२३ ऑक्टोबर, २०१८
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१४३ टिप्पण्या:
You can talk talk talk talk bicker bicker bicker
You can talk all you wanna but it's different than it was
No it ain't no it ain't
But you gotta know the territory.
Okay, who’s playing Mega Millions?
My wife did. First lottery ticket she ever bought.
Just got back from the supermarket. The lines were insane.
If a single winner, odds at 308,000,000 to 1, a ticket price of $2, and a cash payout of $904,000,000 after taxes...
It is economically rational to buy a ticket as the expected payout exceeds the cost.
904/308 > 2
The weather in Boston delayed my return from NJ by a couple of hours. Didn't delay the start of WS Game 1. Here we go!
-sw
Lottery tickets are not available in Las Vegas, so you have to go to California or Arizona to buy them. Luckily, we're at the pointy end of Nevada so it's not that far. There are huge lines at Primm, Ca, right over the border.
When I hear the word caravan the pictures that come to mind is of the "Silk Roads" in Asia or Arab traders on their way to Timbuktu in Africa. And then, of course, caravan is the Brits' term for an automotive trailer for some reason best known to them.
But who came up with "caravan" for the herd of human migrants rounded up and sent on their path north to the Promised Land?
I listened to a little of Obama's speech at his mini-rally. He hasn't learned a thing. The same pompous, pretentious twaddle.
If somebody has to win the World Series, I guess I prefer either the Brooklyn Dodgers or the Boston Braves.
Birk,
It doesn't work like that. Yur math indicates it's a sure thing to turn two bucks into more than two bucks. If that's what happened, you'd want to empty yur entire savings into this deal.
Anywho, I've never bought any of these tickets for myself (in the past I did buy them for a grandmother, cause she asked me to). Regardless of my net, i.e. incl when it was wee, I always looked at these things as an opportunity to consider the money I didn't spend as my winnings. So I just won $2.
Jamal Khashoggi is always referred to as "a journalist" or "the Washington Post correspondent," etc., though these activities, loathsome as they might be, are not what led to him being killed.
@Birkel
You have to factor in the high volume of lottery tickets sold for drawings this size that bring a lot of media attention which increases the likelihood of a split pot, thus the expected return is still probably not worth the $2 ticket price.
PB&J,
When I say assume one winner and expected payout, you look stupid arguing with me.
Just so you know, those are known as assumptions.
If you disagree with the assumptions (maybe nobody wins) then we are just talking past one another.
Two winners is another possibility.
So the EV is halved.
But with either one or two winners, the EV is greater than $2.
Dumb ass.
actual items,
Same response as above.
"If a single winner..."
Reading is FUNdamental.
I bought a ticket. Statistically, I've already won!
It's not bad -- for $2 you get to dream of being foolishly rich. Are those dreams worth $2? YMMV.
”It is economically rational to buy a ticket as the ... [it matters not how this sentence was finished]”
Ahh, no.
Original Mike,
What is the value of a good daydream?
Come at the problem from a different perspective:
Is there some payout amount that would make buying a ticket a net positive EV?
Work backward from there.
Birk,
I'm not saying a thing about the expected payout or the number of winners.
Sorry you don't understand that.
”What is the value of a good daydream?”
I have no problem with that. I’ve bought a couple of these things over the years when the payout has run up.
I got the horse right here
PB&J,
Then it was odd you started your comment with what I believe is your shorthand for my handle.
If you're not addressing what I typed, then yours is an odd approach.
Assume a can opener.
I always admired that guy who used to sleep it off in his new Cadillac in front of the strip club. He knew how to acclimatize sudden wealth into his life.
Original Mike,
It is ok to disagree with the assumptions I proposed.
But under the conditions I set...
Birk,
Unless you delete your comments here, we all see the truth.
You look worse the more you pretend you weren't wrong.
IMHO.
Okay, who’s playing Mega Millions?
Who wants their stupidity taxed??
It is not a caravan.
It is a MOBILE MOB!
Saw that on Twitter today and thought it was appropriate.
Okay, who’s playing Mega Millions?
I refuse to buy lottery tickets, but my fiancé picked some up.
I have surgery tomorrow. Hoping that it is a lucky week on both counts.
If I win, I will get off Medicare.
PB&J
Assume one winner and a single ticket...
I wrote that directly in my first comment...
Economics professor:
Assume perfect information and no transaction costs...
Boy, I guess all those economists are morons.
Good luck with the surgery, Francisco D.
I bought a MegaMillions ticket. A slim chance is still better than no chance and for a little while, I can hope.
BTW Birk,
Assuming yur not capable of understanding what I and OM are saying.
Even by yur own massively flawed math, it doesn't make sense.
Your own formula says yur wrong, if you fix the units.
$/(odds*0.5$) is more than two$
Sheesh.
He was a fellow traveler with the ilkwan, that's why John brennan comes to his defense, he was station chief then head of the fusion unit when khashoggi worked with the foreign ministry
should be $/(odds for 2$)
Sheesh on me.
Payout 904
Odds 308
Cost 2
Math is hard, PB&J.
I bought a ticket for a friend from the last one. I think she expected to win. I think it makes sense to buy a couple as long as you would not actually miss the money. Biggest pot I ever won in poker was drawing to an inside straight, but there were a couple of previous hands in the pot because some rule I can't remember kept anyone from winning them.
And FTR I do know that that is a ridiculous way to evaluate a lottery.
I'm just playing at this level for Birk.
904/(308*2) > 1
Try again, PB&J.
Birk,
The two dollar cost is the thing that halves your lame and very wrong evaluation system. Even if we ignore how this is such an awful method.
Birkel
1. Your math is correct. The term is “expected value”. Now whether the economics say “buy” depends on the slope of one's utility curve. But that does not affect your math.
2. It is plain stupid to expect mathematical literacy from de Sitter, despite his having chosen a name from a mathematical model. He's a fool and he is never honest, so even if he understands it he will pretend otherwise.
Cheers!
”It is ok to disagree with the assumptions I proposed.
But under the conditions I set...”
But you calculated that it was rational.
That's what I'm saying Birk,
It cut it in half!
You have to figure the odds of multiple winners and that means you probably shouldn't pick your numbers, since a collision is more likely. If you insist on picking your own numbers, then adjust the payout accordingly.
tim in vermont,
Biggest pot I ever lost was for ~$2500.
Had 91% odds in my favor when the money went in (top two pair versus bottom two pair on the flop).
Guy said "I had two pair and I couldn't fold. What could I do?"
I said: "Lose 91% of the time."
Biggest pot I ever dragged was a lot bigger, thankfully.
A $5 entry in the Meade cup buys you a chance to win $100.
If there is 1 ticket sold, and the winner drawn from the sold tickets it makes sense to buy. If there are 19 tickets sold it is profitable in expectation to buy. If there are 21 tickets sold it is unprofitable in expectation. It might be fun anyway.
PB&J,
I will make this easy for you.
If no other buyers, one could buy 308 million tickets at $2 each.
Cost: $616 million.
Payout: $904 million.
(Forget all the smaller payouts - assumption alert!)
With only one winner (assumption alert for the impaired) buying a ticket is reasonable.
OM,
He's gotta know he made an error.
He's just continuing it to be stubborn.
I tried it too. I don't see the appeal.
See OM,
Now he's all into what the meaning of 'reasonable' is.
He knows he was wrong.
Birkel
But what were his pot odds?
A book I recommend is The Theory of Poker by Slansky. I don’t play poker, but I do math. Fascinating book.
Trump's Brilliant Idea re L'Affaire Khashoggi.
Another assumption:
No opportunity cost for buying and cashing all those 308 million combinations.
Assumptions are tricky, PB&J.
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html
Birkel
See dS at 850. Dishonest, right? Just like I predicted.
Ken B,
I shoved about $750 into a pot of about $1000 so his pot odds were 30% on a 9% hand with a possible straight on the board plus I had a re-draw to a better full house.
He may have thought I was bluffing because I was bulldozing the table but also consistently showing down for value.
It was a great call for me because it loosened the table. The tourists were excited to get involved.
I don't get Texas Hold 'em. Draw and stud poker were good enough for our boys overseas in the big one, and they are good enough for me.
This was like with thr first prime minister:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1035341/EU-news-Italy-budget-European-Union-reject-Eurozone-latest?utm_source=spotim&utm_
308M to 1 odds is not rational no matter where you are on the slope of some curve. Now, if you argue that it makes you feel good and it only costs $2, that’s rational.
”It is plain stupid to expect mathematical literacy from de Sitter, despite his having chosen a name from a mathematical model.”
He doesn’t even exist. At least not in this universe.
Dodgers got into the Sox bullpen.
Best of luck, Francisco.
@tim in vermont:
I don't get Texas Hold 'em. Draw and stud poker were good enough for our boys overseas in the big one, and they are good enough for me.
Yes! I cannot stand Texas Hold 'Em. I do not recall anyone playing or even talking about Texas Hold 'Em until the film Rounders came out in the late 1990s.
OM
Let's say you belonged to a union, with a million members. The union could buy all the tickets, every one, from union funds. Would you want your union to? I say you should, your union makes a profit of around 300 bucks for each member. You agree?
Let's say there were only 3 tickets for sale, jackpot $9. You could buy one for $2. Rational? Well, you have a positive expectation here. It’s a better investment than buying a savings bond actuarially, so it seems rational. You agree?
So this is Birkel's point. The investment has a positive expected return.
Original Mike:
Assume an infinite payout.
It would always be rational to play.
At zero payout, it would never be rational to play.
The question is where is the inflection point.
That much money will ruin your life.
We buy tickets and will split with a friend in Las Vegas.
Not gonna lie, I do now even want to win. My friend and my wife think it would be great.
Not me.
My friend in Vegas, who sends money to split the cost of lottery tickets once told me not to buy any unless the jackpot was at least a hundred million.
"WTFso, if we only win ten million, you don't want to split it?"
Some people have no common sense, which explains his move to Vegas to become a professional gambler.
Not workin' out real well.
So, exactly how many timesdid Keith Ellison beat the crap out of a woman and how many times did Claire McCaskills husband urinate on his ex?
FullMoon,
I would be setting up a raft of trusts to help family and loved ones avoid calamities (e.g. health issues or unexpected job loss) and set up a conservative foundation to deliver money to worthwhile pro-freedom causes.
And I would be making some financial managers, attorneys, and accountants very happy!
But mainly I expect I don't have to worry about it, lmmfao!
If I win the lottery, I am curious what Althouse would charge to give her honest opinion of whom she wanted to win in the Kavanaugh hearing.
”The investment has a positive expected return.”
That word “expected”? I don’t think it means what you think it means.
Budget for armed security and plan on leaving town in a hurry.
Past lottery winner stories
”Assume an infinite payout.
It would always be rational to play.”
And “infinite” is another word I don’t think you have a handle on.
The probability the mega millions payoff is positive for any ticket sold is if less than 452 million tickets are sold (904/2).
The Fed could buy all the numbers and use it to reduce the money supply.
OM,
He's just F-ing w/ ya.
Has been for a while.
Trump posted a video of then-Senator Barack Obama blasting people who come to the U.S. illegally.
“Those who come here illegally and those who employ them disrespect the rule of law and they are showing disregard for following the law,” Obama said. “We simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, unchecked, circumventing the line of people who are waiting patiently, diligently and lawfully to become immigrants in this country,” Obama added.
Trump posted the video to his Twitter account Tuesday evening with a caption, “I agree with President Obama 100%!”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/epic-trump-trolls-obama-over-his-prior-statements-on-illegal-immigration-video/
Thanks Birkel and Original Mike.
I was thinking about what Reagan said after being shot and going under the knife, "I sure hope you guys are Republicans."
I've gotten to know a lot of surgeons from my work. Most seem to be Republicans or conservatives.
Whew!
MIT students figured out how to make winning the Massachusetts lottery a sure thing, and a recent investigation suggests that the lottery commission knew about it.
Original Mike,
On what basis do you assert I do not understand the concept of infinity?
I would really like to know what information gives you this insight.
I understand that admitting the portion of my argument about infinity requires one to accept a point you seem not to like.
Fair enough.
That doesn't mean the argument is wrong.
Just to be safe, don’t wear your MAGA hat.
Tell us afterword how much you win, Birkel.
I've never played the lottery nor would I want to win one. Just think of all the distant relatives and charities that would come out of the woodwork to haunt you. Can't help but think of Steve Marin in The Jerk after he struck it rich. ['cat juggling' anyone?]
Martin not Marin.
Original Mike,
What makes you think I bought a ticket?
At least I have the decency to announce my assumptions in advance.
I doubt the Dodgers can beat the mighty Red Sox.
I doubt the Dodgers can beat the mighty Red Sox.
Neither starting pitcher lasted long.
BTW,
How cool will it be if Birk does end up being the only winner?
As if he isn't enough of an asshole already. Imagine him w/ a billion or so of dough.
I'm not a gambler (well, truth be told, I've married twice . . .), but I could have paid my way through college by NOT playing poker, if you know what I mean. I think I bought one lottery ticket in my life, probably in the '70's in Maryland, just to learn how it worked -- and the lottery proceeds went to education, which in those days that was a good cause, so you really couldn't lose.
The Brewers would have been a more loveable underdog.
Hey. Placing my marker. There is a network consisting of traders, financial traders. But they also trade in jokes, and there is a competitive advantage in being the trader with the good joke. This means that there are Kashoggi jokes. And I'm betting they are hilarious.
”How cool will it be if Birk does end up being the only winner?”
He can’t win if he doesn’t buy a ticket.
Simple math.
Technically, I could find an unsigned winning ticket without buying one.
Overall odds probably about the same as buying the winning ticket.
I just bought my first ticket. Guy at local quick stop talked me into it. I said "Ok, I'll split it with you if I win.". He said "nah, Just buy me a six pack." Then added "every day for the rest of my life." Rey is a nice guy. If I win he'll get his beer. The rest would be too scary to think about.
Well, OK, the marker is down. But so far, I'm not finding anything on Schmoogle. It looks like they are going full WaPo/NYT. But I did come across this, on a free search engine;
"Comedian Ted Alexandro Cracks Jokes About Louis C.K. at the Comedy Cellar"
So, meta-meta-semi-meta?
After tax payout would be roughly $612 million, btw.
That means NPV of a ticket if only one winner is approximately even money.
So maybe I would buy a ticket if nobody wins this drawing.
Anyway, guarantee, there are Khashoggi jokes. I mean, come on, the stupid asshole had a double-g in his name. What's that about? But you will not find them on Joogle.
'The Althouse Kibitz Room/cafe.'
Sounds good to me.
Probably overdue to head to W H-wood.
The Red Sox are relentless.
Base runners every inning, seemingly.
Original Mike
I fear it’s you who does not understand expected value, which as I told you, is a mathematical term with a precise definition. You seem like a decent guy most of the time, but only a fool pretends to technical knowledge he does not have, especially after this has ready been pointed out to him.
Its Turkish for spoonmaker, btw the employees at the consulate were not dismissed and did not see anything strange that day, according to prosecutors,
So who knows what really went on:
https://mobile.twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1054320809383223296
Hah! Happened again. Though I'm rooting for Boston, I warned Roberts not to take Baez out for the left-hander. I said, out loud, "You'll be sorry!" But did he listen? Of course not. ;-)
Flat Tire said...
I just bought my first ticket. Guy at local quick stop talked me into it. I said "Ok, I'll split it with you if I win.". He said "nah, Just buy me a six pack." Then added "every day for the rest of my life." Rey is a nice guy. If I win he'll get his beer. The rest would be too scary to think about.
10/23/18, 10:07 PM
"A 53-year-old woman who won $1 million from the lottery has been slapped with a lawsuit by the Northern California liquor store owner who sold her the winning Emerald 10 scratch-off ticket.
Laxmi Bhardwaj, owner of USA Liquors in Milpitas, claims Eva Reyes promised to evenly split the prize — which is $350,000 each after taxes — because he fronted her the money to buy the tickets, according to court documents."
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Milpitas-Liquor-Store-Owner-Sues-Lottery-Winner-295117671.html
Godfather
I had a friend in the 70s who did pay his way through college playing poker. Every summer he'd travel around pick8ng up games and winning.
"It's like the old saying says: It ain't over till it's over....wise man that Khashoggi Berra."
We're going to skip the Mega Millions and get a Powerball ticket because everybody is buying Mega Millions and presumably fewer are buying Powerball. Our chances of winning do not improve, but our chances of nothaving to split the pot if we do win improve
I had a few buddies who played black jack during school. Picked up some pretty good side money
Math is hard.
"Always go to other people’s funerals, otherwise they won’t come to yours."
We know what ya meant Big M.
Pulling for you, Big Mike.
Birkel
Re infinity. I agree with you about OM's comment. But just as an aside, very few people indeed have the remotest clue about infinity. “To infinity and beyond” is actually a sensible phrase for example. There are infinite numbers beyond any infinite number, including omega-1, the first infinite number.
Set theory is all about kinds of infinity and their implications (google “large cardinals”).
Regarding the lottery, buying a ticket is not rational, due to the law of diminishing returns.
What you can buy with $904,000,000 will not make you 450,000,000 times more happy than what you can buy with $2. Wouldn't make you 100,000,000 times more happy. Most likely, wouldn't even make you 100,000 times more happy.
Of course, if you get $2 worth of entertainment value from buying the ticket, that is a perfectly good reason. But a lottery ticket is not a retirement plan, nor an investment strategy.
How many murderous Saudi thugs does it take to ...
A kangaroo, a rabbi, and Louis CK walk into the Saudi embassy in Constantinople...
OK, here's one, from the Onion;
Trump: ‘The Only Way To Find Out What Happened At The Saudi Consulate Is To Send In More Journalists One At A Time’
Each of you, send me $2 dollars instead of buying a lottery ticket. The result will be the same - you will lose $2. On the bright side, I'll be $2 richer. Thank you.
Yes! I cannot stand Texas Hold 'Em. I do not recall anyone playing or even talking about Texas Hold 'Em until the film Rounders came out in the late 1990s.
I wondered where that weird and strangely uninteresting game came from. I played a ton of poker in college (1970-74) and the weirdest game we played was anything with wildcards (which I hated!)
I played a ton of poker in college (1970-74) and the weirdest game we played was anything with wildcards (which I hated!)
And the wild cards can get out of hand [especially if you play with silly relatives], as with 'Dr. Pepper' [10, 2 & 4] and 'Whores, fours and one-eyed jacks'. Chicago isn't too bad: Seven card stud with deuces wild.
President Trump has got the media and the left to come out and say that nationalism is a dirty word, and racist,too.
And he made it look easy.
It just occurred to me that I was probably supposed to buy one of these tickets.
At a store today I bought coffee, and then I received four dollars (and coins) as change.
The bills were two two dollar bills.
I left one as a tip. Hence, I still have the bill that is meant to buy the winning ticket.
Anywho, if I was more superstitious this would be a sign. Also, it would help if I didn't already know that this place regularly gives out two dollar bills (and fifty cent coins) as change.
The bills are always very crisp. Look new.
It must be possible to request them from yur bank teller.
I dunno.
Also, I think the coffee gal is into me.
Maybe I get the special change.
The last billion $ lotto I think was 1.5b and there were 3 winners.
Under the assumptions given, Birkel is correct. Here is the thing that is missing in the discussion, though KenB alludes to it in one of the comments by mentioning expected value:
It is rational to buy the ticket, under those assumptions Birkel stated, every time the opportunity presents itself. In this particular case under the same argument, for example, it is rational to buy every possible combination under the following assumptions- that you are the only winner and that the ancillary costs to buy all the combinations plus the costs of the tickets themselves doesn't exceed the payout after taxes. It is rational to do this under the assumptions if you could only purchase 5% of the possibilities, but get 20 opportunities in your life at a jackpot of this size. However, it is rational even if you only do it once with one ticket. It is like calling an allin bet on a draw in poker- the call is correct if your expected value is positive- this involves the odds of hitting your draw and winning the hand accounting for the pot size before and after your call. If the value is positive, it is rational to call the bet even if you know you are dying of cancer tomorrow.
In the real world, with real life assumptions, it isn't possible to buy all the combinations, nor is it possible to fully exclude the possibility that you will have to split the prize with others. I don't think the assumptions will hold here- the drawing tomorrow night will probably produce at least 2 or more winning tickets, and 5 or or more winners if the winning numbers are all 31 and/or less (birthdates, day and month, are common choices in combinations). I would imagine that for the realistic assumptions to hold, the jackpot would have to be in excess of 5 billion or more, and that is me assuming that the numbers of tickets purchased doesn't just go up proportionally with the pot size- a big assumption.
Community board poker games are popular because they have more easily computed odds than do games like stud- in stud you have a lot more information to work with during a hand (more cards face up on the table), but that complicates things unless you have a really quick mind at absorbing information and processing it correctly.
Professional poker players probably have a bigger edge in the more complex games, and that is why those games are more popular with professionals, but the money is made where the hoi polloi like to play, and that is Texas Holdem these days, though it was 5 card draw at one time. The last time I played at Foxwoods in 2014, there were no tables available for 7 card stud, and if you wanted to play pot limit Omaha, you had to play at least 10/20, and even that was unavailable except on the weekends. It was pretty much Holdem or nothing.
On a completely unrelated topic- if you are over age of 50, get the newest Shingles vaccine. I did not do so when it was suggested to me a couple of years ago by my mother the former nurse, and I am now regretting that decision. Shingles is a bitch, and I have a typical case of it. Talk about an aggravating affliction!
Y'all's talking' 'bout the Lottery? Jesus:
Here's The Wu-Tang Clan with The Dirty Dozen Brass Band's New Orleans Jazz to celebrate whoever won the damn thing!
Imagine the confusion and the fury if Trump won the damn lottery.
He would keep the money. You know that.
I’ll be in New York next week. Nobody win betwen now and then, okay!
Here's the thing: buying one chance priced at $2 is a lark. Buying ten (or two) chances doesn't improve your odds of winning meaningfully, so don't do it.
The only times that I've ever bought lottery tickets, is when someone is getting married, and I spend $20 worth of tickets and put them in the envelope. Good luck, newlyweds!
TMR: A Few Random Non-Thoughts From America’s (#1) Random Non-Person
"Of course, if you get $2 worth of entertainment value from buying the ticket,"
They say the lottery is a tax on the stupid but the stupider you are, the more you think that you are the one who is going to win, so the higher the entertainment value. The lottery is more a service to the stupid.
Honest people do not encourage other people to gamble - especially not poor other people.
Talk Talk Talk
As if he isn't enough of an asshole already. Imagine him w/ a billion or so of dough.
10/23/18, 9:51 PM
I know, peanut butter, right? Look what shit you are, and all you have is a copy of The Robb Report, with the pages stuck together at the ads (hmm, adSs?) with the bikini models. Imagine if you were actually as rich as you play here!
When the lotto is worth the normal size payout, watch who buys the lotta (looto???) tickets. It is normally the low end people. It is clearly a tax on the poor.
RE: Hold 'em
Pros have a huge advantage because it is a game of pressure and they usually have the bankroll to sustain big swings.
RE: Hold 'em
Pros have a huge advantage because it is a game of pressure and they usually have the bankroll to sustain big swings.
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