"If we don't begin releasing now, the volume of uncontrolled water around the dams will be higher and have a greater impact on the surrounding communities," said Col. Lars Zetterstrom, commander of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Galveston District. He warned residents to stay vigilant as water levels rise....Government choices, aiming the flow of the floodwater.
"It's going to be better to release the water through the gates directly into Buffalo Bayou as opposed to letting it go around the end and through additional neighborhoods and ultimately into the bayou," he said.
२८ ऑगस्ट, २०१७
"In Houston, reservoirs swollen by rain from Hurricane Harvey were opened early Monday, a move that was expected to flood more homes..."
"... but one that the Army Corps of Engineers says is needed to limit the scope of the disaster that's threatening lives and property in Texas," NPR reports.
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Here we go again.
What idiot thought it would be a good idea to put a bayou in the middle of a city?!?
Is it time to start dynamiting the levees?
Some might say "opening the floodgates".
Both Gov. Abbott (R) and Secretary Rick Perry (R) have refused to criticize Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) for his refusal to order an evacuation of the city. A classy move.
http://nypost.com/2017/08/28/houston-mayor-defends-decision-not-to-evacuate-ahead-of-harvey/
Apparently we have moved into the assigning blame phase of the disaster. Always the most productive phase.
People forget that everything has multiple effects. Using dams to modify flooding don't eliminate flooding. Up to a point, they may do a very good job, after that point? They do a very bad job.
Advance evacuation sounds great - until you read that some 100 people died during the gridlocked evacuation for Hurricane Rita (2005) before the storm actually hit:
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hurricane-Rita-anxiety-leads-to-hellish-fatal-6521994.php
They're doing more damage by cracking down on price-gouging.
That guarantees you can't get what you need.
People will buy it all up on a whim, and nobody will bring more in from outside.
@MisterBuddwig. Read your link. It appears the lack of an evacuation plan was the problem.
“state, county and city officials were unprepared.” The haphazard evacuation plan – no contraflow lanes; inadequate policies to keep gas flowing – created bedlam."
One would think they might had a plan in place by now. But then we talking about a large city government.
Listening to residents being interviewed this morning, they indicated they would have fled the scene had they known this flooding was going to be this bad.
If you don't know about price gouging and disasters, see (listen to)
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2007/01/munger_on_price_1.html
Mike Munger on econtalk long ago.
My favorite Rush-streaming radio station is in Houston
http://newstalk1290.com/listen-live/popup/
They seem to be pretty laid-back about it all.
Listening to residents being interviewed this morning, they indicated they would have fled the scene had they known this flooding was going to be this bad.
Part of the problem, no? Nobody knows ahead of time exactly how bad things are going to be.
Buffalo Bayou is the name of the central River on which Houston was founded. Think of it as the Mississippi River. The cities built along it needed the river for transport.
I recall commenters on this blog talking about this storm being a 'dud' on Friday as it came ashore, no one called them out on it.
Yet now we are blaming people for not evacuating?
Typical Althouse blog hypocrisy.
Feminine wash is apparently a euphemism for douche, speaking of floods.
Where did they focus-group that.
Mark
Plenty of people evacuated. They didn't have to be told or ordered. The smart people that is. The dumb ones are angry that they are dumb.
Mark, one of the commenters that was discussing the "dud" actually lives in the area. If I remember correctly, it was a dud up to that point, which it was. Only the outer edges had arrived. Hopefully that commenter is okay. I suspect we will not be hearing from the commenter for a while.
That said, hindsight is always 20/20. If the authorities had known this storm would be this bad, they would have evacuated. Storms like this are hard to predict. Sometimes the storm of the century drops a few inches of rain and knocks down a few trees and moves on. Sometimes the storm of the century produces a disaster of Biblical proportions.
I do suspect that some of this is bitterness of Hurricane Katrina. New Orleans refused to evacuate until the very last minute and then botched the execution, the governor refused to treat the disaster properly apparently for political reasons despite the federal government basically begging her to do so, the levees fail after decades of corruption that diverted the money to maintain them, the media goes full Weekly World News with fabricated stories, and somehow that is all Bush's fault. They see the same game being played here. At this point I cannot say they are wrong, though I would be pleased to be surprised in that regard.
The Republicans all evacuated after their governor suggested they should.,
The democrats obeyed their Mayor who said don't pay attention to that white Governor. "Local" officials know best.
To the subject at hand, the situation is already a disaster. There is no avoiding that. It is simply a matter now of mitigating it. The water is going to exit the reservoirs one way or the other. All you can do is try to guide it to where it does the least damage.
Of course, I'm sure some idiots are busy determining if the racial makeups of the neighborhoods are influencing the decision.
Hard to evacuate when you have nowhere to go and no resources to live on when you get to nowhere. Not having much to lose gives you as much freedom to stay as it does to flee.
Amazing that there's only been two deaths. Disaster plan or no, that speaks to some excellent first responders and/or capable and well-organized volunteers.
"Typical Althouse blog hypocrisy."
Let's not blame the dumbass democrat mayor -- let's blame the blog! Lulz
"Nobody knows ahead of time exactly how bad things are going to be."
When several weather dudes/dudettes say there is a potential for 36" of rain and conventional opinion is the NE quadrant of a hurricane gets the worst of it, that might have been a clue to get out of Dodge.
Keep in mind that the Houston-Galveston metro area is roughly the size of Connecticut with about 6 million people in it. Where are 6 million people going to go in an evacuation, especially, when the storm came in from the West (one of the main evacuation routes) and would likely be heading East? It's easy to talk about evacuation, but when you start to think about the logistics involved, it becomes mind-numbingly complex. I'm a Houston native living in the Superstorm Sandy country.
It's easy to say get out of Dodge. Not so easy to do when six million people are told to do so. Where exactly does one go when the affected area is hundreds of square miles?
Considering a years worth of rain has already fallen on the affected area in several days, one has to be impressed with the engineering that has held back this incredible amount of water.Texas ain't Louisiana.
Mark wrote: I recall commenters on this blog talking about this storm being a 'dud' on Friday as it came ashore, no one called them out on it.
Stupid people make wild accusations when evidence readily available is ignored.
Only one commenter referred to Harvey as a "dud". That was Jack Wayne, who lives in metro Houston and had some justification for his opinion as storm surge and high winds are typically the most damaging elements of hurricanes. Wayne was cautioned by another commenter for premature prognostication. The word was used more often (twice) to characterize the storm's monicker than to describe its effects.
Mark made leveled a calumny against this blog and by extension to everyone (excluding himself, obviously) who comments here. The record proves his accusation to be fraudulent. Mark indirectly labeled me a hypocrite. So be it. I directly condemn his mendacity.
Michael said...
Mark
Plenty of people evacuated. They didn't have to be told or ordered. The smart people that is. The dumb ones are angry that they are dumb.
There are some people, such as those elderly people trapped in a flooded nursing home, who are unable to evacuate on their own. Even if the city government didn't call for a mass evacuation, it seems reasonable to evacuate vulnerable people like that ahead of time.
I'm struck by the parallels to Katrina. In both cases, white Republicans urged evacuation and got caned by the MSM for insensitivity, mismanagement, racism, etc. while black Democrats who either failed to urge evacuation and/or incompetently handled the disaster were absolved of all blame.
I recall commenters on this blog talking about this storm being a 'dud' on Friday as it came ashore, no one called them out on it.
If I spent all my time calling people out on false statements on a blog I'd never get any work done.
The forecast for this storm was exceptionally good, right down to the location/timing of landfall and the subsequent stall and ongoing flooding rains.
People are optimistic. That's part of the problem. It can't happen here.
All should go read this Twitter thread on Houston flood control and flood-planning history. (You can ignore the "When climate change meets sprawl" headline partway down. That's just media clickbait idiocy and doesn't affect the content.)
They predicted an increase in hurricanes from global warming, a record hurricane drought ends, and they are shamelessly back on that horse.
At least so far, most of Houston actually seems to be okay -- just flooded in (although the waters apparently drained somewhat last night). My relatives in the middle of Houston still have power and water, so it's just a matter of waiting out the flooding (although if the water doesn't drain enough, things may get worse this coming week).
There's parts in the west and northwest of the city that probably should have evacuated. This is counterintuitive to me, since I would have thought the southeast more at risk of flooding since it is closer to the bay, but the FEMA flood maps don't reflect that. I guess it actually has better drainage so there's less risk.
Anyhow, I don't think evacuating the whole city would have been safe -- you'd have had people caught on the open roads and drowning in their cars. But it would probably have made sense to relocate some people in higher risk flood areas as a precautionary measure.
I live in an apartment in the inner loop. The 1st floor has flooded 3 times so far. Took in my neighbor and her cats. She's now sheltering at her workplace... the local library.
Never seen this much water in Houston, and there has been a lot of it in the past. The bayou bridges are inundated and the water was up to 5th St. yesterday. Must be worse right now.
Looked up Addicks and Barker reservoirs on Google Maps. Remember doing that a couple of years ago, they were in the news after a major rain in Houston.
Handsome jogging trails and mini-parks along the creek bottom there. Big trees for plenty of pleasant shade.
In Harlingen, TX there is the Arroyo Colorado, a major drainage channel into the Laguna Madre. City has put in some nice jogging trails.
Friction between
..environmentalists who want to not clear the carrizo cane and brush off the banks because it is habitat for birds;
..people who live along the edges who want the vegitation cleared because it is habitat for possums and feral hogs, not to mention rats and mice; and
..flood control engineers who want the vegitation cleared because, ya know, it slows down the flow of water - not to mention logjams at the bridges from uprooted trees.
Funny thing about water. You take a ten mile wide floodplane and squeeze it down to a quarter mile behind levies so you can build on the land. Flood comes, and the river is above roof level behind the levy.
Funny, that.
Sylvester Turner, the mayor of Houston is a good man. Smart man, who loves Houston. I didn't vote for him, but he's turned out to be an awesome mayor. Most weather folks argued against evacuating. We weren't in the direct path of the Hurricane and most of Houston is not supposed to evacuate because of the amount of people. The State and roads can't handle millions of people all leaving at once.
This storm is just strange and is what it is. It is just water. I haven't even lost power.
I think this is the link jead was trying to provide above:
https://twitter.com/CorbettMatt/status/901959336850804737
Some key points:
- Houston Bayous and roadways are designed to act as a ditches and pathways for water during flood events, but the city has not been able to keep up with the growth of the area when retrofitting the roads to act as better conduits of the water (approx. 6 million people densely occupying land about the size of New Jersey; growth has been about 100k a year for the past 15 yeasr))
- The major evacuation routes are west/south (directly where the storm hit), northeast (where the storm is heading, I-59), and northwest towards Dallas, I-45)
- "The key incidents forming city officials' decision making have been the experiences of Allison (2001), Rita (2005), Ike (2008) and the flooding events of the past two years (Memorial Day 2015 and Tax Day 2016)"
- During Allison (which is the closest past incident of flooding to Harvey) "Despite massive flooding damage to entire neighborhoods there were no drowning deaths in flooded homes. In the area, there were twelve deaths from driving, six from walking, three from electrocution, and one in an elevator.[1] Elsewhere in Texas, a man drowned when swimming in a ditch"
- During Rita, which everyone acknowledges was a disaster of an evacuation, over 100 deaths occurred on the roads due to evacuation
- Leading up to Harvey, there was a lot of unknowns about where it would hit and then where it would go after it hit -- Houston knew it would flood, but no one knew it would be more flooding than Allison (over 20"). In fact, many news reports were saying that it was anticipated that Houston would experience "up to Allison levels" of flooding.
- So, before it hit, officials had 1) the deaths of Allison (22 death, none from flooded homes) vs. Rita evacuation (over 100), 2) structural improvements since Allison, 2001, via retrofitting roads, etc. to handle more flooding, and 3) forecasters saying that it would be bad, but only Allison bad, as guideposts
In hindsight, and knowing the present outcome, maybe they should have made different decisions, but given that information, they didn't make unreasonable ones at the time.
Borther of my admin person says the levee is about to go....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddpl1zl5sYg
RE: the cynical comment re government directing the flow of floodwaters - it's impossible to direct the flow of a flood. Gravity controls it. Water will go to the lowest point, which is the bayou/river drainage basin. Have we all forgotten Oroville dam already? As bad as it sounds to dump water in the middle of a flood, it will ALWAYS be the least harmful tactic even to those downstream if the the water flow will otherwise overtop normal relief channels behind containment structures.
As soon as that happens in a situation like this, the danger of a significant breach is real - and it will grow hour by hour. And if it breaches, a lot MORE water will go downstream, it will happen suddenly, the water will rise so quickly people won't have time to adapt, and the risk to life is maximized. You want to preserve the integrity of the containment structures to minimize water releases, and that means you start earlier so that you can do it more slowly, and you keep doing it until you believe that you have passed the danger of an uncontrolled breach.
The Army Corp of Engineers knocks holes in levees in floods to preserve the basic integrity of the levee system. It happens all the time. Naturally they are not going to phrase this as being done to avoid a breach, but that's what is going on.
The storm was very asymmetric. You could see that from the satellite and wx radar pictures once it came off Yucatan and into the Gulf.
The east side was fed by air that had come hundreds of miles over water. The west side was fed by air coming from West Texas and Mexico. The right arm was YUUUGE. Strung out from Rockport clear past the TX/LA border. Von Schlieffen would have been proud! The storm, as it developed was harbored in the curve of the Gulf Coast at the Tx/Mx border, which I think increased the asymmetry.
The Lower Rio Grande Valley, on the "dry" side of the storm, stayed remarkably dry. We got 0.25 inch of rain early Friday morning - and that was it! Bands of high gusty winds would pass through Friday and Saturday, but just a few drops of water.
Would have been VERY different here if the storm had hit at Brownville/Matamoros.
It is a know fact that high population densities have a dramatic effect on climate. Heat islands, loss of wetlands, etc. Not sure where she heard it, but there is some acknowledgement that there's too much concrete in Houston. For global warming and population safety there should be strict controls on population density.
known
For global warming and population safety there should be strict controls on population density.
So who are you going to kick out of Houston, and how are you going to do it?
They are currently trying to move folks out from around the reservoirs, and also the Sugar Land area, where they suspect that the levees will not hold.
http://abc13.com/mandatory-evacuations-for-two-sugar-land-levee-districts/2349438/
..flood control engineers who want the vegitation cleared because, ya know, it slows down the flow of water - not to mention logjams at the bridges from uprooted trees.
This is what happened in Britain a few years ago when large ares were flooded. The enviros want
"natural vegetation" left alone but when it is in flood control channels, that is a very bad idea.
The northeast quadrant of a hurricane in the northern hemisphere is ALWAYS the most dangerous. That's why is is called "The Dangerous Quadrant."
This has been known since the 18th century.
"For global warming and population safety there should be strict controls on population density."
Yep. It's all that damn concrete in India, Bangledesh and the rest of the sub-continent that's to blame for their monsoon season.
It is unreal how people like you manage to twist and turn your opinions into sheer idiocy.
We didn't lose power which is the difference between rain and disaster. The only problem left is that Harvey is heading back into the Gulf which means it will re-energize and maybe come up to Houston. If we get wind and rain then we have a problem. Ike was way worse than this. Allison was worse on a per hour basis. It dropped 18" in 24 hours. I've had 25" in 3 days. 3 times I've had 4"/hour which is near flood level but my neighborhood is fine. The areas in Houston that always flood in heavy rain have flooded. Some streets went under water due to heavy rain but they're clear now for the most part. People who have lived here a while know where those deep places are. New people don't. It looks worse on TV than it is. Not evacuating was the right decision. Where are 8-9 million people gonna go? Houston is the focus of the news but Corpus, Rockport and Port Aransas got the brunt. They're in bad shape.
Unknown said: "Keep in mind that the Houston-Galveston metro area is roughly the size of Connecticut with about 6 million people in it. Where are 6 million people going to go in an evacuation, especially, when the storm came in from the West (one of the main evacuation routes) and would likely be heading East? It's easy to talk about evacuation, but when you start to think about the logistics involved, it becomes mind-numbingly complex. I'm a Houston native living in the Superstorm Sandy country."
In my earlier comment, I surmised Houston would have a evacuation plan in place, after having a few disasters in previous years. By your you response, it appears not only don't they have an evacuation plan, establishing one is a near impossible task. Am I incorrect here?
Apropos Amazon/WholeFoods and the Venezuelan food desert: Harlingen "Valley Morning Star" reports couple of Church's Fried Chicken places closed for lack of inventory. Major distributor to restaurants stopped deliveries from their Victoria, TX warehouse because of Harvey.
Hotels filled to capacity with folks from Corpus probably put extra stress on the local eateries.
@Humperdink said "it appears not only don't they have an evacuation plan, establishing one is a near impossible task. Am I incorrect here?"
There is a plan, and they have been working for years on infrastructure to both 1) solve flooding issues, and 2) fix the evacuation issues from Rita. But there are some major logistical issues that make your second statement about it being an impossible task mostly true: It's the government, everything takes too long for infrastructure; there are 6 million people densely populated in a land area the size of a small state; there are no good natural evacuation routes because weather systems come from the gulf and inevitably move in one of the directions of the possible evacuation (and in this case, blocked all but one direction); even if you have a smooth evacuation with adequate time, there are still major issues with displaced persons -- what do you do with 6 million displaced people for potentially months?
So, is it technically possible, maybe, but in practical terms, it's a near impossibility and the decisions really have to come down to which of two bad options -- evacuating or staying put -- will result in more loss of life. History in the area shows that more loss of life occurs via evacuation.
like generals always fighting the previous war, city planners are always planning for the previous flood.
soldiers die under order, citizens suffer misplaced trust.
I have a relative staying downtown in a hotel in a little unflooded patch of about ten blocks. Since no one can enter or leave, he says you get to know all the cars.
"There goes that blue Taurus. There's that silver Accord."
Wow, oh my God
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