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Are you anywhere near the path of Irma? What are you doing? What are you worrying that perhaps you should be doing but are not doing yet? Is anyone in a car, evacuating, and reading this?
६ सप्टेंबर, २०१७
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I'm no where near it now, BUT . . . . we're heading to Disney World next week, so I'm watching anxiously. It looks like it will hit south of there, and Disney's far enough inland that it doesn't usually take a bad hit, and it looks like it should hit before we leave home, so I think it will all be OK, but it's still concerning. My inlaws are already in the area.
I did some reading on how the Mouse does handle hurricanes, though. Like all things Disney, it's a sort of amazing model of organization and logistics.
As a resident of Galveston, Texas, I always keep a watchful eye on the Gulf. But I don't freakout. I am pretty much ready for anything.
Oh, and shame on me for not adding above that I wish the best for the people who are worried about more than just having their vacation plans somewhat disrupted!
I'm in Milwaukee. We should be okay.
Just moved out of Florida, strange to say.
Best wishes for anyone in the path.
We're good in Phoenix. :)
Fear not! A navy of third-wave feminists is heading for Florida to lead rescue efforts.
My father lives in Florida but is a boat captain in Puerto Rico. They left Monday and are heading south to avoid the storm. Rest of the family is still in Florida but on the west coast so likely to be less adversely effected than those on the east.
Here's hoping the hurricane deflector Florida installed a decade ago is still functioning.
I have kin in Miami so we're watching closely. The computer models have been trending more and more towards a northern turn before it reaches Florida. Here's the latest.
NC on the coast. Waiting to see what happens. We should be OK, we're a good 14 feet above sea level.
"I have kin in Miami so we're watching closely. The computer models have been trending more and more towards a northern turn before it reaches Florida. Here's the latest."
Several of those models heading for DC. We were caught by surprise in the days before satellites and it was bad.
I am watching from afar and resisting the urge to ask friends to check on my house, though I did give permission to raid it for supplies like batteries, etc. After it's over and gas is available, I will head down with a cargo trailer of stuff friends and family need, like generators, etc.
Irma is keeping me very busy.
I think the west coast of FL is looking better and better. We'll see if actually hits FL -- or if it does a Matthew and stays right offshore. I'd be nervous if I lived in South Carolina though, the models seem to be converging there at the moment, although things will change.
This is one reason why I don't live on the coast, btw.
If Irma takes the most easterly track and comes ashore anywhere along North Carolina then we'll see heavy rainfalls a couple days later. I may need to get and fill a bunch of sandbags to protect the back basement door. They're building a house on a neighboring lot so I have access to plenty of dirt. We already stocked up on extra water. I had planned to arrange a battery backup for the sump pump. May have waited too long.
Here in New Orleans, we are filling up gas tanks (many folks run out of gas during evacuations because there is no where to fill up once hysteria starts), stocking up on supplies like water, batteries, non-perishable foods. My husband is watching the spaghetti models (the varying models predicting where the storm is headed), and it appears that it is going to turn north. Katrina was not supposed to come our way (it shifted at the last minute, maybe a day or two before it hit). So we keep an eye on the weather, try to have a game plan about where we would go if we needed to evacuate. I try to stay calm, but there are a lot of people here who are hyped up, tracking storms and signed up for all kinds of weather alerts the minute a storm is identified. Kind of a PTSD response to Katrina where we left our house with two sundresses and the kids and were stuck somewhere unfamiliar for the next 2 months.
It's presently cloudy in Star Prairie Wisconsin.
Great wind theater. Flying alligators are always entertaining.
Seriously, the tourist industry will be hardest hit with the Airlines already shutting down, not yet knowing which way the wind blows.
I have relatives on the Gulf side - they are evacuating tomorrow evening out of an abundance of caution. They just completed a home build... hope it misses that! Could the building codes stand up to 185 mph?
I'm not in the path but my house is, as are friends and neighbors. The 11AM spaghettini models have Irma dodging and contorting to avoid major land masses in the Caribbean then reversing and arching Florida to stay in open water only to hit the continental US right on top of my neighborhood. The news there can only get better from here. We've been checking on everyone. Nobody is staying except for the first responders.
I notice something new on Drudge yesterday (or, at least, something I had never noticed before in the story links)- a little story link at the top about "Will Storm Hit East Tennessee?" I suppose that one is specific to where your ISP is. I imagine people living in North Georgia got one for that region, too.
For reference, however, my parents and two of my sisters lived here in East Tennessee in 1989 when Hugo hit, and they got sustained strong tropical storm winds from that storm which was a cat 1 hurricane deep into the interior of the Carolinas, and still a tropical storm in East Tennessee.
I'm not in Irma's path, but I find it interesting (and frustrating) that we cannot predict the path of a hurricane with more precision. I mean, we know virtually all there is to know about hurricanes -- how they're created, how they work, what causes them to strengthen and weaken, etc., yet we still cannot predict with much accuracy where the hurricane will be in 72 hours. How is that even possible, given that we can predict with much more certainty the climate in 72 years?
" How is that even possible, given that we can predict with much more certainty the climate in 72 years?"
It is the difference in being proven wrong in 72 hours vs 72 years.
" How is that even possible, given that we can predict with much more certainty the climate in 72 years?"
Nobody will remember in 72 years. Remember the the Simon-Ehrlich bet ?
That's only 37 years.
I'm watching the storm predictions from the west coast of Florida. The freezer has lots of new ice cubes. All laundry is done in anticipation of power loss. Valuable things at floor level are elevated. More tables can be set up to elevate other stuff. There is plenty of time to evacuate north by car if Irma's track veers west again.
Madison Man said...."This is one reason why I don't live on the coast, btw."
Madison is a place where you can live with Coasties, but not on the coast!
I prefer the Sconnies.
Good one, DKWalser. Reliable forecasters don't want to predict 72 hours out because people's lives are on the line and no one wants that on their conscience. On the other hand, fabricating BS about the weather 72 years from now carries no risk and $millions in rewards, along with big bonus virtue signaling feelz, so of course pond scum will do it. (I'm looking at you Al Bore and Bill Nye the Suckup Guy.) Meanwhile my buddy boarded up her little Florida Keys tourist money extraction shop and is enjoying the glories of New Hampshire for a week. Or maybe forever, depending on that elusive storm track.
Blogger AllenS said...It's presently cloudy in Star Prairie Wisconsin.
I took the new bridge between Stillwater and Houlton (again) on Sunday returning from a bike ride near Dresser. Nice freeway. The repaving north of Somerset (Hwy 35) is going to be a good thing too.
I live in Orlando. Just waiting for now. Supplies still easy to come by except bottled water. All stores are out and there are 25-50 person lines in each supermarket waiting in the bottled water aisle.
Am in Miami (from the Twin Cities) on a consulting engagement with a large power company. Have been observing preparations with interest; long lines at Walmarts and gas stations, but everyone I've seen polite and focused on getting ready. Today is hot and sunny, lines are actually down at Walmart from yesterday and I saw bottled Fiji-brand water still on the shelf for $1/bottle where a lot of stores were out earlier in the week. Gas prices have gone up, currently $2.75 and climbing. My client sent everyone home yesterday to prepare their own homes so that they can be ready to rebuild/recover power delivery next week. I fly out tomorrow just ahead of the storm, was told it might be 2-4 weeks before I can return depending upon severity.
Not in Florida but in California, so most disasters that we may have would be earthquake related and do not have the luxury of an advanced warning. Surprise!!! Fires are common and you do have some warning. Get out.
However, were I in the path of a big hurricane (especially if I lived in Florida near the coast), I would already be battening down the hatches, trying to secure my valuables, load up a trailer or two and getting my ass in gear to head out to higher and hopefully safer ground.
Why wait? If you CAN evacuate, and many people can't for various reasons, you should go earlier to avoid being trapped on the highways and unable to get to safety.
The issue that comes up, is that in the past the media have created hysterical, breathless reports that turn out to be a big nothing burger. They have cried wolf so many times, that people are not paying that much attention and stay put.
yet we still cannot predict with much accuracy where the hurricane will be in 72 hours.
The position at 1200 UTC was 18.1 N, 63.3 W (Link)
The 72-h forecast is here, and it was 18.2N, 61.8W. That positional error in 72 hours is 160 km, which as I recall is pretty average.
What kind of error will you accept, oh wise one?
Check out Windy.com for very well-presented current maps.
"What kind of error will you accept, oh wise one?"
160 km is the difference between the news story being over that night, or going on for days and weeks. And, no, they can't predict the climate in 72 years, they couldn't predict the climate ten years in advance. There is a lot of post-hoc crapola that purports that they have, but in fact the climate is at the extreme lowest area in terms of the "consensus" of climate models
95% of models agree that the observations are wrong.
That's a good thing unless you are a lefty who wants an excuse for the government to take over the economy.
I bet whoever produced the climate model that was closest to correct has been excoriated for being a denier.
Relocated to Jacksonville last summer from the Madison area. We had to evacuate for Mathew last fall but do not anticipate leaving for Irma. Gas has gone up in price and water is scarce but all other consumable supplies are still available as of this morning. Generators and other large items are hard to find. I just passed out our hurricane information packet to my employee's and we have been reviewing our business continuation plan as managers. I am just west of the inter coastal waterway and so storm surge is a minor possibility in our neighborhood if we are to close to the eye. Anxiety levels are higher this year than last due to the recent experience with Mathew but generally everybody just acknowledges that this is the reality of Florida.
@tim in Vermont, I'm talking about hurricane forecasts. If someone tells you a hurricane will be within 160 km of you in 3 days, that's information that can guide exactly what you need to do. I don't understand why DKWalser thinks that's not a good forecast.
Eye is 30 miles away.
Windy and rainy. Maybe a tropical storm strength or as we call it "a fresh breeze and showers"
Too early to put peggy lee on "is that all there is?"
John Henry
@John, Good luck. From a recent advisory:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
You're in the correct quadrant!
Irma seems to have gone right over the British Virgin Islands.
We are on the east coast of Florida. I just went outside and there's a giant bullseye overhead. I think that's a bad sign...
"We're in a commercial break."
Thanks for nothing.
I'm in the Fort Myers area, well inland. I don't have to worry about storm surge even in a Category 5. I did a minimal amount of preparation. I'll bring the outdoor stuff inside tomorrow. Like everyone else on the peninsula, I'm in the cone of uncertainty. The spaghetti models have been showing agreement on the likelihood of the storm going up the eastern side of the state. We aren't out of the woods yet on the Gulf side, of course, but it looks like we'll get the edge of the weak side of the storm at this point. Probably tropical storm force winds, maybe Category 1 at most, and lots of rain. I came through Wilma (a Category 2/3) in 2005 with only shingle damage, so if this is less than that, I'll be fine. Hopefully the power stays on.
Is that all ther is?
Let's start dancing let's break out yhe booze and jave a ball
It seems to have shifted north at the last minute probably a cat 1 ay mu house.
No damage to me and mine.
Thanks for all the good wishes
John Henry
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