Writes Ruy Teixeira, in "How a ‘blue wave’ ultimately could cripple the Democratic Party/Midterms success could blind Democrats to problems for 2028 and beyond" (WaPo)(gift link).
২৯ অক্টোবর, ২০২৬
"Democrats don’t have an easy road ahead. But, paradoxically, the better they do in 2026, the more likely they are to ignore their party’s weaknesses with working-class and rural voters."
"Those weaknesses led to Trump winning the 2024 election, but they are likely to fade from the party’s memory as Democrats, buoyed by the fool’s gold of midterms success, attempt to placate an energized left.
Celebration is easy; confronting underlying problems is hard. Thus, when Republicans get shellacked on Nov. 3, expect Democrats to see the result as an enthusiastic endorsement of the party rather than a repudiation of the GOP — a far more plausible explanation...."
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৭৩টি মন্তব্য:
All the left care about is harm and vengeance.
Medicare should be sured-up for its intended purpose. A safely net for the elderly and those who truly cannot afford it.
That Hasan Pike and Obama demand it for everyone - just gross.
Wealthy leftists who can afford to skip past all of it, will ruin our nation over it.
Universal government run health care is a disaster.
Everything regresses to the mean. Statistically, the slim GOP majority is likely to result in fewer seats switching overall because of the mid term effect. If Dems do end up with a majority, Trump needs a plan to pull a handful of centrist Dems to join or caucus with the GOP, which will be easier if the DSA gains influence.
They have chosen...poorly. They will pay accordingly.
I'm no expert on political analysis, but I would put it this way: Stepping on a rake can lead to better situational awareness.
Gee..... it's almost as if they don't really want to win. Blue Wave to Blue Ripple to Rumors of Blue. What's next? Blue Wednesday?
"Stepping on a rake can lead to better situational awareness."
Where the DSA is concerned, I expect it to look like this for years to come.
Gavin wants his Jonestown moment. We'll know the end is near when he starts wearing dark aviator sunglasses.
The only variables to be determined about leftists and their 100% predictable failures are: How long will it take, and how many will they take with them on the way down? There are no examples in history of anything else.
Well, losing in 2024 didn't cause them to have any introspection. Dems when they lose -
1. GOP stole it
2. GOP suppressed the vote
3. The voters are stupid/racist/sexist
4. The media suppressed our narrative.
@bagoh20, Chile is a great historical example of leftists "not flying so good" when jumping from helicopters without a chute...solo.
Is it too early for Democrats to start blaming each other for next week's lackluster election results?
𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘴 "𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘭𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰 𝘨𝘰𝘰𝘥" 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘫𝘶𝘮𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘩𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘰𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘤𝘩𝘶𝘵𝘦...𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘰.
We skied at Las Leñas in the early 1990s, taking a break from an expedition to northern Chile and Bolivia. The skiing was amazing, but we were taken aback by the sheer ability of the local skiers. Had we stumbled upon some tribe of extraordinary Andean alpinists? They whizzed around, carving beautiful lines, launching off cliffs and dropping into gullies. Everyone seemed young, fearless and beautiful.
It was only after sharing a lift with a few of them that we realized they were, in fact, members of the US and European World Cup teams, training there.
August offers great skiing. We took the family to Portillo, where it seemed almost everyone was American. It really makes you appreciate the naturally cosmopolitan character of the Alps. The hotel, by contrast, felt a bit like an upmarket Pontins, and the clientele seemed to be dominated by a different nationality at each stage of the season.
Still, it’s an extraordinary ski area. https://skiportillo.com/en/home/
Let’s clarify… the Democrats are blinded by having their heads up their asses.
it can be fairly said that after each election, both parties will learn absolutely the wrong lessons.
Democrats are drooling and Slotkin-ing to destroy lives and act like little mini-me Hasan pikers and Lulas.
I congratulate, in advance, the Dems for their victory next Tuesday. They finally got the message, aka the deception, right. Do they still need to flood the country with 'illegal visitors' going forward? Do they still need to 86 Trump?
Ruy hasn't gotten anything right since Trump hit the scene. Every column is an exclusive because he's the only Democrat saying what he says.
If people can’t tell the difference between one guy and the one whose name is followed by “Republican Incumbent” on the ballot, I don’t know what to say.
In Alaska, just because the fire company put out the fire in time, it doesn't mean the arsonists should avoid prosecution and public shaming.
How many people are watching france and saying "Why should I vote for the party that wants to bring that here?"
"Gavin wants his Jonestown moment."
"Of what’s going to happen here in a matter of a few days, is that the DSA is take control of this party's airplane. I know that. I didn’t plan it, but I know it’s gonna happen. They’re gonna shoot this party, and down comes our airplane into the jungle and there had better not be any children left without access to sexual reassignment surgery when it’s over, ’cause they’ll parachute in here on us and take em away! I’m telling you just as plain as I know how to tell you, I’ve never lied to you…I never have lied to you. I know that’s what’s gonna happen, that’s what DSA intends to do and we'll do it. We’ll do it. What’s there being so bewildered with many, many pressures on my brain, seeing myself behave so treasonously, it is just too much for me to put together, but, I now know what I've been telling you and it’ll happen. Even if the plane doesn't get off the ground. So my opinion is that we look as much as possible that we're kind to children, and kind to seniors, and give them the potion like they used to take in ancient Greece, and lie to them about stepping over quietly. That they are not committing suicide. Voting for us is a revolutionary act! They can’t go back. We won't leave them alone! We're going to go back to tell more lies which means more DSA congressmen! And there’s no way, no way they can survive! Anybody that has any dissenting opinion, please speak, but if their children are left we’re gonna have them butchered. Drink the Socialist of America Koolaid!"
- Gavin "Peoples' Temple" Newsom (allegedly)
Help the Democrats.
No blue wave.
Vote Republican 2026
"Democrats don’t have an easy road ahead."
Because it's a cliff. The good news is it's all down hill.
"Gnarly cliff brah! No chutes brah! Chutes are for pussies!"
Denise Powell is the Dem running for the House from Omaha's Blue Dot. Her total campaign was hating on Trump. She totally ignored the male blue collar vote. She's a Hispanic and told Major Garrett of CBS News that she's a "person of color." I can't imagine Blacks liked that.
The Democrat party is a crime syndicate - & no one is joking.
In the UK the conservative voters, disgusted with their party, stayed home and the liberal party took over in a landslide and is following the exact same policies.
Coke or Pepsi, it’s all sugar water. Still I will vote straight Democrat this election because Trump broke his promises on war, the deep state, and Epstein, put a Soros henchman in at Treasury and has been doing a Soviet style purge of the pentagon and filling it with the war mongers he said he opposed.
I mean, this is a state where voters knew Lisa Murkowski well enough to elect her to the Senate as a write-in candidate in 2010. The GOP’s assumption that Alaskans don’t know who they’re voting for could spectacularly backfire.
Trump is using the presidency to enrich his family to the tune of billions. He is selling first access to his announcements to high frequency traders, for God’s sake. He makes sure his family gets cut in on foreign energy deals, like dividing up seized Russian assets, or the deals don’t happen. I could go on.
Trumpcoin was a Ponzi scheme to take in suckers and funnel hundreds of millions to the Trump family.
"Trump broke his promises on war, the deep state, and Epstein, put a Soros henchman in at Treasury"
Yep, voting straight Democrat will fix all that. Maybe throw in fixing healthcare and cleaning up fraud and waste too. And who better to secure our elections? California is the beacon on the hill for all true conservatives.
"Trumpcoin was a Ponzi scheme"
Unlike the Obamacare scheme, nobody forced you to buy in.
Jaq's hatred of Israel clouds his judgement. So be it.
It's long past tired.
Trump was already a Billionaire. And if he is stocking up the cash for the impending Slotkin-Lula treatment - who can blame him?
"It's long past tired."
And yet, it'll continue.
“Still I will vote straight Democrat this election because Trump broke his promises on war, the deep state, and Epstein, put a Soros henchman in at Treasury and has been doing a Soviet style purge of the pentagon and filling it with the war mongers he said he opposed.”
You and millions of others, hopefully. We will see.
*Still I will vote straight Democrat this election ...*
You're not fooling anybody, Covid Tim.
What's deeply disappointing is that something like what just happened in Brazil not only doesn't bother many American Democrats; they actually envy it. So many Democrats today no longer care about America, democracy, fairness, or individual liberties. They don't even have a coherent alternative to any of it. They just hate whatever is valued by certain people who they, for some reason, have decided they hate. They would rather sink the boat than row back toward the terra firma that made them the richest, freest people on earth. They don't understand how rare their situation is, and how fragile.
There are 20 Republican Senators on the ballot. And only 13 Democrats. So a blue wave is likely.
My picks!
Alabama: R
Alaska: R
Arkansas: R
Delaware: D
Florida: R
Georgia: D
Idaho: R
Illinois: D
Iowa: R
Kansas: D
Kentucky: R
Louisiana: R
Maine: D
Massachusetts: D
Michigan: R
Minnesota: D
Mississippi: R
Montana: R
New Hampshire: D
New Jersey: D
New Mexico: D
North Carolina: D
Ohio: D
Oklahoma: R
Oregon: D
Rhode Island: D
South Carolina: R
South Dakota: R
Tennessee: R
Texas: R
Virginia: D
West Virginia: R
Wyoming: R
Democrats pick up 2 seats, Republicans retain a slight advantage. I hope. I also suspect the Democrats will take the House.
Today is the last day for early voting in MD (Only fed level office at issue is representative). I voted at about 10:00 AM. I was surprised by the number of people voting--no line to check in but parking lot full, 12 voting booths occupied and a short line to vote electronically. Looked like a Republican crowd (lots of pickup trucks), but I'm new here. This is the only Republican district in MD and there is a constitutional amendment on the ballot which will essentially allow the Dems to gerrymander us out of existence (they have made no secret of it), so maybe that skewed the turnout.
How many is a wave, a tsunami, a minor swell, a lil-chub? If the Dems lose seats, is that a suckage?
Vote against blue, no matter who.
The Democrats have funded/are running fake Independent candidates in several states just to show how honest they are, and how much they value American voters and “Our Democracy”.
Dishonest scum.
It pains me to say this, but your lips to Satan’s ass, Saint Croix!
(cntd) @5:14PM
I voted yesterday. I did my homework. I went through every race and two pages of judges, one by one, skipping the half that were running unopposed. What's the point with those?
I found it very efficient to just ask grok to compare the candidates in whatever race. You can get pretty much everything there is to know about them in seconds, and you can then ask follow ups. Very modern.
David Begley,
I have no idea what a "hispanic" is. Or rather, I know 6-8 conflicting legal definitions for this bullshit made up word.
Denise Powell is of Cuban-Chilean heritage. That makes her a "person of color" along with all other Cubans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans and central and south Americans. (And Filipinos?)
Are you confusing "colored person" (A/K/A black, African-American, Negro etc) with "Person of Color"? Two completely different things.
I'm am whiter than Casper's ghost but, because I am Puerto Rican, I am officially a "Person of Color" Please respect my victimhood.
I am not Puerto Rican by birth or ancestry. That would be scotch-Irish-German like many South Americans though I was born in NY. I identify as Puerto Rican and more than 55 years here give me far more right to do so than any of these cross-dressers have to identify as some different sex.
The idea that I am a "person of color" is dumber than dogshit. Yet here we are. I don't make these stupid rules, I just live in a world with idiots who do.
You know who else is a person of color? Sen Ted Cruz.
Next time I get to Omaha I am going to insist on reparations in the form of you buying me dinner. You owe me, whitey.
John Henry
It pains me to say this, but your lips to Satan’s ass, Saint Croix!
heh
Elizabeth Hurley, right?
…exactly the kind of story one expects from propaganda media less than a week from election day and they know they’re losing. See people- but losing we have them right where we want ‘em!
I think there's a scenario where Republicans take Iowa (haven't lost there in a century) and New Hampshire (Sununu dynasty), and Collins holds on in her mystifying RINO way.
We would actually pick up a seat, in that scenario. That would be surreal! I would love it if the polls were off and the journalists were embarrassed (again). That would be awesome.
Saw the Alaska Dem candidate that recruited Decoy Dan on the news tonight. Boy, did she look panicked…
Suppose the Democrats manage to remove Trump. What then? Trump-hate is the glue that holds their coalition together. They will manage to heap their abundant hate on whoever the next Republican is, but it won't replace actually having a policy agenda.
Ruy Teixeira doesn't mention this, but the real danger for the Dems is that if they the get a blue wave, and take majorities in the House and the Senate, they will try to impeach Trump again.
They can't help themselves.
And that will backfire in 2028, and Vance will be our next president.
A possibly downside for Republicans is that we keep the House and the Senate, and Trump is sending welfare checks to every American. That's a recipe for a blue wave in 2028.
For every wave, there's a counter.
"Boy, did she look panicked…"
If she didn't do anything wrong...
I think there's a scenario where Republicans take Iowa (haven't lost there in a century)
oops, I meant to say Kansas.
Who would vote against the side that gave you your stolen money back? I don't know anybody like that since I left CA.
"Who would vote against the side that gave you your stolen money back?"
People who think that money belongs to the government, maybe?
"I don't know anybody like that since I left CA."
Well, there you go.
If you think that Israeli foreign policy objectives are more important than American ones, I have to question your patriotism,
Hey if Timmie questions your patriotism, you're doing alright.
The Dems will do nothing for the people who might vote for them in this coming election. That's what Teixera thinks will happen in the case of a Dem victory, i.e., nothing for the people, red meat actions such as impeachments, investigations for the DSA types. Then, another election and demography brings down the high flyers. I still have hopes for this election based on Netanyahu's unexpectedly strong showing in Israel. He did better than he himself expected of himself showing that the current electorate is truly un predictable. So there's that. But beyond that is the fact that in the US the workers and the Jews now support the Republicans and the elite support the socialists. This makes me think that the wishes of the current electorate are unknown to anyone. They'll be better known after this election - that's all I'm sure of, Like Teixeira, I think those wishes are carrying a change that is not what it seems.
"This makes me think that the wishes of the current electorate are unknown to anyone."
If you're the least bit conservative, the safe approach (unless you live in a solidly red location) is to keep your head down. Leftists have demonstrated that they don't see anything wrong with assaults on their opponents, up to and including murder.
Teixiera is a traditional liberal Democrat who is in denial that the progressives (and those even further left) are now the Democratic mainstream. Win or lose, they will not be moving back to the center.
When the GOP moved right in opposition to Obama, the center was wide open for them to claim. Instead, they moved further left and have continued moving left ever since.
They did not moderate at the end of Obama's tenure during which they lost nearly 1000 elected offices.
And even though Biden campaigned as a centrist who would bring the country together, what he really did was capitulate to the policy preferences of Bernie Sanders and the DSA.
These articles are dumb. I've stopped reading about predictions. The interesting ideas are the post mortems.
Has anyone heard a word about what policies Democrats are actually claiming to support? We know their slogans: "OrangeManBad! High gas prices! No Kings except Charles! Iran Great, Jews bad!" But what, exactly, are their policies they want? I mean, they say they aren't actually communist and only a few of their candidates are that. So: what's their plan to bring down "Trumpflation!" or "Lower Trump's gas prices!" IEEE has been on here for a month screaming "Look at the price of Diesel!" Ok... so what's Democrat's plan to lower that price? IEEE also screams "how DARE Trump try to arrange for more diesel from other countries!" so it's clear Democrats as a whole don't actually care one whit about this topic.
Anyone heard any policies besides "Total Democrat dictatorship and then we start the pograms, arrests, and putting people in camps who disagree with us?"
I dunno..... I think the severe leftward shift of the party has mostly been due to having the benefactors on the far left - Soros, Singham, US A.I.D., etc. It's not a grassroots movement, it's bought & paid for by deep pockets. And some of those are gone now, and the machinery has been exposed. How long can it continue?
Aside from a small bunch of vocal advocates, activist, so on, the Democratic Party no longer serves its voters, and hasn't since Obama 1. Instead it's trying to condition them leftward. I don't think it will work. I think the loss of the US A.I.D. sugar teat is a milestone signifying the beginning of the end. Without popular support from the base, the cause won't continue. I think there will be a reversion to the mean, and a return to relevance.
We'll see.
In the attic of the Democrat party live two old uncles. They are the old warriors Teixiera and Carville. Remember when Willie Wonka said calmly “Stop, No, Come back” to the bad kid? That was Teixiera. He knew that Democratic conquest must be from the center to the edges. University masses trained by English Dept. communists were not going to be convincing in America.
Remember the wolf of Wall Street? That was Carville. The slash and burn mouth of the South who thought that insult would minimize the enemy and that any Democrat caught in bad deed would be excused by assaulting the victim. Nuts and Sluts.
Teixiera Is right but will have no impact on DSA. Carville thinks he is right in his focus on the application of micrometers to Trumps sins. Niether shift the vote by 0.1 pct.
I think it should be policy in Illinois that no more than 3 Teachers Union officials can ride on the same aircraft. It would be horrific if an accident occurred and Illinois was left without its governing body.
"The GOP’s assumption that Alaskans don’t know who they’re voting for could spectacularly backfire."
Um ... ... ... that was actually Peltola's assumption. And it looks like it did backfire.
Are there any "centrist Democrats" left? And are any Democrats in Congress going to vote with the Republicans? Both of those propositions are unlikely. If Democrats are able to pick up seats in unlikely places, however, that could reorient the party away from DSA. They might realize that there are other places to get votes than among the woke.
Are there any "centrist Democrats" left?
Of course. Roy Cooper is running away with it in my state. And Josh Stein is our governor. These are normal, happy people. The angry DSA shit-show is limited to New York City and L.A., the two media centers in the USA. So the media has no idea how skewed and crazy they are. And they're oblivious to how disliked they are.
“And are any Democrats in Congress going to vote with the Republicans?
In the Senate, there’s Fetterman, at least on some issues. And Murkowski and Collins now and again.
@Saint Croix, is that the same Roy Cooped who tried to kill everybody in Western Notth Carolina who didn’t live in Asheville after the hurricane. The guy who ordered helicopters that had been rescuing people and bringing supplies into the stricken area to be grounded for days. Same guy?
Big Mike,
Not voting for him. I'm pro-life all the way.
So I haven't done any sort of deep dive into how incompetent his hurricane response was. The hurricane was bad, and people were suffering for months. My church was involved in fund-raising for it.
My point was that he's not DSA, not Muslim Brotherhood, and he doesn't have a favorite drag queen. He watches football and goes to church on Sundays. So, you know, normal in the South. I go to church with people like this.
You're accusing him of murder, basically, when you say he "tried to kill everybody in Western North Carolina." You'd need evidence to convince me of that. I go to church with liberals. I don't know how incompetent or bad his emergency response moves were. I just haven't seen the malignancy that you are claiming is there.
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