity" spoken about. That led me to thinking. Our herd of record has in recent past seen respiratory illness, measles among them. This country got a lot of broken fences, lotta strays. Wonder how this impacts "herd immunity" going forward. I'm just sayin.
Democrats want conservatives to shut up. Conservatives want dems to keep talking. Is Pelosi really working for Trump?
Social distancing knocks down both coronavirus and flu, and common colds for that matter.
Blogger Sebastian said...
"Before the virus scare I thought X, but now I am inclined to believe not-X"?
This is good stuff.
Something to think about. With coffee.
If You Have Any Confusion Then Visit Our Site
http://onlinegrowyourself.net/
Lots of good news from round the world today, with the best from South Korea:
The first report, from the science journal Science, provides an update on the situation in South Korea, where testing for the virus has been the most thorough of any nation in the world and where, because of that extensive testing, has shown the death rate has turned out to be far lower than the preliminary statistics have suggested. Out of a population of 50 million, slightly more than 8,000 have been infected, with only 81 dying. This is a death rate of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so. And like the flu, most of those deaths have been among the elderly.
And South Korea flattened the curve with simple social distancing and hand washing. NO LOCK DOWNS. So maybe we can shake off our panic and crank America back up to speed. More great Links here:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-the-unwarranted-panic/
He called for the protection of the Asian American community even as his own actions have stoked xenophobia.
By Li Zhouli@vox.com Mar 24, 2020, 2:45pm EDT
Another projected phobic response.
The definition of think piece needs to be reconsidered.
Prince Chuckles blundered himself into a COVOD-19 infection. That's why I voted for Koo Stark, Andy's girlfriend, for Queen.
"The point is: there are a LOT of people out there already dying from flu, pneumonia, and non-smoking related lung disease, even *without* Coronavirus."
Right. Other numbers rehearsed here previously. So the question is: what is the rate of excess deaths? More specifically, considering that Wuhan hits the old and sick disproportionately, what is the excess rate of lost QALYs?
At this point, we don't know, since "deaths" are reported in a way to fuel the panic.
Which is a call for data, not a claim that we should not worry about the Wuhan virus.
And South Korea flattened the curve with simple social distancing and hand washing. NO LOCK DOWNS. So maybe we can shake off our panic and crank America back up to speed. More great Links here:
The climbdown is really hard, once people are so frightened. Look at the people on Twitter (including Joe Biden) saying things like "You don't have to die for me so my stocks can rise" or "No person should die so the stock market can recover"
People who are frightened are having a hard time even imagining a way out of this- other than what? 0 cases anywhere?
As I've said before, I saw this with SARS. The US media had me in a panic, my husband in Hong Kong convinced me things were going back to normal there, and they were. It wasn't until the US Media decided the Iraq war was interesting again did they drop the SARS panic coverage.
"Mark said...
In Ann Arbor, they used to sell TP with Woody Hayes' picture on it."
That's about the last time they beat the Buckeyes.
"This X experience just reinforces what I already thought and proves what a genius I am"
Seems like a pretty common blog commenter paradigm as well, among some.
P.S.: Laslo: good work.
Weren’t we supposed to have THOUSANDS dead and dying by now? How long do we believe the chicken littles?
Interesting question raised by a Philly talk radio host this morning.
Does anyone not believe that if the election were held today, Trump would win in a landslide?
Anyone?
BTW, the Corona virus seems to be having a strange effect on those suffering from TDS.
It is making them even stupider.
"The climbdown is really hard, once people are so frightened."
You can see that in the comments here.
"And South Korea flattened the curve with simple social distancing and hand washing. NO LOCK DOWNS."
That is not what South Korea did. They closed schools, told people to work from home, and initiated the most aggressive testing and contact tracing program in the world.
Mark: "Too many companies took the lesson to be -- hey, we are "too big to fail," we can be reckless and poor stewards of our assets and if things get tough, the government will come in and give us a bunch of cash. And while our employees may get hurt, screw them because we executives will keep living well -- all thanks to the American taxpayer."
Small businesses employ 49.2% of the work force - 120 million people. Spoiler alert: many do operate on the edge, hence don't have a lot of reserve, and none of them are going to get a bailout.
Freeman the article said no lockdowns, so please advise if you have contrary data:
Moreover, South Korea controlled the situation without any strong-arm authoritarian tactics, as seen in China and as becoming popular here in the formerly free U.S.
“South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University.
Moreover, South Korea controlled the situation without any strong-arm authoritarian tactics, as seen in China and as becoming popular here in the formerly free U.S.
But their cultural norms are very much about collectivist responsibility, unlike Americans who complain and defy requests to refrain from events like Mardi Gras, St Patrick’s Day, and Spring Break.
We’ve made such a totem of individual liberty that we can’t voluntarily give up some of that for the collective good, when that happens, expect the state to step in.
@Jersey Fled, untrue! They always were that stupid, and perhaps even more stupid yet, but now they’ve lost their inhibitions about showing it.
"This is a death rate of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so. And like the flu, most of those deaths have been among the elderly."
It's actually lower than that because we are dealing only with tested and confirmed cases. People who feel a little blah, run a fever for a few days, then get back to normal (milder cases) are not in the medical system because they are not tested nor hospitalized.
I believe in Ohio, you have to have a doctor order the test. You can't just show up and say "test me." You have to be presenting with symptoms that you believe are serious enough to go to a doctor first.
We haven't initiated an aggressive testing and contact tracing program like South Korea. We probably already have more cases than we have manpower because too many of our people aren't following social distancing directives. It would be good to transition to such a program, but we'll have to bring down the numbers first. Since people refuse to do it on their own, we may end up having to lock down.
"Unlike other countries—like the United States, where only people showing symptoms are recommended to be tested—South Korea tests anyone who had been in contact with a confirmed case, and tracks down by credit card activity, surveillance camera footage and mobile phone tracking those who are potentially exposed, a measure that has proved effective but has raised questions about privacy."
South Korea
That can work, but you have to do it. So far, we aren't doing it. Thanks, CDC.
Since people refuse to do it on their own, we may end up having to lock down.
Freeman, get real. We are not locking down the whole country.
It continues to amaze me how the people who are at home all the time anyway -- the retired and the homeschoolers -- blithely assume that actions taken that don't affect them will be accepted by those they do affect. I know, I know, you are reading facts and concluding that no really this is obviously necessary, duh!. I think you are blinkered by your own lifestyle. Others are also blinkered by their lifestyles in which it's a huge, huge disruption to be home all the time and are looking at the same facts and coming to different conclusions and they have voices and the ability to apply pressure too.
Far less than a thousand deaths. I'm sorry to tell you this but this is not an emergency to most of the country. There are not bodies piling up in the streets. You may disagree and that's your right but the danger to most lies in an imaginary projection of what happens in a city far away. This is not enough for people to comply with a lockdown.
The problem, Pants, is that by the time the hospitalizations and deaths are enough to convince people like yourself that staying home is indicated, it will be too late.
I understand that you disagree that this is likely to cause that much damage, but surely you can see the logic and the reasons that we are tryin* to convince you of this.
"blithely assume that actions taken that don't affect them will be accepted by those they do affect"
Fact not in evidence.
The risk of noncompliance is real: we already see that many people, even in the worst affected areas, are not abiding by the federal or often harsher local guidelines. What we haven't seen is how much emphasis we are willing to put on enforcement, either at the federal or local level. One takeaway for any future pandemic is that besides acting sooner, we may have to act more harshly at an earlier point if we want broad compliance. That's scary in several ways. It may be attributable to our national character and/or the federalist charter of the country, but collective actions in the name of tail risk mgmt are not an American forte.
The problem, Pants … deaths … to convince … it will be too late…etc.
Give it up. It’s a waste of time and energy. Write for the readers, not our contrarians. It’s not a matter of “convince.” They’ll never be convinced. Not now. Not after its over. Never.
I think it’s a matter of ego. Once they took a stance in the beginning … it was locked tight. I guess their self-regard depends on never being wrong.
The same multi-national response world-wide? Doesn’t matter. So … it’s all a conspiracy … all the governments all over the globe are doing this for … for … who knows what they actually believe. In a blizzard of numbers and cultural factors – many of them contradictory, unknown or vaguely and imperfectly known they’ll cherry pick and deny. Give it up. They are incapable of being convinced of anything once they make up their minds.
Give it up. It’s a waste of time and energy. Write for the readers, not our contrarians. It’s not a matter of “convince.” They’ll never be convinced. Not now. Not after its over. Never.
I think it’s a matter of ego. Once they took a stance in the beginning … it was locked tight. I guess their self-regard depends on never being wrong.
I get it, Grackle, and don’t really expect to convince. I think if we could get to the point though of respecting other opinions, and not assuming bad faith, it would be helpful. And while i think ego generally plays a role in hardening positions, I also think in the current situation a big problem is lack of trust in authorities, which is understandable because our institutions and people in positions of authority are so corrupt. In that sense it’s possible that we as individuals can try to convince each other.
It's deeper than a lack of trust in our very low quality elite. We don't think probabilistically and when we try, we are particularly bad at factoring in the effects of a very low probability, high severity event. Our brains don't do it well, and the models we build don't either. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has made a brilliant career in investment, academic and popular publishing and generally as a public intellectual on this central insight.
It's our "black swan" problem namely that we don't see them in our heads or our equations. The best constructive advice I've seen on this comes from Harry D. Crane, a statistics/complexity academic rising star and Taleb acolyte.
When gambling, think about what's probable.
When hedging, think about what's plausible.
When preparing, think about what's possible.
We're bad at both 2 and 3 on that list. The propounders of the precautionary principle have some limitations, because applied too broadly or in the wrong context it turns one into a drag and a worrywart, but I think it applies to pandemics, which we can potentially influence: when the risk is terrible, and action possible, even if the bad outcome is highly unlikely it can make sense to act early and even aggressively. Distinguishing these situations is a problem of philosophy, though.
Laslo, do your Certificates of Authenticity come with Certificates of Authenticity?
If not, they're not worth the paper they're printed on.
Narr
Once I thought Xi, now I think Xit!
Sitting around waiting for quality data or modeling overly specific scenarios using complex models and shitty data is not helpful, but that's the typical response of intelligent and academically trained people.
Daskol, you’re right, we’re not good at evaluating this kind of scenario. In better circumstances, though, we’d trust that there are people who are skilled and experienced at doing so and we’d heed their warnings. Our “experts” have squandered their ability to convince the masses though.
According to Nassim Taleb, Trump enacted the January China travel ban over the objections of his own scientists and advisors on the strength of a memo that Nassim and some colleagues got in front of some senior Trump advisors.
Our elected leaders are mostly of the ilk of the Hindmost.
Narr
Especially, but not only, the Dims
I don't know if anybody has already linked to this, but I'm quite excited about it.
It's a YouTube by a German doctor, Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, and it's a very good piece of reasoning.
See Credible insights into the Coronavirus by Dr. Wolfgang Wodart
Basically he is arguing that this is an illusion. We are misattributing deaths to the Coronavirus. He argues that normally 7 to 14 percent of the people that had the flu in the past had a Coronavirus. And we called it flu. But we knew it was the Coronavirus. And what we are doing now is taking deaths, many of which would normally occur, and in the past we would have called it the flu, and are now attributing them to the Coronavirus.
He has to be at least partly correct. Some of these numbers aren't real.
It would be good to transition to such a program, but we'll have to bring down the numbers first. Since people refuse to do it on their own, we may end up having to lock d
The numbers, the curve, is being flattened by a LOT of self-monitored social distancing and shutting down much of the three states hardest hit. Yes the people at Chinese New Year in NYC and the Mardi Gras idiots in New Orleans caused a hump in the data from their cities, but MOST Americans are complying at is has worked. The system is not overwhelmed as was the fear two weeks ago.
The concern is that this is a novel coronavirus: one nobody has immunity to, and one whose spread and virulence are unknown but are potentially very scary. I will watch the video, but it's fundamentally this novel aspect that represents the tail risk of this virus.
I'm older and sometimes it seems the country shut down to save us olders. Thanks. But here's My Ted Kaczynski manifesto (Even my hair is way too long but no way to get it cut) on why we shouldn't shut down in the fall when this comes again now that we know more.
This is bad for everyone with preexisting respiratory problems.
The outbreak is a series of outbreaks in different places each with a rate of infection that forms a bell curve. It approaches, lift up, declines in 4-6 weeks in relation to each individual bell curve. The individual bell curves are being combined into flat line upward, i.e. number of cases world-wide. It would be better to locate the major bell curves such as New York City and separate them out and identify where each location is on its own bell curve. Then you could show that NYC, for example, is about to need a lot of respirators for three weeks whereas Seattle's need is declining and Sioux Falls has plenty.
So, then, you start on the left side of the bell curve with TRACK and TRACE. You track and trace like a South Korean everywhere. This shows where the different bell curves are and where the worse ones developing (including some kind of index multiple for "number with preexisting respiratory problems" to multiply against "number of covid infections")and how many weeks to lift-off. After TRACK and TRACE comes TREAT. You're going up on the left side and across the top of the bell curve and the places on that part of their bell curve need the special drugs, the respirators, the ventilators, the extra doctors and nurses, the field hospitals. Then comes TRAILING AWAY as the places go down the right side of their bell curve after 4-6 weeks when you slow down shipments of needed TREAT items into the area. The question is when are people with respiratory problems most at risk in relation to their local curve? The danger is they'll catch it and have it seriously in great numbers causing inability to treat them when their area is crossing top of the bell curve. So their maximum danger is across the top of their local bell curve, not someone's else's curve.
So there's
Everyone with respiratory issues needs to be very careful.
Epidemiology to track and find the bell curves
Clinical medicine to get the drugs and respirators and treat
Research to find the drugs and, above all, the vaccine.
Public health to warn of the need to wash hands and to warn when the local bell curve is lifting up.
It's like tornadoes - you don't go down in the basement and stay there in "tornado weather" during the tornado season till its over. You track your own area.
The concern is that this is a novel coronavirus: one nobody has immunity to
On the other hand, all the data so far indicates 90% of those exposed have no symptoms and do acquire antibodies. Very SARS-like. Not that "novel," in that regard.
It's not so much the data indicating that, as inference from available information suggests that this has spread widely and that many/most people have mild to no symptoms. It's decreasingly novel with each passing day, such that wildswan's approach to the next outbreak of this virus may make sense based on the available information. But what to do right now, or a couple of months ago, under conditions of great uncertainty and possible disaster? We're still in "possible disaster" horizon, with the possibility of overwhelmed hospitals in multiple places.
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