५ एप्रिल, २०१९
"U.S. Adds 196,000 Jobs in March; Unemployment at 3.8%/After a lackluster performance in February, the job market bounced back in March."
The NYT reports the good news, albeit without mentioning Trump.
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Good economic policies begat a good economy.
Generally, he’s doing a great job on everything but immigration, there he is a total failure.
But what’s the alternative?
...albeit without mentioning Trump.
Almost superfluous information.
But that's what you get when the press is more corrupt than the government.
Sure would be nice if Trump had some help with this immigration business, but he does not. Democrats? They'll do whatever to make sure that this unbearable onslaught continues. The GOPe? Same there as well.
Without yet getting rid of the 29/49 caps of hours and employees that obamacare lays on the business economy.
this is the sort of Crap! that we can expect from THAT DAMN TRUMP!
More jobs, means MORE CO2!
Only Worldwide poverty, brought to us by the Democratic party, can save the world!
We NEED a world that no one wants to live in, or; WE WILL ALL DIE BY THE TIME WE'RE 100 (or so)
That's nice, but he can't pronounce origins correctly.
That's nice, but he can't pronounce origins correctly.
I hear he can pronounce "corpsman" though.
Unexpectedly!
I hear he can pronounce "corpsman" though.
Nor does he need just one real, simple number that's easy to remember when referring to the whole Union of States.
Labor force participation is increasing but it has a long way to go, still, before it returns to the levels of twenty years ago. Especially in the case of adult males and youths.
I get that the US is probably hitting structural limits in employment as employers are having a difficult time hiring, at this point. This is the result of decades of degeneration of the native labor force, which will not turn around quickly.
The unemployment rate has been a questionable figure from the beginning, useful only for short-term comparisons, and very inappropriate even to being deliberately misleading for most purposes, in a declining labor market. And it is completely irrelevant in long-term analysis.
Take youth employment. Too many teens-20's people are out of the habit of working. Too many live on student loans, which will haunt them later. That is one of the structural barriers to truly full employment.
Orange Man Bad.
I hate to think how bad these numbers would be had Hillary won. It's even worse to think how bad these numbers will get if the Democrats ever get control of the Presidency and Congress again. The group of Democrat clowns thinking they can be President and the policies they are pushing could put us very quickly into an economic downturn.
Oh, the winning...
Look, we all know that only Dem presidents do anything good for the economy.
If the Republicans had managed to retain their majority in the House and by some miracle enough of them had come together to pass an immigration reform bill, would not that just have made more U.S. laws for the Democrats to refuse to abide by?
It seems that the Administration does not even contemplate the possibility of getting the Democrats to cooperate in enforcing U.S. law, so Trump is moving to see what he can do about getting some help from the Mexican government.
Tank said...
Generally, he’s doing a great job on everything but immigration, there he is a total failure.
But what’s the alternative?
You have to admit he's sailing against a considerable headwind.
Why are economists totally political?
Steve Leisman and Austin Goolsby on CNBC are total left wing hacks.
PS, nobody mentioned Trump there either.
I get that the US is probably hitting structural limits in employment as employers are having a difficult time hiring, at this point. This is the result of decades of degeneration of the native labor force, which will not turn around quickly.
We have got to start on education soon. There was an interesting piece (can't find it now) about a man having a conversation with two leftist school teachers who went on about the usual pieties but, when they got to schools and children, they were adamant that something has to be done about discipline, They were just following Conquest's law the everyone is conservative about what he knows best,
Trump is moving to see what he can do about getting some help from the Mexican government.
Vincente Fox was seen at the Austin meeting of Soros and similar lefty Democrat moneybags,
What a disappointment Fox has been.
The NYT reports the good news, albeit without mentioning Trump.
I am totally gobsmacked.
What's the unemployment rate in South Bend?
Communist countries had very traditional educational systems. Political ideoligy, as such, had little effect on the techniques of education. Even the substance of education remained much like the pre-revolutionary sort, with the addition of "religious studies" of the official ideology of course.
The American educational systems ideologies and the practices they impose are sui generis, born out of particular American political issues, though these are beginning to infect the rest of the world, often with absurd results. And these American ideologies infect everything, not just "religious studies".
It's just right. It shows stability without weakness or overheating.
I've hired about 70 people in the last year, and let half of them go, which is better than normal. It's usually about 1 out of 3 that really want to work. Almost all of my new hires are unskilled young people who we train to weld, run CNC machinery, etc. The young women are working out exceptionally well. Half my laser operators are young women, half my welders too, and nearly all my CNC mill operators are women under 25. Five out of seven managers are women, and four out of six floor supervisor are of the fairer sex. I didn't really notice this until after it happened, but visitors to our locations are really surprised to see all these young women welding, cutting metal, and getting right in there with the dirt and noise. They seem to love it.
Bagoh,
No black trans women? Racist!
The NYT reports the good news, albeit without mentioning Trump.
But when there is bad news, they'll mention him twice.
Thus maintaining news room balance.
The Slimes is a left-wing loon rag published for left-wing loons.
Here are a few facts which the MSM will NEVER highlight:
Trump has created over 400,000 manufacturing jobs in 2 years, where Obama LOST 219,000 (Maybe that is why he said those jobs were never coming back)
African-Americans and Hispanics are enjoying their lowest unemployment rates EVAH
Consumer Confidence is at a 50 year high
Unemployment claims are at a 50 year low.
Wage gains are the highest since 2007
But in lefty-world we are supposed to exchange that success so we can be mendicants of the state and vote Dem. The Dem Party is built around abortion on demand, fudgepackerism, and open borders. That's appealing
Labor force participation is increasing but it has a long way to go, still, before it returns to the levels of twenty years ago. Especially in the case of adult males and youths.
There's a school of thought what believes it may never return to our previous higher levels and the causes have more to do with a combination of the changes in the nature of work, the social choices of individuals, government welfare policies and the affluence of American society.
Perhaps a correct application of the previously debunked term, 'The New Normal' cold apply.
Didn't I just read an article in the Times or WaPo that this was Trump's economy now? I think they must have been hoping for worse numbers. I'm sure Trump's name would have been mentioned if the economy was failing.
The wish casting is so obvious that it's embarrassing.
The "New Normal" itself is likely to be an adjustment to past labor market conditions.
The "New Normal" is not likely to be "normal", as in optimal.
"No black trans women? Racist!"
No tranys as far as I can tell, but we have hired every black kid that walks in. All but one are still here. We generally hire everybody who applies, unless they start out by asking when they get a vacation. I have no faith in screening for the kind of people I need, which is just good work work ethic, good attitude, and desire to learn. You can't really see that in advance, and part of our mission is to train the untrained, so resumes are not very useful.
" I'm sure Trump's name would have been mentioned if the economy was failing. "
There is absolutely no doubt about that.
Limited blogger said... What's the unemployment rate in South Bend?
higher than in Elkhart, a LOT higher than Sheboygan
City, State January 2019 Rate Change Unemployed Change
Elkhart, IN 3.3% 0.4% 3,873 476
South Bend, IN 3.8% -0.1% 6,112 -164
Sheboygan, WI 2.4% 0.0% 1,532 -6
https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/metros/
Believe it or not Trump is not responsible for everything--even the rise and fall of the stock market.
The economy is entirely the result of the optimism, investment, and work of the American people. What Trump IS responsible for is giving people reason to be optimistic that their government is not against them, not waiting to steal their investment, and respects our work. The American economy? Yea, we built that. It's what we do when you let us.
The February number was anomalously low, you should ALWAYS look at the 3-month average with any govt economic statistics.
Seated next to a Democrat liberal at a charity dinner last night. After normal commentary (non-political)she asked, "Are you a Trumpster?" I answered "yes". She said he's terrible. I responded "the economy is going very well, employment is at record levels especially blacks and hispanics." She then came unglued almost with blood in her eyes/voice and said "He is terrible for blacks and hispanics". I changed subject.
One has to go deeper in stats in order to penetrate the headlines.
St. Louis Fed (data from BLM), labor force participation men 25-54
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25MAUSM156S
Make of it what you will. The Obama recovery wasn't, in labor terms, until perhaps spring of 2016. The last two years have seen a stronger, or at least more sustained, recovery trend here than any prior to 1980. TBD how long it lasts.
Also interesting - Labor force participation ages 16-19
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300012
You can see the increase in, probably, young women getting formal employment and being counted from 1965 on. The fall in labor force participation from 1950-65 is probably due to larger proportions in higher education.
She then came unglued almost with blood in her eyes/voice and said "He is terrible for blacks and hispanics". I changed subject.
Did she look like this ?
Buwaya
Rule of thumb on employment stats. Double in bad times 1.5X in good ones.
Blogger roesch/voltaire said...
Believe it or not Trump is not responsible for everything--even the rise and fall of the stock market.
It was Obama who stopped the seas rising.
When Trump was elected "genius" Paul Krugman said the markets would NEVER recover. Why hasn't the Slimes gotten rid of him?
Believe it or not Trump is not responsible for everything--even the rise and fall of the stock market.
No. But if the economy - and/or the stock market - was tanking, guess who you'd be blaming?
"Are you a Trumpster?"
"Why is that any of your business?" - is the proper response.
FUNQ is also allowable.
Rusty said...
Tank said...
Generally, he’s doing a great job on everything but immigration, there he is a total failure.
But what’s the alternative?
You have to admit he's sailing against a considerable headwind
Of course, but he doesn’t have to say we need lots more legal immigration, we don’t. Nor does he have to increase HB-1 visas, which he did.
"Believe it or not Trump is not responsible for everything--even the rise and fall of the stock market."
Yet Mr. Obama is personally responsible for the lowering of mean sea level in the 57 states. He was the warmest, kindest, most wonderful human being I ever knew.
NYT playbook:
1. If bad economic news, blame Trump.
2. If good economic news, ignore Trump.
Buwaya versus Tank: can we have a discussion of whether some legal foreign labor is appropriate to bring in at this time?
One way to manage avoid overheating the economy is to raise interest rates. However, that in our circumstances is death. If we can avoid inflation by buffering labor availability and costs with some temporary workers in spots where they're needed, where the skills are lacking, while workers are being retrained, coming back from retirement or discouragement, educations improving, is that necessarily wrong?
Wages are up. That's not an absolute free good. Wages going up too much is a problem. We are bumping up against nairu.
As for promises, I seem to remember the President, then-candidate Trump, talking about wide gates in those high walls. No?
Discuss?
"If we can avoid inflation " Don't print money. A growing economy won't cause inflation. Markets always find a way to absorb excess cash and excess cash is good for the economy. Borrowing money won't cause inflation either. Neither will lending at low interest.
And my IRA is up!!! MAGA!!! And being 64 I can cash it in ANYTIME but I don't cause I just don't need to! MAGA (but I repeat myself!)
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