26 మే, 2026
"When scientists try to model how hot Earth could get this century, they typically look at a range of possibilities..."
"... for how much planet-warming pollution humans might pump into the atmosphere. These scenarios get updated every seven years or so.
In this latest update, the researchers abandoned a dire — and often criticized — high-emissions scenario known as RCP8.5 that has been prominently cited in thousands of climate studies over the past decade. The authors said the scenario was now 'implausible' given recent energy trends.... For years, critics of the high-emissions scenario had argued that it was always unrealistic, in part because it envisioned that countries would burn coal at absurdly high rates. They argued that any studies or news reports relying on that scenario exaggerated the risks of climate change. Why, those critics now asked, did the course correction take so long?..."
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59 కామెంట్లు:
How inconvenient.
Another sterling example of “Settled Science” , AKA the Climate Hoax.
An episode... another episode of The Outer Limits.
"Why, those critics now asked, did the course correction take so long?..."
For one thing, we needed to get close enough to legislated Net Zero deadlines with no real hope of being able to supply the needed amount of power to run modern civilization before alarmists would even begin to question their climate catastrophe religion hysteria.
And, of course, many in government are hesitant to give up even a tiny bit of the control that "Global Cooling/Global Warming/Climate Change" has permitted them to exercise.
It is unlikely that this will knock the Net Zero religion into a cocked hat, where it belongs. But that would be a big help for Europe and Canada.
Just a few weeks ago I read something about Al Gore -- remember him? -- and he was worried about an ice age in 25 years or so. I guess due to "global warming" accelerating the normal glacial cycles.
" . . . raises questions about whether some risks have been overstated."
Questions? Seriously? There is no question that RCP8.5 grossly, ridiculously overstated the dangers of global warming, as has almost every climate-change spokesman, from Al Gore to Joe Biden.
So we now have children who are being frightened by teachers who threaten them with climate boogie-men, to the point where they've utterly lost faith in the future, despite the fact that they're living in the materially-best world that has ever existed. That's a big part of why they aren't reproducing themselves.
Climate change has always been occurring. And there are plenty of reasons to believe that human industrial activity is a significant causal factor. This has given schemers an opening to pursue money and power by exaggerating the timeline and likely effects. Lonborg got it right.
The alarmists are losing the struggle for public opinion. People just don’t care as much as they did 10 years ago. If they want to improve their situation, they need to deal with all their failed predictions.
The de-industrialization prompted by Net Zero has led to an industrial proletariat with no industry. So they end up doing fentanyl and living in tents on urban sidewalks. There is a lot we can blame on Climate Change, or rather the threat of Climate Change.
Ampersand said...Climate change has always been occurring. And there are plenty of reasons to believe that human industrial activity is a…factor.
FIFY
"It is unlikely that this will knock the Net Zero religion into a cocked hat, where it belongs."
Probably not, but it's possible that at least some of those alarmists would rather be perceived to be located some distance from the craziness they've cultivated when the power goes out in the winter, the wind's not blowing, the sun's not shining and the freezing villagers start rounding up torches and pitchforks.
Libtards are amazing. Its crazy the way they just jump from one "cause" to the next, and then forget about the thing that was "THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THE WORLD!" . How much ink was wasted over Climate Change. Didnt it make Al Gore a billionarie? Or was that Vodka.
You see the same thing with the warmongers and world crusaders. One minute we must save Ukraine and spend $zillions and risk WW3 because the "Next Hitler" is going to Conquer the world. Then a couple years go by and its "Ukraine? Whats that?"
Climate change is an actual cult.
Only retards still listen to this crap and give it any predictive value.
Follow the money. Politicians aren't the only ones who can be bought off.
Out-of-frame speculation and modeling is incongruent with observation upon close and repeated inspection.
Yes it 'raises questions', and those questions were being raised 20 years ago when this nonsense was started, but the nonsense wheel was a big one, with lots of effort poured into rolling it, and it steamrolled right over a bunch of concerned, classically trained climate scientists, and in its wake came the attacks, persecution, de-funding, and personal cancelling. These caused a lot of them to give up and some of them to leave climate science entirely, because it had become a toxic hellscape.
Gosh, I wonder where all the logical, skeptical, challenging credentialed dissenters went to, the ones that kept demanding proof and scientific methods? I guess they were raising the wrong questions.
Meanwhile Dr. Michael Mann waved his hockey stick around and sued anybody that dared to question the provenance of his data and his calculation methods, driving one man into his grave. As the UN panel lapped up his bullsh*t and declared it solid gold fact.
Maybe these Climate Inquisitioners should just shut up now, unless they would like to line up to offer a little humble penitence. They've set actual Climate Science back a couple of decades with their manipulative dishonesty, to nobodys benefit except for the pocket-liners.
Meanwhile vegetation on Earth is reproductive forced by the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide in warm climates and anthropogenic intelligence is harvesting the benefits with a viable present and posterity.
Back behind the cave wall
It was always a socialist move and never meant to be taken seriously. I think some scientists noticed that the NYT has been calling for "blot out the sun" technology. And all the climate scientists went, "Holy shit, we need to dial this back. We're the authorities and the cult really believes what we say."
NYT: "What, you were faking it?"
Green Nude Eel Scientist: "Of course! What's the point of have an underground socialist network if you don't wait for our computers to spit out a false prediction?"
NYT: "We thought it was an emergency."
Green Nude Eel Scientists: "It was a fucking scam for our socialist masters! Did you not get the memo?"
NYT: "What memo? We've been hard at work doing a rewrite of our past. 1619 project. You're in charge of scare-mongering the future."
Green Nude Eel Scientist: "Do not blot out the sun, you dumb fucks."
NYT: "Okay, okay. Obviously our messaging needs a little work. The couriers are slow."
Green Nude Eel Scientist: Damn couriers take forever. We ought to go back to pigeons. Why are you in a bunker, anyway?"
NYT: "The fucking kids are driving us crazy. It's blue on blue civil war in our cafeteria."
Green Nude Eel Scientist: "Next 5 year plan, we cut back on Ivy League pay-outs."
NYT: "Can we turn on the AC?"
Green Nude Eel Scientist: "Of course you can turn on the AC."
NYT: "That might help. What about ice cubes?"
Green Nude Eel Scientist: "Ice cubes are fine. Man, you really drank the Kool-Aid."
NYT: "And it sucks without ice cubes."
If your research didn't show scary outcomes, you didn't get funded.
the decision to back away from a worst-case outlook raises questions about whether some risks have been overstated" (NYT).
It does not raise questions, it answers them.
CAGW is the biggest scam in the history of the world.
Google wants to build a giant data center near Lincoln. It would be powered by natgas turbines. But since natgas turbines emit carbon dioxide, the plan is to build a pipeline to transport the carbon dioxide somewhere to sequester it underground. Absurd. Ridiculous. Expensive.
People believe what they want to believe and this new development won’t change Google’s mind or that of the Greens. It’s their religion.
".. Why, those critics now asked, did the course correction take so long?..."
BECAUSE, the Powers That Be didn't have AI until recently..
NOW they WILL be burning coal at absurdly high rates.
Coal is NOW COOL.. So is Nuclear Power.. so is Natural Gas*
Climate Change Hysteria has been completely replaced by AI mania.
Natural Gas* of COURSE it's cool.. it's NATURAL!
A lot of the "right" people got very rich on this. It was first and foremost always about the money/grift'
NYT: "The fucking kids are driving us crazy. It's blue on blue civil war in our cafeteria."
The urbane heat island is a well-established first-order forcing of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change.
So the NYT is trying to gently back away from the scam they loudly proclaimed for the last 50 years.
Cool.
The grift must be drying up.
Oh, PoO!!!
"the decision to back away from a worst-case outlook raises questions about whether some risks have been overstated" ... no shit.
There is no 'question'... it has always been overstated.
"raises questions about whether some risks have been overstated" (NYT)."
OK, literal laugh out loud moment there.
I think this is what's called the climb down.
https://share.google/Kp8vHS6N2USS3eGvH
Pam bondi has been recovering from thyroid cancer after the atty general
Why, those critics now asked, did the course correction take so long?
@Althouse, because the scientists were paid to keep the junk science going. I’m not saying that they were directly bribed, but it was quickly clear that no one doing meteorology or climatology research wss going to see a dime of grant money unless they joined in on pushing the junk science. Integrity vs. grant money — no contest. They’ve been pushing this since 1987 — 39 years if you aren’t a mathematician.
Does NOAA still throw away the measured data and retain the “adjusted” data? That’s sort of a clue. When you’re doing real science you adjust your mathematical models to better fit the data, not adjust the data to fit the models.
The combination of scientists looking for attention and professional rewards and credulous media eager to sensationalize is a toxic brew, which could lead to THE EXTINCTION OF EVERY HUMAN ON EARTH. In these fraught times, bold action is required. We must burn the witch. By the witch, I mean Al Gore. And by burn, I mean set fire to.
The money supply has dried up and the left has returned to its routine circularly firing squad, so the message must shift. Also no more:
- Mann Hockey Stick graphs that are mathematically impossible and that predict the world's destruction based on a single tree in Yamal, Siberia.
- Al Gore inconvenient falsehoods such as impossible twin Atlantic cyclones in the ads for the "award winning" and then banned for misinformation film "An Inconvenient Truth"
- Accidental UN "typos" about glaciers melting by the year 2035 when they ackshully meant 2350.
- Money to put Greta out as Joan of Arc, per revelations of her blue octopus and protest for Israel's destruction.
Socialist Europe has no AC.
"We don't need AC. We're saving the planet."
Socialist Europe has more heat deaths in the summer than the USA has gun deaths. Every year this happens.
Gun death? Horrific tragedy, vote socialism now.
Heat death? Nothing we can do about it, go green. Maybe we can blot out the sun. We're working on it.
Of course risks are overstated. That keeps that sweet government money flowing in, and bumps up private donations as well.
The steps for a successful multi-decade career in demagogic politics:
1. Find a topic that sparks fear and gins up voters.
2. Raise private and corporate donations on that topic.
3. Get elected and talk about "taking action" for an unsolvable, ambiguous, multi-factor issue.
4. Pass feel-good laws that leave open loopholes for future "It's worse than we thought" revelations -- provide special cut-outs for donors.
5. Coordinate with donors (Bloomberg | Gates) news and academic sources to pubish "It's worse than we thought" stories.
6. Repeat for the next election.
Imagine if there was a profession, and a societal institution, whose goal, duty and obligation was to fearlessly pursue and publish the truth about things, to ask hard questions, investigate scams, confront the powerful, expose fraud, and educate the public. A massive scam like this would never get off the ground.
I wonder why we don't have an institution like that.
Somebody should start one. I can think of some clever mission statements: "All the News That's Fit to Print"; "Democracy Dies in Darkness."
Climate change is a scam
"...how much planet-warming pollution humans might pump into the atmosphere"
You see this kind of phrase in most climate journalism. It makes it sound like we have tank full of pollution and for no good reason we're pumping out this tank and filling up the atmosphere with the stuff.
Scientists are not, and never were, made up of finer clay than the rest of us. They're just as susceptible to injecting bias at every step of the research process.
I was actually a bit surprised back in the '90s when the bulk of my fellow archaeologists went along with the CAGW scam. After all, we've spent the last 100+ years observing how much and how often the climate has changed in the past, and how difficult it is to get really accurate reconstructions of even regional climate conditions. But then the CAGW's came along and said "Hey, we've got this nailed down to a couple tenths of a degree for the whole planet over the last 30,000 years!" and they all just nodded like a bunch of bobbing-head dogs.
And in another 10 years the CAGW's will change all their tunes and then smugly say "This is exactly how science is supposed to work, by self-correcting."
Apparently, it got warm in the UK so now it's global warming again. Not only that, some people were stuck on a rollercoaster in 35 degrees C heat (!) the 33 degree record in....1944. But they didn't have rollercoasters back then.
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
"What will be, will be" really translates from Spanish as "lo que será, será." Sung by Doris Day, it was in the 1956 Alfred Hitchcock film, "The Man Who Knew Too Much."
But someone has been lying about climate change for ev-va-va-ver. Man is the cause of climate change because we cannot know what the future will bring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtW2rrLHs08
Does NOAA still throw away the measured data and retain the “adjusted” data? That’s sort of a clue. When you’re doing real science you adjust your mathematical models to better fit the data, not adjust the data to fit the models.
Don't know about NOAA, but the meteorological agency of Australia erased their database of actual measurements going back to the 1800s and replaced them with "calibrated" adjustments, supposedly to account for the heat island effect seen with increasing urbanization in modern times. Except that, whoops, all the "calibrations" made the old measurements seem cooler and the new measurements seem hotter, which is exactly the opposite direction of a valid correction for the heat-island effect.
Our scientific establishments have been deeply corrupted by the trillions of dollars that governments have been sloshing around, but only for studies that manufacture justifications for jacking up taxes, and robbing us of our liberty and autonomy, and facilitating permanent managerial-state soft tyranny by unelected bureaucrats along the lines of the European Commission. And it's not just the money that corrupts, it's their own ideology too. Lots of academics are fans of the various flavors of collectivism and would be quite happy living on a gulag planet under a socialist one-world government.
How could it be politicized? It’s sCieNcE!
“We have to get rid of that warm blip in the forties.”
Cold kills more people than heat every single year.
Tcross nails it in the first comment. Better title for this story? “An Inconvenient Truth.”
It would be funny if, after the global warming gang was discredited, data centers really did raise the earth's temperature. Well not funny exactly, ironic maybe.
Looks like it is time to move on to the next lucrative grift.
They overstated it because that's where the money is (was), not so much under the Trump administration. I think they fear a "truth in advertising" lawsuit brought by the Justice department.
Not a single prediction by Al Gore came true. NOT. A. ONE. But those that didn't bend a knee to that grifter's fiction were called deniers.
It's like the reverse of the purported "communists in government" scare. That was pumelled for decades.
But it turns out there were high-ranking communists all over government, in the highest positions.
Amnesia. Now it's the Chinese.
Nobody is paying attention, because the facts come from people who are shunned from society. Some diversity we have created. Too bad it doesn't apply to half of us.
Also, if I were an HVAC guy, I would move to Europe and make a bundle.
At some point you just can't keep making up numbers, you can only do so much history revising. Big gaps in models still exist, they can't deal with clouds and their impact on climate, for instance. I read recently that the models have not been adjusted for the greening effect, visible and trackable through satellite imagery, the extra CO2 generates.
Every issue is an existential crisis if it can be used to capture vast sums of taxpayer money and expand a political power base.
When/if it can no longer do these things a new existential crisis will be found.
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