"It's not a question of simply distrust, it’s a question of intense dislike between the two leaders... The more [Secretary of State John] Kerry creates a perception he has a special relationship with [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov, the more he puts Lavrov in a difficult position with officials in his own capital, starting with Putin... It’s clear that when Kerry deals with Lavrov and hopes that because they have overlapping interests, that would allow cooperation where useful, that is not a model of relationship that Putin is prepared to accept.”
Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest, quoted in a Bloomberg piece titled "Inside Obama’s Secret Outreach to Russia."
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४६ टिप्पण्या:
The article concludes: "But by choosing a middle ground between conciliation and confrontation -- not being generous enough to entice Russia's cooperation yet not being tough enough to stop Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe -- Obama’s policy risks failing on both fronts."
"Failing"...
Obama's goal with every policy is to leave the next president, the American people, and possibly the entire world with an unholy mess.
pursuing engagement with Moscow is based on naivety and wishful thinking.
That sums up the WH approach to everything.
The wonderful irony is that the best tool in our arsenal of sanctions is there in spite of everything the WH desires. Namely our new found ability to impact and lower world oil prices. If the WH had it's way, oil would be sky high and Iran and Russia would dominate Europe...
Putin has a trained KGB oficer's understanding of what is propaganda using deceptive smoke and mirrors and what is real actions in one government's way of dealing with another government.
Obama is proud as a human ever has been of his total right to use only propaganda and smoke and mirrors all of the time and get away with it.
So Obama frustrates Putin just as arrogantly as he frustrates GOP congressional guys as he announces no one can stop him.
How do you say "overcharge" in Russian?
- Krumhorn
Wars between similar religions are the most viscious.
That's why Obama and Putin dislike each other so much.
We are fortunate that, as a nation, we are far more resourceful and powerful than the Russians. That insulates us from many of the potential consequences of poor leadership. Reagan's central insight was that the Soviet Union was essentially weak, though dangerous because of its military power. Offset their military power, and most of what remains is weakness. Doing this is a lot harder than just saying it, but it's what we have to do.
Putin doesn't like Obama and Kerry's weaknesses and will take advantage wherever possible.
When Giuliani got a hard-on regarding Putin's 'leadership' I didn't hear many voices on the right administering a reality check to the crypto-fascist. So, I can't take complaints about Obama's leadership in this area seriously. Russia is incredibly poorly run. You have to be a complete idiot or ideologically blinded not to see this.
"But by choosing a middle ground between conciliation and confrontation -- not being generous enough to entice Russia's cooperation yet not being tough enough to stop Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe -- Obama’s policy risks failing on both fronts."
This appears to assume that Obama strives to protect American interest and promote American values.
"NOTICE ME, SENPAI!!!!"
Russia has been poorly run, is poorly run and will be poorly run. At least until the commie pinko remnant is purged, which will be never.
The question is how does the US manage our interests in light of this conundrum? Through military strength and not appeasement. No resets, no apologies, no wink and a nod. Empowering our allies in the region and not abandoning them. Putin needs boxed in tighter than a drum.
Always bad chemistry to have a pussy in one leadership position and a ex-KGB tyrant in the other.
"The question is how does the US manage our interests...? Through military strength and not appeasement. No resets, no apologies, no wink and a nod."
And there, in a nutshell, is how America has been poorly run, is poorly run, and will be poorly run.
"Reagan's central insight was that the Soviet Union was essentially weak, though dangerous because of its military power."
As they were then, so, now, are we.
Putin is first for Putin and second a Russian nationalist. This isn't difficult to understand. Putin's foreign policy is simply whatever advances Russia's interest (and his) first and foremost. Putin isn't looking to be the world's savior or leader. Just Russia's as he sees it. That said what makes relationships bad between the US and Russia is Obama is passive-aggressive. He commands great power but either doesn't use it or uses it badly. Putin can't truly gage who he is dealing with since Obama isn't clearly pushing the US national interest, isn't using American power is a clear and defined manner which confuses Putin and leads him and others to believe that America will tolerate almost anything. America under Obama and the Democrats is both weak and dangerous.
Cookie, if you are referring to the previous 6 years, the current time frame, and the next 23+ months, I couldn't agree more.
Team Zero just wants to escape the next 2 years without a major conflict w/Vlad the Impaler. O will be pounding the reset button like a Whack-A-Mole.
Russia is incredibly poorly run.
So are we.
America has been poorly run, is poorly run, and will be poorly run.
So here I agree with Cookie, though for a vastly different reason than motivates him. Cookie and ARM both fall into the trap of thinking that the US ought to be "run." They're both wrong.
So, I can't take complaints about Obama's leadership in this area seriously.
Talk about fanboi butt-hurt.
ARM utterly incapable of distinguishing between Giuliani's words and Obama's deeds, if you can call them that. And apparently unaware that Giuliani isn't the C-in-f'ing-C and Leader of the Free World.
If only President Tee-Time were as tough on Putin as he was on True the Vote.
The 80s called, Mr. President. The Russians brought their foreign policy back.
...when Kerry deals with Lavrov and hopes that because they have overlapping interests...
Lavrov is a windsurfer?
Teresa Heinz?
because they have overlapping interests...
Lavrov's trying to register his yacht in a tax-free jurisdiction?
because they have overlapping interests...
Because Lavrov also labelled US troops war criminals?
Blogger furious_a said...
Giuliani isn't the C-in-f'ing-C and Leader of the Free World.
So where is the rational distancing from Giuliani's irrational love of totalitarian 'strong men'?
Fail.
But-but-but--he's a genius. A Harvard Law Review editor. Pretty much every law professor in America voted for him, and they are the smartest people in America. (Just ask them.) How can his policies fail?
sean said...
But-but-but--he's a genius. A Harvard Law Review editor. Pretty much every law professor in America voted for him, and they are the smartest people in America. (Just ask them.) How can his policies fail?
Russia is currently on its knees financially. By taking it slow we now have an improved relationship with Germany. How exactly are Obama's policies failing?
Russia is on its knees because the Saudis opened the taps, not b/c of anything President Three-Putt did.
Fail.
furious_a said...
Russia is on its knees
No dispute on the facts, just your interpretation. Just another success, in what is proving to be an unusually successful presidency.
Reasonable Man: did you read the linked article? It is Dimitri Simes, not I, who suggests that there is a strong possibility that Obama's policies may fail. My faith in the brilliance and universal rightness of the law professoriate is unshaken.
Since your quarrel is with Simes, why don't you write an article, in which you (i) explain why your credentials as a student of Russian politics and policy are superior to Simes's and then (ii) go on to how demonstrate how wrong Simes is?
Areasonableman wrote:
Russia is currently on its knees financially. By taking it slow we now have an improved relationship with Germany. How exactly are Obama's policies failing?
it's not Obama's policies causing Russia's economy to fail.
areasonableman wrote:
So where is the rational distancing from Giuliani's irrational love of totalitarian 'strong men'?
Actually its Obama that loves the totalitarian strong man. Note his giving Cuba's strongmen everything they want with not even a hint that there is anything required on their part in return.
I don't see Giuliani saying we should make life easy for Putin or Castro. Do you?
"Kerry has seemed more enthusiastic about mending ties with Russia than Obama himself. After the president gave a blistering critique of Russian behavior in a major United Nations speech, saying that “Russian aggression in Europe recalls the days when large nations trampled small ones in pursuit of territorial ambition,” Kerry urged Lavrov to ignore his boss’s remarks, according to Lavrov. “Kerry said we have so many serious things to discuss that of course that was unfortunate, let’s not focus on that,” Lavrov told Russian reporters."
It is quite humorous John Kerry has to deal with Obama arrogance and dismissal of duty.
Areasonableman wrote:
When Giuliani got a hard-on regarding Putin's 'leadership' I didn't hear many voices on the right administering a reality check to the crypto-fascist. So, I can't take complaints about Obama's leadership in this area seriously. Russia is incredibly poorly run. You have to be a complete idiot or ideologically blinded not to see this.
I don't know what hard on you're referring to on Giulianni's part.
But CUBA is even more poorly run. And Obama could use that fact and the fact that neither Russia nor Venezuela can prop up the dictator any more as leverage to get some concessions. But instead he thinks nows the time to engage the poorly run communist dictatorship and give them stuff.
The dissidents who were just jailed by Castro for taking to the streets to protest lifting the embargo can thank Obama's policies for their jailing.
Give credit where credit is due for policies proposed or enacted, not for circumstances that occur.
I dislike bad chemistry.
an improved relationship with Germany
Now that Obama has stopped tapping Angela Merkel 's cellphone?
Speaking of "on its knees", President Ladies' Tee could rightfully claim credit for breaking Russia's energy leverage over Europe and Ukraine by greenlighting new LNG terminals.
First right call he'd have made on energy policy.
We are back to the 80s. Tip O'Neill told the commies to ignore Reagan, they'll still work with them.
Russia is relatively debt free, especially compared to US. They are used to hard times, unlike US. They are survivors.
Obama put the U.S. taxpayer on the hook for Cuba.
The U.S. voted to be weak. We have to keep learning our lesson. Jefferson was right about every 30 years. Boomers were born and raised during The Cold War. We shouldn't be surprised by any of this. But this is what happens when you don't pay attention.
sean said...
It is Dimitri Simes, not I, who suggests that there is a strong possibility that Obama's policies may fail.
Don't believe your lying eyes, as we watch the Russian economy tank one more time. Instead, place your faith in foreign policy wonks.
I genuinely feel sorry for the Russian people. They have spectacularly bad leadership. World class bad.
I genuinely feel sorry for the Russian people. They have spectacularly bad leadership. World class bad.
Yes, Russian leadership is so awful that from 2000-2014 Russia's GDP increased from $259 billion to $2.1 trillion, Russian life expectancy increased from 64 to 70 years, and Russia's fertility rate rose from 1.2 children per woman to 1.7 (while the USA's fell from 2.1 to 1.9).
Jon said...
Yes, Russian leadership is so awful that from 2000-2014 Russia's GDP increased from $259 billion to $2.1 trillion, Russian life expectancy increased from 64 to 70 years, and Russia's fertility rate rose from 1.2 children per woman to 1.7 (while the USA's fell from 2.1 to 1.9).
When I drunken derelict gets up off the floor he has improved his position, marginally. He is still a drunken derelict rather than the scientific and technological leader than he once was.
"When Giuliani got a hard-on regarding Putin's 'leadership' I didn't hear many voices on the right administering a reality check to the crypto-fascist."
I remember Obama getting a hard-on about Chinese and PLO fascism, while liberals in general had a hard on about Assad, Mao, Castro and the like.
I am sure you cannot quote Giuliani to prove your point though. Correct?
"Russia is currently on its knees financially."
This is because of US private sector developing new technologies like fracking and using it on private lands - everything Obama and liberals stood against. I remember Obama's effort had something to do with Solyndra and "green energy", which sank untold billions of dollars and produced no positive effects.
P.S. Or maybe Russian economy is sinking because Obama is finding the railroad in California.
P.P.S. Liberals claiming success in lower price of oil is like Neville Chamberlain proclaiming in 1944, that D-Day was a success because of the Munich agreement.
“I don’t think that anybody at this point is under the impression that a wholesale reset of our relationship is possible at this time, but we might as well test out what they are actually willing to do,” a senior administration official told me. “Our theory of this all along has been, let's see what’s there. Regardless of the likelihood of success.”
What, you mean another reset? Like the reset button had a faulty connection, and all we have to do is jiggle it?
Kerry has been the point man on dealing with Russia because his close relationship with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov represents the last remaining functional diplomatic channel between Washington and Moscow. They meet often, often without any staff members present, and talk on the phone regularly. Obama and Putin, on the other hand, are known to have an intense dislike for each other and very rarely speak.
There is something grimly funny in the idea that an utterly misguided policy built on selling out our own interests in pursuit of a rapprochement with a country that has no interest in rapprochement is going to founder on the issue of personal diplomacy.
On the one hand, we should pursue the Russian Reset because Obama is so personally special that the normal rules of realpolitik don't apply.
On the other hand, we can't actually pull off the Russian Reset because Obama is such a special snowflake that he can't stand to be in the same room as Putin.
After one meeting with Lavrov in Paris in October, Kerry announced that he had discussed potential U.S.-Russian cooperation on Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Yemen. But the apparent warming was overshadowed by Lavrov’s quick denial of Kerry’s claim that Russia had agreed to assist in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State in Iraq.
...
Putin remains defiant and Russian military assistance to the Ukrainian rebels continues. The Russian leadership has been rejecting Kerry’s overtures both in public and private. Diplomatic sources said that Lavrov has refused to even discuss Kerry’s conditions for partial easing of sanctions. And Putin has made a hobby of bashing the U.S. in public remarks.
So the plan is that we're going to solve all our problems by building a durable partnership with Russia. But in practice, we have no working relationship, no agreement on anything, and we bash each other in public. Oh, and also our leaders hate each other's guts.
The legislative branch has also been active on Russia this year, but its efforts run counter to the administration’s policy and sometimes have the indirect effect of putting more roadblocks in front of the Obama-Kerry push to find a way forward.
On Dec. 18, Obama reluctantly signed a bill authorizing new Russia sanctions and military aid to Ukraine that was overwhelmingly passed by Congress. Afterward, the White House awkwardly said that the legislation did not signify any change in policy.
Did we mention that the US doesn't have a unified position with respect to Russia, and that Obama doesn't have complete control over what he can put on the table? Is that important? That seems like it might be important.
I hope that imposing sanctions on Russia doesn't hurt our plans for close collaboration on Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Yemen.
Also, some experts feel, placing the diplomacy in the Kerry-Lavrov channel dooms its outcome, because the Russians know that Kerry himself has no power to make major decisions and Lavrov has to be careful not to be seen as cozying up to the U.S.
Of course. All successful diplomacy involves junior officials freelancing without any buy in from the top.
“Secretary Kerry is not advocating internally or with Russia for a reset in the relationship, and in fact in meetings he has taken a strong and at times skeptical stance,” one senior State Department official told me.
Or any buy in from the junior officials themselves.
But by choosing a middle ground between conciliation and confrontation -- not being generous enough to entice Russia's cooperation yet not being tough enough to stop Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe -- Obama’s policy risks failing on both fronts.
Failing again, you mean. This isn't a reset. It's a reset of the last reset.
There are three very simple reasons why we will not be resetting relations with Russia any time soon:
1) Germany
2) Poland
3) The rest of Europe
An awful lot of our best allies value the relationship in part as a counterweight against Russia. This is particularly important at times, like now, when Russia appears dangerous, aggressive, and unstable. They don't want us to have good relations with Russia, because they want us to take their side in disputes with Russia. (Diplomatic disputes, I mean, not military).
If our relationship with Russia is too lovey-dovey, countries like Germany will distance themselves from us and try to make nice with the Russians themselves. In some ways, this is already happening.
Right now, Germany is the best ally in Europe and Russia is the worst. Why would you trade the good ally you already have for the bad ally that you have nothing in common with?
Center for the National Interest implicated in Russian spy indroductions. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-russia-butina-exclusive/exclusive-accused-russian-agent-butina-met-with-u-s-treasury-fed-officials-idUKKBN1KC0DE
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