That's how the NYT puts it in "The Most Important Race Shaping 2028 for Democrats Is Happening Now in Michigan/The fate of Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive candidate in the race, will serve as a litmus test for the left’s potency heading into the next presidential contest."
I suspect the Times wants El-Sayed to lose.
There's this quote from Matt Bennett, an executive vice president of the centrist Third Way think tank: "The danger is that the triumphal stuff coming from the left will take hold as a narrative that 2028ers believe. I think he will win despite — not because of — the fact that he has campaigned mostly to the left."
From the comments over there: "Why on Earth does this article bill this contest as a test of the left's potency when the real story is that the candidate is under assault from the right on the basis of islamophobia and xenophobia and from the candidate's primary opponent on the basis of sour grapes and the ongoing Democratic establishment's delusion that only centrism can win? This race is a bellwether for those things, not for the viability of progressivism."
Mga Post
55 komento:
The politics and religion of Envy.
El Sayed's grand master is Hasan Piker. (D)
Hasan Piker hates blacks, hates the USA, lives in a 3 million dollar mansion, and electrocutes his own dog.
El Sayed and his family support the Muslim Brotherhood.
Obama supports El Sayed.
This Rhodes Scholar is a smooth talker just like Obama and Clinton, but there is really no doubt that he is a Socialist (Medicare for all) and a Jew hater.
If this guy wins, we are in BIG trouble.
The conversational wisdom is that Blacks won’t vote for him, but one always have to worry about vote cheating.
I've read that if Democrats lose Michigan, they won't be particularly heartbroken. They view Abdul El-Sayed as a firebrand who would be a disruptive presence in the Senate.
That said, it will be interesting to see just how big the so-called Blue Wave turns out to be and whether it’s strong enough to carry El-Sayed across the finish line.
On Kalshi, Mike Rogers has only a 24% chance of winning. $14m bet on the race.
"Unalloyed Progressivism?" el-Sayed is definitely alloyed. Or perhaps Progressivism is itself an alloy at this point: of OG leftism with every possible grievance group, including the ones that hate each other. But the alloy can't stay together. Even on simple parochial Michigan things like Arabs vs Blacks.
It's less of an alloy and more like a half-assed soldering job. CC, JSM
Even "Michigan Arabs" are not monolithic. There are Chaldean Christians, who refuse to call themselves Arabs. And every flavor of Lebanese: even though they don't blow each other up like in the old country, they still don't necessarily mix. And a lot of Yemenis, whom the more northern Arabs look down on. el-Sayed refused to denounce terrorist groups not so much because he was afraid of pissing off lefties, but because for every terrorist group, some of the Michigan Arabs love it and some hate it. Heck some of them even may have fought for/against it in the old country. He can't afford to fragment the delicately balanced community. CC, JSM
I would like to see some investigative journalism that pries open the betting markets like Kalshi. I would like to know the demographics of participants.
I wonder how effective it would be for a leftist billionaire to selectively, in small increments, invest in the betting markets by putting money down under various identities, to stack the odds. Money lost, yes, but maybe money well invested at swinging perceptions of what the odds are, of a candidate winning or losing?
The whole basis of betting markets is that people are wagering to see a win or loss in good faith. What if the bets were not made in good faith?
I am not Islamophobic. I just don't like being beheaded.
Sharia uber alles.
This entire "left-wing populism surge" is complete bullshit. Why do you think the Democrats opened up our borders, let 20,000,000 unvetted aliens in mainly, from left-wing dominated countries, and have been working feverishly to fund and protect them? Not to mention using every trick in the book to allow them to vote illegally.
These are the Replacement Voters writ large. And it's only a question of how many of them in which places have managed to stuff the ballot boxes. The enemedia, of course, continue to not point any of this out, and simply parrot the narrative of the Blue Wave as if it's a real shift in the values and wishes of real American voters.
Good to see at least a few Democrats publicly showing some concern. Better get real fast or lose this great country by ignoring the very real threat.
"Dave Begley said...
This Rhodes Scholar is a smooth talker just like Obama and Clinton, but there is really no doubt that he is a Socialist (Medicare for all) and a Jew hater."
I won't forget this sort of bland defamatory lying from all corners of MAGA leadership. It isn't just Dave Begley doing this sort of stupid hyperpartisanship. Senators Kennedy, McCormick, Moreno, Cruz all came to Michigan to campaign for Mike Rogers even as Rogers desperately tries to run away from Trump's tariffs, Trump's Iran War, Trump's gas prices, and even Trump's fucking up the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge. Then Trump himself came to Michigan and Mike stood smiling next to him. Every one of them outdid each other in saying the most amazingly false, dumb, racist, Islamaphobic, insulting crap about Abdul. They will never live it down, when Senator El-Sayed joins the World's Greatest Deliberative Body.
As for Mike Rogers; he is a perfect emblem of how completely fucked your MAGA "Republican" Party is in Michigan, Dave Begley.
Within MAGA, Rogers is suspect because he actually had a credible career in Congress before there was a "Trump" as we now know him. Rogers is suspect with QAnon because he had a personal history in the FBI and intelligence and is suspect to them as "deep state." Rogers is also notoriously suspect for having (properly) condemned Trump right after 1/6/21.
More broadly, Rogers is suspect for being fundamentally disingenuous. Most traditional Republicans in Michigan know him as one of their own, and that is absolutely how Rogers gets into the mix in any crowded primary. But to win his primary in 2024 (the previous race where Rogers lost the general even when Trump won the state), Rogers had to scramble to be as MAGA as he possibly could be. He needed Trump's personal endorsement to win the primary. Or he thought he did. And he got it. And now I expect that he is looking at his second straight loss, and it will be time for him and his consultant second wife Kristi to move back to Florida. Insofar as Mike Rogers has now made his life choice with "MAGA," he's going to be stuck with it in failure.
MAGA is going to be so fucked in Michigan, Dave. This is an election cycle following 2 terms of a Democratic executive trifecta in Michigan. (Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State.) Historically, it ought to be a Republican sweep. That's how it normally goes. But this year we're going to get another round of Democrats if all the polling is correct. (In 2022, statewide polling on those races UNDER estimated Democratic performance.) Even when Michigan Republicans tried to nominate some more carefully vetted and less-crazy MAGA freaks for this election, the guys they nominated STILL couldn't talk about who won the 2020 election.
Former Govenor Rick Snyder, who will have almost nothing to do with Trump or Trumpism, did a masterful non-Trump job of helping Republicans take back the Micihgan state house majority in 2024. That majority may now be lost in 2026. There just aren't any young MAGA political stars in Michigan now. After 2026, MAGA is as lame duck as it could possibly be in this state.
We can chat again in a few days, Dave Begley, when I can spike this god damned football.
LOL at the “Dr. El-Sayed” thing. Leftists love their titles.
Smells like a little panic from our favorite LLR.
Chuck’s going to spike the football if the Jew hater wins in Michigan. Guess what Chuck, he hates America too. Don’t believe me? Listen to his mentor, the Pike guy talk about 911.
Aggie, ref Kalshi, also, how much of the betting is wishful thinking or uninformed thinking? To make a sports analogy, there are probably people who bet on their hometown's lovable losers no matter what. Back in the political world, are there people who bet on their favorite candidate or party no matter what? And what about people who live in Pauline Kael bubbles: everyone I know is voting lefty, so this bet is a sure thing! Add these phenomena to your scenario of rich lefties trying to depress the right into staying home, and Kalshi may really not show how likely the Left is to win. CC, JSM
Unalloyed, monotonic, progressive, baby, is a feature. Sometimes divergent armed with liberal license.
Israel has a firm grip on both parties through AIPAC, which is somehow not recognized as foreign influence on our elections, even though they spend billions getting their people elected, this included Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next speaker, and Chuck Schumer. So they, Democratic leadership, would rather have a Republican than somebody not beholden to AIPAC, the way Trump is for hundreds of millions for his campaign alone.
But why is some woman's phobia of Islam worthy of a mention in the New York Times as proving anything. Unless she has actual evidence.
"The Senate race in Michigan... will test moderate and independent voters’ appetite for a combative brand of unalloyed Marxism..."
FIFY, NYT.
“I suspect the Times wants El-Sayed to lose.”
Along with every decent, normal person in the US of A. (Emphatically does not include drooling, spittle-flinging, Chuck.)
"I suspect the Times wants El-Sayed to lose."
If so, they've got a lot of company. And even a stopped clock gets it right every now and then.
El-Sayed is a bellwether. If he wins, it will confirm that the Democrat Party now belongs to a consortium of Islamists, Marxists and useful idiots including malcontents like Antifa, LGBTQ activists, antisemites, BLM, secular progressive Jews, etc.
Chuck don’t waste your time with any comment from Dave Begley. Dave is consistently wrong about everything. The idiot said the Iran war would be over by April. When that proved wrong he doubled down and said it would be over by October 1st based on some bullshit he read by Victor Davis Hanson. Better to skip over ole Dave’s opinions. Dave, like many commentators here, are bitter hateful bigots that follow their leader Trump wherever he leads. My guess is that the Republicans, which I myself recently was, are going to suffer historic losses next week because of the bullshit war in Iran and Trump’s Israel first policies.
It's not a question of ideology. It's a test of intelligence and the quality of your education. Are you stupid or not?
If you ever flushed an airliner toilet. That's your blue wave.
You ever notice that the people who accuse The Other Team of being bitter, hateful bigots are the most bitter, most hateful and most bigoted members of Their Team?
It occurs to me that, win or lose in any given election cycle, the Democrats are screwed by the very hysteria they’ve locked in. I understand that their goal is graft, not credible governance, but without that governance, their times in power are going to be increasingly short. Which means fewer opportunities to accrue graft and more opportunities for their opponents to defund them. The next two years will be an absolute typhoon of whipping their base into ever increasing hysterics with performative Congressional antics, but they’ll end up putting off so many sane people that a President Rubio is almost a certainty in 2028.
I wonder how much Chuck supports El_Sayad's view that "Arab men who mate with non Arab women are in danger of creating mongrels." El-Sayed is openly racist by his own writings. Something Chuck is eager to "Spike the football" by electing an actual, unrepentant racist. A guy who literally claims that marrying the "wrong race" leads to miscarriages and birth defects. That's Chuck's preferred candidate! Plus, of course, all the communism and terrorism that El-Sayad supports.
Flag on the play... illegal use of "sour grapes."
Old hotness: You can be against Israel without being an anti-Semite.
New hotness: You can't be against the Muslim Brotherhood without being an Islamophobe.
The word “bullshit” and the esteemed Victor Davis Hanson don’t belong together. Get a clue.
El-Sadboi.
So tell us Chuck, who is the greater threat to the U.S., Israel or Iran? Your candidate in Michigan has refused to answer. Care to take a crack at it?
Note to Tim in Vermont: I would ask that you sit this one out, we already know your answer.
‘First they came for the Gypsies and I said nothing, for I was not a Gypsy.
Then they came for the Somalis and I said, “make sure you get all the Somalis!” ‘
h/t Shit Stirring Bastard
I knew I smelled something. Who let Chuck in here?
I think it's been much more than a year since I have responded to anything you've written, Vance; in that sense it's been a very good year for me. But now you pollute this page with this:
"Vance said...
I wonder how much Chuck supports El_Sayad's view that 'Arab men who mate with non Arab women are in danger of creating mongrels.' El-Sayed is openly racist by his own writings. Something Chuck is eager to 'Spike the football' by electing an actual, unrepentant racist. A guy who literally claims that marrying the 'wrong race' leads to miscarriages and birth defects. That's Chuck's preferred candidate! Plus, of course, all the communism and terrorism that El-Sayad supports.
10/31/26, 12:20 PM"
The notion that you aren't simply a MAGA troll, but that you are also suffering from some sort of serious mental disease or defect has always been a bit of a curiosity for me. In simple terms, you're out of your mind.
In keeping with that idea, your purported quote from El-Sayed isn't real. The whole thing is another MAGA fantasy. Maybe you know that, Vance. More probable, at least to me, is that you aren't able to distinguish between reality and the alt-universe of MAGA trolling.
To the few sentient beings still left on Althouse's comments pages; check on Vance. Put his stupid "quote" through your favorite fact checking search engine.
Abdul never said it and he never wrote it.
You should be ashamed, Vance, but I think that like so much of MAGA, you are not capable of shame.
"Humperdink said...
So tell us Chuck, who is the greater threat to the U.S., Israel or Iran? Your candidate in Michigan has refused to answer. Care to take a crack at it?"
No. Thanx for asking.
I support the defense of Israel; a critical U.S. ally in a dangerous and anti-democratic part of the world.
I loathe the Netanyahu government of Israel. I'm looking forward a new government and a serious investigation as to how the attack and massacre of 10/7/23 occurred. And the renewed prosecution of Netanyahu for years of corruption. I know that millions of Israelis agree with me.
None of those things affected my vote in the Michigan election for US Senate. I voted against Mike Rogers because he is endorsed by Trump and because he has endorsed Trump, and because he has forgotten his reasonable past and now can't say who won the 2020 election.
Chuck:
Do you live in Michigan? Politically speaking, I think it is a very strange state.
The current Governor is Big Gretch who was just unhinged when it came to Covid. Don't know anything about Rick Snyder, but Jennifer "The Grifter" Granholm was a real piece of work. As Energy Secretary, she handed out billions to her friends in the Green Industrial Complex. Both of these women are very unlikable. They both give me that Nurse Ratched vibe.
I do know that MI is very far north. And MI has central decision making re siting and approving solar and wind projects. MIchigan also has a Net Zero law. The average cost of residential electricity in MI is $0.22 to $0.23 while the US average is $0.1831 per kwh. There's a direct connection there.
This difference in electricity prices is only going to get worse now that the wind and solar energy credits are gone.
How can the people of MI be so stupid? Is it because they are born Democrat and vote Democrat regardless? Or is it shitty public schools that don't teach people how to critically think? And then, of course, there is the deep rot at the University of Michigan football program with the the cheating.
All and all, this is very sad. Once the libs get into power, they wreck everything. Objectively, there's no question about it. Look what the Dems did to MN, CA and San Francisco.
And, BTW, I'm not going to put a date on it (and I was foolish to do so in the past) but we are going to finish off the mullahs in short order. The Middle East will be totally transformed. Peace!
Well Vance, it is simple. What is old again is new. The democrat party has a long history of enacting Anti-miscegenation laws. That is what is now apparently on the table. Chuck disagrees. So Chuck, what do black folk in Michigan think? Before Chuck gets all huffy, I'll just point out that I neither know or care what the Michigan Muslim said about the issue, but it is on the table.
Next UP: Sharia Law!
Chuck:
Per your 1:21 post, I see you have TDS. That's too bad.
Don't pay any attention to Trump's manner and style. He just landed a giant new steel mill in IA and a giant Audi plant for GA. Obama ever do that?
Policy and results over personality. Wise up.
Eating the rich is a big winning issue for the DSA candidates.
The Liberals hate the rich right now.
The moderates hate the rich right now.
A lot of Conservatives also hate the rich right now.
Just watch how destroyed Steve Hilton will get in the California Governor's election next week. (I still can't believe that the Republicans thought it was a good idea to put a billionaire on the ballot...in California!)
And about the New York Times....
They're becoming that cliche of the old man shouting at the clouds. People are tuning them out.
The Conservatives have always disliked the NYT.
The moderates have been turned off by the blatant bias of the NYT.
A lot of the Liberals cannot tolerate being criticized in any way. They take that as an unforgiveable attack and will unperson you for it.
Chuck:
If you are so confident that Mike Rogers will lose, I invite you to go to Kalshi and bet that way. One dollar bet on the Jew hater means you get $1.27 when he wins. Easy money!
Roughly 15 percent of Trump voters also voted for Obama, and 10 percent for Bernie Sanders. Given a sufficiently progressive message, why wouldn’t they also vote for El-Sayed?
"Just watch how destroyed Steve Hilton will get in the California Governor's election next week. (I still can't believe that the Republicans thought it was a good idea to put a billionaire on the ballot...in California!)"
Steve Hilton does not appear to be a billionaire. Are you referring to someone else?
"Steve Hilton’s net worth is estimated at about $50 million (a combined figure with his wife, Rachel Whetstone). This estimate is based on public information about their earnings and wealth." duck.ai
Chuck and Inga show up all of a sudden, thinking they're going to get to gloat.
…the description of betting markets you’re looking for is thinly traded. Millions on a proposition is not much money compared to the largely countless billions at the disposal of the major parties. Dumping mere millions to shape perception may be money well spent, at least until everyone catches on to the ruse…
…the description of betting markets you’re looking for is thinly traded. Millions on a proposition is not much money compared to the largely countless billions at the disposal of the major parties. Dumping mere millions to shape perception may be money well spent, at least until everyone catches on to the ruse…
Ditto Aggie but I’d add that Act Blue has a lot of “small donations” from folks who don’t know that they donated.
Lawnerd said...
Chuck don’t waste your time with any comment from Dave Begley. Dave is consistently wrong about everything. The idiot said the Iran war would be over by April.
The war in Iran was over in April.
We are keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed by choice until the rulers of Europe fall and the systemic structural manufacturing advantage SE Asia held is permanently eliminated.
"MAGA is going to be so fucked in Michigan, Dave."
That's fine with me, but what about Islamists who want to fuck over Jews and America in general?
"My guess is that the Republicans, which I myself recently was, are going to suffer historic losses next week because of the bullshit war in Iran and Trump’s Israel first policies."
That's interestng. I don't recall the old GOP hating Israel and Jews, with the exception of Pat Buchanan.
“ El Sayed and his family support the Muslim Brotherhood.”
“Obama supports El Sayed.”
Of course he does. He did while in office. Much of the Arab Spring was Obama and Crooked Hillary pushing out US aligned moderate Arab leaders in favor of Muslim Brotherhood and their descendants.
My theory has long been that Crooked Hillary was receptive to the biases of her top aid (and intimate) Huma Abedin, whose family has long been tied closely to the MB. And who is now married to Alex Soros, son and hire of the infamous George Soros.
“ The war in Iran was over in April.
“We are keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed by choice until the rulers of Europe fall and the systemic structural manufacturing advantage SE Asia held is permanently eliminated.”
I agree with his point that the war was essentially over this spring. Less so everything else.
For the last several months, the war with Iran has been economic, and not kinetic. That’s why the left complains about it - almost no US service members coming back in flag draped caskets. But the Red component of their Red/Green alliance is seeing their paymasters and leaders (the Red Chinese) significantly hurt by the economic war. They no longer get to trade missiles and their parts for below market oil. Instead, they have to buy their oil, through us, at prevailing, or above, prices. Buying it through the US means that their planned invasion of Taiwan is on hold, as well as their expansion of power into the S China Sea.
And don’t forget the Green side of the alliance. Iran was subsidizing and arming radical Islamic groups throughout the region. They are now asking for their money and missiles back. Good luck with that.
*My guess is that the Republicans, which I myself recently was...*
Oh, we've never heard THAT one before.
And just like all the others who make that claim? You're full of shit.
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