"But I’m not one to defy future historic events. And I have to be respectful of the responsibility I have to the 15,000 people who are holding tickets to the show and could be stranded somewhere historically trying to get to or from my show. I think it’s clearly better that I alter history in the name of safety and cancel. Besides, if you’ve ever tried to get your deposit back when you rent a banquet hall for a wedding that gets snowed out, you don’t want to even know what the deposit is on Madison Square Jesus Christing Garden is. So. No show. I will be on Letterman tonight, though. So you can yell boo right at my stupid and very handsome face on your tv screen or on your paper towel or your watch or whatever you view Letterman on."
Wrote Louis C.K.
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६८ टिप्पण्या:
The roads were never not visible outside my window, from which I can see the Empire State Building and the Statue of Liberty, but cars were banned from the streets and riders were banned from public transit (which ran through the night anyway, to keep tracks clear).
This was a colossal assault on the freedom of movement for city-dwellers, and it seems the people went along like lemmings. They've abrogated their right to make the decision about whether it's safe to go outside. That's now in the hands of bumbling officials and climate scientists.
It shows how New York Centric our media is. How often do much bigger snow storms happen in the midwest? But you don't see all of CNN set up camp in Holland, Michigan.
I love the whole "better safe than sorry" mentality that has infected government officials since Katrina.
Who cares if people who depend on an hourly wage can't work? Who cares if business owners take a hit?
The most important outcome is that no politician get blamed for not reacting enough.
MayBee,
The reason smaller volumes of snow make much bigger problems here is that there's nowhere to put it. Even in Chicago and other dense Midwestern cities there is plenty of open ground (parking lots, vacant properties) to pile up the snow. That's just not the case here. They have to melt it, which is much more involved, takes longer and creates other potential issues based on temps.
The meme of historic weather is a Propaganda must for the media manipulators naming winter storms and standing outside watching snow flurries flurry. Of course that was an old fashioned Noreaster. Which happens when global cooling has reached the point of restoring 1960s weather patterns.
The climate IS indeed changing. it has returned to a steep cooling trend.
Cuomo gave an "It's not my fault" speech this morning, for shutting down all everything with no snow.
The police also, in the same way, shut down entire interstates to investigate any fatal accident for hours.
Until the police show up, traffic moves just fine.
Sure they steer around severed heads and stuff for a short stretch, but business gets done. Then the cops shut it down.
It's about importance.
Oh, darn it. Louis CK cancelled. Many lives ruined.
Michael Hanlon wrote a great piece in Aeon about how "risk aversion" has ground our technological progress to a halt (well, not literally) in the past 40 years.
http://aeon.co/magazine/science/why-has-human-progress-ground-to-a-halt/
Cuomo and DiBlasio subscribe to that policy as does Obama in governing.
We need more Louis CK's to see it for what it is and have the guys to buck the trend.
We're becoming a nation of sitzpinklers.
Sitzpinkler
Directly translated from German as "a man who urinates whilst sitting down"
For context:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/aug/21/unthinkable-having-a-sit-down
I say it's all worth it, enjoyable even, if they just keep the power on.
Beware of the reaction next time DeBlasio and Cuomo cry wolf.
Before Katrina there were several incidents of government officials ordering evacuations warning of dire consequences and then the hurricane/storm did not land anywhere near New Orleans. Those evacuations were expensive wastes of time and money. When Katrina advanced in the Gulf of Mexico many New Orleans residents tuned out the warnings.
I checked out some morning pics from Boston and it seems to be 20 inches there. Heck, we get that much in Atlanta every ten years or so.
people think sarah palin is really mean, but she has a family of chinese people living in her cunt hole:
kudos to your dirty hole, you fucking jack-off cunt face wondergirl
I want to rub my fathers cock all over sarah palins fat tits;
THat Louis C.K.? A real artist. Classy guy. Funnier than shit.
Clearly, it was Pre-Historic.
Well, there's about 2 feet of fresh powder outside my door right now and we've got another 6 or so hours of white-out snowstorm to go.
I think we'll be right at the 3 foot mark by the end of things. This will be the biggest snowstorm in Central Massachusetts in quite a while.
It's a historic storm. The forecasting problem with New York City is most coastal storms track away from the city. It's a rare storm that keeps tracking northerly enough to hit the city. But when they do, they're catastrophic (e.g. Hurricane Sandy). Really, this storm needed to track only about 80 miles westward for New York City to get hit with 2 feet of snow (like most of Long Island).
Don't worry though, Historic global warming is just around the corner, and it did snow "historic" amounts out at sea, because we have records for snowfall at sea off of Long Island going back to the Vikings at least, right?
Bill Nye was right though, this storm is mixed up with global warming. His absolute confidence in the models should be an example to those of you questioning your various faiths.
The reason smaller volumes of snow make much bigger problems here is that there's nowhere to put it. Even in Chicago and other dense Midwestern cities there is plenty of open ground (parking lots, vacant properties) to pile up the snow. That's just not the case here. They have to melt it, which is much more involved, takes longer and creates other potential issues based on temps.
Understood, KLDAVIS. The same is true of NYC garbage.
City planning. It's a real thing.
But seriously, this wasn't worth all the hype.
"This was a colossal assault on the freedom of movement for city-dwellers"
Excellent point and another, of a long list, of the reasons why big city residence is not for me.
Exactly, MayBee. In fact, as I was walking home yesterday, I remarked that some alleys would solve about 1/2 my problems with NYC.
I'm so glad the science of global warming is at least settled. After all, they can predict 10, 20 or 3o years from now that it'll be at least three to five degrees warmer, why would I ever doubt that sort of prediction? I mean they have forecasting models and such. What could possibly go wrong?
How did society ever evolve to this point with such a nanny force out there?
Even the predicted storm was no great shakes--a couple feet? New York gets that every 2 or 3 years. Just another example of how the government has gotten so big it can't even handle the little things anymore.
"Before Katrina there were several incidents of government officials ordering evacuations warning of dire consequences and then the hurricane/storm did not land anywhere near New Orleans."
I flew into New Orleans the day after Hurricane Ivan veered east and missed the city. It was a very destructive hurricane and damaged Pensacola and other communities in Alabama and Florida.
I was going to the American College of Surgeons convention and wasn't sure if it would be cancelled but went anyway. When I got to NO there NO SIGN OF ANY PREPARATION ! There were no boards on windows or any other evidence of the hurricane.
I was not at all surprised by what happened with Katrina. First of all, it was blown way up by the media camped there and Bush haters all.
Mixed feelings.
Very glad to get only 6" in northern NJ.
Would have been just a small storm shift for us to have gotten three feet.
On the other hand, State officials looked to have panicked too soon.
So you can yell boo right at my stupid and very handsome face on your tv screen or on your paper towel or your watch or whatever you view Letterman on.
My paper towel is in the shop, dammit. (Sure, I could watch on my kitchen stove, but it doesn't get good reception.)
I "survived" hurricane Agnes. Our town was very anal about enforcing evacuations in and orderly manner, ward by ward. Just a couple people died, Down river, in Wilkes Barre, not so much, and about 50 people died. Nobody thought to blame Nixon though, since people still knew their civics about who was responsible for what, and politics was not so far advanced.
"The reason smaller volumes of snow make much bigger problems here is that there's nowhere to put it.
It used to get trucked over to the nearest river and dumped in. You can't do that now?
"It used to get trucked over to the nearest river and dumped in. You can't do that now?"
Who's gonna do the environmental impact study?
That's now in the hands of bumbling officials and climate scientists.
NY (downstate, anyway) are progs. Progs vote for their betters and obey them, apparently.
Also, it's nice to just stay indoors and drink heavily while watching Mary Tyler Moore reruns.
"I checked out some morning pics from Boston and it seems to be 20 inches there. Heck, we get that much in Atlanta every ten years or so."
Only in your mind.
Atlanta's record snowfall is 9 inches on Jan 19, 1893. The monthly record is 13.5 inches in February, 1895.
It's about importance.
Actually, many states now require very detailed investigations of fatalities, which require stopping traffic while measurements are taken and so forth. Federal law may mandate it on interstates, as well.
It is a pain, but it's not because of vanity.
Shorpy has a photo of snow wagons waiting to dump snow in the river in New York, 1899.
"It used to get trucked over to the nearest river and dumped in. You can't do that now?"
Who's gonna do the environmental impact study?
Imagine all that road salt going in to the brackish tidal waters and into to the ocean. Catastrophe!
Newspapers that over-hype potential disasters get bought. TV stations that hype worst possible scenarios get watched. Folks who believe that the climate and meteorology folks have good, validated mathematical models are idiots.
Only in your mind.
I read his Atlanta comment differently. Bragging that they average only 2 inches a year so that it takes 10 years to get up to 20!
(I don't think I'm right about my interpretation though)
Who's gonna do the environmental impact study?
We used to apply a healthy dose of common sense reasoning to environmental impact studies. But common sense has been banned by law from NYC, the Northeast, and anywhere else where the politics are uniformly deep blue.
Folks who believe that (....) meteorology folks have good, validated mathematical models are idiots.
Well, I disagree. But I can't think that the meteorologists at the NWS interpreted the model output very well. There was a lot of uncertainty at the western edge of the storms in the prediction models, and that uncertainty was never communicated to the public. I was just on a call about this storm, and the accumulation envelope for NYC ranged from 6-30" -- but all I read about was 2-3 feet.
The difficulty in a storm such as this, that is coming near, very near, your office, is patience in deciding what will happen. There are plenty of people, though, who want a forecast right now and will not listen to caveats. They also have no concept of probabilities. It's a huge challenge in communicating information.
The forecast from the Boston Forecast Office was a pretty good one.
I've always been amused with the forecaster's "the snowfall total will depend on the track of the storm" line. Hell, I know that! You're job is to tell me the track of the storm.
Especially at the end. I've already seen a lot of "Well, the storm was 50 miles east of where we thought it would be" and my only comment is don't put all your eggs in the ECMWF Forecast Basket ;)
Communicate uncertainty well and people aren't surprised by reality.
The usual messages from from the forecasters:
1) There is no reason to panic.
2) We could all be killed.
These are given more or less together.
Maybee wrote:
I love the whole "better safe than sorry" mentality that has infected government officials since Katrina.
Who cares if people who depend on an hourly wage can't work? Who cares if business owners take a hit?
The most important outcome is that no politician get blamed for not reacting enough.
Well,that's argued from hindsight.
And is complete crap. If the storm did in fact hit NYC square on and the pols DIDN"T do what they did, they'd be criticized for knowing and not being prepared.
But you can't know the outcome until the blizzard actually hits.
I live in NY, so I know what happens when its perceived that the mayor didn't do enough. Bloomberg got zinged a few years ago because the city was buried in snow and the city didn't do enough to clean up.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nyc-mayor-bloomberg-criticized-for-storm-response/
Today on the news one of the anchors asked Christie if there was going to be some second guessing about how they got it wrong. And he responded, if we got it wrong it's because we listened to YOU, the media that was pushing this.
He then said also said that the media was going by the same information.
They were right about the hurricane. They were wrong that it would hit NYC badly. It did hit Suffolk country really badly.
I don't think we should fault deblasion or Christie for assuming that the storm was going to go where the news said it was going to go, and act accordingly.
Maybee wrote:
I love the whole "better safe than sorry" mentality that has infected government officials since Katrina.
Who cares if people who depend on an hourly wage can't work?
Lets assume you're the mayor of a big city and the weather center is saying a hurricane is bearing down on your city and will bring 2 feet of snow. How do you respond?
Don't believe the weather report? Assume that they are wrong and not close anything?
The only responsible course for the mayor is to assume the worst and put in place plans as if that were going to occur.
Original Mike wrote:
I've always been amused with the forecaster's "the snowfall total will depend on the track of the storm" line. Hell, I know that! You're job is to tell me the track of the storm.
I think the actual issue is, they can't really predict it with absolute precision. They can only report on it as its occurring.
Which only shows how little we actually know about the weather. If we can't predict this, how are they assuming we can predict what's going to happen in 100 years via the climate.
rhardin wrote;
Cuomo gave an "It's not my fault" speech this morning, for shutting down all everything with no snow.
And it wasn't his fault. they also shut down everything in Suffolk county and this morning they were on tv talking about how good it was that they shut everything down. So we have two locations facing the same storm doing the same thing, and in one case it's a prudent move and in the other case it's a waste of resources.
In both cases, they don't actually know whats going to happen but have to plan for the worst.
For the record the 1993 snow storm in Atlanta measured two feet at my house. The Atl. Airport south of town may have had it at 14 inches.
Which only shows how little we actually know about the weather. If we can't predict this, how are they assuming we can predict what's going to happen in 100 years via the climate.
Weather prediction is an initial value problem. Climate prediction is an energy balance problem. To use the strengths or weaknesses of one to argue for/against the other demonstrates a lack of understanding.
Weather prediction has made vast strides in the past 50 years. Even 15 years ago the intensity of this storm would have been woefully underdone (I'm talking about MA) or missed completely. The error here was 50-100 miles for one part of the system. Everything else was good: Onset, intensity, etc.
(Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln, kind of thinking, yes).
MadisonMan wrote:
Weather prediction is an initial value problem. Climate prediction is an energy balance problem. To use the strengths or weaknesses of one to argue for/against the other demonstrates a lack of understanding.
My point was that climatologist assert things with a certainty that doesn't really exist whether its about climate models over a long period of time or the path of the hurricane. We know a lot. But we don't know as much as we think when asserting how certain we are.
Also, many supposed experts DO in fact use the one to suggest predicts the other. How many times do you hear those pushing global warming theories suggesting that the blizzard is because of global warming. Or the hurricane is because of global warming. etc etc. So, even though you say they can't really compare the two, they in fact are.
For example:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/26/blizzard-blamed-on-global-warming-warmist-bill-mckibben-blizzards-are-climate-change-at-work/
or
http://weaselzippers.us/205903-msnbc-bill-nye-the-science-guy-blames-buffalo-blizzard-on-global-warming/
What should they have done? They should have warned people about the potential for disaster with sufficient time to plan and make their decision about how to best handle their business.
Banning cars from the streets and banning riders from trains that are still running is heavy-handed, nanny statism. It's the epitomization of 'We know better.'
There's no reason the mayor's best guess as to the reliability of the weather forecast at 1 PM should trump my 'own lying eyes' that I'd have been in no imminent danger if I'd have gone for a spin at 11 PM.
Blanket travel bans set a nasty precedent, not to mention the haphazard manner in which they were implemented and sloth-like speed with which services were reinstated surely cost local businesses millions.
How many times do you hear those pushing global warming theories suggesting that the blizzard is because of global warming.
Just today I heard that. Something about higher-than-average SSTs over the Atlantic Bight. Of course, they didn't say it caused the blizzard, just affected its intensity, which is a probably true statement, for some vanishingly small amounts of affect.
The amount of coastal flooding might also be influenced by a warming ocean. How much? Well, that's not something I can quantify.
KL Davis wrote:
What should they have done? They should have warned people about the potential for disaster with sufficient time to plan and make their decision about how to best handle their business.
Banning cars from the streets and banning riders from trains that are still running is heavy-handed, nanny statism. It's the epitomization of 'We know better.'
but then they inevitably would have to send cops out to all the people stranded or in a ditch under a snow bank and rescue them. Those cars get in the way of the snow plows.
In the case of the subway they stopped running it for passengers. They only ran it to make sure the line was open. Imagine if a train was running and then got stuck on the track. Bedlam would ensue. Vast amount of resources would have to be sent out to deal with rescuing the people on the subway car.
The storm was certainly historic for us here in Lowell, MA.
28 inches of snow so far.
And it's still snowing a little.
Here's what was happening in Maine:
http://www.pressherald.com/2015/01/26/southern-maine-mobilizes-for-approaching-blizzard/
"City officials said plow drivers will focus on keeping main arterials clear, but side streets may become impassable. If there are whiteout conditions, plows may pull over and wait until conditions improve."
If you are out driving your cars on the main arterials and you stall you are blocking the plows from being able to clear the street. And may need to be rescued. The city is already doing enough without having to deal with rescuing your selfish ass because you felt you didn't need to heed the warning.
'Ice Melt' Never heard it called that before (reading the pressherald article, above).
sinz52 wrote:
The storm was certainly historic for us here in Lowell, MA.
28 inches of snow so far.
And it's still snowing a little.
So, Rather than bithch and moan new Yorkers should be thankful that we didnt' get hit the way MA did, and that our govt had planned enough ahead in case we did. Because for sure, if they didn't take it seriously and we got hit with 28 inches of snow, there would be hell to pay from people who's lives were disrupted because the city decided to ignore the warnings.
m stone wrote:
We need more Louis CK's to see it for what it is and have the guys to buck the trend.
Lois CK did in fact cancel his concert, no?
Climate prediction is an energy balance problem. To use the strengths or weaknesses of one to argue for/against the other demonstrates a lack of understanding.
Well, the "energy balance problem" has certainly eluded solution these past 20 years.
Oh yeah, there was a 38% chance that 2014 was .1 degrees warmer than any of the other years we have reliably measured in the satellite era, in one of the data sets, so there's that.
jr565...
You're assuming the storm was as bad as they thought it would be 10 hours before it arrived. It never got close. There's no reason they couldn't have lifted the travel ban once it was clear the numbers in NY wouldn't be historic (Weather.com had revised down to 6-8" forecast for NYC before the ban even went into effect).
And, even if it had been that bad, you've been warned. At some point you have to take responsibility for your actions. If you spin out in a ditch during a blizzard, you'd better have dressed warmly. If no, please meet Mr. Darwin. Government can't protect you from everything bad in this world. Some people stuck on a train is not bedlam...it's a weekly occurrence on the PATH.
i used to think that it would be difficult to get americans to submit to martial law. i was very, very wrong.
"For the record the 1993 snow storm in Atlanta measured two feet at my house."
Well, OK then.
"Well I didn’t know you could call a thing historic if it hasn’t happened yet."
Lewis Lapham rolls in his grave.
KLDAVIS,
"The reason smaller volumes of snow make much bigger problems here is that there's nowhere to put it. "
Can't you just dump it in the water? (And don't say "environmental yada yada..." it's freakin' H2O!)
Holy cow, MadMan! I know this is your area, but perhaps you're being a little too brief with us civvies?
Weather prediction isn't just an "initial value" problem; doesn't "not knowing the exact path of the storm" clearly contradict that?
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