Drudge dramatizes:
५ सप्टेंबर, २०१७
"Hurricane Irma grew into a dangerous Category 5 storm, the most powerful seen in the Atlantic in over a decade..."
"... and roared toward islands in the northeast Caribbean Tuesday on a path that could eventually take it to the United States" (AP).
Drudge dramatizes:
Drudge dramatizes:
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
पोस्ट्स
१७२ टिप्पण्या:
I'm in Florida. Not worried. That Burning Man guy took care of business.
Too bad we don't have the 150 BILLION dollars that Obama gave to Iran. Those funds would go a long way in rebuilding the hurricane damaged areas of OUR country.
@DBQ: All that money to Iran because ValJar grew up there.
God visited His wrath on Houston because they are apostates. They switched the Astros from the National League to the American League, embracing the Designated Hitter Heresy. They have not renounced their wicked ways.
I would not be surprised if this storm misses Florida and hits Houston again.
The Drug Smuggling into Miami will be shut down for weeks. People had better get their Cocaine supplies now before prices go up. But the Caribbean Cruises out of Florida are going to be wild rides at no extra cost.
Would be better if it hit Cuba, who could handle it, with their awesome healthcare.
The Antigua Met Service has a good Facebook feed, if you want to read from people right in harm's way. A bit of hyperbole in some of their posts, but that's to be expected when you're staring down a Cat 5.
DBQ,
That's small stuff. Rather than just keeping their previously confiscated dough, we should confiscate anything they have of value.
We could do a lot more building here if we took everything of value away from Iran.
And why stop there, any state sponsor of terror should have all of their value confiscated, we could really build cool stuff with all that dough.
Sharp thinkin'.
Like a Cat-5 storm has never hit the US. Maybe this will "inform" those foolish enough to invest millions in beachfront development.
Eliminate all federal subsidies for hurricane/storm insurance. Let those folks buy insurance from real insurance companies - if they can get it at all.
When it comes to hurricanes, Drudge suffers from CAT 5 emotional enuresis.
3rd grader said: That's small stuff. Rather than just keeping their previously confiscated dough, we should confiscate anything they have of value.
We could do a lot more building here if we took everything of value away from Iran.
And why stop there, any state sponsor of terror should have all of their value confiscated, we could really build cool stuff with all that dough.
Sharp thinkin'.
You said those things. Aren't you embarrassed? I don't believe you are as sharp of a thinker as you think you are.
Jason wrote: God visited His wrath on Houston because they are apostates. They switched the Astros from the National League to the American League, embracing the Designated Hitter Heresy. They have not renounced their wicked ways.
And then they played at Tropicana Park in Tampa, taking the curse east. The Minute Maid is not happy.
Eliminate all federal subsidies for hurricane/storm insurance.
I've got a better idea. In order to collect federal flood insurance, you have to sell the land to the federal government, and the land becomes a park, or better yet, flood control.
Appeasing radical Islamic Jew Hating nuclear bomb builders under the big lie "we owe them that money" - yeah, thanks Obama. That, of course, is why the payment was made in cash, secret, on pallets, media blackout. All above board - just like Clinton's secret server, and Russian Uranium deals that enriched the Clinton slush fund.
Should I feel bad because I voted for pro-hurricane Republicans?
"Too bad we don't have the 150 BILLION dollars that Obama gave to Iran. Those funds would go a long way in rebuilding the hurricane damaged areas of OUR country."
We can--and should--that that money (and much more) from the military and intelligence services budgets. It'd be a Win/Win! Money to rebuild here at home and the military and the spy agencies would have less money to do damage in the world.
"And why stop there, any state sponsor of terror should have all of their value confiscated...."
Would you sit still for another nation coming to the USA to collect?
If it hits New York will it be retaliation for New Yorkers' voting for Hillary?
Even though Irma will not enter the country "legally", Barack Obama has urged that it be allowed to stay in Florida for at least two years as part of a Deferred Action for Cyclone Arrivals policy.
I never pay attention to the touted winds speeds any longer- for the last 30 years there has been an escalation of what I suspect is pure exaggeration about that data point. I pay attention to the central pressure, and the last I saw on Irma was 931 mb measured- a very strong hurricane, but nowhere near the strongest ever measured- not even top twenty in the Atlantic basin.
Its GWB's fault
Drudge has descended to National Enquirer level.
Would you sit still for another nation coming to the USA to collect?
Thanks to our military and intelligence budgets, we don't have to worry about that.
"Would you sit still for another nation coming to the USA to collect?"
Only if the dough goes to a new, borderless, world government where the poor get everything that belongs to the rich.
This will be the year used by the climate hysterics to make you forget that the last decade was the calmest stretch of hurricanes in recorded history. The Earth has been getting greener, but it's becuase she's nauseous from from all that CO2 poisoning her. Who will hold her hair?
Would be better if it hit Cuba, who could handle it, with their awesome healthcare.
Here in Havana, the government is complete denial over this storm. No official notices to the public, not a word about preparations. I guess when you have nothing valuable to lose...
Florida already rejected a she-beast.
Must be global warming if it hasn't happened in a decade! Anyway, I will head back after, with whatever supplies my friends need, if it hits there.
Remember Matthew, last year? "GET OUT!" they said. What a dud. I spent more money running claims in South Carolina in its wake than I made. And drove over 7,000 miles in October getting there and back. Made it back in time to vote for Trump, however. You're welcome!
"Only if the dough goes to a new, borderless, world government where the poor get everything that belongs to the rich."
A borderless world government would be the tyranny to end all tyrannies.
There will be no escape or refuge or alternative.
bagoh20, exactly. A decade without serious hurricanes (not that anyone but "climate skeptics" has noticed), and eventually you get one, or two. Then we're off and running on global warming again.
buwaya,
There will be no escape or refuge or alternative.
Apart from the moon. Or Mars. But in general, yes.
But I heard that the moon is a harsh mistress.
I never pay attention to the touted winds speeds any longer- for the last 30 years there has been an escalation of what I suspect is pure exaggeration about that data point. I pay attention to the central pressure, and the last I saw on Irma was 931 mb measured- a very strong hurricane, but nowhere near the strongest ever measured- not even top twenty in the Atlantic basin.
The relationship between central pressure and wind is a function of latitude. So Irma at a lower latitude would have stronger winds than Irma at its current latitude.
The idea that wind speeds are exaggerated is pretty ignorant IMO. A better hypothesis would be that observation capabilities have improved.
Too bad we don't have the 150 BILLION dollars that Obama gave to Iran. Those funds would go a long way in rebuilding the hurricane damaged areas of OUR country.
This statement is utter nonsense. That was not US taxpayer money that was given to Iran, but Iranian funds that were frozen in various foreign accounts. Sanctions relief was always the leverage and virtually any deal would have included sanctions relief. Plus it was not a deal between Iran and the US but a deal brokered between Iran and China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany. Had no deal been reached, the sanctions program would have broken down and the money would have started going to Iran anyway. Plus, the $150 billion is the ceiling of estimates that ranged between $50 and $150 billion with $100 billion being the most agreed upon figured. And even then, that amount is relatively insignificant, since a sizable portion of would have to go to non-military spending in the country. To make a comparison, in the eight years that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was president, from 2005 to 2013, Iran earned approximately $800 billion in oil revenue. And even that did not significantly alter the balance of power in the region. As it stands even today, Iran has very limited ability to project military force outside of its borders. The GCC countries all have vastly better funded and more technologically advanced militaries. To draw just one comparison, Saudi Arabis' military spending per capita is $6,900; Iran's is about $153. Saudi Arabia spends about 10% of its GDP on the military; Iran spends about 3%.
After Wilma, my wife and decided to move out of Florida. No hurricanes have hit Ft. Lauderdale since we left. Until now?
PB said...
Like a Cat-5 storm has never hit the US. Maybe this will "inform" those foolish enough to invest millions in beachfront development.
You're hoping for it, aren't you?
"could"? It is hard to see an alternative.
God visited His wrath on Houston because they are apostates. They switched the Astros from the National League to the American League, embracing the Designated Hitter Heresy. They have not renounced their wicked ways.
Hard to argue with this. The DH is an abomination.
""After Wilma, my wife and decided to move out of Florida. "
Me too, four eye walls in two years, but I moved back, except for the worst months.
I am in East Tennessee for the fall, but Tampa is my primary residence. We're on the West Coast and therefore have some protection from Atlantic hurricanes coming from the east. We tend to worry more about ones in the Gulf of Mexico, but even then we are lucky to be protected by the Pinellas peninsula, which comprises the western border of Tampa Bay. Pinellas County residences are unfortunately not as lucky. In 2004, when we were pummeled by four big hurricanes during the season, Hurricane Charley was directly on track to pass through the narrow opening between the southern tip of the peninsula and the mainland and right into Tampa, which would have caused quite a bit of devastation to the downtown area and the high-end Bayshore Boulevard area. I remember the city being taken by surprise when there was a sudden shift in its track and it ended up making landfall much further south in Port Charlotte. I remember it being an odd experience that there was a lot of jubilation that we would mostly be spared the worst of it while simultaneously acknowledging that another community (and probably a less prepared one given the tracking) would bear the brunt of it.
I always liked the term "eye wall". Makes me think of a literal wall with eyes covering it, like something out of the D&D Monster Manual.
J Farmer said, "And even then, that amount is relatively insignificant, since a sizable portion of would have to go to non-military spending in the country. To make a comparison, in the eight years that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was president, from 2005 to 2013, Iran earned approximately $800 billion in oil revenue. And even that did not significantly alter the balance of power in the region. As it stands even today, Iran has very limited ability to project military force outside of its borders. The GCC countries all have vastly better funded and more technologically advanced militaries. To draw just one comparison, Saudi Arabis' military spending per capita is $6,900; Iran's is about $153. Saudi Arabia spends about 10% of its GDP on the military; Iran spends about 3%."
I'm sorry, but what? This is such BS critical analysis.
Let me start with each point:
1. "a sizable portion of would have to go to non-military spending in the country" - why? This is $100 billion in essentially discretionary funds. None of it HAS to go anywhere, and all of it can go to one place. This was not budgeted funds. It is entirely possible that most of it goes to military ends.
2. "To make a comparison, in the eight years that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was president, from 2005 to 2013, Iran earned approximately $800 billion in oil revenue." Ok, so this point says they make about $100 billion a year in oil revenue. So this is like doubling their entire oil industry revenue for one year. That's substantial.
3. "As it stands even today, Iran has very limited ability to project military force outside of its borders." Really? Is that why 6 countries invested years in negotiating a nuclear weapons agreement with Iran? Is that why we call Iran a terrorism-sponsoring state for it's direct and financial support of Hezbollah, among others?
4. "To draw just one comparison, Saudi Arabis' military spending per capita is $6,900; Iran's is about $153. Saudi Arabia spends about 10% of its GDP on the military; Iran spends about 3%." Whenever you mix statistics, it's usually evidence you are trying to frame a situation that does not support your viewpoint.
Iran spends $18 billion-ish on military with a population of 80 million; Saudi Arabia spends about $51 billion with a population of 33 million.
If Iran invests, say, $30 billion of the ~$100 billion unfrozen in military aims, that would represent almost 200% of their annual military spend.
So regardless of what statistics or assumptions you use to evaluate the unfreezing of those assets militarily, this is an enormous military boon for Iran.
"To draw just one comparison, Saudi Arabis' military spending per capita is $6,900; Iran's is about $153."
Saudi Arabia wastes a great deal of money on its military, trying to buy effectiveness with equipment that it cannot create through the professionalism or devotion of its warriors. Saudi Arabia's military is a paper tiger that is meant to scare, not fight. Not a lot of its men will die for its decadent rulers, and I think most people in the ME understand that.
Iran still has men who will die for its rulers.
So, is this instant karma for Florida? Can South Florida sue that knuckle prof for damages?
@TreeJoe:
1. - why? This is $100 billion in essentially discretionary funds. None of it HAS to go anywhere, and all of it can go to one place. This was not budgeted funds. It is entirely possible that most of it goes to military ends.
Who Benefits from Iran Sanctions Relief?
Ok, so this point says they make about $100 billion a year in oil revenue. So this is like doubling their entire oil industry revenue for one year. That's substantial.
No, that's not what point says. That revenue came during a time of much higher oil prices than we have today. The point is that when Iran was making significantly more in oil revenue than it is now, that money did not go all into the military and did not significantly affect Iran's position in the region. See the link above for discussion of where much of that oil revenue went.
Really? Is that why 6 countries invested years in negotiating a nuclear weapons agreement with Iran? Is that why we call Iran a terrorism-sponsoring state for it's direct and financial support of Hezbollah, among others?
Yes, the negotiations were to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which is a completely separate question from its conventional military capabilities. The fact that Iran has to rely on proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas is a demonstration of how limited their conventional military capability is, which is what I referenced. Further, Hezbollah and Hamas are very small players in the region. Both mainly exist to agitate Israel, and neither poses any significant threat or challenge to the GCC states, which are Iran's main rivals.
Whenever you mix statistics, it's usually evidence you are trying to frame a situation that does not support your viewpoint.
I did not mix statistics. I took two of the most prominent measures of military spending (i.e. per capita and percent GDP) and gave the figures for both countries, which is how comparisons are done, comparing like to live. Also, I am not sure where you got your figures, but the most frequent figures cites are $63 billion of Saudi Arabia and about $12 billion for Iran. I did not compare absolute totals because they are distorted by things like population size (the reason you use per capita numbers) and size of the economy (the reason you use % of GDP).
So regardless of what statistics or assumptions you use to evaluate the unfreezing of those assets militarily, this is an enormous military boon for Iran.
It is, in fact, not a boon. Part of the money will indeed go towards Iran's military, but it would not be anywhere near enough to close the gap in military capabilities between Saudi Arabia and the other GCC countries. And to repeat a point you did not address, if the negotiations broke down, the sanctions program would similarly break down, and most of the money would go to Iran anyway, with no agreement in place.
@buwaya:
Iran still has men who will die for its rulers.
Look at the amount of damage Iran endured in the Iran-Iraq War, and that was in a pretty much defensive war started by Iraq. To quote a report to the UK Parliament:
"What is less certain, and the subject of much debate, is the combat effectiveness of those forces. While many commentators consider Iran’s military to be capable of regional power projection and deterring or defending against conventional threats from some of Iran’s weaker neighbours in the region, its ability to project power beyond its immediate sphere of influence, against more militarily capable countries, and indeed defend its own borders and territory from superior military forces, has been regarded as questionable. As Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International studies has suggested:
'Iran is not a weakling, but neither is it capable of major aggression or becoming a regional “hegemon” if it meets effective resistance from its neighbors and the US.'
For the size of Iran’s armed forces, the requisite defence budget is small. In addition a significant percentage of Iran’s armed forces are conscripts who traditionally receive little military training and therefore possess marginal military effectiveness. A large part of Iran’s conventional arsenal is also Western, and particularly US-sourced. Consequently the ability to procure spare parts, in-service support, upgrades and training for that equipment has been minimal in the last few decades. Consequently much of Iran’s equipment inventory has degraded rapidly and is becoming increasingly obsolete."
Iran: Conventional Military Capabilities
Lefty chatter I'm hearing: hope beyond hope for a Mara Lago landfall. Of course, that would only help teh Dronald... but they don't seem to care because momentary schadenfreudegasim.
I hope it doesn't hit Mar a Lago directly for reasons of family safety a little inland, but there are some incredibly rich assholes along the water who probably could use a little humbling.
What was the military budget of Saudi sponsored Al Qaeda in 2001? "You people" still don't get the Sunni and Shia Comedy Hour.
I Got You, Babe
"Look at the amount of damage Iran endured in the Iran-Iraq War'
Iraq came close to losing, and would have without massive support (credit) from the Soviet Union, and that was before the Iraqi Shiites loyalties were separated out and the country dominated openly by its Sunni elite.
Note the ineffectiveness of the Saudi military in putting down the Houthi revolt in its neighbor. An open Iranian intervention in its soon-to-be Iraqi puppet state would be difficult to oppose.
The Arab shiekhdoms of the Persian Gulf are a house of cards. If the US were not their backstop they would all fall.
To be clear, Iran is perfectly correct in identifying the US as its greatest enemy.
The US backstop is the only factor preventing the creation of an Iranian empire, or at least a local Iranian hegemony.
Half a lifetime ago was working at a site in West Palm. Went to the Hurricane Bar for after-hour cooling, a carb boost and pain relief. Greatest dive bar ever. They had more than a dozen paintings of map view Cat 4 and Cat 5 Hurricane tracks and landfalls. In between, they had cartoonish lifesize paintings of patrons getting blown off their stools going ass over tea kettle. Thank Gia for refrigeration.
The idea that wind speeds are exaggerated is pretty ignorant IMO. A better hypothesis would be that observation capabilities have improved.
I believe we collect more reconnaissance data, yes. However, this year there's been much valid criticism of 'improvements' made to the US model as it relates to extrapolation of pressures and speeds.
Anyone who wishes a Cat-5 landfall (or even Cat-4, -3, -2, -1) on anyone else is an asshole.
If you don't like someone that much, just kill them. Why wish for such collateral damage? Anyway, how can you be sure the person you want to see damage inflicted upon isn't going to up and evacuate?
If you are ocean front within fifty miles of Mar a Lago, you can afford to be well away. You should meet some of those people before you get too worked up though. Riviera Beach, which is poor and heavily black is five or ten miles north and just west of the intrcoastal
Those people don't need more trouble.
Nor do any of the working-class neighborhoods mostly west of 95. I was just kidding, BTW. I wish is would head out to sea.
I still wish Irma would turn due north and hit New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and New England. Let's see whether progressive-voting wimps and weenies can rally the way Texans can.
Fort Myers area here, well inland. My neighborhood isn't even in color on the storm surge maps. I'm like most people, knowing that it's probably going to hit somebody and hoping that it will be someone else. That's human nature. I'm still hoping that it makes the right turn before it hits Florida and goes out to sea, but that's probably a vain hope. Otherwise, it's batten down the hatches come Sunday and ride it out. The storm is so large that even if the center misses us by a long way, we're still gonna get a lot of wind and rain. I came through Wilma back in 2005 with shingles blown off my roof and power out for six days. This one could be worse...
I still wish Irma would turn due north and hit New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and New England. Let's see whether progressive-voting wimps and weenies can rally the way Texans can.
Wow.
@buwaya:
Note the ineffectiveness of the Saudi military in putting down the Houthi revolt in its neighbor.
Regarding Saudi Arabia's foolish, destructive effort in Yemen, it is merely a replay of what we have seen over and over for many decades. Assymetric warfare and the ability of indigenous guerrilla fighters to confound foreign military forces. See the American Revolution, for example. That is a completely separate question than traditional nation-state warfare. The primary reason for the British victory in the Malayan Emergency was that much of the insurgency was driven by Chinese Malays, who were largely detested by the majority ethnic Malay population. See Alistair Horne's A Savage War of Peace for a discussion of similar themes during the Algerian War.
An open Iranian intervention in its soon-to-be Iraqi puppet state would be difficult to oppose.
To call Iraq a "puppet state" of Iran is a massive overstatement. If anything, over time, as Shia governance in Iraq matures and the threat from Sunni forces like ISIS to the west subside, Iraq is likely to become more independent of Iran, not more dependent. Also, to a degree, Iraq will begin to act as a counterweight to Iran as Shia Arabs begin to look more towards Arab Iraq than Persian Iran. Further, for Iraq to maintain its influence in Iraq, it is in Iran's interest for the state to be unified, as opposed to only having influence in a smaller, weaker Shia-only state. This will further constrain Iran's ability to influence Iraq since it will inevitably have to consider the sizable Sunni Arab and Sunni Kurdish portions of the country.
The US backstop is the only factor preventing the creation of an Iranian empire, or at least a local Iranian hegemony.
Iran has nowhere near the capabilities to become an "empire" or even a "local...hegemony." On any significant measure of national power, Iran lags far behind nearly every major power in the region. Nuclear-armed Sunni Pakistan to its east and regional power Turkey would both be major obstacles to such a development, even if we ignore the GCC countries.
That was not US taxpayer money that was given to Iran
Except for the money owed to American citizens that were pursuing legal claims against Iran for expropriation damages, etc., etc. Nice for Obama to give away their money.
@Darrell:
Except for the money owed to American citizens that were pursuing legal claims against Iran for expropriation damages, etc., etc. Nice for Obama to give away their money.
One more time, the money released to Iran as part of the nuclear deal was held in foreign banks and financial institutions, mostly in China, Japan, and South Korea, with smaller amounts in Turkey and India. US courts would never have had any jurisdiction over these funds.
Irene hit mountainous and lightly populated Vermont, washing ou roads and bridges that were the only way in or out of some communities. Did a lot of damage, but because the damage wasn't un NYC, there wasn't much covefe of the story. Vermonters handled it well and appreciated the windfall of free firewood.
Tropical Storm Irma is expected to make its 15th landfall near Milwaukee's Bradford Beach in two weeks.
"gadfly said...
Tropical Storm Irma is expected to make its 15th landfall near Milwaukee's Bradford Beach in two weeks."
Good thing the kids are back in school.
NB: Ear plugs is an overlooked item that you need when a hurricane spends a day coming over your area. You will thank me.
"what we have seen over and over for many decades. Assymetric warfare and the ability of indigenous guerrilla fighters to confound foreign military forces."
The ability to generate effective indigenous guerrilla fighters is one of those things that Napoleons rule about the moral to the material applies very well. It is why ISIS was so extremely effective, beating or withstanding odds of three to one or even ten to one, while being behind in technological and logistical force multipliers by some extreme amount besides.
The Iranians and their proxies have this moral advantage vs their state-level opponents in the region, and I don't think anyone there discounts it.
I doubt the Shiite portion of the Iraqi state has got it together, or can put it together, or can keep it together, vs Iran, without a US backstop. In 2014, left alone, their forces broke and fled vs an ISIS column they outnumbered locally by at least five-to-one, and with massively greater firepower and hundreds of armored vehicles versus pick-up trucks. That was a test of the Shiite state, and it failed. It was lucky for them that ISIS had less than a thousand men. If they had had ten thousand they would have overrun the whole country.
And neither I think can the Sheikhdoms, or Saudi, and they know it.
Blogger Big Mike said...
"I still wish Irma would turn due north and hit New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and New England. Let's see whether progressive-voting wimps and weenies can rally the way Texans can."
---------------------
"Anyone who wishes a Cat-5 landfall (or even Cat-4, -3, -2, -1) on anyone else is an asshole."
And then they played at Tropicana Park in Tampa, taking the curse east. The Minute Maid is not happy.
Clever tactic!
@buwaya:
The Iranians and their proxies have this moral advantage vs their state-level opponents in the region, and I don't think anyone there discounts it.
Which proxies are you referring to? It's certainly not ISIS, which are enemies of Iran and to which Iran has been working to destroy. You also left out that a big part of ISIS' success has to do with the funding and support of radical salafist groups in places like Syria by countries like Saudi Arabia. US efforts to deteriorate Syrian state power has also been a help to ISIS. As I said before, Iran's proxies--Hezbollah and Hamas--are almost entirely focused on agitating Israel and do not present any significant challenge to regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ISIS has only been able to operate in countries where state power, thanks to sectarianism, has lost control (e.g. western Iraq, Syria, Libya). ISIS' attempted incursions into Lebanon were repelled, for example, and Lebanon is much weaker militarily than most other countries in the region.
@Henry:
And then they played at Tropicana Park in Tampa, taking the curse east. The Minute Maid is not happy.
Small correction: Tropicana park is in St. Petersburg, not Tampa. Local residents really hate when people confuse the two cities. 813 vs 727. I used to see teenage gang members every day with one or the other area code tattooed on their bodies.
@Farmer, it's going to make landfall somewhere. Should I put you in the group that hopes it hits Florida? Or are you on the group that hopes it crosses the Gulf and pounds Houston a second time?
"You also left out that a big part of ISIS' success has to do with the funding and support of radical salafist groups in places like Syria by countries like Saudi Arabia."
There is an element of that, but that funding did not give ISIS armored divisions and aircraft. In the case of Mosul in 2014 it gave them less than a thousand men with good infantry weapons and a convoy of pickup trucks. Against them there were tens of thousands of soldiers and security personnel, backed by artillery and armor and unlimited ammunition. Those tens of thousands of mostly Shiite soldiers, most of whom had been recruited and trained by the US, broke and fled or surrendered and were slaughtered. Those thousand men simply murdered something like five or six thousand prisoners who would not defend themselves.
Taking Mosul back, when the Iraqis finally got around to it, took nine months at odds of eight to ten-to-one (and an immense firepower advantage), with very heavy casualties. Every other fight of the ISIS war has had similar disproportions of forces.
I'm on the northeast corner of Puerto Rico. 100' up and nothing between me and the water. Just in back of Puerto Del Rey Marina if you want to see it in Google earth.
My son and I have spent the day putting up storm panels and aren't finished yet. I have metal panels pre-made but it has been 20 years since I put them up, they fit in a particular order and the order marked on the panes has faded to nothingness.
This will be my 3rd Cat4-5 in this house. In 89 and 98 the eyes of Hugo and Georges passed right over the house. Hurricane winds in both directions. Lots of damage in Hugo, very little in Georges cuz I was better prepared. No power or running water for 4-5 weeks.
If I don't comment for a while, you can assume I am gone with the wind. Oh, wait. I can't say that, can I? Isn't it racist? If I am microgressing anyone, you can go fuck yourselves.
Supposed to hit us tomorrow PM but is shifting a bit north, just a bit and not enough but every thing helps.
Live from Fajardo, the windy city. So far.
John Henry
A decade without serious hurricanes (not that anyone but "climate skeptics" has noticed), and eventually you get one, or two. Then we're off and running on global warming again.
Ha, and we'll just pretend like there's no other evidence.
@Big Mike:
@Farmer, it's going to make landfall somewhere. Should I put you in the group that hopes it hits Florida? Or are you on the group that hopes it crosses the Gulf and pounds Houston a second time?
I don't hope it hits anywhere. And I find the entire notion pretty repugnant.
"Take from the rich and give to the poor until there are no rich no more..." and then there will be no production, and no food, and massive starvation and death. See Venezuela.
"Ha, and we'll just pretend like there's no other evidence. "
The argument from that side is that we are seeing more and greater "extreme weather events", for which there is no evidence.
@buwaya:
Every other fight of the ISIS war has had similar disproportions of forces.
I gave you the example of Lebanon earlier, where the Lebanese Army repelled ISIS from Arsal within five days. ISIS was similarly routed between July and August of this year near the Syria-Lebanese border. As for Mosul, the problem is one I have been discussing since before the Iraq War in 2003. A predominantly Shia army would rather desert than die in a town that they have little cultural or historical connection to. One of the reasons that ISIS was able to flourish in predominantly Sunni Mosul is because of the alienation from majority Shia Baghdad. Even to this day, many Mosul residents are suspicious of Shia militias operating in the area. ISIS' victories in Iraq have much more to do with politics than with military prowess. Even at the height of ISIS' control over Iraqi territory, it had virtually no presence in the Shia eastern or southern portions of the country.
@Farmer, do you don't like living in the real world? Good to know.
@Big Mike:
@Farmer, do you don't like living in the real world? Good to know.
No, I don't like living in a cruel world. But I do accept it. You, apparently, are happy to emblematize it.
Blogger Big Mike said...
@Farmer, it's going to make landfall somewhere. Should I put you in the group that hopes it hits Florida? Or are you on the group that hopes it crosses the Gulf and pounds Houston a second time?
...
The current GFS model shows a likelihood of the eye not making landfall, but heading hard N then NE after brushing Cuba. But it's hard to understand the geek stuff at the WX sites, just going by the screen grabs of the current simulation. The other models (Euro, Canada and Navy) are not dissimilar, they all show it peeling off. Bwtfdik
The world isn't cruel; it just doesn't care.
@sodal ye, the Euro model has been very accurate in the past. Do you have a link where I can see what it says?
@Big Mike:
The world isn't cruel; it just doesn't care.
Perhaps we mean different things by "the world." But if hoping for natural disasters striking specific locales is your kink, more power to you.
Farmer, what is it with you and Iran? Iran is developing nuclear weapons, if they haven't actually developed them already. The Iranian military has investigated the possibility of an EMP attack on the US, and discovered that it would be a relatively simple matter to bring a ship within a few dozen miles of the Atlantic Coast and launch a warhead on one of the missles they already have. Exploding several hundred miles above the central US, it would produce an EMP shock that would destroy or damage most of the nation's electrical grid. It might be years before the damage was repaired, as most large electrical equipment is no longer produced in the US. The Iranian Navy has recently begun conducting operations in the Atlantic. If you know all that other bullshit you're waving around, you undoubtedly know all of the above. And here you are, babbling some insipid gibberish about the fucking Saudis, the biggest sack of limpdick afunctional military nobodies on Earth. Are you a paid agent of the Iranian government? Or you just get a kick out spreading ridiculous lies? What do you think the Iranians are developing a bomb and ICBMs for, to weed their gardens?
Do you have a link where I can see what it [the Euro] says?
The College of DuPage Weather website has models on it, and the Euro out to 7 days is one of them. Link.
The main difference between the Euro and GFS model in the past 24-36 hours has been: Where does the storm turn north? Euro says it goes up the W. coast of FL, GFS has a more up the E. coast of FL track.
In either case, coastal inundation on the east coast of FL running all the way up to Hatteras seems likely to me given the strong High forecast to be over the northeast US.
nice, thanks for sharing
http://limbuwankingdom.blogspot.com
Scott Adams says praying for Hurricane victims after the storm has passed over is too late.
He has a point. Christians need to fast and pray now that Irma turns east and goes out to sea. Our God is good at Passovers.
They switched the Astros from the National League to the American League, embracing the Designated Hitter Heresy. They have not renounced their wicked ways.
You got it!
Like a Cat-5 storm has never hit the US.
Yep.
Even though Irma will not enter the country "legally", Barack Obama has urged that it be allowed to stay in Florida for at least two years as part of a Deferred Action for Cyclone Arrivals policy.
Don't quit your day job!
Here in Havana, the government is complete denial over this storm. No official notices to the public, not a word about preparations. I guess when you have nothing valuable to lose...
It's in Granma - that doesn't count?
http://www.granma.cu/cuba/2017-09-05/nota-informativa-no-1-del-estado-mayor-nacional-de-la-defensa-civil-sobre-el-huracan-irma-05-09-2017-15-09-33
Teniendo en cuenta las características de este evento hidrometeorológico extremo y trayectoria pronosticada, se decidió establecer la Fase Informativa para las provincias de Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguín, Las Tunas, Camagüey, Ciego de Ávila, Sancti Spíritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara y Matanzas a partir de las 15:00 horas del día de hoy
De acuerdo con la información del Centro de Pronósticos del Instituto de Meteorología, el intenso huracán Irma con categoría cinco en la escala Saffir-Simpson, continúa intensificándose y mantendrá rumbo oeste en las próximas 12 a 24 horas a razón de 22 kilómetros por hora, lo que significa un peligro potencial para Cuba.
Los órganos y organismos estatales, entidades económicas e instituciones sociales de las provincias que se encuentran en Fase Informativa deben cumplir las medidas previstas en sus respectivos planes de reducción de desastres con racionalidad.
Se orienta a la población mantenerse atenta a las informaciones del Instituto de Meteorología y la Defensa Civil y cumplir disciplinadamente las medidas que se indiquen por las autoridades locales.
Ha, and we'll just pretend like there's no other evidence. Bingo.
Can't we just pay the rebuilding costs for those who believe in climate change? Joking of course, but at some point the people on the east coast should look at relocating to North Dakota or someplace equally pleasant.
Blogger MadisonMan said:
he College of DuPage Weather website has models on it, and the Euro out to 7 days is one of them. Link.
Bar none, that was the coolest weather site I ever saw, except it's a big time waster.
This is insanely cool
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80
Be patient, busy
Can't we just pay the rebuilding costs for those who believe in climate change?
Do you know somebody who doesn't believe in climate change? For me, there was a mile thick sheet of ice right over the spot I am typing this from only ten thousand years ago or so. Turns out that there is no trend in landfalling hurricanes, and one of the biggest skeptical voices right now is Dr Judith Curry, formerly of Georgia Tech, who made her career studying hurricanes and started out a big believer and became skeptical since none of the predicted effects on hurricanes have happened at all whatsoever.
But if hoping for natural disasters striking specific locales is your kink, more power to you.
Shouldn't that be "less power to you"?
They always curve north and away, like one of my slices, until they don't. Andrew came in like a laser beam.
@tim in vermont. Nice metaphor. Funny because it is true. It would be interesting if a consequence of climate change was more fall high pressure in the southeast acting as a firewall against increasingly scary hurricanes.
@Jupiter:
Farmer, what is it with you and Iran?
Nothing is with me and Iran except a desire not to see the US pursue more foolish military adventurism.
Iran is developing nuclear weapons, if they haven't actually developed them already.
No evidence for this whatsoever. The Trump administration, which has been extremely hostile to the nuclear deal from the beginning, recently certified that Iran has been in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
And here you are, babbling some insipid gibberish about the fucking Saudis, the biggest sack of limpdick afunctional military nobodies on Earth.
Tell that to the massive destruction of infrastructure and thousands of dead civilians in Yemen courtesy of the Saudi Air Force. On what measure is the Iranian military ahead of the Saudi regime. The Iranians have not fought a war in 30 years, and when they did, they were basically defeated and suffered a tremendous toll.
Are you a paid agent of the Iranian government?
That you have to resort to such ridiculous rhetoric should tell you something about the strength of your counterargument.
Or you just get a kick out spreading ridiculous lies?
Name one lie I've told.
What I have done is quoted and linked to lengthy reports from organizations like RAND that analyze and assess Iran's military capability. If you want to take issue with them, read them and tell me what they got wrong.
@tim in vermont:
Shouldn't that be "less power to you"?
No. Text just doesn't convey the sarcastic tone in which it should be read in one's head.
Blogger J. Farmer said...
@Darrell:
Except for the money owed to American citizens that were pursuing legal claims against Iran for expropriation damages, etc., etc. Nice for Obama to give away their money.
One more time, the money released to Iran as part of the nuclear deal was held in foreign banks and financial institutions, mostly in China, Japan, and South Korea, with smaller amounts in Turkey and India. US courts would never have had any jurisdiction over these funds.
If the US Courts did not have access (or the ability to freeze that money), how did Obama release it? Why wasn't Iran spending that money to begin with? Explain that to me. Or stick with the Leftist script. Somebody other than Leftists will believe it someday.
@Darrell:
If the US Courts did not have access (or the ability to freeze that money), how did Obama release it? Why wasn't Iran spending that money to begin with? Explain that to me. Or stick with the Leftist script. Somebody other than Leftists will believe it someday.
If the US Courts did not have access (or the ability to freeze that money), how did Obama release it?
Obama didn't release it. It was released because sanctions relief was part of Iran's deal with the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany.
Why wasn't Iran spending that money to begin with?
Because sanctions passed by the Security Council kept the money frozen in foreign banks and financial accounts so that Iran could not get to it. The purpose of these sanctions were to compel Iran to the negotiating table. Had the US walked away from negotiations, the sanctions would have broken down and the money would have gone to Iran anyway. With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about.
Arms control is a scam like professional wrestling
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/903375105572708359
This guy is a Cato researcher and Watts Up With That contributor, so you deniers should agree with him. It's great one-stop shopping for Irma.
Ryan Maue Hurricane Twitter Feed
Tropical Tidbits is great for Hurricanes too, especially 'cause it has the recon data.
"Christians need to fast"
Hell yah. Ketosis.
Hey-Zues loves ketones....and endless torture for folks who don't suck his hog, figuratively, obviously.
Wow, thinking about Irma in terms of wanting it to hit or not hit, imo, is missing the main opportunity to look at it and each one for the epicness of the display.
For just one thing, it's like our galaxy in many ways, it looks virtually the same. It has a complex and contradictory centre, physically inconsistent, yet driving the whole. And a hurricane tells us how the galaxy came to be the way it behaves. The eye versus a black hole, achieving the same effect, but being so radically different. It's a display of stuff we should be sensitive to.
You lawyers are ghouls.
It does show how arrogant to think we are masters of this world,
"it's like our galaxy in many ways, it looks virtually the same. It has a complex and contradictory centre, physically inconsistent, yet driving the whole. And a hurricane tells us how the galaxy came to be the way it behaves. The eye versus a black hole, achieving the same effect, but being so radically different. It's a display of stuff we should be sensitive to."
The galaxy isn't driven by the center, or anything that we can see/detect(directly). Hurricanes don't have dark matter (not to mention dark energy). It's been a long time since we realized that galaxies don't act like storms on our planet. So, being sloppy about this, even among lawyers, isn't a good idea. IMHO.
@tim, sorry.
Not that we can see or directly see a super massive black hole, either.
But, even accounting for that mass/energy at the center of a galaxy, we know that there are non-center based forces that (among other things) cause the outer spirals to move faster than inner stars relative to the center-based forces associated w/ the supposed black hole.
Anywho, galaxy not= hurricane.
NPR - Don't
trust it.
Blogger Big Mike said...
The world isn't cruel; it just doesn't care.
...
Whoa. It's not that bleak. Maybe the rocky world doesn't care. But somehow, biologically, here we are, the best thing the world ever did. That's something to celebrate. We're the guests of honour. Why complain that it's not a forever party, we were invited and it's fun! if you want it to be.
oops, sorry.
We can--and should--that that money (and much more) from the military and intelligence services budgets. It'd be a Win/Win! Money to rebuild here at home and the military and the spy agencies would have less money to do damage in the world.
Cookie is wondering if he should study Chinese of Arabic.
He does realize the winds for the eye not the other way around, the strongest storms hit in 1929 and 1935, when the defense budget was on the downslope.
Been out of the country on business for 3 weeks. Thought I'd stop in and check on the comments.
I noted J Farmer - the guy that literally knows everything - is back and dominating the threads with his boring and patronizing expose on why everybody is wrong about everything.
No thanks ...
I wanted to read up on Iran and instinct told me an Althouse item on Irma would get me there.
@Todd Roberson:
I noted J Farmer - the guy that literally knows everything - is back and dominating the threads with his boring and patronizing expose on why everybody is wrong about everything.
A few things. (1) It was not me who introduced the topic of Iran into the discussion; it was Dust Bunny Queen and chickelit. I merely answered them with a single post. (3) Had no one else returned to the subject, it would have ended there. I also wrote a similar length comment on my own experiences with Florida hurricanes. (4) At least four other commenters decided to talk about Iran, as well, and even then they are the minority of the comments posted, so "dominating" may be a bit strong of a word. Many other commenters carried on with their own topics with no issue. (5) I certainly don't know everything and don't presume that "everybody is wrong about everything." (6) Nonetheless, I have a point of view and am willing to defend it. (7) While I disagree with many regular commenters here about a number of issues, I never seem compelled to hurl personal insults at them. (8) Strangely, when I am with the majority of the commenters on things like immigration, SJWs, or the establishment's hysteria over Trump, the insults on my character seem to come from a whole different set of commenters.
Judge a storm not by its color but by its character.
"Judge a storm not by its color but by its character."
Sure, judge them by their character, but also judge them by their gender.
Gals.
Only a small part is really devastating, and it's no good just trashing an island that's already ruins. Video is the point. Snapped palm trees isn't going to draw any eyeballs.
Just planning the news event.
Hurricanes are like women. When they arrive the're wet and wild, and when they're gone you have no house and no car.
- Larry Kenney
The best eyeball video for the common man is visiting the local private plane airport. Usually a few planes will break free from tie-downs and land on other airplanes.
It's easier than finding a house being smashed by a tree or something.
Like a Hurricane - Heather Nova (channeling Neil Young)
Blogger 3rdGradePB_GoodPerson said...
The galaxy isn't driven by the center, or anything that we can see/detect(directly). Hurricanes don't have dark matter (not to mention dark energy). It's been a long time since we realized that galaxies don't act like storms on our planet. So, being sloppy about this, even among lawyers, isn't a good idea. IMHO.
...
Wow.
Oh man sometimes you have to explain to morons. No, the original galaxy driver was gravity. The biggest lump in the area. Now that has changed from the same attraction inwards to a force of dimensionally different properties, but still gravity. A hurricane starts as a localized updraft (simplified) more powerful than a bunch of updrafts around it, the behaviour is like gravity that way in that creates a similar radial outcome, but a different influencer.
The point was that in a a hurricane, you get the opportunity to see a huge event that is so similar to a bigger huge event, and get into the details of both in your mind, a rare opportunity.
But you're a ghoul.
The ice ages would have been great disaster news, not to mention the asteroid strikes, but that was before the news business.
But they'd have gone on for months and months about it.
Fine sodal,
Stick w/ saying that looking at the formation of hurricane is an opportunity to see an event that is so similar to the formation of a galaxy.
You sure showed me.
"The point was that in a a hurricane, you get the opportunity to see a huge event [hurricane] that is so similar to a bigger huge event [formation of a galaxy]"
MadisonMan,
I have been watching hurricanes on this same path since the late 70s- Irma's pressure is higher than at least 10 of them over that time, and there are other that formed in the Gulf that were at the same latitude that also had lower pressures and winds reported at the time.
Sure, maybe in the past the wind speeds were under-estimated based on satellite images, but they still measure these things by actually flying into the storms, and the equipment used to take the measurements aren't any different in those cases than they were 40 years ago. I just find it somewhat of a giveaway that the wind estimates creep up over time, but the pressure measurement made by aircraft and the radio sondes show no corresponding change.
@J Farmer at 9:13 PM:
You need not offer justifications for any of the comments you post. They're always intelligent and well-stated. This, in itself, distinguishes them from most of the comments and commenters here. You are also unfailingly polite, and you refrain from insults or name-calling, which makes you almost unique here. If others don't like your comments, it's because they're imbeciles. (See? I can't claim to be unfailingly polite or to refrain from insults...though I do try.)
If I'm reading the graphs right, there was just a high-X class solar flare, almost above X, for which there is no name. I'd assume that's huge.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
It causes radio blackouts by ionizing lower levels of the ionosphere where the mean free path is shorter so radio waves lose energy to collisions.
Unrelated a coronal mass ejection from a few days ago may produce aurora tonight.
I hope Althouse and Meade are enjoying their trip, and are staying away from the hurricane.
I am Laslo.
A return to normal.
@J Farmer at 9:13 PM:
You need not offer justifications for any of the comments you post. They're always intelligent and well-stated.
Not always 100% correct, ;^) but I had to highlight an occasion where I agree with Cookie.
If banks can hold onto Iran's money electronically - with the permission of the mighty UN, what was the purpose of secret millions in cash on pallets - delivered to Iran ...in secret?
Hope John Henry weathers the storm safely in Fajardo. Nice neighborhood and view, judging from Google maps.
(I spent a good chunk of my life in typhoon/hurricane country. One really learns to appreciate that rebar reinforced concrete-filled concrete block construction.)
"If banks can hold onto Iran's money electronically - with the permission of the mighty UN, what was the purpose of secret millions in cash on pallets - delivered to Iran ...in secret?"
-- It was part of what we gave up in the Iran deal. Parts of which were kept secret for the same reason Obama kept lots of stuff secret, because he thought it would cost him politically.
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I am Laslo.
Why does just about everything on the D-side feel like a secret tarmac meeting with Bill Clinton?
Total media black-out on Wasserman's IT guy. No jokes from late night TV comics.
"Total media black-out on Wasserman's IT guy. No jokes from late night TV comics."
-- I can understand the no jokes part. I mean, "stealing from the government and sending a bunch of money to who knows where" doesn't line itself up for jokes compared to hiking the Appalachian trail.
I'm sure if an (R) had an IT guy who was arrested by the FBI, we'd be hearing about it with jokes from the late night TV comics.
Footage from St. Martin. Not good.
@Dickin'Bimbos@Home:
If banks can hold onto Iran's money electronically - with the permission of the mighty UN, what was the purpose of secret millions in cash on pallets - delivered to Iran ...in secret?
That money was a separate issue from sanctions. That figure resulted from claims dating back to 1979 and negotiated through the Iran-US Claims Tribunal. The payment was made in cash, in European currencies, due to sanctions against US dollars and Iran being frozen out of the international banking system.
You know where else there is a media blackout? The Charlottesville investigation. I keep waiting for more details, so I will have a better idea of what to think, nothing. How did he plead? Don't know.
My sister just texted that she and her daughter have fled Port Charlotte, FL for higher ground in NC. Her husband is hanging around as he is a first responder. They suffered significant damage from Charley in 2004. She remembers it well.
Wouldn't it be great if Trump pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if Trump pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if you sent a couple hundred?
"The payment was made in cash, in European currencies, due to sanctions against US dollars and Iran being frozen out of the international banking system."
Yes, but why ?
It is probably subsidizing the Nork nuclear program.
Wouldn't it be great if Trump pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
I expect he will. You could send $100 like I did to JJ Watt's program which is now over $20 million.
Here, that will help you find it.
Wouldn't it be great if you sent a couple hundred?
Ha! And wouldn't it be great if you knew what I did or didn't do before shooting off your mouth, doctor?
And you ... you contributed like Trump?
Wouldn't it be great if Obama pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if George Clooney pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if the Clintons pledged $1 million of their personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if Bezos pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
I could go on....
Had a lot of wind and rain this morning but calm now. 4-6 hours away from touchdown but it has moved north a bit. Enough? Who knows?
We'll see in a couple hours.
John Henry
Tcrosse @ 9:50. - leftists don't give, they take.
Where is Clinton Foundation money for these hurricane clean-ups?
Clintons don't help, they rape. Ask Haiti.
"Wouldn't it be great if Trump pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?"
Wouldn't it great if commie-pinko liberals would quit telling other people how to spend their money?
So Obama paid the Mullahs for money owed to Iran dating back to 1979. Using pallets and hard currency.
It's good to be an Islamic Mullah during the Obama years.
Blogger Brookzene said...
Wouldn't it be great if Trump pledged $1 million of his personal money to help clean up after Irma?
Wouldn't it be great if you put your money where your mouth is.
Wouldn't it be great if Brookzene added me to his/her checking account. I could do a lot of good with it.
Trust me Brookzene, I know what's best for you.
Brookzene spouts classic liberal drivel ...... and doesn't get it. Beautiful, just beautiful.
@Dickin'Bimbos@Home:
So Obama paid the Mullahs for money owed to Iran dating back to 1979. Using pallets and hard currency.
It's good to be an Islamic Mullah during the Obama years.
Claims through the IUSCT have been going on since 1983. At least 38 volumes detailing these cases have been published since 1993. This includes claims against Iran by private US interests who have received over $2.5 billion in awards through the Trubunal. Inter-governmental claims between Iran and the US are still being adjudicated. The use of cash was itself a result of the sanctions in place against Iran.
@Michael K:
Yes, but why?
It was an awarded judgment made by the Iran-US Claims Tribunal in The Hague.
@Robert Cook:
@J Farmer at 9:13 PM:
You need not offer justifications for any of the comments you post.
Thanks for the kind words.
@brookzene: What a petty, selfish asshole you made yourself into here.
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