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१०५ टिप्पण्या:
T.RAT.UMP
Nice tail.
Ratasaurus Rex
Good looking fox.
Lowr-case chuck-- how you doin'?
That's not a tail. That's a fart cloud!!
Loud lightning strike a quarter mile down the road
https://www.flickr.com/photos/rhhardin/48075924567/sizes/o
knocked out house power for 15 minutes until the automatic reconfiguration found an alternate route around it; but at the pole is the phone company substation and it ran out of power after six hours on battery, so nobody had phone or dsl after that. Gone are the days of the phone working when the power is out.
Did the telegraph system survive the Carrignton event?
I never got around to wishing all a Happy Fathers Day, including my worst and most vicious critics on these comments pages, of which there seem to be more and more.
You can't make this shit up.
A new rat!
I like it.
Sure you can Chuck, watch me: 404
I love this from the Roger Stone trial: ”the government does not need to prove at the defendant’s trial that the Russians hacked the DNC”
Good thing for the government, because they can’t prove it. They never looked at anything other than a redacted draft of the Crowdstrike report, a contractor hired by the DNC, a report the DNC claims was never finished.
@David Begley
has meade ever explained the meaning of the "Begley Rat"?
You know who else called themselves “Republicans”? The commies in the Spanish Civil War. Just sayin’ Chuck/
More critics?
Does that give you a clue?
Pro-tip: It doesn't mean you're fab or right.
Suddenly the “Life long Republican” shtick makes sense!
I've been concerned about this for some time, and I can't find anyplace where this is addressed. Any links or opinions, appreciated.
Every pundit and commentator expressing an opinion about the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination is viewing the 2020 race using lessons from the races in 2016 and before. But the 2020 Democratic nomination uses a set of rules that are fundamentally different. At the 2020 Democratic convention, delegates from each state are allocated by percentage strength within that state. So if a primary had candidate x = 30% and candidate y at 15% and other candidates at less than 15%, that primary would have pledged all of the states delegates to candidate x in 2016 and prior; but in 2020 would pledge only 30% of the state delegates to candidate x and would pledge 15% of the delegates to candidate y, and etc.
So it is possible (in my opinion very likely) that the first ballot at the Democratic convention in summer of 2020 will show something like: Biden 30%, Sanders, 18%, Warren 10%, Buttigieg 8%, etc. etc. Which means: Biden does not win the nomination on the first ballot. Which means: there will be a second ballot. Which means: there will be a lot of back-room negotiation. So (using my example numbers) Sanders could say, “Warren I’ll nominate you to the Supreme Court,” “Mayor Pete, I’ll make you VP) and (somebody else: Secretary of State or ???) And suddenly on the second ballot it is Bernie 46%, Biden 32%, etc. And so we go to a third ballot.
My point is not that Biden is doomed to fail, or that Bernie is bound to win. My point is that the analysis based on 2016 and prior experiences are really irrelevant to analyzing the 2020 democratic race. The winner may be someone not even in the race (Hillary?!! Or Merrick Garland !! or Stacey Abrams ! or John Kasick !!) So maybe the reason that no pundits/commentators/ will address this is that it is the ultimate shrugging of shoulders anything-can-happen secenario which is boing to the canble news audience.
A perkins and coie connected dnc contractor, whose chief exec has allegiance to Mueller. You cant make this up.
Blogger Nobody said...
Sure you can Chuck, watch me: 404
--
Not surprisingly..no there there.
So they took the 1972 convention rules and said 'hold my beer' the point is it doesn't matter who the candidate is, they are all certifiable.
Nobody: "Suddenly the “Life long Republican” shtick makes sense!"
About 3 years ago a certain racist poster from MI who claimed to be a lawyer decided that labeling himself a "lifelong republican" would create a perfect platform from which to advance every single far left and democrat talking point and narrative.
In the end, not so much! LOL
Just tulsi is more photogenic than most, but mayor Howdy compares Catholicism with wahhabism, the state faith that would have hinder a pile of rocks.
@Inga
I can’t recall. I have, however, hounded the two of them to commercialize Ann’s rat IP. My fav: Althouse Aprons.
I would say gremlins but ymmv
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2019/06/a-party-run-by-children.html?spref=fb&fbclid=IwAR1e-CsD1579MTL1HrPqr6mKmD5VCyrxdJBPOPGRpQti6Nl51L8E6m3pl6Y&m=1
H
You are on to something. The DNC rigged it for Michelle. She won’t have to do the primaries. Just a coronation. Michelle will bring us together.
@David Begley
we were hoping you knew-- Meade had eluded to this mysterious dish a couple of weeks ago and we wondered if you knew about it. We axed Meade, but no reply.
Should we ever go "full Venezuela", knowing how to prepare a rat will come in handy.
@narciso
the NXIVM branding ceremony vid has been leaked on twitter?
Viewer discretion advised
Chuck: "including my worst and most vicious critics"
LOL. You take yourself WAY too seriously. You're awake all night thinking too much about anonymous strangers who regard you as a joke, if it all.
Chuck: "But enough about me, let's talk more about...ME!"
Oh I'm sure you will.
"In tonight's episode, our hero bravely speaks truth to the Nazi Cheeto Menance that has mind-controlled the Deplorables into ever more grandoise schemes of fascism!"
Two different movies.
As I have been saying all along, it will be Michelle who gets the nomination
Which is why all the dems are jumping in: create the circumstance that no current dem candidate could begin to hope for a first ballot nomination.
Just imagine the thrill up the legs of Chris Mathews and LLR Chuck when Michelle shows up out of nowhere to get the nomination.
You thought the dems/left/LLR-left was sycophantic towards The "Lightbringer"? You aint seen nothing yet.
has meade ever explained the meaning of the "Begley Rat"?
I thought is was Bigsy Rat (& Itchy Brother)
here's an interesting quote
“Is racism & sexism in decline? Then we’ll broaden the definitions so that they are increasing!”
Is poverty declining? Then we’ll invent new types of poverty so that more people are poor!
Leftism is a language game designed to expand the State forever."
Orwell explained it all in 1948
Mo would rather live the socialite life
Third Drink rat.
I think the new convention rules will bring in Hillary at least as a possibility - back from the dead and clawing at delegates' car windshields. But I also think that if it goes to anyone but Bernie, the party will split. And Bernie is falling behind Tin Lizzie.
Yikes, the real hellfire with a touch of eyes wide shut (btw tapper badly plagiarized both the x men comic and the first class film)
“You are on to something. The DNC rigged it for Michelle. She won’t have to do the primaries. Just a coronation. Michelle will bring us together”
I don’t think that Michelle wins the general election that way. Bernie Bros aren’t going to be hPpy losing twice in a row to a rigged nomination process. The other thing is that I am not so sure she wins anyway. Her husband’s Administration spied on political opponents, they got illegal access to IRS records for ,political opponents. Etc. Besides, BHO could provide the sharp creases and no content speeches. She has always been an a angry black women, despite having had many middle class privileges, then attended good schools, got a prestigious job as an associate, etc. And she was never proud of being an American until her husband became President. Isn’t going to play well with much of the country.
Michelle?? I hadn't thought. But why not? or Is Nancy Pelosi too old? But I actually believe these kinds of speculations are at least as likely as Biden. What I wonder is why isn't anyone else talking like this? Or have I missed it? Why is everyone acting as though this (elimination of winner take all primaries) doesn't matter and we can speculate on the 2020 convention as though it was just like the 2016 convention?
As I have been saying all along, it will be Michelle who gets the nomination
I would not be surprised. The Democrats have no idea of policy. They have no interest in the middle class or the working class. They have a top and bottom coalition. Anyone who lives in a gated community or who lives in a high rise apartment building with a doorman are part of the top. The bottom are the illegals and the blacks who they are losing to Trump and don't know
it.
Mo doesn't have the ambition at this point. And there are a good amount of Dems who feel B.O. did shit for the party.
I think Michelle thinks she has served two tours of duty in hell and that's it. She hates America and Americans; she hated the White House and the whole First Lady thing. She did it; it's done; now she's rich and having fun.
I think it will be Michael Dukakis redux, Burgermeister Buttigieg Now with a new gay scent!
"They never looked at anything other than a redacted draft of the Crowdstrike report, a contractor hired by the DNC, a report the DNC claims was never finished."
Hey! I'll have you know 17 agencies didn't read that report.
I don’t think that Michelle wins the general election that way.
I do not understand why people think Michelle Obama is going to run. It's not gonna happen. & Oprah isn't running either. it's gonna be one of the ten thousand candidates who are running.
Election Predictions (1) It will likely be close. (2) It'll be decided by Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. (3) Watch the margins in the WOW suburbs of Milwaukee. (4) I predict lots and lots of rallies from both candidates in those states. (5) I feel sorry for the residents of those states. You all are gonna get real sick of the hullabaloo.
Ot, samuel Jackson seems to be becoming toxic with his latest screeds, he only appeared in brief in endgame, has a larger part in shaft sequel which bombed this weekend and we'll see how far from home fares
Chuck: "Why isn't everybody talking about my latest troll splash?! CANNONBALL!"
Hang on, I'm sure they'll get around to talking about you again.
Any moment now...
Soooooon...
Carrying over from earlier thread:
https://www.americanthinker.com/
That one is about herr Mueller,
Jackson got "snapped" in part 1, so there's darn little he could have done in part 2. Compare and contrast to Captain Marvel who was supposed to be such a thing, and then barely showed up herself in part 2.
Yes they signed her to a seven picture deal, and begrudged scarlet one stand a lone film,
Bruce:
Barack spied on his political opponents but Michelle is purer than Caesar’s wife. Her book has sold thousands of copies. She is beloved by the right people. First woman president. Bring us together. Historic.
Bonus. Barack at State. He will restore our standing in the world.
Mayor Pete as VP.
Also think of all the drama and excitement as Michelle comes in to save the country. The Dems will be bored and tired with the 23 candidates by next Summer. I mean how much hectoring by Liz can America stand?
Rats play basketball. Look out Toronto; Rachel the Rat wants a piece of you!
Look at the key states Trump has to win: WI, MI, OH, PA, NC and FL. A large Black vote for Michelle would be certain in those states.
Restore the good times of the Obama years! Happy days!
Barack, of course, will campaign for his wife.
The Obamas will sacrifice to save the country from more Trump.
The best part of a Michelle run is that’s she a total blank slate. She just needs to be the anti-Trump.
If Trump attacks her, he’s a racist.
The first woman President.
The first former First Lady President.
The first gay VP.
Intersectional heaven! Historic!
David Begley said. . .
Barack spied on his political opponents but Michelle is purer than Caesar’s wife. Her book has sold thousands of copies. She is beloved by the right people. First woman president. Bring us together. Historic.
The next "historic" President will be Nikki Haley. First Woman. First Woman of Color.
According to the tabloid in the checkout line today Michelle and Barack are headed for divorce.
https://cottonbureau.com/products/butte-rats#/1349966/tee-men-standard-tee-light-grey-100percent-cotton-xs
The Obamas will prefer to run train on Netflix, perhaps sock puppeting a pliable Dem willing to do the work of getting elected
...Look at the key states Trump has to win: WI, MI, OH, PA, NC and FL. A large Black vote for Michelle would be certain in those states...
Not if Michelle tells them - if you like your job you can keep it.
Gosh darn it Chuck. I would appear everyone else is ignoring you.
Except me. We're stuck in this together, soooooo....
Do you have any 5s?
Warren, Biden, Harris, and Beto are the only ones who are currently running who have a shot.
Warren is the Dem's 2020 version of Dukakis, who, remember this, did a lot better than Mondale. and while she is a deluded sad ignorant modernist, she seems to be a lot less unlikeable than Hillary Clinton, who almost won, and would have won if she had only visited a few more states ......
Biden is the Dem's 2020 version of Jimmy Carter, who was not old like Biden but was similarly a plainly stupid man. Being obviously stupid is less of a drawback than most people think - and no Jimmy Carter was not a nuclear engineer. That was a lie.
Harris is a lot like Obama. Remember she is a former prosecutor, just like he was a former law student. Don't underestimate the sheeple's admiration for lawyers, particularly prosecutor-type lawyers.
Beto is stupid, but nowhere near as stupid as he looks, and his rich wife has more rich friends than Melania does. Money talks, and the little guy knows a lot about money. How do you think Wilson won back in the day?
MIchelle Obama as president is interesting. If she had only been in ROTC at Princeton, I would think she would be the favored candidate.
Interestingly, all the billionaire middle-aged male Democrats who could finance their own campaigns are sitting this one out.
Back to Michelle, maybe she can go all neocon for a few months.
That would be sad and amoral, but if she hires a few neocons to make her look presidential, she can go further than she otherwise could.
Otoh ed Klein (who wrote an interesting ww2, the parachutists) did appraise us of where her resentment lies, it comes from feeling her fathers efforts were unappreciated by the combine.
But she is an extraordinary shrill and bitter person.
ormer Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett said she thinks Joe Biden would make a “terrific president,” but she won’t endorse anyone in the crowded Democratic primary right now.
“I think right now in the Democratic Party we have an embarrassment of riches,” Jarrett said on BuzzFeed News’ Profile.
Shes like a praying mantis:
https://mobile.twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1140293389218406401
in real life Nixon was extremely likable, he is the only president whose children all showed, year after year, completely honest appreciation for him.
The Sheeple are easily fooled. They think that he, Nixon, was not likable, because they are told that is what they should think
Everyone who worked or fought with Nixon in WWII Remembered him fondly. We had many WWII Veteran Presidents he is the only one who got that sort of admiration from his fellow warriors, (Truman was liked by his WWI fellow vets, though) ----- and Nixon is still treated by the losers who write the history that most sheeple consider to be accurate as some sort of unlikeable person
Kamala Harris is a lot more like Mary Ann than Ginger - remember that. You might see her accurately but most people don't and can't.
It might cost a few million bucks but the people who know how to manipulate the sheeple can make her look like an improved version of Captain Marvel ---- they know what they are doing. They should not be doing it, and they know that --- but they know what they are doing.
"Pick me, I am more like the girl next door"
most people don't understand
(Poirot understood these things, sorry if I am pastiching him a little too much tonight)
No stephen cooper I dont see it,
narciso you are not one of the sheeple of course you do not see it
People love prosecutors (Harris)
Warren is more likable than Hillary
Beto can make people think he can win Texas (he can't, I think)
and Biden is much less of a fool than Macron or Merkel and they both won easily.
One hopes Trumps is hiring people for his campaign who understand
I have thr goggles to see past the blank pages (and I dont like bubblegum)
and all they have to do is say that
the stock market will do well
and make people believe that
We are a republic not a democracy but ......
Hes a knave, that much is certain, the Rot is a decade ahead in France and Germany
The time to say nice doggie is passed for Mr ' he will put you all in chains'
the smell of bubblegum remains one of my favorite smells, would not want to chew bubblegum though
but I am older than 30 and nobody older than 30 likes bubblegum qua bubblegum
Garrigou-Lagrange explained this:
as did Saint Paul with those lines about how he had not so much left childish things behind ... well, he did ....
but that was not the point .... what was important was that he understood what is important in this life .....
Romans 11 - altitudo divitiarum sapientiae
Aristotle, in his Politics, had hoped for such corroborating evidence
I was riffing off the wanderer, Roddy piper, in 'they live' interesting we were reviewing Luke 18 the story of the blind beggar who encountered jesus in jericho.
The other connection was it was the blind priest in the shelter whi could nt see the aliens true form
I know very little about 1980s movies.
I watched Metropolitan a few times, though, Chloe Sevigny was funny .
Barcelona was good too, I liked the speech about how you don't really understand hamburgers unless
you know what they taste like when someone grilled them somewhere out in the country
The F-35 has some problems.
I loved Barcelona, I found metropolitan. A little too pretentious, I like the last days of disco to a point yes the anr farm also works as metaphor.
h,
You have misunderstood the primary rules, I think. You get no delegates without breaching the 15% threshold. So, in a scenario where candidate x = 30% and candidate y at 15% and other candidates at less than 15%, then candidate X gets 2/3s of the delegates, candidate y gets 1/3 of the delegates, and everybody else get jack shit.
I think this was a sop to the Bernie Bros, this change from winner take all, but it won't lead to a 2nd ballot at the convention due to the 15% hurdle- there will be only 2-3 state primary/caucus where more than 3 candidates even get delegates because of the 15% hurdle, and by the time of the first big multi-primary day, the race will be down to just two real contenders. You can use the Republican primaries of 2016 to model what happens in a large field- it narrows rapidly after New Hampshire. On Super Tuesday, the race was down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, and after Super Tuesday, it was just Trump and Cruz, and a mismatch at that.
You can break down 100% between 24 candidates a lot of ways, but realistically the most probable looking breakdown would be something like this: candidate A = 30%, candidate B = 20%, candidate C = 15%, candidate D = 10%, candidate E =5%, everyone else splits last 20%.
And that would just be the first primary/caucus. In the second one, "everyone" else would be splitting 5%, and after that candidates D and E are finished, and probably C, too.
You just won't see people voting in a primary for a candidate who can't finish in the top two at least once before the first big multi-primary voting day.
And even if I have somehow misunderstood the delegate assigning rules (I read it multiple times, and my interpretation seems correct)- it won't matter- 2/3 of the delegates will be assigned when the race is really just between two candidates, and not 24.
narciso - the males were being pretentious to amuse the females.
they thought it was the right thing to do.
that is how civilization continues from generation to generation
every guy wants to be one of the Three Stooges , except for the fact that none of the Stooges movies ever ended in love and marriage
(in real life Larry and Curly had very sexy wives - Larry's wife, for example, if the black and white pictures are accurate, was sort of like a prettier version of the famous American actress Renee Zellweger .... and Moe's wife, although not conventionally beautiful, was at least cute and very pleasant looking. I realize that such things are not important compared to things that are really important.... Proverbs 8, and so on, but it is worth mentioning in the context of whether Metropolitan was pretentious or not ---- of course it was, but it was funny)
That one looks more like a fox than a rat.
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...
...
Should we ever go "full Venezuela", knowing how to prepare a rat will come in handy.
Full Venezuela (from Demolition Man)
If you’re posting Presidential pontification in cafe posts you need to go Full Mick or no one will give a damn. You may win points on substance but will lose the event on style.
So if you’re going to go, go Full Mick.
Even if Ward is right, I can see the Obamas pulling this thing off. Maybe Biden quits right before the convention.
Think about it this way. Is there any great enthusiasm for Biden? Biden is number one because of name recognition and the belief he is moderate and can beat Trump. People would be fired up about the historic Michelle.
Our company is basically for the true leather addicts and we humbly say that our customers never go back without making any purchase on our page. It’s not the good words or long statements that we use with our customers in fact, it’s the commendable quality of our leather products which keeps on increasing our brand’s name in all over the world.
Yancey Ward at 12:22. Thank you for the information on how the thresholds will work. I found this explanation for anyone interested in more details: https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus So a brokered convention is more likely than it was in the past, but still far from likely, and 2020 will resemble 2016 (and before) more than I had thought.
Gary Woodland showed them how it’s done at the US Open. Great mental strength on display. Make Golf Great Again.
Michelle would lose to Trump.
Drudge "First Woman to Walk on Moon?"
the moon is always female.
Buttigieg = Howdy Doody.
Michelle has no wish to be President. If she was a woman that might ever have harbored such an ambition, Barack Obama would never have married her.
The Obamas are not the Clintons.
https://www.steynonline.com/9458/the-man-on-the-escalator
Some of us knew 3.75 years ago.
Others read the NYT.
Althouse’s drawing has the upper lip of a character from The Simpson’s.
Beto can no longer "win" or almost win Texas. He just opined that Texas will have to give up oil production for climate change and switch to wind "energy".
THEOLDMAN
The Sheeple are easily fooled. They think that he, Nixon, was not likable, because they are told that is what they should think
Nixon lived in San Clemente after leaving the White House in 1974. A friend of mine was his personal doctor and quite a few met him. I never did but heard no bad impressions. The Secret Service people were jerks. When he had his phlebitis, we thought we were going to end up caring for him. The Secret Service took over half our ICU in case he was admitted. We all heaved a sigh of relief when he went to Long Beach instead. There he had an obsolete operation done by the surgeon father of a big CA politician . Nixon was unlucky in his doctors. In New York City he died because he was taken off Coumadin when he had atrial fibrillation,. He had a massive embolic stroke.
I was never interested in very rich or famous patients because they tend to manipulate their treatment. Usually to their detriment.
very rich or famous patients because they tend to manipulate their treatment. Usually to their detriment.
Why do you think they do something so self-destructive? Because they've risen to wealth and fame by not trusting experts?
rhhardin said...
the moon is always female.
Except in German.
Why do you think they do something so self-destructive? Because they've risen to wealth and fame by not trusting experts?
You could ask Michael Jackson or Don Simpson. Both were rich famous patients. Both got doctors to give them what they wanted.
Both are dead. They have gotten the idea that they know everything from sycophants.
Think about it this way. Is there any great enthusiasm for Biden? Biden is number one because of name recognition and the belief he is moderate and can beat Trump.
@Dave Begley, there’s a firm belief on the part of many Democrats that Joe Biden could have beaten Trump in 2016 if only the Clintons hadn’t scared him out of the race. Possibly true, but Trump hadn’t run any commercials showing Biden touching little girls inappropriately, and Biden’s legendary penchant for gaffes needs to be factored in. Considering that Biden has been on both sides of every issue — including now the Hyde amendment — there is a lot of material for negative ads.
stephen cooper said...
Warren, Biden, Harris, and Beto are the only ones who are currently running who have a shot.
What, at being Sanders's VP candidate?
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