Here's the NYT report (gift link):
My questions:
• What proportion of the votes for Hong were supporters of the Republican candidate Tom Tiffany — voters who thought Hong would be a weak opponent for him? It was an open primary, and I saw some open encouragement of this behavior. Tiffany obviously had his nomination sewn up. You can see that David Crowley only won by about 3,000 votes. How much larger would his margin of victory have been without those insincere strategic votes for Hong?
• Why did Hong concede so quickly, with such a narrow margin? Why not wait at least until all the votes are in? Why not ask for a recount? She's entitled to a recount if the margin is 1% or less, but it's only paid for by the state if it's less than 0.25%. To drag out the process after the primary would help Tiffany. That's good reason not to indulge in a recount, but why not wait until all 100% of the votes are counted? She conceded when it was less than 95%.
• Why were the polls so bad?! The final Marquette poll, from July 22–27, released July 29, had Hong at 38% and Crowley at 7%. There was also another candidate at 16% (Barnes), but he dropped out. Still, giving all the Barnes votes to Crowley would only put Crowley at 23%. That 38% for Hong looked awfully strong. But I wouldn't assume the polls got it wrong. The polls inspired a lot of people to attack Hong, making her look unusually foolish and driving a lot of Democrats into voting for what is practical and strategic and not for the radical who excited them so much.
• Speaking of exciting radicals in Wisconsin, these votes were falling into place as a highly visible and emotional street protest was escalating in Madison after the death of Corey Ruiz. Though Ruiz had apparently attacked the police with a knife, Hong quickly denounced his killing as "a state-sanctioned… execution." Those protests went on for 2 weeks, mostly during the period when there were no new polls. How much did those impassioned protests turn Wisconsin voters against Hong?
***
As for me, I was going to sit this one out, but in the end I did go over to the Congregational Church and cast a vote.
संदेश
128 टिप्पणियां:
"making her look unusually foolish"
It appeared to me that people were just pointing out Hong's own repulsive statements, hatred, and racism. Foolish seems to be her default setting.
"unusually foolish"
I noted that too, but reasoned AA was comparing her statements to others, not Hong herself.
It was an open primary, and I saw some open encouragement of this behavior.
Rush Limbaugh used to do that. He called it Operation Chaos.
I consider the polls bad and Marquette especially so.
Why did Hong concede so quickly, with such a narrow margin? Why not wait at least until all the votes are in?
She's impatient.
She's getting a lot of media attention, much of it negative, and it's possible that dark money negotiated a buy-out.
Maybe her whole campaign was a scam to raise funds and then keep them at the end of her campaign.
(Maybe some combination of #2 and #3. "We'll donate $300,000 to your campaign if you pull out now.")
With 95% of the votes counted, statisticians can typically predict the final outcome very well. This follows from the voting patterns in the affected districts, whether these were absentee ballots, military ballots, etc.
Typical election conditions may not include the "81 million" votes received by "Joe Biden" in 2020.
Polls have become ever worse decade by decade -- this follows from saturation/disinterest, mistrust, and recently, strategic misdirection per betting/prediction market manipulation and donor-funded astroturfing efforts.
Overall, this suggests TDS is really dying down and it's a return to normal, less passionate, backroom tricks.
Whatever the reason that Hong conceded when she did, it’s a good thing not to drag it out.
Consider how fraudulent the DSA website is. It promises all this free shit. But Americans in 2026 are way more sophisticated about Communism than Russian peasants in 1917.
"We promise you free food, free medicine, free transportation, free energy, free housing, free health care. Vote for us!"
That's Communism, straight up. But it's also fraudulent as shit, right? If private actors were doing this in the corporate sector? They would be investigated by the state.
Along these lines, I was going to link to the DSA platform again, to remind people how crazy it was. And I was shocked to discover the website had been radically changed. And their platform is gone! I can't find it.
Talk about fast. Hong is defeated and the DSA completely shuts down their old website and puts up a new one, hiding their old Commie platform.
I suspect Democrats and dark money. The whitewashing has begun.
Last week, George Karl of ABC talked about the DSA website with AOC. And he read off the various planks. This was after he played a clip of Republicans warning us all about Communism. And Karl asked AOC if she believed in that stuff. And AOC said, "No."
This is the same AOC who used to be a member of the national DNA party. And she is still a member of the regional New York chapter of the DSA.
Anyway, one week later, that old website is gone, and the platform is gone. So maybe they did that in response to the AOC interview. Or at least they built up the software. And then today, after Hong was defeated, they pulled the switch.
No Commie platform, no free stuff across the board. They wiped it away, like Stalin erasing the photo of some general who no longer exists. Platform? What platform?
“insincere strategic votes for Hong”
…while certainly strategic they were definitely not insincere…
Glad you decided to vote. I vote in every single election, even if I have to choose the lesser of two evils.
“Why were the polls so bad?!”
Evergreen…and welcome to 1997…
People drift to the right/conservative viewpoints as they age. Young adults, as recently fed, clothed, and housed by parents at $0 cost to themselves tend to be very generous with other people's money.
Then, they get 'mugged' and/or watch 40% or 50% of their paycheck get 'mugged' by the government. This applies even to AOC and those who ranted with TDS for 10 years.
The DSA enjoyed a relative popularity boost per the treatment of the Bernie Bros circa 2016, "the resistance" of TDS, and delusional COVID mania. This snapped only when Bidenflation proved to not be transitory, CA and NY doubled down on heavy taxation, and the left felt mugged by their own.
Inner City Milwaukee split with Madison and other college towns.
Moderate Democrat. Crowley is a left wing loon as well. Except he’s also corrupt.
There was a time, oh, not so long ago, that the NYT would be celebrating the victory of the black man.
…from what I saw of her she had trouble stringing complete sentences together. Who was her campaign manager, if any, and did they still have spots? With these weirdos and the attention they get from mainstream media because they’re Democrats or Democrat-adjacent or some such we’re all just expected to accept, we sometimes forget the support team may be barely out if college but not particularly educated in any subject other than political talking points….
Perhaps the Michigan primary results woke some people up.
Crowley: "All I can say is that I like Thanksgiving. And my favorite food is dressing."
"Moderate Democrat" There are moderates, progressives, liberals, and on the other side just far-ultra-right fascists. No such thing as "left-wing." Choose well.
…even with Obama they took the time to create a political persona with fake credentials but some communication skills. These Hong candidates lack any of that minimum. Politically nothing but ranting runts…
Some candidates are too crazy even for Wisconsin.
…her defeat offers me some hope we could stop the ‘we’re gonna game the system so we never have to worry about elections and shove our unpopular policies down their gullets’ approach. Maybe a few more defeats and a high profile imprisonment or two from the worst of their felons (looking at you California!), maybe, just maybe we get a pivot to popular policies…
…the whole free stuff for working families thing doesn’t even make sense. If I’m working I know I’ll be targeted to pay for the free stuff. Why would I support that?
…I guess in blue places it’s too easy to become addicted to word salad, so long as there’s generous sprinkles of sugary leftie words lefties like…
Just got done reading the bio on Crowley. There was not a good choice for Democrats in Wisconsin. But then...are there ever? This looks to be almost as if Hong got cold feet and felt relieved when she fell behind. She did not wait until 100% of the vote was in, nor is she asking for a recount. She must have had a moment of realization in the run up that she's in way over her head.
As is Crowley. He is unequipped to be a Governor, but he is a black man from the city and carries with him a classic Democrat answer for taking care of things: Throw as much money at the problem as you can. Example- Instead of fighting the drug problem, let's put out Narcan vending machines. Which is like just throwing up your hands and walking away.
I don't know who Dan...wait...Tom? Tiffany is. I'll have to read up about him next. Not sure how we got to where we have across this country with candidates. They seem to be the least remarkable among us. Let me dive into Tom Crowley...or Tiffany. Or...whoever.
....Back. Tiffany and Crowley both seem to have lost a number of election attempts in their early careers until someone left office leaving a gap for them to fill in. Both seem more like establishment picks of their respective parties. No surprises from either one.
So...have at it Wisconsin. You're back on solid ground.
I don’t know how you can effectively poll in political races in the age of ubiquitous cell phones, fewer land lines, and an ever-increasing reluctance to participate polls. Doesn’t almost everyone screen calls on their cells? And so many, especially young adults but not just them rely on texts over live calls.
Another factor that I ponder is the portability of phone numbers. I don’t have any idea ho widespread the following situation is. I had cell phones in the ‘90s, but those numbers changed. When we got our first smart phones—the day the iPhone came out—we lived in Iowa. Since that day, we moved to two other states, and we certainly have replaced phones over the past almost two decades. But the phone numbers, with the Iowa area code, is exactly the same. I still get politics-related calls, including poll requests, from Iowa. Now, I don’t participate in them, but I could. Is this uncommon or common? I have no idea. When I, rarely, pick up the phone when an unknown, Iowa-prefixed call comes in, and that happens to be a pollster, I haven’t been asked where I actually live. I do immediately say I don’t live there anymore and then disengage. Still, the calls do come (from both Dems and the GOP, because I was registered no party.
Could such issues as this one have an effect, to any degree? I have no answer to that question.
Side note: Though I’ve lived in Florida for several years now and am a registered voter, I’ve not once received a politics-related call on my cell. This was also true in the state I moved to after Iowa but before Florida.
Just a data point.
"Why were the polls so bad?!"
In short, nose rings.
The polling organizations all use the similar if not identical statistical methods. The math hasn't changed, but the psychology has radically changed. The psychological component of opinion polling is the polltakers. Marquette is accustomed to hiring poli sci undergrads to do the actual field work. In today's reality that often means young women and transvestites with electric blue hair, tattoos, and piercing, just the sort of freak a reasonable would rather not talk to, especially about politics, thus the skew. Garbage in, garbage out.
it's NOT who votes that counts..
it's WHO COUNTS the votes
I think the difference between Crowley and Hong is pretty significant.
Why did Hong concede so quickly, with such a narrow margin? Why not wait at least until all the votes are in? Why not ask for a recount? She's entitled to a recount if the margin is 1% or less, but it's only paid for by the state if it's less than 0.25%. To drag out the process after the primary would help Tiffany. That's good reason not to indulge in a recount, but why not wait until all 100% of the votes are counted? She conceded when it was less than 95%.
This should be obvious to anyone above room temperature IQ.
Hong was paid off.
She knew in any recount her opponent would get more mail in "votes" pumped in because democrats needed her to lose and they sat her down and gave her money to shut up.
typo alert: ...just the sort of freak a reasonable PERSON would rather not talk to...
What proportion of the votes for Hong were supporters of the Republican candidate Tom Tiffany — voters who thought Hong would be a weak opponent for him? It was an open primary, and I saw some open encouragement of this behavior. Tiffany obviously had his nomination sewn up. You can see that David Crowley only won by about 3,000 votes. How much larger would his margin of victory have been without those insincere strategic votes for Hong?
LOL!
Ann hates republican voters so much this is her first thought.
No mention that it is democrats who are pushing ranked choice voting and open primaries.
No mention that Republican voters overwhelmingly support closed primaries.
Ann will always hate the little people who don't support abortion. She hasn't changed since the days she voted for a known rapist because he would let her get abortions, and his wife who persecuted the women her husband raped.
Why were the polls so bad?! The final Marquette poll, from July 22–27, released July 29, had Hong at 38% and Crowley at 7%. There was also another candidate at 16% (Barnes), but he dropped out. Still, giving all the Barnes votes to Crowley would only put Crowley at 23%. That 38% for Hong looked awfully strong. But I wouldn't assume the polls got it wrong. The polls inspired a lot of people to attack Hong, making her look unusually foolish and driving a lot of Democrats into voting for what is practical and strategic and not for the radical who excited them so much.
Because they don't count mail in "votes."
See how important that one vote was!
I am very suspicious about why she conceded and didn’t ask for a recount. Occam’s Razor tells me she was paid off.
The consideration? A lifetime’s supply of turkeys.
Wow, what a surprise, the pro Israeli candidate overcame a double digit lead in the last day and Israel buys another US election, and you guys sit in a chair in the corner loving getting cucked by your government and a foreign country.
So, Wisconsin didn't vote for the insecticide... This time. Barely.
Milwaukee fraud saved Crowley.
It was smart for the Democratic establishment to put up David Crowley rather than a candidate like Haley Stevens. The Black vote is now the bulwark against socialism in this country. It used to be the Catholic vote, but now the anti-socialist Catholics vote Republican.
The Wisconsin governor race is officially boring.
Althouse loves it! Boring is her favorite political persona.
Except maybe for funny.
Anyway, this governor's race is officially boring as shit.
Crowley's mission statement: "making life more affordable, strengthening our schools, creating good-paying jobs, and making sure opportunity reaches every corner of our state."
Tiffany's mission statement: "affordability issues, lowering taxes, supporting farmers and improving healthcare."
What a wrestling match!
Affordability vs affordability.
Improving healthcare vs strengthening our schools
creating good paying jobs vs supporting farmers
lowering taxes vs creating opportunity
Mayors are more important than governors. Governors have very little power.
Crowley forgot to renew insurance for 3000 employers
“But the phone numbers, with the Iowa area code, is exactly the same. I still get politics-related call”
…me, too…and I’ve had the same phone number about twenty five years but the texts and robo calls use the name of a previous user of the number…
…that says to me those phone lists consultants sell are REALLY dated…
I'm surprised Milwaukee and Madison went in different directions. But maybe I shouldn't be--it's the perfect distinction between working class left and academic left. In that, it shows just how limited the appeal of the DSA really is.
They've already shot their wad. They have no national potential.
"The Wisconsin governor race is officially boring."
Good points all. The Democrats are all singing from the same hymnal with no lyrics that touch on the trends that increasingly shrink opportunity in blue states and expand opportunity in the red. Boeing, SpaceX, Starbucks, In-and-Out Burgers...
"Some good news (from Powerline Blog in Minneapolis):
"MyPillow man Mike Lindell was a crank candidate for the GOP gubernatorial nomination ... President Trump did his best to preserve the perfect losing record of Minnesota Republicans over the past 20 years by endorsing Lindell. With Lindell at the top of the Republican ticket, we would have been assured that another wipeout awaited Minnesota Repubicans in the races for statewide office. Lindell would also have hurt Republicans running for legislative office in races where Republicans more or less held their own in 2024."
Fortunately, Republicans put a MyPillow on Trump's endorsement of MyPillow man.
Hong loses?
Somewhere the comics are quietly weeping.
I thought about voting for Hong to help Tiffany but in the end I voted for Crowley because I wanted to help avoid any risk of that lunatic being governor.
We can't handle the truth.
Honest AOC:
Hong invited Piker to her Milwaukee rally this week, which probably cost her the needed votes to surpass the Crowley push from Dem Machine. Piker is "road too far" for a fair number of Wisconsin progressives. Stupid move on part of Hong campaign. Rookie mistakes all along the way, yet Hong still performed well above expectations for unknown newbie. However, Crowley himself is mere puppet of Dem Machine with a lot of campaign baggage himself, groomed since college to be "figurehead" candidate for Wisc Dem Party, an election candidate without evident political leadership skills. Incredibly weak candidate. Watch him implode as Fall campaign unfolds.
We all know exactly why the polls were so far off….
"An apparent glitch in the results of roughly 20,000 Democratic absentee ballots in Milwaukee County also threw a late-night wrench in news outlets’ ability to call the race. Five of nine flash-drive memory sticks holding absentee-election results had the required audit information but not the actual results. The drives then needed to be returned to the central count location to be corrected and brought back to the county courthouse, delaying election results by at least an hour. Election officials attributed the glitch to “human error” and said a wrong button was pushed."
LOL. Is this why Crowley won? It'd be hilarious that the Communist lost due to Establishment election fraud.
Love how Rigthwingers are once agains showing their tin ear for politics. Now they're calling "Communists" "DSA". Just like they call Anti-white racism in schools "CRT". They love hitting soft. The Left goes the other way, and wins.
Wow, what a surprise, the pro Israeli candidate overcame a double digit lead in the last day and Israel buys another US election
My conspiracy theory is that rich oil-money from Qatar and Saudi Arabia has poisoned our Ivy League, where the kids were indoctrinated to hate Israel, and to divest all money from Israel, that pariah state.
And then those kids grew up and went out into our society, like The Boys From Brazil. Yeah, that's right, little tiny Hitler clones. And some of them shout, "the Jews are to blame!" They do this in the hillsides, right next to the cows, in Wisconsin.
The Winsonscin Primary race was an Asian v. Black. Since 2008 the D's have nominated for POTUS, 2 women. A black man twice, and one white man. Doesn't look good for Newsome.
Ann will always hate the little people who don't support abortion.
This is a dumb take. You know she's married to Meade, right?
In other news: Governor for Life Ned Lamont?
Dont criticize Israel or the Jewish supremists get upset and spam with thread with one million posts.
I don't think AIPAC bought the election for Crowley. But its hilarious that large numbers of people don't care that Hong is a "Communist" - just that she days bad things about their beloved country - Israel.
@RCOCEAN II:
If Newsom 'runs' for President, it'll be as the safe-white-guy Plan B sock puppet in the Biden tradition. Newsom's mouth and arms will move only in response to the giant hand that runs his sock body.
The Democratic Party continues to be fully owned by the megadonors, academic utopians, and the CBC/single black mothers. The DSA isn't owned by these groups, and thereby attacts non-establishment lefties.
Lazarus - it will never happen of course, but some moderate D talking heads dream of D Pres candidate Ned Lamont. They say he is very effective, practical, and a common sense D. But it will never happen.
So Hong, Farewell (my favorite but I’ve used it previously)
Hong and Winding Road
Hong Story Short
Hong Day’s Night
The Hong and Short of It
Crowley Takes the Hong Road
All’s Well That Ends Crowley
(Never underestimate the power of Turkey Day)
It was Dane County v Milwaukee County. Hong got a big lead in Dane County and split the vote with Crowley in Milwaukee County fairly closely. That's why the vote was close. But close isn't the complete story. I can't find a Milwaukee County precinct breakdown but I feel pretty sure that Dane County aligned with the Milwaukee suburbs and Milwaukee City aligned with Crowley. So the cities are not with the DSA but the suburbs are. There's an Asian v. Black split buried in there. Asians are the largest minority in Dane County; Blacks the largest in Milwaukee. Since Hong was weak and idiotic, the Asians were probably OK with Party leaders telling her to step down; since Crowley is a typical Dem the Blacks see him as having paid his dues and would not have been OK with him being told to go away. But this sort of hides an issue. If you look at the minority the DSA is favoring, it is the Asians, mainly from the Mid-East but also East and South Asia. This is an emerging issue.
Ocean sez call it what it is, and I will:
NAZI !!!
Saint Croix said...
Ann will always hate the little people who don't support abortion.
This is a dumb take. You know she's married to Meade, right?
The Romney/Desantis Republican that still hasn't forgiven us for not supporting COVID lockdowns?
Hong can go back to openly loathing Thanksgiving.
“Last week, George Karl of ABC talked about the DSA website with AOC”
He was a helluva basketball coach, but a terrible journalist…
Priority issue for Evers is his steadfast strong support for "AI data center development" in Wisconsin. Hong supported 1-year state-wide AI data center moratorium, supported prohibition on Evers' $2 billion sales tax waiver for AI data center developers' utility and sales taxes otherwise payable to state. Crawley supports AI data center development, whatever that means.
Key unspoken and late-breaking issue in primary race, which triggered Evers sudden endorsement of Crawley, and Evers sudden intense campaign presence: Wisconsin's Public Service Commission ruled on Aug 6 to deny American Transmission's (ATC) application, for new high-tower power line construction Port Washington data center campus, citing application was incomplete and inaccurate. By denying ATC's approval, Port Washington's mega campus electrical power supply is delayed another 1-2 years. If not jeopardizing entire mega campus project itself. Vantage's PW data center campus development's equity partner is Oracle, which has a downgraded BBB- credit rating.
Port Washington 1000-acre mega AI data center campus project is massive tottering speculative development which may financially fail at anytime. Evers is furious at Aug 6 ruling, because it is another "nail in coffin" for PW project. But given ATC's application is RIDDLED With errors, state's Public Service Commission's denial decision was inevitable IF state was to pretend any semblance of legitimate governance, if Commission's purpose was to be upheld by its permit determinations.
Evers has prioritized mega data center projects, even though there's no demonstrable economic benefit to Wisconsin state coffers, or to its residents. Sure, a couple thousand non-union construction jobs for a 12 month or so time-period, but then only a handful of security guard jobs, handful of janitorial jobs, a handful of equipment maintenance jobs, and property tax bills which reflect the inherent "industrial warehouse" character of a data center development. Property taxes aren't collected on the AI equipment housed in the data center building, only on the simple warehouse structure and the underlying land. Rubes run our local municipal governments. in Port Washington. In Beaver Dam. In Mount Pleasant.
The thought that an election would be lost by a Milwaukee County Dem is inconceivable. Hong never had a chance--there would always be a cache of late-counted votes in Milwaukee that put the favored Dem across the line.
wildswan said...
It was Dane County v Milwaukee County.
And Milwaukee County waited until Dane County reported before deciding how many votes they needed.
This primary was so obviously corrupt. They are missing 5 of the 9 USB drives in Milwaukee county.
If Wong wasn't being paid off she would challenge the election which was obviously rigged.
oops, thanks Iman!
Achilles probably nailed it at 6:39.
The problem with extremophiles is that they're always waiting in the wings. You have to win every time, especially now. They just have to win once. And it's worse because we're really in a 3-way holding action...the dems versus their crazies and us versus the dems, who are still batshit nuts.
Platner was right. Based on these margins they're going to win someday. And all these viruses have to do is win once and they will immediately proceed to setting the cell's machinery to manufacturing as much viral load as possible.
Set phasers to kill.
At Thanksgiving, one turkey is offered clemency. The others are served with a side of [word] salad and yams with marsh "mellows" that look like teenie, weenie, yellow polka dots.
@Achilles: You’re wong about Hong
why wouldn'y she concede?
in the entire history of "recounts", the "recount" has ONLY helped the establishment Dem.. EVER
The amazing thing is that it was over so soon..
usually it takes Several days to manufacture the "vote count".
(remember iowa? back in 2016?
Bernie DOMINATED on cacus night, so much so that it took
THREE DAYS to determine that Pete Buttifuc "won" (with less votes, less delegates, and less support).
Hong Gone, Trumpet's hardest hit.
With the prophylactic pulled off, Democratics remain a viable Choice with Plan B and super! delegates.
“Why were the polls so bad?!”
Someone dug into this with respect to the Michigan contest between El-Sayed and Stevens. I’ll try to find it and link to it, but basically the thesis was that polls necessarily require that people respond to pollsters’ questions. Looking at the demographics of where the vote for Steven’s wss strongest — those counties were heavily working class and/or black. By contrast El-Sayed was strong in college towns. The article’s writer hypothesized that the people supporting El-Sayed were better credentialed (I cannot bring myself to call them “educated”, as they appear to know nothing about economics or sociology) and more eager to push their candidate, while people further down on the economic ladder were deeply suspicious of anonymous strangers asking questions. I’ll try to find the article later this morning.
As noted by Althouse herself, there was a timing issue with the polls. A lot happened between July 29 and the actual election almost two weeks later. Hong’s old votes and tweets became public, and fellow DSA candidate El-Sayed topped Hong’s opposition to Thanksgiving with his own opposition to fireworks on the Fourth of July. The DSA brand doesn’t seem to care for important American holidays.
Ann will always hate the little people who don't support abortion.
Althouse is not a hater. That's the vibe you get? So weird.
I point out that her husband is a pro-life Republican and you dismiss Meade as a "Romney/DeSantis Republican." Okay, one, that's not a thing, you just made it up. And two, Romney is pro-life. DeSantis is pro-life. Meade is pro-life. You might be pro-life. I can't remember. There are a lot of pro-lifers on this blog. And Althouse doesn't hate us. Did somebody pee in your cornflakes this morning?
I think the polls are deviating from reality because of fear. The Woke movement started with straightforward appeals to compassion, evolved into cancel culture and, finally, has turned to violence. I think people are genuinely scared and will not tell the truth even to an anonymous pollster. But when these same people are given a secure, safe environment in which to cast their ballot secretly, they reject the Woke movement.
We need to make the secret ballot mandatory and that means outlawing mail in ballots. Mail in ballots resemble the bad old days when employers, landlords, political operatives and even clergy exerted their influence on how people voted. In legitimate democracies, people vote however they damn well feel, free of coercion.
“ wildswan said...
It was Dane County v Milwaukee County”
Seldom do we get to see such a public fight between Democrat theory and practice. Academic Wisconsin wants the DSA, but Progressive Wisconsin wants a reliable tool for the teachers union who can be frauded over the line. Milwaukee could find the 3000 votes so they won, this time.
It’s interesting that the WI legislature is consistently Republican. Since Republicans are not mail in ballot kings their hope is to have a veto proof majority.
The Democrat machine had more than enough votes stowed away to insure that the communist who was too stupid to deny she's a communist would lose to the closet communist. The only question is what time yesterday they let her know.
Having usb drives of votes show up empty and needing to be reloaded is predictable, for Wisconsin, but it’s not funny anymore.
I asked Grok about this:
"Polls closed at 8 p.m. CT (9 p.m. ET). Reporting began shortly after, with early returns favoring David Crowley slightly. The race between Crowley (Milwaukee County Executive) and Francesca Hong (state representative) stayed extremely close (roughly 40% each for most of the night), with other candidates (including Kelda Roys and withdrawn candidates still on the ballot such as Sara Rodriguez and Mandela Barnes) taking the rest. A human-error delay in uploading Milwaukee City absentee/central-count results (wrong data on some USB drives) pushed major updates into the early morning of August 12. " (wisn.com)
Maybe she just wasn’t that brilliant after all
I'm guessing Wisconsin uses something similar to the devices we use here in Kentucky. The process for closing the ballot tabulator and finalizing the results to the usb drive is relatively straight forward but there's a number of ways the usb could get messed up by incorrect procedures such as powering down the machine or pulling it before shutting down the tabulation software.
isn't it Cute?
how when ever there is a vote "count", the big city HAS TO wait,
until they hear from Other areas HOW MUCH their "count" needs to be
isn't that Cute?
@Big Mike, I would say you are correct about the current problem with polling. The people who are willing to answer a poll now, as opposed to those questioned prior to about 2000, are extremely different from the general population. Even weighting answers by demographics only works if you actually get answers from a sufficient number of people in those demographics.
"But I wouldn't assume the polls got it wrong."
To hold this view is to ignore the fact that the polls are wrong time and time and time again.
Re: Achilles at 8:06AM, the five USB drives weren’t “missing”; they were there. But they contained audit logs instead of the files containing the actual vote results. Officials therefore had to take the drives back to the central-count location, load the correct files, and return them. That delayed the reporting of about 28,000 Milwaukee absentee ballots, i.e., an election-administration mistake attributed to human error.
That is certainly a mistake worth reviewing so it doesn’t happen again. But getting from “officials made a serious mistake” to “therefore the election was obviously rigged” requires evidence that either ballots or vote totals were altered, and none has been shown. Nor does Hong’s decision not to request a recount establish that she was “paid off.” AP called the race at 2:34 a.m.; she later conceded and endorsed Crowley.
The important difference is between a documented error in reporting the count and fraudulently changing the count. We have evidence of the first, not the second. Hanlon’s Razor applies: don’t attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by human incompetence.
The media has determined that Crowley is a "moderate." Every report I have read has used that label except for those who call him a "centrist."
I suspect that this might not be entirely accurate.
Also, over 300,000 Wisconsonians voted for the loon. Good luck with that, Badgers.
'... Why were the polls so bad?! ...' The polls are bad at predicting outcome, and slightly less bad at shaping it. The bigger question is why pols still think that using a poll mechanism is a good way to try to shape public opinion in favor of the candidate they're pushing. It's a stupid idea because it's a dishonest ploy.
If the professional political culture was to revert to the original premise of using valid sampling tools and statistical analysis to understand public opinion and truthfully report it, polls would be a lot better. But pols being pols, they can't resist tampering with the mechanisms to pry out an advantage dishonestly. So polls will continue to be unreliable, unless you're trying to understand what they're pushing at you.
i was watching real-time results pretty closely and Hong was creeping up on Crowley, getting to within about 1,000 votes. All of a sudden Crowley got a step function increase of 5,000 votes. Was that the Milwaukee snafu? Was it really a snafu?
In my little neck of the woods, Crowley got 45% to Hong’s 32%. Those voting Republican vs Democrat ballots was split almost exactly 50/50.
The problem with using Hanlons Razor is that after a while all error fraud or not is deemed incompetence.
The problem with polling is that there are two classes of polls, public polls and insider polls. Why is this? Why would the two not be the same? Why keep one group secret and publish the other. To ask the question is to answer it.
Famously Kammella was ahead in the public polls but later it was released that she was always behind in the insider polls.
All of a sudden. Bang! 5000 votes.
Eva Marie said...
@Achilles: You’re wong about Hong
Noted. Habits.
Peaceful warrior said...
The important difference is between a documented error in reporting the count and fraudulently changing the count. We have evidence of the first, not the second. Hanlon’s Razor applies: don’t attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by human incompetence.
LOL!
There is zero good reason to transport vote counts on flash memory counted in float variables. Zero.
This data can easily be transported on a printed piece of paper that everyone can read.
We all know why traitors in both parties have built this opaque bullshit untraceable bug ridden impossible to audit "election" system.
It would be trivial to make every election 10000% transparent and auditable and impossible to fuck with.
We all know why they don't
'...Re: Achilles at 8:06AM, the five USB drives weren’t “missing”; they were there. But they contained audit logs instead of the files containing the actual vote results. Officials therefore had to take the drives back to the central-count location, load the correct files, and return them....'
That's adorable. Our election oversight is so bulletproof, we can 'inadvertently' load the wrong files onto a memory stick. Because we trust everybody so much, there's no reason to check and verify what you just copied onto the stick ! And there's no reason to have multiple people check and verify, and then sign off on a screen grab showing the contents of the stick, with time and date stamps ! Because Trust !
And while the posse is transporting the 'official' vote tallies, I mean 'audit logs', nothing is going on back at the ranch, with respect to the actual vote tallies being potentially tampered with. Because Trust !
Primaries are hard to poll because it's very hard to know who will turn out in a given primary. Figuring out who is going to bother to vote is also hard in a general, but it's much harder in a primary.
Why were the polls so bad?!
Because all polls are always bad.
Polling is an inexact science with an extremely outsized opinion of itself.
Polling is a fixed game with a built-in slant of its own choice with leading/loaded questions or no choices which reflect thought/POV they don't want included.
What an interesting game it is. The only way to win is not to play.
The only way any reasonable person should respond to a pollster is to walk away.
Millions of Turkeys gobble out in despair as they see their hopes and dreams destroyed by the machine.
Some flightless birds were also disappointed in the result.
Huh. Hong said something I agree with. The death of Ruiz was indeed a "state-sanctioned execution".
Think how much trouble the world would have been saved if the home residents in George Floyd's armed home robbery had used their state-sanctioned right to execute him on the spot.
WKRP references are welcome.
The cynic in me suggests that the vote snafu was a deliberate operation to ensure Crowley could overcome whatever small margin Hong ended with, if she did end up ahead. I quit following when she got a 300 vote lead last night but was unsurprised to find Crowley ahead and also unsurprised there was some sort of vote snafu in Milwaukee at the last minute.
Watching the Socialists get steamrolled by the party is highly entertaining. Bernie nods in solidarity.
"The polls inspired a lot of people to attack Hong, making her look unusually foolish"
Yeah, by pointing out things Hong actually said or wrote.
Achilles writes "And Milwaukee County waited until Dane County reported before deciding how many votes they needed."
True in this case or not, this gets to an absolutely basic bit of election security. NO JURISDICTION'S VOTE NUMBERS SHOULD BE REPORTED BEFORE ALL JURISDICTIONS HAVE FINALIZED THEIR VOTE COUNTS.
WHAT FRED SAID.
Meanwhile, Minnesota elected their nutjob for the Senate.
From DSA strategist Hasan Piker;
“I don't give a f*** what Black people care about.”
“Let's go back to a better time, when lynchings were happening.”
__________________
If black voters wonder whether they are being taken for granted by the Democrat Party, I think the answer is plain. Will Democrat nominees who fail to adequately distance themselves from Piker discover what it’s like to ein an election without black votes? We shall see.
Hong on her own petard.
The Professor’s analysis is overly kind to Democrats and overly suspicious of Republicans. The DSA is the future of the Democrats.
Just a thought or two: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/08/12/surprise-defeat-for-dsa-communist-francesca-hong-in-wisconsin/#more-286009
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/07/03/james-clyburn-visits-10-key-precincts-for-ballot-collection-in-three-wisconsin-cities-madison-milwaukee-beloit-and-no-one-notices/
Last week, Godfather Obama paid a visit to el Sayed. Watch for a personality transplant....
Polls are getting worse. They used to be good at predicting; then they began to be "wrong within the margin of error," that is off by 3 to 5 %; now when a DSA candidate is involved they favor that candidate and are off by 10 to 15%. That's not just because a large group won't answer their questions. It's not even because another group of unknown size is deliberately lying and supporting Dem wingnuts. Both these factors have existed since Rush Limbaugh was alive. And pollsters ought to be able to handle them. But the huge errors in polling when DSA is involved say "Commie" to me. The DSA-favoring pollsters, like their Moscow counterparts during the Cold War, simply cannot tell their bosses any hard truths. They turn in false results - assuming they phoned anyone. Think Jason Arday: "I thought you would just believe me." He could probably get a job in polling now that being a top academic is out. Or, as an anchor on ABC. Or, I know, he could report on the WNBA and its expansion team, the Nashville Balls and the new stars, Royce, and the other one. I totally support these women who seem to know exactly what they are dong and how to go about dong it. I hope they get drafted and get excellent salaries, though I think the League will dissolve very shortly after.
Was Francesca conceited and Hong on her own petard or a victim of Democratic gerrymandering with equivocal inclusion?
@Aggie, I work elections in Kentucky where we use usb drives to capture the tabulations from ballot scanners and, trust me, you do not want to make the shut down process any more technically difficult for the people doing the work than necessary. Also, be careful of opening up too many options because you can create a situation where it becomes easier to manipulate the results in order to capture the meta data. In the case of our scanners, the information on the usb is also printed long form and set in (I suspect this is how they figured out the sticks in WI had audit logs instead). In fact, it would be better to make the process as simple and with as few options as possible.
'...In fact, it would be better to make the process as simple and with as few options as possible....'
I agree 1000%, which is why I say: Paper ballots, kept for at least 5 years for audits, invisibly - inked fingers, ink visible under a specialized wavelength light, Photo ID needed in all cases in order to get a ballot, absentee ballots given out on strictly-needed purposes only, results only disclosed once all votes are in and tabulated.
Simple.
Big Mike,
I hate to be fair to Hasan Piker
that prick!
but, in all fairness, those clips are deceptive
i’m beginning to realize a lot of these stupid boomers don’t realize that im responding to moronic comments on most of these. half of these are comments i’m arguing against that im reading from the chat lmao
So these are deceptive edits that are fooling people, I suspect.
On the other hand, this ain't no saving
this comment.
His hostility to the US Constitution is completely on board with his brand and the DSA. He's a vile dude.
What was truly amazing about Rush Limbaugh is that his opponents were constantly calling him "racist" and other vile things. And yet they never ever had a clip of him saying racist or vile things. This is a guy who spoke three hours a day, five days a week. And no fuck-ups that came back to bite him in the ass. Astounding.
And he shocks his dog for no reason.
The kids don't like Hasan Piker, either!
Hasan Piker's Dog Shock Collar Controversy, Explained
Piker interviewed Bernie and AOC on their "Fighting Oligarchy" tour. And the NYT gave him all these puff pieces in their newspaper back in April.
And now the Republicans are weaponizing him and using clips from his stream. He's obviously radioactive, and you won't see AOC with him ever again.
If you want to beat El-Sayed in Michigan, ask him about his ties to Hasan Piker, that 9-11 supporter, and wiping his ass with the U.S. Constitution.
I saw the original clip. Piker reached forward on his desk and pressed something with his right hand, and the dog immediately yelped and laid back down. It was a shock collar. Having an air tag locator on a collar doesn't prove that the dog isn't wearing a shock collar. When a dog yelps in pain, it's instinct isn't to immediately lay down - unless it's been punished before and is responding to a corrective shock.
Piker is a very apt name for this loudmouth. He curates every aspect of his public-facing images, including the room around him. He's a wealthy trust fund baby spouting communism. He's the definition of a lightweight. In any fair contest, he would fold like a paper bag, which is why all of his public appearances are either alone, spouting, or in a friendly crowd. Once you understand that, his rhetoric falls into category.
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