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९३ टिप्पण्या:
Interesting choice of y-axis to maximize the spread between the two, when the spread really isn't very big.
Suddenly, The Donald is on the attack. And the opposition Media is stunned.
One of the very few areas where there is something resembling a bipartisan consensus is solving the illegal immigration issue. However roughly done, he has made the point that this is something which needs to be done, and that blind opposition has required using legal, constitutional means which really shouldn't be necessary.
FDR did something like this to get aid to Britain. Neither were good for the country, but both were necessary.
So death cross?
Looks around for reaction...too premature
No death cross...yet.
What's not to like?
Get a few more late night comedians throwing shit (not turds) at Trump
Luckily for Trump he will face a specific opponent and not Other.
The economy is doing well, the deficits are high, and there is no Wall. His argument against his opponent is they want to ruin the economy.
There's only one poll that counts. Sorry, Hillary.
Trump's approval is almost certain to go up when the "no-collusion" Mueller report is released. CNN & other media is already preparing Dems for the lack of evidence.
Those who do NOT want Open Borders will most likely have to support Trump and Reps, because being against the Wall will be, essentially, for Open Borders.
@Roy, sorry because why?
The GOP and Son In Law are against The Wall. Trump didn’t have the focus to get the Wall done. He went along with Mitch, Paul, and Son in Law. Spent time on the Kim and Kanye Sentencing Reform Act instead.
The Wall is theater. Trump can’t get it done. Didn’t have the discipline.
MadisonMan
Old trick. Used to make weather (climate) predictions either drastic or benign.
McConnell is against the Wall. So was Ryan.
Trump ran against the GOP establishment but has just signed whatever they put in front of him and appointed their friends and family to positions.
He also let Son In Law push the Kanye and Kim Sentencing Reform Act.
But he’s not started any new wars like W. And he’s been semi-tough on China. And the economy is good.
So Trump will have a few accomplishments to run on as he pretends he didn’t spend run up the debt like W and Obama and is useless against illegal immigration like Reagan through Obama.
And he’ll have done good one-liners against Bernie it Kamala or whoever. Should be a fun election.
Sessions was the most anti amnesty senator, I admit Tillerson was a bridge attempt to the establishment, Pompeo was good at the company now at state,
Sessions was lazy. The highest profile DOJ case under him was the college basketball investigation. Rick Pittino lost his coaching job. Like Ashcroft and steroids in baseball. Worthless investigations.
Pompeo is energetic. He flies around a lot. He might accomplish something. So far though he’s just obtained some mild assurances from China and North Korea. Those are worthless. China and North Korea probably will just wait out the administration and deal with the next one. That would be the smart play.
I think that BHO's numbers looked about like this at this point in his first term. Things perked up as the election approached.
The new winds blowing in The President's favor seem to be a mirror image of the views coming out in Chicago PD Chief's news conference of the shamefulness and despicableness of "Celebrities" with wall to wall MSM news coverage staging horrible crimes that never happened.
The attacking Trump has them on the run.
So who would you have picked as atty general, who could get confirmed by the possums.
Blogger MadisonMan said...
Interesting choice of y-axis to maximize the spread between the two, when the spread really isn't very big
Funny, that.
IIRC Obama didn't cross into positive territory until the final year of his second term. That's because everyone was glad to see him go and were feeling gracious.
Would you have gone to war In North Korea, which would have gone nuclear, would you take that chance?
mccullough at 9:42 AM
Sessions was lazy. The highest profile DOJ case under him was the college basketball investigation.
You are failing to give Sessions credit for supervising the persecution of a Russian young woman who was socializing with supporters of the National Rifle Association while studying political science at a US university.
Well that was grand persecutor muellers doing, wasnt it, he couldn't cross the tripwire.
I’d appoint the governor of Texas as Attorney General. If he didn’t want it, I’d leave the position open.
I would not nominate or appoint some swamp creature like Barr. He was useless attorney general the first time around. Mitch likes him and sold him to Son In Law as a confirmable pick. So Son In Law made it happen.
Trump is a salesman but not into details or operations. Son In Law is into details and operations. And he knows how to snow Trump.
Blogger MadisonMan said...
"Interesting choice of y-axis to maximize the spread between the two, when the spread really isn't very big"
No that's a normal presentation of of a narrow range of data. Making the Y-axis the full 0 to 100% range would mean the actual data only covered about 10% of the chart and would have somewhat obscured the point-to-point trends without adding any other information. If the author had not prominently displayed the Y-Axis data division points, you might have a point. He did.
The major issue in the 2020 Presidential election will be immigration policy.
That is why Trump will be re-elected.
narciso at 10:02 AM
Well that was grand persecutor muellers doing, wasnt it, he couldn't cross the tripwire.
If you are referring to the Russian woman who was studying political science in the USA and associating with NRA supporters, she was persecuted by Jeff Sessions' Department of Justice, not by Robert "The FBI Whitewasher" Mueller.
So tell me who you would nominate, Whitaker was pretty good but they buried him in quick lime.
Trump's popularity/unpopularity fluctuates within a narrow band and seems to have a hard ceiling and floor, unlike previous Presidents. Just when we're certain that will never change, he'll denuclearize North Korea, win the Nobel Prize, and become wildly popular -- but sadly his popularity will revert to the mean when he tweets something lewd about Ivanka.
I view polls as "soft data," meaning a rough snapshot with a high margin of error, subject to swing gradually or abruptly
So, I don't rely too much about them or hate on them either.
In my view, Trump already has solidified Florida & Ohio. So he starts with 260 EV, needing 1 more state to win (Wisc, Mich, Penn or Minn).
Virginia may flip too - due to moonwalking, Michael Jackson impersonator as Governor.
mccullough: "Sessions was lazy."
Sessions was compromised.
No other explanation satisfies Occam's razor.
Trump rating numbers never rise much for 2 reasons:
1) He's under constant media assault 24/7. He's been getting 90% Negative coverage from the MSM. This hurts him with low-information voters who usually like a President if the economy is good and we're at peace.
2) The number of "yellow dog" Democrats is large and getting larger by the year. These people vote based on their racial/ethnic/sexual identity. There's nothing ANY republican president could do to win their approval - except resign.
Virginia is Maryland now. It won’t vote GOP again. It’s dependent on federal spending and victim politics. Highly paid lawyers, lobbyists and consultants who believe they will be spared from the Social Justice Warriors.
Virginia is as blue as Illinois now.
When the country crashes, they will be the ones hardest hit. So there is something to look forward to.
Many Trump supporters don’t do polls.
Plus the over / under sampling of groups to get the desired results.
What is actually significant is the trend.
the persecution of a Russian young woman who was socializing with supporters of the National Rifle Association while studying political science at a US university.
The New Republic has a good article on her.
It all comes down to who Trump’s opponent is. He has a good chance of being re-elected if the Dems nominate another woman.
I don't know what Sessions problem was, but he abdicated his responsibilities, first by recusing himself and then supporting his turncoat DAG. We're had more focus on the DoJ than any administration since Nixon and yet Sessions was AWOL with the public. Did anyone even notice when he left? Things didn't seem to change much.
Even now, he refuses to discuss anything. He was a disaster.
Imagine if the press, just for the sake of a little variety, reported on the arguments for his positions and let people make up their own minds. But the Washington Post is convinced that they can kill democracy by keeping Americans in the dark.
Bay Area Guy: "In my view, Trump already has solidified Florida & Ohio. So he starts with 260 EV, needing 1 more state to win (Wisc, Mich, Penn or Minn)."
I think we are going to see 200%, 300%, 400% turnout numbers out of solidly blue precincts in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Minneapolis that are going to be democrat by 99.97% democrat to .03% republican.
And it won't matter how those votes got there.......
Franken "Trunk votes" by the millions.
And once the dems/LLR's get back in power, they are now fully exposed as what they really are, so prepare yourself for the full open borders/lefty insanity "Monty".
The thing that people forget about these approval/disapproval polls is the balance of disapproval. I warned people about this when they got excited about Obama's disapproval numbers. It's divided a couple of ways:
- People who think the President is going too far with his policies
- People who don't think he is doing enough with his policies
The people who didn't think Obama was doing enough to get us to his socialist future were not going to vote for Romney. The people who don't think Trump is doing enough to reign in big government and stop the flow of illegal aliens are not going to vote for whichever radical progressive that runs against him.
This whole Mueller investigation was insane. No other AG would've allowed his President to investigated for almost 2 years by a Special prosecutor who was given a blank check and almost no oversight.
I don't see any significance in those numbers. The President's approval rating has been jittering in the 40-44% range since January 2018. We've seen two- and three-point shifts before, after which his approval goes on jittering in the same range.
What would be significant is if his approval climbed above 45 and stayed there, or his disapproval decreased to 50 or below.
rcocean: "I don't know what Sessions problem was, but he abdicated his responsibilities, first by recusing himself and then supporting his turncoat DAG."
Actually, you do.
Sessions was the earliest established pol on the Trump bandwagon, and then, suddenly, out of the blue, went utterly, completely AWOL.
I mean like Bowe Bergdahl/LLR-approved AWOL.
Not just that, his disappearance coincided with specific, public, displays of full support for the Rosenstein and the entire Frame-up crew.
Sorry, that's not even a 180. That's literally dragging in another dimension or two to spin around in.
Compromised.
And now he has just disappeared........as if he were never there......
Remember when Wikileaks showed the Democrats telling them which counties to sample in order to get the most pro-Hillary results while keeping it invisible in the “internals”? Of course they drop this nonsense as the election approaches because even pollsters aren’t stupid enough to eat the seed corn by cheating when an actual measurement (election) is about to take place.
Virginia may flip too - due to moonwalking, Michael Jackson impersonator as Governor.
It might, but more because of Attorney General Mark Herring who has been burning through state money to file nuisance lawsuits against the Trump administration. His office has done nothing to clean up MS-13, nor done anything else to benefit the citizens of this state.
I often wonder how accurate these polls are anyway. We can trust the election polls because we have election results to check them against. OTOH, how can you check the accuracy of a "Do you approve of the President?". You could get 80% approval or disapproval just by sampling the right people. Too many blacks/Democrats/liberals in the sample and you'd get a wildly inflated "disapprove" number.
Also, I wonder what the approval rating would be if you took NY and Calf Out of the sample.
Well they targeted ashcroft till he ended up in the hospital then they created this narrative re the hospital bed against Gonzalez, by the usual suspects who are sti around 15 years later.
According to Democrats, we wouldn’t know about that manipulation in support of Hillary if it weren’t for Putin, but I have yet to see the first shred of evidence that is based on anything but the opinion of people who have shown themselves to be highly partisan that it was anything other than a leak or a simple phishing attack that anybody could have done anywhere.
Donna Brazille’s book lays out a lot of reasons people might have leaked Democrat emails. In case anybody hasn’t noticed, there’s a war on in the Democrat Party right now. And half the party really wanted to drive a wooden stake through Hillary’s now almost imperceptibly beating political heart.
Electorally, it doesn't matter whether 51% or 90% of California votes against Trump. You lose all 55 votes once your D opponent get 50.1%
The only thing that matters is whether the swing states are liking Trump.
Unskew the polls!
rcocean: "The only thing that matters is whether the swing states are liking Trump."
The only thing that matters is who is counting the votes in what will be the astonishingly high over-performing democrat strongholds in key cities in swing states with lefty Secretaries of State.
Yes the only thing that was real was the leaked emails, had the dems been creative, they could have pinned the seth rich hit on the Russian in bruges team, but they only appeared two years later, and they don't actually hit their targets.
Getting back to Sessions, he's no babe in the woods. He's been a Senator since 1997 - all of it on the Judiciary Committee. So he must have known that Comey/McCabe couldn't be trusted. Maybe part of the problem is that he never was an Executive and didn't know how to manage people and deal with the press.
That would be Mueller fitz Comey goldsmith baker and co.
"The only thing that matters is who is counting the votes in what will be the astonishingly high over-performing democrat strongholds in key cities in swing states with lefty Secretaries of State."
IRC, Trump wanted to do something about that in 2017, but McConnell and Ryan were uninterested.
Well he was the us atty in Alabama where he went after the Klan, and was slimed regardless by a low down conman
The lines on this poll graphic are remarkably similar to the tails on the Professor's rats.
Coincidence?
@mccullough, Trump will build the Wall because that’s what the people who voted for him want him to do.
Yes they sabotaged kobachs investigation from the get go, it tells you he was over the target.
If you go to the link Trump looks damned good compared to the Congress critters: Pelosi, Schumer et al.
rcocean makes a good point. Massive wins in NY and CA don't translate into more electoral votes, but are undoubtedly in the approval numbers. Bookies now have Trump as the clear favorite to win in 2020 at 3/2 versus Kamela at 8/1.
Sessions is lazy and not bright. He should have resigned instead of recusing himself.
But he wanted the title of Attorney General.
It was funny to watch Trump berate him on Twitter. What a spineless moron he is. No self respect.
Trump also looks super good versus European leaders.
If you click through to the link you can see the trend for Trump's entire Presidency, and note that he is currently pushing up against the ceiling established in the first few weeks of 2017. When he breaks through that, even by a couple points, it will be actual news.
The first big mistake was getting rid of general Flynn, trump should have told pence, I gave him the ok, stop rustling feathers.
And that’s with 2 years of non stop smears innuendos and bashing.
He’s even popular with the world deplorables.
The democrats are desperate to dismantle The Constitution before the election - so we can only use vote totals from major metro areas and NY and CA to find the winner.
Polls show Trump losing to the unnamed generic Democrat, which is a fair description of Amy Klobuchar.
@Drago sez:
"I think we are going to see 200%, 300%, 400% turnout numbers out of solidly blue precincts in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Minneapolis that are going to be democrat by 99.97% democrat to .03% republican."
Don't be pessimistic! But, yeah, the Dem inner city shenanigans will be supercharged. Blacks definitely like Trump a heluva lot better than your average GOP candidate, so hopefully they'll be some countervailing measures taken.
We shall see. Close election either way -- as long as the economy stays good.
Magic 8-Ball says, Signs Point to Yes for a Trump win in 2020.
I remember the good old days when Mitt Romney was our candidate and only 47% hated us.
Bettors are giving Republicans a 40% chance to win in 2020, that’s better than Trump’s chances were for 2016.
democrats are desperate to dismantle The Constitution before the election
Gerrymandered votes through process and immigration reform.
Diversity (or color judgment) a.k.a. "identity" politics including racism, sexism, genderism, classism, etc.
Planned parenthood/selective-child/recycled or cannibalized-child under the Twilight Amendment, which ignores due process and justifies cruel and unusual punishment.
The Constitution hangs on a judicial whim. That said, be wary of overlapping and converging interests.
Blogger narciso said...
The first big mistake was getting rid of general Flynn, trump should have told pence, I gave him the ok, stop rustling feathers.
I still don't understand that whole story. I understand that Flynn was bankrupt but it is still a mystery why Mueller went after him.
There is a story that Flynn was targeted by McCabe,.
Blacks definitely like Trump a heluva lot better than your average GOP candidate
Blacks, Whites, Browns, Yellows, and Oranges are colorful by Nature, and Person by rights. One day, we will escape this long-running legacy of diversity.
@Chuck,
"I remember the good old days when Mitt Romney was our candidate and only 47% hated us"
Funny! Nice quip. But the problem was Romney got trounced 51-47, after letting CNN's Candy Crowley punk him in that crucial 2nd debate with Obama.
So, many "conservatives" began to ask themselves, is it better to lose with a polished guy who doesn't fight (Romney), or to win with a wildman who does fight (Trump)?
I think, objectively, the results are in. Most sane folks have chosen the latter.
You can disapprove of a president in two different ways- he is either too Republican or not Republican enough (same for a Democrat president). However, those two camps will vote opposite of one another.
Flynn was gone after because Obama considered him a turncoat. It was straight up political revenge.
I have written it before- Jeff Sessions' problem was that he was an old man. How many 70 year olds do you consider to be go-getters? I have the same worry about the new AG- that he just won't have the stamina to deal with the DoJ.
GRW3 wrote:
"The thing that people forget about these approval/disapproval polls is the balance of disapproval. I warned people about this when they got excited about Obama's disapproval numbers. It's divided a couple of ways:
- People who think the President is going too far with his policies
- People who don't think he is doing enough with his policies"
Exactly!
Flynn was gone after because Obama considered him a turncoat.
That's why he fired him from NSA. The McCabe version is that Flynn supported a female FBI agent who accused McCabe of sexual harassment.
Imagine if the first lady got better coverage than a mob moll.
He kept noticing 'dead' alqueda kept popping up in north Africa and syria.
I remember the good old days when Mitt Romney was our candidate and only 47% hated us.
I'm so old, i remember the days when folks like Bob Dole were our candidates; and hardly Anyone hated us: of course, that was because (like Mitt Romney) they knew that they were No Threat. Why hate a sacrificial lamb?
Lifelong "Eddie Haskell" Republican Chuck: "I remember the good old days when Mitt Romney was our candidate and only 47% hated us."
Romney was smeared continuously (sound familiar?)
Romney surrendered, live on TV, in front of a global audience, to Candy Crowley and obambi
Romney lost bigly
Basically, a LLR Chuck dream scenario.
So, what we have here is the following:
LLR Chuck longs for the days of 2012 when the republican candidate didn't come close to beating the democrat...
and
....LLR Chuck considers 2016, a year when the Republicans swept the House, Senate and White House along with the Supreme Court appointments a literal.....(wait for it, wait for it).....
....."Disaster".
Michael K.
>I still don't understand that whole story. I understand that Flynn was bankrupt but it
> is still a mystery why Mueller went after him.
1. Opportunity - He was a useful tool to use against Trump for the Russian Smear. Deep state was looking for anything, and Flynn by taking a vacation with little communication access, was an easier target to be smeared.
2. Chicago Way - Flynn disrupted the Obama Narrative, and was seen as a traitor by the Obama Administration
3. Revenge by the FBI / McCabe against supporting a sexual harassment issue.
4. Useful indictment against a Trump person by Mueller. With the amount of resources that Mueller has thrown against Trump associates, I'm surprised at how little results he has gotten. Mueller had to threat Flynn's son, to get Flynn to cop a deal. And bankrupt him with court costs. It's a Deep Shame on the GOP for not helping with the legal fees. What a contrast to what the Democrats do, Aswan Brothers, probably super guilty, but have high priced Lawyers defending them. I guess this way the GOP keeps their Perceived Virtue.
well Mueller's firm has ties to Qatar and deutsch bank, the former through an arrangement with the Barclay brothers, so its kind of awkward, the former were in the lead in north Africa, and the levant, and had leveraged the support of the salafis in Europe, they have taken the lead in controlling the Turkish military industry, which is quite an accomplishment for a tiny emirate, and seeing as the regional headquarters for centcom, they probably think they can't be directly challenged,
Michael K: "> is still a mystery why Mueller went after him"
McCabe was the direct target of a lawsuit by a gal and Gen Flynn supported the woman in her charges against McCabe.
So, you know. No bias or anything with McCabe targeting Flynn. No reason to hand the case off to someone else.
Nope.
Just as obama's self-described "wingman" Holder never recused. Nor Lynch.
Because they know the dems/left/MSM/LLR's will always have their backs.
But only always.
I see Clapper has already tipped his hand on the next leg of the Mueller report "Oh sure there is no conclusive proof or evidence that Trump or an associate was not working with the Russians...we may never know..." Likes it's a god dman Episode of "In Search Of" with Leonard Nimoy after they couldn't find the Loch Ness Monster. That leave the field wide open for Schift to keep opening investigations because "we can't be sure and this is too important to leave as an open question" Shit birds, the whole lot of them.
Clapper knows Mueller found nothing because Clapper knows he made it all up to sabotage Trump.
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