"The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate/A detailed look at the voters with the numbers to decide the 2020 Democratic nominee."

The NYT delves into something that shouldn't surprise anyone: The noisiest people are atypical.

The outspoken group of Democratic-leaning voters on social media is outnumbered, roughly 2 to 1, by the more moderate, more diverse and less educated group of Democrats who typically don’t post political content online, according to data from the Hidden Tribes Project. This latter group has the numbers to decide the Democratic presidential nomination in favor of a relatively moderate establishment favorite, as it has often done in the past.

If you look only at Democrats who don't "post political content to social media sites," you find 53% of them say they are "moderate or conservative" and 70% say "political correctness" is a problem.

There are also more than twice as many black people in this group — 24%, as opposed to 11% in the group that posts political content. And that's according to the Hidden Tribes Project. The NYT did its own "informal poll of Democrats on one of our Twitter accounts," and only 2% were black.

These people who are less active on social media are also — as the NYT puts it — "under-represented in the well-educated, urban enclaves where journalists roam" and "under-represented in the Northern blue states and districts where most Democratic politicians win elections."

Less engaged and less ideological voters tend to be cynical about politics. One might think cynicism would translate to support for outsider candidates, and it probably could against an establishment favorite with enough flaws. Instead, it has more often meant skepticism of ambitious, idealistic, pie-in-the-sky liberals and progressives who offer big promises with no record. It has meant an appreciation for well-known, battle-tested politicians who have been on their side or even delivered in the past.... 

Subtext: You hot-headed NYT readers better wake up and smell the hair of Joe Biden. 

ADDED: The article linked above went up at the NYT yesterday. Today, the theme continues, with "How Radical Is Too Radical for 2020 Democrats?/Or is that question beside the point in the Trump era?" a column by Thomas Edsall. Democratic Party candidates are embracing the Green New Deal and slavery reparations, which might work in the primaries but prove deadly in the general election. Edsall ends inconclusively:

Three years ago, Trump threw out conventional wisdom and went on to win the nomination and the presidency. Maybe, this time around, Democrats can gamble successfully on a similar strategy and win. Or maybe not.