५ ऑक्टोबर, २०१२
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१३७ टिप्पण्या:
Decent folk 50%, racists 49%
Obama +1, exactly the same margin as Rasmussen's last Ohio poll, taken September 12.
This result seems strange. I spent the first part of the week in San Francisco, which is about as deep blue as it gets, and the sense out there was that Romney made mincemeat of Obama.
Gee, I just heard on CNN yesterday afternoon about how Obama is so far ahead of Romney in Ohio, that Romney should just give up now. Since Romney won't win Ohio, he won't be able to get to the 270 threshold.
That's certainly good news for the country, that the gap in this critical state has narrowed.
But it's really disturbing that so many of my fellow Ohioans are so bereft of philosophy, so scatterbrained and out of touch, that they could be swayed from supporting one side to supporting the other, with such a gulf between the two sides, by one 90 minute debate where neither man said anything of substance.
So Althouse is now the 1%?
Slightly OT, but check out the Legal Insurrection blog:
Obama supporters lined up to greet the president in Madison, Wisc., on Thursday. While there, they were asked by Rebel Pundit if they thought it was fair that Obama didn’t have his teleprompter at the debate this week. Pure video gold.
My fave is the weepy college undergrad who whined, "Why? Why would you not let him use his teleprompter?"
This result seems strange.
It's because the unemployment dropped.
oh, wait.....?!?!
AF, all the polls I've seen have shown Obama with a 6 or 7 (or larger) point lead in Ohio.
The Ohio bike commute route sign count stands the same at two Romney and one Obama.
@Ann ...
I hope none of these are your students:
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/05/Obama-Supporters-President-Should-Have-Teleprompter-At-Debates
If they are ... I'm sorry. I don't envy the work you have cut out for you in class to fix that.
And here's another for OH - R 51, O 48, among those certain to vote.
Here on the ground, as I've said before, I'm seeing a lot more Romney than O signs.
PS Why is Barry campaigning in Cleveland for the second time in a week if he's doing so well here?
AF, all the polls I've seen have shown Obama with a 6 or 7 (or larger) point lead in Ohio.
Most do, but Rasmussen's last Ohio poll on 9-12 (scroll down) had it at Obama +1. When you compare apples to apples, this poll does not show a trend.
Maybe the new jobs today are in bailing cornstalks, owing to high feed prices.
Cornstalks aren't nearly as good as hay but they're better than straw.
I have said several times on this blog going back at least six months that as a liberal while I of course want Obama to win, Romney would also have his pluses. We saw that Wednesday night. Romney has no intentions of getting rid of the pre-existing conditions clause, hence he has no clear path to remove Obama/Romneycare.
He will be the most liberal Republican president since Ford. That might be just what the country needs right now.
He will be the most liberal Republican president since Ford. That might be just what the country needs right now.
Not for me, not until I see the FP debate.
-- hence he has no clear path to remove Obama/Romneycare.--
Sure he does.
Assuming that the tiny portion of those called who chose to respond are a representative sample, and assuming that the turnout model Rasmussen is using is accurate, and adding the uncertainty inherent in both those assumptions to the uncertainty measured by the actual statistics, there is a pretty good chance that the 50-49 guess in Ohio is an accurate measure of the race right now to within +/- 5%.
And that's great news for Romney as the challenger come election day.
Big Mike said...
"This result seems strange. I spent the first part of the week in San Francisco, which is about as deep blue as it gets, and the sense out there was that Romney made mincemeat of Obama."
Yes, but no matter.
Stupid people cling bitterly to their mistakes; they'd rather double down on failure than admit their mistakes by switching their votes.
This is the single biggest hurdle Romney faces: convincing stupid people it's in their interest to admit their president failed, and to make the change for something (so obviously) better than what they have now.
Can he do it?
Sure.
Will he be able to do so?
Hard to tell. Stupid people are notoriously stubborn.
So the 1% has the deciding vote in Ohio?
Early voting in Ohio helps Romney:
the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
...
"The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."
Jay Retread said...
I have said several times on this blog going back at least six months that as a liberal while I of course want Obama to win, Romney would also have his pluses. We saw that Wednesday night. Romney has no intentions of getting rid of the pre-existing conditions clause, hence he has no clear path to remove Obama/Romneycare.
He will be the most liberal Republican president since Ford. That might be just what the country needs right now.
However, anybody who listens to him or, more importantly, looks at his record in MA, knows his sensibilities are a lot more Conservative than Axelrod and Plouffe want people to think.
PS Seeing about 8 R signs to 2 O in NE OH.
One guy in Tallmadge made his own, nicely framed and lithographed. Quite impressive.
"According Rasmussen, in Ohio, the race is statistically tied among likely voters with Obama ahead by only a single point: 50-49%. In a tighter screen meant to gauge enthusiasm and "certainty" of voting, it's Romney who takes the lead, 52-48%.
Rasmussen's numbers are back up by pollster We Ask America, which shows Romney leading 47-46%.
The deep dive numbers are even more impressive. Ohio voters trust Romney more on the economy by a margin of 49-45%, and bests Obama on national security, 48-47%."
In Virginia, Romney improved to +1 from -1 in the Rasmussen poll. And WeAskAmerica showed big gains for Romney in Florida and Virginia since September. So there is some evidence of a bounce for Romney.
"PS Why is Barry campaigning in Cleveland for the second time in a week if he's doing so well here?"
Obamaphone lady sat on and broke her phone and Other Barry is replacing it, heroically.
It all comes down to voter enthusiasm and turnout. The ABO folks would crawl over broken glass. The BO folks, many of them, I think wouldn't walk through a light drizzle. BO best card is the race card, which is why I agreed with Althouse we shouldn't help him play it. I'm looking for some kind of ginned up outrage at that last second. I don't think it will help but I expect something from these believers int he Chicago way.
The local phone directory company here is asking for permission to furnish home telephone books only on request.
Business white and yellow pages paid for by the advertisers would continue to be saturation distribution.
Although I think polls can sort of give a generalized picture of how the electorate feels, I don't put much stock in them when they show one candidate or the other up by one or two points.
I do find the Examiner's story that shows a strong uptick in Republican early voting interesting. That shows what voters have done, rather than showing what on out of every 9 or so voters willing to discuss the matter says they will do.
That information ought to worry Obama voters.
stan's info comes off the sidebar at Althouse.
And I agree with Gerad. Turnout is key, which explains why Zero's in Cleveland. He's worried about the base.
Voting started in Ohio the day before the first debate, and Democrats had been camped out in Cleveland to do so. Romney better make sure the turnout of his voters is very high.
Gerad Hibbs said...
BO best card is the race card, which is why I agreed with Althouse we shouldn't help him play it. I'm looking for some kind of ginned up outrage at that last second.
Last minute, ginned up outrage can backfire if heavyhanded. It will have to be really believeable. The phonelady isn't fooling anyone.
How about the October surprise, right on schedule, that the unemployment rate has fallen below 8%. For that to have happened the economy would have to be growing at 4 - 5%. In other words it's the government blatantly lying to its slaves...er, citizens.
Hopefully the air quality in Cleveland won't bother Obama while he's campaigning.
So Althouse is now the 1%?
Undecided.. I see what you did there.
"PS Why is Barry campaigning in Cleveland for the second time in a week if he's doing so well here?"
Probably trying the maximize his turnout in one of his Ohio strongholds.
ricpic said...
How about the October surprise, right on schedule, that the unemployment rate has fallen below 8%. For that to have happened the economy would have to be growing at 4 - 5%. In other words it's the government blatantly lying to its slaves...er, citizens.
Off Breitbart:
Unemployment dropped to 7.8 percent in September and 114,000 jobs were created, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today.
Much of the drop in the jobless rate was accounted for by revisions to past job numbers, not by new jobs created in September.
As both CNN and MSNBC reported immediately after this morning's release, these numbers fail to keep up with population growth--so the U.S. economy continues to tread water.
Job numbers were revised upward by 86,000 for July and August, providing the main impetus for lowering the overall unemployment rate.
Also helps 60% of new jobs are part time.
Inartfully (ugly) stated...
Romney voters dont answer polls.
Romney is going to win by a landslide.
LoafingOaf said...
PS Why is Barry campaigning in Cleveland for the second time in a week if he's doing so well here?
Probably trying the maximize his turnout in one of his Ohio strongholds.
As I say, because he's worried about his base.
And the first Lesbian President ought to be, considering a lot of black clergy are telling their parishioners to stay home.
Drudge says. . .
POST-DEBATE BOUNCE IN POLLS:
ROMNEY PULLS AHEAD IN VIRGINIA...
Takes 3-point lead in Florida...
Ohio: Leads 51-48 among those 'certain' to vote...
How about the October surprise, right on schedule, that the unemployment rate has fallen below 8%. For that to have happened the economy would have to be growing at 4 - 5%. In other words it's the government blatantly lying to its slaves...er, citizens.
Need a Jobs Certificate, don't we bro?
PS In '80, when Carter pulled this, Reagan accused him of "Jimmying" the figures.
Romney is going to win by a landslide.
Unless there is a huge Bradley Effect in the making, I dont predict a landslide, a close win and even then, its a toss up.
If the liberal commenters here are indicative of the typical Obama voter, its safe to assume he could sacrifice kittens on national tv and he would still get their vote because Romney, who shut down his business to help a friend look for his missing daughter and who rescued a family from a sinking boat is scary and evil because he's rich.
Oh and a Mormon too!
Oh yes! Yesyesyesyes! I LOVE working myself into a lather of outrage and consternation every time a new poll comes out! There is so much drama in them thar polls--so much intrigue! Keep 'em coming!
Puke.
edutcher: "As I say, because he's worried about his base."
That would explain why Obama people keep knocking on my door, which is highly annoying.
Obama lost my vote in Ohio. But, as of right now, I don't think I'm going to vote for anyone at all in the presidential race. I'm gonna vote, though, so perhaps I'll write someone in for the heck of it.
I don't know what to make of the polls for the simple fact that the polling phone calls are so obnoxious I don't think many normal people would do anything but hang up. One time, when I was drunk, I gave them false data.
I'm confused, factory orders are down 5+%, GDP has continually been revised down for the last 3 quarters, U6 unemployment continues to to be 14+%, but unemployment is decreasing. Of course there was a surge in seasonal part time work and government employment, but then less we forget the job creation numbers have always been revised downward exponentially from those initially reported by the gov. and media. But today's numbers are good news, but if everyone in the country gets laid off and doesn't look for a job we could achieve statistical full employment, sky's the limit.
Need a Jobs Certificate, don't we bro?
Not sure what you're insinuating but my situation is comfortable, not a quonset hut in the Wisconsin tundra.
Fox just reported that a Dem insider, who monitors online voter registration, told Trippy that since the debate Republican registration surged 2 to 1 and continues.
garage mahal said...
Need a Jobs Certificate, don't we bro?
Isn't it funny how uncritically you accept data that makes no sense what so ever?
Want to guess what that says about you?
If you want to know whether Ohio is competitive this year... just count the number of times each candidate heaped praise on the Cleveland Clinic during the first debate.
So the blathering idiot actually believes that in an era of 1.6% GDP growth, the U/E rate dropped by the largest margin in 30 years.
Re: clear path to repeal Obamacare...
We don't talk about it much, but the main obstacle to repealing Obamacare is the Senate. We need 60 votes in the Senate. We've got 47 Republican votes right now.
I predict a dramatic filibuster with huge media coverage of the brave Democratic senators yadda, yadda...
Polls hahahaha
Clint,
the R's are on record saying they will repeal Obamacare in the Senate via reconcillation.
Chip
You're probably right. Not to worry the polls will be revised the day after the election, as will the employment numbers.
Here in Cleveland it is hard to find people who say they are happy about the last 4-years. Aside from that the Obama base is not nearly as animated as the anyone-but-Obama base. Polls that showed Obama in the lead always had very heavy weighting toward Obama. It would be truely surprising to see more Ds than Rs at the polls AND Romney is winning the independents.
Superchoom better start campaigning in California. I can't imagine anyone but Ed Begley being happy with $5/gal. gasoline. If he looses Californian, he's toast.
(slaps forehead It's California, what the hell was I thinking?!?
"Romney has no intentions of getting rid of the pre-existing conditions clause, hence he has no clear path to remove Obama/Romneycare."
If I were you, I would be less eager to show my ignorance. The "pre-existing conditions" clause is an insurance killer. That was why the mandate was an issue but, after Obama opposed it pre-election in 2008, he encouraged Pelosi and Reid, whose staffs wrote the bill, to make it so weak as to be ineffective. If the mandate had teeth, there would be even more opposition to Obamacare.
The only way to deal with the issue of pre-existing conditions is to create risk pools at the state level and subsidize them to keep premiums affordable. Otherwise, no one would buy insurance until they got sick. By "no one" I mean the irresponsible who comprise Obama's base.
There will have to be a rule about joining a risk pool if you want to be covered. The most irresponsible will still show up in the ER sick but those we will always have with us. I have spent many hours, probably thousands, operating on people with no expectation I would ever get paid. As doctors' incomes decline, it will get very hard to be treated with no coverage at all.
I googled "jobs report" and noticed the press is reporting it exactly as it was intended. First headline: "Jobs report gives Obama much needed boost."
Really, media? Is that all we needed to know about the September jobs report? Not anything about U-6 or labor force participation? All we need to know is that some irrelevant number looks good and might boost Obama's re-election chance?
Thanks, media. Where would we be without you? <3<3<3
I don't know what to make of the polls for the simple fact that the polling phone calls are so obnoxious I don't think many normal people would do anything but hang up. One time, when I was drunk, I gave them false data.
If you want to screw with pollsters, or telemarkers, waste their time. First express interest, then tell them you have another call, click to the other line, and go back to reading blogs.
Expressing interest is the key, otherwise they just hang up. I actually had one guy call me back twice. Eventually they put you on the do not call list. Call centers maintain an internal DNC list for people who inconvenience them, and shockingly they're much better at not calling those folks.
Most states had "high risk" or "existing condition" insurance pools prior to obamacare.
Latest RCP Electoral College poll shows Obama 250 to 191.
Illinois might even be in play. Maybe Romney should spend a few bucks on TV. It isn't worth a visit although It's closer than California where Bush wasted some time in 2000.
The polls that count will be next week after the debate results register. Then Ryan will wipe the floor with slow Joe.
Coketown - if the President were a (R) you would be triumphing this jobs report,and you know it.
But, as of right now, I don't think I'm going to vote for anyone at all in the presidential race. I'm gonna vote, though, so perhaps I'll write someone in for the heck of it.
Please don't not vote. Regardless of what some folks want you to beleive, it still does count for something.
And rather than just writing someone in, you should find a 3rd or 4th political party that is close to your own core beleifs. Given the way the TwoPartySystem stacks the deck against the lil' guys(ballot access laws, public funding for political conventions, invites to debates, etc etc) your vote there will actually be helping out quite a bit.
Voting for Gary Johnson just to spite ya'll.
" Blogger McTriumph said...
Most states had "high risk" or "existing condition" insurance pools prior to obamacare."
Sure. It's the only way you can handle the uninsurable. The mandate would be hard to enforce, even with 12,000 more IRS agents. Germany requires insurance unless your income is very high. France does much the same. Our big problem with healthcare is the illegals.
The huge mistake Johnson made in 1965 was to exclude the big city charity hospitals which could have taken all comers wit the option for the insured to go elsewhere. For ideological reasons, they chose to pretend Medicaid was mainstream care.
So what do we call Job Truthers now?
Jobbers?
He will be the most liberal Republican president since Ford.
Except that W was a far more liberal president than Ford.
Unskewed nationwide Rasmussen poll:
R: 48.65 O: 44.92
Undecideds tend to break for challenger. Assuming a 3-1 break for Romney, then right now the race looks like:
R: 53.45 O: 46.5
Since its a rolling average I expect to see an uptick over the next few days. Still a month to go but the strategy is to dishearten the right. That tactic seems to be working. Hey, if you can't get people to vote for you then the next best strategy is confuse/fool the people to stay home and not vote for your opponent. It shows the state of the race that this is the tack they have decided they have to take.
Jay said... "Clint,
the R's are on record saying they will repeal Obamacare in the Senate via reconcillation. "
We still need 3 Senate seats... and that's assuming that every single Republican senator goes along with repeal by reconciliation. I'd hate to have to count on the RINOest member of the Senate, whoever you think that is.
It's not "post-debate" poll, but a tracking poll. I heared Rasmussen yesterday saying that post-debate results will be after weekend.
... but the trend is clear.
purplepenquin said...
" Please don't not vote. Regardless of what some folks want you to beleive, it still does count for something.
And rather than just writing someone in, you should find a 3rd or 4th political party that is close to your own core beleifs. Given the way the TwoPartySystem stacks the deck against the lil' guys(ballot access laws, public funding for political conventions, invites to debates, etc etc) your vote there will actually be helping out quite a bit."
I'd second that -- write-ins are stupid. No one will ever even read what you wrote, unless your state is so close that the write-ins could flip the final result.
Voting for a minor party at least gets tabulated (since it's done by machine) -- and it does count towards ballot access next time, and even matching funds if a third party candidate manages 5% nationally. (Which he could do without acting as a spoiler, if he picks up the votes primarily in non-swing-states.)
LOL! "Jobbers"!! LOLOLOL! That was quite clever--quite! Because, it's like, Truthers believe Obama was foreign born, when he wasn't! And, like, Jobbers believe the September jobs report was dismal, when it was!
And Alex, you're wrong: I call awful employment figures awful regardless of who's president. Fortunately, unemployment has never been over 7.8% with a Republican president in my lifetime. Funny how that works. Enjoy your spiteful vote!
The Back Nixon's administration that circumvents the law by trying to sneak a work for welfare memo out of HHS, that continues to lie about what led up to the killings in Libya, that lies and stonewalls about fast and furious, that has produced a Justice Dept. that is more politicised than Nixon's, that offers to cover legal cost of defence contractors for breaking the pink slip law, etc., etc. etc. etc. is to be believed when there is a huge down tick in unemployment numbers. A 114000 jobs increase for the month doesn't cover the increase in population growth entering the jobs market.
garage mahal said...
So what do we call Job Truthers now?
The Employment-Population ratio January 2009: 60.5%.
Employment-Population ratio September 2012: 58.7%
Don't worry, this is all way, way too confusing for you.
Clint,
yes, I don't think any RINO would support repeal. The R's need 6 seats!
Sorry should read, "Black Nixon's"
It isn't important the reason the jobs report looks suspicious, or frankly whether it is accurate or not. Understand, I'm speaking purely from a political impact perspective here.
The fact that 70+ million people saw with their own lying eyes that Obama and the media have been bullshitting them about Romney not two days ago means that the strong seeds of doubt have been planted about anything pro-Obama that is put out by the media.
The conservative blogosphere and Romney partisans did a very good job of watering those seeds of doubt almost immediately this morning. Having a guy like Jack Welch call the numbers bullshit is very useful.
My point is that Obama and the media cooked their own goose by being so obviously crooked about Romney's character and proposals for the last 9 months. They are the little boy crying wolf.
Now, when something implausible but helpful to Obama comes out, Average Joe Swing Voter thinks that's bullshit, too.
Heckuva job, libs. Way to fuck your own candidate through your own lack of discipline over the last 9 months.
trumpetdaddy... you're whacked if you think the average swing voter thinks this jobs report is faked.
I can tell you this. There were a lot of high fives and fist pumps at Obama HQ today!
"Voting for Gary Johnson just to spite ya'll."
Someone finally realized how to get attention around here.
Don't worry, this is all way, way too confusing for you.
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
Add me to the list of people who thinks these numbers will be revised in the near future in a way that is not favorable to Obama.
Yeah, I'm sure there were. Just like Obama was just luring Romney into his 11th degree chess strategy by tanking the first debate, right?
When you have been shown to be a liar, and this is the media I'm talking about now, people tend to doubt your assertions in the future.
Obama and the media (BIRM) were shown out on Wednesday night to be blatant liars. And now the story comes out that job growth was the strongest in one month since 1983 at exactly the same time Obama needs some good news.
It may well have been.
But nobody outside Dem partisans believes the media now. Especially when such a number is so implausible and so convenient.
But let them high-five if that is what they were doing. They thought spending 200 million dollars over 9 months to tell stupid and easily refuted lies about Romney was a smart strategy.
That money was completely wasted as of 10:45 pm Eastern time on Wednesday.
Alex
Even the young Black Nixon sycophants on Morning Joe couldn't explain the numbers, even the "journalist" Mika had doubts.
It could go either way. If you look at the historic polls from 2004, Kerry was leading in Ohio during most of October - especially after the first debate that Kerry won (but it wasn't a blowout like the debate on Wednesday. (And the economy was much better than it is today). Bush took an average 2 pt lead in the polls in late October, and held it to the election.
Bush ended up winning 51-49.
Unlike 2004, where the turnout percentages were steady, this year's election turnout is a huge unknown. Obama won in Ohio in a big wave election D+8. But then there was a republican wave election in 2010 with a R+1 turnout that wiped out all state office democrats. Romney is currently leading independents in all polls, so this partisan turnout means everything. If Ohio goes R+1 this year (like 2010), Romney will surely win. If you have D+8 like 2008 than Obama will surely win.
So what will the turnout be in 2004. A lot of pollsters are splitting the difference - say D +4. But no one really knows. Clearly the turnout will be much less than 2008, as recent stories about early voting show.....
We don't talk about it much, but the main obstacle to repealing Obamacare is the Senate. We need 60 votes in the Senate. We've got 47 Republican votes right now.
Dude, no we don't:
R-E-C-O-N-C-I-L-I-A-T-I-O-N.
And not a peep any-damned-body can say about it in objection.
After this race polls will never again be so important. How campaigns are done changes in the US periodically and this is a time of change. Polls will never again be as accepted as they are now. Everyone understands that people begin to game the system whatever the system may be but up till now no one thought there was a way to game the polls. Well, there is. After this election, believing polls will seem as quaint as believing a TV product endorsement. Meanwhile we are stuck with the system sawing on our nerves till Election Day.
PS Only a little while back I would have said the debates were pointless because they were so stylized. Now I try to imagine the next one - I used to debate and I don't think Obama can improve very much in the time. He wasn't debating; he was repeating his campaign speeches and calling that being "visionary". And when Romney would say: "where did you get that so called fact"? Obama couldn't answer. I don't think he will be able to defend his foreign policy. Won the Nobel prize and bombed Lybia and picks drone targets - there's lot of stuff like that. If he does defend bombing and war and the effect of sanctions on civilians by saying he wanted to keep America safe, the left will hate him. If he doesn't defend it, what will he say?
Illinois is not in play, no matter what the polls say in one Congressional District currently held by a Republican. Would that it were so, but it's not.
garage mahal said...
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
Really, so you can explain the largest 1 time drop in the U/E rate in 29 years in an era of 1.6% GDP growth and with 1.1 million fewer people working than 12 months ago?
Please do, idiot.
Please.
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
You are truly funny. I say it in all sincerity.
Obama fucked up the debate because Mitt cheated by writing answers on his handkerchief.
Obama fucked up the debate because he was too overtired and distracted by the Affairs of State.
Obama fucked up the debate because he got some top-secret bad news right before he walked on stage.
Obama fucked up the debate because of the mile-high atmosphere in Denver.
Obama fucked up the debate because he's too good to argue with a Republican.
Obama fucked up the debate because they wouldn't let him use his teleprompter.
Obama fucked up the debate because he doesn't really want to be President but he's such a good guy that he's going to do it anyway.
Oh, and
"You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing."
Whatever you say. About yourself.
garage mahal said...
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
Note you have no response to the data.
You'll just happily swallow what Barry's government - the same one that pressured Lockheed into not sending WARN notices - tells you.
Because that is what good lemmings do.
And you're a good lemming.
Obama fucked up the debate because
of mistakes made by everyone but Barack Obama.
Oh, I forgot:
Obama fucked up the debate because of raaaaaacism.
Let it be noted here that I predicted several years ago that, no matter what the actual facts are, unemployment would ... like magic ... be below 8% before election day.
I'm feeling very smart right now.
Almost as smart as ___________ [fill in very smart AA commenter here}.
A nugget from DK:
What a contrast (35+ / 0-)
in responses to the jobs report: the President is pleased because folks are getting back to work -- and he also knows this is not a moment for jubilation -- just another stepping stone toward a sound economy.
Romney and the rest of the assholes who thrive on destroying this country are upset -- apoplectic -- accusing others of lying which is the biggest joke of all. Not once did Romney express pleasure about more Americans being employed -- even for temp work, which many of us would prefer to unemployment.
" My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974
by gchaucer2 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:51:35 AM PDT
Well, they're traitors. It's just not considered (18+ / 0-)
polite to be that explicit about it.
Romney comes off as very bitter and desperate today.
It reinforces the notion that the GOP prefers misery so that they can get elected.
GM is right. We need to trust government reports--no matter how absurd or implausible. To glance at them with suspicion is the work of cranks and conspiracy theorists. I'm sure he gave George Bush and the Republicans of 2000-6 this same courtesy.
Trust your Federal Family. After all, we helped make this jobs report--because government is the name we give to the things we do together!
Oh, and GM: it's "y'all." Not "ya'll." I know you and Obama love affecting folksy airs, but you just sound retarded when you can't even spell a southern colloquialism right. Shiiiiiit.
It reinforces the notion that smart people don't believe what Zero's gov't says.
See: Libya.
I'm feeling very smart right now.
Almost as smart as ___________ [fill in very smart AA commenter here}.
Almost as smart as coketown.
You're welcome.
It's a big accusation to level that this job report is faked. Where is your evidence?
garage mahal said...
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
Yes, because it was the right who accused Bush of having a hearing device in his ear during the debate.
And it was the right who is now accusing Romney of having notes in his hand in the debate on Wed.
And it was the right who said 9-11 was an inside job and made a "documentary" saying that the war in Afghanistan is because of some oil pipeline.
Remember, fire doesn't melt steel!
Idiot.
Trust your Federal Family. After all, we helped make this jobs report--because government is the name we give to the things we do together!
We belong to it. All of us.
garage mahal said...
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
How's the Walker indictment going for you, bozo?
Do you bring that router into evidence or what, shit for brains?
Preference cascade.
An avalanche never looks that big or fast when starting.
A rocket looks impossibly slow at ignition...
Walker to testify in criminal trial
It sounds so good to a lot of people to have someone "fighting" insurance companies to cover preexisting conditions.
I wonder how many people recall what "insurance" is?
If you go in business, and yes, it's a business designed to make its investors money...so here we go: you say that you'll accept a premium, sort of exactly like your auto insurance premium, right? And that you'll pay for a certain list of claims should they occur, for that premium. You are taking a risk here. Understood? Are the people whining about preexisting conditions still with me?
Good. So wouldn't it make sense, if you were still hoping to make an evil profit here, that if you agreed to cover someone who has huge, regular health care expenses - that his premium would be enough not only to cover that, but anything else that might creep in?
Well, you would think so! I'll admit, I don't understand this game of conflating "insurance" with "care" and calling it evil to adhere to the basic principles of business.
So here we are. Many, many people expecting expenses to be "covered" for no additional premium at all.
Nice gig.
(I know that was slightly off topic, but I did read the preexisting condition mention here.)
On the topic of the polls: Lem is right. :)
7.8%
BuLlShit.
teehee.
I'd wager that only about 25% of the population knows what insurance actually is.
Anthony Weiner became a darling of the left by going on cable news to proclaim that health insurance is a sham and shockingly advocated for making it more available.
Here in Oceania, we have never questioned authority.
-Garagemahal, dateline Ministry of Truth.
"(slaps forehead It's California, what the hell was I thinking?!?"
Don't worry about it.
I love your hope.
But I'm telling you, California is America's future should the idiots elsewhere refuse to flip from Obama to Romney.
High Speed Rail, off a fiscal cliff, chasing jobs away left and right.
Your choice, America.
@Brennan
I figure most everybody here gets it, but I still wanted to get that out of my system. The debate Americans never heard leading up to Obamacare. I'm a little bitter. :)
Alex: "Faked" would be your term. I don't think the Economist, CNBC, Barclays and JP Morgan are a bunch of cranks though when they say the same thing as trumpet.
Maybe you might disagree.
Alex said...
It's a big accusation to level that this job report is faked. Where is your evidence?
Prove it's accurate. You say it is, go out and count.
Unemplyment rate - the openly massaged #'s anywhere.
"I'd wager that only about 25% of the population knows what insurance actually is."
The PRESIDENT doesn't know what insurance actually is. Remember the health care summit story he told where he was confused about the difference between liability auto insurance and collision auto insurance? He purchased the legal minimum ins which didn't pay for property damage to owned vehicles then was all offended that his insurance wouldn't pay for his property damage in an accident. And then it apparently didn't occur to Mr. Harvard Law to go to the ins for the person who caused the accident.
This is who leads us
Amartel
He either lied in telling about his mother's problems with health insurance while hospitalised or did not know the difference between health and disability insurance, liar or idiot?
So, according to numerous reports I've read in the media, the economy needs to generate about 150,000 jobs a month just to stay even with the number of new people entering the job market.
However today, the unemployment rate drops 3 tenths of a percent based on a September report of 114,000 new jobs (plus minor upgrades to the July and August numbers). And the media goes to great pains to explain that the drop IS NOT due to those who have given up looking for a job. Even though recent GDP reports showing almost no growth and a big loss in manufacturing jobs.
Oh, here we go. From Marketwatch:
State and local governments accounted for virtually all of the added job gains, mainly through the hiring of more teachers.
I don't know. It sounds like the county would have to hire a whole lot of teachers to lower the rate that much.
The math just doesn't add up.
On reflection, I should not have limited it [the BS they disburse as facts and figures] to Zero's admin. Prior admin's only marginally better, if at all.
A great, and revealing, look at gov't bs numbers can be found at Vox Day's book about the great depression. Everything is illuminated.
Anyone who wants to read a truly odd critique of Zero's debate performance, try this one on for size.
Barry's appearance didn't strike me as that bad, but I can't say I was looking that hard.
PS If Hatman's lurking, can't wait to see what he thinks of gay Conservatives.
You all know the employment numbers are all generated by telephone polls of households by the Labor Dept.
Gallup's own employment poll says unemployment remains at 8.1 %.
More polls, WTF!
I live in Butler County Ohio, there is 100's and 100's of Yard Romney and Mandel signs. They are popping up everywhere, two more showed up on my street since Wed night, there was none on this street in 2008, including mine except for 2 Obama ones. The Obama ones are not back. Obama signs are pretty much not to be found. By our count, we are aware of 14 Obama signs, with 5 of them at the same place, the local Union hall. Oddly enough, there is no bumper stickers for any nominee to speak of. I have one and seen a Romney/Ryan one yesterday at Kroger. Would not surprise me that this county alone goes for Romney at over 100,000 votes alone.
It reinforces the notion that the GOP prefers misery so that they can get elected. (1:29)
It has nothing to do with GOP preferences. Democrats can't govern. Under their reign, misery is inevitable.
liar or idiot?
Err on the side of being right and say both.
How's the Walker indictment going
Ann doesn't talk about it much anymore, does she?
For those who do want to keep updated, this blog has been a good source of information.
Do you bring that router into evidence or what
Yes. The motion to squash that evidence was denied, and the email messages sent on the private/secret router will used in Kelly Rindfleisch's trial. If Walker is indicted (he may be cutting a deal and rolling over on someone higher up) then that evidence will most likely be used against him as well.
bozo...shit for brains
Do you get in a lot of physical fights while out in public, or do you only behave like this while online?
He either lied in telling about his mother's problems with health insurance while hospitalised or did not know the difference between health and disability insurance, liar or idiot?
I used to think he was a liar. But a bad liar is often confused for an idiot given too much credit by his Amen caucus.
"If Walker is indicted (he may be cutting a deal and rolling over on someone higher up) then that evidence will most likely be used against him as well."
-- Higher up than... the governor?
Over at HedgeZero.com they are perplexed by the good employment numbers. They can't explain why the Labor Department's numbers would include a huge increase in employment among college age workers, a surge not seen since 1949. Read it, if you dare.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/strangest-number-todays-jobs-number
garage mahal said...
Don't worry, this is all way, way too confusing for you.
No it's pretty clear. You're a party of cranks and conspiracy theories, and ya'll are fucking embarrassing.
Not really, but it has become more than obvious lately that reason confuses you.
The BLS data says that about 1 million jobs were added in the last 30 days.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/LNU02032201.txt
If this is accurate the IRS data should reflect an increase in tax withholding tables.
WSJ reports that 25 of the most prominent economist predicted no change for unemployment. Highest prediction was 8.2%, lowest 8.1%, average 8.1%, but what do they know, they don't use polls for their predictions.
Higher up than... the governor?
Higher up than the king would be the kingmaker. There is a possibility that Reince Priebus will be the John Doe.
But, most probable, it is Walker. This email alone is enough for an indictment against him.
Pauldar at 2:21, I see you live in the 8th Congressional District, which has been represented by the GOP for 125 of the last 150 years (more or less), uninterruptedly since 1939; wonder how many CDs can claim that distinction?
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