६ मार्च, २०१८

"North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has told South Korean envoys that his country is willing to begin negotiations with the United States on abandoning its nuclear weapons..."

"... and that it would suspend all nuclear and missile tests while it is engaged in such talks, South Korean officials said on Tuesday. During the envoys’ two-day visit to Pyongyang, the North’s capital, which ended on Tuesday, the two Koreas also agreed to hold a summit meeting between Mr. Kim and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on the countries’ border in late April, Mr. Moon’s office said in a statement. 'The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize,' the statement said. 'It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed.'... Mr. Trump has said that the United States could talk with North Korea, but “only under the right conditions.' American officials have repeatedly said they can start negotiations with the North only if it agrees to discuss denuclearizing.'..."

The NYT reports.

११९ टिप्पण्या:

Rusty म्हणाले...

That Trump. What a dumbass.

Ralph L म्हणाले...

Kim ought to have figured out by now that his family has ruined NK so badly, no one else wants to be responsible for it. East Germany without Soviet style--or food.

Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...

Looks like Kim Jung-un doesn't like the prospect of negotiating with a madman.

The Bergall म्हणाले...

As Forrest Gump used to say "And just like that........."

Sebastian म्हणाले...

"'The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize,' the statement said. 'It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated"

Considering the source, let's see how "clearly" they stated that, and how they "made clear" that they would have no reason.

Then let's let the sanctions bite, to focus the Norks' and Moon's mind.

Then let's don't trust, and verify concrete steps first.

sykes.1 म्हणाले...

It has long been clear that the North's nuclear weapons and missiles are intended to deter an American attack. It has also long been clear that a settlement of the Korean War, which would include security guarantees to the North's regime backed by Russia and China, would work. However, the missiles and warheads represent a massive investment of North Korean wealth and labor, and the North will not simply abandon them. What is needed is for the US to literally buy them. That would cost several hundred billion or maybe one trillion dollars, but that is much cheaper than the destruction of Japan. The North almost certainly would not use nukes on the South, nor even attack the South, in a war. It might attack American bases in the South.

In the long run (12 months?), peace on the peninsula requires the removal of American forces from South Korea, and maybe even from Japan. Both South Korea and Japan have substantial anti-American minorities (majorities?) that ardently wish for that.

Bay Area Guy म्हणाले...

Rocket Man is packing his bags pre-flight.

Hagar म्हणाले...

North Korea is not "giving up their nukes." If the Kim regime gives on any front and appears to weaken ever so slightly, their own people will kill them, and not in pretty ways.

David Begley म्हणाले...

If this happens, will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Nah.

cubanbob म्हणाले...

sykes.1 are you going to write the check? Maybe the Japanese, the South Koreans and the Chinese should be writing the check.

Ray - SoCal म्हणाले...

Interesting timing after Tarriff remarks.

Kim has three options:

1. Do the peace talk of peace talks.

2. Another nuke or missile test.

3. Escalate verbally

Goal is regime / family survival

अनामित म्हणाले...

They Lie

AllenS म्हणाले...

Not one penny for NK's nukes. Trump needs to make them an offer that they can't refuse.

rhhardin म्हणाले...

NK would prefer no sanctions, that means.

MadisonMan म्हणाले...

Potentially good news. I'm skeptical that it'll happen, but I was also skeptical that Hillary!!! could be beaten.

Ann Althouse म्हणाले...

"If this happens, will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize?"

If it works out it will be in spite of Trump. If it does not, it will be because of Trump.

Whatever happens will be understood as evidence of the badness of Trump.

It's like the way in scientific research, whenever there is a difference between men and women, it is understood that what is true of the woman is better.

exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...

Why would you believe them without some sort of proof? (i.e. cessation of tests, destruction of some of the launch facilities)

traditionalguy म्हणाले...

The Qanon world has had this event predicted and attributed to the Trump's military operations taken under his 12/21/17 Executive Order to confiscate the assets of the child trafficing ringss and the political corruption cabals. That has taken down the North Korean regime's masters, Kim being only one of their crisis actors.

So attribute this miracle to Admiral Rodgers. And expect to see more like it this week.

Bob Boyd म्हणाले...

Kim was educated in the west. He must see what it would mean for him to be the guy who brought NK into the modern world. How much control does he really have? There are a lot of evil generals and such heavily invested in the status quo. And maybe China prefers having this crazy little country to use as a foil.
Trump hasn't backed away from his stance of making better trade agreements. All the missile launching may have been about trying to scare him off that goal. It didn't work so China is telling Kim to turn the knob back down from eleven to nine or whatever. It's still progress.

Ann Althouse म्हणाले...

"Why would you believe them without some sort of proof?"

You have to believe them enough to satisfy your stated pre-condition to beginning to talk. Before, they had not done that, perhaps because they did not believe we would really require that, even though it's not all that much.

At each stage, you have different burdens of proof.

What does it mean to say "believe" here? No one is saying we believe them. But they are (per S Korea) saying something we'd said we needed to hear them say before we'd start talking.

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

It's like the way in scientific research, whenever there is a difference between men and women, it is understood that what is true of the woman is better.

Please provide some support for this bullshit statement.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent म्हणाले...

Bollocks. Blustering isn’t producing the geld, so they’re trying the other tack. Not a penny and not a single tank pulled back. Nice that it’s so transparent though. As I observed about the Left, batshit is very self-limiting.

traditionalguy म्हणाले...

"...The US is ready to go hard in either direction,"saith our Tweeter-in-Chief.

Mike (MJB Wolf) म्हणाले...

'Dealing with a madman is his problem, not mine': Donald Trump jokes about US meeting with North Korea

Heh heh.

tcrosse म्हणाले...

Guam must be feeling left out.

Mike (MJB Wolf) म्हणाले...

Please provide some support for this bullshit statement.

You're not new around here. Did you recently fall on your head or suffer a stroke?

Michael K म्हणाले...

This is probably another bait and switch. "You hold my money and I'll hold yours" but Trump is not Bill Clinton.

He has been dealing with Mafia types for decades.

Alan म्हणाले...

>>It's like the way in scientific research, whenever there is a difference between men and women, it is understood that what is true of the woman is better.

>>Please provide some support for this bullshit statement.

>>3/6/18, 8:44 AM
For the amount of time you spend commenting on this site, it's amazing how little of it you actually read.

Richard Dolan म्हणाले...

So call their bluff and see what happens. But don't stop doing all the things that got them to make the bluff in the first place.

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

For the amount of time you spend commenting on this site, it's amazing how little of it you actually read.

Just because you and Ann believe something doesn't make it true. This blog (and many commenters) often defends the opposite proposition.

SayAahh म्हणाले...

Are they any pallets available after the Iran payoff?

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

For the amount of time you spend commenting on this site, it's amazing how little of it you actually read.

Actually, the post after this about Christina Hoff Sommer contradicts Ann's bullshit statement.

Drago म्हणाले...

Althouse: "If it works out it will be in spite of Trump. If it does not, it will be because of Trump. Whatever happens will be understood as evidence of the badness of Trump."

Althouse is writing LLR Chuck's entries before he does for fun and profit!

Unknown म्हणाले...

Imagine the money we'll save that we are currently spending on the impossible to achieve, that of disentangling the U.S. military from S.K's, where on any morning when you go to a Commander's briefing you'd swear you were attending one in the states. To say nothing of their power point templates and basic training. We they are our Siamese twin. Where did the term Siamese come from I wonder? Making that disentangle unnecessary will save billions, to the agony of our defense contractors and their congressional representatives whose rice bowl this is. As it is, we're importing millions of tons of Chinese soil to make new land to build a U.S. base far away from Seoul. They now can make it a first class airport instead. We might even sell it to the the SK or Airline partners and make some something back for our Billions of Dollars invested over the Year's in SK's defense and paying NK's exportion and bribes so we could pretend and say to our citizens, they don't have WMD, when every country all over the world has some form of WMD, every single one. To say nothing of laying off half of the Non-proliferation fancy pants and paying First Class fare now that they've accomplished their mission.

Drago म्हणाले...

Freder: "Just because you and Ann believe something doesn't make it true. This blog (and many commenters) often defends the opposite proposition."

LOL

Is Freder really this obtuse, or is he just playing "dumb" the way lefties do when Trump cracks a joke?

We are talking about what the lefties like you say Freder, not what we believe in "normal Land".

It gets better:

Field Marshall Freder: "Actually, the post after this about Christina Hoff Sommer contradicts Ann's bullshit statement."

Wrong.

The left doesn't consider Christina Hoff Sommer a woman/female. They consider her a gender traitor and a nazi. We know that because they say that.

In precisely the same way Gloria Steinem referred to Kay Bailey Hutchison as a "female impersonator".

Again, one is forced to ask: Is Freder really this obtuse, or is he just playing "dumb" the way lefties do when Trump cracks a joke?

Caligula म्हणाले...

I'm sure North Korea will agree to destroy any and all nuclear weapons it possesses, and never again build more, just as soon as we deliver a big, big basket of cash.

And once that's done, well, we can be sure that Kim Jung-un won't renege. Can't we?

Or are we just too dumb to avoid being played for fools, over and over again?

CJinPA म्हणाले...

CNN.com sub-headline:

"Big Win for Moon"

CNN knows who will get credit for this and is not going just let people think is without a fight.

Drago म्हणाले...

Althouse: "What does it mean to say "believe" here? No one is saying we believe them."

Correct.

There is either some perceived value from a US national interest perspective to engage the NK leadership at this juncture or there is not.

Apparently there is.

And we haven't caved under Trump the way we caved under other US Presidents with payoffs to "Little Button" to reach this point.

And even this little bit of "something" (whatever it is) is sending the lefties and their LLR allies over the edge.

Unexpectedly.

Drago म्हणाले...

Caligula: "I'm sure North Korea will agree to destroy any and all nuclear weapons it possesses, and never again build more, just as soon as we deliver a big, big basket of cash."

I'm afraid obama's anti-American example of the Iran Deal is still a much hoped for outcome by the North Koreans.

gerry म्हणाले...

Freder Frederson's reactive outrage over a humorous (and admittedly amusing) Althouse comment made me think about the Christina Hoff Sommer post's video. Freder would fit right in with that STAY WOKE crowd!

Mike (MJB Wolf) म्हणाले...

Oh Freder. Simply google "men and women differences, study shows" and the headlines and blurbs are all formatted like this:

GENDER BRAIN DIFFERENCES MAY EXPLAIN WHY WOMEN ARE KINDER THAN MEN

Women's Brains Have More Blood Flow Than Men's, New Study Shows
Here's why that might be important.

Men's and women's brains react differently when helping others, study says. Women tend to be more altruistic than men, previous studies have shown.
As Philippe Tobler, co-author of the new study, sees it, "women put more subjective value on prosocial behavior and men find selfish behavior more valuable."


By the way I still don't believe your ignorant pose. You know this. You've read this blog before. Up your game man!

LTC Ted म्हणाले...

"Talk, talk. {Nuke, nuke]"

Kevin म्हणाले...

Weren't scheduled war games delayed until after the Olympics?

And wasn't the US and its allies planning the biggest show of force yet?

And wouldn't the Norks have a hard time doing anything similar, given the sanctions and scarcity of fuel for jets that burn a lot of it?

And wouldn't KJU be better off talking than having his top aides see that he has no hope of winning a war?

#JustChecking

Paul म्हणाले...

So we are to 'guarantee' a tyrant's regime that starves his own people in perpetuity? See Kim II, Kim III, Kim IV, Kim V, etc... I bet that 'guarantee' will include subsidies from South Korea and others.

No... HELL NO.

traditionalguy म्हणाले...

In all seriousness, the way Norks got from basic research into fission weapons and short range missiles to a jump
Start on Hydogen weapons and ICBMs in a year or two and suddenly had world class computer skills for cyberwar is with outside help.

Trump’s MI and Treasury guys removed that outside help by defeating Obama and Hillary so he could have the outside helper’s weapons, rockets, and computer guys change sides or be stripped of wealth and arrested. That removed the codes the Noel’s needed to fire thermonuclear missiles. And with that weapon system emasculated and an attack by the US Madman's super weapons coming next month, the terms of his surrender were all that Kim has left.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

Maybe his cheerleaders came back from SoKo and asked why NoKo can't be more like them? Maybe Kim's sister had a Ninotchka experience.

Kevin म्हणाले...

google "men and women differences, study shows"

Studies show, experts say, and unidentified sources report Trump will get no good press on anything he does.

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

The left doesn't consider Christina Hoff Sommer a woman/female.

Ann made an absolute statement, that scientific research always finds "that what is true of the woman is better." That is the bullshit, not that you can point to instances where there is a bias.

Kevin म्हणाले...

That is the bullshit, not that you can point to instances where there is a bias.

Then you should easily find counterexamples where men outperform women, and where the authors point out this shows the superiority of men.

That would be the correct response. It allows you to either prove your point or use your examples to point out you missed what Ann was saying.

"That is bullshit" is a bullshit response.

Achilles म्हणाले...

Funny what happens when you have a president that puts US priorities first.

We had 28 years without such a person as president. Here is to hoping the American people are free of globalist dirt bags from here on out.

Rusty म्हणाले...

Freder Frederson said...
"It's like the way in scientific research, whenever there is a difference between men and women, it is understood that what is true of the woman is better.

Please provide some support for this bullshit statement."

Here's a buck. Go buy yourself a sense of humor.

Gahrie म्हणाले...

Ann made an absolute statement, that scientific research always finds "that what is true of the woman is better." That is the bullshit, not that you can point to instances where there is a bias.

Cite a study in the last twenty years that does differently.

Hagar म्हणाले...

Slightly off topic, but since AA commented (tongue in cheek) about the difference between men and women: why are all the local judges I see on the evening news women?

And what has been long remarked upon: why are public school teachers 85+/-% women.
Do they actually have statistics on teachers, or is it just public school employees? Since most janitorial and grounds keeping staff presumably is mostly men, the ratio may be even more heavily weighted.

For some reason, I just woke up thinking about that this morning.

Hagar म्हणाले...

North Korea is as if Jim Jones or David Koresh had somehow got themselves a country. You cannot negotiate with that the same as with a rational government.

Ralph L म्हणाले...

why are all the local judges I see on the evening news women?

Why are the majority of fictional TV detectives good looking and female, esp. in Britain? And every male one has a female boss who's usually younger than he is. I'm sure it happens all the time.

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

Cite a study in the last twenty years that does differently.

That was easy

Hagar म्हणाले...

I am talking about the actual municipal judges here in Albuquerque, Ralph. No fiction.

Hagar म्हणाले...
ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.
Hagar म्हणाले...

And I am not complaining, since I have no idea of how well they do; just pointing out that there obviously is some self-selection by sex going on.

Gahrie म्हणाले...

Cite a study in the last twenty years that does differently.

That was easy


The first sentence of your link proves our point, not yours:

"A new study has been criticised for suggesting that women are less intelligent than men."

Fred Drinkwater म्हणाले...

Freder,the guy too lazy to read the link text, headline or first graph of his own counterexample.

langford peel म्हणाले...

We have no business in Japan or South Korea. Why not take what we spend on defense for these worthless gooks for three years and buy all of Norks nukes?

We can bring our boys home and station them on the border.

America first.

langford peel म्हणाले...

Enough with leaving our soldiers and their dependants as hostages in South Korea. They hate us just like most of the Japs. We don't owe them anything. We have done enough already.

Bring our boys home.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"Why not take what we spend on defense for these worthless gooks for three years and buy all of Norks nukes?"

Because the Norks will then take the money you gave them and buy more nukes.

And in the meantime the Chinese will create an empire in SE Asia, which is going on and will go much faster with the US out of the way.
Doing that will make China a global power. Not the absolute worst lot to threaten to become a global power, but this will be a terribly dangerous thing.

That's the other reason of US bases in Japan and SK.

buwaya म्हणाले...

US isolationism is an understandable desire, but the thing is ultimately unrealistic.

The US, being the guarantor of the Pax Americana, is like the fellow riding the tiger. Its no fun anymore, but there is the problem of getting off the tiger.

Ralph L म्हणाले...

Hagar, a high percentage of non-sharkish lawyers are female is my guess. They want to rise "above" the fray but still tell people what to do. Makes more sense than a rash of good-looking cis-female cops.

David-2 म्हणाले...

Exaggeration for effect is a form of rhetoric. For FF to claim that AA made a "absolute statement" of dialectic is exactly the same kind of nonsense as claiming that DJT's joke that the Russians should hack and release Hillary's emails was a serious request to the Russians. And for the same reasons. And the pose isn't fooling anyone.

Hagar म्हणाले...

I have read that North Korea get 1/3 of its income from its own production, 1/3 from international grants (charity), and 1/3 from illegal trafficking in weapons and drugs.

Hagar म्हणाले...

Municipal judges in NM apparently have very little room for creativity, but are very narrowly circumscribed by statutes passed by the legislature and other rules imposed on them. Perps are indeed just "processed" in the lower courts.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

Trump preaches America first, not America only. We owe the Japanese defense because of the treaty signed at armistice. We agreed to defend them in lieu of their rebuilding their own military.

pacwest म्हणाले...

"Why not take what we spend on defense for these worthless gooks for three years and buy all of Norks nukes?"

Buy off the NORKS for a couple of trillion dollars? I hope we can get a better deal when we have to buy off the next country that try to hold us hostage. News of talks give rise to small hope, but I'd guess it will just be another round of 'we won't be fooled again'. If President Trump manages to disarm NK it would be an achievement second only to putting Hillary behind bars. I'll hold my breath.

"Its no fun anymore, but there is the problem of getting off the tiger."

Well said. And now we are bidding against the Chinese and Russians to build nuclear plants in Saudi Arabia that will ultimately lead to nukes. Ride the tiger. Til it eats you.

langford peel म्हणाले...


" And in the meantime the Chinese will create an empire in SE Asia, which is going on and will go much faster with the US out of the way.
Doing that will make China a global power. Not the absolute worst lot to threaten to become a global power, but this will be a terribly dangerous thing. "

Why do we need to get in a dick measuring contest with the chinks? If they want to be responsible for that patch we should let them. They would squash rocketman toot sweet.

China is already a superpower albeit one with inherent limitations. A much preferable one to Iran or Germany for that matter.

Neo-cons want to start wars to show"America's" power or prestige or some other chicken hawk bullshit. While the working class has to fight and die to make Bill Kristol and David French feel like a man.

It's a rich mans war and a poor mans fight.

Bring our boys and all that money home. Let China have Asia as their sphere of influence. We don't need to be at that end of a supply line.

America first.

langford peel म्हणाले...

"Trump preaches America first, not America only. We owe the Japanese defense because of the treaty signed at armistice. We agreed to defend them in lieu of their rebuilding their own military."

Japan should rebuild their military. If you don't want to buy the Norks nukes I can understand that. So give the Japa a few nukes. Like Isreal they can stand on their own two feet.

WW2 was a long time ago. The Hittites were allied to the Egyptians too. Things change.

America has no permanent allies only permanent interests. It is not in our interest to pay the tab for defense while the Japs and South Korea screws us economically.

India is next to China. They have nukes. They take care of themselves. Without our money or our troops. If the dot heads can do that the Japs and the gooks can do it too.

America first.

Freder Frederson म्हणाले...

Like Isreal they can stand on their own two feet.

Who told you that Israel can stand on their own two feet? They are seriously deluded.

traditionalguy म्हणाले...

FTR, the South Koreans do not hate Americans. The opposite is true. A third of South Koreans are practicing Christians. For comparison, only a twentieth of Europeans are practicing Christians.

readering म्हणाले...

Baby steps.

Jim at म्हणाले...

This Trump guy sure sucks at starting nuclear wars.

Jim at म्हणाले...

Rocket Man is packing his bags pre-flight. - B.A.G.

Heh.

Kevin म्हणाले...

Let's face it, KJU could score bigly with aspiring actresses in South Korea and LA if he could just get his country to the point he could leave it for a few weeks at a time.

Whatever the talent pool in NK, he has already fished that pond.

FullMoon म्हणाले...

Fredor,

The IQ of each participant was also measured. The team found that men had an average brain volume of 1.2 litres compared with 1 litre for women, and that people with bigger brains had slightly higher IQ scores.

However, some studies have shown that EQ – emotional intelligence – is a more effective indicator of success in the workplace and wider life. Women typically score higher than men on this measure.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"Why do we need to get in a dick measuring contest with the chinks?"

Because they will get into a dick measuring contest with you.
When pretty much all your trading partners have kowtowed, then you also will kowtow, because they will be overwhelmingly powerful.

That is, after all, what the US ended up doing no matter how dressed up it was.

Birkel म्हणाले...

Freder Frederson self-beclowned as if self-beclownment was the goal. That was bizarre.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

After the Federal Reserve, China is our biggest debt holder.

J. Farmer म्हणाले...

This is an important step towards deescalating tensions on the peninsula and opening the door to a larger negotiated settlement. But it is still just a diplomatic overture, and no one should be quick to jump to any conclusions. While they have tacitly put denuclearization on the table, they are asking a high price. They would essentially want an end to US military presence on the peninsula and an end to joint exercises between the US and the ROK.

I think the US should easily be prepared to give up those two thins. South Korea is not a vital interest of the US, and they are more than capable of providing for their own defense. The support it gets us is a diminishing return as younger Koreans are much less enthusiastic about the US-ROK relationship than the previous generation, though a strong cultural affinity remains. The larger prize, though, is that the removal of such forces is a win for China and could be used to extract some desirable concession from China.

Paul म्हणाले...

langford peel said...

"We have no business in Japan or South Korea. Why not take what we spend on defense for these worthless gooks for three years and buy all of Norks nukes?"

We have treaties with Japan and South Korea and plenty of trade.

As for buying off Rocket Man's Nukes? Hell's Bell's man, we have tried all kinds of appeasement with that runt and he as LIED TO US, REPEATEDLY!!!

No Appeasement. NONE. Offer him safe asylum in Zimbabwe for him and his cohorts, take it or leave it.

Ralph L म्हणाले...

After the Federal Reserve, China is our biggest debt holder.

What about the SS Lockbox?

It used to be the American people.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"we have tried all kinds of appeasement with that runt"

Mostly with his daddy, but it remains an important point.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"What about the SS Lockbox?"

A fiction from the beginning.

Ralph L म्हणाले...

Joke

buwaya म्हणाले...

A South Korea out of the US orbit will have to deal with China naked.

A China with the preponderance of force in East Asia, that is, a fleet capable of dominating the Western Pacific, which is going to be the consequence of a US withdrawal, will be able to dictate terms to South Korea, and probably Japan. Do what China demands, or no trade for them. The lesser nations, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, maybe (probably) Malaya, Indonesia, Singapore, will be dessert.

These would be client states and forced allies, not colonies, something between the USSR's Comecon and Nato. With the very important advantage of being able to pay for themselves and provide valuable assistance in many areas to China.

What the Chinese would demand is a good question. I suspect the Chinese haven't gone very far into what they want out of their likely clients. But they will certainly think of something.

langford peel म्हणाले...

"A China with the preponderance of force in East Asia, that is, a fleet capable of dominating the Western Pacific, which is going to be the consequence of a US withdrawal, will be able to dictate terms to South Korea, and probably Japan. Do what China demands, or no trade for them. The lesser nations, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, maybe (probably) Malaya, Indonesia, Singapore, will be dessert.

These would be client states and forced allies, not colonies, something between the USSR's Comecon and Nato. With the very important advantage of being able to pay for themselves and provide valuable assistance in many areas to China. "

So what?

They should be their client states. They are in their sphere of influence. They will find that controlling all of those people will be more trouble than they are worth.

They are certainly more trouble than the worth to us. What we going to miss? Mediocre pitchers, take out bike delivery guys and desperate women for Shouting Thomas to date?

All easily replaceable.

I believe in no foreign entanglements. Just like the father of our country. Let's go back to basics.

America first.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"I believe in no foreign entanglements. Just like the father of our country. Let's go back to basics."

Technology spoils everything.
Japan and Korea were, for hundreds of years, devoted to just that policy.
Until some ^$^%*%% foreigners showed up.

Ming and Qing China ditto, to the extent they could. But neither succeeded.

The US has been safe from the world for two centuries. The strategic situation was dictated by geography and technology. The US had little to worry about, with such natural isolation and such size and potential power, the logistics of direct war were impossible for anyone that wasn't much more mighty than the US.

But if someone arises who is indeed much more mighty, then those oceans will be as nothing. And long before that a non-American global economic hegemony could make things difficult for a recalcitrant America. Just like America has for all sorts of recalcitrant states.

buwaya म्हणाले...

One very important use of an ally is to deny him, as an ally, to your potential opponent. A dog in the manger strategy. You may not be able to make much use of him, but your opponent might.

Original Mike म्हणाले...

”What about the SS Lockbox?

Actually, the “Lockbox” does hold a lot of the debt, and that’s a problem. For Social Security.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"and that’s a problem. For Social Security."

It holds no "debt" or anything else. All its got is promissory notes, of a sort, the payment terms for which can be changed at whim by for instance a redefinition of COLA adjustments through an administrative change in the way the BLS calculates the CPI. Or more generally by passing changes to the Social Security Act.

I expect some such change will come at some point when US demographics get more challenging.

J. Farmer म्हणाले...

@buwaya:

A South Korea out of the US orbit will have to deal with China naked.

That is not true. South Korea could easily pursue closer relations with Japan as a counter to China. Plus, not having forces on their territory or a mutual defense treaty does not make them "naked." The US can sell them military technology and provide them assistance in various other ways.

These would be client states and forced allies, not colonies, something between the USSR's Comecon and Nato. With the very important advantage of being able to pay for themselves and provide valuable assistance in many areas to China.

Those are not the only possibilities. First, the comparison to NATO makes no sense. None of the countries will be in arrangement resembling a mutual defense pact. Second, the power China exerts in East Asia is primarily economic and will remain so. Similarly, the power the US wields in the Americas is economic, not the threat that we will attack a country with conventional military force.

Original Mike म्हणाले...

”It holds no "debt" or anything else.”

It holds IOUs.

buwaya म्हणाले...

"South Korea could easily pursue closer relations with Japan as a counter to China."

But even the two together cannot be a counter to China. Perhaps not even if one or both acquire nuclear weapons. Leaving MAD aside, China has the economy to create more naval power than they can match. And neither could then contest a naval blockade.

No US guarantee, with a fleet sufficient to keep navigation open, and they will have to seek an arrangement with China. That's going to take a very large and very expensive US fleet btw. None of this will require firing a shot (unless someone makes a huge miscalculation). Simply comparing the could be with what is. Mahan still counts.

"None of the countries will be in arrangement resembling a mutual defense pact."

If China acquires the sort of overwhelming power I think it is capable of, then they will be in whatever arrangement China dictates.

"Second, the power China exerts in East Asia is primarily economic and will remain so."

At the moment, for a while longer. Note that for several years now China has been regularly claiming to control passage of foreign naval vessels through its claimed waters in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). It lets Americans through, under protest, for now.

And now China is making implicit claims to the Benham Rise, the shallow seas on the OTHER side of the Philippines. China is claiming naming rights for undersea features - which is certainly the foot in the door to claiming de-facto rights there.

There are an awful lot of Chinese semi-warships floating around in all those parts.

langford peel म्हणाले...

Again so what?

Why spend billions to defend the Japs? They did pretty good in WW2. Give them some nukes and a copy of "Tora Tora Tora" and our best wishes. They can be a counterweight to Chna. There are many fault lines in Chinese society. Trying to become an empire will expose them it will bankrupt them just as it did to the Soviets. Just as it will to us if we squander billions on every shithole in the world for the greater glory of Bill Kristol and the Weekly Standard. Or the rest of the George Bush Rhino Neocon elitists.

Put America first. American jobs. Americas economy. American soldiers lives.

We don't need to get in a dick measuring contest with the chinks. Let them have their hegemony. It will destroy them.

It always does.

langford peel म्हणाले...

Energy is the perfect example. We went to war with Saddam to protect the Saudis. In return we got Ben Laden and 911. When we had all the oil we needed. It was here in America but we couldn't take it out of the ground because of a bunch of tree hugging homos.

We can do things here in America. We have everything we need. American factories with American workers. Of course that blows up Wallmart and Amazons business model. Their life blood is cheap shit from China. We might have to pay more but Americans will be making more money. Because they will have jobs.

We need to rebuild America for Americans. Not for corporate elitists and their media lap dogs.

Put America first. Not the Game of Thrones elitist dreams of the Deep State.

buwaya म्हणाले...

Reality comes to an isolationist in this manner -

- When foreigners demand favorable (to them) terms of trade, which cannot be contested as they control not merely all or most your counterparties, but have command of the seas. They demand, say, a reduction in your tarriffs on pain of a trade boycott.

- When foreigners demand changes in your laws, to suit their interests. Demanding the right to invest in things you are denying them, or to permit import of things you have banned, or that you forgo export of things they have banned.

- When foreigners demand extraterritorial rights for their people in your country, and their property besides.

- When foreigners demand sovereignty over parts of your territory, where some concentration of their citizens reside, or bases for their armed forces.

All of these were demanded of China in the 19th century, and they have very long memories. When it is the Chinese Navy enforcing the Pax Sinica (assuming the US goes quietly and abandons naval supremacy to China), then you are, barring some MAD scenario, defenseless against any of this. You will have to kowtow.

Technology makes a truly global power possible. You cannot remain truly sovereign against that.

buwaya म्हणाले...

There is time yet, for my scenario. It may not happen.

China may well blow up, or stagnate, or become self-obsessed.
The US and its Navy may not go gentle into that good night.
Maybe Japan and South Korea will find fortitude and some extreme of technology the Chinese can't match.

Maybe computer AI's will conquer all of us, and make everything moot.

But, for now, what I say is the trend.

langford peel म्हणाले...

China is based on cheap exports and the theft of technology. America can remain the global leader in tech,

China has to buy our foodstuffs. Our coal. Now our energy.

Spending billions on Korea does nothing to protect our tech edge.

If anything letting China bite off more than they can chew will weaken them significantly.

We can spend on defense. More than enough to defend ourselves. To make all of youR points mute. China can't even get the Norks under control and they are a weak client state right next to them.

We can't spend enough to defend every shithole in the world. Sorry those days are over. It is not 1945 anymore.

J. Farmer म्हणाले...

@buwaya:

China is a rising power. That is a fact. We can either pursue accommodation (my preferred strategy) or "containment," with all its anachronistic baggage. Unfortunately, the US has for the last couple of decades been pursuing the latter, under the so called "hub-and-spoke" strategy. The US has pursued closer military relations to countries on China's border. Imagine if China pursued closer military integration with Mexico. We would (rightly) consider that a highly provocative act. The US defines it security interests essentially globally but then imagines that it can push its forces right up to another's country's borders and any counter reaction is irrational aggression.

buwaya म्हणाले...

You are correct, that is the truth. The US maintains many allies adjacent to China and that certainly annoys China. That is not irrational policy nor is it an irrational reaction on the part of the Chinese.

But power of this sort is a zero sum game. If the US doesn't have it, or won't use it, the Chinese have it and will use it, by default.

It constrains China. The problem with a "Pax" is that it is based on a hegemony that comes of controlling the seas.

When you let China obtain a sphere of influence, especially with the naval power it will have, the sphere of influence will naturally expand, as the next state over will see that it too is naked, and the next, and then the advance will leap oceans.

At which point the Chinese get to dictate all manner of international norms. Which its neighbors certainly won't like, and I think not too many others will either, but they will kowtow.

Unlike the US China is used to collecting tribute, making a profit off its tributaries. Unlike with the US, I see China taking economic advantage of its satellites in order to maintain an ever larger and ever more capable military. I think it can make its military pay for itself. For a good long while anyway.

The modern nature of sea power means that it will be extremely expensive (and extremely risky) to challenge a hegemony.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

The problem with a "Pax" is that it is based on a hegemony that comes of controlling the seas.

So very true, buwaya. I would add the skies, too.

buwaya म्हणाले...

Sometimes you can see a conflict from many years away. Sometimes it can arise quite quickly.

The case of the German naval buildup, for instance, was obviously a cause of war with Britain a decade before 1914. It took just about a decade to create a realistic (if ultimately insufficient) threat to British naval supremacy.

The case of the US in the Philippines created an enmity and a strategic rivalry in East Asia between the US and Japan forty years before war came. Lots of people predicted it even before 1905 - by William Howard Taft, among others. That was, for that time, an avoidable rivalry. It was not necessary to get on the tiger, but you did. There were many attempts to limit or defuse it, but ultimately what must happen, will.

What you have in East Asia now is a rivalry that cannot be avoided, you are already on the tiger and cannot get off. And the strategic balance is changing, now, at a rate approaching that ominous decade of the 1900s.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

IIRC, China was closed to trade well after Japan and Korea had opened up their ports to European merchant ships.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

BTW, I assume langford peel is a troll. In any case, referring to Japan and South Korea as 'shit hole' countries indicates that he has never been to either.

Gahrie म्हणाले...

Second, the power China exerts in East Asia is primarily economic and will remain so.

Tell that to Nepal.

buwaya म्हणाले...

The Chinese started having "unequal treaties" forced on them from 1842 on (the Opium Wars). The big ones opening trade were from 1858-60, and a bunch more followed.

China and Japan were "opened" at about the same time. Korea followed a couple of decades later.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

I believe Japan was trading with the Portuguese in the 16th century.

Gahrie म्हणाले...

We didn't treat China or Japan any differently than they would have treated us if the roles had been reversed.

langford peel म्हणाले...

A troll is someone who presents an opinion you don't like.

I classify all other countries as shitholes.

I worry about America. I don't want to bankrupt us and turn our country into a shithole.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

I don't want to bankrupt us and turn our country into a shithole.

If America becomes a shithole it won't be due to a failed economy. It will be due to failed immigration policies.

buwaya म्हणाले...

So was China.

Both had ways to license foreign trade, the Chinese always being much more "liberal" than the Japanese. The China trade was a very big deal even in the 16th century, and ultimately absorbed, probably, most of the silver the Spanish took out of the New World (after floating through most of Europe to pay their debts).

But it had to go through licensed Chinese merchants and they would accept only silver - a near-total import ban otherwise.

The Japanese were far more restrictive - only two ships per year allowed, etc.

An fascinating period.

Earlier times interestingly saw relatively free trade in both China and Japan. There is some very interesting stuff in Manila museums, on the China trade. For a while there Manila was an entrepot for the China trade, till the Chinese locked it down.

Unknown म्हणाले...

Nepal must want the killing to end knowing they have no hope and only suffer abuse from th fancy pants sect. They have nearly unlimited Hydro power. The could be Like France is to the rest of Europe where 10% of France's GDP comes from EDF shipping most of their power to the EC, using their 70 Neutron Burners rather than coal or gas. Time to make a deal like Hong Kong did, import some new rulers, ask Xi to volunteer one of his children into a royal marriage and everyone gets rich. A new Alpine resort of the first order. Make money not war.Study the Chinese rules of cross family marriage, a wonderful thing.

Alex म्हणाले...

Trump is ruthless and everyone knows it. You don't mess with Trump and live to tell the tale!

Rusty म्हणाले...


Buwata said,
"The problem with a "Pax" is that it is based on a hegemony that comes of controlling the seas."
Which is why I keep asking our pedantic friend J. how many aircraft carriers does the United States needs.
A major reason we enjoy cheap trade with the rest of the world. Mark my words. When China finally controls the S. China sea they are going to charge a toll on every ship that goes through.
Who would you rather have controlling the worlds oceans?