Search crews spread through the Texas Hill County on Wednesday morning with a grim mission, seeking signs of the scores of people missing from devastating floods that struck the region nearly a week ago, killing at least 111.
Gov. Greg Abbott revealed late Tuesday that at least 173 people remained missing — the first time state officials have identified just how widespread the human toll might eventually be....
९ जुलै, २०२५
"The primary job right now continues to be locating everybody... We will not stop until we identify, recover every single body."
Said Gov. Greg Abbott, quoted in "At Least 173 People Are Still Missing After Texas Floods/Officials said the search for remains would continue until all the victims have been accounted for. In the hardest-hit county, no survivors have been found since Friday" (NYT)."
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This is an amazing video of the Guadalupe River. It goes from mostly dry riverbed to overflowing its banks in under a minute. Within minutes, you can't tell where the river used to be.
The video is from a bridge high above the river and within 20 minutes, debris is being pushed over the railings.
A flash flood (i.e. impulse event) in an area with catastrophic but rare occurrence, and a history of false positive predictions to harden people's resolve (the "boy who cried wolf" effect).
No mention of reports of Blue Rain?
Watching the coverage you see a lot of the loss came from camp sites which were extra full bc of the holiday weekend. I gather a lot of folks were from out of town and not familiar with how dangerous flash flooding is in the HillCountry. Gully washers is what they call them. I’ve crossed those rivers Llano, Guadalupe and Frio and they never had more than a spit of water in them it’s so dry down there. But even then 4 months of rain in 4 hrs at night is damn near impossible to flee from. It’s honestly a miracle more didn’t get swept away. It’s horrifyingly awesome the power of nature.
The best mitigation measure is preventative. That didn't work in New Orleans. It didn't work in LA, Maui, etc. It would likely be a cumbersome choice in areas with cyclones, quakes, etc. In the meantime, offer closure, first, perform an audit and accountability where it is due, and acknowledge the risk and review mitigation strategies and tactics.
"The video is from a bridge high above the river and within 20 minutes, debris is being pushed over the railings."
I wonder how many of the missing were once standing on bridges capturing video like that.
I've seen video of people standing at the water's edge, backing up a few steps intermittently.
I realized this morning that everyone is talking about this flood warning thing in a vacuum, as if it’s the only thing Texas had to worry about .
As if in the last 4 years Texas wasn’t contending with inflation, with the illegal invasion, with the lawfare against their efforts to deal with the illegal invasion, with BLM crap in their cities, with trans lawfare, with deliberate federal policy to destroy the domestic fossil fuel industry, and all the rest.
Someone needs to do a Mastercard ad listing all the costs of the above, followed by “flood warning system: Priceless. But we didn’t even have that left over.”
RR
JSM
The NOAA river gauges tell the story. West of Hunt, the North Fork of the Guadalupe started rising at 01:30 and peaked at 05:30. There are no gauges on the South Fork, which joins in Hunt. Camp Mystic is on the South Fork, and the reports from the camp say that water was coming into the camp from both directions.
Downstream in Hunt, the water began rising around 02:00 and peaked at 05:30. Further downstream in Kerrville, the water began rising after 05:00, and peaked at 06:45. And about 10 miles further downstream in Center Point, the site of @tim maguire's video, the river began rising at 05:00 and peaked at 07:30.
NOAA only installs gauges where there is live water flow - not in dry gullies. With no gauges above the camps, there was no early warning possible. If there had been a network of sirens, that kind of system could have worked, but what would have triggered them for the headwaters? The camps were in the hills - and the historical records don't reflect a 15 - 20" rainfall event.
Anyway it seems obvious in hindsight that a short-notice evacuation plan needs to be put together and implemented, and sirens are probably the most effective notification method.
Tim Maguire at 801 - Thanks for posting the link to the video. Watched all 37 minutes. I am on vacation. Nature is beautiful and powerful. Seeing the floating house at the 35 minute mark made me think of The Wizard of Oz. Did that bridge survive? Did it wash out? Did any bridge get destroyed?
I see the NYT has classified their coverage as a 'Level 6' event. This classification is made because it's the 6th paragraph down, where they start rooting around for political capital - blaming politicians, or insinuating they are being craven, bone-headed, uncaring rubes. You really cannot muster enough disgust for these snot-filled dirt bags. More 'missing' than 'counted dead', and the NYT wants to go directly to gaming the next election results.
"Did any bridge get destroyed?"
I did see one video of a bridge getting swept away. It was an old one with the road to it blocked by Jersey barriers, so at least there wasn't any cars on it when it failed.
I hope others watch that video linked above. It is long, but you don’t need to watch it long. It begins as the first “wave” starts to come along increasing water depth a few inches. At the start of the video, one could have stood the middle of the river bed, as if standing on the shoreline of a beach as the remnants of a crashed wave washed over their feet. Within one minute, you see the first trees barreling down the water way.
For those squawking about “need for modern sophisticated warning systems”, note the video is taken by a person holding a camera (not a remote system). The people are filming knowing the flood is coming, because they received a warning. Even though they thought they were safe on the bridge, within 20 minutes debris is now building along the edge of the bridge’s road. At 35 minutes, a house floating higher than the bridge is about to strike it. These people had warnings, but they didn’t expect what happened within the first 30 minutes of personally witnessing the threat.
If you look at it historically, North America is routinely beset with violent weather, with most of it hitting the US. This came clear a few years ago when the National Geographic published a world tornado map. World tornados were 95% between the Rockies and the Alleghenies. This disaster is only a couple of hundred miles from the country's worst weather disaster: The 1900 Hurricane the hit Galveston.
You know what would help find people in future disasters?
Tag everybody like a dog. Just putting it out there.
Never let a crisis go to waste.
LVB at 1037. I would be ok with 100% tagging requirment. I can make a conservative (safety/law and order) argument. However, I know many consevatives and liberals would be against.
Wouldn't it be easier to have a Democrat judge issue an injunction against flash floods?
Our cable TV feed was just interrupted so the NWS could issue a flash flood warning for a neighboring county. This happens nearly every single time there is a thunderstorm. Nearly. Every. Single. Time.
In this case the storm is predicted to drop about 1/2 inch of precipitation. That’s enough to make the azaleas and rose bushes (and weeds, dammit) grow but how dangerous really?
So, yeah, Boy Who Cried Wolf.
"but how dangerous really?"
If they issue an alert and nothing happens, well- nothing happens. If they don't and something does happen...
"If it saves just one life" seems to be where we are right now.
Wouldn't it be easier to have a Democrat judge issue an injunction against flash floods?
The controlling supreme authority over floods is beyond the US court of appeals jurisdiction. Just saying.
We just go another thunderstorm/flash flood warning interrupting our cable TV show. It was a warning “until 6:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time.” It was broadcast at 6:39 PM.
CNN was just claiming Kristi Noem was slow to declare an emergency. They are saying procedure was changed so an emergency can only be declared if she signs off on it. All FEMA does is cut checks to locals. A day or two makes no diff to the outcome but any little thing they can find they’ll use it.
"All FEMA does is cut checks to locals."
Even if they have Trump signs in front of their houses?
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