"The candidate who will win the election is the candidate seen as the most able to bring about change, say strategists on both sides."

"A New York Times/Siena College poll found 61 percent of likely voters said they want major change from Biden. Democrats argue Harris inhabits an ethos of change simply by being a younger, fresher candidate, and her potential to become the first woman president. They hope Trump will look stale on the stage next to her."

Writes Amber Phillips, in "What Harris, Trump need to do to win Tuesday’s presidential debate" (WaPo).

Look for other efforts to diminish Trump by referring to his age. I'm also seeing this, from Peter Baker at the NYT: "As Debate Looms, Trump Is Now the One Facing Questions About Age and Capacity/With President Biden no longer in the race, former President Donald J. Trump would be the oldest person ever to serve in the Oval Office. But his rambling, sometimes incoherent public statements have stirred concern among voters."

My question about Harris as the change candidate: She just seized all the delegates Biden won in the primaries to get the nomination, which symbolized that she was the proper substitute for him. Doesn't that require her to run on his record and vow to stay the course and tell us not to change horses in midstream? I think the answer is "yes," and that explains the new focus on age. She is Biden II, the younger Biden.

But people want change, supposedly. It's a "change election." The idea seems to be to convince the people that the change from Biden is just someone younger (and, if you must, also a different color and gender).

5 theories on why Pete Buttigieg got so popular.

It's a crowded field of Democratic Party candidates, with notables like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris idling at around 7% and Cory Booker embarrassingly stalled at 3%. So how did Pete Buttigieg break through the pack into 3rd place already? (Only Biden and Sanders outpoll the fast-rising newcomer.)

Amber Phillips (at WaPo) has 5 theories, which I'll summarize, interwoven with my commentary.

1. He's a "novelty," Phillips says, because he "is from the Midwest, he’s a veteran who served in Afghanistan, and he unapologetically talks about his Christian faith in a way that helps voters feel like the Republican Party is not the only one with a claim to talk about faith." Phillips leaves out the 2 most obvious points of novelty: He's openly gay, and he's really really young.

2. "There are aspects of his profile that excite more liberal members of the party." Oh, here's where those other 2 points of novelty are compartmentalized: "he’s 37 and openly gay." I guess the "novelty" under #1 were the things that made him seem like a Republican — midwestern, veteran, Christian. I get it. That's why these are 2 different "theories."

3. "The Democratic Party has been without a clear leader since President Trump won. So why not look to someone outside Washington?" That is: All the other Democratic candidates are Senators. You can really stand out just by not being a Senator. Senators don't come across as leaders.

4. "Buttigieg is a candidate some Democrats could see taking on Trump successfully." But why do they see him that way? He seems to be good at talking. "'He seems pretty unflappable,' Pamela from California said in an email... 'He seems to be the type who can let it slide off and not engage.'" Okay, then, Pamela from California has the impression he's unflappable. But we've never seen Buttigieg perform under anything like the pressure Trump would put on him. We've seen him buoyed up by interviewers who want to believe he can fly.  Also under #4 is the fact that "Buttigieg is a white man." Maybe people think a woman can't stand up to Trump — "after Hillary Clinton lost to him."

5. "Voters say he’s got the intangibles... a calm personality, an ease on the biggest stage possible and a direct, eloquent way of speaking that has earned him comparisons to a young Barack Obama."

Let me restate Phillips's 5 theories:

1. Buttigieg seems like a Republican. That feels kind of safe and it just might work.

2. He's openly gay and he's really really young. That's exciting.

3. He's not a Senator. Ugh! All those Senators!

4. You can picture him using his fancy words to flummox Trump.

5. Obama! Dreams of Obama! O! BAAAA! MAAAAAA!