२ नोव्हेंबर, २०२४
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११६ टिप्पण्या:
Yesterday I posted about my reading of the book Frankenstein by Marry Shelley. I never in my wildest dreams thought that something from Tucker Carlson would top that, even with all of its nightmares. But here it is. At some point you have to say that Trump and his supporters like Carlson are so delusional that they are even more surreal than Frankenstein. God help them. And us.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/tucker-carlson-demon-attack
My cell phone alter ego Khin received this text today: Hi KHIN! I'm Laurie, a volunteer w/ People Power United. Our Post Election Movement Call to go over next steps is soon. We know election stakes are high and we need to be ready - no matter the outcome. Join 100+ progressives to "Make Meaning of the Moment" after Election Day. The event will be on Thurs, 11/7 at 8pm and we would love to see you there! Will you join us? - RR PAC
…next steps on Thursday sounds like first, they’re confident we’ll have a result on Thursday and does it sound like a victory party or they’re planning to do what they accuse Trump supporters of doing?
You pointed to a Guardian story that is only about Tucker Carlson. but would like everybody to believe that, by association, we should think that Trump is deluded, as are 'his supporters'.
I know other people that are not capable of critical or logical thinking too, and they have *ssholes - therefore, you're included, as an *sshole, too. See ? That whole 'not thinking too hard' thing - It can work both ways !
You root for the demon party bathing in infants blood but you be you
Who is this UK idiot linking to the Guardian? I heard they brought a bunch of Labor over here to try to influence our elections. Good thing they're in hiding. Be a shame if somebody musket-ed them.
They seem to think you're their kind of guy. Judging from your comments here, that's not much of a surprise. Please, do go to their riot planning party so we can arrest you too.
Althouse herself has linked to articles from The Guardian.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
“Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support
from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice.”
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.”
Peanut the Squirrel is the latest October surprise!
Could be
It’s isn’t me it’s ‘Khin’…
Why is Kamala doing a rally in Tampa FL today?
If Trump wins I think we are watching the rise of the first female President in 8-12 years. Maybe 4. We'll see how Vance does.
“Predictions are hard, especially about the future.”
Noted pollster Yogi Berra
That's not the flex you think it is, Inga.
I disagree with 90 percent of everything that Inga posts here, but I'm glad that Althouse allows her to post her comments here, unlike most conservative "always Trump" blogs who would censor her. I live in Iowa. I have lived here most of my life. This is a serious poll from the Des Moines, Iowa, Register newspaper. For those of you who don't live here, let me tell you about Iowa. We are as red as a bag of O Negative Blood (my type, as a universal donor, so everyone wants my blood.) Republicans control everything in Iowa. We control the Governor, the House of Representatives, the Senate, every Judge on the Iowa Supreme Court, every executive position but for state Auditor, and virtually every other state, county, and city political office. You can't get more red than Iowa. So the fact that Harris is leading Trump in bright red Iowa is a big deal. Will this lead to Harris winning Iowa? Who knows? I still doubt it. But this is certainly newsworthy.
So what makes you think he wasn't attacked by a demon? More believable then E Jean Carroll being attacked by Donald Trump in a NY department store.
Don't you believe in demons? I'm open minded on the subject. My Roman Catholic wife knows they're real, as do all the Catholics I know personally. Note- I didn't say believes they are real, I said knows they are real.
Trump beat Biden by 8 percentage points in 2020. Iowa is not in play and will solidly vote for Donald Trump.
Nobody wants Inga censored. She has a right to come here and post the most idiotic posts imaginable and we enjoy her doing it. Nobody that I've seen has even suggested that she be censored in any way.
This is America. You have the absolute right to be a dumb ass here.
Trump's policies will not bind either political party in the US. A good reason why is because Trump supporters never really cared about what his policies were, except for bans on abortion, which are already being unraveled and will continue to be. Republicans understand there is 2-1 opposition to abortion bans and have been paying the price since Roe v. Wade was struck down.
Trade tariffs will continue against China for the foreseeable future as China is structurally committed to dumping EVs, chips, batteries, solar panels, steel, aluminum and a few other products as they produce way more than domestic demand and there is no political courage to reduce overproduction, as that would create even more problems for the Chinese economy. The only way to combat this problem is with prohibitive tariffs. But beyond China, there isn't any fuel for more tariffs.
Perhaps the most ironic aspect of Trump losing next week will be that a sensible bi-partisan bill to address the problems of illegal immigration along the southern border will finally be passed. Trump's policies to address this issue were a fiasco, and he never came up with or implemented a sensible plan to help prevent illegal immigrants from crossing into the US from Mexico. And he killed the bi-partisan plan that was set to be passed last summer so he could use the border as a political issue in his campaign.
And Trump's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans will expire and there is no momentum for continuing them. Harris favors raising taxes on those making over $400k/year and providing tax cuts for the middle class.
Lastly, there is little support for Trump's foreign policy of breaking with allies and NATO and cozying up with dictators like Putin, Kim Jong on, and Victor Orban. Many Republicans have been uncomfortable with Trump's unholy alliance with Putin (although many others share it), and on-going revelations will likely be embarrassing and politically damaging for those who share Trump's view.
The latest Emerson poll has Trump +10.5 in Iowa.
The Democrats murdered P'nut, just like they tried to murder Donald Trump.
JUSTICE FOR P'NUT!
Lt.Colonel, narciso! The fat fuck can’t be phished, he’s gotta be harpooned.
Tucker has to somehow explain the scratches and such to his wife.
She's in North Carolina, where they feel the need to continue campaigning because Trump is leading there.
Inga has gotten into the wine cabinet again.
↖️ “Althouse herself has linked to articles from The Guardian.”
And?
↖️ “Greetings, my friend. We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. And remember, my friend: Future events such as these will affect you in the future.”
—— Criswell
↖️ Poor dear…
Three options here:
1. Selzer is right and Harris wins in a massive landslide
2. This poll is just a bad poll (it happens, but it happens to Selzer less than others)
3. Harris isn’t really winning Iowa but the poll is capturing late stage momentum that bodes well for WI,MI,PA
/Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how. The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice/
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
How many illegals entered during Trump’s time vs. Biden’s? You’re completely removed from the most basic, verifiable, reality.
delusional that they are even more surreal than Frankenstein.
The guy who compares his finger cut to an assassination attempt calls other people delusional. Got it.
Meanwhile the case against daniel penny just went poof
Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
About as good as any pollster gets.
Selzer is not immune to the occasional outlier, which this may very well be. But it’s hard to view this as anything other than superb news for Harris, at least in the crucial Midwest.
Does a “late surge” of women who care about abortion sound remotely plausible? They were MAGA until last week!
So the fact that Harris is leading Trump in bright red Iowa is a big deal.
It's not a fact. It's one poll. And it's so far out-of-line with every other poll, only a fool would take it seriously.
“You have the absolute right to be a dumb ass here.”
And you do it very well. Tell the FBI if they’re reading, how you plan to line up your political opponents up against the wall and shoot them, as you’ve now said several times. However, I think you’re nothing more that a paid agitator probably out of some foreign influence operation, OR you could simply be one of the biggest and stupidest Trumpists here.
The New York Times leading story on their website on the Saturday night before a Tuesday election has this headline:
"Why Are Democrats Having Such A Hard Time Beating Donald Trump"
The NY Times believes that it's Trump they can't beat.
But it isn't.
Democrats aren't liked. They are a bunch of elite aholes. Their policies fail and lead to economic turmoil for everyday Americans, who are literally scratching from paycheck to paycheck just to pay for groceries for their kids. They're destroying America one institution after the other, starting with our schools.
But the NY Times wants to know what's so special about Donald Trump.
HEY IDIOTS: IT'S ABOUT THE NAIL.
Donald Trump is a vessel. After him, there will be a new vessel (you won't be around to see that.)
“Tucker has to somehow explain the scratches and such to his wife.”
Maybe it was Daddy Demon spanking him because he was a baaaad boy.👹
https://fortune.com/2024/11/02/election-odds-donald-trump-lead-kamala-harris-madison-square-garden-rally-electoral-votes/
“October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist.”
“Donald Trump is suffering an historic descent in the campaign’s final days, an ongoing freefall that’s turning what looked like a walkaway for the former president into what’s most likely a Kamala Harris victory. That’s the view from Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, whose proprietary model’s proven right-on in past elections.“
The “love fest”!
I’ll just drop this little reminder here that Iowa is the state where Kamala threw in the towel for her Presidential aspirations after doing so poorly with Dem voters there and garnering zero delegates.
I thought it was obvious I was talking about Tulsa Gabbard. One of the brilliant and competent crew Trump has surrounded himself with and will play a part in his administration. Wonder Woman joins the X men as Jordan Peterson puts it.
Sprezz, maybe Ivanka is the designated survivor. She’s being kept out of active involvement so that she cant be indicted by even the most ham-sandwich-jonesin’ grand jury. Then she can coordinate defensive efforts from the outside.
Kind of like young Michael Corleone being the “civilian.”
JSM
Hey Dickless, I mean Dixcus, shouldn't you be staging yourself in one of the swing state cities? Where are you planning to suicide-by-cop next week?
So many options for you: Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia...Make sure you pick wisely, so we can add your face to Mt. Rushmore expeditiously.
If voters believe that politics can be fair and for the common good, they will be less angry. If they think about policies instead of heroes and villains, they are more likely to treat both parties as legitimate. People need to believe that politics is not just about deciding who gets what, but making life better or worse for everyone, and that the outcome depends on their own choices.
It surely counts for something that, whatever the merchants of grievance pretend, voters’ choices do in fact make a difference. Politics is often denigrated as cynical and dirty, but as Obama argued in Chicago, it doesn’t have to be like that. Politics is a sublime human achievement. It enables complex societies to settle their differences and allocate scarce resources for the common good without resorting to violence. Compromise in politics creates the stability for people to be uncompromising in chasing their dreams.
The idea that the vote on November 5th could determine the path of history is the sort of grandiose claim you would expect from partisans trying to stir up their base. This time it might just be true.
What Tucker do? Did he put a woman in prison because her daughter didn't go to school while the daughter was receiving care in a hospital? Did he send the police and national guard to shoot residents with stinkballs for standing on their porch during covid? What was it that so frightened a sad lawyer in Iowa?
AA should blog on Richard Cash, subject of NYT obit. With degrees from Wisconsin-Madison and NYU. Credited with a treatment breakthrough reducing deaths from dehydration worldwide by 50 million.
“Harris takes lead over Trump in Iowa: Poll”
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Harris leads Trump among women independent voters by 28 points, 57 percent to 29 percent, while the GOP nominee was ahead by 10 points among independent men voters, 47 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll.”
The Hill
The “data scientist” bases his predictions on one, count ‘em, one, betting website. He was right in 2020. Not exactly Nostradamus.
Trump was the first female President…
I would love to see how conservative twitter melts down over this, but I'm not venturing into that dark corner of the internet.
Harris Will Make Surprise Appearance on ‘Saturday Night Live’ ~ NYT
Harris on SNL tonight is a bit like Trump on "Fox & Friends" this morning. Both are home team visits. The difference is that Harris' appearance will reach a much bigger audience.
“Why did he do that rally? Playing Dixie (twice), racism for Puerto Rico and black folks, the Samoan-Mslaysian/ low IQ thing (from the guy that gets excited about spanking teenage girls?“
Good question. Why did he make a fool out of himself “working” at McDonalds, trying to get into a garbage truck, fellating a microphone after having a temper tantrum on stage, etc, etc etc. why do his followers like this shit?
He was probably thinking that’s what his followers wanted, not even realizing that to the rest of the world it looked like a blast from the past, 1930’s.
So, Harris is going on SNL? After SNL said they would never (?) feature a candidate? Other than aging boomers like me, does anyone even watch SNL anymore? Can't manage flying to Joe Rogan? but fly to NYC for SNL? Gawd, I hate this woman. [Reluctantly filled in the bubble next to DJT name so that I could vote Against Lawfare and For 1A and 2A.} crossing fingers the hyperlink works.
B*tch Harris on SNL??
Please, May we have a moment of silence in memory of Peanut?
Did Tucker kill an innocent squirrel?
“Harris leads Trump among women independent voters by 28 points”
Seems unlikely. Other national polls generally have Trump leading with independent voters. What’s so special about Iowa?
Sorry, it was Hillary campaigning for Harris in Tampa. But same question: what was Hillary doing in Tampa campaigning for Harris today.
Emerson has a fresher Poll with Trump up by 9 in Iowa.
Whiskeybum - well, in a way. She actually quit in December 2019 before the Iowa caucus
LLR-democratical lonejustice: "I disagree with 90 percent of everything that Inga posts here...."
LOL!
Wink wink...
NBC(D) = friendly ass-kiss territory. Mainstream event.
On the other hand, Chism Strategies, who bills themselves as “helping elect Democrats and advancing Progressive causes” has Trump in a statistical tie wit Harris in Virginia in their final poll released today.
Don't forget about Fred the Raccoon.
This was interesting in the crosstabs:
Among men, the race is pretty similar to 2020 exit polls, a bit better for Harris than it was for Biden.
Women?
2020 (exit): 52 Biden 48 Trump
2024 (Selzer): 56 Harris 36 Trump
Also, Inga neglected to mention that the Iowa poll was based on 808 respondents and has a margin of error of 3.4%.
The Des Moines Register has an excellent track record but this one looks like an outlier to me.
So:
Harris says to Rogan Respect My Autoritah! You must come to me I will not go to Austin.
Harris says to SNL I'll redirect my airplaine and security detachment to be on your show unannounced.
Peanut and Fred, are dead, that is murderd, by agents of the government who where politically motivated.
The death of a creature should never be caused by partizan politics!
I see the crane is gone! I read that as, public exposure inspires the government to take action. So good on old Madison!
The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll is well respected in Iowa and is considered the gold standard for Iowa polls.. In 2020 it had Trump winning by 7 points and he won by 8. This is a shot across the bow that Trump could lose bigly as Iowa hasn’t been a battleground state for several years.
Independents are breaking toward Harris in Iowa -- other polls are saying the same in other, battleground states. Women 65+ are voting for Harris by a 2-1 margin. Iowa has a six-week abortion ban that was passed this summer, which is very restrictive compared to others.
Iowa is not a big state and has only 6 electoral votes. Both parties have not spent time or money there, so the results aren’t due to one campaign doing a lot more in Iowa than the other. And Iowa is 90% white.
So, if this poll is indicative of a trend across the country, and there are some signs in other polls that it is, then Trump will lose every battleground state and maybe some lean Republican states as well. It could be a blue wave.
The real Silent Majority clearing it's throat...
"I disagree with 90 percent of everything that Inga posts here...."
It’s that 10% you DO agree with that sinks your dingy, Sparky.
You know nothing of Iowa, man.
“It’s isn’t me it’s ‘Khin’…”
Damn… you got to keep your family in line. Teh gene pool ain’t always kind.
It speaks to how MUCH women despise Trump. American women, liberals, independents and even some Republican women wer not going to stand by and let this travesty of Trumpism get into power again. Women will save this country from Trump and Trumpism. I’ve long thought that these extremely close polls were inaccurate, being driven by partisan pollsters and skewing the actual true numbers. Real Clear Politics one of the worst poll aggregators. They’ve been obviously untrustworthy for at least a month to anyone paying close attention. On November 6th we’re going to hear Trumpublican men freaking out and blaming women for Trumps huge landslide loss. Oh what a fine day that will be, can’t wait.
Two, maybe three things jump out from Bich's list of final polls and results.
Predicting the Republican will win in Iowa is pretty safe.
In no case was the predicted GOP margin higher than the result.
The one really close race (Kim Reynolds election in 2018) was a really wild miss (5 percent) in the Democrats favor.
And the other big miss was Joni Ernst's Senate reelection in 2020, which was another election that polled much closer than it wound up finishing.
“YouGov polled seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – between October 25 - 31, 2024 for The Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
The polls show that among likely voters — defined as registered voters who have already voted, definitely will vote, or probably will vote and also voted in either the 2020 or 2022 election— Vice President Kamala Harris leads by small margins in Wisconsin (4 percentage points), Pennsylvania (+3), Michigan (+3), and Nevada (+1). Trump barely leads in North Carolina (+1) and Georgia (+1). Arizona is tied.”
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50856-its-a-close-race-in-battleground-states-new-timessay24-polling-finds
Trump’s new mantra: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and blow somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”
It would be great to hear that a LOT of men voted for Harris. I won’t begrudge men that satisfaction.
The Selzer story is not, necessarily, a Harris lead in Iowa.
It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.
Selzer Poll:
Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%
Senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%
97% of Dems support Harris, while only 89% of Republicans support Trump
My newer atomic clock stopped at 02:00 and apparently is going to wait an hour instead of going forward 11 hours. Good luck if you want to know what time it is in the meantime.
Hate supposedly never wins. But if Kamala wins I don’t see any other reason for Trump losing than hatred for him overcoming people’s rational capacities.
I’ve read that this cited Iowa poll severely over sampled college educated women. If most national polls have Trump ahead, how can this even be real? Keep Dreamcasting Igna, it’s over by 10pm Tuesday night.
No problem Jersey. Not much of a difference. The cackling, the lies, the hate of American citizens and threats of violence....Not much difference at all.
And as America falls, remember, she could have been saved if not for the unnatural hatred of the left for their own country and citizens, just to glue their right to murder babies right up to the day of birth.
I forgot to mention the drunkenness!! Neither can get through the day without at least a bottle of wine.
Lily Tang Williams
@Lily4Liberty
I am Lily Tang Williams. I was born in China to illiterate working-class parents, suffered under Mao’s Cultural Revolution and Communist dictatorship. I wanted freedom. America was my promised land.
I was 23 when I fled tyranny. Arriving with $100 in my pocket and knowing very little English. I worked hard to make my American dream come true. Today I am happily married with three children, have my own businesses, and live in the Granite State where the spirit of liberty resides. My concern is that my children and grandchildren will not have the same opportunities I had.
I see the shadow of authoritarianism cast by politicians who have locked us down, closed small businesses, inflated our money, and mortgaged our children’s future. I saw it all before in China: the division of society, silencing dissident voices, taking away parental rights, the indoctrination of youth, endless government mandates and control. People are losing their rights to make a living and make their own life choices. Are you worried yet? I am.
I fear that the country I love is becoming like the country I left. That is why I am running for Congress. It is time for the majority to speak up and defend our country from the radical left and keep the American Dream alive for our children.
My name is Lily Tang Williams, an American citizen by choice running for Congress in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District. Please donate, volunteer, and vote for me. I will be honored to represent and serve the people of New Hampshire.
https://lilytangwilliams.com/congress/donate/
ThePrimordialOrderedPair in reply to jb4. | November 2, 2024 at 5:16 pm
I’d rather be called “garbage” by a deranged retard than have his hands on my ass.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/11/biden-republicans-are-the-kinds-of-guys-you-like-to-smack-in-the-ass/
Meme of the week!!
https://www.bing.com/images/blob?bcid=skhXu1ciJbMHrI4Vssd07kdtKUgF.....4Q
Weak, pathetic Kamala was to 'fraidy scared to do the interview with Rogan but she had time to fly to her faithful fans at SNL to do a taping for all the Progressives in TV land. As everybody knows, SNL is a joke in itself, and by her going there instead of going where she would have to answer REAL questions, she just showed America how she will hide from Putin and Xi, because she isn't capable of being dog catcher, never mind President of the United States.
"I see the crane is gone! I read that as, public exposure inspires the government to take action. So good on old Madison!"
The last day when my photos show the crane is October 23. The first day when the photos show that the crane is gone is October 28.
Thanks for pointing that out!
Citizen Free Press
@CitizenFreePres
Joe Rogan gets Fetterman to admit the truth about the Border Bill.
It would have provided amnesty and voting rights to millions of Illegals.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1852969800701452455
Jersey Fled: Tampa is in Hillsborough County, a Democrat stronghold normally, and a bellwether county for national elections, but one surrounded by a whole lot of red voters outside the city and the county itself. They have a very strong and diverse Trump base there. So it’s sort of a mini-battleground.
George
@BehizyTweets
BREAKING: The entire Roanoke College women's swimming team just got on stage at Trump's rally in Virginia to endorse him and crush Democrats for forcing them to compete with men.
Their shirts were HILARIOUS, saying, "KEEP🥒OUT OF WOMEN'S SPORTS."😂
"We are so lucky to have a leader like Donald Trump with common sense who knows what a strong woman is and will fight for generations of girls to come."
This would not be possible without the amazing insult from Mark Cuban. Without his foolish statement, women wouldn't be motivated to stand for Trump.
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1852833869310927258
Kamala steals Trumps act once again....Doesn't have any thoughts of her own...ever.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14031677/kamala-harris-mirror-interview-donald-trump-similar.html
Mile wide, raindrop deep.
It's too late in the process anyway, but I'd like to see Trump hop around the stage to I'm Only Happy When It Rains (maybe with an Optimus painted silver on stage).
Good.
Maybe they were done with the job and it wsn't government action.
LOL
David Sacks
@DavidSacks
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Des Moines Register has a history of this, claiming the race was tied in 2020 when Trump won the state by 8 points. Back to the same playbook once again.
Selzer really put her name on the line here, dramatic stuff. The shift towards Harris in betting markets says it all.
It's extremely dry here in NJ. Brush fires popping up all over. Kids playing around with fireworks on Halloween set off a big one that threatened several homes and forced some to evacuate. Helicopter flying over our place for the past several days. We need rain.
All betting markets have Trump ahead by as little as 6 points and as much as 12. In none of this is Harris ever ahead.
"I’ve read that this cited Iowa poll severely over sampled college educated women."
You misspelled "credentialed".
Just sayin'.
“I thought it was obvious I was talking about Tulsa Gabbard.”
It was.
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