Althouse: "The Cubs Have a Smaller Chance of Winning Than Trump Does."

३ नोव्हेंबर, २०१६

"The Cubs Have a Smaller Chance of Winning Than Trump Does."

(Via viator.)

२८ टिप्पण्या:

rhhardin म्हणाले...: Armstrong and Getty: Mayor world events since the Cubs last won the world series - NONE.; ३/११/१६, ८:१७ AM
madAsHell म्हणाले...: I understand that ESPN owns 538.com.; ३/११/१६, ८:२१ AM
David Begley म्हणाले...: What?! The great 538 was wrong?; ३/११/१६, ८:२१ AM
sinz52 म्हणाले...: When I went to school, I learned that even 1% is a much larger number than zero.

The odds against drawing four aces in a poker hand is 1 in 54,000, or about 0.002%. Yet it happened to me once.

Given enough time for enough trials, improbable things not only may happen but will happen. The chance of the Cubs winning in any one year was low. But at least once in a whole century? That's another story.; ३/११/१६, ८:२३ AM
Henry म्हणाले...: The Cubs had more depth.; ३/११/१६, ८:२६ AM
chickelit म्हणाले...: In the future, political scientists will refer to the Democrat's '08 curse.; ३/११/१६, ८:२९ AM
Sebastian म्हणाले...: But the Cubs could play the game.; ३/११/१६, ८:३१ AM
traditionalguy म्हणाले...: I hear that the FBI changed the score board during that last commercial break.; ३/११/१६, ८:३७ AM
bagoh20 म्हणाले...: The Cubs didn't cheat.; ३/११/१६, ८:३८ AM
dreams म्हणाले...: "What?! The great 538 was wrong?"

I'm just glad his 2013 NCAA Basketball Championship prediction was correct. He had Louisville with a 23% chance to win it all which was the best percentage chance.; ३/११/१६, ८:४३ AM
Laslo Spatula म्हणाले...: "What are the odds of me taking you home from this bar and making sweet, sweet love to you?"

"Zero percent."

"Okay, okay. But what if I were to give you ten thousand dollars to make this happen?"

"Still zero."

"Ah. You obviously don't know how statistics work. My research shows forty-seven percent of women will rank their answer as 'remotely possible', 'possible' or 'yes'."

"Still zero, buddy."

"What if I increased the offer to one-hundred thousand dollars?"

"Sure, I'll play your game: one percent."

"Hmmm. My statistics show an increase in women from forty-seven percent to seventy-one percent when asked this question. The figure is even higher among the age thirty-five-to-forty-five bracket."

"I'm NOT thirty-five."

"Yes, I understand: I have you in the below-twenty-five category. What if the offer was increased to one million dollars?"

"Two percent."

"You drive a hard bargain. Ninety-three percent of women take the million. What amount would you need to put you in the fifty-percent-and-above category?"

"You'd never have THAT much money."

"Sure, sure. But what if it was Matthew McConaughey AND five-million dollars?"

"Ha! OK: I'm above fifty-percent."

"Thank you for your participation."

"That's it? You're not even going to try to buy me a drink?"

"Buy you a drink? No, no: not when there's over a fifty-percent chance that you're a Whore..."

I am Laslo.; ३/११/१६, ८:४८ AM
Thuglawlibrarian म्हणाले...: That is funny Laslo.; ३/११/१६, ८:५३ AM
Owen म्हणाले...: Laslo! Made me laugh.; ३/११/१६, ९:११ AM
Anthony म्हणाले...: At least now they'll shut up about that stupid "curse".

It wasn't a curse, you guys just SUCKED for 108 years.; ३/११/१६, ९:४५ AM
rehajm म्हणाले...: What?! The great 538 was wrong?

Oh, but they weren't 'wrong'. 538 offered a percentage probability of the Cubs winning and not winning and the less likely outcome occurred.

Certainly not 'wrong'.

Certainly not.; ३/११/१६, ९:५० AM
Dude1394 म्हणाले...: Ruh roh; ३/११/१६, ९:५२ AM
mikee म्हणाले...: So NOW which pro sports team is the absolute worst, having had no championship for exactly how many years? Because I expect them to step up to their new status as most accursed team, and lament their own existence, like the Cubbies have done as long as I have lived.; ३/११/१६, ९:५६ AM
Greg Hlatky म्हणाले...: Looks like the Arizona Cardinals, whose last championship (as the Chicago Cardinals) was in 1947.; ३/११/१६, १०:२२ AM
shiloh म्हणाले...: Indeed, if the Cubs can win the World Series all things are possible.

Keep hope alive!; ३/११/१६, १०:३४ AM
Darcy म्हणाले...: Haha. I hope to frolic in Nate Silver's tears next week. :); ३/११/१६, १०:४८ AM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Laslo! :-D; ३/११/१६, ११:०३ AM
mockturtle म्हणाले...: Game seven was like Boy meet's girl, boy loses girl, boy gets girl and lives happily ever after'. Great game!

But Joe Buck is possibly the most annoying sportscaster since Howard Cosell.; ३/११/१६, ११:०७ AM
Rusty म्हणाले...: Trump it is then.; ३/११/१६, ११:११ AM
Howard म्हणाले...: The Cubs winning is the first sign of the coming Apocalypse. For us anti-Trumpsters, this means that Dronald is fated to crush Hitlary.; ३/११/१६, ११:११ AM
Howard म्हणाले...: Hey, Rusty and I agree on something. It's the dawn of a new age.; ३/११/१६, ११:१२ AM
richardsson म्हणाले...: The brightest math student in my high school class now runs an online version of a horse racing betting sheet---like the Daily Racing Form. Polling, survey research, and all that is mostly the mathematizing (neologism alert!) of wishful thing. If we could know the future, we'd already be there. But, if Gallup could survive its prediction that Dewey would be elected President in 1948, I'm sure 539 will survive this bad call on the Cubs. By the way, that Cubs game made a born again baseball fan of a friend of mine who used to hate baseball. The baseball owners who give thanks to Colin Kraperdick.; ३/११/१६, १:३० PM
अनामित म्हणाले...: Hey hey! There goes a Mexican over the fence-- a Trump-Link fence. Beauty, privacy, security!; ३/११/१६, २:०३ PM
Clyde म्हणाले...: Remedial reading for the folks at 538:

"It ain't over 'til it's over." -- Yogi Berra; ३/११/१६, ९:०५ PM