Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.So if Trump got 6, Hillary should get 6. Just hang on. Wait a week. The rightful order of things will be restored....
There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
ADDED: "Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein."
Trump gained 15% among the independents!
AND: There's a big flaw in the idea that Clinton should get the same bounce from her convention — like it's a bounce year, comparable to 2000, when Gore and Bush got identical 8-point boosts. Trump had to move from being a strange phenomenon to being seen as even a normal candidate, a person would could credibly serve as President, let alone an especially great prospect. That is, he had huge upward potential. Hillary is so well known. What is the convention supposed to do to change how we think of her? Trump had to fight through the establishment and getting accepted in the ritual of a convention was a real transition from him. But Hillary was her party's preference all along. The convention can only be more of the same... except to the extent that the Bernie delegates — fueled by the recent DNC links — manage to act up. There's a downside for her if the Bernie people don't shut up for the good of the great cause of defeating Trump. But I think they will. Bernie is speaking tonight.
IN THE COMMENTS: David said: "Is there really that much movement, or are the polls less accurate than usual in a year of rebellion?"
It may be that before the convention, people were holding back from telling pollsters they supported Trump and that the convention, by normalizing him, caused these people to go ahead and acknowledge they're for him.
I think it's been the case — and it's still partly true — that there are a lot of people who have the feeling that they don't personally support Trump and don't want to be thought of that way, but that they are aware of somehow nevertheless wanting him to win.
I have heard it expressed just this way: I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win. That's a hell of a state of mind!
पोस्ट्स
१५० टिप्पण्या:
Sure. It's obvious that the Ted Cruz brouhaha and the DWS/DNC meltdown will have the same negligible effect on how we view the candidates.
Oh, and when Sanders pulls a Cartman and goes home, that won't hurt at all.
Some order never really derailed - last week the MSM were falling over themselves over Melania's "plagiarism" and plagiarizing each other in calling Donald's speech "dark". This week, they'll be wetting themselves trying to top each other in accolades for the party and Clinton.
Is there really that much movement, or are the polls less accurate than usual in a year of rebellion? Hard to tell.
Let's play a game and try to spot the words that have gone out in the email blasts from the DNC. Or maybe guess what *will* go out.
As PB mentioned above, the word "Dark" was very obviously blasted out to describe Trump's speech. Another idea that was pushed was the GOP lacked policy.
This week, I'm certain the Democrats want to push the idea that Hillary actually has policy ideas. They will want to push experience. They will want to push a steady hand. They will make Hillary laugh to counter act the "darkness". They will want to push the idea that America already is great. Somehow they are going to have to balance that against Michael Brown's mother speaking. They wanted to push party unity, but I don't know if they will dare to be that cheeky.
Will Obama speak there? Will Bill Clinton or Barack Obama be the speaker that gets the arena moving as one people?
Both Obama's will be speaking at the DNC convention.
Oh, please, Bernie, pull a Ted Cruz.
There we go. The Very Popular Obamas will spellbind the audience.
By definition this means that Trump's speech and the overall convention were a success.
This also means: (a) the Melania speech kerfuffle was not a big deal and (b) the Cruz decision to speak, but not endorse Trump, boomeranged on Cruz.
If you add the DNC wiki leaks on how Debbie WS was trying to schlong Bernie (at the behest of Hillary), you have a nice week for the Donald.
If the folks at Anonymous have their way, a bomb threat will be the thing that gets the arena moving as one.
Hillary is going to bounce like a lead basketball.
I'm no fan of Anonymous, but they aren't physically threatening, Susan.
Whodathunk the Clintons would corrupt the DNC?
I haven't voted for Trump yet, but I will.
"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had."
Look at shilo rooting for the candidate who cheated his guy out of the nomination!
Will Barack Obama indulge in his desire to blame Trump's rhetoric for the recent ISIS attacks? He's already hinted that way. Will he do it at the convention?
I was a bit surprised by the bounce, as party loyalty has been solid in recent cycles, but I should have forseen it--if Johnson is polling at 20% that seems a bit high and a lot of those will drift back to one of the major party nominees as they become scared by the alternative. The poll you cite shows this--Trump's gain largely coming from people drifting back from Johnson. And this also makes sense because the one thing the RNC convention did was hammer home how unacceptable Clinton is.
Professor--what part of that convention did you think made Trump "normalized"? I didn't get the sense that he was even trying to do that. Speeches in his favor focused about 80% on attacking Clinton, and maybe 10% on "and Trump will fix it, but don't ask for details". (The remaining 10% general talk about issues).
I disagree that Clinton cannot get a bounce as well--if her convention focuses on scaring people away from Trump, a lot of those who currently favor third parties will drift to her by default.
I do not understand why Ted Cruz saying "vote your conscience" was bad for Trump. How many people, upon reflection, have consciences that want a Hillary Clinton presidency?
Why, after so many years of pointing to Left-Wing MSM advocacy, do so many self-purported conservatives and Republicans accept MSM propaganda as truth?
If I vote my conscience, I must vote for Donald Trump.
Gary Johnson still lagging. Needs the magical 15%.
(Cue the Johnson ridicule.)
Nate Silver says it is hard to tell if this is a bounce, because Trump was already trending up before the convention.
Election Update: Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?
And the thought of a corresponding bounce for Hillary made me google "Dead Cat Bounce".
"That's a hell of a state of mind!"
Welcome to my world, Althouse.
Come election day, I will vote for whatever candidate has the best chance – however small that chance may be – of defeating Clinton. That's all I really care about.
One can only hope this Hillary Clinton shows up at the podium.
More Kerry "I think air conditioners are as much a danger as ISIS" and the numbers might get ugly.
We have lower trust in government than ever before because our government deserves less trust.
Trump's kids helped "normalize" him a lot. Chelsea cannot do the same for Hillary.
I think it's been the case — and it's still partly true — that there are a lot of people who have the feeling that they don't personally support Trump and don't want to be thought of that way, but that they are aware of somehow nevertheless wanting him to win.
I suspect that that's a pretty common thought. Personally, I plan to vote L, but I live in a very safe state, so that's where my (mostly worthless) vote will do the most good. I don't want either one of them to win, but it's awfully hard to avoid the idea that I don't want Clinton to win more.
Gary Johnson will get a significant vote, maybe 12% or so, and that will echo the Ross Perot effect that put Bill Clinton in office in 1992 and 1996.
"I do not understand why Ted Cruz saying "vote your conscience" was bad for Trump."
On its face, it wasn't, regardless of what Ted Cruz meant. But Team Trump jumped the gun and misplayed the statement, implying that "voting your conscience" means not supporting Trump. They're not a well-organized team.
Trump bounce should scare Bernie supporters to Hillary.
I'm not for Hillary, but I want her to win.
However, as an experimentalist, I would like to see Trump win, in an alternate universe, and have absolutely nothing bad come of it. The state is the Olympic, not the Titanic.
I'll vote my conscience and it sure won't be for a "Manchurian Candidate" named Trump.
"Blogger Unknown said...
I'll vote my conscience and it sure won't be for a "Manchurian Candidate" named Trump."
Uhh . . Do you know that Russia is no longer a communist nation?
Russia?
Was asked a few days ago what would I do if Trump wins.
What will Althouse cons do when Hillary wins? Cry? Be totally disgusted? Go off the deep end? Move to Canada/Sweden/Australia? Revert to the fetal position for a couple mos like Mary Matalin when Bush41 lost in 1992.
Try to diagnose how someone like Trump slipped through the cracks?
Continue with your disingenuous loser sarcasm. ok, that's a given.
>
Never too early to make plans ...
I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win. That's a hell of a state of mind!
Isn't it? That's been my world for the last six months. It will continue to be my world for the next four months.
That is what happens when you are given a choice between a shit sandwich and poison.
I'm no fan of Trump but Hillary has disqualified herself. I really wish the Democrats had nominated a honest, capable candidate instead of aligning themselves with corruption and incompetence.
"They will make Hillary laugh to counter act the "darkness"."
You react differently to Hillary's laugh than I do.
Why do we have to wait until after the convention to learn of CNN's post-convention poll reaults. Why can't the Russians leak them now?
"I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win. That's a hell of a state of mind!"
That seems the key part of Trump's support. If not for a massively unacceptable Hillary Clinton, he wouldn't have a prayer.
If the Russians really wanted to help Trump they would start leaking her SoS emails.
Wouldn't that be something.
"You react differently to Hillary's laugh than I do. "
No I don't.
But someone thinks it's good for Hillary to laugh. It's quite obviously used as a strategy.
@ Terry,
My Manchurian Candidate reference has nothing to do with communism. It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House.
Hillary corrupts everything she touches, up to the DNC, has made a shit show of US foreign policy, how can Trump be worse?
Trump's appeal is twofold, Brando. Not only is he not Hillary, he is not eGOP.
Both have become loathesome in the eyes of the thinking public.
As to the bounce in the polls, expect it to be not only reported as enormous, but insurmountable by Trump. After all, using all opportunities to demoralize the Republicans is an actual press role in US elections, just as important as their efforts to demonize the Republican.
"I have heard it expressed just this way: I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win. That's a hell of a state of mind!"
"I'm not for Trump, but I want Hillary to lose" would better characterize my state of mind.
What will Althouse cons do when Hillary wins? Cry?
A little bit, inside, over the death of the republic.
Be totally disgusted?
I'm already disgusted, and couldn't get more disgusted.
Go off the deep end?
I hope not...but I'm already depressed...haven't turned the TV on in a week, or used Facebook in several.
Move to Canada/Sweden/Australia?
Never....but if I was, I'd try for Switzerland...very hard to emigrate there
Revert to the fetal position for a couple mos like Mary Matalin when Bush41 lost in 1992.
Frankly, this is entirely possible.....things seem so hopeless and to be spiraling out of control...I feel like a Roman watching Nero go fiddle shopping.
Try to diagnose how someone like Trump slipped through the cracks?
Nope...he didn't slip through the cracks...he knocked down the front door.....the diagnosis is easy...the Republican Establishment thought that they could continue to ignore and take for granted the Republican base the way the Democratic Establishment ignores and takes advantage of the Democratic base. They forgot that there is a difference between Republicans and Democrats, because in Washington D.C. there is no difference.
The general rejection of Trump by establishment Republicans is one of his greatest appeals.
Brando, exactly what was wanted from Cruz was to tell people like you, nevertrumpers, to come in from the cold and do what you gotta do. You hypocrite, you know this.
Exactly (or to this effect) what Cruz could and should have said without 'sacrificing his family honor': You've got to vote for Donald Trump. You've got no choice. The choice was made when (Democratic abuses). Hillary is the end of civilization so (even) I, Who have my differences, have no choice but to endorse and support the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. (All my ground game peeps should call Manafort.)
Just like that. Then he wouldn't be a fucking dead man.
Did he ever give a concession speech? I seem to remember it was a lousy one. This could have been his do-over.
Trump's convention speech was big. You immediately understood the impact of that speech if you watched the hysterical reaction by the media. If Trump can maintain that same demeanor until the election, he will win going away.
"I'm not for Trump, but I want Hillary to lose" would better characterize my state of mind.
Yes.
Oh cripes, somebody starts a rumor with no evidence, anonymously, and Unknown is treating it like the gospel truth. What a surprise!
"They forgot that there is a difference between Republicans and Democrats, because in Washington D.C. there is no difference."
True in too many ways.
"Hillary is the end of civilization so (even) I, Who have my differences, have no choice..."
What mindboggling stupidity.
It didn't take long for the Trump haters to swear he was a stalking horse for Hillary! to a Russian plant. Please don't stop this asinine speculation on my behalf -- it's far too entertaining.
Let's talk about anything but Hillary's poll numbers, right trolls?
Private Shiloh,
'Continue with your disingenuous loser sarcasm. ok, that's a given.'
Literally - I know you are but what am I?
Rhetorical! Bwahahahahahahahahaha
God you suck
If not for Trump, the GOP bosses would have nominated Rubio, or Bush, or Kasich, and there win would have been even bigger than McCain in 2008 or Romney in 2012!
2000 was a long time ago.
A half a century to come of one-party politics enforced by the IRS, Just-Us Dept, Politicized FEC, and a compliant SCOTUS to rubber stamp it all, or 4 years of Trump?
It's not that hard.
Perhaps we could tell Trump to stick to his business and let his kids run the country.
Exactly, tim in vermont
"Blogger Unknown said...
@ Terry,
My Manchurian Candidate reference has nothing to do with communism. It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House."
Well, you have totally missed the point of the Manchurian Candidate, then. Russia's motivation for sticking us with 'their' candidate was inseparable from its communism. Russia is not a super power. This is the 21st century.
Actually, I don't think it's the Russians helping Trump as much as the Syrian refugees. Three more terrorist attacks in Germany last week. Remind me again, how many of these people does Hillary want to import into the US?
Whatever Hillary's bounce will be, it won't be from Bernie's supporters:
Sunday, Jul 24, 2016
The Clinton campaign emails this statement from Hillary Clinton:
"I want to thank my longtime friend Debbie Wasserman Schultz for her leadership of the Democratic National Committee over the past five years. I am grateful to Debbie for getting the Democratic Party to this year's historic convention in Philadelphia, and I know that this week's events will be a success thanks to her hard work and leadership. There's simply no one better at taking the fight to the Republicans than Debbie--which is why I am glad that she has agreed to serve as honorary chair of my campaign's 50-state program to gain ground and elect Democrats in every part of the country, and will continue to serve as a surrogate for my campaign nationally, in Florida, and in other key states. I look forward to campaigning with Debbie in Florida and helping her in her re-election bid--because as President, I will need fighters like Debbie in Congress who are ready on day one to get to work for the American people."
For those who think that there's no difference between the parties in Washington...
Mike Lee, versus John Conyers.
Elizabeth Warren, versus Justin Amash.
Ted Cruz, versus Chuck Schumer.
Maxine Waters, versus Marsha Blackburn.
With Hillary is it sexist to predict a post convention sag rather than a bounce?
A chunk of the Trump support is due to celebrity assholes sweetening the pot with promises to leave if he is elected.
I'm not for Trump, but we all need Hillary to lose.
It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House.
Woah!! I'm confused now. I thought that the meme was that Trump was a secret Hillary clone to cripple the Republican party and get Hillary elected. NOW...I find out that it is the Russians who are backing Trump in a secret plan to get a Russian President in power in the US.
What next? Space aliens? Could it be? Is it possible? that space aliens are backing Trump and he is secretly one of those lizard illuminati shape changers? Oh wait. That is supposed to be Hillary who is the lizard queen.
Man....I just can't keep up with the conspiracy theories anymore. I guess I need a new tin foil hat. Maybe I can use one of Unknown's extra tin foil hats. I bet she has a bunch.
The voters totally get it. They don't like Trump for being an arrogant asshole and they never will like him.
BUT they just want to borrow his brains, his boldness and his courage for 8 years to fix the hydra headed disasters that Obama and Friends in the corrupt Establishment of both Parties have spent 20 years rigging for their wealth and our destruction. Then they will kick out this arrogant asshole.
I agree.
What will Althouse cons do when Hillary wins? Cry?
Buy guns, more guns, and, don't forget, a lot of ammo. Plus maybe reloading equipment and machine tools to finish 80% AR lower receivers. She has, in essence, promised to come after our guns, and to appoint Supreme Court Justices that will allow her to.
"Come election day, I will vote for whatever candidate has the best chance – however small that chance may be – of defeating Clinton."
-- That's Trump then. He and Clinton are the only candidates with a realistic shot of winning -- barring something amazing happening between now and then.
Also, Tim in Vermont has a strong argument. We need a Republican president solely because when we have one, the politicization of government agencies slows slightly. The IRS, alone, needs a vast swamp draining, and only with a Republican in the White House will we have the means to do so.
On the bright side, with a Republican in the White House, the media will care about the homeless and continuing bad economic signs again, instead of "unexpectedly" having to massively revise down their economic reporting every quarter.
I'm sure the Russians would rather have Trump "make good deals for America, screw everyone else, get Europe to make enough to defend themselves," rather than the utterly black mailable Reset Hillary.
Honest opinion: Russia doesn't care who becomes president.
It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House.
When it comes to Hillary, changing the subject is always the best approach.
Dust Bunny Queen said...
Woah!! I'm confused now. I thought that the meme was that Trump was a secret Hillary clone to cripple the Republican party and get Hillary elected.
You are confused, that is AprilApple's meme. The truth is out there.
Sanders is coming out strongly in favor of electing Hillary Clinton in order to defeat Trump. His followers will mostly follow his lead and vote for Clinton, because they loathe Trump and see him for the menace he is.
"“We have to elect Secretary Clinton, who on every single issue — fighting for the middle class, on health care, on climate change — is a far, far superior candidate to Trump,” Sanders said on Meet the Press. “That’s where I think the focus has got to be.”
Sanders’ will hammer that point home in his speech Monday and will "rip into Trump” for denying climate change is real, according to his campaign. He also will note the “most progressive platform in Democratic Party history” includes agreements he reached with Clinton to expand access to health care and make public college tuition-free for students from families with annual incomes up to $125,000 a year."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/25/sanders-meet-delegates-ahead-democatiic-national-convention-speech/87518822/
Why would the Russkians want to elect Trump? Hillary is already bought and paid for, and they have all of her emails.
On the bright side, with a Republican in the White House, the media will care about the homeless
I have 5 $100 dollar bets outstanding that the media will suddenly rediscover poverty by the end of January 2017 if Trump wins.
I live in the Inland Empire of Southern California. Intellectually I knew that the economy was terrible, and that many people were having a hard time. The street beggars in my area are mainly professional (the same ones have been in the same places for years....one of the parking lot roamers has hit me up five separate times, with the same story each time....I called her on her shit, and she just moved on to her next target) so I just dismissed their presence.
Then I went to a USC football game last fall.....on the way home, I drove through downtown L.A. There are thousands of people living on the streets down there.... tent villages of what have become permanent communities. The visual hit me hard, and I realized that I hadn't seen images of this on the news, it's too damaging to the narrative of both Brown and Obama. I bet these images start showing up before the end of January if Trump wins, and continue to be ignored if Hillary wins.
It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House.
But they already got Obama, and WJC before him. Perhaps they're not that greedy.
The Clinton campaign emails this statement from Hillary Clinton:
That she would have a minion email it, instead of personally delivering it verbally is a weakness. A big weakness. No doubt that it was written by a committee of minions, and probably focused group tested too. Probably couldn't be more inauthentic if they had tried. I listened to Trump Friday thank the people who put on the Republican convention, and it was good. He thanked the carpenters and drywall ears building the sets, the Secret Service, chief of police, law enforcement, etc. all the little guys, and he did it personally, not via a committee of underlings. It makes a yuuge difference. Poor DWS, trusting Crooked Hillary.
"What will Althouse cons do when Hillary wins?"
Same thing I've been doing for the last eight years; turn the television off when the President speaks.
Honest opinion: Russia doesn't care who becomes president.
Not so sure I agree Matthew. I think Russia has been quite pleased with the current policy of American weakness. It's created a window for Putin to expand his territory and influence.
If for no other reason, Hillary's incompetence and laziness will almost certainly result in a continuation of the "leading from behind" strategy. Trump, on the other hand, would be much more of a wild card for the Russians.
Whoo-hoo! The Obama-Hillary team really put the brakes on ol' Putin, didn't they!
"I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win. That's a hell of a state of mind!" Why? It's the state of mind of us #NeverNeverTrumpers. Apart from Tim's recitation, no one in his right mind would want to put the fraud-committing, bimbo-despising, rapist-marrying, secret-exposing, Libya-devastating, clueless congenital lying liar in the White House. Trump is the least suitable tool, but the only one we've got.
Maybe Unknown can tell us how Trump would have given the Russians a better deal than she did on US uranium?
@BH: "The Clinton campaign emails this statement from Hillary Clinton . . . That she would have a minion email it, instead of personally delivering it verbally is a weakness. A big weakness. No doubt that it was written by a committee of minions, and probably focused group tested too. Probably couldn't be more inauthentic if they had tried." Yes. The particularly inauthentic cringe-inducing quality of that bit of tripe is a sign of her current weakness and of things to come. No doubt Hill, on receiving the relevant email, wrote "pls print."
"Brando, exactly what was wanted from Cruz was to tell people like you, nevertrumpers, to come in from the cold and do what you gotta do. You hypocrite, you know this."
And what in hell about Cruz and his history made you think he'd get in line? For years I've been hearing from "outsider" types about how great Cruz was for his government shutdown, and his constant fights with the "establishment" and how the fact that other GOP senators (except Mike Lee) couldn't stand him was a feature, not a bug. The time for playing nice was over, and all that.
Then Trump gets nasty with him and his family and anyone in their right mind acts surprised when Cruz turns on him? Really? You didn't see that coming?
It doesn't matter what Cruz intended, or that it would have been nice for him to try and unify the party (even though dividing the party seemed cool not so long ago but I guess it depends on whose ox is gored). What matters is how Team Trump handled it, and they handled it poorly.
It's more likely our own intelligence community leaked the DNC emails in retribution for the way Hillary Clinton's private server put some of them in danger than the Russians.
I think the Russians care a great deal about who our next president will be.
Exploring Russian ties to the men lurking behind Trump.
Boy, that "dark" speech Trump gave really was dark, wasn't it? And Americans responded darkly ... by vaulting Trump into the lead.
Well, in fairness as to hellish states of mind, there are a lot of people who don't think Trump should be president, but look at Hillary and KNOW that she shouldn't be president. The Clinton Foundation and so forth.
I agree that Clinton has little upward potential. The woman has not been able to hold a press conference in over seven months. Has this EVER happened before? We have a Dem candidate who can't hold a press conference? Think about what that does to trust and confidence in her!! She doesn't have the belly to come out and confront the questions once or twice, take the beating, apologize and move on.
I still think that if Sanders had been the Democratic nominee, he would have won the election over Trump.
Hillary had BETTER have a huge convention bounce, because after that, Trump will be happily romping around talking to whatever talking head wants to talk to him - and every time he does, he subliminally reinforces the idea that he's reachable and in touch. The contrast to Hillary - this remote pope-like figure, who appears to bless the faithful from the podium at speeches and scripted audiences, surrounded by a curia of political operatives getting paid from three different sources at once - could not be MORE painful.
The bottom line is that Americans tend not to vote for popes, esp. when those popes are too involved with the banks.
If Hillary can't get out of the popemobile, she's probably got no chance in November. She has to get out there and talk to her audience.
The media's ability to shape the narrative has slipped out of their control. With this ability to run interference for the Dems gone, I honestly believe Trump could go to 56-60% in the polls. We are in uncharted waters here.
"Boy, that "dark" speech Trump gave really was dark, wasn't it? And Americans responded darkly ... by vaulting Trump into the lead."
People are feeling pretty dark. When's the last time we went a week without some mass shooting here or a terrorist attack overseas?
"The woman has not been able to hold a press conference in over seven months. Has this EVER happened before? We have a Dem candidate who can't hold a press conference? Think about what that does to trust and confidence in her!! She doesn't have the belly to come out and confront the questions once or twice, take the beating, apologize and move on."
That is sort of amazing. We keep hearing that her advisers are saying she needs to improve on the trust issue, let people see the real Hillary, etc., and you'd think she's say "okay, let's do some press conferences" to at least mitigate some of that. Hell, it's not like she wouldn't dodge and weave the whole way through it. She's really not cut out for politics.
Why buy guns? Not just to be paranoid, but also because guns are probably a better investment than gold, even now. But esp with a gun grabbing President like Crooked Hillary has promised to be. I think that I would concentrate initially on 80% and 100% complete AR lower receivers, then complete AR-15s, because that is where she would go first. The lower receivers would probably give you more bang for the buck than complete rifles, and I expect it to take a look at lot more time for her to shut down the rest of the AR parts market. After that market starts to boom, I would probably move to handguns in common calibers (e.g. 9mm, .45ACP, etc) and popular brands: Glock, Ruger, Springfield, etc. am I paranoid? Doesn't matter. What does matter is that a lot of other people are paranoid, or at least worried, about her in regards to her promises to ban guns by any wall she can. And that is what bubbles are made of.
@ Terry,
My Manchurian Candidate reference has nothing to do with communism. It has to do with Russia and attempts by Russia to put their man in our White House.
Get new talking points. HeideCruise (whom we will never see again) has you beat to these.
"His followers will mostly follow his lead and vote for Clinton, because they loathe Trump and see him for the menace he is."
You need to get out more. BernieBros are rightfully pissed off.
@Brando: "What matters is how Team Trump handled it, and they handled it poorly" Did they? They administered a pretty thorough beat-down, they planted the jerk-commits-political-suicide meme, and most GOPers fell in line. Whether it hurts long term with Cruz supporters or what's left of his campaign organization remains to be seen.
"The woman has not been able to hold a press conference in over seven months. Has this EVER happened before? We have a Dem candidate who can't hold a press conference?
You would think she would be holding dozens of press conferences to get the free media that Trump is dominating, but she can't.
You would think that she would love to get in front of the MSM, the people who have been the most loyal and supportive, the people most likely to defend her and put her in the best possible light, but she can't.
If she can't take canned questions from a fawning audience eager to make her look good, how the hell is she ever going to debate?
She won't. "I refuse to legitimize the hate and divisiveness of Trump by appearing on a debate stage with him."
Trump should then invite Stein and Johnson, have the debates anyway, and call Hillary a corrupt coward at each one.
Press Conference? What is that?
What difference does it make now?
The 30 minute Hollywood produced heroine biopic will answer all questions. When you awake you will be entranced by the First Woman to give orders. Well maybe not the first.
M Jordan - and the news cycle is favoring Trump in an extreme way. Take the most controversial thing that was supposed to sink him forever - his stance on Muslim immigration. Look at Germany. Since the 15th of July:
-Axe & knife attack on train, IS soldier video, 17 yr old Afghan refugee who turns out to be Pakistani in his 20s.
-On ONE DAY last week four children (one as young as 10) were sexually molested by refugees at the public pool in Kircheim-Teck - the situation is so bad they are hiring security personnel to be there always. This started as one unruly refugee who refused to heed the pool director, and developed into a near riot in which women were attacked, the pool director was assaulted, and two policemen were injured.
http://www.stuttgarter-nachrichten.de/inhalt.freibad-in-kirchheim-unter-teck-polizei-grosseinsatz-und-sexuelle-belaestigung.9f2f37ce-f129-4850-aa17-51f81a2ecc29.html
-Munich, reprise 2016. Great shock and fear. Not terrorism, just bloodthirsty suicide. A second young man has been arrested for knowing about it.
-Machete attack, refugee. Pregnant woman hacked to death, several other injuries.
-Ansbach explosion, suicide bomber.
-Guy gets on train in North Germany (Bremen-Hamburg line), starts waving a knife around. After the axe attack, this causes acute hysteria. Police arrested him, very drunk, word is he chased two women with knife.
The Germans are watching their civil society dissolve whereever there are large groups of young male refugees. It's not just the stuff you hear about.
France - will they ever restore normal civil rights protections? Probably not. Their version of the Fourth Amendment has been suspended since the Paris attacks, and will likely be suspended until the end of the year. They have run out of police and troops, the locals are arming themselves, and they are now considering building a reserve militia, probably in the hopes of preventing Sonderkommandos from forming.
The situation in neither Germany nor France is at all stable; the news will continue to filter out.
Uhhh... what's the opposite of a bounce?
tim in vermont said...A half a century to come of one-party politics enforced by the IRS, Just-Us Dept, Politicized FEC, and a compliant SCOTUS to rubber stamp it all, or 4 years of Trump?
It's not that hard.
Bam! And I'd like to add it'll be against an unarmed populace that only has access to state censored media.
The best thing I've seen come of the leaks is the opening of many of the younger gen's eyes. Perused through 10k+ Reddit comments last night, and they are mighty angry at the censorship and manipulation. I guess they thought their ability to access media 24/7 meant it was truly "open." Seeing how Twitter, Facebook, and their own playground--Reddit--manipulated them over the leak story, (in which they admit the emails themselves provided the evidence of the MSM collusion and the hypocrisy of the left) really hit them hard.
Reddit would not even allow arguably the biggest story of their lives--the mega thread on the leaks, to be posted in the "news" section.
They are blown away at this, and the tweaking of trends and blocks on Twitter and FBook.
The only thing that surprised me was their utter shock that D's would bash gays the way they did. I sensed that for them to realize the creation of divisions and false love were just exploitative ploys and strategies by the DNC was akin to the day they found out Santa Claus wasn't real.
Bernie supporters have also started a class action against Hillary/"the rigged system"/the DNC to recoup $ they sent Bernie. Haven't heard if they found an atty.
The more people see of Hillary, the more they like her!
Not just to be paranoid, but also because guns are probably a better investment than gold
And more practical. I can kill a deer or shoot some geese with a rifle or shotgun. Kind of hard to do with a hunk of gold. Yes. I can buy meat with gold, IF someone wants to make that deal. However, once I use the gold it is gone. The guns..still here. Ammo, now. That is the thing to stock up on.
Same thing with deterring someone who wants to invade my home or hurt me. Gun...versus throwing some Krugerrands at the bad guys to make them go away?
In economics class, the prof taught us that money is three things: a store of value, a means of accounting, and a medium of exchange. Gold has all three of these virtues. So does canned chili, plus, if you have to, you can eat the chili.
Gahrie@9:11, I hope Trump organizes his own debates, tells the MSM to F off--he won't attend their rigged debates, demands PBS broadcast it (after all, we are paying for that commie channel, aren't we?) and has legitimate "regular" citizens asking questions. Tammy Bruce should moderate.
After all, the "elites" from Prof. Robbie George on the right to Wall Street CEO's on the left are never-Trumpers, so why even bother with the likes of them--go straight to the people.
"@Brando: "What matters is how Team Trump handled it, and they handled it poorly" Did they? They administered a pretty thorough beat-down, they planted the jerk-commits-political-suicide meme, and most GOPers fell in line. Whether it hurts long term with Cruz supporters or what's left of his campaign organization remains to be seen."
If the goal is to tarnish Cruz, then they accomplished that. If the goal was to show that the Right is uniting to swamp Hillary, that certainly didn't come across. Right now it looks like still a divided party, launching attacks at each other and being off message.
The message right now needs to be "a Clinton restoration is intolerable" and secondarily "whatever your beef with Trump, you can live with him". (Of course, the Clintonites will be making exactly the opposite message). Part one was largely on display last week, with only Paul Ryan effectively making the case for part two (living with Trump). Frankly, I would have packed the entire schedule with speeches like Ryan's, punctuated with personal friends of Trump's telling anectdotes that subtly send the message that this guy isn't who his enemies make him out to be.
Trump should then invite Stein and Johnson, have the debates anyway, and call Hillary a corrupt coward at each one.
If I was Trump, I would start wearing a button (and tweet a picture of it) everyday with the number of days since Hillary's last press conference. Somebody is going to ask him what the button means......
First pivoting and now bouncing. I hate the MSM.
Blogger Levi Starks said..."Uhhh... what's the opposite of a bounce?"
Splat.
"What will Althouse cons do when Hillary wins? Cry? Be totally disgusted? Go off the deep end? Move to Canada/Sweden/Australia? Revert to the fetal position for a couple mos like Mary Matalin when Bush41 lost in 1992."
If your doors have locks, use em.
Nobody cares what I think notwithstanding, have a totally opposite view on two points.
1) Re: folks who say they won't vote for Trump, but actually will. Myth, many who say they will vote for Trump won't. btw, Rep primary polling did not indicate any "hidden" Trump voters/supporters.
2) Terrorist attacks at home and abroad help Trump. As a rule, they always help the incumbent, and again, Hillary pretty much is the incumbent.
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I know, this election hasn't followed the themes/scenarios of previous presidential elections. True, as who knew Rep primary voters would choose a batshitcrazy egomaniacal, narcissistic fool like Trump.
And I applaud their effort for thinking outside the box!
Hillary's problem is that the more people see of her the less they like her. Her best plan for getting a bounce from the convention would be not to attend. There's an excellent chance of a negative bounce, even if the Sanders people more or less behave. It will be interesting to see how the NYT plays that.
Of course, Humphrey came very close to winning in 1968 even after the Dem's Chicago convention. But people liked Hubert Humphrey.
I asked myself, why did they look back to 2000?
Well, if you look at the 2012 polls, Romney lead, at all, after the convention during the month of September. He had a few leads in August right before and during the convention. But right after all the polls had Obama leading. No bounce.
It looks like McCain did get a bounce, a pretty large one, in 2008 after the convention.
I wonder why they went all the way back to 2000?
Mook: Its the Russians.
Brazile: The emails were tampered with.
Notice that no one refutes what was in the emails or offers anything that mitigates the obvious corruption. If the emails were tampered with,just show the real emails. Set the record straight. And then apologize to DWS for maligning her and firing her.
If Bernie gets up and supports Hillary, he is just as corrupt as she is. At this point the DNC's role for him is to come out and convince his supporters to transfer to Hillary - and then stfu and go lay by his bowl in the corner.
"But people liked Hubert Humphrey."
And didn't like Nixon!
"It looks like McCain did get a bounce, a pretty large one, in 2008 after the convention."
Much of that was due to the public's infatuation w/mama grizzly, the game changer!
But
But
But then she started answering hard hitting questions like what newspapers do you read?
You bet'cha!
“I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win.”
Rod Liddle, of the (London) Spectator and Sunday Times, wrote back in February: “I want to see President Trump – if only because of who he’d annoy.”
'I'm not for Trump, but I want him to win."
I understand and am the same way. Trump horrifies me, but not as much as Hillary. It's the prospect of Supreme Court appointments that has convinced me to vote for Trump, as painful as that may be.
Also I wonder whether this year the phenomenon of lying to pollsters is accentuated. I can imagine many not wanting to admit they'll vote for Trump.
The explanation is easy. Trump, in his acceptance speech, turned out to be vastly more of a normal person than the MSM had ever painted him. And the leaked DNC Emails make it clear that Hillary and the DNC are worse than the MSM ever painted her.
Brando, maybe the goal was to use Cruz to poke back at the GOPe. After Rubio failed, the nevertrumpers swung to support Cruz. Not because they ever liked him, but because they disliked him a lot less than Trump. Cruz severely damaged his anti-establishment image by accepting their support and cooperating with their plans to fight Trump. He went from ass kicker to ass kisser.
Pettifogger, Trump's picks for the Court could be problematic. I can easily see him choosing another Souter type. Of course, Hillary's picks will assuredly be terrible. More RBG or worse.
And then there's this.
And, Nate, you should not put Virginia in Hillary's column. Take 13 away from Hillary and give them to Trump.
There is a sizeable Twilighter cult in America. Clinton will experience a bounce off the clump of cannibalized baby parts.
I put the over/under on the average voter's tolerance of the shrieking tones of Hillary's acceptance speech at 5 minutes.
I'm against Trump. I'm against Hillary. I think Trump is loathsome. I think Hillary is dangerous for the future of politics in America.
If a couple years ago I had to pick a top-ten list of people I most disliked in popular culture, both Hillary and Trump would have been on that list.
Now I have to choose?
I will. And it will be based solely on who I think adds the most longterm danger to this country. Trump is a one-time showman. Clinton is part of a political machine.
@Meeea,
The best thing I've seen come of the leaks is the opening of many of the younger gen's eyes. Perused through 10k+ Reddit comments last night, and they are mighty angry at the censorship and manipulation. I guess they thought their ability to access media 24/7 meant it was truly "open." Seeing how Twitter, Facebook, and their own playground--Reddit--manipulated them over the leak story, (in which they admit the emails themselves provided the evidence of the MSM collusion and the hypocrisy of the left) really hit them hard.
The problem for many of these "youngsters" (& I say this as a certified old white fart) is that, for many of them, this sort of genteel left liberal morality is the only sort of morality they've ever been raised with. To expose the "(wo)man behind the curtain" of the Democratic political leadership as so sordid & conniving must be like the child abuse scandals were for Catholics i.e. "How can you guys screw up this much?".
The only thing that surprised me was their utter shock that D's would bash gays the way they did.
I see among the younger generation the widespread idea that the more flamboyant & outrageous a member of the LGBTQ community is, the more he/she/it plays the communal role that the "Holy Fool" played in Christian Europe. This, of course, is a misapprehension that can only lead to disappointment. People who lead with their sexuality, no matter what it is, quickly become annoying. The LGBTQ community may not be more mentally screwed up than the rest of us, but they're certainly no less. I had more than one niece/nephew start out all starry-eyed about gaydom, only to have reality set in with more experience.
How can Trump be worse?
It can always be worse. But, then, Hillary could do to ALL our foriegn relationships what she did to Libya, so that'd be tough to beat.
@YoungHegelian: People who lead with their sexuality, no matter what it is, quickly become annoying.
People who lead with their race also dilute their credibility. Most of America is sick and tired of 'identity' politics, 'us vs. them'. The only ones who aren't are those who profit from it.
I can understand the horror of some regarding a Trump presidency but I see a 'can-do' attitude and a lot of practical intelligence that we need right now. As many others have expresssed, my main reasons for voting for Trump in November:
1. Supreme Court appointment[s]
2. Second Amendment protection
3. Control of the borders.
If Trump can accomplish these, I'll be happy.
People often pretend they want one thing when really they want another. Maybe the people saying they don't support Trump but really want him to win really are telling you that to support him even though they really want Hillary to win. Or maybe not--whatever.
It's like seductresses (well, sort of, anyway): supposedly, and I suppose it happens, seductresses will pretend they don't want to be loved to try to keep you from loving whomever or because they fear being controlled. But more interestingly, perhaps they can love a girl amenable to being controlled by a male and yet simultaneously really be into the thought of her being controlled. It's easier for a male to control a girl through love if she knows that there are other females that generously truly don't mind his sometimes being in an unloving mood, and so the seductress might just be generously helping the male control the other girl. The thing to do with this latter sort of seductress is to be sure to make her always lose by loving her (with feelings) anyway, which is actually the nicest and most pleasant thing for all females concerned. There's no a priori reason that a girl trying to make a male physically want her in a less loving less holy way actually would cause him to feel any less holy or loving--he may always want her to lose that game and have what it takes to in fact more-or-less always make her lose, even if he wants her physically. Other girls might even think it more special to be loved by a male who maintains his special feelings toward all girls he is about notwithstanding seductresses be about who don't care about the male being loving. Still, one doesn't want such seductresses to be too common, probably, because there is also something special about a girl who wants to be loved a great deal, because being loved with feeling by someone they physically want is sexually pleasant to girls, and girls tend to be more beautiful when they are behaving as if they value sexual pleasure over material pleasure, a valuation more characteristic of better, moral girls. And wanting to be loved by the girl being controlled by the male could if necessary keep this interesting sort of seductress from being a loose cannon even if she remains emotionally oblivious to being loved by the male.
Hi, Meade!
Hi, Annie on the other thread! (I'm right. You would so get out of my car in a tiger lounge.)
PackerBronco said...
I put the over/under on the average voter's tolerance of the shrieking tones of Hillary's acceptance speech at 5 minutes.
Not 73 minutes?
shiloh said...
Nobody cares what I think...................
Yep.
I see among the younger generation the widespread idea that the more flamboyant & outrageous a member of the LGBTQ community is, the more he/she/it plays the communal role that the "Holy Fool" played in Christian Europe.
LOL. I kind of see it like the way cognitively challenged people were treated as touched by God in Cooper's Leatherstocking tales. But your example is better.
Terrorist attacks at home and abroad help Trump. As a rule, they always help the incumbent, and again, Hillary pretty much is the incumbent.
That is even more wishful thinking than most of your posts! Would Pearl Harbor have helped FDR if he had a policy of increasing immigration of military aged Japanese males and doubled down on it after the attack? I don't think so, but you go ahead and believe it! Keep hope alive!
That seems the key part of Trump's support. If not for a massively unacceptable Hillary Clinton, he wouldn't have a prayer.
South Park's "Shit Sandwich vs Giant Douche" mascot election episode never seemed so fitting.
And, Dems here, is it sad that, from now on, anytime you see any "analysis" piece in the news, it is quite legitimate to ask how many Democrats approved the copy before the writer's editor was even involved?
The one thing that has been discussed as a Trump concern (according to Christie), is to change the rules to make firing federal employees easier.
I will be completely on board with that.
@damikesc, I wonder how many people out in "flyover country" are aware that the federal government was unable to terminate one of its employees even though the person in question had murdered his boss?
Most firms, murdering your boss is definitely grounds for dismissal, but not in the federal bureaucracy.
Let the Philadelphian orgy of junk economics, neo-Marxist sociology and envy-stoking commence!
"Nobody cares what I think...................
Yep."
And yet I'm sure Rusty reads 100% of my comments. Plus replies to many of them. So he cares in his own special way! Bless his heart ...
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Sort of like many Althouse cons don't care what Dems have to say, but many are watching the Dem convention. Go figure!
As mentioned I didn't watch the Rep fiasco in Cleveland, in lieu of Trump's speech NBA TV had a documentary on the Dream Team in Barcelona '92. Highly entertaining!
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Since nobody cares, please no more replies as that would also be a big time saver along with the many cons and few libs I already intentionally pass over.
Oh, just because we don't care what you SAY doesn't mean that we don't care about YOU! We all pity you, don't we?
Take care, blessings
Bless you very much
SOOO many blessings!
And yet I'm sure Rusty reads 100% of my comments.
You'd be wrong.
Hopefully if there's a bounce, it'll be a dead cat bounce.
Rusty, I think Chuck has a bit of a crush on you. ;-)
It is a jump, rhyming with Trump.
A bounce would mean Trump started higher, hit bottom, and returned high.
Hillary might have a genuine bounce.
mockturtle said...
Rusty, I think Chuck has a bit of a crush on you. ;-)
Yikes!
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