२५ नोव्हेंबर, २०१२
"Thinking about buying a house? Or a municipal bond? Be careful where you put your capital."
"Don’t put it in a state at high risk of a fiscal tailspin." There are 11 states on the "death spiral" list, beginning with California, New York, Illinois and Ohio.
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१५७ टिप्पण्या:
Wow, Michigan is not that list! How did we screw up?
I'm not surprised that people are finally noticing that it takes taxpayers to fund pensioners and civil servants. If you want to pay for pensioners and civil servants then you need to take a hard look at anything that makes it hard for entrepreneurs to start new businesses and for existing businesses to hire more people.
Waiting for Inga, shiloh, Ritmo, and the rest of the dirty dozen to sign in to "refute" Forbes.
Most are solid Democrat. The others have only recently been rescued.
AL and MS are special cases. Confederacy and all.
How enjoyable. Yes, CA is going down, and it's simple math. We tried with the Save our State initiative, prop 187, but it was deemed "unconstitutional" by some stupid, liberal judge. We tried with the proposition that would limit welfare benefits to newcomers, and that was deemed "unconstitutional" by some some stupid liberal judge (oh, it violates the right to travel).
And nothing can save us now. We elected Governor Jerry Brown. He's pushing the state down faster, so we can see how wonderful liberals are.
It's unbelievably pathetic what havoc a bunch of idiot liberals can do to a state. I've heard a lot of them leave the state, and go to other states like Montana, and are roundly despised.
Texas baby.. come invest in Texas but DON'T BRING YOUR LIBERAL YANKEE WAYS, OK?
We don't want this state screwed up like yours.
Oh for chrissakes, does Stevie Forbes really think New Jersey is sooo far away from such supposed financial "sinkholes" as Wall Street and the rest of New York that he'll be spared the financia-geddon? What a crock of self-important pseudo-punditry. Sorry you missed that whole housing bubble, chump, but predicting newer and more creative forms of financial meltdown won't redeem that oversight. Silly wanker.
@Paul, for pity's sake tell them all to stay home. Here in Northern Virginia we've had an influx of economic refugees from Maryland and New Yawk. Where Virginia once was a two-party state, meaning that neither party could go crazy, the dumb sh*ts bring their voting patterns with them and Virginia is trending blue. Apparently they can't make the connection between the economic straits their old states were in and the stupid way they vote.
Here's Ritmo, right on schedule. He doesn't have a clue what the article is all about, but by golly he thinks he's refuted it.
Lemme guess, Mind-Reader Mike. Does it have something to do with desperate pleas to invest in gold? Yeah, I still see those at the bottom banner of conservative websites, too.
And don't forget to stock up on your ammo, while you're at it.
Silly wanker.
Why, I never thought of it that way. Yes, yes, we must spend and spend and borrow and borrow, from the next generation. We need to burden the next generation with the benefits we obtain today from our unionized services, police, fire, and teachers. Meanwhile, we can teach them all about government programs, and how wonderful they are. Hopefully the Indians will continue to come to the US and make software for us, and the Chinese will come and make pharmaceuticals. Though I do understand they are getting harder and harder to make, and there are fewer and fewer of them.
Oh well, the next generation can live off that good feeling of watching their money go to all those unionized pensions, locked in place by good thinky dinky liberals.
OH Dante! YOu're confusing your narratives. The impending financial doom-and-gloom is the talking point you're supposed to parrot for the UNITED STATES! The individual states, themselves, will be ok. Unless you've gone so retrograde as to surpass the 1920s as the best era evar in American history and want a return to the Articles of Confederation. That Alexander Hamilton guy sure was a meddler in a good thing!
Pretty funny that I can correct your talking points for you, huh?
Ritmo. " Oh for chrissakes, does Stevie Forbes really think New Jersey is sooo far away from such supposed financial "sinkholes" as Wall Street and the rest of New York that he'll be spared the financia-geddon?"
"Stevie" Forbes did not wite the article.
"" What a crock of self-important pseudo-punditry. "
In what way?
"Sorry you missed that whole housing bubble, chump, but predicting newer and more creative forms of financial meltdown won't redeem that oversight"
The article does not cover the housing bubble. S
". Silly wanker."
Yes, why yes you are.
Ritmo says buy ammo.
Ah, which caliber? And shouldn't I have a gun to shoot it from?
If you're going to be in the neighborhood, Ritmo, do I need to find someone who sells silver bullets? Bet they're pricy.
Ritmo. " Oh for chrissakes, does Stevie Forbes really think New Jersey is sooo far away from such supposed financial "sinkholes" as Wall Street and the rest of New York that he'll be spared the financia-geddon?"
"Stevie" Forbes did not wite the article.
"" What a crock of self-important pseudo-punditry. "
In what way?
"Sorry you missed that whole housing bubble, chump, but predicting newer and more creative forms of financial meltdown won't redeem that oversight"
The article does not cover the housing bubble. S
". Silly wanker."
Yes, why yes you are.
@Michael, a good liberal doesn't need to read an article to know that he's against it. Don't you know that?
Don't forget the beans and rice, sacks and sacks of them, they can be traded for women and sheep too!
Steve no longer edits his own magazine, Mike? I guess you've ascribed to him a level of irresponsibility we usually associate with private equity guys, like your loser friend Romney.
And about how much did his buddies waste in the latest election? I mean, it's like they've invented a whole new type of bubble economy: POLITICAL OVER-VALUATION!!!!
Hahhahahahahahahhahaha.
And Mike, comment cloning doesn't help your cause. I know you think so highly of your ideas that you can't bear to see them attacked by the likes of me. But if your comment is actually a good one, just let it stand on your own, man. Did you want to franchise each post, or something? They are actually not individual business, my friend. There is not an actual cash register lurking behind the pixels, much as your eyes might imagine that.
Ritmo. Get a pal to read the article to you.
Ritmo. You know about blogger double posting? You don't? Get a pal to tell you how it works.
Take it easy on the libs folks. Math is impossible for them and even arithmetic is tough. So they can't really grasp the points made by the Forbes article.
It's ok. As soon as you pay someone to prevent it from happening.
Oh, what's that? You can't find anyone you can pay to work out the Blogger glitch?
We will have to ring up Larry and Sergei and get them to work something out for you. I hear Obama has their ear.
Randall Lane is the editor of Forbes
Aaaand. Don't invest in companies that don't have a sustainable business model or one that requires government subsidies to exist. {Green energy, solar companies, General Motors} Don't buy stocks in companies that have no earnings (P/E ratios) or any near or long term assurance of earnings.
Don't be fooled by the bond ratings and especially muni bond ratings. Be aware of GO bonds versus Revenue Bonds. At these low interest rates, unless you actually ARE Warren Buffet, the tax advantage is nil and your total after inflation return is less than zero. Suckers buy bonds.
Don't buy bonds. Period.
Ritmo says buy ammo.
Ah, which caliber? And shouldn't I have a gun to shoot it from?
Depends on what you want to do with the gun. Hunt? or Protect your house and person?
Personally, we are buying 22 ammo, 12 gauge shotgun shells** and 380 ammo. ** Have a friend who is into sporting clays and he reloads....lots of shells. We are missing a good deer rifle, so hopefully we will soon buy a 30.30 or a .243 rifle. The deer are generally close in range and a 30.06 is a bit more powerful for me at his stage in my life.
AJ Lynch. It is doubly hard to understand articles you dont read.
And Steve is Editor-in-Chief, douchebag.
What is wrong with you?
Oh yeah, you think you always have to be right.
Oh Dear. The ammo digression caught Bunny's ear. I guess now we will have to derail talk of the financial apocalypse with talk of the coming race war, or somesuch.
You guys are endlessly fascinating. In a predictable way.
DBQ. My wife traded municipals for many years. We do not and would not own one. I have done a couple of deals that had a municipal component, revenue only, and to observe one getting done is to observe armies of lawyers on the govt. teat on the march, munching fees.
Here in Illinois, the big issue is the state employee pension fund. It's massively underfunded, or maybe massively overpromised. Whatever.
But not to worry, our genius Governor, Pat Quinn, has created a lame animated mascot - Squeezy, the Pension Python - symbolize how much the politicians have fucked up the state's finances.
Unfortunately, he doesn't have a plan of any kind to actually, you know, deal with the pension issue. But we have a cartoon mascot, so we got that going for us.
Anyway, Quinn is a supersmart, caring, compassionate liberal Democrat and not an icky, heartless Republican, so things are bound to turn out OK for us, I guess.
Ritmo. And you believe the editor in chief of a magazine edits the articles in the magazine? What is wrong with you besides being a dipshit? You really should have gone to college, or finished if you started.
Don't invest in companies that don't have a sustainable business model or one that requires government subsidies to exist.
So, no coal companies?
Blue model blue states. Surprise.
Michael: You should learn about personal responsibility sometime. Arguing that Steve Forbes should have no responsibility over what gets printed in his magazine shows you to be as out-of-touch as Romney.
Ritmo. The coal companies do not require subsidies to exist but they rather enjoy them. Solar companies and GM actually require, need, must have, the subsidies or they cannot exist. Distinction with a difference. But cool Kos kid talking point anyway and useful in kid talk everywhere.
"Don't buy stocks in companies that have no earnings (P/E ratios) or any near or long term assurance of earnings."
After the democrats get through taxing it all, "earnings" will be a thing of the past.
Ritmo. I argued nothing of the kind as you know.
The coal companies do not require subsidies to exist but they rather enjoy them.
Which I'm sure is just fine with you.
Or isn't it?
@ Michael. When I was working, I would purchase individual revenue bonds in States that were not California, that had good interest rates in agencies that have a strong business models in services that people would be using (water, sewer, etc.) with better than 5% coupon and callable at a premium. ONLY for those clients in very high tax brackets. Some people wanted to buy them on the principal of just not paying taxes, when it really wasn't a good financial move for them.
Still....even then I felt that bonds were a high risk investment and kept the portfolio spread out as to location, industry, duration, laddered etc.
Michael: You seem to be on edge tonight. It's fun to poke fun at the owner of a magazine for a predictably ridiculous article, predicated, as many Republican fixations nowadays are, on creative sources of global fear-mongering.
Somewhere on his staff, sits a pundit. I identify Steve as the most pundit-worthy. I don't know what his track record on doom-und-gloom was before 2008, but I have a feeling it was imperfect. I take his silly magazine's article in the same light. Maybe you should, too.
Could someone explain why Alabama & Mississippi are on the list? Are there really a lot of "takers" in both states, neither of which has ever had a large body of state government workers or particularly generous welfare benefits?
I'm not looking for snark, but real answers as to what's the debt burden that these states are carrying.
Ritmo. Totally fine with me that they enjoy their subsidies. Wouldnt you enjoy them?
Six Blue, three red, one swing. Nice blend.
By population, however, the blues vastly predominate.
De-snarkify this, Young Hegelian.
I know it's technically a different topic, but related and interesting.
Ritmo. You should actually read the article.
....predicated, as many Republican fixations nowadays are, on creative sources of global fear-mongering.
Because, you know, this is the first Ritmo has heard of Illinois, California, NY, etc, being in dire financial straits, with little things like CA being unable to pay its vendors on time, towns going bankrupt, and all these states having Democratic governors now at odds with various civil service unions trying desperately to bring costs under control.
What color is the sky on your world, Ritmo?
Ritmo. Totally fine with me that they enjoy their subsidies. Wouldnt you enjoy them?
No. I would actually ask what the need is, determine national energy and environmental priorities, and use those answers to inform my interest in the degree to which I'd "enjoy" that money. But that is because I am moral. You, I take it, are not. I don't worship golden calves or anything. I don't find blood-money or bribe-money to be decent ways of going about things.
Ritmo rides the high horse. I am moral says Ritmo.
Ask Alexander Hamilton, Young Hegelian. News of a resuscitated Articles of Confederation have been greatly exaggerated.
Ritmo,
The article you posted concerns only federal transfers.
That has nothing to do with a state's balance sheet. Nor does it have anything to do with a state level taker/maker balance.
Could you try again with something that's actually relevant?
And you are not, says Michael.
We already know that.
Interesting. I expected Maryland to be on that list but it is not.
Inga said...
Don't forget the beans and rice, sacks and sacks of them, they can be traded for women and sheep too!
Interchangeable in the Moslem world, although I don't see too many people dumb enough to give up valuable food resources for Oop.
O Ritmo Segundo said...
Steve no longer edits his own magazine, Mike? I guess you've ascribed to him a level of irresponsibility we usually associate with private equity guys, like your loser friend Romney.
You're only a loser if the election wasn't stolen and that's the only was Zero could win.
Ask Alexander Hamilton, Young Hegelian. News of a resuscitated Articles of Confederation have been greatly exaggerated.
Fuck off and die, Ritmo. You're an idiot & a waste of skin.
Ritmo. Tell us more about yourself and your great character traits. It is good to be reminded by you of how good a person you are and how superior to your fellow commenters. We are prone to forget observing as we do your actual behavior.
O Ritmo Segundo said...
So, no coal companies?
Chinese coal companies, Ritmo. Or Indian. Any Australian mining company.
For American companies, oil and natural gas would be good. Avoid solar and wind power. Basically they are government securities, since any economic viability depends on large scale government subsidies, which inevitably will disappear.
Any other questions?
But it's interesting that you parade it around as if it speaks well of you or as if it's a way to win an argument. Especially when you waxed indignant when you protested and screamed about how much integrity you have.
Which we now know, is just for show.
Honesty and trust will become even more important in the internet era. Your heydays of taking pride in a lack of integrity are limited, Dude.
@pm317,
Interesting. I expected Maryland to be on that list but it is not
Since I live in it, I did too.
But, as with the AL & MS examples above, I think there are some strange criteria that skew the results.
Nice character trait you demonstrate above, Young Hegelian.
But yes, the federal government won't allow states to somehow financially "die", which is apparently a sentiment you seem to like wishing upon others.
Still, it won't happen. And no armageddon. Sorry to spoil the party.
Ritmo. You are in the healing industries I believe, a lab worker perhaps. Hope you arent involved in that meningitis mess that people are croaking from right and left. Not much integrity in that business I gather since it seems to go on and on.
Tell us more about yourself and your great character traits.
Well, I don't equate money with morality. That alone is a great start. Pity that you don't understand why.
Of course most Americans ask, what capital?
Not involved in that at all, Mike. Try again, I guess.
@ritmo,
But it's interesting that you parade it around as if it speaks well of you or as if it's a way to win an argument. Especially when you waxed indignant when you protested and screamed about how much integrity you have.
Even decent men have their limits, ritmo. You live and work under the delusion that you are a decent & intelligent human being. Your behavior here shows that's not the case. I don't think I'm going to get a lot of dissent on that judgement here.
If even decent commentators tell you to fuck off, ritmo, seriously, what do you think that says about you?
"Right and left" is a funny way of putting it.
Do you think that "right and left" is a number that approximates those who die each year of infections made resistant to antibiotics that your agribusinesses use inappropriately?
These kinds of things might keep you up at night, if you had a soul. And a brain would help, too. But for you, a soul is the higher priority, I see.
YoungHegelian. I believ that the relatively small populations of Ala and Miss must skew the taker/maker ratio. He appears to simply count people as opposed to the money involved so that a small state with lots of small towns would have lots of state, county, municipal, federal workers.
I don't think I'm going to get a lot of dissent on that judgement here.
What's funny is how I decided to bite my tongue for every day of every week that I saw Rasmussen's prediction of a Romney landslide, while the empiricists told you along how wrong you were. So no, a supposed projection of "decency" does not guarantee good judgment on anything, let alone the supposed decency of others. It's just good, old fashioned back-slapping.
If even decent commentators tell you to fuck off, ritmo, seriously, what do you think that says about you?
I think it says that their capacity for empiric observation sucks. See above. Ignorant people are overwhelmingly limited in their capacity for ethical behavior, because ethical behavior requires reasoning to navigate questionable scenarios. Crowd-pleasing politesse is not a substitute for that.
Contrary to what you were taught to believe by the American film and TV industry, Forrest Gump is not the moral exemplar. Actually knowing about things helps. An ability to make use of evidence helps. And in a complex society, it's necessary.
Ritmo. You are too humble. Please amplify your self hug about your superior morality. Really, we need to learn more of your good traits.
@Ritmo,
Why trouble yourself to help us poor benighted savages emerge out of our darkness?
Think of your blood pressure.
Do yourself a favor and decamp to some lucky blog where your brilliance will be clearly & promptly recognized by all.
Unlike here.
Well, it starts with questioning myself, Michael. Which is something you would never sink to doing, right?
Seriously, yeah, I wax indignant and hyperbolic every now and then. Ok, sometimes a lot. But I realize when it's important to separate entertainment from serious and ethically problematic issues. Or at least I'm willing to do so. You obviously aren't.
Tell me how that makes you morally decent, please.
So when people of good faith tell Ritmo to fuck off it is because they are stupid. And limited in their ability to behave ethically.
Dude, you must have loads and loads of friends! LOL. Hahahahahaahahha
Why trouble yourself to help us poor benighted savages emerge out of our darkness?
Because I care.
And also because I find the challenge of it interesting.
I know, you guys have convinced yourselves that caring is the height of immorality. But thousands of years of civilization tell us otherwise.
Of course, I could be wrong. I don't think I am, but I could be.
Yet, I think it's important to distinguish between dignity and ethical responsibility. Maybe that's just me... but there would be a hell of a lot less interesting discussions if it weren't so.
Nope, my friends must be more intelligent than yours, Michael. And more decent. Better vocabularies, too.
But you could entertain me by telling me about how doglike you are in your subservience to your own friends, lest they drop kick you for, you know, bucking the peer pressure to "say the right thing".
"But yes, the federal government won't allow states to somehow financially "die", which is apparently a sentiment you seem to like wishing upon others."
This is what these states are counting on. Politically, the feds will try and maybe a majority of the rest of the country will agree to bail out California. This would be a continuation of the policy whereby the prudent are called upon to pay for the profligacies of the imprudent.
But what happens when the federal government can no longer borrow to fund all the bailouts?
@DBQ, taking my tongue out of cheek, I wouldn't own a .22 if I got it free. If the deer really are close, as in 40 yards or closer, then there's a reason why double-aught is called "buck shot."
The 30-06 is a military cartridge; you probably know that. Have you tried out the 7.62x39 cartridge? Ruger makes the mini 30 that chambers that round and might be a good compromise gun for hunting plus home defense. If you get a Winchester in 30-30 then consider having a gunsmith who tunes rifles for cowboy shooting have a go at it. You've probably seen videos of cowboy shooters posted on YouTube (or you could go to a local SASS meet). With a well-tuned Winchester the best shooters can get off ten aimed shots almost as fast as someone shooting aimed shots (not spraying) from a modern semi-automatic autoloader.
And if you think Ritmo might be coming around have that reloading friend of yours load up some silver bullets for you. Just sayin'
Big Mike: Murder threats are creepy. Just so you know. Best to avoid them.
This is an article to pay back the blue states.
Ritmo. You think you elevate yourself by denegrating others and supposing they fail to possess the qualities you ascribe to yourself. You might read about ethics before you lecture others on the topic because hubris stands in the path of the ethical man. Begin with Aristotle's ideas on hubris.
3. 1 Timothy 6:10
For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.
Michael, the money lender, you of all people have no right to judge another as to decency.
What's hilarious about this exchange is how quickly the main point of the article got derailed -- the concept of "takers outnumbering makers", and how "blue state flight" threatens to further reduce the number of makers that are needed in the blue states to generate revenue.
Instead, the "discussion" is Ritmo insulting anyone who dares comment on the actual article. So far, Michael, Big Mike, Dante, Hegelian, and DBQ have been targeted. Oh yeah -- Steve Forbes too, for daring to allow this analysis to get published.
Don't get me wrong -- the Insult-O-Rama is entertaining in its own way. It just doesn't have much to do with the gist of the article, which is investment advice.
As a native Californian, my biggest fear is that a serious attempt will be made to repeal Prop 13, which would basically make it impossible for the retired middle class to keep their homes (which is why is was passed in the first place). At that point, I'd need to pull up stakes and leave too. I'm hanging in there for now, but I definitely won't invest in munis here or any other blue state. Like DBQ says, the tax incentives aren't enough to offset the poor returns.
cubanbob said...
Fortunately the adage that God loves fools, drunks and the United States apparently still holds true. The states listed in the article are in the short and mid-term future in a death spiral. There is no question that is true. However in the longer term a lot of those states have considerable natural resources and more important abundant farmland and water and those resources will provide the floor to the spiral downwards. Over the longer term as countries like China and India grow and prosper they will demand to eat like us in both in terms of quantity, quality and variety of different foods. The exports of those resources in the long term will provide enough taxable revenue to keep those states from imploding. So those on benefits and those on public pensions will take a hair cut to various degrees but the resources I mentioned will provide the floor to keep those states from completely imploding.The real question is will those states continue intact as they are or will there be a movement to fragment those states from the resource rich areas from the urban areas?
In the interim the article is pretty spot on about investing GO bonds in those states along with residential real-estate in the urban areas of those states where the the public pension debt bomb will hit the hardest.
Michael: Don't you think that the idea that you can buy and sell other people off no matter what the issue smacks of more than a bit of hubris?
I can understand a pre-modern society needing to not offend an established order. And didn't Aristotle have a practical interest in avoiding hubris? It might have been among the charges that did Socrates in, not that any of those philosophers would have thought it right.
There is a difference between evidence/reasoning-blind arrogance and simply having the confidence to make an effective if unpopular argument. I am willing to admit error when it is shown. Don't you think everyone else here should abide by that standard, too, though?
"what do you think that says about you?"
R. seems to come and go. Weeks will be Ritmo-free, then BAM! I notice his little .png file popping up all over the place, over and over and over and over and over again. I generally try to avoid delving into the minds of others, but my guess is he had a shitty Thanksgiving, and decided to come over to Althouse and pick fights and vent.
Pianoman. At some point prop 13 has to go. The issue for a retired person willbe that as it goes so goes whatever liquidity you might have. The velocity of sales would decline and the impact of the new rates a drag on values. You have very spikey real estate markets to begin with. That will be deadly.
“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.
Matthew 6:24
Another one for you Michael.
This is an article to pay back the blue states.
Are you suggesting that Forbes invented the financial problems of Illinois and California as some kind of political payback? LOL. I wish.
Nope, my friends must be more intelligent than yours ...
You have friends? Imaginary ones, surely.
Inga. I am not a money lender. As usual you are two or three laps behind and come chirping in as though you are in the actual race. You are not. Ever.
I am willing to admit error when it is shown.
As in not reading the Forbes article before commenting on it?
O Ritmo Segundo said...
I don't think I'm going to get a lot of dissent on that judgement here.
What's funny is how I decided to bite my tongue for every day of every week that I saw Rasmussen's prediction of a Romney landslide, while the empiricists told you along how wrong you were.
Of course, that's why Barry had a concession speech all ready, we were told.
Axelrod fed Ned Silver the numbers they wanted to achieve when the vote fraud started. That's how he was so "prescient".
Cubanbob you are correct. Those resources are why many of them feel that they can be profligate.
But this argues for, not against, letting them go bankrupt. Wash out the debt, including the excess pension promises, and let them reboot.
Why should the rest of the country bail out these naturally wealthy states for their lack of foresight?
Michael, it's not a race. You are one of he most vile commenters here, arrogant, condescending, you say you are an investment banker, that's as low as a money lender in God's eyes. Many passages in the Bible about those who love money.
Talk about hubris, you have the nerve to tell another person that they are beneath you somehow? You are the lowest of the low, if the world were to collapse what would make you worth saving? What skills do you possess besides counting and loving money?
Their point, piano man, is sell now and avoid the rush.
Inga. You do not know what an investment banker does. Any investment banker. You havent a clue.
Oh, and Ritmo, I'm not making any sort of threat at you or anyone else. If you are afraid of everyone who owns a gun then you must spend your entire life locked in the bathroom cowering in the tub. Nearly everybody owns guns. Some because of the threat of home invasion, and some of us because we compete in shooting events. I compete in shooting events. Does that terrify you? You poor dear fellow.
Oh, you're upset about the silver bullets? Folklore has it that silver bullets are a defense against the undead. You know, zombies and werewolves and things that go bump in the night. That's all. Just a joke comparing you to the undead rising. Sorry you didn't get it.
Sleep tight, little Ritmo. Big Mike isn't coming after you with guns. Or knives. Or his martial arts skills.
Michael, I don't care what you do actually. It's your nasty elitist personality that turns m stomach.
Don't see how the Obama Administration is going to have an easy time bailing out those deep blue states. Maybe with the 111th Congress, but that changed with the 2010 elections. And, I don't see using TARP money, like he did with GM. The Dems demonized the Republicans this last election at a level rarely seen before, and I don't see that leading to comity, esp. to bail out the Dem machines and all the government workers in those states. And, Medicaid waivers and the like are only going to help a little.
It should be interesting.
I live in NM and this is nothing surprising since the state has been run by democrats since statehood, and not the smart, corrupt ones either. Dumb and corrupt. Add in dismal education statistics (a cultural problem, more so than a system deficit) and an considered attempt to attract out of state retirees (e.g. California) who think wind farms are better than oil wells, its going heavy taker.
Inga. I would lay off the booze were I you. It shows, my dear.
Inga I don't understand your problem with Micheal? Do you seriously believe that investors are all fools and will continue to blindly invest their money in states and municipalities that are for all intents and purposes fiscally insolvent given their current and future obligations? States and local governments can't print money nor they they ever increase taxation to the point they are completely uncompetitive to states and localities that are more fiscally prudent. He is simply stating the obvious. That you and others may not wish to see that reality doesn't make the problem go away. And however much one would like to believe the federal government will bail those states and localities out it isn't likely to happen. There is no benefit for the fiscally prudent states to have their members of congress vote to do so, especially in the house. And even if they were to do so, not only would that mean higher taxes for those states all else being equal but the federal government would go beyond any reasonable possibility of being able to service that debt and hence no sane investor would buy federal paper at that point. So unless the federal government intends on forcibly requiring savers to invest in government securities and that has no chance of happening, there is an outer limit on how much the government can borrow and more specifically for what it can borrow. As Herbert Stein said when something can't go on, it won't.
Big Mike, nearly everyone owns guns? Maybe in your world of right winger nut land. Mike you come across as someone who sits in his shelter with his stack of beans rice and guns, oh and lotsa lotsa ammo, waiting for the apocalypse, maybe you and DBQ can exchange tips on gun cleaner or beef jerky.
@Bruce,
Don't see how the Obama Administration is going to have an easy time bailing out those deep blue states..
I don't think it's a question of who wants to or who doesn't. I think there simply isn't enough money floating around anywhere in the USA to bail out CA, NY, or IL. Especially more than one of them.
Cubanbob, his arrogance and condescending nature are very disgusting to me.
I think that something else has to be kept in mind here. It isn't clear if states can go through bankruptcy (cities can), but if they did, we have the experience of the Obama Administration forcing the senior lenders to take a bath so that the much lower ranking union pensions could survive. Would, or really could, that happen with a state failing? It is easy to believe that the government worker pensions would be preferenced over the bond holders, regardless of their rankings in preference. After all, unionized GM workers are a far, far, smaller force in Dem party politics than are the unionized government workers (esp., of course, the teachers' unions - even a decade or so ago, 1/4 delegates to the Dem convention were teachers on their summer break).
Not a dynamic that would making lending to these states the least bit attractive.
"his arrogance and condescending nature are very disgusting to me."
Other people's doesn't seem to bother you much, though.
@Michael: I used to think that Californians were smart enough to realize the reason why Prop 13 was passed in the first place. But then they re-elected Jerry Brown as governor, and then passed a tax increase 54-46. It wasn't even close.
Something is happening to this state, and it's not going to end well. Business flight is going to continue, and the bean counters are going to continue playing budgetary games to try and balance the budget. It's not going to work. Cities are going to continue discharging pension obligations through bankruptcy (San Bernadino), the business climate will continue getting worse (climate change regulations), and the revenue will continue to decline. I can't see how any of this will turn around.
I can't leave yet though. It's hard to find work here these days, and I'm blessed to have a job. I'm sort of a prisoner here until I can cash out my chips and retire.
Michael, perhaps it's you who needs a drink. I would if I had to live in your skin.
Pianoman. I hear you. I lived in the Bay area for a decade and I lloved it. My problem was that it was too good to be true and I did not want to raise my children in an environment where everyone was rich and the only black guy around was Willie Mays! Victor Hanson has an excellent article in City Journal about why it is worth sticking it out in Calif.
@Inga, you need to open your mind a bit. Here in Virginia lots of people hunt and fish for sport, and some even hunt and fish because they're poor and can get meat that way. Civil War reenacting is popular, and Revolutionary War reenacting groups are around though not as popular. Ordinary human beings who work at real jobs compete in skeet shooting, trap shooting, USPDA, "cowboy shooting," target shooting, and various forms of black powder target shooting. If you find something wrong with all those guns, the problem is with you and not the people who own them.
Inga, for someone who is as thin-skinned as you are, and who takes offense as easily as you do, you sure have fun dishing it out. Now be a nice old lady and run along now, because pretty soon people will let you have it, and deservedly so. Then you'll get all weepy-eyed and that's not good for your digestion.
Big Mike, how how interesting that 8:57 PM comment was. Very telling. I don't get my stomach upset by those I care nothing for, such as strangers like you. You are quite creepy Mike.
You don't need forbes to tell you where the makers/takers live.
Just take a look at the national map showing the red/ blue counties. Of course it won't happen, but just imagine if the "makers" decided to only make enough to supply themselves, and fellow makers in other red counties....
Big Mike says:Sleep tight, little Ritmo. Big Mike isn't coming after you with guns. Or knives. Or his martial arts skills.
One of the best things about the internet is the vast amount of tough guys you can encounter online. Awesome.
Levi Starks says: Just take a look at the national map showing the red/ blue counties.
Yes, please do that. You'll find that the blue counties are the counties where the big economic, financial and cultural centers (sometimes called big cities) are located. That's true even, or perhaps especially, in Texas. But yeah, makers need to go Galt and all that! Those pastures and two-stoplight towns are a-calling!
@Maguro/
Didn't know you were living in my old homestate. What "y'all" now need is for my HS classmate (well, two years my junior) ex-Gov Jim Edgar to come out of retirement to give the good Prairie Staters a dose of "good government."--as if Illinois will ever see the like of an honest "good government" Gov like Jim again, lol.
Ritmo- It is not that people don't care. Golden hearted intentions don't always lead to a positive outcome. Why should "caring" about teachers or other "takers" trump caring about property tax paying citizens. Why don't the union thugs care about anyone other than themselves? And yes, they deserve to be called thugs because they just demand everything with no concern for who they harm with their greed and unintended consequences.
@Maguro II
PS: Jim had a brother two years older than me who was the polar opposite of his goody two-shoes little brother--a REALLY inventive hell-raiser, lol. (Plus married one of the most beautiful women I've ever met, his HS sweet-heart who was a cheerleader at EIU where both went to college. PLUS, Jim's wife Donna taught grade school in the little town of Ashmore next door with my mother, lol))
@somefeller, I'm not tough. I just have fun dumping snark on the snarky. The Internet is a gutter in which the weak-brained like you and Ritmo and Inga can spew filth. I just happen to get some of my jollies spewing back at you. I already know I'm not going to convince you. For that you'd have to have an open mind and yours is shut tight. So why shouldn't I have some fun?
Now as for your follow-on comment, do the blue state cities generate as much wealth as they consume? Once the tipping point is reached, expect bad things to happen. The tipping point was passed a long time ago in Detroit. What's the result? Berlin on VE Day wasn't much worse. Will the denouement be enough for the sane amongst us to join the survivalists in stocking up on beans and ammo? I don't think so. But perhaps in ten years we'll look back and see that they were right. Who knows?
Why should "caring" about teachers or other "takers" trump caring about property tax paying citizens.
I think you meant to say "carried interest earning" citizens. But the point is the same.
Because they have enough people looking out for them and ways of being taken care of. If it helps you, try understanding it as prioritization. It is simply wasteful to care more about those who have an easier time fending for themselves and enough resources to do it with than it is for those who do not. It is a perverse reversal of basic social values to pretend otherwise, and a situation which no social order can endure, or any aspect thereof - the economy included.
Economics is about incentives. To invest more tax deductions in those whose performance has no longer been shown to help the economy is bad incentivizing. People need to understand that their government recognizes food, shelter and life as greater priorities than the amount of a tax loophole that is not going to any of those things. They have low price elasticity of demand, unlike greed and luxury - which is potentially endless. You take care of basic priorities first.
David said...
Cubanbob you are correct. Those resources are why many of them feel that they can be profligate.
But this argues for, not against, letting them go bankrupt. Wash out the debt, including the excess pension promises, and let them reboot.
Why should the rest of the country bail out these naturally wealthy states for their lack of foresight?
11/25/12 8:27 PM
David, states are sovereign. They can't go bankrupt in the legal sense.They can however repudiate, renegotiate or simply default on their debts. No one ever said dealing with a sovereign is risk free.
As for the other states bailing them out, that simply isn't going to happen. As I said above in another comment, their is no upside in them doing so and even if they agreed to do so the expanded debt load would crush them as well. What will happen when those states can longer continue as they are presently doing they will either repudiate, renegotiate or default on the amount of their debt necessary to bring their debt in line with what revenues they can reasonable collect long term and still provide the services that taxpayers will demand as reason to pay taxes. That is why I said there is a floor to what those states and local governments will be able to fund and a ceiling to what the tax dependent voters will be able to extract.
No matter how difficult some states make it for local governments to go bankrupt and no matter what state courts rule or how many federal judges require those local governments increase taxes to fund those pension and other 'entitlements' they can't keep the residents from cutting their losses and leaving. Relatively few people are going to continue to pay ever more and higher local taxes just to maintain someone else's pension and benefits at the expense of services provided to them. If local taxes reach the point of being largely spent on the benefits and pensions of former civil service employees to the detriment of current services nothing will keep people from leaving. That reality will sink in eventually.
One good thing about a sovereign default is that it teaches investors their is always risk when dealing with a sovereign, especially a profligate one. Several Southern States in the early 19th century defaulted on their bonds. They paid the price in the long term when they could not float GO bonds for decades. Indeed some of them could not float a GO until the beginning of the 20th century. Investors have long memories. And even if the profligate state were able to float GO bonds after a limited default or repudiation they would have to pay a rather high rate to investors to compensate for the perceived risk. Just ask Argentina.
Ritmo sure does know a lot of big words. LOL.
Oh, anyone who disagrees with Big Mike is "weak-brained" but I somehow doubt that this bit of arrogance will get called out.
The Internet is a gutter in which the weak-brained like you and Ritmo and Inga can spew filth.
U mad bro?
For that you'd have to have an open mind and yours is shut tight.
And we Americans are so fortunate to have people like yourself and other Tea Partiers to show us what it means to think clearly and without prejudice.
Now as for your follow-on comment, do the blue state cities generate as much wealth as they consume?
By and large, yes. That's one of the reasons why people move to them and why even in red states, the places where talent and money concentrate (Austin, Houston, Atlanta, the NC Research Triangle) are blue.
The tipping point was passed a long time ago in Detroit.
The same can be said for more than a few methland small towns in red states or red areas of blue states.
But perhaps in ten years we'll look back and see that they were right.
In twenty years, we'll hear Republicans claiming how great Obama was against the current liberal bogeyman. Sort of like how JFK became a conservative hero in the 90s and one heard many conservatives getting a Strange New Respect for Bill Clinton in recent years.
Neither will Maguro's condescension.
Are small words a sign of... what, exactly? A better argument? An easier transition from using ones and zeros?
I think the lesson is that you should know exactly where you are invested so you can better manage your risk. A Blanket Condemnation of an entire state is about as worthwhile as saying North Dakota is safe.
You can lose your shirt on a 'safe' investment and you can make a bundle on something risky. You can't be lazy though, and expect to be un-burned.
Truth is, if you want return, you have to do something with your money. It's not like you can get any decent interest rates. The letters to the editor here are routinely filled with retirees who suffer because of the Stock Market not showing sufficient returns (and these are WI state pensioners, and the WI Pension is pretty good -- but it doesn't guarantee anything, which makes planning difficult).
Plan for the worse and hope for the best is my motto. Don't carry debt.
Ritmo,
There are other ways to borrow money. Like, in CA, they overestimated the return on the pension fund by a few percentage points, expecting to get 7.5%, and that leads to $500,000,000,000+ future Californians have to pay for government services we incur today.
I don't know how that fits into your socialist viewpoint. To me, it seems "unfair." But, maybe to you it is how it ought to be.
And there are lots of bonds that need to be repaid, and cities are going belly up, all with their own major pension problems. As an example, the average firefighter in San Jose makes $150,000 per year, and the city has to pony up an additional 40% on top of that, since the pension funds haven't been doing so well. None of these things stopped the firefighter's union from getting rid of the young firefighters by getting to sane compensation (really, 3 times the median household income is a bit much, plus that pension equates to a 3,000,000 dollars since firefighters get to retire at 55, and have end pensions adjusted for inflation higher than their salaries while working).
Then there are all the illegals, and their brood. Now, I don't mean to be racist about this, but somehow, with 50% of the K-12 students being Hispanic, and having a low median household income ($39K/year), and multiplying greatly with a fertility rate of 3, well, the numbers don't work out. The school costs alone dwarf the median taxes for Hispanics alone, let alone those expensive firefighters, good old boy's club, LEOs, etc., who can't hire anyone because their salaries and pensions are so high.
That's why cities in CA are going bankrupt. That's the whole point of the article. Now, I can quibble with the article in many ways. And I think the article misses some huge points. The people we OUGHT to be bringing here, like software engineers from India, chemists and bio-tech workers from China, have a very hard time getting into this country.
And no way can you get a job as a high-tech worker without all kinds of proof of residency. But, construction worker, come on in. I talked with a guy who built Santana Row out here in San Jose, and talked with him about the hiring practices. It's trivial to hire illegals. And the kids become US citizens, and have a poor bachelor degree rate, at 9%, 14% black, 21% white, and 32% Asian.
You can see the racism at work with those suppressed Asians. The good news is that a bit more than half, 56%, graduate high school. Definitely geared up for the 21st century workforce. How the new demographics of the state will work out, who knows. But Jerry Brown knows.
He has decided to make energy more expensive. Despite the low carbon footprint of natural gas, and the increased cost, we need MORE expensive solar! You know, when things look grim, make them harder! That way, the strong will survive, err, except Solyndra.
Oh well, yes, I can see the bright sunny future of CA. Unemployment rate of 12%, blah, blah, blah, more taxes, more trying the same failed recipe, etc.
But Ritmo, you know what's best, right? You are so certain you are willing to enslave the future into servitude to pay of the debt to the ownership class.
You are such a tool of the ownership class. O'Ritmo, Ignoramuso, Retarduso.
edutcher said...
Axelrod fed Ned Silver the numbers they wanted to achieve when the vote fraud started. That's how he was so "prescient".
Ed has gradually become my favorite commenter on this blog. He has only a very dim grasp on the facts as most of us understand them, but he has faith in some eternal truths, most notably the perfidy of liberals. Armed with little more this closely held belief he can hold forth on any topic at any time of the day with unquestioning confidence. All power to him, I say. Faith is a wonderful thing.
@ Big Mike
The 22 is basically a varmint gun. Damned ground squirrels. The shotguns are for either the house {mossberg persuader 500} or goose duck hunting also mossberg. 380 hand gun....well you know.
I used to have a 30.06 with scope for deer hunting in the high plains area where the distance was very long for shots, but the first husband took the gun. Not that I WANT to hunt deer any more, but if I needed to something a little bit lighter would suffice since the deer in this area are not hundreds of yards off. In fact I can see them in my yard daily eating apples and mowing down the fruit trees [pests].
The transfer of tax money in Ritmo's article is deceptive since it doesn't discuss the transfers from federal that pertain to things like National Forest, anti logging, sequestering lands for stupid spotted owl, green energy projects that do nothing for the economy and other programs that are really of little benefit to the population. Projects that frankly, we wish the Feds would just butt the hell out and leave us alone. In addition the amounts per person are skewed when massive amounts of unasked for programs are forced upon states or areas with smaller populations or less dense populated areas.
As always...Ritmo's comments amount to basically....SQUIRREL!!
Bruce Hayden said...
I think that something else has to be kept in mind here. It isn't clear if states can go through bankruptcy (cities can), but if they did, we have the experience of the Obama Administration forcing the senior lenders to take a bath so that the much lower ranking union pensions could survive. Would, or really could, that happen with a state failing? It is easy to believe that the government worker pensions would be preferenced over the bond holders, regardless of their rankings in preference. After all, unionized GM workers are a far, far, smaller force in Dem party politics than are the unionized government workers (esp., of course, the teachers' unions - even a decade or so ago, 1/4 delegates to the Dem convention were teachers on their summer break).
Not a dynamic that would making lending to these states the least bit attractive.
11/25/12 8:41 PM
Well said. Unless they have become totally financially insane not even the Democrats and the Obama Administration will try such a stunt. Once there is credible talk about such a thing occurring the bond markets will implode and no one in their right mind in principle will invest. Sure there will be some investors who will buy a limited amount of those bonds since they will be had at a very deep discount, those who can afford to risk a loss will gamble that the bonds will be paid off to the point of making a killing. But since the risk will be very high, the returns will have to be really high for those investors to take the gamble. People are still buying Greek bonds since they can be had at a very deep discount and Greece hasn't yet defaulted. For those who have the stomach and can afford to take a risk those bonds are very profitable. As long as Greece doesn't default before those bondholders collect enough on the coupons to recoup their principal investment those guys are golden. The problem for Greece is that it can't sell new issues unless they pay exorbitant rates or get a strong credit guarantor to co-sign. And if your scenario were to come true, that is exactly what would happen here except there is no one who is so strong and credit worthy to co-sign for the US and the US is in no position unless it radically cuts federal spending to take over or co-sign for states in that grave a situation. Notice that Michigan isn't rushing to bailout Detroit unless the city makes major reforms and so far, it refuses to do so. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Dante - you make a rather shitty manifesto writer, just so you know.
I was actually considering responding to a point or two in your rather unfocused rant. But then figured your insult at the end violated The Althouse Commentariat Rulebook on Humility and Respect (but NOT for non-conservatives!), and then thought better of it.
Anyway, there is no hope for me to ever compete with your nearly autistic, computerized cataloging of every shortcoming in one blue state, let alone how it must all spell out imminent doom for us all. So I won't. But the concern trolling you exhibit in doing so is touching. It bears a faint resemblance to the sense of humanity you'd so like to convince me of as the impetus for your false concerns.
Also, as I've said a million times here - it smacks of an Articles of Confederation mindset. Alexander Hamilton consolidated the debt of the divided states two hundred years ago. That's a lot of history for you to forgo in attempting to persuade us that strong entities need the socialism that the weakest aren't good enough for.
Privatized gains, socialized losses. It's the modern financial philosophy of American conservatism.
What a shame. It doesn't work and never has.
In addition the amounts per person are skewed when massive amounts of unasked for programs are forced upon states or areas with smaller populations or less dense populated areas.
Good! Give it the hell back to us, I say! Enough with Red State Political Welfare. (Including gratuitous military jobs). Let them either rise up and revolt against your Socialized losses and privatize gains or cry out to us to invade once again when your injustice against them reaches the heights it did in the 1860s and 1960s.
But as somefeller points out, it's always the blue states and blue cities that are the engines of growth anyway. You divert us with talk of their governments when for some reason, their private sectors sure seem to kick the ass of the methlands. Talk about chasing squirrels. Lord.
That's why cities in CA are going bankrupt. That's the whole point of the article. Now, I can quibble with the article in many ways. And I think the article misses some huge points. The people we OUGHT to be bringing here, like software engineers from India, chemists and bio-tech workers from China, have a very hard time getting into this country.
Dante what is overlooked isn't that we are making it so difficult for immigrants with skills that we need to come and stay here but rather those Indians and Chinese that come here to our better universities for the STEM education don't want to stay on here. They are finding better opportunities in their home countries. That should be setting alarms off but isn't.
But as somefeller points out, it's always the blue states and blue cities that are the engines of growth anyway. You divert us with talk of their governments when for some reason, their private sectors sure seem to kick the ass of the methlands. Talk about chasing squirrels. Lord.
Really? Who knew? A slight percentage of the labor population of those cities and states are the engines, the rest not so much or not at all. And the slight percentage can move when the cost of staying exceeds the cost of leaving. And many are moving out our have moved. The next ratchet up will drive even more away.
Ok cubanbob. I look forward to you founding the next Twitter, Google or Yahoo in the wilderness of Oklahoma.
Get real. That "slight percentage" (so many points at which to inject the trademark elitism) is still more adept at and interested in living with others than in avoiding it. Red state reclusion is just not an attractive selling point, and never has been. You can find some who will jump ship, but never a decisive number. People talented enough to build dynamic industries generally like to share the fruits of their talents in the company of societies and people that appreciate that dynamism. Cities are where you tend to find them, rather than around the dinner table of the family who come from a long line of plantation owners in Anywheresville, USA. As long as we're going to trade in generalizations.
pianoman,
As a native Californian, my biggest fear is that a serious attempt will be made to repeal Prop 13, which would basically make it impossible for the retired middle class to keep their homes (which is why is was passed in the first place). At that point, I'd need to pull up stakes and leave too. I'm hanging in there for now, but I definitely won't invest in munis here or any other blue state. Like DBQ says, the tax incentives aren't enough to offset the poor returns.
The problem with Prop. 13 is that it included corporate property. Property owned by individuals will eventually change hands and be re-assessed, and taxed at its new valuation; corporate property might not change hands for a very long time, and so won't be re-valued.
I agree with you absolutely about residential properties under Prop. 13. It was ridiculous for retirees to be forced to sell homes they had lived in for several decades because the valuation for property tax purposes was more than you could pay on a retiree's budget; and it was idiotic for people to protest that their property taxes were umpteen times those assessed on the house next door when the property taxes were directly tied to what you actually paid for the house, and therefore to what you thought you could afford going forward. (What you thought you could afford was not, in the end, realistic? Really not our problem. Totally unfair that the little old lady next door is paying a fraction of what you are? Well, she bought her house for the going price in 1973, and you bought yours for the going price in 2006. So sorry.)
Anyway, I doubt that Prop. 13 will ever be repealed outright; the residential property part affects too many people. But the corporate property part, and the super-majority part for tax increases, simply can't stand for much longer, because the whole danged state is going to implode.
Once these states go broke, I look forward to watching FOXNEWS move their political media empire from the Big Apple (NYC) to Enid, Oklahoma. You know, so that it can get a better handle on the "pulse" of America and project its power from what is clearly the source of our country's strength. Or something.
Could someone explain why Alabama & Mississippi are on the list?
AL and MS are poor states lacking booming commercial centers. I'm guessing that's what inflates its taker-maker ratio.
Jim Crow was (among other things) a weird sort of reverse protectionism; instead of "you have to buy certain things from us" it was "you can't buy certain things from us." That and corrupt machine politics were dampers on the economy. For whatever reason, after the death of Jim Crow markets did not take off in those states as briskly as they did in other Southern states.
@AlanKH,
For whatever reason, after the death of Jim Crow markets did not take off in those states as briskly as they did in other Southern states.
I don't think that's been true for a while, at least in Alabama. Huntsville, now the second largest city in Alabama, has been a thriving technology center since the Apollo space program days. It has one of the highest percentage of PhDs per capita of any city in the US.
Birmingham has had some troubled times as the steel industry shrank, but it has a thriving medical center. And, they're still bringing ships into port in Mobile.
Alabama's commodity crops (soybeans, cotton, and corn) have all done well, with the exception on some drought years.
My mother, who still lives in AL, has a shitload of AL muni bonds, and never, ever, have I heard her broker, who I know well, breath a word about moving out of AL munis.
Aside from that ill-fated Birmingham sewage works issue, that is, which she seems to have avoided.
Inga, it's rather ugly of you to cast such base aspersions on 44% of your fellow Wisconsinites.
So it's clear that Ritmo has yet to actually read the article, but will instead regale us with his masturbatory snark on all topics not actually related to the topic at hand.
O Ritmo wrote:
Steve no longer edits his own magazine, Mike? I guess you've ascribed to him a level of irresponsibility we usually associate with private equity guys, like your loser friend Romney.
I'm sure Forbes magazine, like many other magazines of its size has many editors. You are just ignorant , apparently, about how a magazine is run since you are attributing this to to a level of irresponsibility reserved for people you don't like (and I'm assuming are also ignorant of the jobs they do as well.)
And about how much did his buddies waste in the latest election? I mean, it's like they've invented a whole new type of bubble economy: POLITICAL OVER-VALUATION!!!!
a lot of money was spent on this election on both sides. Why is that somehow a sin of republicans? How much did YOUR buddies waste in the latest election? Not that you're actually making a valid point in any case.
My guess is you're just doing stream of consciousness at this point. Or maybe you just smoked a bowl and are now waxing all philosophic (which in your case is just snark) after breathing in the fumes. Only, to people not high, the philosophic waxing actually sounds like the rantings of an idiot.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Paul said...
Texas baby.. come invest in Texas but DON'T BRING YOUR LIBERAL YANKEE WAYS, OK?
We don't want this state screwed up like yours.
Too late for that. I have a lot of friends that live all over Texas and every one of them is seeing a massive infestation of leftards coming into the state. One of them said that he thinks its a deliberate exercise to relocate the moron vote to purplize Texas come 2016 and beyond.
O Ritmo wrote:
What's funny is how I decided to bite my tongue for every day of every week that I saw Rasmussen's prediction of a Romney landslide, while the empiricists told you along how wrong you were. So no, a supposed projection of "decency" does not guarantee good judgment on anything, let alone the supposed decency of others. It's just good, old fashioned back-slapping.
since when did you bite your tongue? And I love how Easmussen is somehow not an empiricist. Rasmussen may have been wrong in this election, but that's usually the case with almost all pollsters in all elections. Except for the few that got it right.
You do remember the Kerry election where they were sure they won the election too right? Was Rasmussen right then? Pollsters make predictions, which aren't borne out till the election is over.easmussen is generally more right than wrong, but ther is no such thing as the perfect pollster. Except for Ritmo of course.
O Ritmo wrote:
And Mike, comment cloning doesn't help your cause. I know you think so highly of your ideas that you can't bear to see them attacked by the likes of me. But if your comment is actually a good one, just let it stand on your own, man. Did you want to franchise each post, or something? They are actually not individual business, my friend. There is not an actual cash register lurking behind the pixels, much as your eyes might imagine that.
and this a perfect example of why everyone on this board thinks you're an absolute asshole. It's bad enough that you go after a double post as if it were some serious issue. But then you completely misattribute Mikes posting in the most snarkiest and uncharitable of ways.
Clearly mike dies not want to franchise each post. Clearly he doesn't think they are individual businesses. Clearly you are not actually calling him friend. Clearly, Michael doesn't see cash registers behind each pixel, much as his eyes DO NOT Iimagine that. Clearly your entire post was you talking out if your asshole and a total reflection on you and not on what you're responding to.
Please, put your lovers dick back into your mouth, abd stop talking with your mouth full.
Here is a list for Ritmos perusal of all the editors and reporters working for Forbes magazine.
http://magagenie.com/forbes-magazine/
So now that that's out of the way, its one more ritmo point that is revealed to be ignorant, but more importantly, completely irrelevant. All to cover the fact that he probably has yet to read the article. And yet still attempts to refute it with completely made up and irrelevant points. He's going to destroy that straw man he constructed from his own mind if its the last thing he does.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
O Ritmo wrote:
Oh Dear. The ammo digression caught Bunny's ear. I guess now we will have to derail talk of the financial apocalypse with talk of the coming race war, or somesuch.
You guys are endlessly fascinating. In a predictable way.
who's we? you're the one derailing this thread. I guess you will now have to derail talk of the financial collapse with whatever straw an you're going to construct. And then regale us with your pontificating that don't show you're smart, only that pure a smart ass. Or just an ass.
You by the way are endlessly predictable. But not in a fascinating way.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA .
@Michelle: I'm not sure if stripping corporate property out of Prop 13's protection is do-able (IANAL). Seems to me that it's an all-or-nothing kind of thing; either the whole thing gets repealed, or the whole thing stays.
The people in this state have done some crazy shite in the past few decades, and I guess repealing Prop 13 could happen. But it's hard to believe that we would vote against our self-interests in such a way.
Also, you said this: "But the corporate property part, and the super-majority part for tax increases, simply can't stand for much longer, because the whole danged state is going to implode."
Someone else pointed out earlier that they don't think states can go bankrupt. Again, IANAL, but I think that's probably true. Instead, they have a "haircut", and restructure their debt. The bondholders get screwed, and your political connections are what determined your level of screwed-ness. Since California has been playing accounting games for so many years, I doubt they'll change their MO any time soon ... and that means debt restructuring is almost certainly going to happen.
We might even see some changes made to Calpers. I think it was Walter Russell Mead who pointed out that it takes a Democratic Governor to make structural changes to pension benefits, since the unions would never allow a Republican Governor to do so. Governor Brown may have no choice but to change Calpers in fundamental ways. The unions will shriek and turn purple, but what are they going to do about it really? Go on strike? Vote GOP?
Too late for that. I have a lot of friends that live all over Texas and every one of them is seeing a massive infestation of leftards coming into the state. One of them said that he thinks its a deliberate exercise to relocate the moron vote to purplize Texas come 2016 and beyond.
My prayer is that we can keep them penned up in Austin, San Antonio and DFW, which seems to be working so far. Although the border is troubling, but those are not blue-state refugees. At any rate, the heat should keep most of the riffraff out.
O ritmo wrote:
De-snarkify this, Young Hegelian.
I know it's technically a different topic, but related and interesting.
<nah, won't bother reading it. Since you posted it.
I don't know what The Economists record on doom-und-gloom was before 2008, but I have a feeling it was imperfect. I take their silly magazine's article in the same light. Maybe you should, too.
And actually for all I know, the article might make a valid point and the economist might in general even be right more often than not.
But because YOU posted it, there's no reason to read it. It's absolute shit. See how that works?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
The problem with civilization is this:
It's founded by a group of people, who, after a brief period of testing, find that conservative-libertarianism is the only route to have it survive.
They have several generations of manly thriving.
Eventually, it becomes so successful and specialized that it can support a parasitic class of leftists, who do nothing but complain about the conservative-libertarian system set-up that allows society to exist.
They overwhelm the state, stealing its money and eroding it's conservative-libertarian morals and laws and ceremonies.
Society collapses into anarchy or totalitarianism, and the "rootless Cosmopolitans" and "useful idiots" are slaughtered....
Lather, rinse, repeat.
The lesson of NYC about full faith and credit was not lost on a lot of people, in the 70s.
Full faith and credit isn't worth anything.
NYC gave them brand new shiny muni bonds for their old dirty muni bonds with a lower interest and longer maturity, thanks to the courts.
We can't have a bankruptcy, can we.
Erika says: My prayer is that we can keep them penned up in Austin, San Antonio and DFW, which seems to be working so far. Although the border is troubling, but those are not blue-state refugees. At any rate, the heat should keep most of the riffraff out.
Considering (based on your comments I've seen) that you are a recent emigre from another state and you don't sound like someone who would be described as an affluent, highly-skilled addition to the Texas economy, it's a bit absurd to hear you talk about riffraff, or refer to yourself as part of the "we" that constitutes Texas. But hey, can you tell us another story about how you can purge non-Christian teachers from Texas public schools? I doubt that is true, but it's a great story that says so much about you, Erika.
Anyway, I doubt that Prop. 13 will ever be repealed outright; the residential property part affects too many people. But the corporate property part, and the super-majority part for tax increases, simply can't stand for much longer, because the whole danged state is going to implode.
But, that gets us to the basic problem, which is government spending, and not government taxing. CA already has high taxes, and removing the voter lid on that would just allow them to rise to obscene levels, which might help for a year or two, until even more of the makers leave, leaving even more takers behind. Which is, of course, a vicious circle.
Rustling leaves wrote:
Ritmo- It is not that people don't care. Golden hearted intentions don't always lead to a positive outcome. Why should "caring" about teachers or other "takers" trump caring about property tax paying citizens. Why don't the union thugs care about anyone other than themselves? And yes, they deserve to be called thugs because they just demand everything with no concern for who they harm with their greed and unintended consequences.
<Ritmo keeps using the words "care" and "fair". The problem, as you say is it doesn't really seem to be based on results but intentions, and to Ritmo, only his side actually cares.
When I would say the reason we repubs oppose Ritmo and his policy choices is BECAUSE WE CARE. I'm against the teachers union because it leads to bad outcomes for teachers and more
Importantly students. And so long as its in place it means more of the same and not the reformation that would actually maybe help kids.
Ritmo thinks that if you oppose policies it's because you don't care (ie because those policies were implemented to help people, therefore if you oppose this policies or think they should be modified you therefore don't want to help people)
Whereas, again, if I'm opposed to a policy it's bevause I don't think it's helping people)
Take opposition to Obamacare. It's not that I think people should just get cancer and die. I'm a person who will need to rely on insurance. So why would I want to screw with my own self preservation. No, I'm opposed
Because despite the intention to help it will actually HURT people - it will drive up costs, it will cost jobs, it will limit choices and overwhelm the system. If you support those things I have to ask, don't you care about poor people?
Repubs have to stop apologizing for standing up
For the free market. We do so, not because we hate poor people. Rather because
We know its the best way to get people out of poverty. We have to stop letting socialists and anti market big
Govt ghouls getting away with saying they are the party that cares.
Not if we actually look at results they don't.
Could this be a factor in the Alabama rankings?
Prichard, Alabama, Finally Defaults on Pensions - Minyanville Buzz and Banter, Dec 2010.
Looks like jr went on yet another one of his furious, barely literate, sloppy seconds binges. It's kind of like what Charlie Sheen did after getting kicked off his hit show. A tour of sorts. For losers.
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