"Have you heard this idea that if 3.5% of a population protests nonviolently, social change is a slam dunk?..."

It's a "No King's Day reality check" from AntifascistDad:

"It is now a think tank-approved, purportedly evidence-based method, that guarantees movement success.... But do they really have the empirical data?

Ezra Klein and virtually everything.

I'm just trying to get through this New Yorker interview with Ezra Klein, "Ezra Klein Argues for Big-Tent Politics":

I agree with Ta-Nehisi [Coates] on virtually every view he has on things that Charlie Kirk had said. ... I have poured virtually every ounce of myself into preventing everything that Kirk poured himself into creating. For more people than I had understood, the sense that we are in any way in community together—the sense that we are still in a place where we are all practicing and doing politics—has already eroded. Something that’s very alive for me is a feeling that we are not that far from national rupture. So many things that we like to say “can’t happen here” have already been happening here.

[And who do you blame for that?]

I mean, I blame Donald Trump quite specifically for that. I think that the way he has acted in the aftermath of Kirk’s murder has been an exhibition of virtually everything that is wrong....

Klein had said something gracious about Kirk. Coates attacked him. And Klein adopted this strange way of talking about himself. It's so effusive yet vague. Instead of saying "I think we are close to a national rupture," he says "Something that’s very alive for me is a feeling that we are not that far from national rupture." He sounds like a comic character in a play.

Maybe you've seen the recent podcast with Klein and Coates going head to head. I don't know if you can bear to listen to that, but I highly recommend this commentary on it from AntifascistDad, who focuses of Klein's Buddhist turn: